Week 4 of the NFL season could well have a substantial bearing on how the playoff race shakes out.

Through three weeks, the 2022 campaign has delivered excitement at almost every turn, and there are plenty of high-stakes matchups to whet the appetite this weekend.

There are conference championship and Super Bowl rematches on the docket, as well as extremely intriguing matchups between some of the season's early pacesetters.

But which of the games on the schedule are likely to deliver the best contests? Stats Perform can provide some insight in that regard, using its SmartRatings as a guide.

SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).

So, let's take a look at the three games rated among the most exciting on the Week 4 slate and break down the key matchups that could decide them.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

SmartRating: 67

Win probability: Buffalo Bills (55.3%)

Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Bills linebackers

The Bills only need to look to their AFC East rivals the New England Patriots for a reminder of what can happen when a defense fails to defend 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson effectively.

Last week, Jackson threw for 218 yards and four touchdowns with one interception while rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. He became the first player in Ravens history to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the team's first three games of a season.

Limiting his efficiency on the ground will be critical for the Bills' hopes of outscoring a potent Ravens offense. On designed runs, Jackson is averaging a remarkable 13.47 yards per carry, with his threat as a runner naturally helping fuel the Ravens' play-action game. Baltimore's average of 10.85 yards per play on play-action is well above the league average of 9.15.

In Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills possess two athletic and intelligent linebackers. They will need to display their physical gifts and their awareness to help limit Jackson's impact with ball in hand and ensure they do not bite too hard against play-action and open large throwing windows for him to attack. An evenly matched clash between two AFC heavyweights promises to be a classic, and Milano and Edmunds may have a crucial say in it tilting in the favour of Buffalo.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SmartRating: 75

Win Probability: Kansas City Chiefs (54.7%)

Key Matchup: Travis Kelce vs. Antoine Winfield Jr.

The Chiefs are unlikely to find much joy targeting the Buccaneers outside corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who have each enjoyed excellent starts to the season as they look to gain a measure of revenge for their blowout loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

Instead, Patrick Mahomes will probably look to his most trusted weapon, All-Pro tight end Kelce, to help him get the Chiefs back on track following their shock loss to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.

Kelce has run 24 routes from the slot this season compared to nine from his in-line tight end spot. Having consistently thrived in the 'power slot' role throughout his career, Kelce will hope to do significant damage from that position while going against one the premier young safeties in the league.

Winfield has spent 63 percent of his snaps this season in the slot but has conceded a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on seven of his 11 targets. He has given up a big play on four of those targets.

With Kelce registering a burn on 18 of his 24 targets, the matchup looks to be in his favour. Winfield must find a way to ensure it isn't if the Bucs' defense is to provide yet more critical support to an offense that continues to struggle.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

SmartRating: 85

Win Probability: Los Angeles Rams 53.0%

Key Matchup: Aaron Donald vs. 49ers' Offensive Line

Even after losing their starting quarterback and All-Pro left tackle to injury, the 49ers are still only seen as slight underdogs in Monday's rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game.

But it is how the 49ers perform up front in the absence of Trent Williams that will likely determine if the Niners can continue their regular-season hoodoo over the Rams.

The Niners have won the last six regular-season meetings with Los Angeles, but the Rams – who finally knocked off their rivals in the game that mattered most – will be confident of ending that streak if Donald and Co. can take advantage of San Francisco sliding Colton McKivitz in at left tackle as Williams' replacement.

Much of that confidence will be based on how Jimmy Garoppolo performs when he is pressured. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 throws under pressure, Garoppolo's well-thrown percentage of 54.5 is the second worst in the NFL.

Donald has already racked up 13 pressures on 40 pass rush snaps and is known for his ability to create pressure from anywhere on the defensive line. McKivitz, right tackle Mike McGlinchey and an extremely inexperienced interior offensive line must deliver their best for San Francisco to avoid falling to 1-3.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is unsure if he will be able to play at the age of 45, but said his aim is to replicate Tom Brady by playing at the highest level for as long as possible.

The Chiefs travel to Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, where Mahomes will come up against his legendary counterpart for the first time since the Bucs beat Kansas City at Super Bowl LV.

