The San Francisco 49ers' running game hasn't quite performed at the standard they would have hoped so far in 2022, but they made a blockbuster move to address that on Thursday by trading for two-time All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco traded a second, third and fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft as well as a fifth-rounder in 2024 to prise McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.
At his best, McCaffrey can be one of the most devastating playmakers in the NFL. Back in 2019, he became only the third player after former 49ers great Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to rack up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
In the two subsequent seasons, however, McCaffrey played only 10 games because of injury and will carry a cap hit of at least $12million in each of the next three seasons.
While he has played every game so far in 2022, giving up that level of draft capital and committing to pay that contract -- though it could be restructured in the offseason -- for a player with McCaffrey's durability problems represents a significant risk.
The 49ers' average of 4.43 yards per carry is 14th in the NFL, though they rank ninth in Efficiency versus Expected -- which compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in specific situations -- on run plays.
San Francisco's run game has not produced at an elite level so far in 2022, but it is among the most efficient in the NFL.
The level of compensation paid to land McCaffrey suggests the 49ers believe he can lift their rushing attack to the very top of the league, but can he do enough to justify the outlay spent on him?
Still a potent running threat
Despite playing behind an offensive line in Carolina that ranks 30th in run block win rate, McCaffrey has, through the first six weeks, produced a compelling argument that he is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.
While his 393 rushing yards are only good enough for 14th in the NFL, his advanced numbers illustrate his value running the ball.
His yards before contact average of 2.29 yards is below the league average of 2.5, with that figure a reflection of the disappointing blocking of the offensive line in Carolina.
However, McCaffrey did an impressive job of overcoming the Panthers' futility in the trenches, putting up 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, above the average of 2.05.
Additionally, he is also averaging 3.36 yards per carry on runs where there is a disruption by a defender, again above the league-wide mark of 3.05 and just below that of Saquon Barkley (3.37), who is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 616.
Though the Niners, who possess a young interior offensive line, are just 16th in run block win rate, that still represents a marked improvement on Carolina's performance in that area, indicating McCaffrey will benefit from blocking that will enable him to rack up more yardage in the backfield, rather than having to limit the negative impact of defenders taking advantage of blown blocks to break into the backfield.
Yet his rushing production is just part of the appeal with McCaffrey, with the potential added dimension offered by his significant receiving upside surely a huge factor in the 49ers' decision to part with such a substantial package of draft picks.
The receiving gold standard
Despite battling injuries for each of the past two seasons, McCaffrey still has an extremely strong claim for being considered the premier receiving running back in the NFL.
Since 2017, when he was drafted eighth overall by the Panthers, only the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (3,454) has racked up more receiving yards among running backs than McCaffrey (3,292).
However, Kamara has played 78 games to McCaffrey's 64 in that time and the per game numbers skew heavily in the latter's favour. McCaffrey has averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game across his career, the most among running backs since 2017, compared to 44.3 for Kamara in second. No running back has more receptions for first downs than McCaffrey (174) in that span while only Austin Ekeler (26) and Kamara (20) have more receptions for touchdowns than his 18.
This season, though the Panthers targeted him 43 times in the passing game -- only Ekeler (48) has more among backs -- McCaffrey's production through the air has not been efficient.
He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 17 of his 43 targets. His burn rate of 39.6 per cent is below the league average at his position of 47.6, and he has delivered a big play on 11 per cent of targets (the average this season for backs is 12.7).
Yet his final weeks in Carolina were ones with a team clearly ill-equipped to maximise his talents.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no such problems, with McCaffrey likely to benefit from his new play-caller's ingenuity and from playing alongside another of the league's most versatile offensive weapons.
Doubling up on wide backs
McCaffrey may be the NFL's best pass-catching running back, and he is joining the league's top ball-carrying wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, on the San Francisco offense.
Last season, Samuel set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season, eight of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground.
When lined up as a running back for a downhill carry in 2021, Samuel averaged 6.58 yards per rush. He recorded 4.11 yards before contact per attempt, 2.67 yards after contact and averaged 4.77 yards per attempt on carries where there was a run disruption by a defender, his remarkable proficiency in the self-termed 'wide back' role fuelling San Francisco's surge to the NFC Championship Game.
This season, Samuel has 19 carries from the running back spot and is averaging 6.53 yards per rush and 4.61 yards after contact per attempt.
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
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