Patrick Mahomes has taken responsibility for the Kansas City Chiefs' inconsistent start to the season on offense despite a largely new cast of receivers.

The Chiefs fell to 2-1 with Sunday's 20-17 defeat to the previously winless Indianapolis Colts.

After dominating the Arizona Cardinals in a 44-21 Week 1 victory, Kansas City had just 20 points on offense in their 27-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers and came up short against the Colts.

Only three times in Mahomes' career have the Chiefs scored fewer than 17 points in a regular season game.

The superstar quarterback completed only 20 of his 35 pass attempts for 262 yards and a single touchdown, also throwing an interception on the team's final drive as they sought to force overtime.

After scoring TDs on their first two visits to the red zone, the Chiefs returned only three points from their final two, with Matt Ammendola's fourth-quarter field-goal miss proving costly.

This inefficiency might be explained by the absence of Tyreek Hill – traded to the 3-0 Miami Dolphins – but Mahomes is not looking for excuses.

"I don't expect any growing pains," he said. "Obviously we have new players and you don't know everybody's going to respond to tough situations.

"We've got to gel all together. It starts with me. There were certain throws I was putting on guys' back hips instead of in front of him. There were certain situations where we were just barely off of it.

"Whenever you're playing a tough game like that, you have to execute at a higher level and we have to learn from it.

"Our schedule gets no easier. We have a hard game Sunday [against] Tampa next week with a great defense, so we have to get better quickly.

"And if we don't, we don't want these [losses] to start piling up. We want to make sure we get back on that winning train."

For the season, only the Detroit Lions (11) have scored more red zone TDs than the Chiefs (nine from 13 RZ drives), who rank eighth in red zone TD efficiency.

Last year, the Chiefs were 14th in efficiency, scoring 41 touchdowns from 68 red zone drives.

The Miami Dolphins moved to 3-0 for the season and handed the Buffalo Bills their first defeat with a narrow 21-19 victory at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

The Bills had lived up to their pre-season Super Bowl favourites tag after outscoring their opponents 72-17 in their first two outings, but they came unstuck in Florida.

Two touchdowns from Chase Edmonds propelled the Dolphins to a first win in eight against the Dolphins and gave them sole possession of top spot in the AFC East.

The Dolphins came out on top despite being outgained 497-212 in total yards, with Buffalo picking up 31 first downs to their opponents' 15.

Josh Allen has often been a menace against the Dolphins and completed a career-high 42 passes from 63 attempts for 400 yards and two touchdowns, but it was not enough for the Bills.

Miami took the lead with 10 minutes remaining through the second of Edmonds' touchdowns, and held on despite punter Thomas Morstead bizarrely kicking one into his own teammates' rear end and out of bounds for a safety.
 
Allen drove the Bills as far as Miami's 41-yard line on a completion to Isaiah McKenzie, but he was unable to get out of bounds and the clock struck zero before Allen could spike the ball for a potential game-winning field goal.

Jackson's five inspires Ravens

Lamar Jackson's five touchdowns inflicted a 37-26 loss on the New England Patriots and moved the Baltimore Ravens 2-1 in the AFC North.

Jackson became the first player in NFL history to register three-plus pass touchdowns and 100+ rushing yards twice in the same season, doing so in back-to-back games.

Mac Jones matched Jackson with a rushing touchdown and threw for 323 yards, but the Pats' offense ultimately self-destructed in a disappointing defeat at Gillette Stadium, with Jones limping off at the end to add insult to injury.

Mahomes interception proves costly

Rodney McLeod picked off Patrick Mahomes with eight seconds left for the latter's first interception of the season as the Indianapolis Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17.

Mahomes finished the game 20 for 35 for 262 yards, one touchdown and that costly interception that saw the Chiefs fall to 2-1 for the year.

The Colts only took the lead with 24 seconds left in the fourth quarter as Matt Ryan and Jelani Woods hooked up for the second time with a 12-yard touchdown.

Two weeks down in the NFL and the action has been sensational so far.

Late comebacks were the name of the game last week and Week 3 promises to bring even more excitement.

Sunday sees the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins battle it out to remain undefeated, the Baltimore Ravens will aim to respond to a Week 2 defeat against the New England Patriots, while the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans fight to pick up a first win of the season.

There's plenty more on the agenda and Stats Perform has used Opta data to preview the action.

Buffalo Bills (2-0) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Bills travel to Florida having won their past seven games against the Dolphins, outscoring them by better than a two-to-one margin (258-123). That marks Buffalo's longest winning streak against Miami, beating a run of six consecutive victories from 1987 to 1989.

Buffalo have outscored their opponents 72-17 so far this season to stand 2-0, with the +55-point differential their second-best through the first two games of a season. In 1981, they won their opening two matches by a combined score of 66-3 (+63 points).

The Dolphins overcame a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit (35-14) in last week's 42-39 win at Baltimore, marking the sixth time since 1925 that an NFL team has won a game in regulation time after trailing by such a margin in the fourth quarter. The last such comeback win was in 2010, when the Eagles beat the Giants 38-31 in Week 16, having trailed 31-10.

Tua Tagovailoa threw six touchdown passes, including four in the fourth quarter, against the Ravens last week. Since 2001, the only other player to throw four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter of an NFL game was Sage Rosenfels for the Texans against the Titans in Week 7 of the 2007 season, though Houston lost 38-36.

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) @ New England Patriots (1-1)

The Patriots have a 9-2 record against the Ravens in the regular season, the best record by any team against Baltimore in their history – though they have split four postseason matches.

