Not every NFL week is going to be filled with great games. The law of averages says there will be some clunkers.
But it only takes one game to spice up a Sunday, and Week 7 has such a contest in the form of a Super Bowl rematch.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV three seasons ago, the Niners failing to finish the job in Miami having led 20-10 with seven minutes remaining.
San Francisco's first chance for a measure of revenge comes on Sunday, when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a game SmartRatings sees as the best of the week.
SmartRatings is a Stats Perform AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Here, we take a look at Chiefs-49ers clash in the Bay Area and two other games viewed as the most exciting of Week 7 and the key matchups that could decide them.
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
SmartRating: 54
Win Probability: Packers 74.2%
Key Matchup: Allen Lazard vs. Washington cornerbacks
Randall Cobb's injury means Aaron Rodgers has even fewer receivers he can trust, so Lazard can expect plenty of targets to come his way as the Packers look to end a two-game losing run.
The numbers suggest Lazard will be able to find joy against a vulnerable Washington secondary.
Lazard has won his matchup with a defender, which Stats Perform labels as a 'burn', on 21 of his 32 targets. His burn rate of 65.6 per cent is above the league average of 60.6 for receivers with a minimum of 20 targets.
He has produced a big play on 12 of those targets, good for a big play rate of 37.2 that is 10th among wideouts (min. 20 targets).
Washington's starting corners, Benjamin St. Juste and Kendall Fuller, have allowed 12.27 and 13.15 burn yards per target respectively -- the average for corners with at least 20 targets is 10.05.
Both have given up a big play on over 30 per cent of their targets -- St. Juste (31.3%), Fuller (36%) -- at a position where the average is 25.5. In other words, Rodgers and Lazard should theoretically be able to thrive against both starting corners. If they do, the Packers' passing game might finally get on track and boost Green Bay's hopes of a deep playoff push many anticipated before their underwhelming start.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
SmartRating: 60
Win Probability: Colts 54.4%
Key Matchup: Jeffery Simmons vs. Quenton Nelson
The AFC South is turning into a dogfight, with the 3-2 Titans leading the 3-2-1 Colts by half a game going into this divisional clash.
For the Colts to make sure the tie with the Houston Texans that separates them and the Titans does not prove costly down the stretch, they need to knock off Tennessee.
Doing that will involve stopping Jeffery Simmons, who has been a force on the interior of the Tennessee defense.
Simmons has beaten a pass protector on 18 of his 23 pressures this season. Only four interior defensive linemen have defeated a blocker on a pressure more often.
However, the Colts have a left guard in Quenton Nelson who has once again been one of the NFL's elite at his position in 2022.
Nelson has allowed a pressure on just 3.1 per cent of his pass protection snaps, giving him the sixth-best pressure rate among guards with at least 100 snaps this season.
The Colts will at least need to slow down Simmons for their passing game to prosper as it did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the heavyweight battle between two former first-round picks in the heart of the trenches could well decide who takes command of the division.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 71
Win Probability: Chiefs 50.7
Key Matchup: Fred Warner vs. Chiefs offense
A Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming off losses was made spicier with the news of San Francisco's blockbuster trade for running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday.
But McCaffrey is unlikely to have much of an impact if he does play on Sunday given the limited time he has had to absorb the 49er playbook.
More key to the 49ers' hopes of at least partially avenging their Super Bowl collapse is the performance of a player who intercepted Mahomes in that game, Fred Warner.
The 2020 first-team All-Pro is the organisational heartbeat of the 49er defense, the man who plays a pivotal role in ensuring DeMeco Ryans' group is ultra-disciplined and consistently in the right position to make plays.
That discipline fell down in Week 6 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, in which an extremely banged-up defense struggled to handle the Falcons' array of motions and zone-read runs involving quarterback Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco will get back a host of players from injury this weekend and the defense must do a better job of handling motion against an offense that heavily relies on it and will have to be alert to Mahomes' running threat, which for defenses is a frustrating complement to the wondrous things he can do throwing the ball.
Still, with no Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' avenues to explosive plays are not as plentiful as they once were, and the 49ers will likely approach Kansas City in a similar way to the Buffalo Bills defense last week, leaning on two-high safety zone coverages in an attempt to force Mahomes to attack underneath.
Warner has allowed receivers to get open in zone coverage on just 10.87 per cent of his zone plays, his zone open rate the best in the NFL among linebackers. With his acumen in that area of the game and the athleticism he possesses to run downfield with Mahomes' primary target Travis Kelce, a bounce-back effort from Warner will be crucial to San Francisco's hopes of overturning odds that are slightly in Kansas City's favour.
Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Leipzig: Visitors fightback halts unbeaten streak for Alonso's side
Bayer Leverkusen suffered their first defeat in 36 Bundesliga matches, as Leipzig came from behind to stun Xabi Alonso's side 3-2 at BayArena.
Lois Openda struck twice for Marco Rose's, who recovered from 2-0 down to make it two wins from two and move to the summit of the table.
It looked like business as usual for the reigning Bundesliga champions when they scored twice in the last seven minutes of the first half through Jeremie Frimpong and Alejandro Grimaldo.
However, Leipzig replied deep into first-half stoppage time with Kevin Kampl reducing the deficit.
Openda then brought the visitors level in the 57th minute, before a stunning long-range strike completed the turnaround 10 minutes from time, condemning Leverkusen to their first league defeat in 15 months.
Data Debrief: Leverkusen's long streak comes to a shuddering halt
Leipzig became the first side to beat Leverkusen in a Bundesliga match since Bochum achieved the feat a staggering 462 days earlier.
The visitors have begun a Bundesliga season with two wins from two for only the second time, also doing so in 2019-20.
They are also now unbeaten in 13 league matches, their longest such streak since Rose took charge.
As for Leverkusen, their invincible streak is officially history, as is their 29-game unbeaten run on home soil.
'We really let ourselves down' - Coleman slams Everton after late Bournemouth collapse
Seamus Coleman acknowledged Everton "really let ourselves down" and must "look at ourselves in the mirror" following their spectacular late collapse against Bournemouth.
Sean Dyche's side, who were seeking their first points of the season, led 2-0 in the 87th minute at Goodison Park through goals from Michael Keane and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
However, the hosts were undone by three crosses in the latter stages, with Antoine Semenyo pulling a goal back and Lewis Cook levelling, before Luis Sinisterra completed a sensational turnaround in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
Boos rung around Goodison Park as the Toffees remained pointless and rooted to the foot of the Premier League table, and Coleman echoed the supporters' frustrations.
"We really let ourselves down in front of our fans," the skipper said. "We cannot take our foot off the gas at this level. Unfortunately, we did that.
"We cannot be conceding the goals that we did. We have to look at ourselves in the mirror."
Meanwhile, Dyche bemoaned the lack of responsibility amongst his players, as they became the first side in Premier League history to lose a game after leading by two or more goals in the 87th minute.
"We did so much right until they scored their first goal," the Everton head coach said. "The game should have been out of sight. We conceded one and then threw it away. I can't put my finger on it right now.
"They kept raining it forward and got their reward in the end. They were playing it forward and crossing it into the box, and we didn't deal with it. Simple stuff, but we threw it away. It is the third game we have thrown away this season.
"Everyone was looking at someone else to deal with things and that is when there is trouble. You could see the body language change. You have to see games through, and we have enough experience to do that, but today we didn't."
Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola added: "It was the worst game we played this season. Everton deserved to win today, but the players kept pushing.
"I always have hope because this team has spirit. We have done it before and had some good comebacks. The spark of the first goal made us believe we could do it again."
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves: Bellegarde beauty earns visitors first point
Wolves earned their first point of the Premier League season following a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest.
Chris Wood's towering header was cancelled out by Jean-Ricner Bellegarde's stunning strike as the spoils were shared at the City Ground.
The hosts took the lead in the 10th minute as Wood rose to nod home from Elliot Anderson's corner.
However, the visitors were level just two minutes later in spectacular fashion, with Bellegarde firing a stunning long-range volley into the roof of the net.
Gary O'Neil's side had Sam Johnstone to thank after the break, with the debutant producing a strong hand to deny Wood his second goal of the game.
Matheus Cunha curled a shot just wide while the offside flag denied Wood later on, with Forest unable to snatch victory but extending their unbeaten start to the campaign.
Data Debrief: Wolves end losing streak while Wood matches Collymore
After opening the season with two defeats and eight goals conceded, Wolves stopped the rot with a welcome point against their Midlands rivals, while ending a five-game Premier League losing streak in the process.
Meanwhile, Forest remain unbeaten in their opening three games of a top-flight season for the first time since 1995-96.
Heading his side into the lead, Wood became only the second Forest player to score in both their first two home matches in a Premier League season since Stan Collymore 30 years previously.
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