The San Francisco 49ers looked destined to contend for a Super Bowl because of their astute move to invest in a quarterback insurance policy for Trey Lance.
Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.
The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.
An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?
Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.
To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.
Still Purdy Good
Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.
The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.
However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.
The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).
As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.
Chiefs Still Reign
The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.
ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.
The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.
On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent.
If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.
A dangerous Wild Card
ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.
Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.
The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.
Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.
By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.
Packers, QB Love agree to 4-year, $220 million contract
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers have agreed to a four-year extension worth $220 million, tying him as the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history, according to multiple sources.
Love, who has only had one full season as an NFL starter, will earn $55 million annually with $155 million guaranteed and a $75 million signing bonus, also the largest in league history.
His yearly salary ties him with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence for highest in NFL history.
After finally trading Aaron Rodgers in April 2023, Love, 25, became the Packers’ undisputed starter. He struggled through the first seven games last season and Green Bay was 2-5 but he took off and the Packers finished 9-8 and earned a wild card spot.
In the Packers’ final eight games of the regular season, Love had 16 touchdowns and one interception. In a 48-32 playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys, he had a near-perfect 157.2 passer rating with 16 of 21 completions for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Love completed 372 of 579 passes (64.2 percent) for 4,159 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
His 32 TD passes ranked second in the NFL behind Dallas’ Dak Prescott (36).
All that production came while Love was throwing to the most productive, young group of receivers since at least 1970. The Packers’ 302 receptions, 3,642 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns are the most by a team’s group of first-or second-year pass catchers since the AFL/NFL merger.
Green Bay also became the youngest team in that same span to win a playoff game with an average age of 25 years and 214 days.
Dolphins extend Tua Tagovailoa on 4-year, $212M deal
The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have agreed to a four-year, $212.4million contract extension, multiple media outlets reported Friday.
The contract, which is the largest in franchise history, reportedly includes $167million in guarantees, which ranks eighth among NFL quarterbacks.
With a long-term deal in place, Tagovailoa can focus on preparing for the upcoming season. He had been a minimal participant in Miami’s initial training camp sessions.
Drafted fifth overall out of Alabama, Tagovailoa has had a passer rating over 100 in each of the last two seasons and answered durability concerns by starting all 17 games last year.
While some pundits had been hesitant to endorse a large extension for Tagovailoa, but Dolphins general manager Chris Grier was determined to keep the left-hander in Miami.
"We're strong believers in him. And you guys all feel [coach Mike McDaniel's] passion about him when he talks about him," Grier said in February.
"Just in the two years of what he's done, he's grown in areas to where he led the league in passing and did some great things this year. And we all feel there's still another level he can take it.
"The way he's attacked this and wants to be great, and the combination of Mike and working with that and that trust and belief in each other, we do think there's still another level which he could go."
Tagovailoa completed 69.3 percent of his passes last season for 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while leading the Dolphins to an 11-6 record. The Dolphins’ play-off appearance was brief, ending in a 26-7 loss in frigid Kansas City in the wild-card round.
Since McDaniel took over as head coach, Tagovailoa ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (8,172), fifth in passing touchdowns (54) and second in passer rating (102.9).
Sesko opts for Leipzig stay over Arsenal, Man Utd move due to progress opportunities
Benjamin Sesko remains certain that staying at RB Leipzig is the "right decision" to develop his career after turning down reported Premier League interest.
Slovenia international Sesko joined Leipzig from RB Salzburg in 2023, scoring 14 league goals last campaign, a tally bettered by only seven players in the German top flight.
That form was said to have attracted Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea to the 21-year-old, who instead signed a new five-year contract with the Bundesliga club last month.
Having committed his future to life at the Red Bull Arena, the striker believes Leipzig will provide a platform for his progression.
"I thought it through very well," Sesko said to Nogomania, a Slovenian media outlet. "I believe I made the right decision. I wanted to gain more experience, learn more, and not rush things.
"Leipzig are an excellent club that can provide what I need for the next step. Leipzig's vision is clear; everything is geared towards growth, progress, and high goals. I felt it was right to decide this way."
Sesko's new deal could see him stay with Leipzig until 2029, with Marco Rose boasting one of the world's most exciting prospects up top.
The Leipzig attacker scored from 14 of his 47 shots last season in the league, a conversion rate of 29.8% – the third-best ratio in the 2023-24 Bundesliga among players to have managed at least five goals.
That deadly finishing in front of goal will have Rose excited once more, and Sesko says his boss was key to the decision to stay.
"We talked," Sesko explained. "He told me he wanted me to stay but also said I should decide based on my feelings.
"He said if I felt I needed to move on, I should go, but if not, I should stay. He's an excellent coach who has led many great players.
"I'm glad I decided this way. I did it before the Euro to keep a clear head and focus entirely on the championship."
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