The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.
Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.
That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.
In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent
Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.
Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.
Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.
The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.
While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent
Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander
Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.
Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.
Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.
No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.
The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.
While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.
Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent
Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush
The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.
Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.
Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.
Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.
It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.
Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).
Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.
NFL teams unwilling to hand Belichick total control, suggests Pennel
Bill Belichick's failure to land another coaching role in the NFL after leaving the New England Patriots was unsurprising due to the level of control he demands, says his former tackle Mike Pennel.
Belichick is regarded as one of the greatest head coaches in NFL history, leading the Patriots to nine Super Bowls and winning six during 23 seasons in charge between 2000 and 2023.
His six Super Bowl titles as a head coach match the best returns of any franchise in NFL history, with the Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers both possessing six.
He is also within reach of Don Shula's record for the most victories as an NFL head coach, with his total of 333 (including postseason games) putting him 14 behind the Miami Dolphins legend (347).
If only regular-season games are counted, Belichick has 302 victories to Shula's 328.
However, Belichick parted company with the Patriots after they went 4-13 during a dismal 2023 season, and he was unable to land a new role despite being linked with several teams, including the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys.
Pennel, who spent six months with Belichick's Patriots in 2019, believes the level of control he demands over a franchise's direction proved off-putting.
"Bill Belichick's one of the greatest coaches of all time, if not that. So it's going to look a lot different. He was coaching in the NFL before I was even alive," he told Stats Perform.
"I'm clearly just speculating because I'm not part of the New England Patriots franchise, but I just think the situation was, it was that time where they wanted to change.
"They wanted a fresh face and Bill wants things to run a certain way and I don't think franchises are willing to relinquish that much control to a new coach.
"I just think he wants to take his time. I know he's a family man and just wants to enjoy the time with his family. He's already done everything."
Jerod Mayo has taken the reins in Foxborough following Belichick's departure, with quarterback Drake Maye being drafted third overall to lead the team into a new era.
Pennel, however, believes teething problems will be part of the process this year, saying: "It's hard. It takes some time. You know, there's a couple years of transition depending on how much time you have with the players and everything like that.
"You're learning a whole new system. You're learning with all new players, you're learning with all new staff, so it's very hard.
"I don't think it's ever happened like that, in the first year to go to a Super Bowl. It's hard to get to that successful level."
Dolphins coach McDaniel gets three-year extension
The Miami Dolphins have extended the contract of head coach Mike McDaniel through the 2028 season, ESPN reported Friday.
It's a three-year extension for McDaniel, who has two seasons remaining on the four-year contract he signed after being named Miami's head coach in February 2022.
McDaniel has gone 20-14 in two seasons with the Dolphins while leading the team to the playoffs both years, the franchise's first back-to-back postseason appearances since 2000-01. That resurgence has been led by an offence that's been among the NFL's best under the 41-year-old, who came to Miami after serving as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan in 2021.
Miami was especially potent on that side the ball last season, as it led the NFL in total yards and finished second overall in scoring at 29.2 points per game while compiling an 11-6 record to tie for first place in the AFC East.
McDaniel's arrival has also coincided with Tua Tagovailoa's emergence into a top-tier quarterback after the 2020 No. 5 overall pick struggled his first two seasons under the previous coaching regime.
Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards in 2023 and set a Dolphins single-season record for completion percentage (69.3) while throwing for 29 touchdowns.
McDaniel now joins his quarterback as members of the organisation the Dolphins have locked up for the forseeable future. Tagavoiloa agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension through 2028 last month.
Taylor Swift fame will not hurt Kelce's desire for more Super Bowl glory – Pennel
Travis Kelce's love of football means his off-field fame will not impact his desire to help the Kansas City Chiefs to a Super Bowl three-peat, says team-mate Mike Pennel.
Kelce has become recognised as one of the NFL's best tight ends through 11 seasons with the Chiefs, being named in the first All-Pro team on four occasions and becoming a nine-time Pro Bowler.
His partnership with quarterback Patrick Mahomes has helped the Chiefs win three Super Bowls, including back-to-back crowns to cap the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
However, it is Kelce's relationship with pop superstar Taylor Swift that has taken his off-field image to a new level, making him one of the world's most recognisable sportspeople.
Alongside his brother, former Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce, he also hosts the popular 'New Heights' podcast and has made several television appearances.
Chiefs tackle Pennel says there is no jealousy towards Kelce in the Chiefs' locker room, however.
He told Stats Perform: "We all love it, man. It's a brotherhood, so we're always excited when we see anyone on TV or succeeding off the field.
"Trav definitely was that guy that had that trajectory, you know what I mean? So, to say that we're surprised by it... we're not really. I know that everybody's really happy for him and all the opportunities that he's getting."
The Chiefs are looking to make history in the 2024 season, with a chance to become the first team in the NFL to win three straight Super Bowls.
Of the eight previous teams to win back-to-back championships, none have even reached the Super Bowl in the following season. Pennel, however, believes Kelce's drive could help the Chiefs go where no team has gone before.
"I think it's testament to [general manager Brett] Veach. He puts people in the locker room that love the game of football," he said.
"The money's great and everything like that, but I know genuinely that everyone in our locker room loves football.
"I think that's what it's testament to, he's got all the accolades, he's done everything with all the money and everything, but he generally loves the game of football and loves being competitive and wants to help the Chiefs organisation excel.
"To take that next advantage with getting a three-peat and more Super Bowls, as many as they can during this window."
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