There are four weeks remaining of the 2022 NFL season, meaning we are in the home stretch not only in the race for the playoffs, but also in the battle for the MVP.
Week 14 was one in which the race appeared to settle into one between four quarterbacks. Other positions are worthy of recognition, but since Adrian Peterson's win in 2012 the MVP has been solely a quarterback award, and there is a quartet who have separated themselves from the rest.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had received some hype as a potential MVP, but his successive disappointing displays against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have likely removed him from the equation.
This has become a fight between the quarterback piloting the best team in the NFC and a trio of signal-callers each hoping to lead their respective rosters to the top seed in the AFC.
Right now, it is the former who stands as the favourite because of a near-perfect resume.
THE FRONTRUNNER: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The competition with more established NFL stars has been fierce but, after recent devastating performances against the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, it is difficult to dispute Hurts as the MVP frontrunner.
A week on from brushing past the Titans, the Eagles swatted the Giants aside at The Meadowlands with another display of effortless dominance powered by Hurts’ ability to hit the deep ball and his influence on an ultra-diverse run game.
Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown for touchdowns of 41 and 33 yards, and also rushed for 77 yards and a score on seven carries. His 13 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards are the most in the NFL while his 10 rushing scores are the sixth-most, and two more than any other quarterback (Justin Fields, eight).
He now has 3,157 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, becoming the the fourth quarterback ever with at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes & 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Kyler Murray (2020), Cam Newton (2011 and 2015) and Kordell Stewart (1997).
Newton won the MVP in 2015 by posting such numbers for a 15-1 Carolina Panthers team that went on to reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles are on course to go 16-1 thanks to Hurts’ growth as a thrower – his well-thrown rate of 82.7 percent is a substantial improvement on his mark of 77.1 per cent from 2021. If they do so, there are unlikely to be many convincing counterarguments against Hurts as the MVP.
DON'T COUNT HIM OUT: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
A three-interception performance by Mahomes against the Denver Broncos may have helped tilt the MVP race in favour of Hurts, but the 2018 MVP is still performing at a level to be worthy of regaining the award.
Mahomes has 60 completions of at least 20 yards this season. No other quarterback has even reached 50, with Joe Burrow his nearest challenger on 46.
He ranks eighth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 83.5 percent, and has been extremely accurate when going deep.
Indeed, Mahomes' completion percentage of 50 on pass attempts of at least 21 air yards is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws. On top of his downfield explosiveness, Mahomes has done an excellent job of creating yardage for himself on the ground, his yards per carry average on scrambles of 7.44 bettered by only Justin Fields (7.98) and P.J. Walker (8.67).
Recent issues with turnovers and the fact the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals may have dented his case but, with four games to go, Mahomes has built the foundations of an MVP resume and still has the chance to earn the prize for a second time if he can lift Kansas City to the one seed.
FADING FAST?: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The resume in terms of achievements for Allen is pretty sparkling. If the season ended today, the Bills would be the number one seed in the AFC and he delivered the tiebreaking win over the Chiefs with a tremendous fourth-quarter performance at Arrowhead.
Allen's deep ball has been extremely impressive this season. No quarterback in the NFL has accounted for more yards on throws of at least 21 air yards than his 833.
The Bills star is also on the right side of the ledger in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82 percent of his passes. The league average – minimum 50 attempts – is 81.4.
However, like Mahomes, Allen has 11 interceptions this season, and has a pickable pass rate of 4.89 percent that is nearly a full point above the average of 4.09%.
His carelessness with the ball has contributed to key defeats to the likes of the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, costing the Bills wins that would have given them clear separation atop the AFC.
Allen is clearly one of the league's premier quarterbacks and will be for many years to come, but the consistency has not been there for him to be considered the MVP at this point.
THE SLEEPER: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
After a slow start, the man who spearheaded the Bengals' improbable charge to an AFC Championship is once again performing at a level that saw him elevate Cincinnati to the ranks of the elite.
Even in hard-fought Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns with a Bengals' offense that has been one of the most productive in the NFL since Week 6 did not fire on all cylinders, Burrow's deadly precision was a difference-maker, most notably on a pinpoint 15-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Marr Chase on a post route to open the scoring.
Burrow delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 percent of his passes against the Browns. For the season, his well-thrown rate of 85.9 percent is fifth among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. His pickable pass rate of just 1.52 percent is the NFL's best.
Burrow is outperforming Hurts, Mahomes and Allen when it comes to delivering accurately and taking care of the ball, and has a signature win over Mahomes to his name from Week 13.