Lamar Jackson became the first player in NFL history to have a 75+ yard passing touchdown and a 75+ rushing touchdown in the same game during last weekend's defeat to the Dolphins.

In week 2, the Patriots beat the Steelers 17-14. Since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000, the Patriots are 42-23 in games decided by three of fewer points, the best such record in the NFL.

Nelson Agholor recorded 110 receiving yards in Week 2, becoming the first Patriot with a 100-yard game since Jakobi Meyers in Week 15, 2020. That brought an end to a 20-game streak without a 100-yard receiver for the Patriots, which was the longest spell in the Belichick era.

Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2)

The Raiders have won their past three games on the road against the Titans. The last time the Raiders won four straight road games against a single opponent was a six-game streak against the Chiefs from 2007 to 2012.

An 29-23 overtime loss to the Cardinals in Week 2 came despite them holding a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter, marking the biggest fourth-quarter blown lead for a loss in franchise history.

The Titans are 0-2 for the first time since 2012 and last started a season 0-3 in 2009. The 41-7 loss to the Bills last week was the largest defeat suffered by the Titans under Mike Vrabel.

Both the Raiders and Titans are 0-2 this season after making the playoffs a season ago. Neither franchise has ever started a season with two defeats and rallied to make the playoffs, while the last NFL teams to do so being the Texans and Seahawks in 2018.

Elsewhere…

Chicago host the Texans with just 432 offensive yards to their name so far this season, the worst in the NFL and the fewest yards the Bears have gained in the opening two weeks of a campaign since they had 335 net yards at the same stage in 2003.

Patrick Mahomes rallied the Chiefs offence to a 27-24 victory against the Chargers last week, overcoming a 17-7 second-half deficit, and are eyeing a third-straight win this season against the Colts. Since his first NFL season (2018), the Chiefs have more comeback victories after trailing in the second half (17) than any other NFL side.

The Saints travel to Carolina on the back of a 20-10 home defeat to the Buccaneers last week. Dating back to last season, New Orleans have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their past nine games (1-4). When they have scored 18 or more, they stand at 4-0.

The Cincinnati Bengals have plenty to do offensively against the Jets, with Joe Burrow having been sacked 13 times so far this season and thrown four interceptions. The last QB to be sacked that many times while throwing as many picks in the opening two weeks of a season was Danny White of the Cowboys in 1987.

The NFL has suspended Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay for four games for violating the league's personal conduct policy.

The suspension was revealed on Monday and stems from an arrest in January, when the 24-year-old was charged with misdemeanour criminal property damage at the home of the mother of his son.

He started in both of Kansas City's playoff games last January following the arrest, and agreed to a pre-trial diversion program over the summer to conclude the case.

Gay has started both games for the 2-0 Chiefs this season and is tied with L'Jarius Sneed for second on the team with 16 tackles. He also has two tackles for loss, two passes defended and one quarterback hit.

It is uncertain if Gay will appeal the suspension in an effort to get it reduced, but as it stands, he will miss games against the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills, and will be eligible to return against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.

Patrick Mahomes just about got the better of Justin Herbert on Thursday but expects the Los Angeles Chargers to continue to push his Kansas City Chiefs all the way.

Both the Chiefs and the Chargers are tipped for Super Bowl contention this year in a highly talented AFC West.

Kansas City have won the division six years in a row, but the scale of their task this season was made clear in this meeting with the Chargers, who forced Mahomes to rally from a 17-7 deficit to win 27-24.

Herbert admirably battled a rib injury as he attempted to take down Mahomes, yet the former MVP delivered yet another comeback.

This was the 20th game of Mahomes' career – regular season or playoffs – in which he had been down by 10 points, and he has now converted 11 of those into wins.

Past turnarounds include the Super Bowl LIV success against the San Francisco 49ers when the Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, as well as Herbert's NFL debut, when the Chargers lost in overtime early in the 2020 season.

"I think every game [against Herbert] is going to be a lot like this one," Mahomes told Amazon Prime Video.

"In the games I've played against him in the past, we've gone to overtime twice and it's been an end-of-game situation.

"It's going to be games like this, and hopefully I can find a ways to win them and our team can find a ways to win them, like we did today."

Mahomes is the only NFL quarterback with a winning record in games where he has trailed by double-digit points (minimum 20 starts), with Tom Brady next-best at 39-61 (.390).

"I want to go out there and win; I don't care how it looks," Mahomes added. "Tonight was very ugly.

"I'm sure it's not going to have a great film session tomorrow, but we found a way to get a win at the end of the day, and that's all I care about."

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley says they will learn more about the severity of quarterback Justin Herbert's apparent ribs injury on Friday but is confident he will be OK.

Herbert played through apparent pain in Thursday's 27-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs following a series of big tackles on the QB in the fourth quarter.

The Chargers QB still managed to find DeAndre Carter and then Josh Palmer in an impressive drive for a late touchdown but seemed in discomfort and gestured towards his ribs on the sidelines.

Herbert did not appear for post-game media duties, instead going off for an X-ray on the injury, although Staley was confident he would be fine.

"No," Staley told reporters when asked if he was concerned about Herbert's health. "No, because he's Justin Herbert."

Staley added: "You're not going to see a quarterback at any level of football play tougher and do more for their team and will their team to give them a chance more than him.

"There's nobody that can do what he can do, nobody. He showed a lot of guts, he showed us what he shows every day, that we're never out of the fight, and he brought us back and gave us a chance."

Despite that, Staley revealed they anticipate they will learn more about Herbert's health on Friday after a more thorough evaluation.