Both teams are 2-1 in 2022, and coming off Week 3 defeats after the Chiefs were beaten by the Indianapolis Colts, while Tampa Bay lost to the Green Bay Packers.

Brady is the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards (85,193) and touchdown passes (627), while he also led the league in passing yards (5,316) and TD passes (43) last season.

Speaking ahead of Sunday's clash at Raymond James Stadium, Mahomes said he wants to emulate the 45-year-old – who retired at the end of last season before changing his mind – by maintaining a high level for as long as possible.

"I want to play as long as I can play, and I can still have a chance to help the team get better," he said.

"Obviously, it's hard to play until you're 45 years old, and I don't want to be out there just hanging on. You see what Tom is – he's still playing at a very high level.

"I think that's why it's hard for him to kind of give it up – when you're playing at a high level you don't want to leave it.

"For me, I'm going to try to keep my body in the best shape possible and as long as they'll let me play and I can play at a high level, I'll be out there."

Mahomes was fourth in the league for passing yards in 2021 (4,839) and tied fourth for TD passes (37), and credited the impact Brady continues to have in the NFL.

"It's special to see the things that he's done in this league," the 27-year-old added. "The way he was able to change the position, the longevity of great success – I mean that's the crazy part – you look at his career and there's never really been a down year.

"He's always been great and had a great season and found ways to get even better.

"He's done stuff off the field that hasn't impacted him on the field, but still made his legacy even greater, so it's always a great opportunity for me and our team to go up against a great quarterback and really [see] where our team is at."

The NFL is hopeful Sunday's Kansas City Chiefs-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game can take place as scheduled at the latter's Raymond James Stadium, but a Hurricane Ian contingency plan is in place.

If the game needs to move for weather-related safety reasons, it will be relocated to the Minnesota Vikings' U.S. Bank Stadium.

NFL executive vice president of communications Jeff Miller told reporters on Wednesday of the league's plan B.

He said the NFL is in contact with local authorities regarding the category four storm, which has made landfall in southwestern Florida with damaging winds reaching 155mph.

The Bucs have already evacuated Tampa, training at the Miami Dolphins' facility while they are in Cincinnati to play the Bengals on Thursday.

"We're going to try to go about business as usual, and it's a little different, but everybody's families are safe, so hopefully we can concentrate," Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said.

In addition to monitoring the hurricane and any potential flooding or destruction around Raymond James Stadium, the league is taking into consideration whether playing the game in Tampa would exhaust resources that could potentially be needed in disaster relief efforts.

The league has not revealed a deadline as to when a decision would be made for the location of the game, but Miller said it will still be played on Sunday rather than being pushed back.

"Until we know more about the storm, it's going to be difficult to make that decision," Miller said.

This would be the second time in as many seasons the NFL has moved a game due to weather after Hurricane Ida forced the Green Bay Packers-New Orleans Saints 2021 season opener to be moved to Jacksonville.

The Saints are facing the Vikings in London this Sunday, making Minnesota's stadium available.

"We can't control the outside forces," Bowles said. "Our thoughts are with the city of Tampa right now, but where we have to play ... hopefully it is Tampa and everything is fine; that means we're not damaged too much.

"But if we have to go play elsewhere, we just have to focus and lock in. Nobody's going to feel sorry for us, so we've got to be ready to play."

Patrick Mahomes has taken responsibility for the Kansas City Chiefs' inconsistent start to the season on offense despite a largely new cast of receivers.

The Chiefs fell to 2-1 with Sunday's 20-17 defeat to the previously winless Indianapolis Colts.

After dominating the Arizona Cardinals in a 44-21 Week 1 victory, Kansas City had just 20 points on offense in their 27-24 win over the Los Angeles Chargers and came up short against the Colts.

Only three times in Mahomes' career have the Chiefs scored fewer than 17 points in a regular season game.

The superstar quarterback completed only 20 of his 35 pass attempts for 262 yards and a single touchdown, also throwing an interception on the team's final drive as they sought to force overtime.

After scoring TDs on their first two visits to the red zone, the Chiefs returned only three points from their final two, with Matt Ammendola's fourth-quarter field-goal miss proving costly.

This inefficiency might be explained by the absence of Tyreek Hill – traded to the 3-0 Miami Dolphins – but Mahomes is not looking for excuses.

