George Kittle will be absent for the San Francisco 49ers for the second week in a row, having been ruled out of Sunday's division match-up against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Pro Bowl tight end missed the 49ers' shock Week 1 loss to the Chicago Bears with a groin injury but returned to practice on Friday, though he carried a questionable status.

Kittle has now been officially ruled as inactive for Week 2, marking the fourth consecutive season where he has missed multiple games.

After last week's loss to the Bears, the 49ers are 6-9 in games without Kittle during his career, including losses in six of their last seven without him.

San Francisco have lost four in a row to the Seahawks, who begun their season with a surprising victory against the Denver Broncos in Russell Wilson's return to Seattle.

George Kittle's status for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 2 clash with the Seattle Seahawks is up in the air, with conflicting reports over whether he will play.

Pro Bowl tight end Kittle missed the 49ers' shock Week 1 loss to the Chicago Bears with a groin injury.

Kittle returned to practice on Friday, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reported he is not expected to play as the 49ers look to avoid an 0-2 start in Trey Lance's first season as the starting quarterback.

However, NFL Media's Ian Rapoport labelled Kittle as a "game-time decision". According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Kittle is pushing to play despite the 49ers preparing to once again be without him.

The highlight of the early window of games is the NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints.

Tampa Bay will be without one wide receiver as Chris Godwin misses out because of a hamstring injury, but Mike Evans (calf) is expected to play. Veteran Julio Jones (knee) is questionable and the Bucs reportedly do not expect to know if he will be available until pre-game warm-ups.

Running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) is set to play, but left tackle Donovan Smith is doubtful with an elbow injury.

For the Saints, running back Alvin Kamara is likely to miss out due to a rib injury, but his backup Mark Ingram (ankle) is expected to play, as is quarterback Jameis Winston (back).

In the Sunday night game, the Green Bay Packers are set to welcome back wide receiver Allen Lazard (ankle) for their encounter with the Bears at Lambeau Field.

What a first week of the NFL season that was.

So much drama, so many late twists, and it's almost time to do it all over again as Week 2 looms on the horizon.

Sunday sees Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looking to follow up their opening win against the Dallas Cowboys when they head to New Orleans, the Los Angeles Rams will aim to get on the board when they host the Atlanta Falcons, while Russell Wilson's first home game for the Denver Broncos sees them welcome the Houston Texans.

With all that and more, Stats Perform has used Opta data to preview the weekend's action in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-0)

The Saints have won their last seven regular-season games against the Buccaneers, matching the longest previous winning streak by either team in this rivalry, a run of seven consecutive wins by New Orleans from 2011 to 2014. Tampa Bay did beat the Saints in a Divisional Playoff game following the 2020 season.

Tampa Bay had one interception (by Antoine Winfield Junior) in their season-opening win at Dallas. The Bucs were 11-0 last season in games in which they intercepted at least one pass. The Green Bay Packers (also 11-0) were the only other NFL team to go unbeaten last season in games in which they recorded one or more interceptions.

New Orleans won their season opener in Atlanta, 27-26, after trailing 26-10 in the fourth quarter. It was the first time in franchise history that the Saints won a game in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the fourth quarter, and only the third time they won a game in which they were behind by 16 or more points in the second half.

Tom Brady and the Bucs lost their last game against the Saints, 9-0 (Week 15 last season). That is one of only three times that Brady's team has been shut out in his 317 regular-season and 47 postseason starts in the NFL. The other shutouts were in 2003 (Patriots at Buffalo, 31-0 in Week 1) and 2014 (Patriots at Miami, 21-0 in Week 14).

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

Including their original stint in California and time in St. Louis, the Rams are 28-8-2 (.778) at home against their former NFC West rival, Atlanta Falcons. That is the best home record of any franchise against a single opponent (minimum of 30 games) in NFL history.

Cordarrelle Patterson rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's season opener. At 31 years old, Patterson is the second-oldest player in team history to have 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown run in a game, behind only Warrick Dunn, who had two such games.

The Rams started the season with a 31-10 loss to the Bills, the largest home loss in a season opener ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. The team has not started a season at 0-2 since 2011 when they were in St. Louis and have not lost their first two games as the Los Angeles Rams since 1987.

Cooper Kupp tied a career high with 13 catches in the opener against Buffalo. Including playoffs, Kupp has at least five receptions in each of the Rams' last 22 games. Only Antonio Brown has a longer such streak of team games with five or more catches in the Super Bowl era (37).

Houston Texans (0-0-1) @ Denver Broncos (0-1)

The Texans opened their season with a 20-20 tie against the Indianapolis Colts, despite being outgained by 218 yards in the game. Prior to Houston on Sunday, the last team to tie a game while having 200+ yards less than their opponent was the Packers against the Broncos in 1987.

In his first game with the Texans, O.J. Howard scored touchdowns on each of his two receptions. Howard joins Jaelen Strong as the only players to ever have two TD catches in their team debut for Houston.

Denver committed 12 penalties in their 17-16 loss to the Seahawks on Monday. It was the most penalties the Broncos have ever committed in a season opener, surpassing the 11 penalties they had to kick off the 1970 season against the Bills.

Russell Wilson threw for 340 yards against the Seahawks in his Denver debut. It was the most passing yards by a Broncos QB on their debut with the team and Wilson's 12th career game with 340+ passing yards (his teams are 5-7 in those games).

Elsewhere...

The New England Patriots travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers after suffering a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, and have not started a season with consecutive double-digit losses since losing three straight games by such a margin to begin the 1969 campaign.

Baltimore's Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns against the New York Jets after throwing three or more TDs just twice all of last season. Before they host the Dolphins, it is notable that, in his career, the Ravens are 13-1 when Jackson has three or more pass TDs, the second-best team record among active players behind Josh Allen at 14-1 (minimum 10 such games).

Starting with their 2013 NFC Championship game success over the 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks are 15-2 in their last 17 games against San Francisco, which includes season sweeps in 2020 and 2021. The 15 wins since January 2014 are tied with the Patriots (vs. Jets) for the most by an NFL team against a single opponent in that span (including playoffs).

The Arizona Cardinals will need to watch Davante Adams, who had 10 catches for 141 yards on 17 targets in his Las Vegas Raiders debut. That is the most targets for any player in their first career game with the Raiders in the past 30 seasons. The only other with player with 15+ targets in their Raiders debut over that span is Randy Moss in 2005 (15).

San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell will be sidelined for eight weeks with a knee injury, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan.

Mitchell sprained the MCL in his right knee in Sunday's 19-10 loss to the Chicago Bears, exiting the game in the second quarter.

The 24-year-old running back, who scored seven touchdowns across the 2021 season, had six carries for 41 yards in the game before being ruled out at half-time.

"We're estimating about two months, eight weeks, give or take a few," Shanahan said. "Hopefully, it goes well and it's earlier but you never know with those things, so that's what we're guessing."

Mitchell broke the 49ers' single-season rookie rushing record in 2021, rushing for 963 yards in 11 regular-season games, along with a further 169 yards in the postseason.

"He was pretty down," Shanahan said. "For obvious reasons, we're down for him. Elijah went through a lot last year, it's well documented the injuries he had.

"He really worked hard this offseason. He was feeling really good going into that game and I thought he looked really good before he got hurt.

