Monday's game between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals has been temporarily suspended after a scary situation unfolded as safety Damar Hamlin collapsed and was taken off the field in an ambulance.
The incident occurred during the first quarter, after Hamlin made a tackle on Bengals receiver Tee Higgins. He briefly returned to his feet, before collapsing.
He remained down for over 10 minutes as ESPN's broadcast reported he was receiving emergency CPR before being loaded onto a stretcher and into a waiting ambulance.
The game was temporarily suspended with the Bengals leading 7-3, with both teams heading back to the locker room as they anxiously await an update on Hamlin's health.
The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.
Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.
That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.
In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent
Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.
Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.
Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.
The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.
While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent
Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander
Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.
Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.
Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.
No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.
The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.
While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.
Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent
Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush
The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.
Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.
Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.
Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.
It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.
Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).
Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.
A host of teams can start 2023 on a high note by clinching an NFL playoff place in an eagerly awaited Week 17.
There are also divisional titles to be won on New Year's Day, with Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers within touching distance of winning the NFC South ahead of a clash against the Carolina Panthers.
The Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets lock horns scenting a spot in the postseason, while the Miami Dolphins could seal a playoff berth when they do battle with the New England Patriots.
Here Stats Perform used its data to preview the biggest games with plenty at stake at the beginning of a new year.
SUNDAY (all times EST)
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8) 1pm
The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South title for a second straight season if they beat the Panthers, a feat they have never previously achieved.
After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season they made the playoffs.
Tampa Bay beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-16 in their final game of 2022. The Buccaneers have scored 21 or fewer points in all seven of their wins this season.
Carolina overcame the Detroit Lions 37-23 in Week 16 behind 320 yards rushing and 250 yards passing. They were the first NFL team with 300 rush yards and 250 pass yards in a game since the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, 2012.
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8) 4.05pm
The Seahawks have dominated the Jets in recent years, winning all four games against them since 2005 and conceding only 30 points in the process. That is just 7.5 points per game, which is the fewest allowed by any NFL team against a single opponent over that time.
Pete Carroll is in his 17th season as an NFL head coach and has never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The Seattle boss is the only head coach in NFL history to coach at least 15 seasons in the league and never have consecutive seasons in which he did not lead his team to the playoffs.
DK Metcalf has had at least five receptions in eight straight games, tied with John L. Williams (1989-90) and Brian Blades (1995) for the longest streak in Seahawks franchise history.
The Jets are allowing 10.8 fewer points per game than they did last season (29.6 to 18.8), on pace to be the second-largest season-to-season improvement in the NFL in the past 40 years behind the 2000-01 Rams (29.4 to 17.1, -12.3).
Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (7-8) - 1pm
New England are due a win over the Dolphins, who have beaten them in four consecutive games - the last of which was a 20-7 success in Week 1.
Miami are the only team to beat the Patriots four times in a row since Bill Belichick took over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. With a loss this week, Miami would join Tennessee as the only teams this season with a winning streak of at least five games and a losing streak of at least five games.
Tua Tagovailoa posted a career-high 12.4 yards per pass attempt in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. It was the highest yards-per-attempt in a loss by a starting Dolphins quarterback in team history. He misses out this week due to concussion, though, so Teddy Bridgewater steps in.
New England’s comeback bid fell short in a 22-18 loss to the Bengals last week. The Patriots have lost nine straight games when trailing after three quarters, with only the Panthers (41 straight losses) and Seahawks (13 straight) having longer active streaks.
MONDAY
Bills (12-3) @ Bengals (11-4) - 8.30pm
The Bills know they will get a first-round bye in the playoffs if they see off the Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Denver Broncos. Following Cincinnati's win over the Bills in the 1988 AFC Championship Game, the Bills won 10 straight in this series. Since then, Cincinnati are 4-2 against Buffalo, with the most recent meeting resulting in a 21-17 Buffalo win in Week 3, 2019.
The Bills beat the Bears 35-13 in Chicago last week, extending their winning run to six games. Buffalo have scored at least 20 points in each of those wins – they have just two longer streaks of wins with 20+ points – a nine-game streak in 1964 and a seven-game streak in 1990.
