JuJu Smith-Schuster is leaving the Pittsburgh Steelers to join the Kansas City Chiefs, the wide receiver appeared to confirm.

The 25-year-old was expected to leave the Steelers and used his official Twitter account to post a goodbye message to the fans, before adding in a later post: "#ChiefsKingdom Let's Go!"

Smith-Schuster will receive a one-year, $10.75M deal in Kansas, according to reports.

He spent five years in Pittsburgh after being drafted from the University of Southern California, playing 63 games and making just one touchdown, which came against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 of last season.

Smith-Schuster posted a screenshot on Twitter that read: "To all of Steelers Nation. Thank you for taking me in and making me a part of the family from the moment that I was drafted. You all took me in so quickly, and I really needed it.

"I was a wide-eyed 20-year-old who was sent to the east coast away from my family for the first time in my life, and you made me feel right at home, despite all of the loneliness I should have felt.

"These have been the best five years in my life. I owe so much to the fans who embraced me and who made playing on Sundays in Pittsburgh so special.

"It was an honor to wear the black and gold for you all! I love you! JuJu."

The NFL offseason is as exciting as it has ever been in 2022 – and several of the biggest moves have centred on the AFC West.

This was already one of the deepest divisions in football, headlined by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs but also featuring the 2021 fifth seed Las Vegas Raiders and gunslinging Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in its supporting cast.

But the lineup for next season promises to be even more enticing.

The Raiders have worked to make sure they have not been left behind by the big-spending Chargers, while the Denver Broncos have also made a significant move to climb into contention.

In fact, over the past two weeks, the Chiefs have perhaps been among the big losers – watching on while the rest of their division have been getting busy...

March 8: Russell Wilson (Seahawks to Broncos)

The NFC West was previously the standard-bearer for hugely competitive divisions, but the power shifted as its fourth-placed Seattle Seahawks traded superstar quarterback Wilson to the AFC West's fourth-placed Broncos. With Aaron Rodgers staying with the Green Bay Packers, when a move to Denver had been mooted, a big play for Wilson was vital if the Broncos were to make up a significant gap. The Super Bowl XLVIII champion has ranked fourth for both pass yards per attempt (7.83) and touchdown percentage (6.2) across his NFL career – a significant upgrade on the Broncos' 2021 QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.

March 10: Khalil Mack (Bears to Chargers)

With Herbert running the offense, the Chargers have moved to improve the other side of the ball – first by trading for edge rusher Mack. A second-round pick in this year's draft was the primary compensation for a six-time Pro Bowler, immediately boosting a unit that ranked 23rd in total defense (360.1 yards per game) and 30th in run defense (138.9) last year. Mack struggled with injuries in his final year with the Chicago Bears but comes in opposite Joey Bosa, who ranks third in the NFL for QB pressures (389) and sixth for sacks (58) since his 2016 debut; Mack is fourth (388) and seventh (57.5) over that same period.

March 14: J.C. Jackson (free agent to Chargers)

As well as draft collateral, the Chargers had salary cap to work with and sent a large chunk of it to cornerback Jackson, allowed to leave by the New England Patriots. Jackson had certainly earned his pay day, leading the NFL in interceptions (25) since debuting in New England in 2018. This playmaking ability was also illustrated by the 26-year-old giving up big plays on only 18.9 per cent of his targets last season, the eighth-best rate among corners with at least 50 targets.

March 15: Randy Gregory (free agent to Broncos)

The Chargers' edge-rushing duo will take some beating, but the Broncos upgraded in that position, too, by giving up to $70million to Gregory, who had been set to re-sign with the Dallas Cowboys. Gregory, who missed almost three full seasons due to violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy, had finally established himself as a starter in 2021 with career highs in sacks (six) and QB hits (17) playing opposite DeMarcus Lawrence. The 29-year-old linebacker will now be paired with Bradley Chubb, despite a return to Denver for Von Miller being floated earlier in the month.

March 16: Chandler Jones (free agent to Raiders)

Having seen their division rivals make big moves, the Raiders responded with a $51m offer to Jones, while trading Yannick Ngakoue to the Indianapolis Colts for corner Rock Ya-Sin. Ngakoue had 10 sacks and forced two fumbles in his sole season in Las Vegas, but Jones (10.5 and six) topped both figures for the Arizona Cardinals in 2021. In fact, since Jones came into the league with the Patriots in 2012, he leads both categories, with 107.5 sacks and 33 fumbles forced. Although now 32, he shows few signs of slowing.