"And just unfortunate hit that he had. I just tried to tell him to keep his head up. Anybody who would have gotten caught in that situation would have gotten hurt with the way his foot planted in the ground and the guy hit his knee. I think we were just real fortunate it wasn't worse."

Trey Lance conceded the San Francisco 49ers made too many mistakes in their shock opening defeat to the Chicago Bears in a game Kyle Shanahan felt they had control of.

The 49ers were seemingly given a soft landing to start the season by going on the road to face a Bears team starting a rebuild under new head coach Matt Eberflus.

San Francisco looked to be cruising to victory when they led 10-0 early in the third quarter following Robbie Gould's short field goal.

However, Justin Fields' improbable 51-yard touchdown pass to former 49er Dante Pettis on a third-down scramble turned the tide in the Bears' favour.

The Bears scored 19 unanswered points to claim a stunning 19-10 win, with the 49ers unable to mount a comeback after falling behind amid a deluge at Soldier Field.

San Francisco committed two turnovers, a Deebo Samuel fumble in the red zone in the first quarter and a Lance interception that led to the Bears' final touchdown.

The 49ers went one for three in the red zone and had 12 penalties accepted against them for 99 yards, two of which extended Bears scoring drives.

Those mistakes ensured the 49ers lost a game in which they outgained the Bears 331 yards to 204, with Shanahan believing a failure to punch the ball in from the Bears' two-yard line and Fields' subsequent touchdown throw to Pettis to be the turning point.

"We felt very in control... I thought we had every chance to run away with it in those first three quarters, especially those first two drives," Shanahan said. 

"Having a fumble inside the 10, and the next drive getting down there and ending up getting a sack on third down that knocked us out of field goal range.

"Getting all the way down there [in the third quarter] and only come up with the field goal. I thought we had every chance to run away with it. We were going to get it right back to go again, then that penalty on third-and-long gave [the Bears] new life and they scored a touchdown. We never got the momentum back."

Lance pinned much of the blame on himself. Beginning his first season as the Niners' starting quarterback, Lance completed 13 of his 28 passes for 164 yards and an interception and carried the ball 13 times for 54 yards.

The 2021 third overall pick produced some impressive downfield throws but was frustrated by one he missed in the first quarter to tight end Tyler Kroft, who was wide open and likely would have strolled in for a touchdown.

"We made too many mistakes. Defense kept us in the game. I had a big miss to Tyler Kroft in the end zone," said Lance. 

"I tried to throw a perfect ball, but I should've just put it right on him, he was wide open. Turned the ball over, took a sack, then knocked us out of field goal range. I shouldn't have missed Deebo Samuel on the third down, missed another third down to Jauan Jennings – just too many mistakes.

"I have a lot of stuff to clean up for sure. But man, I'm excited. I've still got my head up. I'm excited to get ready to go next week."

The worst game of Joe Burrow's NFL career almost turned into a memorable Week 1 win for the Cincinnati Bengals, who instead blew their chance for an overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals went down 23-20 to the Steelers after missing kicks at the end of regulation and in the additional period that would have secured a winning start.

Instead, Chris Boswell kicked the game-winning field goal for the Steelers in the final seconds of overtime.

Burrow had put the Bengals in position to succeed despite his dismal start, looking nothing like the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year who led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl.

The quarterback had four turnovers before half-time – a career high for an entire game – including a pick-six for Minkah Fitzpatrick from his very first pass.

Burrow finished with four interceptions, a lost fumble and seven sacks, but he also threw two touchdown passes, including one for Ja'Marr Chase that appeared to set up a stunning Bengals win.

However, Fitzpatrick blocked Evan McPherson's PAT, and McPherson missed his target again in overtime.

Boswell similarly squandered a chance to win the game, hitting the left post, but he made amends just as it looked as though the NFL would see two ties in the same week for the first time since Week 2 in 1973, with the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts also tied 20-20.

Browns deny Baker's Panthers

The Bengals were the only team not to win in the AFC North – a division that had it all on Sunday. While Lamar Jackson guided the Baltimore Ravens to victory over the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns celebrated their first Week 1 win since 2004 as former QB Baker Mayfield saw his Carolina Panthers beaten 24-23 by a late field goal.

The Miami Dolphins' 20-7 win over AFC East rivals the Patriots was far more straightforward, with Tua Tagovailoa becoming the first QB to remain unbeaten against Bill Belichick in the regular season having started at least four games against New England.

49ers flounder at sodden Soldier Field

Miserable conditions in Chicago hampered the San Francisco 49ers as they suffered a shock 19-10 loss to the Bears, with Trey Lance's miserable 13-of-28 passing including an awful fourth-quarter interception for a quarterback rating of just 50.3.

Elsewhere in the NFC, Jalen Hurts also did not throw a single touchdown pass in the Philadelphia Eagles' 38-35 victory over the Detroit Lions – he contributed one of four rushing scores – but the QB connected with A.J. Brown for 155 yards on 10 catches. Marquee offseason trade signing Brown had 128 receiving yards before half-time, the most in the first half of a team debut by any non-rookie since at least 1991.

The Trey Lance discussion has been an impossible one to escape during the NFL's long offseason.

That is largely because the circumstances in which he takes his first steps as a starter are unprecedented.

Lance was selected by the 49ers with the third overall pick in last year's draft after they traded three first-round selections for the right to move into that slot.

After a rookie year largely spent watching on the sideline, he now steps in to start at the most important position for a team who were minutes away from reaching a second Super Bowl in three years last season, which ended in heart-breaking defeat to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

Young quarterbacks have taken over Super Bowl-calibre teams in years gone by. Aaron Rodgers took over from Brett Favre in 2008 after the Green Bay Packers had agonisingly lost the NFC Championship Game to the New York Giants in overtime.

But Rodgers had spent three years as Favre's backup in an era where spending an apprenticeship on the bench was de rigueur for highly drafted quarterbacks, and he had previously produced two seasons of stellar play for a Power 5 school during his college career with the Cal Bears.

Lance, by contrast, played just one full season of college ball at North Dakota State in the FCS – college football's second tier – back in 2019, losing the chance to add to his experience as the coronavirus pandemic wiped out his 2020 campaign with the Bison, save for one exhibition that essentially served as a pre-draft audition for the dual-threat signal-caller.

A quarterback of such little experience being given the keys to one of the best teams in the NFL is an objectively fascinating situation, one made even more intriguing by the Niners' decision to hang on to Jimmy Garoppolo, his predecessor, after failing to find a partner for a potential trade.

Rodgers did not have Favre looming as the backup in Green Bay. Favre retired, then came back, but was traded to the New York Jets, leaving Rodgers to plot his path to becoming one of the all-time greats.

Lance will be tasked with keeping a win-now team firmly in contention for a Super Bowl title while dealing with the possibility of the man who twice helped the 49ers to the cusp of the Lombardi Trophy stepping in should he struggle.

The flashes Lance produced in his two starts in relief of an injured Garoppolo last season were promising, but with the 49ers set to kick off their new era against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, can he immediately rise to the challenge of leading the NFL's most interesting team on a deep playoff run they hope will end with a sixth league championship? 

An ideal offensive ecosystem

In order to answer that question, it is important to look at just how strong Lance's supporting cast is.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have put together one of the most complete rosters in the NFL having taken over a team in need of a colossal rebuild in 2017.