"I don't expect any growing pains," he said. "Obviously we have new players and you don't know everybody's going to respond to tough situations.

"We've got to gel all together. It starts with me. There were certain throws I was putting on guys' back hips instead of in front of him. There were certain situations where we were just barely off of it.

"Whenever you're playing a tough game like that, you have to execute at a higher level and we have to learn from it.

"Our schedule gets no easier. We have a hard game Sunday [against] Tampa next week with a great defense, so we have to get better quickly.

"And if we don't, we don't want these [losses] to start piling up. We want to make sure we get back on that winning train."

For the season, only the Detroit Lions (11) have scored more red zone TDs than the Chiefs (nine from 13 RZ drives), who rank eighth in red zone TD efficiency.

Last year, the Chiefs were 14th in efficiency, scoring 41 touchdowns from 68 red zone drives.

The Miami Dolphins moved to 3-0 for the season and handed the Buffalo Bills their first defeat with a narrow 21-19 victory at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

The Bills had lived up to their pre-season Super Bowl favourites tag after outscoring their opponents 72-17 in their first two outings, but they came unstuck in Florida.

Two touchdowns from Chase Edmonds propelled the Dolphins to a first win in eight against the Dolphins and gave them sole possession of top spot in the AFC East.

The Dolphins came out on top despite being outgained 497-212 in total yards, with Buffalo picking up 31 first downs to their opponents' 15.

Josh Allen has often been a menace against the Dolphins and completed a career-high 42 passes from 63 attempts for 400 yards and two touchdowns, but it was not enough for the Bills.

Miami took the lead with 10 minutes remaining through the second of Edmonds' touchdowns, and held on despite punter Thomas Morstead bizarrely kicking one into his own teammates' rear end and out of bounds for a safety.
 
Allen drove the Bills as far as Miami's 41-yard line on a completion to Isaiah McKenzie, but he was unable to get out of bounds and the clock struck zero before Allen could spike the ball for a potential game-winning field goal.

Jackson's five inspires Ravens

Lamar Jackson's five touchdowns inflicted a 37-26 loss on the New England Patriots and moved the Baltimore Ravens 2-1 in the AFC North.

Jackson became the first player in NFL history to register three-plus pass touchdowns and 100+ rushing yards twice in the same season, doing so in back-to-back games.

Mac Jones matched Jackson with a rushing touchdown and threw for 323 yards, but the Pats' offense ultimately self-destructed in a disappointing defeat at Gillette Stadium, with Jones limping off at the end to add insult to injury.

Mahomes interception proves costly

Rodney McLeod picked off Patrick Mahomes with eight seconds left for the latter's first interception of the season as the Indianapolis Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-17.

Mahomes finished the game 20 for 35 for 262 yards, one touchdown and that costly interception that saw the Chiefs fall to 2-1 for the year.

The Colts only took the lead with 24 seconds left in the fourth quarter as Matt Ryan and Jelani Woods hooked up for the second time with a 12-yard touchdown.

Two weeks down in the NFL and the action has been sensational so far.

Late comebacks were the name of the game last week and Week 3 promises to bring even more excitement.

Sunday sees the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins battle it out to remain undefeated, the Baltimore Ravens will aim to respond to a Week 2 defeat against the New England Patriots, while the Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans fight to pick up a first win of the season.

There's plenty more on the agenda and Stats Perform has used Opta data to preview the action.

Buffalo Bills (2-0) @ Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Bills travel to Florida having won their past seven games against the Dolphins, outscoring them by better than a two-to-one margin (258-123). That marks Buffalo's longest winning streak against Miami, beating a run of six consecutive victories from 1987 to 1989.

Buffalo have outscored their opponents 72-17 so far this season to stand 2-0, with the +55-point differential their second-best through the first two games of a season. In 1981, they won their opening two matches by a combined score of 66-3 (+63 points).

The Dolphins overcame a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit (35-14) in last week's 42-39 win at Baltimore, marking the sixth time since 1925 that an NFL team has won a game in regulation time after trailing by such a margin in the fourth quarter. The last such comeback win was in 2010, when the Eagles beat the Giants 38-31 in Week 16, having trailed 31-10.

