There is no such thing as a sure thing in sport, and certainly not in fantasy football.
Every week, expected stars underperform while big-time contributors come out of nowhere.
But for this week's fantasy picks, Stats Perform has dug through the data to identify four offensive players and a defense that represent extremely strong bets for productive fantasy performances in Week 8.
If any of these selections disappoint, don't blame us!
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
The Lions defense finally showed some fight last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but they still represent a favourable matchup for the Dolphins and Tagovailoa.
Detroit's defense is allowing 7.33 yards per pass play, the most in the NFL, and the Dolphins are coming off an efficient performance on offense against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Though they only scored 16 points in their Week 7 win, the Dolphins averaged 7.5 yards per pass play, and surely would have scored more points with better efficiency on third down, on which Miami went four of 14.
It was an encouraging return for Tagovailoa, who should find third-down joy much easier to come by against this porous Lions group. Back Tua and the Dolphins for an explosive showing in Week 8.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
McCaffrey only had 10 touches in his 49er debut last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he averaged 6.2 yards on those touches, showing the burst and the vision that led San Francisco to trade much of their 2023 draft for the former All-Pro.
With a full week to get to grips with the playbook, McCaffrey will be an integral part of San Francisco's gameplan in a critical division matchup with the Rams.
The Rams have a top-10 run defense by yards per rush allowed (4.17), but this is less about matchup and more about opportunity. McCaffrey will get rushing opportunities and he will get targets against an opponent the 49ers have dominated in the regular season, winning the last seven meetings. Los Angeles will have designs on ending that streak, but the volume McCaffrey figures to receive makes him a must-start.
Wide Receiver: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
The matchup between the 6-1 Giants and the 4-3 Seahawks is one between two of the NFL's most surprising teams, and it promises to be a compelling one.
Though the Giants have given up only seven passing touchdowns this season, their defensive approach could play into the hands of the Seahawks.
In 2022, the Giants have blitzed 43.1 per cent of the time when defending the pass, according to Stats Perform data, well above the league average of 30.6 per cent.
When faced with five or more rushers or with a defensive back blitzing, Geno Smith has delivered a well-thrown ball on 85.7 per cent of attempts, the second-best among quarterbacks with at least 10 such passes.
In other words, he is excelling against the blitz and, with D.K. Metcalf out, Lockett will be a safety net who should be the beneficiary of a plethora of pass attempts.
Winning his matchup with a defender on 67.9 per cent of targets this season – the average is 61.7 for wide receivers with 25 or more targets – Lockett remains a supremely talented pass catcher who can take advantage of those opportunities and enjoy a huge fantasy day.
Tight End: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh defense is not the force it once was, especially without T.J. Watt.
The Steelers are giving up 6.91 yards per pass play, the fifth-most in the league, and Goedert can capitalise on their vulnerability.
He has been targeted at least six times in four of his six games this season and has a big play rate of 34.8 per cent that is fifth-best among tight ends with at least 20 targets.
Goedert clearly has the trust of Jalen Hurts, with this matchup the perfect mix of opportunity and opponent for him to flourish and put up big fantasy points.
Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
Starting a defense against Aaron Rodgers?!
That's how far the Packers have fallen, and fantasy owners should have no hesitation in starting the Bills against Green Bay's dismal passing attack.
Rodgers' average depth of target this is season is just 6.4 yards, with Green Bay lacking the ability to test defenses downfield with any kind of consistency.
Only two teams have more takeaways than the Bills (13), and the Buffalo defense – which has allowed a successful offensive play just 38 per cent of the time; the average is 39.4 – has the formula to frustrate Rodgers once again.
The Bills lead the league with a pressure rate of 45.4 per cent but blitz on just 15.1 per cent of passing downs. Simply put, they consistently get pressure with four pass rushers, giving them the resources in the back seven to rally to the ball and limit the impact of the short passing game on which Rodgers is suddenly reliant.
Buffalo can stop the Packers gaining yards and have a proclivity for taking the ball away. It promises to be a painful game for Rodgers and a productive one for the Bills' defense and those who start it in fantasy.