The Bengals' road win over the Patriots extended their winning streak to seven games, one shy of tying the franchise record of eight – achieved in the first eight games of the 2015 season (also an eight-game streak spanning the 1970 and 1971 seasons).
Joe Burrow had 375 passing yards last week, his second-highest total of the season. It was his seventh career game with at least 350 passing yards, fourth most in the NFL since 2020 behind Tom Brady (13), Patrick Mahomes (12) and Josh Allen (9).
Elsewhere...
The Denver Broncos start life after Nathaniel Hackett with a tough trip to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in their first game since the head coach's firing. The Chiefs have won 14 straight games against the Broncos dating back to the 2015 season. Just five teams in NFL history have beaten another team 15 times in a row, with the last team to do so being the Patriots against the Bills from 2003 to 2010.
The Philadelphia Eagles host the New Orleans Saints knowing they can clinch the NFC East and the number one seed in their conference with a win.
The Eagles are 11-3 (.786) all-time at home against the Saints, which includes an active three-game winning streak. That is the Eagles' third-best home record against any opponent all-time (3-0 versus the Texans and 6-1 versus the Broncos).
A playoff place is in the New York Giants' sights as they prepare to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have won four straight games against the Giants, with the most recent win coming in Week 16 of 2018 with a 28-27 home victory.
There appears to be no stopping the San Francisco 49ers, who can win a ninth game in a row when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to win eight straight games in a single season while holding their opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards in each victory.
Starting right tackle for the Cincinnati Bengals La'el Collins suffered a torn ACL and MCL during Saturday's win against the New England Patriots.
Collins, 29, was enjoying a strong first season with the Bengals after spending his first six years with the Dallas Cowboys.
He started all 15 games up to this point after being brought in to stabilise Joe Burrow's protection, and it has been the first of Burrow's three seasons where he has averaged fewer than three sacks per game.
The Bengals are currently one of the hottest teams in the NFL, riding a seven-game winning streak with nine victories from their past 10 outings, but the loss of Collins will undoubtedly be a massive blow.
According to Enquirer's Kelsey Conway, the team's initial on-field ACL exam appeared to indicate he had not suffered a tear, but an ensuing MRI produced much more dire results.
They finish their season with home games against the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens, but with a playoff berth already secured, the priority will now be to reach the postseason as healthy as possible.
The Buffalo Bills overturned a half-time deficit to defeat the Chicago Bills 35-13 on Saturday and clinch the AFC East title.
The freezing conditions in Chicago gave this the feel of a home game for the Bills, but they were far from comfortable early on and threatened to blow their lead in the race for home-field advantage in the AFC.
Josh Allen responded to Justin Fields' opening touchdown drive by leading Buffalo down the field and completing a 19-yard TD pass to Gabe Davis.
But the Bills missed the PAT, and the only score for the remainder of the half was a successful Bears field goal, giving Chicago a 10-6 lead through two quarters.
The hopes of the Bears – and the Bills' AFC rivals – were quickly dashed in the second half, however, as Devin Singletary dashed in from 33 yards and then James Cook followed him from 27 yards for a second score in double-quick time either side of a Chicago fumble.
An unconvincing Allen display, which included two interceptions and a recovered fumble, kept the Bears in contention, yet they could not capitalise.
And the Bills QB finished in more familiar fashion with a rushing score and a TD pass to Dawson Knox in the closing stages as Buffalo took another step towards the first seed.
Bills feel the heat in AFC
The pressure had been on the Bills because there never appeared any possibility of the Kansas City Chiefs not defeating the stumbling Seattle Seahawks. A 24-10 victory was Patrick Mahomes' first against the Seahawks, meaning the Indianapolis Colts are the only team he has now played but not beaten.
The Cincinnati Bengals also remain in contention at the top of the AFC after a dominant first half against the New England Patriots. Joe Burrow completed 28 passes – a season high for any QB in any half – for 284 yards and three touchdowns before half-time, meaning the Bengals could just about withstand a second-half pick six in a 22-18 win.
The Patriots' defeat meant the Baltimore Ravens clinched their playoff berth with a 17-9 defeat of the Atlanta Falcons.