Shanahan himself is a key reason for confidence the transition to Lance will work. No play-caller in the NFL does a better job of consistently putting his receivers in space and his quarterback in favourable situations, while his diverse running torments opposing defenses year in, year out.

The league's pre-eminent play-caller also has experience of building an offense around a dual-threat quarterback, having done so while working as offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders under his father Mike as Robert Griffin III produced an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

Shanahan's play-calling acumen is a critical factor in the 49ers' ceaseless efficiency on offense. The 49ers' offense finished last season ranked first in Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) metric. EVE looks at down, distance, yards from goal, quarter, time remaining and score difference. Using those six factors, Stats Perform trained a model to predict yardage output for any game situation. From there, the projected yards are compared to the actual yards gained or prevented in those situations.

But San Francisco's superiority in that metric would not be possible without a star-studded cast of offensive skill-position players, which Stats Perform AI ranks as the sixth-best in the NFL coming into the year.

Between Deebo Samuel, whose ability to excel as a dual wide receiver-running back inspired the Niners' turnaround from a 3-5 team to one who came within a whisker of an eighth Super Bowl appearance, fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro tight end George Kittle, Lance is not short of targets who will make his life much easier.

A run game that ranked eighth in explosive runs of 10 yards or more in 2021 with 58 – a tally Lance's presence will surely embellish – will also provide him with plenty of assistance, as will a defense that has a compelling case for being considered the league's gold standard.

Stellar defensive support

The 49ers' Divisional Round win over the Green Bay Packers last season perhaps provided the clearest evidence yet as to the value of their outstanding defense.

San Francisco shackled back-to-back MVP Rodgers, limiting Green Bay to one touchdown and field goal in an improbable 13-10 road win against the number one seed in the snow at Lambeau Field.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans called a masterful game as the 49ers' defensive front sacked Rodgers five times, and it is the seemingly endless supply of depth on the defensive line that makes Ryans' group arguably the league's most fearsome.

The 49ers led the league in pass rush win rate and did so while blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL (20.4 per cent). That D-line now heads into 2022 arguably in an even stronger position. Nick Bosa, coming off a 15.5-sack season, leads an edge rusher rotation that is six players deep and includes a rookie, in second-round pick Drake Jackson, whose pressure rate of 24.2 per cent was fifth among draft prospects at his position last year. 

On the interior, the 49ers are hoping former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw, with his hulking 6ft 5in, 319-pound frame, can put it all together in his third season following knee surgery and form an imposing tandem with Arik Armstead, whose 2021 stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 44.34 per cent was fifth among defensive tackles (min. 100 matchups).

Behind the D-line, the coverage versatility of a linebacker core headlined by the game's best in Fred Warner opens a wealth of options for Ryans, yet it may be the additions in the secondary that solidify his defense as the league's elite this season.

The 49ers are starting a fifth-round rookie at nickel corner. That is a frightening sentence on the surface, but Samuel Womack III allowed a burn rate – which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted – of just 33.3 per cent in his final year with Toledo. That was tied for the best among draftable corners. He backed up those numbers with a preseason that saw him record two interceptions.

While the 49ers are hoping Womack's leap to the highest level is seamless, it is the performance of free-agent signing Charvarius 'Mooney' Ward that could determine the ceiling of this defense. Ward's burn rate of 39.8 per cent was the fourth-best among corners with at least 50 targets last year, with the former Kansas City Chief fifth in burn yards per target (7.96).

The acquisitions of Ward and Womack have significantly strengthened the cornerback room. Though there is justified concern about a lack of depth at safety, Ward's arrival may facilitate the 49ers leaning more on the man coverage in which he specialises, enabling San Francisco to blitz up front more often and perhaps even improve their pressure numbers from a year ago.

Regardless of whether the pressure statistics do get even better, it is clear Lance is entering an outstanding ecosystem for a young quarterback. The 49ers have the talent to survive the ups and downs he may experience. The unknown is whether Lance can take advantage of his environment to help this team realise their glaringly obvious potential by enhancing an already excellent offense.

Becoming the 'because of' QB

Lance is a substantial departure from what the 49ers are used to at quarterback, and there are upsides and downsides to that change in direction.

There is no question Lance will significantly increase the 49ers' threat on deep passes. Last season, Garoppolo completed just nine passes of 21 air yards or more across the entire 2021 season. Lance completed four in his 10 full quarters of play as a rookie.

On top of that, Lance's air yards per attempt average of 10.1 was the second-highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

While the downfield passing game figures to be more explosive, Lance will need to improve in one area where Garoppolo has traditionally excelled.

Garoppolo has consistently done an impressive job of leading his receivers to the ball on throws over the middle, setting up regular opportunities for yardage after the catch.

Over the last three seasons, Garoppolo has averaged 6.7 yards after the catch (YAC) on his completed passes, almost a full yard more than his nearest challenger Patrick Mahomes (6.0).

The same sort of accuracy on throws where the receivers can relieve the burden on the quarterback with YAC was lacking from Lance during the preseason, and curbing a tendency to put those passes behind his intended target will be critical for him to realise his potential in Shanahan's vaunted offensive scheme.

But Shanahan is making a calculated trade-off in switching to Lance. The 'gimme' plays Garoppolo can hit with ease may not come as easy with Lance, but the 49ers will benefit from the 'second reaction' plays the new quarterback can make when the pocket breaks down.

Though Garoppolo can make throws on the move, the improvisation factor is significantly higher with Lance, who last season averaged a gaudy 13.06 air yards throwing on the run. 

On top of his threat as a downfield passer in such situations, Lance also put 8.45 yards per carry on scrambles in 2021. Only Jameis Winston (8.67) had more among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles.

Lance adds new dimensions to the 49er offense, but he also has shown substantial promise in a staple feature of the Shanahan attack.

Though it was on a small sample size, Lance displayed encouraging accuracy in the play-action game as a rookie. Ten of his 12 play-action throws were well-thrown, with Lance averaging 14.67 air yards on those attempts.

It is far too early to definitively say Lance will continue to be as accurate on play-action over the course of a full season. However, given the effectiveness of the 49er run game, the play-action should still continue to be extremely effective, with Lance's prowess on the ground giving defenders more to think about when he fakes the hand-off.

Former Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox once said: "There are two kinds of quarterbacks. There is what I call the 'because of' quarterback and the 'with' quarterback. You win 'because of' Joe Montana or John Elway. You win 'with' Phil Simms or Doug Williams."

Garoppolo has produced game-winning performances for San Francisco, but while he has operated the offense extremely efficiently, he is firmly in the 'win with' category. In the biggest games where the team has asked him to put them over the top, he has not delivered.

The 49ers moved up for Lance due to their belief he can be a 'because of' quarterback. He may not perform with the same efficiency as Garoppolo, but he has already delivered showings to suggest he can be the decisive factor for a team who have come agonisingly close to glory. Lance's ability to reproduce those flashes over the course of an entire season will determine whether the 49ers were right in their assessment.

The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

Jimmy Garoppolo was as surprised as everyone else to stay with the San Francisco 49ers for the 2022 season.

Garoppolo was expected to be released by the 49ers before Tuesday's deadline for teams to cut their rosters to 53 players ahead of the regular season but instead agreed a renegotiated one-year deal to stay in San Francisco.

