There are four weeks remaining of the 2022 NFL season, meaning we are in the home stretch not only in the race for the playoffs, but also in the battle for the MVP.
Week 14 was one in which the race appeared to settle into one between four quarterbacks. Other positions are worthy of recognition, but since Adrian Peterson's win in 2012 the MVP has been solely a quarterback award, and there is a quartet who have separated themselves from the rest.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had received some hype as a potential MVP, but his successive disappointing displays against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have likely removed him from the equation.
This has become a fight between the quarterback piloting the best team in the NFC and a trio of signal-callers each hoping to lead their respective rosters to the top seed in the AFC.
Right now, it is the former who stands as the favourite because of a near-perfect resume.
THE FRONTRUNNER: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The competition with more established NFL stars has been fierce but, after recent devastating performances against the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, it is difficult to dispute Hurts as the MVP frontrunner.
A week on from brushing past the Titans, the Eagles swatted the Giants aside at The Meadowlands with another display of effortless dominance powered by Hurts’ ability to hit the deep ball and his influence on an ultra-diverse run game.
Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown for touchdowns of 41 and 33 yards, and also rushed for 77 yards and a score on seven carries. His 13 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards are the most in the NFL while his 10 rushing scores are the sixth-most, and two more than any other quarterback (Justin Fields, eight).
He now has 3,157 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, becoming the the fourth quarterback ever with at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes & 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Kyler Murray (2020), Cam Newton (2011 and 2015) and Kordell Stewart (1997).
Newton won the MVP in 2015 by posting such numbers for a 15-1 Carolina Panthers team that went on to reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles are on course to go 16-1 thanks to Hurts’ growth as a thrower – his well-thrown rate of 82.7 percent is a substantial improvement on his mark of 77.1 per cent from 2021. If they do so, there are unlikely to be many convincing counterarguments against Hurts as the MVP.
DON'T COUNT HIM OUT: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
A three-interception performance by Mahomes against the Denver Broncos may have helped tilt the MVP race in favour of Hurts, but the 2018 MVP is still performing at a level to be worthy of regaining the award.
Mahomes has 60 completions of at least 20 yards this season. No other quarterback has even reached 50, with Joe Burrow his nearest challenger on 46.
He ranks eighth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 83.5 percent, and has been extremely accurate when going deep.
Indeed, Mahomes' completion percentage of 50 on pass attempts of at least 21 air yards is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws. On top of his downfield explosiveness, Mahomes has done an excellent job of creating yardage for himself on the ground, his yards per carry average on scrambles of 7.44 bettered by only Justin Fields (7.98) and P.J. Walker (8.67).
Recent issues with turnovers and the fact the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals may have dented his case but, with four games to go, Mahomes has built the foundations of an MVP resume and still has the chance to earn the prize for a second time if he can lift Kansas City to the one seed.
FADING FAST?: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The resume in terms of achievements for Allen is pretty sparkling. If the season ended today, the Bills would be the number one seed in the AFC and he delivered the tiebreaking win over the Chiefs with a tremendous fourth-quarter performance at Arrowhead.
Allen's deep ball has been extremely impressive this season. No quarterback in the NFL has accounted for more yards on throws of at least 21 air yards than his 833.
The Bills star is also on the right side of the ledger in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82 percent of his passes. The league average – minimum 50 attempts – is 81.4.
However, like Mahomes, Allen has 11 interceptions this season, and has a pickable pass rate of 4.89 percent that is nearly a full point above the average of 4.09%.
His carelessness with the ball has contributed to key defeats to the likes of the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, costing the Bills wins that would have given them clear separation atop the AFC.
Allen is clearly one of the league's premier quarterbacks and will be for many years to come, but the consistency has not been there for him to be considered the MVP at this point.
THE SLEEPER: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
After a slow start, the man who spearheaded the Bengals' improbable charge to an AFC Championship is once again performing at a level that saw him elevate Cincinnati to the ranks of the elite.
Even in hard-fought Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns with a Bengals' offense that has been one of the most productive in the NFL since Week 6 did not fire on all cylinders, Burrow's deadly precision was a difference-maker, most notably on a pinpoint 15-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Marr Chase on a post route to open the scoring.
Burrow delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 percent of his passes against the Browns. For the season, his well-thrown rate of 85.9 percent is fifth among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. His pickable pass rate of just 1.52 percent is the NFL's best.
