The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.
Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.
That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.
In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent
Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense
The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.
Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.
Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.
The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.
While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.
If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent
Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander
Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.
Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.
Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.
No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.
The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.
While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.
Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent
Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush
The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.
Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.
Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.
Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.
It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.
Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).
Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.
Cousins throws for 509 yards, 4 touchdowns in Falcons' OT win over Buccaneers
Kirk Cousins passed for a career-high 509 yards and four touchdowns, the last of them a 45-yard scoring pass to KhaDarel Hodge in overtime that gave the Atlanta Falcons an improbable 36-30 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.
After a wild fourth quarter that featured a blocked field goal, a fumble and an interception, Cousins and the Falcons (3-2) got the ball back at their own 20 with 1:14 remaining in regulation and no timeouts, trailing 30-27.
Cousins completed five passes to push Atlanta to the Buccaneers 29, then hustled to the line to spike the ball with a single second on the clock. In all the confusion, the Falcons were called for delay of game as they lined up for a tying field goal, but it didn't cost them.
Younghoe Koo knocked it through from 52 yards to force overtime, one week after he made a 58-yarder with 2 seconds left to beat the New Orleans Saints.
The Falcons won the coin toss in overtime and made sure Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (3-2) didn't get their hands on the ball again. Cousins connected with Drake London on a couple of passes before throwing one over the middle to Hodge, who split the secondary and raced untouched to the end zone to end the game.
Chiefs place top wide receiver Rice on injured reserve
Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid told the media Thursday the team was waiting for swelling to go down on Rashee Rice's knee before performing additional tests.
Three hours later, the Chiefs had enough information to know he'll be side-lined for at least one month.
The Chiefs placed Rice on injured reserve later Thursday, meaning he will out for a minimum of four weeks.
Rice was injured in last Sunday's 17-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and it was reported he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.
There has been no update on the extent of the injury, but a torn ACL would side-line him for the rest of the season.
The second-year receiver was injured on a bizarre play when he collided with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who inadvertently dove into Rice's knee as the two team-mates were attempting to tackle Chargers cornerback Kristian Fulton on an interception return.
Rice was carted off to the locker room shortly after leaving the field and eventually ruled out of the game.
His injury is the latest blow to a Kansas City team that is already without leading rusher Isiah Pacheco, who is recovering from a fractured fibula he sustained in Week 2.
It also leaves Mahomes without his top target, as Rice led the NFL with 24 receptions through this season's first three weeks.
No other Kansas City player had double-digit receptions entering Week 4, though Travis Kelce finally took on a larger role in the offence.
The veteran tight end had seven receptions for 89 yards against the Chargers after catching eight passes for 69 yards in the first three games.
Despite losing two of their top play-makers, the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 4-0 heading into their Week 5 Monday night game against the New Orleans Saints.
'It was a good day' - Goff proud of setting new NFL record
Jared Goff was proud of making history, as he set an NFL single-game record by completing all 18 of his pass attempts to help the Detroit Lions to victory.
The Lions beat the previously unbeaten Seattle Seahawks 42-29 on Monday, with Goff eclipsing Hall of Famer Kurt Warner's 10-for-10 performance in 2005, the previous standard for most passes in a game without an incompletion.
The quarterback threw for 292 yards, including touchdown passes to Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown on his perfect evening, while also hauling in the latter's 7-yard toss for a touchdown in the third quarter.
That made him the first quarterback with a receiving touchdown since Zach Wilson in 2022, while he also became the first QB in NFL history with 15 or more pass attempts with no incompletions in a game.
Goff was aware that he was closing in on a perfect game, even if he had doubts at one point.
"I knew I did it in the first half last week, so I was aware of it then, and I was kind of aware of it today in the middle of the third quarter," he said.
"I couldn't think of one [incompletion], but then I threw the one out of bounds that ended up being offensive pass interference, and I was like, 'Does that count?' I didn't know if that counted or not.
"But yeah, it was a good day."
On his touchdown reception, he added: "No, I think that's my first one, too. Ever.
"And I'm saying all the way back to 7 years old, I think that's my first one."
Lions coach Dan Campbell did not realise how impressive Goff's performance had been after the game, choosing to give the game ball to Williams and safety Kerby Joseph for their strong play.
"I just gave the game ball to somebody else," Campbell laughed. "So, I feel awful right now.
"I knew he played a heck of a game. I did not realize he was perfect. I did not know he was literally 18 for 18.
"I thought what really kick-started him was that he had to move a little in the pocket, got spun around and hung with Jamo [Williams] and hit him on the hook for the first down, that was big because he was rolling after that."
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