The Kansas City Chiefs fought back from another double-digit deficit sparked by rookie Jaylen Watson's 99-yard pick six as they won 27-24 over the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday.

Patrick Mahomes produced a patient display, throwing two touchdowns and completing 24 of 35 passes for 235 yards, leading them back from a 17-7 deficit to make it two wins to start the new season.

Justin Herbert was gallant for the Chargers, playing through considerable pain after a series of fourth-quarter hits, to end with three TD passes, completing 33 of 48 passes for 334 yards but with one interception.

That interception came in the fourth quarter with scores locked at 17-17, with Herbert aiming for Gerald Everett on the goalline, only for Watson to clasp it and race away for the game-winning TD.

The Chargers had led 10-7 at half-time, with rookie Alexander Horvath making it two touchdowns in his first two games, before Mahomes' side-arm fastball found Jerick McKinnon for the reply, moving him past Alex Smith for the third-most completions (1,588) in franchise history in the process.

Mike Williams, who had eight receptions for 113 yards, plucked a remarkable one-handed catch under tight coverage from L'Jarius Sneed to put the Chargers up 17-7.

The Chargers were left frustrated after two interceptions were overturned before Mahomes found Travis Watson with a 41-yard pass to score. The Chiefs would pile on 20 unanswered points after rookie Watson made his pick six before Matt Ammendola converted a 32-yard attempt.

Herbert found DeAndre Carter with a late dart before showing poise under apparent duress from a fourth and goal to hit Josh Palmer to make it 27-24. The Chargers confirmed after the game that Herbert would undergo an X-ray.

Thursday night’s marquee matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs features two potent offenses, but one team will be decidedly short-handed with decorated Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

Allen was forced to leave the Chargers’ Week 1 24-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half after he had four receptions for 66 yards. Allen said he felt a slight pull, and the hamstring tightened after he planted his foot to the turf during the second quarter.

Coach Brandon Staley on Tuesday said Allen's injury ''is going to take some time''.

Without Allen, fellow receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer figure to assume enlarged roles, with DeAndre Carter also likely to see increased playing time. Both Palmer and Carter had three catches against the Raiders.

Allen has been mostly durable during his 10-year career and has appeared in 16 games in four of the previous five seasons. The only significant time he missed was after he tore his ACL in the opening week of the 2016 season.

The 30-year-old Allen has caught at least 95 passes each of the past five years, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. He leads the league in catches over the past five seasons, where he has posted at least 1000 receiving yards in each and is a five-time Pro Bowl selection.

Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley were recognised as the respective AFC and NFC Offensive Player of the Week after flying starts to the new NFL season.

Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a dominant 44-21 Week 1 win at the Arizona Cardinals.

The 2018 MVP leads the league in passing touchdowns (five), passing yards (360) and quarterback rating (144.2) at this early stage.

Only Joe Burrow matched Mahomes' 22 passes for first downs, while he did not throw an interception and was not sacked, making him an obvious choice as the standout player in the AFC.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, who played a vital role in the Pittsburgh Steelers' wild win over Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals, is the AFC Defensive Player of the Year.

The Steelers safety caught a pick-six from Burrow's first pass of the game and later, crucially, blocked Evan McPherson's PAT to take the game to overtime.

Cade York was more accurate as time expired in the Cleveland Browns' dramatic victory over the Carolina Panthers, kicking the winning field goal to earn AFC Special Teams Player of the Week recognition.

In the NFC, New York Giants running back Barkley was the standout player on offense, stealing the show against a Tennessee Titans team featuring two-time rushing yards and rushing TDs leader Derrick Henry.

Barkley has the most rushing yards at this early stage with 164 and a score. His 68-yard run in the drive that culminated in his TD was the longest carry of the week.

The fifth-year superstar, who has been hampered by injuries since an outstanding rookie season, also caught a Daniel Jones pass for the decisive two-point conversion in a 21-20 Giants victory.

Also honoured in the NFC were debutant Seattle Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu and Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Zech McPhearson.

Nwosu sacked the Denver Broncos' former Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and forced a fumble from Melvin Gordon at the one-yard line, while McPhearson fielded the Detroit Lions' attempted onside kick to set up a Boston Scott touchdown in an Eagles win.

How quickly the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense would adjust to the loss of Tyreek Hill was the question on everyone’s minds entering the 2022 NFL season – but Patrick Mahomes and his teammates had a quick and emphatic answer.

Mahomes was nearly flawless and the offense unstoppable at times as the AFC powerhouses started their campaign with Sunday’s 44-21 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, extending the NFL’s current longest active wining streak in season openers.

The Chiefs didn’t miss a beat in their first outing since trading Hill, a six-time Pro Bowler who amassed a team-high 111 catches and 1,239 receiving yards in 2021, to the Miami Dolphins in March. Kansas City scored touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, with each drive 75 yards or longer, to build a 20-7 lead midway through the second quarter and force the Cardinals into catch-up mode right from the outset.

Mahomes capped each of those series with touchdown passes – two to running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire – while completing a razor-sharp 16 of 19 throws for 163 yards over the course of those three drives.

"Guys were just ready to go," Mahomes said. "They were excited to get out there and show what we had. Everybody’s asked us the questions of what this offense, what this team’s going to look like. We’ve always believed that we were going to go out there and put on a show and I thought guys did that."

Mahomes didn’t stop there, finishing with five TD passes while completing 30 of 39 attempts for 360 yards without an interception to lead Kansas City to their eighth consecutive season-opening win under coach Andy Reid.