Another manic Minnesota finish
Having claimed a record-breaking comeback win last week, the Minnesota Vikings had to hold off a rally from the New York Giants, who tied the game late on. However, a 40-yard field goal from Greg Joseph had defeated the Colts, and he topped that effort with a 61-yard conversion as time expired for a 27-24 Vikings victory.
The Detroit Lions, Minnesota's NFC North rivals, saw their three-game winning run ended by the Carolina Panthers. Both the Panthers and the New Orleans Saints improved to 6-9, firmly in contention in the miserable NFC South.
We are firmly in the business end of the 2022 NFL season.
Seven teams have already clinched their place in the postseason and a further seven will join them in the final three weeks of the campaign.
This is the time of year when room for error is diminished in games that have a huge bearing on how the final playoff field shakes out.
As such, festive feeling will be thin on the ground for those teams playing in such encounters during this weekend's Christmas schedule who come up short.
So often, though, these contests are decided by the game within the game, and here Stats Perform looks at three of the most important Week 16 clashes and the personnel matchups that could decide them.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Win Probability: Patriots 52.0 per cent
Key Matchup: Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Bengals offensive line
The Patriots' hopes of claiming a Wild Card berth took a massive blow in bizarre circumstances last week as Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable last-second lateral landed in the grateful arms of Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones, who stiff-armed Mac Jones into the turf and raced into the endzone to deny New England a chance of an overtime win.
At 7-7, they are still just a game behind the Miami Dolphins and must climb off the mat, though they are this week tasked with doing so against one of the hottest teams in football.
The 10-4 Bengals have a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North division title, yet there is a matchup the Patriots can look to exploit in this one.
While Cincinnati's offensive line has improved in terms of preventing pressure on Joe Burrow, it remains in the bottom half of the NFL in pass block win rate, in which the Bengals rank 24th.
In Judon and Uche, the Patriots possess a pair of pass rushers who can cause the Cincinnati O-Line huge problems. Judon is second in the NFL in sacks (14.5), behind only Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, while Uche has 10.5, all of which have come across his last seven games.
Both Judon (40.08 per cent) and Uche (42.38 per cent) possess pass rush win rates way above the average for edge players of 28.74 per cent, and if they are at their best, they could help eradicate the advantage the Bengals have at quarterback and tilt the game in New England's favour.
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Win Probability: Chiefs 80.4 per cent
Key Matchup: Seattle defensive backs vs. Chiefs receivers
Like the Patriots, the Seahawks' prospects of reaching the postseason are in significant jeopardy.
Their hopes of winning the NFC West are gone after the 49ers clinched the division title in Seattle by completing their first sweep of the Seahawks since 2011 in Week 15.
That leaves Seattle fighting for a Wild Card, and the odds are very much against them in this one against a Chiefs team who are in a battle for the AFC's one seed with the Buffalo Bills.
Part of the reason why the Seahawks are still in the mix is the play of their young but talented secondary, which ranks 13th in the NFL in pass coverage win rate according to Stats Perform's matchup data.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has enjoyed an outstanding first season for Seattle, with his combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 22.75 the seventh-best among corners with at least 100 total matchups.
The Chiefs' pass-catchers are 13th in terms of winning their coverage matchups in 2022, a year in which the loss of Tyreek Hill has undoubtedly had an impact.
Yet with 82.1 per cent of Patrick Mahomes' throws this season going to an open target, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid continues to excel at scheming receivers into space.
For the Seahawks to have any hope of pulling off a sizeable upset, their secondary must limit the chances for the Chiefs' receivers to enjoy such freedom.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Win Probability: Cowboys 59 per cent
Key Matchup: Eagles offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush
This NFC East matchup may have lost some of its lustre with the Eagles needing a meltdown to surrender the division title to the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts out because of a shoulder injury.
But that should not take away from the true heavyweight fight this game provides in the trenches.
Micah Parsons may be losing ground in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but he remains the headline act for a defense that is first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.
That would normally give the Cowboys a clear edge in a matchup with every offensive line, but not with this one.
Philadelphia's O-line leads the league in pass block win rate, with the Eagles allowing a pressure rate of 32.9 per cent that is the fourth-best in the NFL.
