There are four weeks remaining of the 2022 NFL season, meaning we are in the home stretch not only in the race for the playoffs, but also in the battle for the MVP.
Week 14 was one in which the race appeared to settle into one between four quarterbacks. Other positions are worthy of recognition, but since Adrian Peterson's win in 2012 the MVP has been solely a quarterback award, and there is a quartet who have separated themselves from the rest.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins had received some hype as a potential MVP, but his successive disappointing displays against the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers have likely removed him from the equation.
This has become a fight between the quarterback piloting the best team in the NFC and a trio of signal-callers each hoping to lead their respective rosters to the top seed in the AFC.
Right now, it is the former who stands as the favourite because of a near-perfect resume.
THE FRONTRUNNER: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
The competition with more established NFL stars has been fierce but, after recent devastating performances against the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants, it is difficult to dispute Hurts as the MVP frontrunner.
A week on from brushing past the Titans, the Eagles swatted the Giants aside at The Meadowlands with another display of effortless dominance powered by Hurts’ ability to hit the deep ball and his influence on an ultra-diverse run game.
Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown for touchdowns of 41 and 33 yards, and also rushed for 77 yards and a score on seven carries. His 13 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards are the most in the NFL while his 10 rushing scores are the sixth-most, and two more than any other quarterback (Justin Fields, eight).
He now has 3,157 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 10 rushing touchdowns this season, becoming the the fourth quarterback ever with at least 3,000 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes & 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season, joining Kyler Murray (2020), Cam Newton (2011 and 2015) and Kordell Stewart (1997).
Newton won the MVP in 2015 by posting such numbers for a 15-1 Carolina Panthers team that went on to reach the Super Bowl. The Eagles are on course to go 16-1 thanks to Hurts’ growth as a thrower – his well-thrown rate of 82.7 percent is a substantial improvement on his mark of 77.1 per cent from 2021. If they do so, there are unlikely to be many convincing counterarguments against Hurts as the MVP.
DON'T COUNT HIM OUT: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
A three-interception performance by Mahomes against the Denver Broncos may have helped tilt the MVP race in favour of Hurts, but the 2018 MVP is still performing at a level to be worthy of regaining the award.
Mahomes has 60 completions of at least 20 yards this season. No other quarterback has even reached 50, with Joe Burrow his nearest challenger on 46.
He ranks eighth among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 83.5 percent, and has been extremely accurate when going deep.
Indeed, Mahomes' completion percentage of 50 on pass attempts of at least 21 air yards is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 10 such throws. On top of his downfield explosiveness, Mahomes has done an excellent job of creating yardage for himself on the ground, his yards per carry average on scrambles of 7.44 bettered by only Justin Fields (7.98) and P.J. Walker (8.67).
Recent issues with turnovers and the fact the Chiefs lost to Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals may have dented his case but, with four games to go, Mahomes has built the foundations of an MVP resume and still has the chance to earn the prize for a second time if he can lift Kansas City to the one seed.
FADING FAST?: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The resume in terms of achievements for Allen is pretty sparkling. If the season ended today, the Bills would be the number one seed in the AFC and he delivered the tiebreaking win over the Chiefs with a tremendous fourth-quarter performance at Arrowhead.
Allen's deep ball has been extremely impressive this season. No quarterback in the NFL has accounted for more yards on throws of at least 21 air yards than his 833.
The Bills star is also on the right side of the ledger in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82 percent of his passes. The league average – minimum 50 attempts – is 81.4.
However, like Mahomes, Allen has 11 interceptions this season, and has a pickable pass rate of 4.89 percent that is nearly a full point above the average of 4.09%.
His carelessness with the ball has contributed to key defeats to the likes of the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, costing the Bills wins that would have given them clear separation atop the AFC.
Allen is clearly one of the league's premier quarterbacks and will be for many years to come, but the consistency has not been there for him to be considered the MVP at this point.
THE SLEEPER: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
After a slow start, the man who spearheaded the Bengals' improbable charge to an AFC Championship is once again performing at a level that saw him elevate Cincinnati to the ranks of the elite.
Even in hard-fought Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns with a Bengals' offense that has been one of the most productive in the NFL since Week 6 did not fire on all cylinders, Burrow's deadly precision was a difference-maker, most notably on a pinpoint 15-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Marr Chase on a post route to open the scoring.
Burrow delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 percent of his passes against the Browns. For the season, his well-thrown rate of 85.9 percent is fifth among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. His pickable pass rate of just 1.52 percent is the NFL's best.
Burrow is outperforming Hurts, Mahomes and Allen when it comes to delivering accurately and taking care of the ball, and has a signature win over Mahomes to his name from Week 13.
If the Bengals go on to wrest the AFC North from the Baltimore Ravens, Burrow will have an excellent case for the MVP, one that will be even stronger if 9-4 Cincinnati manage to catch Kansas City and Buffalo in the race for the one seed.
NFL teams unwilling to hand Belichick total control, suggests Pennel
Bill Belichick's failure to land another coaching role in the NFL after leaving the New England Patriots was unsurprising due to the level of control he demands, says his former tackle Mike Pennel.