March 17: Davante Adams (Packers to Raiders)

The most stunning move of the lot followed on Thursday, when Adams' refusal to play for the Packers on the franchise tag led to his trade to the Raiders for a first and a second-round pick in 2022 (22 and 53 overall). The deal suddenly gives Raiders QB Derek Carr arguably the best offensive weapon in the NFL – and one he can go to time and time again, given Adams was targeted on a league-leading 35.4 per cent of his routes in 2021, which yielded career highs in catches (123) and receiving yards (1,553). Fellow wideout Hunter Renfrow may now see less of the ball than in his first 1,000-yard season (1,038), but he should also benefit from the attention Adams inevitably draws. The Raiders already ranked sixth in passing offense (268.6 yards per game).

The Kansas City Chiefs are placing the franchise tag on left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Monday that the Chiefs will not allow Brown to test free agency.

The deadline to franchise tag prospective free agents, tying them to a one-year franchise tender with their current team, is on Tuesday.

Brown becomes the first known unrestricted free agent to be tagged, following a strong first season with the Chiefs.

The Chiefs gave up last year's first-round pick as part of a package to land Brown in a deal with the Baltimore Ravens.

Brown had expressed unhappiness at being deployed as a right tackle during his time in Baltimore, stating emphatically that, in his mind, he was best placed on the left.

He provided evidence to back up those claims in 2021, allowing a pressure rate of 7.4 per cent. The average for left tackles was 9.4.

Stats Perform data had Brown losing just 35 of his 300 pass protection one-on-ones last season, while he came off worst on seven of the 28 stunts he faced.

That gave Brown a stunt-adjusted pass protection win rate of 88.19 per cent, sixth among tackles with at least 200 one-on-ones.

Brown's success, which saw him named to the Pro Bowl for a third straight season, and that of the Chiefs' offensive line rebuild did not inspire Kansas City to Super Bowl glory, as they suffered a shock defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

Tyrann Mathieu is hopeful he can re-sign with the Kansas City Chiefs following their agonising AFC Championship defeat by the Cincinnati Bengals.

The safety is now a free agent following the expiration of his contract after three years at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs were denied a third successive Super Bowl appearance on Sunday after suffering a 27-24 overtime defeat against the Bengals, despite leading 21-3 during the second quarter.

That signalled the end of Mathieu's stint in Missouri, where both parties failed to agree on extending his contract ahead of the 2021 season.

Despite the disappointment, the 29-year-old applauded the efforts of his team-mates and hopes a deal for him to remain with the franchise can be struck.

"I hope so," he said. "Ever since I came here, I just try to be the right kind of team-mate; I try to play my part. 

"It's always that feeling that you could make more plays for your team, but I'm hoping it works out. I don't have any control over that. 

"I feel like everything that is within my control – I tried my best to handle it and do it with a smile. I love this team; I love this locker room. There are a lot of coaches I have great relationships with. I am hoping.

"We still feel like we are the best team in the NFL. The best team doesn't always win; it's the team that plays well and makes the plays that day. 

"I am just extremely proud to come to work with these guys."

It's not how you start, it's how you finish. The old adage rang true for the victorious defenses on Conference Championship weekend.

A stunning upset pulled off by the Cincinnati Bengals appeared extremely unlikely when they fell 21-3 behind to the Kansas City Chiefs.

But the Chiefs scored just three points across the second half and overtime, with Patrick Mahomes intercepted twice as the Bengals fought back to claim an improbable 27-24 win.

Similarly, the Los Angeles Rams looked to be on the ropes at 17-7 down to the San Francisco 49ers when Jimmy Garoppolo hit George Kittle for a 16-yard touchdown late in the third quarter.

Yet the Rams outscored the Niners 13-0 in the fourth, Garoppolo and the San Francisco attack collapsing when the pressure was at its highest.

So how did both the Bengals and the Rams stymie their opponents when it mattered most and punch their tickets to Super Bowl LVI?

The name's Hubbard, Sam Hubbard

Arguably as important to stopping Mahomes through the air was the move the Bengals made to prevent him from doing damage with his legs.

The Bengals deployed defensive end Sam Hubbard as a de-facto spy of Mahomes, protecting against him rolling out and making throws on the move, as he did twice for touchdowns in the first half, or picking up yardage on the ground.

That meant relying on their coverage to hold up while sending only three-man rushes up front. The Bengals rushed three on 23.9 per cent of their defensive snaps, and the results speak for themselves.