The Eagles maintaining their strength up front against Parsons and Co. will obviously be critical to Philadelphia as they seek to overcome the absence of Hurts.
There is no substitute for the value Hurts brings in the run game, but the Cowboys' defense has shown enough vulnerability to suggest backup quarterback Gardner Minshew can have success against Dallas, provided the offensive line wins the battle up front and allows the Eagles to stay on schedule.
Tom Brady's assessment that the Bengals' defense is "fairly tough" was proven to be a significant understatement, and Cincinnati revelled in illustrating his misjudgement after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback turned the ball over three times in their Week 15 clash.
A 34-23 victory gave the visitors the last laugh in Tampa, a result that marked the first time in 90 games a Brady side lost a home game after leading by 17, and extended the Bengals winning streak to six games.
Prior to the game, Brady said on the SiriusXM 'Let's Go!' podcast that the Bengals possessed a "fairly tough" defense.
Though the comments were blown out of proportion in the days leading up to the game, they were not forgotten by the Bengals.
Bengals linebacker Germaine Pratt poked fun at Brady, saying: "Hearing that from an old, savvy vet from him, we're a 'fairly tough defense,' with four turnovers, what would you say - tough as nails?"
Defensive tackle BJ Hill admitted the team's early performance fitted Brady's description, though he was delighted to quiet a chatty Bucs offense in the second half.
"That's how we played in the first half, I'm not going to lie to you. But we just came out in the second half and played our tails off," he told reporters.
"They really didn't say too much when we got up on them. I told them, 'Just wait until the second half.' I knew what we were going to do in the second half. And we did that."
For safety Jessie Bates III, the Bengals' defensive efforts had little to do so with Brady's comments.
"We don't really care about what people say. It is how it is, week in and week out. Somebody's going to say something. At the end of the day, they got to see us," he said.
The 10-4 Bengals hold a narrow lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the battle for the AFC North crown. Cincinnati face Baltimore in their final regular-season game on January 8.
The Cincinnati Bengals ran roughshod over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second half of Sunday's 34-17 victory – the Bengals' sixth win in a row, and eighth from their past nine games.
Despite the final score, it was all Bucs early as Tom Brady appeared to be getting his side back to their winning ways.
He had Tampa Bay leading 17-0 late in the second quarter after touchdown passes to Chris Godwin and Russell Gage, heading into half-time with 17 completions from 23 attempts for 194 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, they would not score again until the final minute, while the Bengals rattled off 34 unanswered points as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense took flight.
Burrow tossed four touchdown passes in the second half, with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Mitchell Wilcox snagging one each on the receiving end.
They were buoyed by four consecutive Buccaneers drives ending in turnovers, allowing Burrow, who only had 200 passing yards, to continually work with a short field.
To call it a rare collapse from a Brady-led side would be an understatement. Entering the game, Brady was 89-0 when gaining a 17-point lead at home, but they could not get out of their own way.
The win improves the Bengals' record to a commanding 10-4, with the reigning AFC Champions leading the AFC North and poised for another playoff run.
Raiders steal unbelievable win on final play
The Las Vegas Raiders were the beneficiaries of one of the most incredible gaffes of the NFL season as they emerged 30-24 winners after a last-second New England Patriots lateral went horribly wrong.
New England took a 24-17 lead with under four minutes remaining after Rhamondre Stevenson's 34-yard rushing touchdown, but the game looked destined for overtime when Raiders receiver Keelan Cole dragged his toes in the back corner of the endzone with 32 seconds on the clock.
What happened next had to be seen to be believed, as the Patriots called one final run play to take the last seconds off the clock, but after breaking through the first line of defenders, Stevenson pitched a lateral to Jakobi Meyers to keep the play alive.
Meyers then inexplicably attempted to heave it back to Mac Jones, his throw landing in the waiting arms of defender Chandler Jones, who was able to fend off the tackle from the Patriots quarterback and run in the game-winning defensive touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow spoke about the significance of facing seven-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady for the first time ahead of Sunday's clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Burrow was full of praise for 45-year-old Bucs quarterback Brady, with plenty seeing parallels and comparisons between the two in terms of style.