The team had attempted to move Garoppolo this offseason as part of the transition to Trey Lance as their starting quarterback, having traded three first-round picks to select the younger man with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

An offseason shoulder injury for Garoppolo did not help matters, though, and he will instead serve as back-up to Lance after 45 starts for the 49ers and a strong 31-14 record.

"[Returning] really wasn't on my mind to be completely honest," Garoppolo said on Thursday, speaking for the first time since the news broke.

"I was training out here. I had to be here, so I was here for that reason. I was just trying to get my body right.

"I felt very confident out there, and I knew that I was ready to roll. I just needed to figure out where it was. Things kind of fell into place these last couple days."

Garoppolo had considered asking to be released by the team but said it "just wasn't the way I wanted to go".

Now, with clauses to prevent him being traded or tagged, the quarterback will have control of his career beyond 2022.

"Trust me, there was a lot of back and forth going on just with other teams and what I wanted my future to look like," he explained. "This is what I wanted."

For now, Garoppolo will continue to work with Lance, who insists that is no issue.

"It's not my decision; it's an organisation decision," Lance said.

"Jimmy's been on the roster this whole entire time. Obviously, I knew it was a possibility of bringing him back.

"There's been no bad blood at all between me and Jimmy since day one. I was all arms open, excited to have him back."

The NFL is all about evolution. The constant fight to gain a decisive advantage, in a league where those who can adapt fastest are kings, consistently leads to sweeping changes every offseason.

While it is the raft of head coaching changes that dominate the headlines when the regular season gives way to 'Black Monday', it is the more granular alterations to a team's approach that can often have the greatest influence on a franchise's fortunes in a given season.

Switches in scheme or a diversion away from a team's long-standing tendencies are regularly brought on by the arrival of a new coaching staff or a change in coordinator, but personnel moves also frequently dictate the approach coaches settle on as they plot a path towards success.

Schematic decisions that may not cause much of a league-wide stir can end up having a huge influence on the outcome of a season, and there are no shortage of such changes that figure to have a significant bearing on the race for the playoffs in 2022.

Here, with the help of its advanced data, Stats Perform looks at five switches in scheme or tendencies that could play a defining role in the coming campaign.

Can McDaniel transform Tua?

The Miami Dolphins' second-half surge in 2021 was tied to their reliance on the run-pass option as they tailored their offense to Tua Tagovailoa's strengths.

Not only were the Dolphins prolific in going to the RPO, they were very effective when they called them.

Miami called a RPO on 12.27 per cent of their pass attempts, the league average was 3.5 per cent. They averaged 7.25 yards per play on RPOs, comfortably above the league average of 5.85.

Given their success on those plays and Tagovailoa's comfort in executing them, RPOs will still be a part of the Miami attack in 2022.

But the usage numbers are unlikely to be as high under new head coach Mike McDaniel, who brings his take on the Kyle Shanahan offense to Miami afer serving as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator last year.

McDaniel will likely reduce the number of straight dropback pass plays for Tagovailoa. The Dolphins ran them on 34 per cent of passes last year, below the league average of 36.1 per cent but well above the 2021 49ers, who used such plays only 22.9 per cent of the time while utilising the quick game on 40.97 per cent of passes compared to 25.97 per cent for the Dolphins.

The arrival of McDaniel will likely tip the balance towards the quick game for Miami in 2022 as he looks to give Tagovailoa easy buttons in the same way Shanahan did for Jimmy Garoppolo, getting the ball into the hands of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill to do damage after the catch.

McDaniel, who was San Francisco's run-game coordinator prior to his promotion last year, will undoubtedly lean on Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and a ground attack certain to be heavily based around inside and outside zone runs to take the burden off Tagovailoa and set up play-action.

Miami used play-action on 14.57 per cent of their passes in 2021, above the average of 12.7 per cent but still trailing the 49ers (15.89 per cent). With Tagovailoa's ability to hit Hill and Waddle downfield with consistent accuracy in question, look for McDaniel to put significant stress on defenses by attracting linebackers up to the line of scrimmage with play-action and then running Hill and Waddle cross-field on horizontal routes at the intermediate levels that are well within his quarterback's range.

Under Shanahan, McDaniel has had an education into scheming his weapons into space, and he should thrive at doing so when running an offense himself for the first time. Tagovailoa's challenge will be to prove he can deliver and make the most of the advantageous situations in which his coach will put him. Fail, and the Dolphins may soon be searching for a new franchise quarterback.

More deep balls and diversity for Niners

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Shanahan has insisted nothing in his playbook has changed as he enters the season with a new starting quarterback, and the 49ers head coach will unexpectedly have the same top two signal-callers as he did last season.

It is the order that has flipped, with Jimmy Garoppolo agreeing a reworked contract for 2022 to be Trey Lance's backup. Regardless of what Shanahan says, the 49ers' approach is likely to be different with Lance under center.

Lance averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt across his 10 full quarters of action last season (he started two games and played the second half when Garoppolo was injured in Week 4), the second-most among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

On the other end of the scale, Garoppolo's 7.38 air yards per attempt were well below the league average of 7.99. Garoppolo attempted just 26 passes of 21 or more air yards the entire season, while 11 of Lance's 70 passes were of that distance.

The scheme isn't changing, but the tendencies certainly will. Lance will be more aggressive and attack downfield more often, likely leading to explosive splash plays that are not necessarily reliant on receivers creating yardage after the catch.

Though the plays may have already been in Shanahan's playbook, there is certain to be more of an emphasis on the threat of the quarterback run with Lance at the helm.

Just 2.62 per cent of the 49ers' run plays came on the zone-read last year, below the league average of 4.2. That number should increase, as should San Francisco's usage of the RPO game, which the Niners used on only 1.09 per cent of pass plays last year but averaged 8.43 yards per play when they did.

With Lance and the running back both threats to run on such plays, defenses will have to account for three possibilites when defending RPOs against the 49ers, exemplifying how much more diverse their offense can become with the 2021 third overall pick under center.

San Francisco's attack will be even more varied and more aggressive in 2022, but it is also likely to be more volatile due to Lance's inferior precision to Garoppolo on the intermediate passes that set up the yards after catch opportunities on which the 49ers have done such damage in recent years. How that volatility impacts the win-loss column will determine whether Garoppolo gets on the field at any point in the final year of his contract.

Vikings look to the 3-4

The Vikings swapped out basically everything this offseason. New general manager, new head coach – who will also be the offensive play-caller – and new defensive coordinator.

Though head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense will be different to the one run by former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the systems are similar enough that Kirk Cousins and Co. are unlikely to endure too much pain in acclimating to the new scheme.

The biggest adjustments will come on the defensive side of the ball, which will be run by Ed Donatell, who spent the last three seasons coordinating Vic Fangio's defense for the Denver Broncos.

The Fangio defense has become the en vogue scheme in the NFL as acolytes such as Brandon Staley have put their spin on it and the two-high safety shells that have been a hallmark of the system have helped limit explosive plays and level the playing field a little in an offense-dominated league.

Denver played Cover 1 robber – which is where a safety from a two-high look drops down into the box to disrupt in-breaking routes in the congested area – as the defense's primary coverage in 2021. The Broncos ran Cover 1 robber 41.87 per cent of the time in a season where the league average was 14.17 per cent.