The 2018 NFL MVP has started the past five of those lid-lifters, and thrown for 18 touchdowns and no interceptions in those games.

"It’s coach Reid getting more weeks to game-plan," Mahomes said of his history of early-season success. "That’s always a good thing for me because he’s getting guys kind of running wide open.

"But then I think it’s (also) how we do training camp. It prepares you to be ready Week 1. Coach has a great game-plan in, you have guys flying around that are ready to go, ready to play a game and not be at practice against each other. We’ve done a great job of just executing in Week 1."

Mahomes’ rapport with the two players brought in to help replace Hill was instant as well. Former Pittsburgh Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster produced six catches for 79 yards (all in the first half) in his Chiefs debut, while ex-Green Bay Packer Marques Valdes-Scantling hauled in all four of his targets for 44 yards.

Six Kansas City players finished with at least three receptions on a day when Mahomes emphasised spreading the ball around, though star tight end Travis Kelce unsurprisingly was the focal point with 121 yards and a touchdown on eight catches.

"With the amount of tight ends, running backs and receivers that we have, it’s going to be everyone,” Mahomes remarked. "It’s going to be a lot of guys catching passes. It’s going to be running the football, it’s going to be throwing the football. It’s going to be the short game. It’s going to be the deep passes.

"I think that makes this a hard offence to stop."

The first week of the 2022 NFL season is here, with all the possibilities a new campaign brings.

Things kicked off on Thursday with the Buffalo Bills beating the Los Angeles Rams 31-10 thanks to a starring role from quarterback Josh Allen, who threw three touchdowns against the defending champions.

There are even more enticing games to look forward to over the weekend, with last season's Super Bowl runners up the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, Patrick Mahomes and the much-fancied Kansas City Chiefs facing Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, and it will be Aaron Rodgers v Kirk Cousins as the Green Bay Packers go to the Minnesota Vikings.

Stats Perform dives head first into Opta data to preview those games and more of the opening weekend of NFL action.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have won their last three games against the Steelers (27-17 in December 2020, 24-10 and 41-10 last season). It is the Bengals' longest winning streak versus the Steelers since they won six consecutive games from 1988 through 1990.

Mitch Trubisky will be the first quarterback other than Ben Roethlisberger to start a season opener for the Steelers since Dennis Dixon in 2010 (Roethlisberger was suspended). Trubisky is 1-2 in season openers, losing to the Packers twice and beating the Detroit Lions (all when he was with the Chicago Bears).

The Bengals played a league-high seven games decided by exactly three points during the 2021 regular season (won three, lost four), the highest single-season total by an NFL team since the 2012 Steelers (seven). Three of Cincinnati's four postseason games were also decided by exactly three points, including the 23-20 Super Bowl loss to the Rams.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed 67 of 85 passes for 971 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his final two games in the 2021 regular season (Week 16 against the Ravens, Week 17 against the Chiefs). Burrow's passing yardage is the second-highest two-game total by one player in NFL history, trailing only Dak Prescott's 974 passing yards over a two-game span in 2020.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs have won their division in six consecutive seasons, which is three more than the next longest active streak (Green Bay). Only two teams in NFL history have had longer streaks (New England - 11, 2009-2019 and LA Rams - seven, 1973-1979).

Patrick Mahomes has won 50 of his 63 career starts as Kansas City's quarterback. The only QB in the Super Bowl era to reach 50 wins in fewer career starts than Mahomes was Kenny Stabler, who earned his 50th win in his 62nd start.

Arizona scored 30 or more points in nine different games in 2022, tied for the most in a single season in team history. Since a 56-14 win over the Vikings in Week 4 of 1963, the Cardinals have gone 903 games without scoring 50 points, which is the longest streak in NFL history (Broncos, 761 straight games from 1963-2013).

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will not want to be upstaged by Mahomes, and is the only player in NFL history to have at least 70 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in the first three seasons of his NFL career.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

In their 22 road games against the Vikings this century, Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in 10 of them. That is tied for most 30-point games by an NFL team at a single opponent in that time with the Patriots at the Bills.

No NFL head coach has won more games over his first three NFL seasons than Matt LaFleur (39; George Seifert had 38). A win Sunday would make LaFleur the third coach in NFL history with 40 wins through 50 career games as head coach, joining Paul Brown (41) and Chuck Knox (40).

Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 3500 yards and 25 TDs in seven consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the NFL. He is the fifth QB in NFL history to have more than five straight, joining Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady.

Since becoming Green Bay's starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 169 TDs against division opponents, compared to 25 interceptions. The Vikings have a total of 121 passing touchdowns and 73 interceptions against the NFC North in that span.

Elsewhere...

When Carolina host Cleveland, with Baker Mayfield starting for the Panthers and Myles Garrett starting for the Browns, they will become the second pair of number one overall draft picks for the same team to go on to play against one another. The others were Jeff George and Steve Emtman in 1995.

The Eagles head to the Lions, with no team targeting their receivers less frequently than Philadelphia last season (239 targets), which led to the acquisition of A.J. Brown. The fourth-year WR has scored a TD on 13.0 percent of his career catches, third-highest rate among active players (min. 150 receptions).

The New Orleans Saints will need to beware of Foye Oluokun, who led the NFL last season with 192 total tackles, becoming the first Atlanta Falcon to lead the league in that category since Jessie Tuggle in 1995 (152). Oluokun's 192 total tackles were the most in a season by an NFL player since Chris Spielman had 195 in 1994 for the Lions.

Tom Brady is back for Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a very brief retirement as they travel to the Dallas Cowboys. The 45-year-old's last two seasons mark the first time in NFL history a QB has had 40 or more TD passes and a passer rating of 100.0 or better in back-to-back seasons.

