The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.
Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.
Sort of.
The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.
For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.
So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...
Nowhere near
This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.
The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.
The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.
The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.
Entering contention
If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.
Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.
The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.
NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.
The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.
In their prime
The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).
The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.
The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.
The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).
Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...
Last chance saloon
As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.
Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).
They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.
The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.
Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.
Missed their chance
Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.
For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.
Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.
The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).
Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.
Jaiswal, Kohli tons put India on the verge of win against Australia
Yashasvi Jaiswal and Virat Kohli bagged magnificent centuries to put India in a commanding position on day three of their first Test match against Australia in Perth.
India declared in a dominant position of 487-6 after Jaiswal (161) built on their 172-0 at stumps on day two and former captain Kohli (100 not out) added quick runs with his first century in 16 months coming up during the final hour.
The tourists then wreaked havoc with the ball in five overs before stumps as captain Jasprit Bumrah dismissed debutant Nathan McSweeney (zero) and Marnus Labuschagne (three) before nightwatchman Cummins (two) fell to Mohammed Siraj with the score at 12, as the hosts trail by 521 runs with seven wickets in hand.
Earlier in the Test, India had scored 150 batting first before bundling out Australia for 104 in the first innings.
Jaiswal resumed his innings at 90 on the third day and brought up his century in the first hour before KL Rahul departed for 77 after an opening-wicket partnership of 201.
The centurion fell as India's third wicket at 313-3 as Australia picked up three wickets in the space of eight runs, but Kohli reached his ton with help from Washington Sundar (29) and Nitish Kumar Reddy (38 not out) as India asserted their dominance.
Girona 4-1 Espanyol: Miovski bags double as hosts ride on first-half blitz
Bojan Miovski scored twice as Girona thrashed Espanyol 4-1 in LaLiga at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi on Saturday.
Bryan Gil and Ladislav Krejci were also on the scoresheet as the home side raced to a 4-0 lead inside the first half hour, with Javi Puado scoring the visiting side's only goal after the break.
After the match was halted because of a fan being taken ill in the crowd, Gil opened the scoring when he unleashed a stunning long-range strike into the bottom corner with four minutes on the clock.
Gil was behind the second goal for Michel's side too, as he capitalised on a defensive error and crossed to Miovski, who made it 2-0 in the 16th minute before the pair combined again for a third five minutes later.
Donny van de Beek's header from Yaser Asprilla's corner was pushed in by Krejci for Girona's fourth in the 27th minute.
Espanyol got a consolation goal 10 minutes into the second half when Puado hit a long-range strike that found the back of Paulo Gazzaniga's net.
Girona, last season's surprise package, climbed to fifth in LaLiga with 21 points, while Espanyol are 19th and in the relegation zone with 10 points.
Milan 0-0 Juventus: Bianconeri maintain unbeaten start after Rossoneri stalemate
Milan and Juventus shared the spoils following a dour goalless draw at San Siro.
The Bianconeri maintained their unbeaten start to the Serie A season, but missed the chance to go second behind leaders Inter after a game lacking in quality and chances.
With the likes of Dusan Vlahovic and Arkadiusz Milik out injured, Juventus began the game without a recognised striker, as Teun Koopmeiners and Weston McKennie led the line.
Koopmeiners hit the side-netting from a tight angle after 10 minutes, while Kenan Yildiz grazed the post following a fine individual run midway through the half.
Alvaro Morata had Milan's best chance at the other end, but the former Juventus striker could only head wide from Rafael Leao's free-kick.
Opportunities did not fall as freely in the second half either, and both teams left the field to a chorus of boos on the referee's final whistle.
Data Debrief: Stubborn Juve take clean sheet tally into double figures
Juve are the first team to register 10 clean sheets in their opening 13 matches of a Serie A season since Roma (also 10) in 2013-14.
The Bianconeri have also kept five clean sheets in their first six away league games in a campaign for only the fourth time, also achieving the feat in 1967-68, 2004-05, 2023-24.
Meanwhile, Thiago Motta is only the fifth Juventus manager to go unbeaten in his first 13 league matches in charge (won six, drawn seven), after Jesse Carver, Cestmir Vycpalek, Antonio Conte and Maurizio Sarri.
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