Mahomes attempted just six passes on the move and had five scrambles for an average of just one yard per carry. In other words, when there was not a clear option for Mahomes when operating from the pocket, the possibility to escape and extend the play was taken away.

Travis Kelce had 10 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown while Tyreek Hill registered seven catches for 78 yards and a score. However, Hill did not have a catch after the first half and Kelce only had one across that second half and overtime that went for double-digit yardage, the Bengals' ploy of sporadically bracketing both working perfectly.

The combination of Hubbard's deployment in an unfamiliar role and the attention paid to both Kelce and Hill led to the sight of a quarterback who was unstoppable in the Divisional Round running backwards as the pocket collapsed in a vain effort to produce explosive plays that were not there.

Mahomes had done an excellent job down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs of being patient and taking what the defense gave him. In the second half against Cincinnati, the Bengals afforded him no options, and that patience ran out.

Rams give no room to run

The Rams did not need to lure Garoppolo into the bad decision, as Los Angeles knew that, with enough pressure on the much-maligned 49ers quarterback, a mistake is always on the horizon.

Los Angeles only pressured Garoppolo 12 times, but the pass rush came at the ideal time in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter as Aaron Donald and Co. took advantage of a banged-up offensive line when it mattered most.

The level of joy the Rams enjoyed late on was in part a result of their success in defending the run.

With the scoreboard turning rapidly in Los Angeles' favour, San Francisco became one-dimensional having been consistently stymied by the Rams' run defense.

The often dominant 49ers running game was held to 2.5 yards per carry, putting the emphasis on Garoppolo and his O-Line to deliver.

Niners tight end Kittle explained San Francisco's struggles running the ball were down to the Rams employing a new wrinkle in blitzing the A and B gaps when the 49ers went in motion, leading to stacked boxes.

As Kittle put it: "It's hard to run the ball when there are nine guys in the box."

After erasing the Niners' 10-point lead, the Rams' defense could go in attack mode with the ground game shut down and no reason to fear the opposing quarterback.

Given the struggles of the Bengals' offensive line, a similar approach could well be used in the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes says he has an even greater appreciation for the NFL career of Tom Brady after the Kansas City Chiefs lost in the playoffs.

The Chiefs were shocked 27-24 by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Despite having star quarterback Mahomes and a dominant offense, the Chiefs only have one Super Bowl title to show from their four straight championship game appearances.

Mahomes believes it shows how difficult it is to go all the way and puts the spectacular feat of Brady – soon expected to confirm his retirement – winning a record seven Super Bowl crowns into perspective.

"His career is one of a kind,'' Mahomes said, per ESPN, after the Bengals rallied from 18 points behind to record a shock win at Arrowhead Stadium. 

"That's why he's the GOAT. To win that many Super Bowls and win that many games, it's hard. 

"I understand that. The years that I've had, I've been close a lot. 

"I've only been there twice, and I've only won once. I understand it takes a special player, a special group of guys, special circumstances for that to happen.

"I'm just going to try to do whatever I can to get myself a chance every year to get in that game and to win it.''

Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also fell short in 2021, losing to the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round.

That was a result that extended a long streak of teams being unable to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

It has not been done since Brady and the New England Patriots won the title in back-to-back seasons in 2003 and 2004.

The Rams will meet the Bengals at SoFi Stadium on February 13.

Patrick Mahomes accepted responsibility after the Kansas City Chiefs suffered a dramatic 27-24 overtime defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

The Chiefs were heavy favourites coming into Sunday's game at Arrowhead Stadium and quickly built up a 21-3 advantage.

Despite a Bengals response, Kansas City were still 11 points clear when they had the ball on the Cincinnati one-yard line just before half-time.

But they misjudged the clock and failed to add to their advantage, as time expiring after a completed pass to Tyreek Hill meant they could not even kick a field goal.

The Bengals then rallied in the second half to move ahead 24-21 and while the Chiefs were able to get the game to overtime, it was Cincinnati who came out on top.

Just 34 yards, two first downs and an interception from Mahomes came from the first five Kansas City drives in the second half as the offense went completely flat, costing the hosts victory.

"When you're up 21-3 in a game, you can't lose it, and I put that on myself," Mahomes said.

"I was supposed to throw the ball away [in the play before halftime]. I got a little greedy there and tried to give it to Tyreek and get a touchdown, they had two people out there. 

"In the long run of things, it looks bad, but if we had another chance, I'd go for another play again.