The Vikings were more varied but still used Cover 1 robber more than any other coverage, relying on it for 21.81 per cent of defensive snaps.

Whether Donatell uses that coverage to the same extent in Minnesota remains to be seen, but the transition for the Vikings' secondary may be a smooth one given how often they ultilised the same shell under Mike Zimmer. 

The most significant change to the defense comes up front, with the Vikings switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

Though defensive fronts are much more hybrid in the modern NFL, the tenets of the 3-4 front are the same. The three-man line is tasked with holding ground and filling up gaps at the point of attack, offering more space to the four linebackers to take better pursuit angles against the run and opening a wide menu of blitz packages against the pass. 

Minnesota's two starting outside linebackers are de-facto edge rushers and both players who should each theoretically thrive in that role. Za'Darius Smith has significant experience with the 3-4 from his time with the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers while the athletic profile of Danielle Hunter – whose 60.5 sacks since 2015 are tied for the seventh-most in the NFL – makes him an ideal candidate to excel as a stand-up pass rusher.

Possessing two impressive space-eating interior defenders in Harrison Phillips and Damon Harrison and an inside linebacker in Eric Kendricks who had five sacks last year, the Vikings have the personnel to continue to succeed rushing the passer despite the change in front. They were 10th in pass rush win rate in 2021, had the sixth-most pressures (291) and the second-most sacks (51).

Despite their joy in getting after the quarterback, the Vikings were 26th in yards per play allowed (5.66), with their struggles tied to a run defense that allowed 51 runs of at least 10 yards. Only 12 teams allowed more. If the switch to the 3-4 helps the Vikings grow more stout against the ground game, then a team with the talent on both sides of the ball to contend for the playoffs will be in a much better position to make noise as a potential Wild Card team.

The Raiders' overdue defensive switch

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new offensive system after hiring Josh McDaniels as their head coach and will also have the benefit of expanded firepower following the blockbuster trade for All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. 

Las Vegas will have the personnel and the offensive scheme to go blow for blow with their high-powered rivals in the AFC West.

The question is whether their defense can do enough to contain their divisional foes, and its success in doing so likely rests on how the Raiders adapt to new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

In 2021, the Raiders only gave up 5.2 yards per play, the ninth-fewest in the NFL; however, former coordinator Gus Bradley's steadfast commitment to single-high Cover 3 defenses saw Las Vegas shredded for 888 net yards in a pair of defeats to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Las Vegas played Cover 3 zone on an incredible 65.79 per cent of snaps last season. The league average was 23.75 per cent.

In his final year as the New York Giants' defensive coordinator, Graham relied heavily on Cover 3, which the Giants used 45.58 per cent of the time. 

But Graham used a wider range of coverages more regularly than his predecessor. The Giants played Cover 1 robber, Cover 2 and Tampa 2 at a rate above the league average.

The Raiders' secondary talent is questionable, but Graham is a coordinator who predominantly plays the coverage with which they are most familiar but is more flexible than Bradley. As such, the transition to Graham should be a relatively smooth one for the Raiders' defensive backfield; however, it will be their ability to excel in a defense that promises to be much more multiple than it was a year ago that determines whether this unit improves.

Las Vegas' defense did not embrace the two-high revolution in 2021. With Graham running a unit that will be tasked with stopping three explosive downfield passers in Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson in the AFC West, such shells will almost certainly become a bigger part of the Raiders' gameplan. How their defenders adapt to playing those coverages more frequently will have a huge bearing on the Raiders' success in competing for top spot in a loaded division.

Will 'Big Red' turn to the run?

As the Raiders perhaps shift towards a more two-high heavy world, the Chiefs' hopes of regaining the Lombardi Trophy will in part be tied to their proficiency in attacking such defenses.

The Chiefs' often exaggerated struggles against two-high coverage shells dominated much of the discussion in the first half of last season as defenses looked for a way to take away the shot play to Tyreek Hill.

By the end of the year, the Chiefs appeared to have solved the riddle and averaged 33.2 points per game over the final six weeks of the regular season.

Yet with Hill gone, the Kansas City offense has lost the reason many opponents not named the Raiders defended them with such coverages.

Defenses are unlikely to suddenly move away from the two-high looks when playing Kansas City now Hill is a Miami Dolphin, and teams will continue to dare Mahomes to take what he is given underneath and attempt to limit his opportunities to go downfield to the deep threats the Chiefs do have, namely Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman.

Mahomes will need to be patient and connect with tight end Travis Kelce and other receivers who should excel attacking the underneath areas such as Juju Smith-Schuster and rookie second-round pick Skyy Moore.

But the Chiefs may also look to run the ball more to get defenses out of those coverages and draw more defenders into the box, opening the deep areas of the field for Mahomes to attack.

Kansas City ran the ball on only 31.8 per cent of offensive snaps last season, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they would succeed if they did so more often.

The Chiefs ranked first in run block win rate in 2021 – their exploits in that regard allowing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to average 3.08 yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-most among running backs with at least 100 attempts – and Kansas City were seventh in yards per play on the ground (4.54). Rookie undrafted free agent Isaiah Pacheco has caught the eye in training camp and could blossom into a dynamic threat out of the backfield.

It is tough to make the case for taking the ball out of Mahomes' hands. However, as defenses continue to present him with more varied and complex looks, there is a need for a greater balance in the Chiefs' offense.

Between using a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire and building an O-line that can produce dominant run-blocking, the Chiefs have spent significant resources on players with the potential to help them achieve that balance by committing to what has been an efficient run game. A modest shift in their offensive tendencies could be the key to the Chiefs getting back to the top of the pile despite the loss of one the league's most fearsome playmakers.

The San Francisco 49ers believe they have two starting quarterbacks after making the decision to retain Jimmy Garoppolo on a reworked contract.

Garoppolo was expected to be released by San Francisco before Tuesday's deadline for teams to cut their rosters to 53 players ahead of the regular season.

Instead, the 49ers and Garoppolo agreed to a rengotiated one-year that, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, is worth $6.5million in base salary and $500,000 in roster bonuses. Garoppolo has incentives for playing time that could be worth up to $9m.

San Francisco had attempted to trade Garoppolo this offseason as part of the transition to Trey Lance as their starting quarterback. The 49ers traded three first-round picks to select Lance with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

But an offseason shoulder surgery contributed to the 49ers' inability to find a trade partner, and Garoppolo – who worked out away from the team during training camp and preseason – will now serve as the backup to Lance.

The 49ers' decision has led to questions about a potentially awkward dynamic between Lance and a starting quarterback predecessor who has a 31-14 record as a starter with the team.

It is a move that has also prompted observers to talk up the prospect for locker room discord if Lance struggles on a team expected to compete to go deep into the playoffs once again, after reaching Super Bowl LIV and last season's NFC Championship Game with Garoppolo as the starter.

However, speaking in a conference call on Tuesday, head coach Kyle Shanahan dismissed the notion of possible disharmony in the quarterback room and the wider locker room.

"That was the only option," Shanahan said, when asked if it was made clear Garoppolo would be the backup. "And we told that to Trey also.