The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

It seemed on a frenzied January night in Kansas City as though the AFC title would be decided by the toss of a coin.

The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries, coming up the field one last time to beat the Buffalo Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. were not to make the Super Bowl.

That the Chiefs were stunned by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game said a great deal for the strength in depth of the conference.

And that has been ratcheted up to another level over the course of the offseason, with Russell Wilson and Davante Adams among the notable names traded into the AFC.

The NFC may still have the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are no shortage of contenders here – including as many as four in one wild division out west.

The favourites

The Chiefs and the Bills would both have been hugely disheartened by the manner in which their seasons ended. Kansas City had the fortune that deserted Buffalo but were unable to make the most of their reprieve against the Bengals.

But that will merely make Mahomes and Josh Allen two of the more motivated superstars heading into the new season.

Mahomes is now without Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs' offensive line went from strength to strength as last season wore on, ranking third in pass protection win percentage by the year's end.

Meanwhile, Allen showed in that playoff blockbuster he can be every bit a match for Mahomes at his best. He threw nine touchdown passes across his two playoff games; no player had previously thrown more than seven while playing two games or fewer in a single postseason.

Allen will hope not to get the chance to better that record, this year targeting a run that goes far beyond the Divisional Round.

In the mix

The Bengals of course have to be considered after pushing the Los Angeles Rams all the way, while the Tennessee Titans actually matched the Chiefs for the best regular season record in the AFC despite Derrick Henry being limited to eight games, though the trade of receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles may restrict their ceiling on offense and ability to compete this year.

Deshaun Watson's suspension will give the Cleveland Browns work to do just to make the playoffs, but they may well be a serious threat if they get there.

A conference packed with quarterback talent also includes former MVP Lamar Jackson, who is fit again and looking to set the Baltimore Ravens back on course after a difficult 2021 in which they finished bottom of the AFC North.

But if the Chiefs are the team to beat, perhaps one of their division rivals can cause an upset. Each of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders have reasons to be optimistic.

Four contenders in the wild, wild AFC West

The Chiefs have won the AFC West six years in a row, but there is no guarantee that will become seven. The scale of the challenge before Kansas City represents a big boost to their AFC rivals – and to the neutrals, licking their lips at a must-watch season-long tussle.

Justin Herbert has long looked like making the Chargers contenders, with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history helping his offense finish fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747) last season. Crucially, the Chargers have added defensive help in the form of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson now, too.

Yet their offseason work perhaps pales next to that of the Broncos and the Raiders.

Wilson left the Seattle Seahawks for Denver, who promptly handed him a huge contract, clearly feeling he and Nathaniel Hackett can be the QB-coach combo they have been missing to return them to the postseason.

Support for that belief comes from Wilson's performance in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE), which measures a signal-caller's performance in expected passing situations against the league average. Despite playing only 14 games on a Seahawks team that finished in the NFC West cellar, Wilson was still 13th in EVE, just behind Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, Adams has reunited with former Fresno State team-mate Derek Carr on the Raiders, with Stats Perform's positional rankings subsequently considering Las Vegas to have the most talented skill players in the NFL.

The Chiefs will undoubtedly now be made to work for the division after years of dominance. 

Lamar out to right last year's wrongs

With half of the conference potentially in contention for a Super Bowl run, there is perhaps no true sleeper pick, but the Ravens will expect to go from worst to first in their division.

Much will depend on a return to form for dual-threat superstar Jackson.

Baltimore were firmly on course for the playoffs at the time of the ankle injury that kept Jackson out of the run-in in 2021, collapsing thereafter. However, it had already been by far the QB's worst season as a regular starter.

After 3,127 passing yards and 36 passing TDs and 1,206 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in his MVP season of 2019, Jackson had regressed slightly in 2020 and struggled further last year both through the air and on the ground.

In 12 games, Jackson threw just 16 TDs to 13 interceptions, while his 767 rushing yards saw him finish second among QBs to Jalen Hurts – a category he had dominated in the previous two campaigns.

Everything the Ravens do when they are good goes through Jackson, so his performance level will make or break their season.

Can Tua turn his fortunes around?

With the wealth of talent at the top of the AFC, there must also be some dregs at the bottom. The Miami Dolphins might fear they belong instead to that category.

The Dolphins made their own big move this offseason, taking elite receiver Hill out of the AFC West to give Tua Tagovailoa little excuse in his third season.

Hill got open on 82.7 per cent of his targets last season, with those skills of separation sure to come in useful when attempting to link up with a passer in Tagovailoa who threw to an open target just 73.8 per cent of the time.

The Dolphins are not expecting Tagovailoa to be Mahomes, but they need him to be much better than he has been thus far for this project to work.

The AFC West has been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs in recent seasons, with six division titles in succession.

In fact, if the Chiefs can extend that streak to seven, they will tie each of the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on 15 division titles.

Unfortunately for those in Kansas City, their rivals appear especially determined to ensure this year is different.

No division has prompted as much intrigue during the offseason as the AFC West, which has appeared at the centre of numerous big trades as its pretenders attempt to become contenders.

So hard to split is the division that Stats Perform has not even attempted to try – instead explaining what needs to happen for each of these teams in turn to be successful...

Kansas City Chiefs

After topping the AFC West in six straight seasons, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Chiefs can be toppled in 2022: Patrick Mahomes is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career, Tyreek Hill is gone, and the competition in the division is intense.

Yet those are also three reasons why Mahomes will be determined to lead the Chiefs to another strong year.