Burrow is outperforming Hurts, Mahomes and Allen when it comes to delivering accurately and taking care of the ball, and has a signature win over Mahomes to his name from Week 13.
If the Bengals go on to wrest the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow will have an excellent case for the MVP, one that will be even stronger if 9-4 Cincinnati manage to catch Kansas City and Buffalo in the race for the one seed.
The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town
Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.
It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.
A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.
With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds.
Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.
Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.
What's expected?
City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.
Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.
City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).
This match should promise goals, though.
Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.
Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.
Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.
City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.
Classic City, or is there something wrong?
There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.
Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.
City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.
They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.
The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.
Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.
With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.
Road rage
Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).
Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.
As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).
Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).
Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).
Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City - Erling Haaland
Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country.
He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.
Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski
No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.
His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.
NFL: Texans bounce back, extend Cowboys' woes
Joe Mixon's 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns helped get the Houston Texans back on track with Monday's 34-10 win over the floundering Dallas Cowboys.
Houston (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak behind Mixon's powerful running and a defence that sacked Cowboys' fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush five times and forced two turnovers, including a fumble Derek Barnett returned 28 yards for a touchdown that gave the Texans a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter.
Dallas (3-7) has now lost five straight, its longest skid since dropping seven in a row in 2015, and fell to 0-5 at home. The Cowboys have been outscored by 118 points (187-69) at AT&T Stadium, the third-largest negative differential through five home games in a season in NFL history.
Rush did throw a 64-yard touchdown pass to KaVontae Turpin in his second straight start subbing for an injured Dak Prescott, and finished with a career-high 354 passing yards with one interception while completing 32 of 55 attempts.
C.J. Stroud threw for 257 yards with an interception for Houston, which extended its lead over the second-place Indianapolis Colts to two games in the AFC South.
The Texans never trailed after Mixon ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run on the game's opening drive, and the veteran running back added a 1-yard scoring plunge late in the first quarter to give Houston a 14-0 lead.
Turpin got Dallas on the board by taking a short pass from Rush and breaking free from the Houston defence nine seconds into the second quarter, but the Cowboys were shut out in the second half after pulling to within 17-10 on Brandon Aubrey's 53-yard field goal with just under six minutes left before half-time.
Burnett's strip sack of Rush and return of the resulting fumble helped put the game away with 12:31 left, and Mixon tacked on his final touchdown of the night with 3:16 remaining to cap a 35-yard drive that began after the Texans stopped the Cowboys on downs.
Mahomes to use Chiefs' first loss of 2024 as 'spark'
Patrick Mahomes said the Kansas City Chiefs will use their first loss since Christmas Day 2023 as fuel after the Buffalo Bills halted their unbeaten start to the season.
Josh Allen scrambled for a stunning 26-yard touchdown with just over two minutes to play as the Bills improved to 9-2 with a 30-21 win over the reigning Super Bowl champions.
The result ended the Chiefs' 15-game winning streak, a run that began after they lost to the Los Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day last year and included their dramatic triumph over the San Francisco 49ers at Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs had started this season 9-0 to take control of the race for the AFC's top seed, but they could have few complaints about Sunday's result.
The Bills outgained the Chiefs by 366 yards to 259, also recording 24 first downs to Kansas City's 19 and enjoying almost nine more minutes in possession.
Mahomes, however, was relaxed about the end of his team's winning streak, saying: "The undefeated thing was cool, but that's not our ultimate goal.
"It's a good football team, so there's nothing to hang your head about. We feel like we can play better, so we will get back to work and try to use this as a spark so that we can be a better football team in the end."
The Chiefs rank just 16th in the NFL for yards per game (337.9) and 11th for points per game (24) in 2024, with many of their victories – including against the Denver Broncos in Week 10 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 – coming via last-gasp defensive or special teams plays.
Mahomes actually feels the team could benefit from a reality check, adding: "I'm hoping that [losing] is a benefit.
"I'm not going to say I or we are relaxed, but at the same time I feel like we were just coming away with these wins at the end of the games.
"I think it's going to spark us to have more urgency, especially at the start of football games, especially with the offense, and that comes from me and turning the ball over on the first drive. It's something you can't do in big games like this."
No quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Mahomes' 11 (level with Geno Smith and Jordan Love) this season, while a passer rating of 90.3 ranks him a lowly 20th among all players at the position.
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