"Trey and Jimmy have a great relationship. Trey actually likes having Jimmy in the building, and Trey was very grateful to how Jimmy was to him last year. And we feel very strongly from the two people that Jimmy will give that back to Trey this year.

"Trey's our starting quarterback. This doesn't change anything. I just feel it makes us a much better team and doesn't hurt our cap like it would have.

"There aren't 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. We believe we have two of them on our roster.

"We felt strongly giving the keys to Trey. I can't wait to get him started on our team Week 1. Having Jimmy as a backup makes us feel really good because we have a starting quarterback as a backup.

"The rest of the league had a chance to get him, and I feel so fortunate that they didn't. There's no way that's bad for our team."

Pressed on why Garoppolo practised away from the team if there was a chance of him staying, Shanahan said: "I think that was because the chances, to me, it seemed slim to none, just with the possibility of that happening.

"I remember the first week of training camp, me saying to Jimmy, 'Hey, if you don't like any of these opportunities, if you don't go to the place you want, you can't get the contract you want, we would love to have you here as a backup, in a backup role, and that deal. I want you to know we feel that way, but I also think there's no way you're not going to get something as this goes throughout training camp.'

"Jimmy agreed with that. And so we waited all throughout training camp. Then, I think as he saw other situations out there, and I think, to me, it just seemed like everyone was just waiting for us to cut him so they could see how much they could get him for.

"But once the last Saturday preseason game happened, and no one got injured, then Jimmy thought this was his best situation that he liked. And that's why we were so pumped because it's obviously a better situation for the Niners."

Jimmy Garoppolo will be staying with the San Francisco 49ers for the 2022 season after signing a reworked one-year contract.

Garoppolo had been widely expected to be released by San Francisco before Tuesday's deadline for teams to trim their rosters to 53 players ahead of the regular season.

San Francisco had attempted to trade Garoppolo this offseason as part of the transition to Trey Lance as their starting quarterback. The 49ers traded three first-round picks to select Lance with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

However, a shoulder surgery for Garoppolo complicated the Niners' plans to trade him, with San Francisco unable to find a partner with which to do a deal.

He has worked out away from the team during training camp and preseason but will now serve as the backup to Lance after coming to an agreement on amended terms with the 49ers.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Garoppolo has agreed to a one-year deal worth $6.5million in base salary and $500,000 in roster bonuses. He has bonuses for playing time that could be worth up to $9m.

It is a move that lowers Garoppolo's salary cap number from nearly $27m to just over $8m, giving the 49ers financial flexibility for potential in-season moves and still giving the former New England Patriot the chance to hit the open market in 2023.

Garoppolo arrived in 2017 in a trade with the Patriots. He has a record of 31-14 as a starter for San Francisco and helped the Niners reach Super Bowl LIV in the 2019 season. He and the 49ers were minutes away from another Super Bowl appearance last season, but lost the NFC Championship Game 20-17 to the Los Angeles Rams. 

The 30-year-old completed 68.3 per cent of his passes for 3,810 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season.

Garoppolo led the league in yards per completion (12.7) and net yards per attempt (7.68) but was heavily reliant on his receivers creating yards after the catch. Lance, who made two starts while Garoppolo was injured last year, is expected to offer greater upside to the 49er offense with his dual-threat skill set that allows him to make downfield throws that are beyond Garoppolo and excel on the ground as a runner.

The 49ers open the season with a road game against the Chicago Bears on September 11.

No one player is bigger than the team. It's a phrase that is most commonly applied to football of the other variety, but it can be a tricky one to throw around in the context of the NFL.

In a game and a league where the quarterback position has an outsized impact, there is no denying there are players whose importance overwhelmingly dwarfs that of their team-mates.

And, for all the work NFL teams do to put together 90-man rosters and then get them down to 53, so many critical games are decided by a handful of key plays by one player.

As the NFL approaches the 2022 regular season, there are a collection of players, not all of whom are quarterbacks, who look almost certain to have a defining influence on the campaign.

Here, with the help of its advanced data, Stats Perform ranks the most important players of the 2022 NFL season.

10. Robert Hainsey - Center, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers' hopes of reclaiming the Lombardi Trophy following Tom Brady's decision to end his 40-day retirement were dealt a massive blow last month when center Ryan Jensen suffered a serious knee injury.

Jensen has been one of the most underrated and pivotal factors behind Brady's success in his two seasons in Tampa. The quarterback's relationship with his center is critical to any offense and Brady has enjoyed an outstanding rapport with Jensen.

Now Jensen's replacement Hainsey must quickly establish a similar connection with Brady if Tampa Bay's offense is to perform at its peak in 2022.

Additionally, Hainsey - a third-round pick in the 2021 draft who played only 29 snaps as a rookie - must attempt to replicate Jensen's performance of last season.

Jensen was 11th among all centers with a stunt-adjusted pass block win rate of 80.66 per cent, while his double team-adjusted run block win rate of 87.92 per cent was the best for his position and second among all offensive linemen.

It is a tall order for Hainsey to reach that level in his first season as a starter. However, it is crucial he ensures the drop-off from Hainsey is not too steep so Brady can keep an offense that was the third-most efficient in the NFL, according to Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) metric, performing at a championship-calibre standard.

9. Nick Chubb - Running Back, Cleveland Browns

The furore around the Deshaun Watson saga is rightfully unlikely to die down any time soon despite the NFL closing the book in the context of league discipline.

With Watson set to be suspended for the first 11 games, the Browns will be walking a tightrope as they bid to stay in contention with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in their starter's absence.

Brissett has a 14-23 record as a starter and last season his well-thrown percentage of 75.8 across his five starts for the Miami Dolphins was the eighth-worst among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

Cleveland may, therefore, need to take the emphasis off Brissett, and the best way for them to do that is by leaning on arguably the premier running back in the NFL. 

The Browns led the NFL with 5.09 yards per carry last season, their success built around Chubb's complete skill set.

Chubb was third among running backs with a minimum of 100 carries with an average of 3.44 yards before contact per rush. He was tied 10th in yards after contact per carry (2.17) and led the NFL in yards per carry on plays where there was a run disruption by a defender, his average of 4.51 illustrating his ability to create yardage for himself even when the defense broke into the backfield.

His performances helped the Browns finish second in yards over expected on running plays and, though an undoubtedly talented defense will do its share of the heavy lifting, Chubb must ensure the devastating efficiency Cleveland displayed on the ground last year is maintained for the offense to perform at a high enough level to keep a team harbouring Super Bowl aspirations in the mix until Watson returns.

8. A.J. Brown - Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's blockbuster draft-day trade for Brown was the clearest signal yet of the Eagles' intention to do everything they can to make Jalen Hurts succeed as their franchise quarterback.

Brown arrived in Philadelphia after racking up 1,000-yard seasons in two of his three campaigns with the Tennessee Titans. He would have had a third had Brown not been forced to miss four games through injury last season, and Brown projects as the ideal receiver to help take Hurts to the next level.

The former Ole Miss star thrived in a Titans offense based heavily around play-action passing concepts.

Meshing with Hurts, who ranked sixth in well-thrown rate (80.4 per cent) on play-action among quarterbacks with at least 50 such throws and averaged a league-leading 16.78 air yards per attempt on those passes, should not be a problem for Brown, who figures to make life significantly easier for his quarterback.