"There was a few misreads here and there. There was guys that were open and I didn't hit at the right time or I passed up on something shorter that I wanted to get something deeper down the field. 

"When you're playing a good team and you don't hit what's there and you try to get a little bit more than what's necessary it kind of bites you in the butt, I guess you would say. 

"We were playing so well in the first half and in the second half, we were just off a tick and that's all it takes to lose a football game."

The Chiefs have been to four straight championship games with Mahomes as starter. Their two defeats, in this game and to the New England Patriots in 2018, both came in overtime.

Mahomes added: "A few plays here and there we could have four chances at the Super Bowl.

"You can't let this end what we have here, you have to make sure you continue to battle, continue to get better and try to find ways to win Super Bowls.''

Defeat cost the Chiefs a chance to reach a third straight Super Bowl.

Head coach Andy Reid was reluctant to blame star quarterback Mahomes, who was intercepted by B.J. Hill in the third quarter before throwing another pick to Vonn Bell in OT.

"Patrick's a great player, he was trying to make a play," he said when asked if Mahomes had pressed too much as the Chiefs started to lose their lead.

"I have got to do a better job at giving him things that he can make plays with. I can do a lot better in that area. 

"I could've given him other things to work with, better things, better plays to work with."

Of the Chiefs' mistake at the end of the first half, Reid added: "I was hoping we could get the ball in the end zone.

"I probably gave him the wrong play first of all. To start with, I could've given him something better than that, where the play was open in the end zone, and then we wouldn't have had to go through that. 

"I'll take responsibility for that one."

Mahomes completed 26 of 39 attempts and threw three touchdowns as well as his two picks.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes says that bowing out of the postseason with an overtime loss in the AFC Championship Game cannot be seen as a success.

The Chiefs, competing in their third consecutive AFC Championship Game, went down 30-27 in overtime to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

Mahomes was dominant early with three touchdown passes in the first half as they opened up a 21-3 second-quarter lead, finishing the game completing 26 of 39 attempts for 275 yards.

But the Chiefs, champions two years ago and runners-up last season, let slip their lead with Mahomes' overtime pass intercepted by Vonn Bell before Evan McPherson's game-winning field goal.

"The leaders on this team know this isn't our standard," Mahomes said at the post-game news conference. "We want to win the Super Bowl.

"Whenever you taste winning the Super Bowl, anything less than that is not success. It's definitely disappointing.

"Here, with this group of guys that we have, we expect to be in that game and win that game, and anything less than that is not success.

"We'll go back and look at all the things we did well, the adversity we battled through, the team we became at the end of the season and try to learn from the mistakes we made and try to be better next year.''

Mahomes threw 11 touchdown passes in the postseason but the Chiefs were undone in defense against the Bengals, conceding 55 points in their two losses to the AFC champions across the season.

"Unfortunately this is final and that's where we sit now," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said at the post-game news conference.

"Our players are disappointed obviously. They've put a lot of time and effort into this, putting themselves into this position for a Championship Game, I'm proud of that."

The Cincinnati Bengals reached their first Super Bowl since 1989 after a pulsating 27-24 overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

Patrick Mahomes had started in inspired form at Arrowhead Stadium, delivering three touchdown passes to put the Chiefs 21-3 ahead, but the Bengals roared back in stunning fashion to move 24-21 in front.

A Harrison Butker field goal with three seconds left took the game to overtime, yet Evan McPherson ensured a memorable win for the Bengals with a field goal of his own.  

They will face either the Los Angeles Rams or the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVI in a fortnight.

Mahomes wasted little time in stamping his authority on the game, picking out Tyreek Hill in the end zone for a 10-yard touchdown within the opening three minutes.

McPherson got the Bengals on the board with a field kick soon after, yet the Chiefs extended their advantage when Mahomes danced his way out of trouble to find Travis Kelce in the corner of the end zone.

The irrepressible Mahomes then found Mercole Hardman wide open for another touchdown, taking his total of pass touchdowns in this postseason to a record-equalling 11.

The Bengals, however, clawed their way back into the game when running back Samaje Perine raced 41 yards into the end zone.

McPherson reduced the deficit with another field goal, before B.J. Hill intercepted an uncharacteristically poor throw from Mahomes to give the Bengals an opportunity to draw level. They duly did courtesy of Ja'Marr Chase from Joe Burrow's lofted throw, with Trent Taylor grabbing the subsequent two-point conversion reception.

