Not every NFL week is going to be filled with great games. The law of averages says there will be some clunkers.
But it only takes one game to spice up a Sunday, and Week 7 has such a contest in the form of a Super Bowl rematch.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV three seasons ago, the Niners failing to finish the job in Miami having led 20-10 with seven minutes remaining.
San Francisco's first chance for a measure of revenge comes on Sunday, when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a game SmartRatings sees as the best of the week.
SmartRatings is a Stats Perform AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Here, we take a look at Chiefs-49ers clash in the Bay Area and two other games viewed as the most exciting of Week 7 and the key matchups that could decide them.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
SmartRating: 54
Win Probability: Packers 74.2%
Key Matchup: Allen Lazard vs. Washington cornerbacks
Randall Cobb's injury means Aaron Rodgers has even fewer receivers he can trust, so Lazard can expect plenty of targets to come his way as the Packers look to end a two-game losing run.
The numbers suggest Lazard will be able to find joy against a vulnerable Washington secondary.
Lazard has won his matchup with a defender, which Stats Perform labels as a 'burn', on 21 of his 32 targets. His burn rate of 65.6 per cent is above the league average of 60.6 for receivers with a minimum of 20 targets.
He has produced a big play on 12 of those targets, good for a big play rate of 37.2 that is 10th among wideouts (min. 20 targets).
Washington's starting corners, Benjamin St. Juste and Kendall Fuller, have allowed 12.27 and 13.15 burn yards per target respectively -- the average for corners with at least 20 targets is 10.05.
Both have given up a big play on over 30 per cent of their targets -- St. Juste (31.3%), Fuller (36%) -- at a position where the average is 25.5. In other words, Rodgers and Lazard should theoretically be able to thrive against both starting corners. If they do, the Packers' passing game might finally get on track and boost Green Bay's hopes of a deep playoff push many anticipated before their underwhelming start.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
SmartRating: 60
Win Probability: Colts 54.4%
Key Matchup: Jeffery Simmons vs. Quenton Nelson
The AFC South is turning into a dogfight, with the 3-2 Titans leading the 3-2-1 Colts by half a game going into this divisional clash.
For the Colts to make sure the tie with the Houston Texans that separates them and the Titans does not prove costly down the stretch, they need to knock off Tennessee.
Doing that will involve stopping Jeffery Simmons, who has been a force on the interior of the Tennessee defense.
Simmons has beaten a pass protector on 18 of his 23 pressures this season. Only four interior defensive linemen have defeated a blocker on a pressure more often.
However, the Colts have a left guard in Quenton Nelson who has once again been one of the NFL's elite at his position in 2022.
Nelson has allowed a pressure on just 3.1 per cent of his pass protection snaps, giving him the sixth-best pressure rate among guards with at least 100 snaps this season.
The Colts will at least need to slow down Simmons for their passing game to prosper as it did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the heavyweight battle between two former first-round picks in the heart of the trenches could well decide who takes command of the division.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 71
Win Probability: Chiefs 50.7
Key Matchup: Fred Warner vs. Chiefs offense
A Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming off losses was made spicier with the news of San Francisco's blockbuster trade for running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday.
But McCaffrey is unlikely to have much of an impact if he does play on Sunday given the limited time he has had to absorb the 49er playbook.
More key to the 49ers' hopes of at least partially avenging their Super Bowl collapse is the performance of a player who intercepted Mahomes in that game, Fred Warner.
The 2020 first-team All-Pro is the organisational heartbeat of the 49er defense, the man who plays a pivotal role in ensuring DeMeco Ryans' group is ultra-disciplined and consistently in the right position to make plays.
That discipline fell down in Week 6 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, in which an extremely banged-up defense struggled to handle the Falcons' array of motions and zone-read runs involving quarterback Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco will get back a host of players from injury this weekend and the defense must do a better job of handling motion against an offense that heavily relies on it and will have to be alert to Mahomes' running threat, which for defenses is a frustrating complement to the wondrous things he can do throwing the ball.
Still, with no Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' avenues to explosive plays are not as plentiful as they once were, and the 49ers will likely approach Kansas City in a similar way to the Buffalo Bills defense last week, leaning on two-high safety zone coverages in an attempt to force Mahomes to attack underneath.
Warner has allowed receivers to get open in zone coverage on just 10.87 per cent of his zone plays, his zone open rate the best in the NFL among linebackers. With his acumen in that area of the game and the athleticism he possesses to run downfield with Mahomes' primary target Travis Kelce, a bounce-back effort from Warner will be crucial to San Francisco's hopes of overturning odds that are slightly in Kansas City's favour.
Travis Etienne keen to ‘put on great show’ on Jacksonville Jaguars’ London trip
Star running back Travis Etienne wants to “put on a great show” as the Jacksonville Jaguars make NFL history by playing back-to-back games in London.