Indeed, Brown gives Hurts a physical wideout who can make tough contested catches over the middle of the field and has the route-running talent to consistently separate from defenders to make big plays. Brown produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 64 per cent of targets (including the playoffs) and was tied for the NFL lead (min. 100 targets) in burn yards per route last season with an average of 4.0.

Everything is seemingly set up for a blissful marriage between quarterback and number one wide receiver. There is a lot of pressure on Hurts to succeed with a loaded offense but, similarly, Brown will be under intense scrutiny as he will be tasked with continuing his outstanding Titans displays and, critically, avoiding any injury problems that could limit the ceiling of a team many anticipate becoming contenders after a flurry of offseason activity. 

7. Davante Adams - Wide Receiver, Las Vegas Raiders

Adams made a decision that changed the landscape of both the NFC and AFC when he eschewed the chance to stay with the Packers to sign a five-year, $141.25million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders following a trade that allowed him to reunite with college quarterback Derek Carr.

While Aaron Rodgers must adapt and excel without his long-time favourite target in Green Bay, Adams starts his new era in Las Vegas under tremendous pressure to live up to his megadeal.

The numbers from his time in Green Bay suggest he should have no problem doing so. 

Adams is second in receiving yards (3,924) and touchdowns (34) over the past three seasons. With an above-league average burn rate of 65.6 per cent last season, Adams was fifth in burn yards per route (3.5) among receivers with a minimum of 100 targets (including the playoffs). He was second (3.4) and first (3.9) in the same metric in 2019 and 2020.

His consistency in creating significant separation from defenders must continue in his new home for the Raiders' big swing to pay dividends in an AFC West division now widely regarded as the best in the league following a series of high-profile moves by all its inhabitants.

Moreover, Adams must re-establish the rapport he had in college with Carr, who had a well-thrown rate of 81.6 per cent that was third among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts in 2021.

Carr has the accuracy to reap the benefits of playing with Adams as Rodgers did. As long as the change of scenery does not provoke a surprising Adams downturn, the Raiders will have the arsenal to match the fireworks their division rivals can produce.  

6. Aaron Donald - Defensive Tackle, Los Angeles Rams

To label Donald as an important player is arguably the most obvious statement that can be made about the NFL.

But, with significant doubt hanging over the fitness of the Los Angeles Rams' star quarterback Matthew Stafford, there may be an onus on Donald to carry the burden of helping them repeat as Super Bowl champions.

While Stafford is still expected to play in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills, he has spent the offseason dealing with an elbow issue head coach Sean McVay conceded is "abnormal" for a quarterback.

That at least creates the possibility of Stafford enduring injury-related poor performances or even missing time if it is eventually determined he requires surgery.

Playing in an NFC West division that houses a fellow NFC heavyweight in the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams can ill-afford to have any such scenario result in prolonged struggles.

Thankfully for the Rams, Donald is as impactful as Stafford when it comes to deciding games, as he did in Super Bowl LVI with his key fourth-down pressure of Joe Burrow.

Donald comfortably led all defensive tackles in both pressure rate (28.1 per cent) and run disruption rate (37.2) last season. No other defensive tackle with a pressure rate of 20 per cent or better had a run disruption rate of 30 per cent or higher.

With the spectre of possible quarterback injury issues hanging over the Rams, it is imperative Donald continues to produce his frequently game-winning destruction for Los Angeles to mitigate the influence of any such problems.

5. Von Miller - Edge Rusher, Buffalo Bills

The Bills famously failed to finish off the Kansas City Chiefs in last season's epic Divisional Round playoff clash as inexplicably soft defensive play-calling allowed Kansas City to move into range for a game-tying field goal in the final 13 seconds of regulation.

Yet one of the reasons it got to that point was the Bills' failure to convert their pressures of Patrick Mahomes into damaging sacks.

Buffalo registered 23 pressures of Mahomes, the most by any defensive team in the Divisional Round, but managed to get him on the ground just twice.

That performance will surely have had some influence on the decision to sign Miller to a lucrative six-year contract following his Super Bowl-winning sojourn with the Rams.

Miller's 115.5 sacks since entering the league in 2011 are the most in the NFL, and he proved he is still one of the best pressure generators in the NFL in 2021. His stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 43.4 per cent was the fifth-highest among edge rushers with at least 100 one on one matchups.

The Bills can be confident Josh Allen and the offense will put them in a position to contend, but it is Miller's addition to a defense with few holes that may be the move to get them over the top.

Buffalo made a big bet on Miller maintaining his outstanding 2021 form. It is imperative that gamble pays off and, if some of his wisdom from years at the top rubs off on young edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham, the Bills will be extremely satisfied with their decision to put faith in the former Denver Bronco.

4. Patrick Mahomes - Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs

While the likes of the Raiders and the Bills are plotting to do what the Cincinnati Bengals did in last season's AFC Championship Game and topple the Chiefs, Mahomes and Co. are set to face internal challenges in their bid to remain atop the AFC West.

The primary challenge for the Chiefs will be to replace the impact of Tyreek Hill, the three-time first-team All-Pro speedster sent to the Miami Dolphins in a blockbuster trade.

Hill's threat as a downfield receiver tormented opposing defenses during his time in Kansas City, and he was second among receivers with at least 100 targets with a burn rate of 70.8 per cent (including the playoffs) in 2021.

Though the Chiefs did sign a replacement burner in the form of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the absence of Hill's game-breaking speed will likely force Mahomes to target underneath areas more frequently.

Mahomes was already forced to adapt in such a fashion last season to combat the two-high safety defenses thrown at the Chiefs by teams looking to nullify Kansas City's big-play threat.

Kansas City's struggles against such defenses served as one of the defining narratives of last season. It was a narrative, however, that was somewhat exaggerated and the Chiefs had clearly hit their stride by the end of the year.

Across the final five weeks of the season, the Chiefs averaged 283.6 net passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. They hit a significant speed bump in the second half of the conference title game, but Mahomes has had plenty of time to brush off that disappointment and needs to rediscover his best without one of his key support acts for the Chiefs to be the class of a stacked conference in 2022.

3. Lamar Jackson - Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens

Amid a flurry of big-money deals for quarterbacks and receivers alike, one high-profile contract saga has remained unsettled.

There has been no sign of an imminent agreement between the Ravens and Jackson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2023 unless they can come to terms on an extension.

To say Jackson is important to the Ravens is to put it extremely mildly. He finished in the top five in Efficiency Versus Expected among quarterbacks in expected passing situations in 2019 and 2020 before an injury derailed 2021 campaign and, since taking over as the Ravens' starter in 2019, has averaged more yards per carry (6.36) than any other player in the NFL.

With 103 of his 468 rush attempts going for 10 yards or more, Jackson's explosive run rate of 22 per cent also stands as the best in the NFL over that same period.

Jackson's success in harnessing the dual-threat upside, as he did in spectacular fashion three years ago, will decide if the Ravens return to prominence in the AFC after the frustration of 2021.

Beyond that, however, the extent to which he nears his 2019 zenith could have a huge bearing on his negotiations with the Ravens next offseason should the impasse continue.

If Jackson performs at a level close to his MVP season, the Ravens will be facing the prospect of making him the highest-paid player in the NFL by a potentially massive margin in 2023. An unconvincing and unsuccessful season for Jackson may see him lose a lot of leverage.

