Christian McCaffrey accomplished a feat not seen in 17 years as he delivered a starring performance in the San Francisco 49ers' 31-14 road win against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
After being acquired in a trade from the Carolina Panthers less than two weeks ago, McCaffrey showed exactly why he is considered arguably the best running back of his generation.
Against the reigning champions, he became the first player since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2005 to score a rushing, receiving and passing touchdown in the same game.
His first score came through a trick play in the second quarter, as what appeared to be a regulation toss play to the right-hand side turned into a halfback pass as McCaffrey dialled up a 34-yard rainbow pass to Brandon Aiyuk in the end zone.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had his side leading 14-10 at half-time after a one-yard quarterback sneak for a touchdown and a 16-yard toss to Cooper Kupp, but McCaffrey put the 49ers ahead with a nine-yard touchdown catch late in the third period.
It was followed by a quick Rams punt, before McCaffrey put the exclamation point on his day by punching in a one-yard touchdown to begin the fourth quarter.
The 49ers offense fired on all cylinders, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo completing 21 of his 25 passes for two touchdowns and no turnovers, as Aiyuk and George Kittle also caught touchdown passes.
McCaffrey finished with 18 carries for 94 yards on the ground, eight catches for 55 yards through the air, and completed his only pass attempt for 34 yards.
King Henry continues to own the Texans
Tennessee Titans workhorse Derrick Henry was unstoppable against the Houston Texans, carrying the ball 32 times for 219 yards and two touchdowns in a grinding 17-10 win.
Incredibly, it is the fourth consecutive matchup against the Texans where Henry has posted at least 200 yards and two touchdowns, and the sixth total time of his career against all teams. No other player in the history of the league has more than three career games of at least 200 yards and multiple touchdowns.
With his second touchdown, Henry – who had such a significant workload due to rookie quarterback Malik Willis making his debut start in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill – broke the Titans' career touchdown record with his 75th.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel will miss Sunday’s game against NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams with a hamstring injury.
Samuel, a first team All-Pro selection in 2021, was injured in the 49ers’ 44-23 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. The dynamic playmaker played through the issue during the game, but did not practice at all this week.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan on Friday said he is hopeful Samuel can return for San Francisco’s November 13 game against the Los Angeles Chargers following a Week 9 bye.
"He's not good enough to go," Shanahan said. "The fact that he even had a chance hopefully means he'll be good with the week off and be ready for the next game."
Samuel has compiled 387 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 32 catches so far this season, while adding 138 rushing yards and a touchdown on 24 attempts.
His best performance in 2022 came against the Rams in Week 4, when the fourth-year pro had six receptions for 115 yards and contributed a 57-yard touchdown catch to the 49ers' 24-9 victory.
Including the 2021 NFC Championship Game, Samuel has amassed 621 yards from scrimmage with five total touchdowns in five meetings with the Rams dating back to Week 12 of the 2020 campaign. The 49ers won all four of the regular-season matchups between the teams during that stretch.
Shanahan added that fellow wide receiver Jauan Jennings will be listed as questionable for Sunday’s game due to a hamstring injury of his own.
Jennings ranks fourth among San Francisco players with 14 catches and 180 receiving yards in seven games this season.
The San Francisco 49ers are looking to continue their regular-season dominance over the Los Angeles Rams, and may need to lean on new running back Christian McCaffrey to help them do so.
San Francisco's trip to SoFi Stadium marks a critical game for these NFC West rivals, who have both struggled to produce their best this season.
After a bye week, the defending Super Bowl champion Rams are 3-3, while the 49ers are coming off back-to-back losses, which have dropped them to 3-4.
However, the 49ers have plenty of reason for confidence of getting back on track before their bye week against an opponent they defeated 24-9 in Week 4.
That victory made it seven straight regular-season wins over the Rams for the Niners, their second-longest streak against Los Angeles all-time (17 straight from December 1990 – December 1998).
But the 49ers will not have happy memories from their previous visit to Los Angeles, the Rams having prevailed 20-17 in last season's NFC Championship Game to book their place in the Super Bowl.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel played a critical role in that game and has been a key feature in the 49ers' success against the Rams.
Samuel has accounted for seven regular-season touchdowns in his career against the Rams (three receiving, three rushing, one passing) but will be unavailable for San Francisco this weekend due to a hamstring injury.
The loss of the best running wide receiver in the NFL may see greater onus placed on arguably the best receiving running back, with McCaffrey sure to be an integral part of the gameplan after the 49ers traded four draft picks to acquire him from the Carolina Panthers.
McCaffrey averaged 6.2 yards on his 10 touches in his debut against the Kansas City Chiefs and, though the 49ers will look for him to boost a run game that has a disappointing success rate of 33.7 per cent through seven weeks, the absence of Samuel and their underwhelming ground game could see San Francisco feature the former Panther heavily in the passing game.
San Francisco's 44-23 loss to the Chiefs last week marked the first time they have lost back-to-back games by at least 14 points since Weeks 9-10, 2020. They followed those games up with a 23-20 win against the Rams in Los Angeles.
