The San Francisco 49ers looked destined to contend for a Super Bowl because of their astute move to invest in a quarterback insurance policy for Trey Lance.
Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.
The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.
An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?
Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.
To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.
Still Purdy Good
Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.
The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.
However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.
The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).
As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.
Chiefs Still Reign
The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.
ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.
The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.
On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent.
If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.
A dangerous Wild Card
ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.
Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.
The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.
Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.
By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.
NFL: Chiefs stay perfect with OT win over Bucs
Kareem Hunt finished the game's lone overtime drive with a 2-yard touchdown run that kept the Kansas City Chiefs unbeaten with Monday's 30-24 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Hunt powered into the end zone to conclude the 10-play, 70-yard series that gave Kansas City (8-0) its 14th consecutive victory, including play-off games, dating back to last season. The veteran running back finished the night with a season-high 106 rushing yards on 27 carries.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, including two to DeAndre Hopkins in the wide receiver's first home game as a Chief, to help the defending Super Bowl champions stay perfect despite the Buccaneers forcing overtime on Baker Mayfield's 1-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Miller with 27 seconds left in regulation.
Tampa Bay (4-5) opted to kick the extra point instead of attempting a potential game-winning two-point conversion, however, and never got the ball back again after losing the coin toss to begin overtime.
The Bucs trailed 10-7 at half-time following Mahomes' 1-yard touchdown pass to Hopkins late in the second quarter, but scored 10 unanswered points in the third quarter to move ahead.
After Mayfield found Cade Otton for an 11-yard touchdown pass early in the period for a 14-10 lead, Tampa Bay's defence forced a three-and-out to help set up Chase McLaughlin's 47-yard field goal with 5:50 left in the third.
The Chiefs stormed back with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns, however. Mahomes capped a 12-play, 70-yard drive with a 7-yard touchdown delivery to Samaje Perine to tie the game at 17-17, then later hit Hopkins for a go-ahead 5-yard strike with 4:17 remaining in regulation.
Kansas City's next possession stalled, though, to give Mayfield enough time to orchestrate a 10-play, 71-yard sequence that ended in Miller's tying touchdown grab.
Mayfield finished 23 of 31 with 200 yards and two touchdowns. Otton led the Bucs with 77 receiving yards on eight catches, while Rachaad White had a rushing touchdown for Tampa in the first half.
The Chiefs received 14 catches for 100 yards from Travis Kelce and 86 yards on eight receptions from Hopkins, playing his second game since being acquired by Kansas CIty from the Tennessee Titans on Oct. 24.
Cowboys quarterback Prescott reportedly expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury
The path to the play-offs is now even tougher for the Dallas Cowboys.
Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
The severity of the injury was determined following an MRI, and reported Monday from multiple media outlets.
Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.
Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.
He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.
The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.
They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.
Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.
In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.
There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.
Cowboys quarterback Prescott expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury
The path to the play-offs is now even tougher for the Dallas Cowboys.
Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
The severity of the injury was determined Monday following an MRI.
Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.
Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.
He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.
The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.
They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.
Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.
In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.
There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.
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