NFL

Warner crucial for 49ers in Super Bowl rematch - The key matchups that will decide Week 7's best games

By Sports Desk October 22, 2022

Not every NFL week is going to be filled with great games. The law of averages says there will be some clunkers.

But it only takes one game to spice up a Sunday, and Week 7 has such a contest in the form of a Super Bowl rematch.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV three seasons ago, the Niners failing to finish the job in Miami having led 20-10 with seven minutes remaining.

San Francisco's first chance for a measure of revenge comes on Sunday, when the 49ers host the Chiefs in a game SmartRatings sees as the best of the week.

SmartRatings is a Stats Perform AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).

Here, we take a look at Chiefs-49ers clash in the Bay Area and two other games viewed as the most exciting of Week 7 and the key matchups that could decide them.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders

SmartRating: 54

Win Probability: Packers 74.2%

Key Matchup: Allen Lazard vs. Washington cornerbacks

Randall Cobb's injury means Aaron Rodgers has even fewer receivers he can trust, so Lazard can expect plenty of targets to come his way as the Packers look to end a two-game losing run.

The numbers suggest Lazard will be able to find joy against a vulnerable Washington secondary.

Lazard has won his matchup with a defender, which Stats Perform labels as a 'burn', on 21 of his 32 targets. His burn rate of 65.6 per cent is above the league average of 60.6 for receivers with a minimum of 20 targets.

He has produced a big play on 12 of those targets, good for a big play rate of 37.2 that is 10th among wideouts (min. 20 targets).

Washington's starting corners, Benjamin St. Juste and Kendall Fuller, have allowed 12.27 and 13.15 burn yards per target respectively -- the average for corners with at least 20 targets is 10.05.

Both have given up a big play on over 30 per cent of their targets -- St. Juste (31.3%), Fuller (36%) -- at a position where the average is 25.5. In other words, Rodgers and Lazard should theoretically be able to thrive against both starting corners. If they do, the Packers' passing game might finally get on track and boost Green Bay's hopes of a deep playoff push many anticipated before their underwhelming start.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

SmartRating: 60

Win Probability: Colts 54.4%

Key Matchup: Jeffery Simmons vs. Quenton Nelson


The AFC South is turning into a dogfight, with the 3-2 Titans leading the 3-2-1 Colts by half a game going into this divisional clash.

For the Colts to make sure the tie with the Houston Texans that separates them and the Titans does not prove costly down the stretch, they need to knock off Tennessee.

Doing that will involve stopping Jeffery Simmons, who has been a force on the interior of the Tennessee defense.

Simmons has beaten a pass protector on 18 of his 23 pressures this season. Only four interior defensive linemen have defeated a blocker on a pressure more often.

However, the Colts have a left guard in Quenton Nelson who has once again been one of the NFL's elite at his position in 2022.

Nelson has allowed a pressure on just 3.1 per cent of his pass protection snaps, giving him the sixth-best pressure rate among guards with at least 100 snaps this season.

The Colts will at least need to slow down Simmons for their passing game to prosper as it did against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the heavyweight battle between two former first-round picks in the heart of the trenches could well decide who takes command of the division.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

SmartRating: 71

Win Probability: Chiefs 50.7

Key Matchup: Fred Warner vs. Chiefs offense


A Super Bowl rematch between two teams coming off losses was made spicier with the news of San Francisco's blockbuster trade for running back Christian McCaffrey on Thursday.

But McCaffrey is unlikely to have much of an impact if he does play on Sunday given the limited time he has had to absorb the 49er playbook.

More key to the 49ers' hopes of at least partially avenging their Super Bowl collapse is the performance of a player who intercepted Mahomes in that game, Fred Warner.

The 2020 first-team All-Pro is the organisational heartbeat of the 49er defense, the man who plays a pivotal role in ensuring DeMeco Ryans' group is ultra-disciplined and consistently in the right position to make plays.

That discipline fell down in Week 6 defeat to the Atlanta Falcons, in which an extremely banged-up defense struggled to handle the Falcons' array of motions and zone-read runs involving quarterback Marcus Mariota.

San Francisco will get back a host of players from injury this weekend and the defense must do a better job of handling motion against an offense that heavily relies on it and will have to be alert to Mahomes' running threat, which for defenses is a frustrating complement to the wondrous things he can do throwing the ball.

Still, with no Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs' avenues to explosive plays are not as plentiful as they once were, and the 49ers will likely approach Kansas City in a similar way to the Buffalo Bills defense last week, leaning on two-high safety zone coverages in an attempt to force Mahomes to attack underneath.

Warner has allowed receivers to get open in zone coverage on just 10.87 per cent of his zone plays, his zone open rate the best in the NFL among linebackers. With his acumen in that area of the game and the athleticism he possesses to run downfield with Mahomes' primary target Travis Kelce, a bounce-back effort from Warner will be crucial to San Francisco's hopes of overturning odds that are slightly in Kansas City's favour.

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    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

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    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

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    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

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