The 49ers will look for a defensive upturn after their struggles against Kansas City, though defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans' group is still battling injuries in the front seven.
Holding the Rams in check will be critical to San Francisco's hopes of overcoming their absences. Los Angeles have scored at least 20 points in all three of their wins this season and 10 or fewer points in all three losses.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford's record against the 49ers should also offer optimism to Kyle Shanahan's team. Stafford is 1-6 in his regular-season career against the 49ers, his worst record against any NFC opponent.
Stafford has thrown four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his three games against them since joining the Rams, losing each one. Whether he improves on Sunday is likely to have a huge say in which teams emerge from the NFC West.
The big boys are back in Week 8 as the NFL season edges its way closer to the playoffs.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings all return after a bye week, as do the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, who will look to increase the pressure on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Eagles are aiming to maintain their 100 per cent record when the Pittsburgh Steelers come to town, while the Bills host Aaron Rodgers and his wobbling Green Bay Packers.
Stats Perform has taken a look at the numbers ahead of Sunday's games, starting in the city of brotherly love.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (6-0)
It promises to be a tricky trip for Pittsburgh, as the Eagles own a nine-game winning streak at home against them, a streak that started in 1966 (Pittsburgh's last win there was Week 6, 1965). It is the Eagles' longest home winning streak against a single opponent in franchise history.
The Steelers lost 16-10 at the Miami Dolphins last week, and are averaging just 15.3 points per game, the second fewest in the NFL (Denver Broncos, 14.3). The last time they finished in the bottom two of the NFL in scoring was 1969 (15.6 points per game, second worst).
The Eagles have held a lead of at least 14 points in each of their six games this season. The last team to do so in seven straight games to begin the season was the 2007 Patriots (eight straight).
Philadelphia have won Jalen Hurts' last nine starts, tied for the longest quarterback win streak in franchise history with Carson Wentz (2017), Donovan McNabb (2003) and Norm Van Brocklin (1960). The Eagles were 6-10 in Hurts' first 16 career starts in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (3-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Including a 24-9 home win in Week 4, the 49ers have won seven straight regular-season games against Los Angeles, their second-longest streak against the Rams all-time (17 straight from December 1990 to December 1998). However, the Rams beat the 49ers in last season's NFC Championship Game at SoFi Stadium.
San Francisco lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, 44-23, at home last week. It was the first time they have lost back-to-back games by at least 14 points since Weeks 9-10 in 2020. They followed those games up with a 23-20 win against the Rams in Los Angeles.
Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 303 yards, the 11th game in his career with at least 300 yards. The 49ers won the first seven of those games but are just 1-3 in the last four. The only win in that span came on the road against the Rams in Week 18 last season.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 1-6 in his regular season career against the 49ers, his worst record against any NFC opponent. He has thrown four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his three games against them since joining the Rams, losing each one.
Green Bay Packers (3-4) @ Buffalo Bills (5-1)
The Packers have won their last four home games against the Bills, but are 0-6 all-time in Buffalo, most recently losing a 21-13 game there in Week 15, 2014. The Bills are the only active franchise the Packers have never beaten on the road.
Green Bay lost 23-21 to the Washington Commanders last week, and have lost three straight games for the first time since Weeks 11-13 in 2018. They have not lost four straight since Weeks 8-11 in 2016. The last time they lost four of their first seven games was in 2006 (also 3-4).
The Bills are coming off their bye week following a 24-20 win in Kansas City in Week 6. Since the Bills' last Super Bowl appearance in 1993, they have begun a season 5-1 four times – 1995, 2008, 2019, and this year.
Buffalo's offense has faced a blitz on 35.3 per cent of its passing plays this season, the fourth highest in the league. The Packers have faced a blitz just 20.2 per cent of the time, second lowest in the league (Miami, 18.2). The Bills have blitzed opponents just 12.9 per cent of the time, the lowest in the league.
Elsewhere…
Dak Prescott should face the Chicago Bears (3-4) after making his return in the Dallas Cowboys' (5-2) win over the Detroit Lions last week, moving his career record as a starter to 54-33 (.621). Since 2016. The Cowboys are 9-8 when Prescott does not start (.530) while averaging almost 60 total yards fewer per game when he is not the starter (382.3 with, 322.9 without).
The New York Jets (5-2) enter their clash with the New England Patriots (3-4) with a chance to break their current 12-game losing streak against them, which dates back to the 2016 season. With a loss, the streak would match Denver's 13-game losing streak to Kansas City as the longest active one in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley (110 rushing yards) and Daniel Jones (107) each ran for over 100 yards last week, the third time a New York Giants (6-1) duo has eclipsed that mark. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw did so in Week 14, 2010 and Week 16, 2007. The only other team with such a duo this season was the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 against the Giants' opponents for Week 8, the Seattle Seahawks (4-3).
The Tennessee Titans (4-2) own a four-game win streak after a 19-10 win at home against the Indianapolis Colts. This is the Titans' sixth-straight season with a winning streak of at least four games, and it could go to five with a win at the Houston Texans (1-4-1).
There is no such thing as a sure thing in sport, and certainly not in fantasy football.