One of the game's leading lights will hope the 2021 season, with its 3-4 start and hugely disappointing finish in the AFC Championship Game, does not live long in the memory, but his attempts to move on swiftly could easily be hampered by the departure of WR1 Hill to the Miami Dolphins.

However, tight end Travis Kelce – the career leader in Mahomes targets (540), completions (383) and passing yards (4,960) – remains in Kansas City, and the quarterback has the ability to make a partnership work with any receiver.

Mahomes just needs time, and that is what he can expect to get behind one of the best offensive lines in the game.

The Chiefs rebuilt their O-line last year, and they ranked third in the NFL in pass protection win percentage (80.16) in 2021. Crucially, that unit improved as the season went on; the six games in which Mahomes faced the most pressures were all before the Week 12 bye.

Mahomes' pass completion rate of 77.4 per cent when not pressured ranked second among QBs with 100 or more attempts last season; this dropped to 56.7 per cent when pressured – only marginally above the league average in such scenarios (56.6).

Widely considered the most talented passer of his generation, the Chiefs have focused on protecting Mahomes rather than worrying about who he is throwing to, and that should be a safe bet despite his postseason wobble.

Las Vegas Raiders

As one elite receiver leaves the AFC West in Hill, another arrives. Davante Adams has quit the Green Bay Packers to bring his star power to Vegas.

Since his rookie season, Adams ranks fifth in the NFL for catches (669), sixth for receiving yards (8,121) and second for receiving touchdowns (73), although he has spent his entire career playing with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Now, Adams will be paired with zero-time MVP Derek Carr, who threw for 23 TDs and 14 interceptions last year, ranking 24th in touchdown percentage (3.7). Rodgers, by comparison, threw for 37 scores and four picks, with his 7.0 TD percentage the best in the league.

Yet Carr will surely benefit from having Adams to throw to. He saw 25 passes dropped in 2021 – tied for the third-most in the NFL – and a solid completion percentage of 68.4 could have been better, as his expected completion percentage of 74.5 trailed only Mahomes (75.9).

Carr is clearly an accurate passer; he just needs a little help turning this talent into tangible rewards.

Adams is the ideal man to do that, with the duo teaming up previously for two years at Fresno State, in which time the receiver's 38 TDs led the FBS by some distance.

Last year, Adams – who dropped a career-low one pass, just 0.6 per cent of his targets – added 633 yards after the catch, fourth-most in the league, and led the way in recording a first down with 49.7 per cent of his targets.

He can have a transformative impact on a team who were already the Chiefs' nearest challengers in this division and will now be overseen by former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach.

Los Angeles Chargers

This division is so exciting not only because it contains four potentially great teams but because it contains four potentially great offenses.

For the Chargers, there are few doubts on that side of the ball. They have largely brought back the same offense that made Justin Herbert a star in 2021 with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history. Of course, the 17-game season helped in that regard, but only Tom Brady (5,316) outperformed Herbert (5,014) on the year.

As a result, the Chargers were fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747).

So, why did they miss out on the postseason?

Well, the Chargers had a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per game (360.1), and only two teams allowed more points across the season (459). That Herbert-powered offense ranked 23rd in time spent on the field, with the defense giving them too much to do in too little time.

There are reasons to believe that will change this year, though, with the acquisitions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson particularly notable for a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league for takeaways (21).

Only three players have had eight or more interceptions in a single season over the past two years; Jackson, one of those three, has done it twice.

No player has ever previously had eight or more picks in three straight seasons, but Jackson has shown no signs of slowing and could be exactly the type of superstar the Chargers need on defense to complement Herbert's efforts on offense and seize control of this division.

Denver Broncos

These might not be the four most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but they may well be the four most motivated.

Russell Wilson undoubtedly has a point to prove after ending a 10-year stint with the Seattle Seahawks that went downhill fast in its final 18 months. In early MVP contention after a 5-0 start to the 2020 season, Wilson went 13-12 over the rest of his Seahawks career.

He last year missed the postseason for only the second time and, according to Seattle, pushed for a trade. "I didn't initiate it," was Wilson's reply. "It was definitely mutual."

Regardless, Wilson will find a very receptive audience in Denver, where Broncos fans were desperate to see an end to the QB merry-go-round that had them in a spin for six straight years after Peyton Manning's farewell Super Bowl 50 win. They have had 10 different starters under center since 2016, second only to Washington (11).

In that time outside the title picture, though, the Broncos have rebuilt the rest of the roster, waiting for the sort of QB-coach combo they now have in Wilson and former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett.

Denver allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game last season (326.1) and the third-fewest points (322); on offense, a better QB than Teddy Bridgewater would have made more use of playing behind an O-line that ranked eighth in pass protection win percentage (78.64).

With personnel changes at the two most important positions, the Broncos can expect to be much, much better than 19th for yards per game (330.5) and joint-23rd for total points (335).

That improvement should take the Broncos from nowhere to somewhere, even in this AFC West.

The NFL is all about evolution. The constant fight to gain a decisive advantage, in a league where those who can adapt fastest are kings, consistently leads to sweeping changes every offseason.

While it is the raft of head coaching changes that dominate the headlines when the regular season gives way to 'Black Monday', it is the more granular alterations to a team's approach that can often have the greatest influence on a franchise's fortunes in a given season.

Switches in scheme or a diversion away from a team's long-standing tendencies are regularly brought on by the arrival of a new coaching staff or a change in coordinator, but personnel moves also frequently dictate the approach coaches settle on as they plot a path towards success.

