There is no such thing as a sure thing in sport, and certainly not in fantasy football.
Every week, expected stars underperform while big-time contributors come out of nowhere.
But for this week's fantasy picks, Stats Perform has dug through the data to identify four offensive players and a defense that represent extremely strong bets for productive fantasy performances in Week 8.
If any of these selections disappoint, don't blame us!
Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
The Lions defense finally showed some fight last week against the Dallas Cowboys, but they still represent a favourable matchup for the Dolphins and Tagovailoa.
Detroit's defense is allowing 7.33 yards per pass play, the most in the NFL, and the Dolphins are coming off an efficient performance on offense against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Though they only scored 16 points in their Week 7 win, the Dolphins averaged 7.5 yards per pass play, and surely would have scored more points with better efficiency on third down, on which Miami went four of 14.
It was an encouraging return for Tagovailoa, who should find third-down joy much easier to come by against this porous Lions group. Back Tua and the Dolphins for an explosive showing in Week 8.
Running Back: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
McCaffrey only had 10 touches in his 49er debut last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he averaged 6.2 yards on those touches, showing the burst and the vision that led San Francisco to trade much of their 2023 draft for the former All-Pro.
With a full week to get to grips with the playbook, McCaffrey will be an integral part of San Francisco's gameplan in a critical division matchup with the Rams.
The Rams have a top-10 run defense by yards per rush allowed (4.17), but this is less about matchup and more about opportunity. McCaffrey will get rushing opportunities and he will get targets against an opponent the 49ers have dominated in the regular season, winning the last seven meetings. Los Angeles will have designs on ending that streak, but the volume McCaffrey figures to receive makes him a must-start.
Wide Receiver: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
The matchup between the 6-1 Giants and the 4-3 Seahawks is one between two of the NFL's most surprising teams, and it promises to be a compelling one.
Though the Giants have given up only seven passing touchdowns this season, their defensive approach could play into the hands of the Seahawks.
In 2022, the Giants have blitzed 43.1 per cent of the time when defending the pass, according to Stats Perform data, well above the league average of 30.6 per cent.
When faced with five or more rushers or with a defensive back blitzing, Geno Smith has delivered a well-thrown ball on 85.7 per cent of attempts, the second-best among quarterbacks with at least 10 such passes.
In other words, he is excelling against the blitz and, with D.K. Metcalf out, Lockett will be a safety net who should be the beneficiary of a plethora of pass attempts.
Winning his matchup with a defender on 67.9 per cent of targets this season – the average is 61.7 for wide receivers with 25 or more targets – Lockett remains a supremely talented pass catcher who can take advantage of those opportunities and enjoy a huge fantasy day.
Tight End: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh defense is not the force it once was, especially without T.J. Watt.
The Steelers are giving up 6.91 yards per pass play, the fifth-most in the league, and Goedert can capitalise on their vulnerability.
He has been targeted at least six times in four of his six games this season and has a big play rate of 34.8 per cent that is fifth-best among tight ends with at least 20 targets.
Goedert clearly has the trust of Jalen Hurts, with this matchup the perfect mix of opportunity and opponent for him to flourish and put up big fantasy points.
Defense/Special Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
Starting a defense against Aaron Rodgers?!
That's how far the Packers have fallen, and fantasy owners should have no hesitation in starting the Bills against Green Bay's dismal passing attack.
Rodgers' average depth of target this is season is just 6.4 yards, with Green Bay lacking the ability to test defenses downfield with any kind of consistency.
Only two teams have more takeaways than the Bills (13), and the Buffalo defense – which has allowed a successful offensive play just 38 per cent of the time; the average is 39.4 – has the formula to frustrate Rodgers once again.
The Bills lead the league with a pressure rate of 45.4 per cent but blitz on just 15.1 per cent of passing downs. Simply put, they consistently get pressure with four pass rushers, giving them the resources in the back seven to rally to the ball and limit the impact of the short passing game on which Rodgers is suddenly reliant.
Buffalo can stop the Packers gaining yards and have a proclivity for taking the ball away. It promises to be a painful game for Rodgers and a productive one for the Bills' defense and those who start it in fantasy.
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
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