If the Bengals go on to wrest the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow will have an excellent case for the MVP, one that will be even stronger if 9-4 Cincinnati manage to catch Kansas City and Buffalo in the race for the one seed.
Detroit Lions WR St. Brown gets $120M extension
The Detroit Lions have locked up one of their most important players for the foreseeable future by agreeing to a reported four-year, $120 million extension with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
St. Brown, who was entering the final season of his rookie contract, confirmed the news Wednesday with a video message on his Instagram account.
"I can't wait. I'm here, four more years!," St. Brown announced.
One of the NFL's most productive receivers since entering the league as a fourth-round draft pick of the Lions in 2021, St. Brown will now be among the highest-paid players at his position. NFL.com reports the contract, which runs through 2028, includes $77 million in guaranteed money for the largest sum ever for a wide receiver.
The deal's $30 million average annual value is tied for the highest among wide receivers, matching the four-year, $120 million extension Tyreek Hill received from the Miami Dolphins in 2022.
St. Brown earned first team All-Pro honours with a brilliant 2023 campaign in which he finished in the NFL's top three in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,515) and recorded a career-high 10 touchdown catches in 16 games.
The 24-year-old added 22 catches for 274 yards and a touchdown in three post-season games to help the NFC North champion Lions advance to the conference title game for the first time since 1991.
St. Brown's 315 career receptions are the third-most by any player in NFL history through his first three seasons, eclipsed only by Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson's 324 from 2020-22 and Michael Thomas' 321 with the New Orleans Saints from 2016-18.
The two-time Pro Bowler is also one of just three receivers in league history with 90 or more catches through his first three seasons, joining Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014-16).
Broncos reportedly trade for Jets QB Wilson
Zach Wilson has a chance to restart his career in a new setting after the Denver Broncos reportedly traded for the former starting quarterback from the New York Jets on Monday, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.
The Broncos are also acquiring a seventh-round pick in this year's NFL draft, and the Jets will receive a sixth-rounder.
New York will also pay part of Wilson's $5.5million salary next season.
Wilson arrives in Denver after never living up to expectations with the Jets after the franchise selected him second overall in the 2021 draft.
He went 3-10 as a rookie in 2021, and things didn't improve in 2022, leading to his benching.
The Jets had seen enough and decided to move on from Wilson, trading for Aaron Rodgers prior to the 2023 season. Wilson, though, got another chance to start after Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first drive with New York in the season opener.
He was unable to take advantage of that opportunity, however, throwing for eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games in 2023. His 77.2 passer rating ranked 30th out of 32 qualifying QBs last season.
In 34 career games, he has completed 57.0 per cent of his passes for 6,293 yards with 23 TDs and 25 picks.
Among the 30 quarterbacks with a minimum of 700 pass attempts since 2021, Wilson ranks last in completion percentage and QB rating (73.2), and 29th in both touchdown passes and yards per attempt (6.34).
In Denver, he'll likely get a chance to compete for the starting QB job after the Broncos released Russell Wilson in early March.
The only other quarterbacks on Denver's roster are Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, but the team could also decide to select one in Thursday's draft.
Haaland, Palmer, Watkins? Assessing the Premier League's Golden Boot candidates
There is a thrilling three-horse race for the Premier League title as we approach the run-in, but there is also another tussle on the cards.
The Golden Boot is up for grabs, with Erling Haaland having not quite hit the same heights as he did last season, when he broke the Premier League record for goals, with 36.
Manchester City star Haaland is, as it stands, level with his former club-mate Cole Palmer at the top of the competition’s scoring charts, with 20 goals apiece.
Palmer, who will go up against his old club in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend, moved way up in the charts after he netted four times in Chelsea’s 6-0 rout of Everton on Monday.
But with Palmer and Haaland in FA Cup action, there are plenty of other Golden Boot candidates looking to take advantage and nudge themselves to the front of the pack.
Using Opta data, we assess the numbers behind the players vying for this individual accolade.
Erling Haaland (20)
Sure, Haaland might not quite have scaled the same heights as last season, but he has still scored 20 goals in 26 league games, scoring a goal every 109 minutes on average.
However, the Norwegian has actually underperformed his expected goals (xG) of 23.7 – that 3.7 differential is actually the biggest xG underperformance of any player on this list.
What about Haaland’s expected goals on target (xGOT)? That metric can be used to measure the quality of a player’s finishing, and Haaland’s xGOT of 20.3 suggests the 23-year-old is about on track based on where he has been placing his shots.