Every week, expected stars underperform while big-time contributors come out of nowhere.
But for this week's fantasy picks, Stats Perform has dug through the data to identify four offensive players and a defense that represent extremely strong bets for productive fantasy performances in Week 8.
If any of these selections disappoint, don't blame us!
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
The Lions defense finally showed some fight last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but they still represent a favourable matchup for the Dolphins and Tagovailoa.
Detroit's defense is allowing 7.33 yards per pass play, the most in the NFL, and the Dolphins are coming off an efficient performance on offense against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Though they only scored 16 points in their Week 7 win, the Dolphins averaged 7.5 yards per pass play, and surely would have scored more points with better efficiency on third down, on which Miami went four of 14.
It was an encouraging return for Tagovailoa, who should find third-down joy much easier to come by against this porous Lions group. Back Tua and the Dolphins for an explosive showing in Week 8.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
McCaffrey only had 10 touches in his 49er debut last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he averaged 6.2 yards on those touches, showing the burst and the vision that led San Francisco to trade much of their 2023 draft for the former All-Pro.
With a full week to get to grips with the playbook, McCaffrey will be an integral part of San Francisco's gameplan in a critical division matchup with the Rams.
The Rams have a top-10 run defense by yards per rush allowed (4.17), but this is less about matchup and more about opportunity. McCaffrey will get rushing opportunities and he will get targets against an opponent the 49ers have dominated in the regular season, winning the last seven meetings. Los Angeles will have designs on ending that streak, but the volume McCaffrey figures to receive makes him a must-start.
Wide Receiver: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
The matchup between the 6-1 Giants and the 4-3 Seahawks is one between two of the NFL's most surprising teams, and it promises to be a compelling one.
Though the Giants have given up only seven passing touchdowns this season, their defensive approach could play into the hands of the Seahawks.
In 2022, the Giants have blitzed 43.1 per cent of the time when defending the pass, according to Stats Perform data, well above the league average of 30.6 per cent.
When faced with five or more rushers or with a defensive back blitzing, Geno Smith has delivered a well-thrown ball on 85.7 per cent of attempts, the second-best among quarterbacks with at least 10 such passes.
In other words, he is excelling against the blitz and, with D.K. Metcalf out, Lockett will be a safety net who should be the beneficiary of a plethora of pass attempts.
Winning his matchup with a defender on 67.9 per cent of targets this season – the average is 61.7 for wide receivers with 25 or more targets – Lockett remains a supremely talented pass catcher who can take advantage of those opportunities and enjoy a huge fantasy day.
Tight End: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh defense is not the force it once was, especially without T.J. Watt.
The Steelers are giving up 6.91 yards per pass play, the fifth-most in the league, and Goedert can capitalise on their vulnerability.
He has been targeted at least six times in four of his six games this season and has a big play rate of 34.8 per cent that is fifth-best among tight ends with at least 20 targets.
Goedert clearly has the trust of Jalen Hurts, with this matchup the perfect mix of opportunity and opponent for him to flourish and put up big fantasy points.
Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
Starting a defense against Aaron Rodgers?!
That's how far the Packers have fallen, and fantasy owners should have no hesitation in starting the Bills against Green Bay's dismal passing attack.
Rodgers' average depth of target this is season is just 6.4 yards, with Green Bay lacking the ability to test defenses downfield with any kind of consistency.
Only two teams have more takeaways than the Bills (13), and the Buffalo defense – which has allowed a successful offensive play just 38 per cent of the time; the average is 39.4 – has the formula to frustrate Rodgers once again.
The Bills lead the league with a pressure rate of 45.4 per cent but blitz on just 15.1 per cent of passing downs. Simply put, they consistently get pressure with four pass rushers, giving them the resources in the back seven to rally to the ball and limit the impact of the short passing game on which Rodgers is suddenly reliant.
Buffalo can stop the Packers gaining yards and have a proclivity for taking the ball away. It promises to be a painful game for Rodgers and a productive one for the Bills' defense and those who start it in fantasy.
The Kansas City Chiefs' offense fired on all cylinders against a vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense on Sunday, and Juju Smith-Schuster had an interesting explanation for their success.
Kansas City recovered from an early 10-0 hole to prevail in Week 7, the Chiefs exploding and pulling away in the fourth quarter in a 44-23 triumph.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes shredded the Niners for 423 yards and three touchdowns, bouncing back in emphatic fashion after his interception on the Chiefs' first drive set up San Francisco's opening touchdown.
Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both went over 100 yards receiving and tight end Travis Kelce had 98, while Mecole Hardman found the endzone three times, twice as a rusher and once as a receiver.
San Francisco entered the game as the NFL's top defense, allowing only 255.8 yards per game, and the Chiefs were coming off a Week 6 game in which they were frustrated and held to 20 points in a loss to the Buffalo Bills.
But instead of those point-scoring issues carrying into another tough matchup, the Chiefs found the explosiveness they needed, with Smith-Schuster crediting an online gaming session between Mahomes and his pass-catchers for their devastating display.
"I'm gonna tell you what got us the chemistry when we needed this game," Smith-Schuster told a press conference.
