We are firmly in the business end of the 2022 NFL season.
Seven teams have already clinched their place in the postseason and a further seven will join them in the final three weeks of the campaign.
This is the time of year when room for error is diminished in games that have a huge bearing on how the final playoff field shakes out.
As such, festive feeling will be thin on the ground for those teams playing in such encounters during this weekend's Christmas schedule who come up short.
So often, though, these contests are decided by the game within the game, and here Stats Perform looks at three of the most important Week 16 clashes and the personnel matchups that could decide them.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Win Probability: Patriots 52.0 per cent
Key Matchup: Matthew Judon and Josh Uche vs. Bengals offensive line
The Patriots' hopes of claiming a Wild Card berth took a massive blow in bizarre circumstances last week as Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable last-second lateral landed in the grateful arms of Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Chandler Jones, who stiff-armed Mac Jones into the turf and raced into the endzone to deny New England a chance of an overtime win.
At 7-7, they are still just a game behind the Miami Dolphins and must climb off the mat, though they are this week tasked with doing so against one of the hottest teams in football.
The 10-4 Bengals have a one-game edge over the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the AFC North division title, yet there is a matchup the Patriots can look to exploit in this one.
While Cincinnati's offensive line has improved in terms of preventing pressure on Joe Burrow, it remains in the bottom half of the NFL in pass block win rate, in which the Bengals rank 24th.
In Judon and Uche, the Patriots possess a pair of pass rushers who can cause the Cincinnati O-Line huge problems. Judon is second in the NFL in sacks (14.5), behind only Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers, while Uche has 10.5, all of which have come across his last seven games.
Both Judon (40.08 per cent) and Uche (42.38 per cent) possess pass rush win rates way above the average for edge players of 28.74 per cent, and if they are at their best, they could help eradicate the advantage the Bengals have at quarterback and tilt the game in New England's favour.
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
Win Probability: Chiefs 80.4 per cent
Key Matchup: Seattle defensive backs vs. Chiefs receivers
Like the Patriots, the Seahawks' prospects of reaching the postseason are in significant jeopardy.
Their hopes of winning the NFC West are gone after the 49ers clinched the division title in Seattle by completing their first sweep of the Seahawks since 2011 in Week 15.
That leaves Seattle fighting for a Wild Card, and the odds are very much against them in this one against a Chiefs team who are in a battle for the AFC's one seed with the Buffalo Bills.
Part of the reason why the Seahawks are still in the mix is the play of their young but talented secondary, which ranks 13th in the NFL in pass coverage win rate according to Stats Perform's matchup data.
Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has enjoyed an outstanding first season for Seattle, with his combined open percentage allowed across man and zone coverage of 22.75 the seventh-best among corners with at least 100 total matchups.
The Chiefs' pass-catchers are 13th in terms of winning their coverage matchups in 2022, a year in which the loss of Tyreek Hill has undoubtedly had an impact.
Yet with 82.1 per cent of Patrick Mahomes' throws this season going to an open target, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid continues to excel at scheming receivers into space.
For the Seahawks to have any hope of pulling off a sizeable upset, their secondary must limit the chances for the Chiefs' receivers to enjoy such freedom.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Win Probability: Cowboys 59 per cent
Key Matchup: Eagles offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush
This NFC East matchup may have lost some of its lustre with the Eagles needing a meltdown to surrender the division title to the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts out because of a shoulder injury.
But that should not take away from the true heavyweight fight this game provides in the trenches.
Micah Parsons may be losing ground in the Defensive Player of the Year race, but he remains the headline act for a defense that is first in the NFL in pass rush win rate.
That would normally give the Cowboys a clear edge in a matchup with every offensive line, but not with this one.
Philadelphia's O-line leads the league in pass block win rate, with the Eagles allowing a pressure rate of 32.9 per cent that is the fourth-best in the NFL.
The Eagles maintaining their strength up front against Parsons and Co. will obviously be critical to Philadelphia as they seek to overcome the absence of Hurts.
There is no substitute for the value Hurts brings in the run game, but the Cowboys' defense has shown enough vulnerability to suggest backup quarterback Gardner Minshew can have success against Dallas, provided the offensive line wins the battle up front and allows the Eagles to stay on schedule.