Haaland has also chipped in with five assists, giving him an overall goal contributions tally of 25. He has created 28 goalscoring chances for team-mates across the campaign.
Of course, Haaland is a penalty box poacher – 16 of his goals have come from inside the area, while 14 of them have come with his stronger left foot.
Cole Palmer (20)
Palmer has stolen the show this season for Chelsea, and is arguably the Blues’ driving force behind their push for European football.
Having signed from City last summer, Palmer has made an instant impact despite only playing 27 times – he averages a goal every 103 minutes, which is better than any of the other candidates featured here.
He scored a perfect hat-trick in the first half of the demolition of Everton, before adding a fourth from the penalty spot after the break – that was Palmer’s ninth successfully converted spot-kick in the league this term.
Unlike Haaland, Palmer has overperformed his xG (15), with his non-penalty xG coming in at 7.9, while also proving his creative talents with nine assists from 53 chances created, which ranks behind only Mohamed Salah (60) of players featured here.
Those 29 goal contributions are matched by only one other Premier League player…
Ollie Watkins (19)
One goal behind Palmer and Haaland, and someone who will be looking to get ahead when Aston Villa face Bournemouth on Sunday, is England international Watkins.
A deft chip in Villa’s brilliant 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out brought up Watkins’ 19th top-flight goal of the campaign – he is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in a single season in the Premier League, matching Christian Benteke (2012-13).
What separates Watkins from Palmer and Haaland is his minutes per goal ratio – Watkins has netted every 147 minutes on average, which is 44 minutes worse off than Palmer and 38 than Haaland.
However, with 10 assists, the former Brentford forward leads the goal contributions charts along with Palmer. Interestingly, however, Watkins’ assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of just 3.6, suggesting he has been the benefactor of some particularly excellent finishing from his Villa team-mates.
A goal against Bournemouth on Sunday would see Watkins become just the third English player to score 20+ goals and assist 10+ goals in a 38-game season, along with Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists)
Watkins has proved to be a deadly finisher under Unai Emery, though the trick for opposing defences could be to prevent him getting space in the area to begin with, given that all 19 of his goals have come from inside the box. Obviously, that is easier said than done.
Mohamed Salah (17)
Liverpool will be hoping to bounce back from their damaging defeat to Crystal Palace last week when they take on Fulham on Sunday, and key to the Reds’ clinching success in Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour will surely be the form of Salah.
Since sustaining an injury at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah has not quite hit top form, but he has still netted 17 goals across 26 league appearances this term, though five of those have been penalties.
With an xGOT of 18.4, Salah can point to some above average goalkeeping as a reason for a small underperformance.
Creatively, Salah has been excellent, providing nine assists and crafting 60 opportunities, but the Reds will need him at his very best in the run-in.
Alexander Isak (17)
Isak was at the double in Newcastle United’s 4-0 thrashing of Tottenham last time out. He has now scored 12 goals in as many Premier League appearances at St James’ Park this season.
His opener against Spurs saw him become the fourth player to score in six consecutive Premier League home matches for Newcastle, with only Andrew Cole (eight) and Alan Shearer (15) having longer such runs, with Isak now level with Les Ferdinand’s best such run. The only other Swede to have netted as many Premier League goals in a single campaign as Isak has this term is the great Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 17 times for Manchester United in 2016-17.
Only Palmer has a better minutes per goal ratio than Isak (104) of the players on this list, while he has overperformed his xG by 1.1.
Isak has not provided quite as much creatively as others on this list, providing just one assist, but his 28.3 per cent shot conversion rate tops this list by some distance, with Palmer (24.4) next best.
Dominic Solanke (17)
Another player on 17 goals, and the final selection here, is Bournemouth talisman Solanke.
His 18.1 per cent shot conversion rate may short fall of the other stars on this list, but Solanke is having a fantastic season, having become Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer in a single campaign, surpassing Joshua King’s tally of 16 from the 2016-17 season.
Only one of Solanke’s strikes has come from the spot, with the 26-year-old outperforming his 15.7 non-penalty xG, though his minutes per goal ratio of 167 is quite a stark drop-off from most of his Golden Boot rivals.
The Chasing Pack
Former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min (15), Jarrod Bowen (15), Bukayo Saka (14) and Phil Foden (14) are all well in the hunt.
The fact that 10 players are within six goals of each other shows just how tight this Golden Boot race is shaping up to be, though the chasing pack are running out of time if they are to make a late push for the award.
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