The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.
Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.
That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.
In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent
Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.
Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.
Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.
The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.
While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent
Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander
Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.
Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.
Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.
No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.
The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.
While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.
Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent
Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush
The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.
Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.
Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.
Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.
It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.
Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).
Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.
The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town
Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.
It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.
A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.
With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds.
Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.
Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.
What's expected?
City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.
Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.
City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).
This match should promise goals, though.
Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.
Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.
Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.
City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.
Classic City, or is there something wrong?
There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.
Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.
City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.
They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.
The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.
Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.
With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.
Road rage
Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).
Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.
As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).
Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).
Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).
Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City - Erling Haaland
Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country.
He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.
Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski
No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.
His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.
NFL: Texans bounce back, extend Cowboys' woes
Joe Mixon's 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns helped get the Houston Texans back on track with Monday's 34-10 win over the floundering Dallas Cowboys.
Houston (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak behind Mixon's powerful running and a defence that sacked Cowboys' fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush five times and forced two turnovers, including a fumble Derek Barnett returned 28 yards for a touchdown that gave the Texans a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter.
Dallas (3-7) has now lost five straight, its longest skid since dropping seven in a row in 2015, and fell to 0-5 at home. The Cowboys have been outscored by 118 points (187-69) at AT&T Stadium, the third-largest negative differential through five home games in a season in NFL history.
Rush did throw a 64-yard touchdown pass to KaVontae Turpin in his second straight start subbing for an injured Dak Prescott, and finished with a career-high 354 passing yards with one interception while completing 32 of 55 attempts.
C.J. Stroud threw for 257 yards with an interception for Houston, which extended its lead over the second-place Indianapolis Colts to two games in the AFC South.
The Texans never trailed after Mixon ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run on the game's opening drive, and the veteran running back added a 1-yard scoring plunge late in the first quarter to give Houston a 14-0 lead.
Turpin got Dallas on the board by taking a short pass from Rush and breaking free from the Houston defence nine seconds into the second quarter, but the Cowboys were shut out in the second half after pulling to within 17-10 on Brandon Aubrey's 53-yard field goal with just under six minutes left before half-time.
Burnett's strip sack of Rush and return of the resulting fumble helped put the game away with 12:31 left, and Mixon tacked on his final touchdown of the night with 3:16 remaining to cap a 35-yard drive that began after the Texans stopped the Cowboys on downs.
Mahomes to use Chiefs' first loss of 2024 as 'spark'
Patrick Mahomes said the Kansas City Chiefs will use their first loss since Christmas Day 2023 as fuel after the Buffalo Bills halted their unbeaten start to the season.
Josh Allen scrambled for a stunning 26-yard touchdown with just over two minutes to play as the Bills improved to 9-2 with a 30-21 win over the reigning Super Bowl champions.
The result ended the Chiefs' 15-game winning streak, a run that began after they lost to the Los Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day last year and included their dramatic triumph over the San Francisco 49ers at Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs had started this season 9-0 to take control of the race for the AFC's top seed, but they could have few complaints about Sunday's result.
The Bills outgained the Chiefs by 366 yards to 259, also recording 24 first downs to Kansas City's 19 and enjoying almost nine more minutes in possession.
Mahomes, however, was relaxed about the end of his team's winning streak, saying: "The undefeated thing was cool, but that's not our ultimate goal.
"It's a good football team, so there's nothing to hang your head about. We feel like we can play better, so we will get back to work and try to use this as a spark so that we can be a better football team in the end."
The Chiefs rank just 16th in the NFL for yards per game (337.9) and 11th for points per game (24) in 2024, with many of their victories – including against the Denver Broncos in Week 10 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 – coming via last-gasp defensive or special teams plays.
Mahomes actually feels the team could benefit from a reality check, adding: "I'm hoping that [losing] is a benefit.
"I'm not going to say I or we are relaxed, but at the same time I feel like we were just coming away with these wins at the end of the games.
"I think it's going to spark us to have more urgency, especially at the start of football games, especially with the offense, and that comes from me and turning the ball over on the first drive. It's something you can't do in big games like this."
No quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Mahomes' 11 (level with Geno Smith and Jordan Love) this season, while a passer rating of 90.3 ranks him a lowly 20th among all players at the position.
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