The 26-year-old QB, who is seeking the Bengals' sixth straight win on Sunday, declined to discuss the comparisons, instead lauding his elder statesman Brady.
"I don't really pay attention to it," Burrow told reporters about the comparisons. "He's Tom, and I'm Joe."
He added: "It's really incredible. He's 45 now. He's getting hit by the same people I'm getting hit by. It's a testament to the hard work and dedication and the team he has around him in the offseason to get his body right."
Brady (3585) ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards during this season at the age of 45-years-old, with Burrow (3685) sitting third overall.
The pair are tied for most passing touchdowns in fourth quarters this season, while they are both ranked in the top 10 for fourth-quarter QBR, showing they handle pressure well.
"He gets the ball out really fast," Burrow said. "He understands what he's looking at. I think he epitomizes toughness at the quarterback position.
"He's a great leader. He's the greatest of all time for a reason. He's the total package."
Going into the game, the Bengals are 9-4 and second in the AFC North following their five-game winning streak while the Bucs are below .500 at 6-7, yet lead the NFC South.
"Obviously, the greatest quarterback ever is on the other side," Burrow said. "But we got a job to do, too, and our job is to go and win, get to 10-4 and move on."
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow downplayed the significance of facing seven-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady for the first time ahead of Sunday's clash with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Burrow was full of praise for 45-year-old Bucs quarterback Brady, with plenty seeing parallels and comparisons between the two in terms of style.
The 26-year-old QB, who is seeking the Bengals' sixth straight win on Sunday, declined to discuss the comparisons, instead lauding his elder statesman Brady.
"I don't really pay attention to it," Burrow told reporters about the comparisons. "He's Tom, and I'm Joe."
He added: "It's really incredible. He's 45 now. He's getting hit by the same people I'm getting hit by. It's a testament to the hard work and dedication and the team he has around him in the offseason to get his body right."
Brady (3585) ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards during this season at the age of 45-years-old, with Burrow (3685) sitting third overall.
The pair are tied for most passing touchdowns in fourth quarters this season, while they are both ranked in the top 10 for fourth-quarter QBR, showing they handle pressure well.
"He gets the ball out really fast," Burrow said. "He understands what he's looking at. I think he epitomizes toughness at the quarterback position.
"He's a great leader. He's the greatest of all time for a reason. He's the total package."
Going into the game, the Bengals are 9-4 and second in the AFC North following their five-game winning streak while the Bucs are below .500 at 6-7, yet lead the NFC South.
"Obviously, the greatest quarterback ever is on the other side," Burrow said. "But we got a job to do, too, and our job is to go and win, get to 10-4 and move on."
There are four weeks remaining of the 2022 NFL season, meaning we are in the home stretch not only in the race for the playoffs, but also in the battle for the MVP.
Week 14 was one in which the race appeared to settle into one between four quarterbacks. Other positions are worthy of recognition, but since Adrian Peterson's win in 2012 the MVP has been solely a quarterback award, and there is a quartet who have separated themselves from the rest.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had received some hype as a potential MVP, but his successive disappointing displays against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have likely removed him from the equation.
This has become a fight between the quarterback piloting the best team in the NFC and a trio of signal-callers each hoping to lead their respective rosters to the top seed in the AFC.
Right now, it is the former who stands as the favourite because of a near-perfect resume.
THE FRONTRUNNER: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The competition with more established NFL stars has been fierce but, after recent devastating performances against the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, it is difficult to dispute Hurts as the MVP frontrunner.
A week on from brushing past the Titans, the Eagles swatted the Giants aside at The Meadowlands with another display of effortless dominance powered by Hurts’ ability to hit the deep ball and his influence on an ultra-diverse run game.
Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown for touchdowns of 41 and 33 yards, and also rushed for 77 yards and a score on seven carries. His 13 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards are the most in the NFL while his 10 rushing scores are the sixth-most, and two more than any other quarterback (Justin Fields, eight).
He now has 3,157 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, becoming the the fourth quarterback ever with at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes & 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Kyler Murray (2020), Cam Newton (2011 and 2015) and Kordell Stewart (1997).