"So, I think it was Friday night. It was me, Pat, Travis and MVS. We were playing Call of Duty together, we were playing Warzone, and we played three games, and we won three games, back-to-back.
"We got off, and we were like, 'damn'. It's really hard to win a game in Warzone.
"You could just... the communication between all of us, and then the chemistry? It was like we were in the game. It kind of just led into this game, and it kind of just showed on the field."
Christian McCaffrey was disappointed to suffer defeat on his San Francisco 49ers debut after a "weird week", but wants to focus on what he can control.
McCaffrey only joined the 49ers at the end of last week in a trade from the Carolina Panthers, and was thrown straight into the action against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.
The Chiefs ran out 44-23 winners at Levi's Stadium, with McCaffrey only involved in 21 snaps, making 38 yards from eight carries.
The 26-year-old All-Pro was clearly still getting used to the idea of swapping Carolina for San Francisco, but said after the game he wants to get up to speed quickly.
"This was a weird week for me and for [the team]," he told reporters. "I didn't know what to expect. I know I had a certain list of plays that were up.
"For me, mentally, this was just 'focus on everything I can control and get rolling'. Obviously losing's frustrating, but I'm still getting to know these guys, I gotta do my job, I gotta make a few more plays here and just learn the offense as quick as possible.
"I'm just trying to control what I can control right now and get going."
The Niners are 3-4, having lost their last two games, and tight end George Kittle warned that McCaffrey cannot be expected to "be the saviour".
"He's not going to be the saviour, but he's definitely going to help us out," Kittle said. "I think these next two weeks are going to be huge for Christian to understand our offense and be comfortable out there not to think at all, just go out and run because that's what he's really good at.
"Like I said, penalties, turnovers, giving up big plays on defense, we've got to be better than that. We weren't today. That's how you lose football games."
The Kansas City Chiefs are the highest scoring team in the NFL through Week 7 after a convincing 44-23 road win against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
San Francisco were in the headlines this week after pulling the trigger on a big trade for superstar running back Christian McCaffrey, but it was Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes controlling the contest.
Mahomes threw an interception on the Chiefs' first drive, but turned things around quickly and ended up completing 25 of his 34 passes for 423 yards and three touchdowns.
He tossed second-half touchdown passes to Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and his first touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman was the beginning of a memorable day for the speedy receiver.
After getting on the end of an eight-yard score from Mahomes in the first quarter, Hardman then took a jet-sweep 25 yards down the sideline in the second quarter for the first rushing touchdown of his career.
Not done yet, Hardman added his second rushing touchdown and third overall score for the game with a three-yard run in the fourth period. He finished with two carries for 28 yards and two rushing TDs, with four catches for 32 yards and a receiving TD.
For the 49ers, Jimmy Garropolo was not to blame for the loss as he finished 25-of-37 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and an interception – with touchdown passes to George Kittle and Ray-Ray McCloud III.
McCaffrey carried the ball eight times for 38 yards, and caught both of his targets for 24 yards through the air.
Seahawks move above .500 with upset in Los Angeles
The Seattle Seahawks rode a spectacular performance from rookie running back Kenneth Walker III to a 37-23 upset win on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Walker rushed 23 times for 168 yards and two touchdowns, capped by a 74-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter to put the game to bed.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith was solid, completing 20-of-27 passes for 210 yards and a pair of touchdown passes to Marquise Goodwin as he assumed a major role following a knee injury to key wide receiver D.K. Metcalf.
Chargers star Austin Ekeler remains the top running back in fantasy football, rushing for 31 yards and a touchdown, as well as catching all 12 of his targets for 96 yards and a second score.
Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his debut for the San Francisco 49ers against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Former All-Pro running back McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday for second, third and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-rounder in 2024.
The tight turnaround initially made it look unlikely McCaffrey would be overly involved in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV from the 2019 season.
However, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, McCaffrey will play and the 49ers will have a package of plays ready for him.
The Chiefs will have a new lead runner in their backfield, with rookie Isaiah Pacheco set to get the bulk of the carries over 2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Kansas City's closest rivals in the AFC West, the 4-2 Los Angeles Chargers, face NFC West opponents themselves in the form of the Seattle Seahawks.
They had hoped to have wide receiver Keenan Allen back from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 1, but his status was still up in the air heading into Sunday.
Star Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett is set to play having been listed as questionable with a hamstring injury of his own.
The Baltimore Ravens, another prospective AFC contender, have been boosted with tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (knee) both active for their meeting with the Cleveland Browns.
The Dallas Cowboys will not have to defend D'Andre Swift in Dak Prescott's return to action. Detroit Lions running back Swift is once again inactive because of ankle and shoulder injuries.
Detroit's division rivals the Green Bay Packers are looking to end a two-game losing run and get their offense back on track against the Washington Commanders.
Yet they will be without oft-injured left tackle David Bakhtiari because of a flare-up in his knee. The Packers have remodelled a struggling offensive line, shifting Elgton Jenkins from right tackle to left guard. Yosh Nijman takes over at right tackle, with rookie Zac Tom filling in for Bakhtiari.
