The AFC West has been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs in recent seasons, with six division titles in succession.
In fact, if the Chiefs can extend that streak to seven, they will tie each of the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on 15 division titles.
Unfortunately for those in Kansas City, their rivals appear especially determined to ensure this year is different.
No division has prompted as much intrigue during the offseason as the AFC West, which has appeared at the centre of numerous big trades as its pretenders attempt to become contenders.
So hard to split is the division that Stats Perform has not even attempted to try – instead explaining what needs to happen for each of these teams in turn to be successful...
Kansas City Chiefs
After topping the AFC West in six straight seasons, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Chiefs can be toppled in 2022: Patrick Mahomes is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career, Tyreek Hill is gone, and the competition in the division is intense.
Yet those are also three reasons why Mahomes will be determined to lead the Chiefs to another strong year.
One of the game's leading lights will hope the 2021 season, with its 3-4 start and hugely disappointing finish in the AFC Championship Game, does not live long in the memory, but his attempts to move on swiftly could easily be hampered by the departure of WR1 Hill to the Miami Dolphins.
However, tight end Travis Kelce – the career leader in Mahomes targets (540), completions (383) and passing yards (4,960) – remains in Kansas City, and the quarterback has the ability to make a partnership work with any receiver.
Mahomes just needs time, and that is what he can expect to get behind one of the best offensive lines in the game.
The Chiefs rebuilt their O-line last year, and they ranked third in the NFL in pass protection win percentage (80.16) in 2021. Crucially, that unit improved as the season went on; the six games in which Mahomes faced the most pressures were all before the Week 12 bye.
Mahomes' pass completion rate of 77.4 per cent when not pressured ranked second among QBs with 100 or more attempts last season; this dropped to 56.7 per cent when pressured – only marginally above the league average in such scenarios (56.6).
Widely considered the most talented passer of his generation, the Chiefs have focused on protecting Mahomes rather than worrying about who he is throwing to, and that should be a safe bet despite his postseason wobble.
Las Vegas Raiders
As one elite receiver leaves the AFC West in Hill, another arrives. Davante Adams has quit the Green Bay Packers to bring his star power to Vegas.
Since his rookie season, Adams ranks fifth in the NFL for catches (669), sixth for receiving yards (8,121) and second for receiving touchdowns (73), although he has spent his entire career playing with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Now, Adams will be paired with zero-time MVP Derek Carr, who threw for 23 TDs and 14 interceptions last year, ranking 24th in touchdown percentage (3.7). Rodgers, by comparison, threw for 37 scores and four picks, with his 7.0 TD percentage the best in the league.
Yet Carr will surely benefit from having Adams to throw to. He saw 25 passes dropped in 2021 – tied for the third-most in the NFL – and a solid completion percentage of 68.4 could have been better, as his expected completion percentage of 74.5 trailed only Mahomes (75.9).
Carr is clearly an accurate passer; he just needs a little help turning this talent into tangible rewards.
Adams is the ideal man to do that, with the duo teaming up previously for two years at Fresno State, in which time the receiver's 38 TDs led the FBS by some distance.
Last year, Adams – who dropped a career-low one pass, just 0.6 per cent of his targets – added 633 yards after the catch, fourth-most in the league, and led the way in recording a first down with 49.7 per cent of his targets.
He can have a transformative impact on a team who were already the Chiefs' nearest challengers in this division and will now be overseen by former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach.
Los Angeles Chargers
This division is so exciting not only because it contains four potentially great teams but because it contains four potentially great offenses.
For the Chargers, there are few doubts on that side of the ball. They have largely brought back the same offense that made Justin Herbert a star in 2021 with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history. Of course, the 17-game season helped in that regard, but only Tom Brady (5,316) outperformed Herbert (5,014) on the year.
As a result, the Chargers were fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747).
So, why did they miss out on the postseason?
Well, the Chargers had a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per game (360.1), and only two teams allowed more points across the season (459). That Herbert-powered offense ranked 23rd in time spent on the field, with the defense giving them too much to do in too little time.
There are reasons to believe that will change this year, though, with the acquisitions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson particularly notable for a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league for takeaways (21).
Only three players have had eight or more interceptions in a single season over the past two years; Jackson, one of those three, has done it twice.
No player has ever previously had eight or more picks in three straight seasons, but Jackson has shown no signs of slowing and could be exactly the type of superstar the Chargers need on defense to complement Herbert's efforts on offense and seize control of this division.
Denver Broncos
These might not be the four most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but they may well be the four most motivated.
Russell Wilson undoubtedly has a point to prove after ending a 10-year stint with the Seattle Seahawks that went downhill fast in its final 18 months. In early MVP contention after a 5-0 start to the 2020 season, Wilson went 13-12 over the rest of his Seahawks career.
He last year missed the postseason for only the second time and, according to Seattle, pushed for a trade. "I didn't initiate it," was Wilson's reply. "It was definitely mutual."
Regardless, Wilson will find a very receptive audience in Denver, where Broncos fans were desperate to see an end to the QB merry-go-round that had them in a spin for six straight years after Peyton Manning's farewell Super Bowl 50 win. They have had 10 different starters under center since 2016, second only to Washington (11).
In that time outside the title picture, though, the Broncos have rebuilt the rest of the roster, waiting for the sort of QB-coach combo they now have in Wilson and former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett.
Denver allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game last season (326.1) and the third-fewest points (322); on offense, a better QB than Teddy Bridgewater would have made more use of playing behind an O-line that ranked eighth in pass protection win percentage (78.64).
With personnel changes at the two most important positions, the Broncos can expect to be much, much better than 19th for yards per game (330.5) and joint-23rd for total points (335).
That improvement should take the Broncos from nowhere to somewhere, even in this AFC West.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
Barca weren't going to sign Williams if they could not register him, says Laporta's advisor
Barcelona were not going to sign Nico Williams if his registration with LaLiga could not be guaranteed, according to Blaugrana president Joan Laporta's advisor, Enric Masip.
The Spain international was a top target for Hansi Flick's side after playing a starring role during La Roja's Euro 2024 triumph.
Williams netted a fine solo goal in the 4-1 win over Georgia in the round of 16, becoming the first player on record at the Euros (since 1980) to score, assist and complete 100% of his passes (46 from 46) in a game he started.
The Athletic Bilbao forward was then named Player of the Match after finding the net in Spain's 2-1 victory over England in the final.
Williams was expected to reunite with international team-mate Lamine Yamal at Camp Nou.
It was reported he chose to remain with Bilbao after Barca were unable to guarantee his registration with LaLiga due to complying with the salary cap, but Masip - advisor to Laporta - has refuted those claims.
"If a player who is of your interest doesn't want to move, you don't have much leeway," he told El Chiringuito. "There was not much you could do.
"It's hard for me to think that if you were going to sign Nico Williams, you wouldn't be able to register him.
"Barca weren't going to pay €50 million or €60 million for a player if they weren't going to be able to register him. So, well, it surely would have been done."
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