Newton won the MVP in 2015 by posting such numbers for a 15-1 Carolina Panthers team that went on to reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles are on course to go 16-1 thanks to Hurts’ growth as a thrower – his well-thrown rate of 82.7 percent is a substantial improvement on his mark of 77.1 per cent from 2021. If they do so, there are unlikely to be many convincing counterarguments against Hurts as the MVP.
DON'T COUNT HIM OUT: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
A three-interception performance by Mahomes against the Denver Broncos may have helped tilt the MVP race in favour of Hurts, but the 2018 MVP is still performing at a level to be worthy of regaining the award.
Mahomes has 60 completions of at least 20 yards this season. No other quarterback has even reached 50, with Joe Burrow his nearest challenger on 46.
He ranks eighth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 83.5 percent, and has been extremely accurate when going deep.
Indeed, Mahomes' completion percentage of 50 on pass attempts of at least 21 air yards is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws. On top of his downfield explosiveness, Mahomes has done an excellent job of creating yardage for himself on the ground, his yards per carry average on scrambles of 7.44 bettered by only Justin Fields (7.98) and P.J. Walker (8.67).
Recent issues with turnovers and the fact the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals may have dented his case but, with four games to go, Mahomes has built the foundations of an MVP resume and still has the chance to earn the prize for a second time if he can lift Kansas City to the one seed.
FADING FAST?: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The resume in terms of achievements for Allen is pretty sparkling. If the season ended today, the Bills would be the number one seed in the AFC and he delivered the tiebreaking win over the Chiefs with a tremendous fourth-quarter performance at Arrowhead.
Allen's deep ball has been extremely impressive this season. No quarterback in the NFL has accounted for more yards on throws of at least 21 air yards than his 833.
The Bills star is also on the right side of the ledger in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82 percent of his passes. The league average – minimum 50 attempts – is 81.4.
However, like Mahomes, Allen has 11 interceptions this season, and has a pickable pass rate of 4.89 percent that is nearly a full point above the average of 4.09%.
His carelessness with the ball has contributed to key defeats to the likes of the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, costing the Bills wins that would have given them clear separation atop the AFC.
Allen is clearly one of the league's premier quarterbacks and will be for many years to come, but the consistency has not been there for him to be considered the MVP at this point.
THE SLEEPER: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
After a slow start, the man who spearheaded the Bengals' improbable charge to an AFC Championship is once again performing at a level that saw him elevate Cincinnati to the ranks of the elite.
Even in hard-fought Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns with a Bengals' offense that has been one of the most productive in the NFL since Week 6 did not fire on all cylinders, Burrow's deadly precision was a difference-maker, most notably on a pinpoint 15-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Marr Chase on a post route to open the scoring.
Burrow delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 percent of his passes against the Browns. For the season, his well-thrown rate of 85.9 percent is fifth among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. His pickable pass rate of just 1.52 percent is the NFL's best.
Burrow is outperforming Hurts, Mahomes and Allen when it comes to delivering accurately and taking care of the ball, and has a signature win over Mahomes to his name from Week 13.
If the Bengals go on to wrest the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow will have an excellent case for the MVP, one that will be even stronger if 9-4 Cincinnati manage to catch Kansas City and Buffalo in the race for the one seed.
The San Francisco 49ers looked destined to contend for a Super Bowl because of their astute move to invest in a quarterback insurance policy for Trey Lance.
Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.
The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.
An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?
Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.
To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.
Still Purdy Good
Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.
The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.
However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.
The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).
As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.
Chiefs Still Reign
The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.
ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.
The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.
On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent.
If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.
A dangerous Wild Card
ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.
Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.
The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.
Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.
By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.
Prior to Joe Burrow's arrival in 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals were an NFL punchline. In the third season of what looks set to be a storied NFL career, he has helped them turn one of the most fearsome teams in the league into their own personal punching bag.
Ok, that may be going a little far. However, after their thrilling 27-24 win in Week 13, it is clear the Bengals are the dominant team in a rivalry with the Kansas City Chiefs, who they have now defeated in three successive games including their remarkable AFC Championship Game triumph last season.
That dream run to the Super Bowl was one that looked difficult to replicate, especially after the Bengals made an 0-2 start to the season with defeats to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys.