Wide receiver Sammy Watkins will return from a knee injury as Aaron Rodgers desperately searches for targets he can trust.
The San Francisco 49ers' running game hasn't quite performed at the standard they would have hoped so far in 2022, but they made a blockbuster move to address that on Thursday by trading for two-time All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco traded a second, third and fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft as well as a fifth-rounder in 2024 to prise McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.
At his best, McCaffrey can be one of the most devastating playmakers in the NFL. Back in 2019, he became only the third player after former 49ers great Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to rack up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
In the two subsequent seasons, however, McCaffrey played only 10 games because of injury and will carry a cap hit of at least $12million in each of the next three seasons.
While he has played every game so far in 2022, giving up that level of draft capital and committing to pay that contract -- though it could be restructured in the offseason -- for a player with McCaffrey's durability problems represents a significant risk.
The 49ers' average of 4.43 yards per carry is 14th in the NFL, though they rank ninth in Efficiency versus Expected -- which compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in specific situations -- on run plays.
San Francisco's run game has not produced at an elite level so far in 2022, but it is among the most efficient in the NFL.
The level of compensation paid to land McCaffrey suggests the 49ers believe he can lift their rushing attack to the very top of the league, but can he do enough to justify the outlay spent on him?
Still a potent running threat
Despite playing behind an offensive line in Carolina that ranks 30th in run block win rate, McCaffrey has, through the first six weeks, produced a compelling argument that he is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.
While his 393 rushing yards are only good enough for 14th in the NFL, his advanced numbers illustrate his value running the ball.
His yards before contact average of 2.29 yards is below the league average of 2.5, with that figure a reflection of the disappointing blocking of the offensive line in Carolina.
However, McCaffrey did an impressive job of overcoming the Panthers' futility in the trenches, putting up 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, above the average of 2.05.
Additionally, he is also averaging 3.36 yards per carry on runs where there is a disruption by a defender, again above the league-wide mark of 3.05 and just below that of Saquon Barkley (3.37), who is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 616.
Though the Niners, who possess a young interior offensive line, are just 16th in run block win rate, that still represents a marked improvement on Carolina's performance in that area, indicating McCaffrey will benefit from blocking that will enable him to rack up more yardage in the backfield, rather than having to limit the negative impact of defenders taking advantage of blown blocks to break into the backfield.
Yet his rushing production is just part of the appeal with McCaffrey, with the potential added dimension offered by his significant receiving upside surely a huge factor in the 49ers' decision to part with such a substantial package of draft picks.
The receiving gold standard
Despite battling injuries for each of the past two seasons, McCaffrey still has an extremely strong claim for being considered the premier receiving running back in the NFL.
Since 2017, when he was drafted eighth overall by the Panthers, only the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (3,454) has racked up more receiving yards among running backs than McCaffrey (3,292).
However, Kamara has played 78 games to McCaffrey's 64 in that time and the per game numbers skew heavily in the latter's favour. McCaffrey has averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game across his career, the most among running backs since 2017, compared to 44.3 for Kamara in second. No running back has more receptions for first downs than McCaffrey (174) in that span while only Austin Ekeler (26) and Kamara (20) have more receptions for touchdowns than his 18.
This season, though the Panthers targeted him 43 times in the passing game -- only Ekeler (48) has more among backs -- McCaffrey's production through the air has not been efficient.
He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 17 of his 43 targets. His burn rate of 39.6 per cent is below the league average at his position of 47.6, and he has delivered a big play on 11 per cent of targets (the average this season for backs is 12.7).
Yet his final weeks in Carolina were ones with a team clearly ill-equipped to maximise his talents.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no such problems, with McCaffrey likely to benefit from his new play-caller's ingenuity and from playing alongside another of the league's most versatile offensive weapons.
Doubling up on wide backs
McCaffrey may be the NFL's best pass-catching running back, and he is joining the league's top ball-carrying wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, on the San Francisco offense.
Last season, Samuel set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season, eight of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground.
When lined up as a running back for a downhill carry in 2021, Samuel averaged 6.58 yards per rush. He recorded 4.11 yards before contact per attempt, 2.67 yards after contact and averaged 4.77 yards per attempt on carries where there was a run disruption by a defender, his remarkable proficiency in the self-termed 'wide back' role fuelling San Francisco's surge to the NFC Championship Game.
This season, Samuel has 19 carries from the running back spot and is averaging 6.53 yards per rush and 4.61 yards after contact per attempt.
Not every NFL week is going to be filled with great games. The law of averages says there will be some clunkers.
But it only takes one game to spice up a Sunday, and Week 7 has such a contest in the form of a Super Bowl rematch.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV three seasons ago, the Niners failing to finish the job in Miami having led 20-10 with seven minutes remaining.
San Francisco's first chance for a measure of revenge comes on Sunday, when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a game SmartRatings sees as the best of the week.