Schematic decisions that may not cause much of a league-wide stir can end up having a huge influence on the outcome of a season, and there are no shortage of such changes that figure to have a significant bearing on the race for the playoffs in 2022.

Here, with the help of its advanced data, Stats Perform looks at five switches in scheme or tendencies that could play a defining role in the coming campaign.

Can McDaniel transform Tua?

The Miami Dolphins' second-half surge in 2021 was tied to their reliance on the run-pass option as they tailored their offense to Tua Tagovailoa's strengths.

Not only were the Dolphins prolific in going to the RPO, they were very effective when they called them.

Miami called a RPO on 12.27 per cent of their pass attempts, the league average was 3.5 per cent. They averaged 7.25 yards per play on RPOs, comfortably above the league average of 5.85.

Given their success on those plays and Tagovailoa's comfort in executing them, RPOs will still be a part of the Miami attack in 2022.

But the usage numbers are unlikely to be as high under new head coach Mike McDaniel, who brings his take on the Kyle Shanahan offense to Miami afer serving as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator last year.

McDaniel will likely reduce the number of straight dropback pass plays for Tagovailoa. The Dolphins ran them on 34 per cent of passes last year, below the league average of 36.1 per cent but well above the 2021 49ers, who used such plays only 22.9 per cent of the time while utilising the quick game on 40.97 per cent of passes compared to 25.97 per cent for the Dolphins.

The arrival of McDaniel will likely tip the balance towards the quick game for Miami in 2022 as he looks to give Tagovailoa easy buttons in the same way Shanahan did for Jimmy Garoppolo, getting the ball into the hands of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill to do damage after the catch.

McDaniel, who was San Francisco's run-game coordinator prior to his promotion last year, will undoubtedly lean on Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and a ground attack certain to be heavily based around inside and outside zone runs to take the burden off Tagovailoa and set up play-action.

Miami used play-action on 14.57 per cent of their passes in 2021, above the average of 12.7 per cent but still trailing the 49ers (15.89 per cent). With Tagovailoa's ability to hit Hill and Waddle downfield with consistent accuracy in question, look for McDaniel to put significant stress on defenses by attracting linebackers up to the line of scrimmage with play-action and then running Hill and Waddle cross-field on horizontal routes at the intermediate levels that are well within his quarterback's range.

Under Shanahan, McDaniel has had an education into scheming his weapons into space, and he should thrive at doing so when running an offense himself for the first time. Tagovailoa's challenge will be to prove he can deliver and make the most of the advantageous situations in which his coach will put him. Fail, and the Dolphins may soon be searching for a new franchise quarterback.

More deep balls and diversity for Niners

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Shanahan has insisted nothing in his playbook has changed as he enters the season with a new starting quarterback, and the 49ers head coach will unexpectedly have the same top two signal-callers as he did last season.

It is the order that has flipped, with Jimmy Garoppolo agreeing a reworked contract for 2022 to be Trey Lance's backup. Regardless of what Shanahan says, the 49ers' approach is likely to be different with Lance under center.

Lance averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt across his 10 full quarters of action last season (he started two games and played the second half when Garoppolo was injured in Week 4), the second-most among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

On the other end of the scale, Garoppolo's 7.38 air yards per attempt were well below the league average of 7.99. Garoppolo attempted just 26 passes of 21 or more air yards the entire season, while 11 of Lance's 70 passes were of that distance.

The scheme isn't changing, but the tendencies certainly will. Lance will be more aggressive and attack downfield more often, likely leading to explosive splash plays that are not necessarily reliant on receivers creating yardage after the catch.

Though the plays may have already been in Shanahan's playbook, there is certain to be more of an emphasis on the threat of the quarterback run with Lance at the helm.

Just 2.62 per cent of the 49ers' run plays came on the zone-read last year, below the league average of 4.2. That number should increase, as should San Francisco's usage of the RPO game, which the Niners used on only 1.09 per cent of pass plays last year but averaged 8.43 yards per play when they did.

With Lance and the running back both threats to run on such plays, defenses will have to account for three possibilites when defending RPOs against the 49ers, exemplifying how much more diverse their offense can become with the 2021 third overall pick under center.

San Francisco's attack will be even more varied and more aggressive in 2022, but it is also likely to be more volatile due to Lance's inferior precision to Garoppolo on the intermediate passes that set up the yards after catch opportunities on which the 49ers have done such damage in recent years. How that volatility impacts the win-loss column will determine whether Garoppolo gets on the field at any point in the final year of his contract.

Vikings look to the 3-4

The Vikings swapped out basically everything this offseason. New general manager, new head coach – who will also be the offensive play-caller – and new defensive coordinator.

Though head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense will be different to the one run by former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the systems are similar enough that Kirk Cousins and Co. are unlikely to endure too much pain in acclimating to the new scheme.

The biggest adjustments will come on the defensive side of the ball, which will be run by Ed Donatell, who spent the last three seasons coordinating Vic Fangio's defense for the Denver Broncos.

The Fangio defense has become the en vogue scheme in the NFL as acolytes such as Brandon Staley have put their spin on it and the two-high safety shells that have been a hallmark of the system have helped limit explosive plays and level the playing field a little in an offense-dominated league.

Denver played Cover 1 robber – which is where a safety from a two-high look drops down into the box to disrupt in-breaking routes in the congested area – as the defense's primary coverage in 2021. The Broncos ran Cover 1 robber 41.87 per cent of the time in a season where the league average was 14.17 per cent.

The Vikings were more varied but still used Cover 1 robber more than any other coverage, relying on it for 21.81 per cent of defensive snaps.