After McPherson and Butker exchanged field goals in the fourth quarter, the former sent another kick between the sticks following Vonn Bell's interception of Mahomes to seal one of the most remarkable comebacks in Championship Game history.

Joe Burrow heaped praise on the Cincinnati Bengals defense after Vonn Bell's interception set up their dramatic 27-24 overtime win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

The Bengals completed the equal biggest comeback win in Championship Game history, rallying from a 21-3 down in the second quarter after Patrick Mahomes' three touchdown passes.

But Cincinnati would not concede again to roar ahead 24-21 until Harrison Butker's field goal with three seconds left to send the game to overtime, as Burrow led the rally offensively, completing 23 of 38 attempts for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

The Chiefs won the vital coin flip for overtime, yet Bell's pick on a Mahomes' throw allowed the Bengals to gain possession, with Burrow driving them forward with Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon to set up McPherson's decisive kick.

As a result, the Bengals reached their first Super Bowl since 1989 with Burrow heaping praise on their defense.

"Our defense was unbelievable in the second half," Burrow told CBS after the game. "They had a great plan on defensive side against us. We struggled a little bit. I'm a little speechless right now."

The victory continues Cincinnati's dream postseason run, having overcome the top-seeded Tennessee Titans 19-16 and Las Vegas Raiders 26-19.

Burrow added: "We've been a second-half team all year. You don’t really want to be that way but that's how it's worked out.

"Our defense has really stepped up in the second half and on offense we made plays when we had to. I thought the offensive line was great. We started running the ball, it was a great overall team effort.

"Usually when you lose a coin flip to those guys, you're going home."

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor called his side a "special team" and reiterated that they were not done yet, ahead of the Super Bowl against either the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers.

"We've got a special team and we've overcome a lot of deficits this year," Taylor said. "We always believe in all three phases. Everyone stepped up and we're not done yet.

"[It's] special, nothing we'll ever forget. We're not done yet. Our fans say 'who dey?', we dem."

The Cincinnati Bengals reached their first Super Bowl since 1989 after a pulsating 27-24 overtime win against the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

Patrick Mahomes had started in inspired form at Arrowhead Stadium, delivering three touchdown passes to put the Chiefs 21-3 ahead, but the Bengals roared back in stunning fashion to move 24-21 in front.

A Harrison Butker field goal with three seconds left took the game to overtime, yet Evan McPherson ensured a memorable win for the Bengals with a field goal of his own.  

They will face either the Los Angeles Rams or the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVI in a fortnight.

Tyrann Mathieu is expected to play for the Kansas City Chiefs as they look to clinch a place in the Super Bowl for the third successive season.

Mathieu suffered a concussion in the Chiefs' thrilling 42-36 win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the playoffs last Sunday.

But multiple reports suggest the safety will feature for the Chiefs when they host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.

Mathieu led the Chiefs with three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, during the regular season.

His tally of 13 interceptions since joining the Chiefs in 2019 is tied for the second-most among safeties, trailing only Justin Simmons (14) of the Denver Broncos.

With Joe Burrow sacked nine times in the Bengals' win over the Tennessee Titans last week, the Chiefs will hope pressure on the quarterback can lead to turnover opportunities for the likes of Mathieu.

Though he has been accurate under pressure with a well-thrown ball percentage of 81.1, which is the best in the NFL (min. 100 attempts) in those circumstances, Burrow has produced nine pickable passes for his 143 attempts under duress.

His pickable pass percentage of 6.29 under pressure is inferior to the average of 5.53 per cent for quarterbacks with at least 100 such throws.

The Cincinnati Bengals will hope the NFL has no reason to fine Tyreek Hill for celebrating once Sunday's AFC Championship Game with the Kansas City Chiefs is in the books.

Hill was not flagged for flashing the peace sign at a collection of Buffalo Bills defenders as he left them for dead while scoring a 64-yard touchdown in the Chiefs' remarkable 42-36 victory in the Divisional Round last Sunday.

That score marked one of the five lead changes after the two-minute warning in a contest viewed as one of the greatest in the history of the NFL playoffs.

While the officials on the field at the time did not see fit to penalise Hill for taunting, it was revealed on Saturday he was fined over $10,000 by the league for his actions in the act of scoring.

Hill and the Chiefs are heavy favourites to see off the Bengals and progress to a third successive Super Bowl.

However, after holding the Tennessee Titans to 16 points in their Divisional Round triumph, Cincinnati will look to keep Hill in check.