The UK has long been a home away from home for the Florida franchise, who are breaking new ground by becoming the first team to play two regular season games outside of the United States.
The Jaguars kick off the 2023 International Games on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons at Wembley – their 10th game in England as part of a multi-year commitment to play in the region.
Doug Pederson’s side remain in London to face the Buffalo Bills at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium next weekend as part of an unprecedented 10-day stay that the talented Etienne is relishing.
View this post on Instagram“I feel this could be a time for us to rally together and just kind of grow, continue to build and just come together as a team,” the 24-year-old running back told the PA news agency.
“When we leave there, I want them to know the Jaguars were here, and we put on a great show and they can’t wait to see us again.
“I feel like it’s going to be an exciting time in London.”
It is a decade since the Jags first played in England and owner Shahid Khan told PA last year that the “goal is for London and the UK to always be a part of the Jacksonville Jaguars identity”.
Khan also said “we’ve been clear in our commitment to play a home game in London every year”, with Etienne getting his first taste of it in last October’s Wembley loss to the Denver Broncos.
“I really became aware of that (fanaticism) last year when I took my first trip out there to play the game,” he said of the 21-17 defeat in which he scored a touchdown.
“It was a tremendous experience for me just being in London for the first time and having a chance to go out there and showcase my skillset to the world.
“I took a loss on my first trip, so this trip I want to leave win a win.
“It’ll make me feel so much better and then have an opportunity to get two wins is going to be awesome.”
Last year’s London loss came during a five-game losing streak – the lowest point in a season that ended with the AFC South crown and stunning wild-card comeback win in a playoff run that ended in the divisional round.
It was quite the turnaround for a team that had recorded the NFL’s worst regular season record in the previous two seasons and led to heightened expectations this time around.
The Jags have begun 2023 sluggishly and are hoping to get back in the groove in London following losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and, more alarmingly, the unfancied Houston Texans.
“This was only week three and we have 14 more games ahead of us, so we can’t let this bleed into other games,” Etienne said.
“We have to understand that this is not last season. We have to put last season to bed.
“We have to focus on this season because the reality of the situation is we’re 1-2 right now and we haven’t been very good this season.
“Last season means nothing. If anything, last year put a target on our back so we’re going to get everybody’s best shot, so we have to go out there and give everybody our best shot each and every day we step on that field.”
David Montgomery hat-trick lifts Detroit Lions over Green Bay Packers
Three touchdowns from running back David Montgomery lifted the Detroit Lions to a 34-20 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
Montgomery found the endzone twice in the first half and again in the fourth quarter to clinch the visitors’ third win of the season.
The Packers were able to impact the scoreboard early, gaining a 3-0 lead with a field goal from their opening drive.
However, they had to wait a long time between drinks from there, as the Lions hit back with three touchdowns and two field goals to take a 27-3 lead into half-time.
Green Bay were able to stem the tide in the third quarter, holding Detroit to nil while picking up a touchdown through wide receiver Christian Watson.
They inched closer at the start of the fourth thanks to a nine-yard touchdown run from quarterback Jordan Love, but their comeback bid was officially ended when Montgomery picked up his third touchdown with six minutes remaining.
Love finished with 246 passing yards to go along with a touchdown and two interceptions, while Detroit quarterback Jared Goff threw for 210 yards, a touchdown and an interception of his own.
Bucks confident of returning to the top after Lillard trade
Damian Lillard will be tasked with helping the Milwaukee Bucks return to the top of the NBA after his trade from the Portland Trail Blazers.
Star guard Lillard signed for the Bucks on Wednesday in a three-way trade – which also included the Phoenix Suns – that saw Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton and Toumani Camara on the move too.
Lillard leaves Portland after 11 years with the Trail Blazers. He is a seven-time All-Star and enjoyed a career-best season in 2022-23, averaging 32.2 points and 7.3 assists, though he did sit out the final month of the season due to injury.
Now, the Bucks – the 2021 NBA Champions – will be hoping that Lillard can combine with two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to push them towards another title, following a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the Miami Heat in last season's playoffs.
Fast Fact
Despite missing the last 10 games of the season, Lillard (1,866) was Portland's highest points scorer last term by over 500, with Anfernee Simons next best for the Trail Blazers with 1,306.
Lillard a difference-maker
"His character, competitiveness, talent and experience complement our group and gives us the best chance to win at the very highest level as we create new memories together," Bucks general manager Jon Horst said of Lillard.
So, does Lillard have what it takes to make the difference for the Bucks?
Lillard leaves Portland as a franchise great. He ranks first in team history in points and three-pointers and second in assists. Including the playoffs, he had 17 games with 50+ points for the Blazers. All other players in franchise history have only combined for seven 50-point games. He is a big-game player, and he should help ease the burden on Antetokounmpo.
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