Everton 0-0 Newcastle United: Pickford penalty heroics deny Goodison old boy Gordon
Everton old boy Anthony Gordon saw a penalty saved on his return to Goodison Park as Newcastle United were held to a 0-0 draw on Saturday.
Gordon had been Newcastle's spot-kick hero a week earlier, winning and converting a penalty to earn a point against Manchester City, but his failure this time cost the Magpies.
After James Tarkowski's foolish foul on Sandro Tonali gave Gordon, who left Everton for Newcastle in January 2023, his opportunity from 12 yards, he could not find a way past England team-mate Jordan Pickford.
The save from Pickford was heartily celebrated by the Everton fans, though their fury was directed at referee Craig Pawson midway through the second half, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin felt he too should have had a penalty.
Idrissa Gueye missed a huge chance as part of that incident, before Gordon was wasteful again late on as both sides were forced to settle for a point.
It nudges Sean Dyche's side further clear of the relegation zone, while Newcastle can at least take solace in a place in the top six.
Data Debrief: Gordon's Goodison nightmare
Gordon was at the centre of attention right from the outset, jeered by the Everton fans and on the end of a number of heavy challenges from his former team-mates. He won four fouls, more than any other player on the pitch.
So the Newcastle winger was clearly determined to provide a response when the visitors were awarded a penalty, stepping up as he had against City but this time denied by Pickford. This was Pickford's first Premier League penalty save since May 2023, ending a run of eight consecutive concessions against a man he knows so well from both club and international duty.
Gordon should have done better late on, too. He had only two shots, but they were worth a combined 0.87 xG – more than Everton's total of 0.73.
Manchester City 3-2 Fulham: Kovacic's brace helps champions keep pressure on Liverpool
Mateo Kovacic's brace helped Manchester City come from behind to beat Fulham 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium.
The former Chelsea midfielder struck either side of half-time, with Jeremy Doku also on target, to give Pep Guardiola's side their first win in three in the Premier League and keep the pressure on leaders Liverpool, who beat Crystal Palace earlier on Saturday.
City fell behind midway through the first half when Andreas Pereira volleyed in Raul Jimenez's back-heeled cross from close range, but Fulham passed up chances to add to their lead.
Kovacic's goals either side of half-time, and a clinching third from Doku ultimately made the visitors pay for their wastefulness, although substitute Rodrigo Muniz set up a nervy finish for the champions when he halved the deficit with two minutes to play.
City held on to stay second and move onto 17 points – one behind Liverpool – while Fulham remain sixth on 11 ahead of seventh-placed Newcastle United playing later in the day.
Data Debrief: 400 up for Walker as City hit half-century
In the second half, Kyle Walker sprinted on for his 400th Premier League appearance, becoming the 44th different player to hit the milestone.
His defensive efforts helped City equal their club record of 30 consecutive unbeaten Premier League games, while they are now 50 without defeat at home across all competitions - becoming only the fourth English top-flight side to achieve that feat.
However, they are now without a clean sheet in nine straight league games on home soil - equalling their club record - but Fulham could not take advantage, suffering their first defeat after scoring the opening goal in 20 matches.
Djokovic recovers from slow start to move past Michelsen on Shanghai return
Novak Djokovic marked his Shanghai Masters return with a hard-fought straight-sets win over Alex Michelsen.
The four-time champion, who is appearing in this event for the first time since 2019, required two tie-breaks before prevailing 7-6 (7-3) 7-6 (11-9) in just under two hours.
Djokovic, still donning a protective sleeve over his right knee, made a slow start in only his second match since losing to Alexei Popyrin in the US Open third round, winning just four points in the first three games as he fell 4-1 behind.
However, the 24-time major winner broke back in the seventh game before dominating the tie-break for first blood.
Roles were reversed in the second set as Michelsen cancelled out an earlier break in game seven.
However, the American squandered two set points to level and was eventually punished by Djokovic, who will play either 28th seed Flavio Cobolli or three-time major winner Stan Wawrinka in the next round.
Data Debrief: Djokovic continues American dominance
Djokovic was given an early scare, but his experience eventually showed as he came through.
Including team events, the Serb has now won his last 33 ATP-level matches against American opponents, with his last such defeat coming against Sam Querrey at Wimbledon in 2016.
The 24-time major winner also demonstrated his determination when the pressure intensified, and he has now come through 12 of his 16 tie-breaks played this season.
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