
Tags: Football, Chelsea Women, Manchester City Women, Sonia Bompastor
Chelsea remain in the hunt for four trophies this season after their remarkable Women's Champions League comeback against Manchester City.
We are in the final stretch of the Women's Super League season, with things heating up at both ends of the table with only five games left.
Chelsea lead the way by eight points, and it would take some going for them to slip up now.
The Blues' quadruple hopes are firmly on after their exceptional Women's Champions League comeback against Manchester City.
Chelsea can take one step closer to a first WSL title under Sonia Bompastor against West Ham, while City will hope to bounce back as they travel to Brighton.
Arsenal are also looking to keep the pressure on the Blues and come into this weekend on a high after a Champions League comeback of their own, with the Gunners having overturned a 2-0 first-leg defeat at Real Madrid to progress after winning 3-0 at home on Wednesday.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, are looking to put last weekend's heavy defeat to Manchester United behind them when they face Liverpool, with relegation worries piling up, while the Red Devils host an Everton side on the up.
Leicester City are not out of danger yet either, and will be looking to put distance between themselves and the danger zone when they face Tottenham.
But, who does the Opta supercomputer think will be the winners and losers on matchday 18?
MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON
Sunday's action begins at the Leigh Sports Village, with Man Utd having the chance to move second by beating Everton, with Arsenal not playing until later on.
United are firm favourites, with a 73.7% chance of coming away with three points, which is no surprise as they have won nine of their last 11 WSL meetings with Everton (D2).
Everton's 11-game winless run against United is the most they have ever faced a team in the competition without coming out on top. They are given just an 11% chance of winning, with a draw rated at 15.3%.
And though the Toffees beat Villa away from home on MD15, they have not won back-to-back games on the road since May 2024.
They face a stern United defence, which could see them struggle with only a 20% shot conversion rate in 2025 (12 goals from 61 shots). The hosts, meanwhile, have scored with 40% of their shots on target in the WSL this term (34/84), the best rate of any side.
CRYSTAL PALACE V ARSENAL
Palace are facing a very real threat of relegation back down to the second tier, with a resurgent Arsenal, who will be buoyed by their midweek win, their visitors on Sunday.
However, the Eagles were triumphant in their last match on home soil, earning a much-needed victory over Villa earlier this month.
They could be the first newly promoted side to win back-to-back home matches since Liverpool in May 2023.
Unsurprisingly, Arsenal are expected to extend their WSL winning streak, with a whopping 78.9% chance of victory. While they lost their first-ever WSL game against a promoted team in May 2014 (1-0 v Man City), they are unbeaten in 26 league matches against such opposition since (W23 D3).
They have a good record against Palace too, winning their last two meetings in all competitions by an aggregate score of 14-0 (9-0 in the FA Cup in May 2021 and 5-0 in the reverse fixture).
And given that the Gunners have won 10 of their last 11 WSL matches (L1) and Palace have lost 71% of their 17 games in the competition this season, the Eagles' hopes of three points sit at only 9.2%, with a draw occurring in 11.9% of the simulations.
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
Villa are also in trouble at the bottom of the table as they continue their search for a first league win in 2025, going winless in each of their last seven outings (D1 L6).
They have lost each of their last six WSL games – the last two sides to suffer that many consecutive defeats in the same season were Bristol City in May 2024 (nine) and Reading in May 2023 (six), both of whom were relegated to the Championship.
Liverpool will prove tough opposition to end that run. Their recent uptick in form was promptly halted by a clinical Arsenal last time out, but the Reds have won each of their last three league games against Villa.
Having also won each of their last three WSL home games (they last won four in a row in October 2014), the Opta supercomputer expects them to win, with a 62.9% chance of claiming the points.
Natalia Arroyo's chances of earning a first win in charge of Villa sit at 17.4%.
If they are to end their eight-game winless streak on the road, they could look to Jordan Nobbs, who has scored more goals against Liverpool in the WSL (10) than any other opponent.
LEICESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM
While there is now a six-point buffer between Leicester and bottom-placed Palace, the Foxes are not out of danger heading into the run-in, and a win would go a long way to ensuring they can feel rather more comfortable over the next month or so.
Leicester have won three of their last six WSL games (L3), as many victories as across their previous 31 league matches (W3 D9 L19). They have also been triumphant in their last three at home in the competition.
Having lost their first two home games against Spurs, Leicester drew this exact fixture 1-1 last season, but in order to leapfrog their opponents in the table, they will need to do something they have never managed before.
Tottenham have faced Leicester more often without losing than any other opponent in the WSL (W6 D1), but they have lost each of their last five league matches, drawing a blank in four of those.
This game is almost too close to call, with a 26.4% chance of a draw - the highest draw likelihood of any fixture this week.
The likelihood of a win for Amandine Miquel's side is 37.7%, while the visitors have a 35.9% win probability.
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION V MANCHESTER CITY
It all looked so promising for Man City after their 2-0 win over Chelsea in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie.
But now Nick Cushing must rally his troops from Thursday's morale-sapping defeat for a quick turnaround as they head to Brighton.
The Citizens are favourites for this one, though, getting back to winning ways in the WSL in 73.7% of the model's pre-match simulations, which should come as no surprise given City have won all five of their away games against Brighton by an aggregate score of 25-3.
Brighton, meanwhile, have just an 11.5% chance of winning and a 14.8% probability of earning a draw. They have won just one of their 12 WSL meetings with City (D1 L10), with their only victory coming on the road in November 2023 (1-0).
The Seagulls had made a stellar start to 2024-25, winning five of their first eight games (D1 L2), but they have since won only one of nine league matches (D3 L5). Despite that, Brighton remain one of three teams still unbeaten at home.
City have failed to win their last two WSL matches (D1 L1), despite taking a 1-0 lead in both; they last went on a longer winless run in the competition in October 2021, and Cushing really could do with his first top-flight win since his return to the dugout, although this will be the first time since he replaced Gareth Taylor that his team are not facing Chelsea.
CHELSEA V WEST HAM UNITED
Chelsea are simply unstoppable, or at least it seems that way. Captain Millie Bright said the Blues never had any doubt they would hit back to overcome City in Europe, but now their focus will turn to getting the job done and dusted in the WSL.
Chelsea, who have a 99.5% likelihood of winning the title according to Opta's supercomputer, are the most likely team to earn a win this weekend, with an 89.1% chance of success.
West Ham's chances are at a slim 3.8%, with a draw only slightly more likely at 7.1%.
The Blues have won 12 of their 13 meetings with West Ham in the WSL (W12 D1), while they also have the best win rate in London derbies in the competition (68% - won 36/53), winning 13 of the last 14.
West Ham are on a strong run, though, winning three of their last six WSL games (D1 L2), more than they managed across the 20 matches prior, so perhaps this will not be the walkover the model is forecasting, albeit it would take a brave person to bet against the Blues, given the form they are in.
And, since earning a 1-1 draw in their first league away game against Chelsea, the Hammers have lost five on the bounce by an aggregate score of 18-3, a run that does not bode well against Bompastor's unbeaten team in the league.