Whether Donatell uses that coverage to the same extent in Minnesota remains to be seen, but the transition for the Vikings' secondary may be a smooth one given how often they ultilised the same shell under Mike Zimmer. 

The most significant change to the defense comes up front, with the Vikings switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

Though defensive fronts are much more hybrid in the modern NFL, the tenets of the 3-4 front are the same. The three-man line is tasked with holding ground and filling up gaps at the point of attack, offering more space to the four linebackers to take better pursuit angles against the run and opening a wide menu of blitz packages against the pass. 

Minnesota's two starting outside linebackers are de-facto edge rushers and both players who should each theoretically thrive in that role. Za'Darius Smith has significant experience with the 3-4 from his time with the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers while the athletic profile of Danielle Hunter – whose 60.5 sacks since 2015 are tied for the seventh-most in the NFL – makes him an ideal candidate to excel as a stand-up pass rusher.

Possessing two impressive space-eating interior defenders in Harrison Phillips and Damon Harrison and an inside linebacker in Eric Kendricks who had five sacks last year, the Vikings have the personnel to continue to succeed rushing the passer despite the change in front. They were 10th in pass rush win rate in 2021, had the sixth-most pressures (291) and the second-most sacks (51).

Despite their joy in getting after the quarterback, the Vikings were 26th in yards per play allowed (5.66), with their struggles tied to a run defense that allowed 51 runs of at least 10 yards. Only 12 teams allowed more. If the switch to the 3-4 helps the Vikings grow more stout against the ground game, then a team with the talent on both sides of the ball to contend for the playoffs will be in a much better position to make noise as a potential Wild Card team.

The Raiders' overdue defensive switch

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new offensive system after hiring Josh McDaniels as their head coach and will also have the benefit of expanded firepower following the blockbuster trade for All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. 

Las Vegas will have the personnel and the offensive scheme to go blow for blow with their high-powered rivals in the AFC West.

The question is whether their defense can do enough to contain their divisional foes, and its success in doing so likely rests on how the Raiders adapt to new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

In 2021, the Raiders only gave up 5.2 yards per play, the ninth-fewest in the NFL; however, former coordinator Gus Bradley's steadfast commitment to single-high Cover 3 defenses saw Las Vegas shredded for 888 net yards in a pair of defeats to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Las Vegas played Cover 3 zone on an incredible 65.79 per cent of snaps last season. The league average was 23.75 per cent.

In his final year as the New York Giants' defensive coordinator, Graham relied heavily on Cover 3, which the Giants used 45.58 per cent of the time. 

But Graham used a wider range of coverages more regularly than his predecessor. The Giants played Cover 1 robber, Cover 2 and Tampa 2 at a rate above the league average.

The Raiders' secondary talent is questionable, but Graham is a coordinator who predominantly plays the coverage with which they are most familiar but is more flexible than Bradley. As such, the transition to Graham should be a relatively smooth one for the Raiders' defensive backfield; however, it will be their ability to excel in a defense that promises to be much more multiple than it was a year ago that determines whether this unit improves.

Las Vegas' defense did not embrace the two-high revolution in 2021. With Graham running a unit that will be tasked with stopping three explosive downfield passers in Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson in the AFC West, such shells will almost certainly become a bigger part of the Raiders' gameplan. How their defenders adapt to playing those coverages more frequently will have a huge bearing on the Raiders' success in competing for top spot in a loaded division.

Will 'Big Red' turn to the run?

As the Raiders perhaps shift towards a more two-high heavy world, the Chiefs' hopes of regaining the Lombardi Trophy will in part be tied to their proficiency in attacking such defenses.

The Chiefs' often exaggerated struggles against two-high coverage shells dominated much of the discussion in the first half of last season as defenses looked for a way to take away the shot play to Tyreek Hill.

By the end of the year, the Chiefs appeared to have solved the riddle and averaged 33.2 points per game over the final six weeks of the regular season.

Yet with Hill gone, the Kansas City offense has lost the reason many opponents not named the Raiders defended them with such coverages.

Defenses are unlikely to suddenly move away from the two-high looks when playing Kansas City now Hill is a Miami Dolphin, and teams will continue to dare Mahomes to take what he is given underneath and attempt to limit his opportunities to go downfield to the deep threats the Chiefs do have, namely Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman.

Mahomes will need to be patient and connect with tight end Travis Kelce and other receivers who should excel attacking the underneath areas such as Juju Smith-Schuster and rookie second-round pick Skyy Moore.

But the Chiefs may also look to run the ball more to get defenses out of those coverages and draw more defenders into the box, opening the deep areas of the field for Mahomes to attack.

Kansas City ran the ball on only 31.8 per cent of offensive snaps last season, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they would succeed if they did so more often.

The Chiefs ranked first in run block win rate in 2021 – their exploits in that regard allowing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to average 3.08 yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-most among running backs with at least 100 attempts – and Kansas City were seventh in yards per play on the ground (4.54). Rookie undrafted free agent Isaiah Pacheco has caught the eye in training camp and could blossom into a dynamic threat out of the backfield.

It is tough to make the case for taking the ball out of Mahomes' hands. However, as defenses continue to present him with more varied and complex looks, there is a need for a greater balance in the Chiefs' offense.

Between using a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire and building an O-line that can produce dominant run-blocking, the Chiefs have spent significant resources on players with the potential to help them achieve that balance by committing to what has been an efficient run game. A modest shift in their offensive tendencies could be the key to the Chiefs getting back to the top of the pile despite the loss of one the league's most fearsome playmakers.