SmartRatings is a Stats Perform AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Here, we take a look at Chiefs-49ers clash in the Bay Area and two other games viewed as the most exciting of Week 7 and the key matchups that could decide them.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
SmartRating: 54
Win Probability: Packers 74.2%
Key Matchup: Allen Lazard vs. Washington cornerbacks
Randall Cobb's injury means Aaron Rodgers has even fewer receivers he can trust, so Lazard can expect plenty of targets to come his way as the Packers look to end a two-game losing run.
The numbers suggest Lazard will be able to find joy against a vulnerable Washington secondary.
Lazard has won his matchup with a defender, which Stats Perform labels as a 'burn', on 21 of his 32 targets. His burn rate of 65.6 per cent is above the league average of 60.6 for receivers with a minimum of 20 targets.
He has produced a big play on 12 of those targets, good for a big play rate of 37.2 that is 10th among wideouts (min. 20 targets).
Washington's starting corners, Benjamin St. Juste and Kendall Fuller, have allowed 12.27 and 13.15 burn yards per target respectively -- the average for corners with at least 20 targets is 10.05.
Both have given up a big play on over 30 per cent of their targets -- St. Juste (31.3%), Fuller (36%) -- at a position where the average is 25.5. In other words, Rodgers and Lazard should theoretically be able to thrive against both starting corners. If they do, the Packers' passing game might finally get on track and boost Green Bay's hopes of a deep playoff push many anticipated before their underwhelming start.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
SmartRating: 60
Win Probability: Colts 54.4%
Key Matchup: Jeffery Simmons vs. Quenton Nelson
The AFC South is turning into a dogfight, with the 3-2 Titans leading the 3-2-1 Colts by half a game going into this divisional clash.
For the Colts to make sure the tie with the Houston Texans that separates them and the Titans does not prove costly down the stretch, they need to knock off Tennessee.
Doing that will involve stopping Jeffery Simmons, who has been a force on the interior of the Tennessee defense.
Simmons has beaten a pass protector on 18 of his 23 pressures this season. Only four interior defensive linemen have defeated a blocker on a pressure more often.
However, the Colts have a left guard in Quenton Nelson who has once again been one of the NFL's elite at his position in 2022.
Nelson has allowed a pressure on just 3.1 per cent of his pass protection snaps, giving him the sixth-best pressure rate among guards with at least 100 snaps this season.
The Colts will at least need to slow down Simmons for their passing game to prosper as it did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the heavyweight battle between two former first-round picks in the heart of the trenches could well decide who takes command of the division.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 71
Win Probability: Chiefs 50.7
Key Matchup: Fred Warner vs. Chiefs offense
A Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming off losses was made spicier with the news of San Francisco's blockbuster trade for running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday.
But McCaffrey is unlikely to have much of an impact if he does play on Sunday given the limited time he has had to absorb the 49er playbook.
More key to the 49ers' hopes of at least partially avenging their Super Bowl collapse is the performance of a player who intercepted Mahomes in that game, Fred Warner.
The 2020 first-team All-Pro is the organisational heartbeat of the 49er defense, the man who plays a pivotal role in ensuring DeMeco Ryans' group is ultra-disciplined and consistently in the right position to make plays.
That discipline fell down in Week 6 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, in which an extremely banged-up defense struggled to handle the Falcons' array of motions and zone-read runs involving quarterback Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco will get back a host of players from injury this weekend and the defense must do a better job of handling motion against an offense that heavily relies on it and will have to be alert to Mahomes' running threat, which for defenses is a frustrating complement to the wondrous things he can do throwing the ball.
Still, with no Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' avenues to explosive plays are not as plentiful as they once were, and the 49ers will likely approach Kansas City in a similar way to the Buffalo Bills defense last week, leaning on two-high safety zone coverages in an attempt to force Mahomes to attack underneath.
Warner has allowed receivers to get open in zone coverage on just 10.87 per cent of his zone plays, his zone open rate the best in the NFL among linebackers. With his acumen in that area of the game and the athleticism he possesses to run downfield with Mahomes' primary target Travis Kelce, a bounce-back effort from Warner will be crucial to San Francisco's hopes of overturning odds that are slightly in Kansas City's favour.
Christian McCaffrey officially joined the San Francisco 49ers on Friday and expressed excitement about joining the Kyle Shanahan-led offense.
Acquired from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday for a haul of draft picks, McCaffrey met with the media after taking part in his first practice with the 49ers.
"In my opinion, the best run game and one of the most explosive offenses in the league. How could you not want to play here as an offensive weapon," McCaffrey said. "I couldn’t be more fired up to be here. Obviously, I have a little bit of a history with coach Shanahan. I can’t express how happy I am to be here."
The trade sends McCaffrey back to the Bay Area where he starred in college at Stanford.
McCaffrey’s father, former NFL wild receiver Ed McCaffrey, won a Super with the 49ers in 1994 and won two more titles in Denver with Shanahan’s father, Mike, as his head coach.
"I don’t think there’s anybody better at putting guys in position to have success and tailoring to what they’re good at," McCaffrey said of Kyle Shanahan. "I’ve watched him to do some unbelievable things with some great running backs, even the guys in the room right now. I’m just excited to learn from them."