Tua Tagovailoa threw six touchdown passes, including four in the fourth quarter, against the Ravens last week. Since 2001, the only other player to throw four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter of an NFL game was Sage Rosenfels for the Texans against the Titans in Week 7 of the 2007 season, though Houston lost 38-36.

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) @ New England Patriots (1-1)

The Patriots have a 9-2 record against the Ravens in the regular season, the best record by any team against Baltimore in their history – though they have split four postseason matches.

Lamar Jackson became the first player in NFL history to have a 75+ yard passing touchdown and a 75+ rushing touchdown in the same game during last weekend's defeat to the Dolphins.

In week 2, the Patriots beat the Steelers 17-14. Since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000, the Patriots are 42-23 in games decided by three of fewer points, the best such record in the NFL.

Nelson Agholor recorded 110 receiving yards in Week 2, becoming the first Patriot with a 100-yard game since Jakobi Meyers in Week 15, 2020. That brought an end to a 20-game streak without a 100-yard receiver for the Patriots, which was the longest spell in the Belichick era.

Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) @ Tennessee Titans (0-2)

The Raiders have won their past three games on the road against the Titans. The last time the Raiders won four straight road games against a single opponent was a six-game streak against the Chiefs from 2007 to 2012.

An 29-23 overtime loss to the Cardinals in Week 2 came despite them holding a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter, marking the biggest fourth-quarter blown lead for a loss in franchise history.

The Titans are 0-2 for the first time since 2012 and last started a season 0-3 in 2009. The 41-7 loss to the Bills last week was the largest defeat suffered by the Titans under Mike Vrabel.

Both the Raiders and Titans are 0-2 this season after making the playoffs a season ago. Neither franchise has ever started a season with two defeats and rallied to make the playoffs, while the last NFL teams to do so being the Texans and Seahawks in 2018.

Elsewhere…

Chicago host the Texans with just 432 offensive yards to their name so far this season, the worst in the NFL and the fewest yards the Bears have gained in the opening two weeks of a campaign since they had 335 net yards at the same stage in 2003.

Patrick Mahomes rallied the Chiefs offence to a 27-24 victory against the Chargers last week, overcoming a 17-7 second-half deficit, and are eyeing a third-straight win this season against the Colts. Since his first NFL season (2018), the Chiefs have more comeback victories after trailing in the second half (17) than any other NFL side.

The Saints travel to Carolina on the back of a 20-10 home defeat to the Buccaneers last week. Dating back to last season, New Orleans have scored 17 or fewer points in five of their past nine games (1-4). When they have scored 18 or more, they stand at 4-0.

The Cincinnati Bengals have plenty to do offensively against the Jets, with Joe Burrow having been sacked 13 times so far this season and thrown four interceptions. The last QB to be sacked that many times while throwing as many picks in the opening two weeks of a season was Danny White of the Cowboys in 1987.

The NFL has suspended Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay for four games for violating the league's personal conduct policy.

The suspension was revealed on Monday and stems from an arrest in January, when the 24-year-old was charged with misdemeanour criminal property damage at the home of the mother of his son.

He started in both of Kansas City's playoff games last January following the arrest, and agreed to a pre-trial diversion program over the summer to conclude the case.

Gay has started both games for the 2-0 Chiefs this season and is tied with L'Jarius Sneed for second on the team with 16 tackles. He also has two tackles for loss, two passes defended and one quarterback hit.

It is uncertain if Gay will appeal the suspension in an effort to get it reduced, but as it stands, he will miss games against the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills, and will be eligible to return against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7.

Patrick Mahomes just about got the better of Justin Herbert on Thursday but expects the Los Angeles Chargers to continue to push his Kansas City Chiefs all the way.

Both the Chiefs and the Chargers are tipped for Super Bowl contention this year in a highly talented AFC West.

Kansas City have won the division six years in a row, but the scale of their task this season was made clear in this meeting with the Chargers, who forced Mahomes to rally from a 17-7 deficit to win 27-24.

Herbert admirably battled a rib injury as he attempted to take down Mahomes, yet the former MVP delivered yet another comeback.

This was the 20th game of Mahomes' career – regular season or playoffs – in which he had been down by 10 points, and he has now converted 11 of those into wins.