But the concern from that early disappointment has long since dissipated, with Burrow once authoring an increasingly impressive follow-up to his outstanding 2021 campaign.
Continually perfect placement
He reached a highpoint for the 2022 season on Sunday by once again outduelling Patrick Mahomes in an undulating thrill ride in Cincinnati, exhibiting the accuracy that defined the Bengals' unexpected 2021 ascension.
The former number one overall pick delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.1 per cent of his pass attempts, according to Stats Perform data, his superb ball placement helping him complete 25 of his 31 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Burrow also opened the scoring with a rushing touchdown.
While the final stat line in terms of yardage may not be eye-popping, Burrow averaged 9.23 yards per attempt, his precision as a passer ensuring the Bengals maintained offensive efficiency that is critical against the Chiefs.
Burrow ended the game with a completion percentage of 80.6, over five per cent higher than his expected completion percentage of 75.4.
And yet, even in a game where Burrow was deadly accurate, the Bengals averaged 8.7 yards per pass play and Ja'Marr Chase had 97 yards on seven catches on his return from injury, it could be argued the Bengals did not fire on all cylinders.
Though they moved the ball well, the Bengals went three of seven in the red zone, with Tyler Boyd committing a crucial drop on a would-be touchdown on third down in the third quarter, and Burrow regularly had to make plays with his legs when pass protection that has improved this season broke down.
Normally such missed opportunities as the Bengals had inside the 20-yard line would be fatal against the Chiefs and the most feared quarterback of his generation, but since Burrow returned from the knee injury that prematurely ended his rookie year to reassume command of the offense in 2021, he and Cincinnati have become experts in finding a way to prevail against any calibre of this opposition.
On this occasion versus the Chiefs, it was success in finding balance that saw them navigate a path to a win over the team that entered Week 13 as the AFC's number one seed.
Yin and Yang
Cincinnati's passing game was complemented by a ground attack that took advantage of Kansas City's vulnerability defending the run.
Backup running back Samaje Perine averaged five yards per carry, with the efforts of the offensive line aiding him in putting up 3.29 yards before contact per rush, the sixth-most among backs with at least 10 carries in Week 13.
More critical, though, was the fourth-quarter defiance of the defense, which, despite struggling to get Mahomes off the field, came up with two crucial stops when the Bengals needed them most.
Germaine Pratt forced and recovered a fumble from Travis Kelce on a 19-yard reception to set up a go-ahead touchdown for the Bengals, on which Burrow found a wide-open Chris Evans after Boyd redeemed himself with a key third-down catch, and Joseph Ossai – who missed all of his rookie year due to injury – showcased his pass-rushing prowess and his motor to bring down Mahomes for a sack on third and short, ending the Chiefs' subsequent drive and forcing a long game-tying field goal attempt that Harrison Butker pushed wide right.
That gave Burrow the chance to kill the game in the final minutes and, after a second-down sack that appeared as if it might give the Chiefs one more chance, he extinguished any lingering Kansas City hope with one final display of his elite marksmanship.
Under pressure from Derrick Nnadi, Burrow calmly delivered a perfect ball to Tee Higgins over the middle as the Bengals ran a slant-flat concept, his throw delivered with the timing and anticipation to dart into the grasp of Higgins and defeat the excellent coverage of rookie Joshua Williams, ensuring Cincinnati picked up a first down on third-and-11 and ended the ball game.
Since Week 6, when the Bengals set off a run that has seen them win six of their past seven games, Burrow leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.3) and passing touchdowns (16), while he is third in yards per attempt (8.55), showcasing the kind of form that lifted the Bengals to the Super Bowl last season.
While he was both devastatingly accurate and efficient in Sunday's engrossing victory, it was a Bengals performance that, a week on from a hard-fought 20-16 win over the Tennessee Titans, further demonstrated they do not necessarily need Burrow to carry the entire burden of their hopes on his shoulders.
Against Kansas City, the Bengals used a balanced offensive approach to win the time of possession battle – Cincinnati limiting the Chiefs' opportunities by holding the ball for over four minutes more than their high-powered opponents – and delivered defensive stops in the crucial moments.