The 49ers will add McCaffrey to a group of playmakers that includes versatile receiver Deebo Samuel, star tight end George Kittle and receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Samuel has thrived under Shanahan in becoming one of the league’s most productive players and McCaffrey should be able to do many of the similar things, whether lining up in the backfield or in the slot as a receiver.
"It’s an honour to be compared to him [Samuel]," McCaffrey said. "I’m happy to share the locker room with him and I think we can do some exciting things."
While clearly one of the best running backs in the league, McCaffrey has had trouble staying healthy in recent seasons. He missed 23 games over the previous two seasons due to injuries but has played in all six games in 2022.
"I think you’re always adapting every offseason," McCaffrey said regarding injuries. "It’s a constant change in figuring out what’s the best thing to do, so I made some tweaks here and there, talked to some different guys. Every year I’ve made certain changes and at the end of the day, it’s an ongoing process. Just take it day by day."
McCaffrey ranks fourth in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (607) despite playing for the league’s 32nd-ranked offense. He and Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb are the only players in the league to have five games this year with at least 100 yards from scrimmage.
Heading into Week 7 of the NFL season, the picture is still delicately poised as the race for the playoffs begins to heat up.
The Philadelphia Eagles (6-0), Buffalo Bills (5-1) and Minnesota Vikings (5-1) are all on a bye this week, along with the Los Angeles Rams (3-3), which provides an opportunity for the chasing pack to close the gap.
Both New York franchises are on the road as they look to extend their winning records, the Giants in Jacksonville to face the Jaguars while the Jets tussle with the Denver Broncos, and elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs have a stern test in San Francisco against the 49ers.
With all that and more on the cards, Stats Perform has delved into the numbers to preview this weekend's action.
New York Giants (5-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
The Giants may have season form on their side against the Jaguars but they are the only team to never win a road game in Jacksonville (0-3), who are one of two franchises the Giants have not won against away from home alongside the Baltimore Ravens.
Victory against the Ravens in Week 6, coming on home soil, saw the Giants secure a fifth win of the season and become the first NFL team this term to surpass their win total from last year (four). Their largest wins increase in the Super Bowl era was from one in 1966 to seven in 1967.
Daniel Jones' form has been key to that improvement, completing at least 70 per cent of his passes in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. He has the opportunity to become only the second Giants QB in the Super Bowl era to do so in three straight games, alongside Eli Manning in September 2018 (minimum 20 attempts each game).
The Jaguars' 2-4 record does not paint the full picture of their season, though, with a +24 point differential standing as the sixth best in the NFL and the best for a team with a losing record through six games since the 2010 Los Angelese Chargers (+31, 2-4).
In last week's defeat to the Indianapolis Colts, Trevor Lawrence completed 20 of 22 passes (90.9 per cent) to become the youngest player (23 years, 10 days) to ever record 90 per cent accuracy from at least 20 passing attempts in a game.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Kansas City face the 49ers boasting victories in four of the last five matchups, including a 31-20 triumph in Super Bowl LIV, but are 1-5 in San Francisco – with their only win there coming in the teams' first-ever clash in 1971.
The Chiefs have not been strong defensively, allowing at least 20 points in all six games to begin the season and stand as one of four teams who are yet to allow fewer than 20 in any game this season.
That bodes well for the 49ers, who are 2-0 at home this season and have allowed fewer than 10 points in both of those games, though they have never held their opponent to fewer than 10 points in the team's first three home games of any season.
The potential return of Nick Bosa will be of concern for Patrick Mahomes, after he missed last week due to a groin injury, as the 49ers are pressuring quarterbacks in 48.4 per cent of passing plays with Bosa on the field (122 plays) compared to 34.9 per cent without him (86 plays).
New York Jets (4-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-4)
The Denver Broncos are in need of a major improvement in performance and hosting the Jets will provide encouragement, having shut them out in two straight home games, including 26-0 last year.
The Jets have reason to be optimistic themselves, however, with last week's 27-10 victory against the Green Bay Packers securing their first three-game winning streak since 2019 and their first three-game road winning streak in a single season since 2010.
Meanwhile, the Broncos fell to a 19-16 overtime defeat to the Chargers in Week 6 and suffered their second straight overtime loss, with no team ever having played three straight overtime games in NFL history.
Russell Wilson found himself under scrutiny again last week, completing only 15 of his 28 pass attempts for a completion percentage of 53.6. In total this season, he has a 58.6 completion percentage, having entered the year with a lowest single-season completion percentage of 61.3 in 2017.
Elsewhere…
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost their first six road games as a franchise against the Miami Dolphins but head to Florida in Week 7 with a 6-3 record in the past nine meetings. However, they have not had a quarterback start at the Dolphins other than Ben Roethlisberger since Kordell Stewart in 1998.
Each of the last 11 games between the Seattle Seahawks and the Chargers have been decided by a single-digit margin, with the only longer streak in NFL history being a 14-game stretch between the Colts and Houston Texans from 2014 to 2020.
Aaron Rodgers stands 0-3 in road games against the Washington Commanders, with the Green Bay Packers 2-8 in their last 10 games in Washington – their victories coming in 1968 and 2004.