Belichick is regarded as one of the greatest head coaches in NFL history, leading the Patriots to nine Super Bowls and winning six during 23 seasons in charge between 2000 and 2023.
His six Super Bowl titles as a head coach match the best returns of any franchise in NFL history, with the Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers both possessing six.
He is also within reach of Don Shula's record for the most victories as an NFL head coach, with his total of 333 (including postseason games) putting him 14 behind the Miami Dolphins legend (347).
If only regular-season games are counted, Belichick has 302 victories to Shula's 328.
However, Belichick parted company with the Patriots after they went 4-13 during a dismal 2023 season, and he was unable to land a new role despite being linked with several teams, including the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys.
Pennel, who spent six months with Belichick's Patriots in 2019, believes the level of control he demands over a franchise's direction proved off-putting.
"Bill Belichick's one of the greatest coaches of all time, if not that. So it's going to look a lot different. He was coaching in the NFL before I was even alive," he told Stats Perform.
"I'm clearly just speculating because I'm not part of the New England Patriots franchise, but I just think the situation was, it was that time where they wanted to change.
"They wanted a fresh face and Bill wants things to run a certain way and I don't think franchises are willing to relinquish that much control to a new coach.
"I just think he wants to take his time. I know he's a family man and just wants to enjoy the time with his family. He's already done everything."
Jerod Mayo has taken the reins in Foxborough following Belichick's departure, with quarterback Drake Maye being drafted third overall to lead the team into a new era.
Pennel, however, believes teething problems will be part of the process this year, saying: "It's hard. It takes some time. You know, there's a couple years of transition depending on how much time you have with the players and everything like that.
"You're learning a whole new system. You're learning with all new players, you're learning with all new staff, so it's very hard.
"I don't think it's ever happened like that, in the first year to go to a Super Bowl. It's hard to get to that successful level."
Dolphins coach McDaniel gets three-year extension
The Miami Dolphins have extended the contract of head coach Mike McDaniel through the 2028 season, ESPN reported Friday.
It's a three-year extension for McDaniel, who has two seasons remaining on the four-year contract he signed after being named Miami's head coach in February 2022.
McDaniel has gone 20-14 in two seasons with the Dolphins while leading the team to the playoffs both years, the franchise's first back-to-back postseason appearances since 2000-01. That resurgence has been led by an offence that's been among the NFL's best under the 41-year-old, who came to Miami after serving as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan in 2021.
Miami was especially potent on that side the ball last season, as it led the NFL in total yards and finished second overall in scoring at 29.2 points per game while compiling an 11-6 record to tie for first place in the AFC East.
McDaniel's arrival has also coincided with Tua Tagovailoa's emergence into a top-tier quarterback after the 2020 No. 5 overall pick struggled his first two seasons under the previous coaching regime.
Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 passing yards in 2023 and set a Dolphins single-season record for completion percentage (69.3) while throwing for 29 touchdowns.
McDaniel now joins his quarterback as members of the organisation the Dolphins have locked up for the forseeable future. Tagavoiloa agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension through 2028 last month.
Taylor Swift fame will not hurt Kelce's desire for more Super Bowl glory – Pennel
Travis Kelce's love of football means his off-field fame will not impact his desire to help the Kansas City Chiefs to a Super Bowl three-peat, says team-mate Mike Pennel.
Kelce has become recognised as one of the NFL's best tight ends through 11 seasons with the Chiefs, being named in the first All-Pro team on four occasions and becoming a nine-time Pro Bowler.
His partnership with quarterback Patrick Mahomes has helped the Chiefs win three Super Bowls, including back-to-back crowns to cap the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
However, it is Kelce's relationship with pop superstar Taylor Swift that has taken his off-field image to a new level, making him one of the world's most recognisable sportspeople.
Alongside his brother, former Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce, he also hosts the popular 'New Heights' podcast and has made several television appearances.
Chiefs tackle Pennel says there is no jealousy towards Kelce in the Chiefs' locker room, however.
He told Stats Perform: "We all love it, man. It's a brotherhood, so we're always excited when we see anyone on TV or succeeding off the field.
"Trav definitely was that guy that had that trajectory, you know what I mean? So, to say that we're surprised by it... we're not really. I know that everybody's really happy for him and all the opportunities that he's getting."
The Chiefs are looking to make history in the 2024 season, with a chance to become the first team in the NFL to win three straight Super Bowls.
Of the eight previous teams to win back-to-back championships, none have even reached the Super Bowl in the following season. Pennel, however, believes Kelce's drive could help the Chiefs go where no team has gone before.
"I think it's testament to [general manager Brett] Veach. He puts people in the locker room that love the game of football," he said.
"The money's great and everything like that, but I know genuinely that everyone in our locker room loves football.
"I think that's what it's testament to, he's got all the accolades, he's done everything with all the money and everything, but he generally loves the game of football and loves being competitive and wants to help the Chiefs organisation excel.
"To take that next advantage with getting a three-peat and more Super Bowls, as many as they can during this window."
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