A host of teams can start 2023 on a high note by clinching an NFL playoff place in an eagerly awaited Week 17.
There are also divisional titles to be won on New Year's Day, with Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers within touching distance of winning the NFC South ahead of a clash against the Carolina Panthers.
The Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets lock horns scenting a spot in the postseason, while the Miami Dolphins could seal a playoff berth when they do battle with the New England Patriots.
Here Stats Perform used its data to preview the biggest games with plenty at stake at the beginning of a new year.
SUNDAY (all times EST)
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8) 1pm
The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC South title for a second straight season if they beat the Panthers, a feat they have never previously achieved.
After a 21-3 win in Week 7, the Panthers are going for the season sweep of the Buccaneers for the first time since 2017. That was also the last season they made the playoffs.
Tampa Bay beat the Arizona Cardinals 19-16 in their final game of 2022. The Buccaneers have scored 21 or fewer points in all seven of their wins this season.
Carolina overcame the Detroit Lions 37-23 in Week 16 behind 320 yards rushing and 250 yards passing. They were the first NFL team with 300 rush yards and 250 pass yards in a game since the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, 2012.
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8) 4.05pm
The Seahawks have dominated the Jets in recent years, winning all four games against them since 2005 and conceding only 30 points in the process. That is just 7.5 points per game, which is the fewest allowed by any NFL team against a single opponent over that time.
Pete Carroll is in his 17th season as an NFL head coach and has never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The Seattle boss is the only head coach in NFL history to coach at least 15 seasons in the league and never have consecutive seasons in which he did not lead his team to the playoffs.
DK Metcalf has had at least five receptions in eight straight games, tied with John L. Williams (1989-90) and Brian Blades (1995) for the longest streak in Seahawks franchise history.
The Jets are allowing 10.8 fewer points per game than they did last season (29.6 to 18.8), on pace to be the second-largest season-to-season improvement in the NFL in the past 40 years behind the 2000-01 Rams (29.4 to 17.1, -12.3).
Dolphins (8-7) @ Patriots (7-8) - 1pm
New England are due a win over the Dolphins, who have beaten them in four consecutive games - the last of which was a 20-7 success in Week 1.
Miami are the only team to beat the Patriots four times in a row since Bill Belichick took over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. With a loss this week, Miami would join Tennessee as the only teams this season with a winning streak of at least five games and a losing streak of at least five games.
Tua Tagovailoa posted a career-high 12.4 yards per pass attempt in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. It was the highest yards-per-attempt in a loss by a starting Dolphins quarterback in team history. He misses out this week due to concussion, though, so Teddy Bridgewater steps in.
New England’s comeback bid fell short in a 22-18 loss to the Bengals last week. The Patriots have lost nine straight games when trailing after three quarters, with only the Panthers (41 straight losses) and Seahawks (13 straight) having longer active streaks.
MONDAY
Bills (12-3) @ Bengals (11-4) - 8.30pm
The Bills know they will get a first-round bye in the playoffs if they see off the Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Denver Broncos. Following Cincinnati's win over the Bills in the 1988 AFC Championship Game, the Bills won 10 straight in this series. Since then, Cincinnati are 4-2 against Buffalo, with the most recent meeting resulting in a 21-17 Buffalo win in Week 3, 2019.
The Bills beat the Bears 35-13 in Chicago last week, extending their winning run to six games. Buffalo have scored at least 20 points in each of those wins – they have just two longer streaks of wins with 20+ points – a nine-game streak in 1964 and a seven-game streak in 1990.
The Bengals' road win over the Patriots extended their winning streak to seven games, one shy of tying the franchise record of eight – achieved in the first eight games of the 2015 season (also an eight-game streak spanning the 1970 and 1971 seasons).
Joe Burrow had 375 passing yards last week, his second-highest total of the season. It was his seventh career game with at least 350 passing yards, fourth most in the NFL since 2020 behind Tom Brady (13), Patrick Mahomes (12) and Josh Allen (9).
Elsewhere...
The Denver Broncos start life after Nathaniel Hackett with a tough trip to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in their first game since the head coach's firing. The Chiefs have won 14 straight games against the Broncos dating back to the 2015 season. Just five teams in NFL history have beaten another team 15 times in a row, with the last team to do so being the Patriots against the Bills from 2003 to 2010.