Past turnarounds include the Super Bowl LIV success against the San Francisco 49ers when the Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, as well as Herbert's NFL debut, when the Chargers lost in overtime early in the 2020 season.

"I think every game [against Herbert] is going to be a lot like this one," Mahomes told Amazon Prime Video.

"In the games I've played against him in the past, we've gone to overtime twice and it's been an end-of-game situation.

"It's going to be games like this, and hopefully I can find a ways to win them and our team can find a ways to win them, like we did today."

Mahomes is the only NFL quarterback with a winning record in games where he has trailed by double-digit points (minimum 20 starts), with Tom Brady next-best at 39-61 (.390).

"I want to go out there and win; I don't care how it looks," Mahomes added. "Tonight was very ugly.

"I'm sure it's not going to have a great film session tomorrow, but we found a way to get a win at the end of the day, and that's all I care about."

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley says they will learn more about the severity of quarterback Justin Herbert's apparent ribs injury on Friday but is confident he will be OK.

Herbert played through apparent pain in Thursday's 27-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs following a series of big tackles on the QB in the fourth quarter.

The Chargers QB still managed to find DeAndre Carter and then Josh Palmer in an impressive drive for a late touchdown but seemed in discomfort and gestured towards his ribs on the sidelines.

Herbert did not appear for post-game media duties, instead going off for an X-ray on the injury, although Staley was confident he would be fine.

"No," Staley told reporters when asked if he was concerned about Herbert's health. "No, because he's Justin Herbert."

Staley added: "You're not going to see a quarterback at any level of football play tougher and do more for their team and will their team to give them a chance more than him.

"There's nobody that can do what he can do, nobody. He showed a lot of guts, he showed us what he shows every day, that we're never out of the fight, and he brought us back and gave us a chance."

Despite that, Staley revealed they anticipate they will learn more about Herbert's health on Friday after a more thorough evaluation.

The Kansas City Chiefs fought back from another double-digit deficit sparked by rookie Jaylen Watson's 99-yard pick six as they won 27-24 over the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday.

Patrick Mahomes produced a patient display, throwing two touchdowns and completing 24 of 35 passes for 235 yards, leading them back from a 17-7 deficit to make it two wins to start the new season.

Justin Herbert was gallant for the Chargers, playing through considerable pain after a series of fourth-quarter hits, to end with three TD passes, completing 33 of 48 passes for 334 yards but with one interception.

That interception came in the fourth quarter with scores locked at 17-17, with Herbert aiming for Gerald Everett on the goalline, only for Watson to clasp it and race away for the game-winning TD.

The Chargers had led 10-7 at half-time, with rookie Alexander Horvath making it two touchdowns in his first two games, before Mahomes' side-arm fastball found Jerick McKinnon for the reply, moving him past Alex Smith for the third-most completions (1,588) in franchise history in the process.

Mike Williams, who had eight receptions for 113 yards, plucked a remarkable one-handed catch under tight coverage from L'Jarius Sneed to put the Chargers up 17-7.

The Chargers were left frustrated after two interceptions were overturned before Mahomes found Travis Watson with a 41-yard pass to score. The Chiefs would pile on 20 unanswered points after rookie Watson made his pick six before Matt Ammendola converted a 32-yard attempt.

Herbert found DeAndre Carter with a late dart before showing poise under apparent duress from a fourth and goal to hit Josh Palmer to make it 27-24. The Chargers confirmed after the game that Herbert would undergo an X-ray.

Thursday night’s marquee matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs features two potent offenses, but one team will be decidedly short-handed with decorated Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

Allen was forced to leave the Chargers’ Week 1 24-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in the first half after he had four receptions for 66 yards. Allen said he felt a slight pull, and the hamstring tightened after he planted his foot to the turf during the second quarter.

Coach Brandon Staley on Tuesday said Allen's injury ''is going to take some time''.

Without Allen, fellow receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer figure to assume enlarged roles, with DeAndre Carter also likely to see increased playing time. Both Palmer and Carter had three catches against the Raiders.

Allen has been mostly durable during his 10-year career and has appeared in 16 games in four of the previous five seasons. The only significant time he missed was after he tore his ACL in the opening week of the 2016 season.