2. Aaron Rodgers - Quarterback, Green Bay Packers

It was an offseason of contrasting emotions for the back-to-back MVP, who looks in line to finish his career in Green Bay after signing a three-year, $150.8m deal that made him the highest-paid player in US sports on an annual basis but must renew his quest for a second Super Bowl title without Adams.

The prospect of trying to climb the mountain sans Adams looks a daunting one considering their remarkable rapport and the fact Rodgers couldn't hit anyone but him during the Packers' Divisional Round loss to the 49ers last season.

Rodgers has to establish a connection with two young rookie receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, the latter of whom has enjoyed a sparkling preseason.

Green Bay still made moves to make Rodgers' life easier, though that impact may be less tangible than the one he and Adams produced consistently.

The Packers built up an increasingly talented defense in the draft, adding to their options on that side of the ball and improving the odds of Rodgers coming on to the field with favourable field position.

His receiving options may have changed dramatically, but Rodgers has no room to offer excuses given the apparent strength of the defense.

The 38-year-old's ridiculous consistency is fuelling thoughts of him going deep into his 40s, a la Brady; however, Rodgers' time to win a second ring is running out. After enjoying dominant season after dominant season with Adams as his top receiver, the challenge for the four-time MVP now is to elevate a young and unproven supporting cast as he seeks to right previous playoff wrongs.

1. Trey Lance - Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers

A team that was minutes away from a second Super Bowl appearance in three years handing the keys to the offense over to a quarterback with just two starts to his name? It sounds risky, and there is an inherent danger in San Francisco moving into the Trey Lance era.

But this is why the Niners traded three first-round picks to the Dolphins to move up to the third pick in the 2021 draft to select Lance. There is risk, yet it is unquestionably worth the potential reward.

Lance will be taking over an offense that finished the 2021 season first in Efficiency Versus Expected, a testament to the plethora of talent on that unit, Jimmy Garoppolo's comfort in the offense and the play-calling of Kyle Shanahan.

The task for Lance is to weaponise the deep passing game of one of the most consistent and dangerous attacks in the NFL. While San Francisco might have to sacrifice some efficiency for him to succeed, the numbers indicate he is up to the job.

Garoppolo had eight pass plays of 40 yards or more across 15 games in 2021. Lance produced three in his two starts in relief of his injured predecessor.

On top of that, Lance averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt – the second most in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 50 passes – and no player to average at least 9.0 air yards had a better well-thrown percentage than Lance's 77.1.

The prospect of Lance reproducing that blend of aggressiveness and accuracy over a longer sample size while adding another dimension to a running game that racked up the eighth-most explosive rushes of at least 10 yards in 2021 should terrify opponents.

San Francisco's roster is filled with Pro Bowlers on offense and the Niners have further stacked a defense that forced the most negative plays (122) in the NFL last season with reinforcements up front and in the secondary.

The 49ers have a Super Bowl-ready roster but, for all his success, Garoppolo has been unable to get them over the hump to a long-awaited sixth title.

Lance has the upside to end that wait and the Niners may well become Super Bowl favourites if he is as advertised. Should he flounder, a prospective challenger could be removed from the NFC playoff picture. Simply put, there is no player more important to the hopes of a legitimate contender in the NFL.

Trey Lance has the belief of Kyle Shanahan, but the San Francisco 49ers' head coach does not believe his starting quarterback will "make or break" their 2022 season.

Lance will be the Niners' starter in 2022, replacing Jimmy Garoppolo, who is likely to be released when rosters are trimmed to 53 players if San Francisco cannot find a trade partner.

San Francisco reached Super Bowl LIV with Garoppolo as the starter in the 2019 campaign and narrowly lost last season's NFC Championship Game with the former New England Patriot under center.

However, the Niners traded three first-round picks to move up to the third overall pick in the 2021 draft and select Lance out of North Dakota State, believing him to have the physical gifts and the mental attributes to take their offense to the next level.

They will now see their assessment of Lance put to the test across a full season. Lance started two games in relief of an injured Garoppolo last year and, prior to that, had only one full season of college football under his belt. That came in 2019 when he threw for 28 touchdowns and ran for a further 14 without throwing a single interception as Lance led North Dakota State to an FCS National Championship.

That lack of seasoning makes Lance one of the biggest unknowns of the 2022 season, but head coach Shanahan does not think his performance will be the defining factor for an extremely well-rounded team harbouring Super Bowl aspirations.

"Is Trey ready to take it on his shoulders?" Shanahan told Peter King's Football Morning in America. "He shouldn't be. He hasn't gone through it enough.

"I believe in him as a man, as a person. I believe in his talent. I don't think he is going to make or break our season, just like in 2019 and last year, I didn't think Jimmy was going to make or break our season."

Shanahan, though, suggested attempting to deliver for a team under pressure to win a sixth Super Bowl title after going agonisingly close in two of the last three seasons could negatively impact Lance.

"But what sucks is when you're learning how to play and you're not there yet, how do you not get worse sometimes when that pressure's on you and you need to go through the growing pains?" Shanahan added.

Lance went 1-1 as a starter last year, throwing for 603 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions in his brief time on the field. He also ran for 168 yards and a touchdown.

According to Stats Perform data, Lance was the second-most aggressive quarterback in the NFL in terms of pushing the ball downfield. Among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts, only Drew Lock (10.20) averaged more air yards than Lance (10.10). 

Lance was still accurate despite regularly attempting low-percentage throws. No player to average at least 9.0 air yards had a better well-thrown rate than Lance, who delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 77.1 per cent of his attempts.

In his first preseason game of 2022, Lance played two offensive series, completing four of his five passes for 92 yards including a 76-yard touchdown to rookie wide receiver Danny Gray in a 28-21 win over the Green Bay Packers.

Lance will take part in joint practices between the 49ers and Minnesota Vikings this week but will not play in Saturday's second preseason game.

The New York Jets have had a nightmare start to their preseason with second-year quarterback Zach Wilson limping out of Friday's 24-21 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Wilson suffered a right knee injury in the first quarter, buckling without contact as he scrambled out of the pocket trying to outrun a tackler.

The 23-year-old Jets QB fell, got up limping, before dropping to the turf again and exiting for the locker room.

Wilson had thrown an interception on the Jets' fifth play, finishing the game completing three of five passes for 23 yards.

The injury concern is to the same knee that he sustained a PCL sprain last season, causing him to miss four games.

Jets head coach Robert Saleh revealed Wilson would have an MRI on Saturday to determine the extent of the injury but said his ACL was "supposed to be intact".

The Jets have high hopes for their 2021 NFL Draft second pick, building their roster around him this offseason, having bolstered their offensive ranks with tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin and drafting wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.

Wilson had a difficult rookie season with a 3-10 record, completing 213 of 383 attempts for nine touchdowns and 2,334 yards with 11 interceptions for a 55.6 completion rate.

There were other injury worries from Friday's preseason games with Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London hurting his right knee in their 27-23 win over the Detroit Lions.

San Francisco 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell watched on in their clash with the Green Bay Packers after suffering a hamstring injury during their camp.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Brandon Allen, covering for Joe Burrow who is recovering from an appendectomy, was ruled out due to a concussion in their 36-23 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.