The Philadelphia Eagles host the New Orleans Saints knowing they can clinch the NFC East and the number one seed in their conference with a win.
The Eagles are 11-3 (.786) all-time at home against the Saints, which includes an active three-game winning streak. That is the Eagles' third-best home record against any opponent all-time (3-0 versus the Texans and 6-1 versus the Broncos).
A playoff place is in the New York Giants' sights as they prepare to take on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have won four straight games against the Giants, with the most recent win coming in Week 16 of 2018 with a 28-27 home victory.
There appears to be no stopping the San Francisco 49ers, who can win a ninth game in a row when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to win eight straight games in a single season while holding their opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards in each victory.
Ravens stop Bengals on late 2-point try, hold on for 35-34 victory
Lamar Jackson threw for three fourth-quarter touchdowns, and the Baltimore Ravens denied Cincinnati on a 2-point conversion with 38 seconds remaining to hold off the Bengals 35-34 on Thursday night.
The Ravens (7-3) rallied from a 21-7 third-quarter deficit, overcoming a huge game from Cincinnati receiver Ja'Marr Chase. He finished with 11 catches for 264 yards and three touchdowns, including a 5-yarder in the final minute to bring the Bengals (4-6) within one. Cincinnati - which lost to Baltimore in overtime last month - decided to go for 2 and the lead, and Joe Burrow's pass for Tanner Hudson sailed high.
Cincinnati had a chance to take control when it was up 14 with the ball in the third, but a fumble by Chase Brown gave the Ravens a short field, and a nifty scramble along the sideline by Jackson set up Derrick Henry’s 1-yard touchdown run.
In the fourth, Tylan Wallace turned a short pass into an 84-yard TD, barely staying inbounds as a couple of Cincinnati defenders failed to stop him. Justin Tucker missed the extra point, but the Ravens were within one.
Cincinnati drove into Baltimore territory, but on both third-and-2 and fourth-and-2, Burrow threw incomplete deep. Jackson gave the Ravens the lead with an 18-yard touchdown pass to Mark Andrews, and then the two-time MVP-winning quarterback ran himself for a 2-point conversion.
Baltimore had 231 of its 389 total yards in the fourth quarter. Jackson threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns and Burrow passed for 428 yards and four TDs.
Christian McCaffrey to make season debut for 49ers
San Francisco 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey will finally make his season debut.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed Thursday that McCaffrey is expected to play Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after missing the first eight games of the season.
Last season’s Offensive Player of the Year has been on injured reserve since the start of the season with what was initially called a calf injury. The injury was later revealed to be Achilles tendonitis in both legs, and McCaffrey met with specialists in Germany in late September.
McCaffrey returned to football activities while the 49ers were on a Week 9 bye and has resumed normal practice this week.
“He's been awesome these last two days,” Shanahan said on a San Francisco radio station on Thursday. “You never know [about] a setback or anything, but these two days have been great, and I expect to see him out there.”
McCaffrey’s return, barring a setback, comes at a key time for 4-4 San Francisco and has apparently boosted team morale.
“It's been awesome,” quarterback Brock Purdy told reporters. “Just what he brings to the table and really just firing everybody else up around. All of us coming off the bye week and feeling good and fresh and then you get 2-3 next to you in the backfield, it's been awesome.
“Looks great moving around and he's trending in the right direction. So, we're excited to see what happens.”
Jordan Mason was off to a tremendous start this season while filling in for McCaffrey and is third in the NFL in rushing yards.
Mason, however, has been limited in recent weeks due to an ongoing shoulder injury, leaving rookie Isaac Guerendo to take on a larger role.
Shanahan also indicated that wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings also benefited from the bye week and are on track to return against the Buccaneers.
The Numbers Game: Can Chelsea dent title hopes of misfiring Gunners?
Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.
Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.
Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.
Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.
We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.
What's expected?
Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.
The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).
Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).
Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.
One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.
Blues eye statement victory
When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.
But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.
They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.
The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.
However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.
Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.
He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.
Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.
Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?
Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals.
This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going.
Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).
While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.
The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).
Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.
Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.
Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.
The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson
Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).
All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven).
He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.
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