Tom Brady faces the Carolina Panthers with 15 completions in each of his last 39 games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, tying Brady's career-best streak with 39 straight games for the New England Patriots from 2011 to 2013.
The San Francisco 49ers have won the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes, acquiring the All-Pro running back from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday for four draft picks, according to multiple reports.
Off to an ugly 1-5 start, the Panthers had been considering trading McCaffrey, and they found a partner in the 49ers. Carolina will receive picks in the second, third and fourth round in the 2023 draft, and a fifth-round selection in 2024.
The 26-year-old McCaffrey ranks fourth in the NFL with 670 scrimmage yards, amassing 393 on the ground and another 277 through the air.
He joins a 49ers team that lost starting running back Elijah Mitchell to a sprained MCL in the season opener and quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending broken ankle the next week.
Despite the significant injuries, the 49ers are 3-3 and in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks and defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
The versatile McCaffrey gives quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo another weapon to an offense that features receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle.
The eighth overall pick of the 2017 draft, McCaffrey’s best season came in 2019, when he became the third player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He finished with 1,387 rushing yards and 1,005 receiving yards and 19 total touchdowns to tie for the league lead.
Injuries, however, limited him to just 10 total games in 2020 and ‘21, but he’s suited up for all six games this year.
McCaffrey becomes the second Carolina player traded to an NFC West team this week after the Arizona Cardinals acquired wide receiver Robbie Anderson on Monday.
Belief is a powerful emotion.
Athletes from a variety of sports over the years have spoken about the power of self-belief that allowed them to overcome the odds and prevail.
In the world of fantasy football, where the stakes are substantially lower, it is easy to lose faith after a few bad weeks given the season is so short.
Still, even as the losses mount, it's important to not get discouraged, trust in your line-up decisions and, most importantly, remember that it's just a bit of fun.
Not everything is going to go right for all your players in every game, but with Week 7 on the horizon, Stats Perform has gone through the numbers and identified four offensive players and a defense deserving of your faith for the upcoming slate of games.
Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Prescott is finally set to return to the lineup after Cooper Rush kept the Cowboys firmly in the mix during his absence with a fractured thumb.
There may some reticence to roll with Prescott in fantasy in his first game since the season opener.
Against the Lions, there's little reason to have such concerns. Their defense is allowing 7.37 yards per pass play, the second most in the NFL, while only the Cleveland Browns have conceded more offensive touchdowns than Detroit's 18.
Game flow could work against Prescott putting up a huge fantasy performance if the Dallas defense allows the Cowboys to build a big lead, but there's no reason to expect him to struggle on his return.
Running Back: Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers
Walker backed up his explosive performance against the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 with a strong showing in Week 6 as the Seahawks knocked off the Arizona Cardinals.
He racked up 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries versus Arizona and now gets to face a Charger run defense that has displayed no improvement despite heavy offseason investment.
Only the New York Giants (5.61) are allowing more yards per rush than the Chargers (5.56). Walker already has seven rushes of 10 yards or more this season and, if you have this exciting rookie on your roster, you can afford to believe he will deliver in a substantial way in LA.
Wide Receiver: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Samuel was kept relatively quiet as the 49er offense endured a difficult day in Atlanta last week, failing to score in the second half of their 28-14 loss to the Falcons.
Even so, he still managed seven catches for 79 yards and his fantasy managers who may be worried about a drop-off from the San Francisco attack should stay calm.
The 49er run game sputtered in Atlanta, gaining just 50 yards, but it looked at its best on the two carries Samuel received out of the backfield.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan last season turned to putting Samuel in the backfield to give his offense a spark and it produced stunning results. Don't be surprised to see him do the same here.
With the Chiefs level with the Lions with 18 offensive scores allowed, a varied role for Samuel on Sunday could spell a highly productive effort on an offense that may benefit from the return of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams.
Tight End: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
The Green Bay offense is in dreadful shape, with some questioning whether it is broken beyond repair following a dismal defeat to the New York Jets at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers has called for the Packers to simplify their attack in the wake of that loss. Any huge schematic changes seem unlikely but what is probable is that Rodgers will focus on the few targets he trusts.
One such target is Tonyan, who was last week targeted 12 times, catching 10 passes for 90 yards.
With Randall Cobb on the sideline through injury, Allen Lazard and Tonyan will likely be Rodgers' favoured weapons in the passing game. Whether he can engineer an upturn in Green Bay's fortunes is open for debate, but Tonyan's place in the pass-catching hierarchy for the Packers gives him plenty of fantasy value against a Commanders defense that has allowed 12 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the league.
Defense/Special Teams: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Is your faith in the New Orleans defense shaken by the Cincinnati Bengals' comeback against the Saints? Well here come the Cardinals to make everything all better.
The Cardinals managed nine points against a Seahawks team that has allowed 163 this season. Only the Lions have given up more.
On a per-play basis, the Steelers are the sole team to put up fewer yards (4.77) than the Cardinals (4.81).
The Saints' defense is not as fearsome as in days gone by, but it has the benefit of facing an utterly anaemic offense in Week 7 and is worthy of some belief as a result.
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