But such key plays may not have borne fruit had Burrow not answered the bell with an unstoppable throw to Higgins when it was all on his shoulders.
There is the talent on the Bengals' roster that Burrow doesn't have to do everything, but approaching the end of his third season as pro, the overwhelming evidence is that he can.
This latest win over the Chiefs does indeed represent the zenith of 2022 for Burrow and the Bengals to this point. The exciting thing for Cincinnati, though, is that, for as much as he impressed, it was not Burrow's best performance of the season.
The ceiling for the Cincinnati offense is higher than what the Bengals produced in Week 13, and the fact they weren't required to reach it to knock off Kansas City once more should offer substantial encouragement to the reigning AFC champions, and terrify the rest of the conference looking to usurp them.
Joe Burrow got the better of Patrick Mahomes once again and is playing at an "MVP level" according to his Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor.
The Bengals earned a 27-24 triumph over the Kansas City Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium and moved to 8-4 for the season.
Burrow was once again influential as he moved to a perfect 3-0 in games played against quarterback rival Mahomes, whose Chiefs sit at 9-3.
The 25-year-old completed 25 of his 31 passes, including touchdown passes to Tee Higgins in the second quarter and Chris Evans in the last, with Evans' score putting the Bengals up for good.
"He's playing at an MVP level – absolutely," Taylor said. "He gives us a lot of confidence."
Burrow's outing also included running in a four-yard score and converting on a couple of third-down passes to Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins that allowed the Bengals to run down the clock.
After the game, Burrow said: "We left some points on the field, but we still find a way to win.
"We've still got five weeks left. Let's keep this train rolling. This team knows what it takes to win these games. We've been there. It's December. It's time to separate ourselves."
Wide receiver Chase missed the previous four games with a hip injury and last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year caught seven passes for 97 yards on a brilliant return.
"I was surprised at how quickly he was looking like the same Ja'Marr, even in practice last week. He's a freak," Taylor added.
Mahomes finished the game with 16 of 27 passes completed for 223 yards and a touchdown, while running in for another score.
But the Chiefs quarterback rued some costly mistakes.
"We started off slow, we got back in the game, into the flow of things and [then] we had a turnover late and a missed kick," he said.
"In the fourth quarter, those are the things that kind of bite you at the end."
The Cincinnati Bengals had strong contributions from all facets of their offense to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 on Sunday.
In a rematch from last season's AFC Championship game – where the Bengals beat the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl – quarterback Joe Burrow was at his sharpest.
The 25-year-old former top overall draft pick completed 25 of his 31 passes, including touchdown passes to Tee Higgins in the second quarter and Chris Evans in the last, with Evans' score putting the Bengals up for good.
In his return from a five-game injury absence, last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja'Marr Chase picked up right where he left off as Burrow's top option, catching seven passes for 97 yards, but backup running back Samaje Perine was even more influential.
Perine was used heavily in the fourth quarter as the Bengals looked to claw their way back from a deficit, with three of his six catches coming on their go-ahead touchdown drive, finishing with 49 yards through the air and another 106 on the ground from 21 carries.
It was not the best game from Chiefs quarterback and MVP favourite Patrick Mahomes, with 223 yards and one touchdown, as the Bengals committed to dropping eight defenders into coverage all game, forcing the Chiefs to accept small gains instead of their usual chunk-plays.
With the win, the Bengals are now 8-4, joining the Baltimore Ravens in a tie for the AFC North lead, while the Chiefs are three games clear atop the AFC West at 9-3.
Purdy party keeps the 49ers rolling
Brock Purdy was able to deliver a big 33-17 win for the San Francisco 49ers against the Miami Dolphins, but it came at a cost.
Purdy, the very last pick in this year's NFL Draft, was called upon when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off and ruled out during their first drive of the game. Garoppolo has been diagnosed with a broken foot, with the team saying afterwards that it will end his season.
Almost a lock for the playoffs now at 8-4 with arguably the best defense in the league, the 49ers will need Purdy to get up to speed in a hurry if they still have dreams of a Super Bowl run, and he was solid against the Dolphins, completing 25 of his 37 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
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