The Bengals did just that in their Week 17 win over the Chiefs, holding him to six catches for 40 yards.

And Cincinnati safety Vonn Bell made it clear earlier this week that the Bengals are ready for the test posed by Kansas City's speed on offense.

"They've got speed. They've got [Mecole] Hardman and they've got [Byron] Pringle, they've got [Hill]," Bell said. "It brings a lot of problems because it stretches you vertically. [Because] you want to take away these vertical threats and everything underneath.

"You've got [Jerick] McKinnon, you got [Clyde Edwards-Helaire] back, you got Travis [Kelce] sitting underneath in the soft of the zone. It was just like, 'Man, everybody's back deep and he's just by himself.' You've got to respect the speed, because it's like a roadrunner, we call them, and they just keep on rolling.

"That's why this team is so dynamic. You got guys like Hardman and [Hill] that can line up anywhere, backfield, anywhere they could do punt returns and they can create explosives everywhere. It's a unique group that they have, and it's a challenge for sure. We rise up to it and we're ready to take it on for sure."

There wasn't much value in being the favourite in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

Three of the four underdogs, the Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, prevailed to progress to Conference Championship weekend.

An incredible overtime win over the Buffalo Bills saw the Kansas City Chiefs, the sole favourite to prevail, join them in moving one game away from the Super Bowl.

Despite a victory in a game many have already labelled as the best playoff game of all time, the Chiefs' position in the Super Bowl odds by Stats Perform's rest-of-season projection has gone down, with the Rams leapfrogging them and taking their spot as the team most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 13.

So how has a week of action in which the Chiefs were victorious flipped the odds against Kansas City?

Hollywood ending in store for LA?

Rest-of-season or, in this case, postseason projection, projects every future game to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. Rather than being a simulator of future games, the projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and QB efficiency versus expected – performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations – as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.

For the playoffs, the projection has been used to calculate each team's odds of winning a home game against every postseason team, with those predictions then used to forecast each franchise's chances of reaching and winning the Super Bowl.

Last week, prior to the Divisional games, the Chiefs were given a 27 per cent shot to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, just ahead of the Rams on 26.3 per cent.

Following their respective victories, the Chiefs are viewed as having a 37.84 per cent chance of taking the silverware back to Missouri. The more likely outcome, at least according to ROS, is that the trophy stays at SoFi Stadium with the Rams, whose odds of winning it for only the second time in franchise history have ballooned to 38.21.

It is not a huge margin between the two, but the change at the top is enough to raise eyebrows given how devastating the Chiefs were on offense in defeating the Bills.

But the Rams' position as the new Super Bowl favourite is more a reflection of the potential opponents, rather than a commentary on the merits of the respective teams.

Another nail-biter for the Chiefs

Kansas City already has experience of one nerve-shredding Super Bowl with an NFC West opponent, coming back from 20-10 down in the fourth quarter to beat the 49ers two years ago in Super Bowl LIV.

And ROS expects either a meeting with the Rams or a rematch with the Niners to be similarly tense.

The Chiefs would not be considered favourites in a home game with the Rams, Kansas City given just a 45.2 per cent chance to triumph.

That number improves significantly in a matchup with the 49ers, against whom the Chiefs have 58.2 per cent odds of winning a home game.

It is still not an overly decisive margin, however, and pales in comparison to the Rams' prospects of beating the alternative AFC representative, the Bengals.

Cincinnati would have just a 16.8 per cent shot of winning a road game with Los Angeles, and those odds improve to just 19.8 per cent in a home game.

In other words, while a close game likely beckons for the Chiefs regardless of who wins the NFC Championship Game, an upset win for the Bengals in Kansas City would make the Rams or the Niners (72.1 per cent home game, 67.2 per cent away game) clear favourites to win the Super Bowl on the neutral field site at SoFi Stadium.

The Bengals' status as rank outsiders even after making it this far is in part based on the struggles of an offensive line that ranked 25th in Stats Perform's pass protection win rate and allowed nine sacks in the Divisional Round win over the Tennessee Titans.

San Francisco (first), Los Angeles (second) and the Chiefs (15th) each ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass-rush win rate, meaning Cincinnati will be at a clear disadvantage in the trenches in the AFC Championship Game and in a potential Super Bowl matchup.

The 2021 NFL season has been full of surprises, but the numbers clearly point to the Rams playing in a home Super Bowl against the Chiefs. 

So, is everybody ready for Niners-Bengals?