The 30-year-old Allen has caught at least 95 passes each of the past five years, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. He leads the league in catches over the past five seasons, where he has posted at least 1000 receiving yards in each and is a five-time Pro Bowl selection.

Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley were recognised as the respective AFC and NFC Offensive Player of the Week after flying starts to the new NFL season.

Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to a dominant 44-21 Week 1 win at the Arizona Cardinals.

The 2018 MVP leads the league in passing touchdowns (five), passing yards (360) and quarterback rating (144.2) at this early stage.

Only Joe Burrow matched Mahomes' 22 passes for first downs, while he did not throw an interception and was not sacked, making him an obvious choice as the standout player in the AFC.

Minkah Fitzpatrick, who played a vital role in the Pittsburgh Steelers' wild win over Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals, is the AFC Defensive Player of the Year.

The Steelers safety caught a pick-six from Burrow's first pass of the game and later, crucially, blocked Evan McPherson's PAT to take the game to overtime.

Cade York was more accurate as time expired in the Cleveland Browns' dramatic victory over the Carolina Panthers, kicking the winning field goal to earn AFC Special Teams Player of the Week recognition.

In the NFC, New York Giants running back Barkley was the standout player on offense, stealing the show against a Tennessee Titans team featuring two-time rushing yards and rushing TDs leader Derrick Henry.

Barkley has the most rushing yards at this early stage with 164 and a score. His 68-yard run in the drive that culminated in his TD was the longest carry of the week.

The fifth-year superstar, who has been hampered by injuries since an outstanding rookie season, also caught a Daniel Jones pass for the decisive two-point conversion in a 21-20 Giants victory.

Also honoured in the NFC were debutant Seattle Seahawks linebacker Uchenna Nwosu and Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Zech McPhearson.

Nwosu sacked the Denver Broncos' former Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and forced a fumble from Melvin Gordon at the one-yard line, while McPhearson fielded the Detroit Lions' attempted onside kick to set up a Boston Scott touchdown in an Eagles win.

How quickly the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense would adjust to the loss of Tyreek Hill was the question on everyone’s minds entering the 2022 NFL season – but Patrick Mahomes and his teammates had a quick and emphatic answer.

Mahomes was nearly flawless and the offense unstoppable at times as the AFC powerhouses started their campaign with Sunday’s 44-21 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, extending the NFL’s current longest active wining streak in season openers.

The Chiefs didn’t miss a beat in their first outing since trading Hill, a six-time Pro Bowler who amassed a team-high 111 catches and 1,239 receiving yards in 2021, to the Miami Dolphins in March. Kansas City scored touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, with each drive 75 yards or longer, to build a 20-7 lead midway through the second quarter and force the Cardinals into catch-up mode right from the outset.

Mahomes capped each of those series with touchdown passes – two to running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire – while completing a razor-sharp 16 of 19 throws for 163 yards over the course of those three drives.

"Guys were just ready to go," Mahomes said. "They were excited to get out there and show what we had. Everybody’s asked us the questions of what this offense, what this team’s going to look like. We’ve always believed that we were going to go out there and put on a show and I thought guys did that."

Mahomes didn’t stop there, finishing with five TD passes while completing 30 of 39 attempts for 360 yards without an interception to lead Kansas City to their eighth consecutive season-opening win under coach Andy Reid.

The 2018 NFL MVP has started the past five of those lid-lifters, and thrown for 18 touchdowns and no interceptions in those games.

"It’s coach Reid getting more weeks to game-plan," Mahomes said of his history of early-season success. "That’s always a good thing for me because he’s getting guys kind of running wide open.

"But then I think it’s (also) how we do training camp. It prepares you to be ready Week 1. Coach has a great game-plan in, you have guys flying around that are ready to go, ready to play a game and not be at practice against each other. We’ve done a great job of just executing in Week 1."

Mahomes’ rapport with the two players brought in to help replace Hill was instant as well. Former Pittsburgh Steelers wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster produced six catches for 79 yards (all in the first half) in his Chiefs debut, while ex-Green Bay Packer Marques Valdes-Scantling hauled in all four of his targets for 44 yards.

Six Kansas City players finished with at least three receptions on a day when Mahomes emphasised spreading the ball around, though star tight end Travis Kelce unsurprisingly was the focal point with 121 yards and a touchdown on eight catches.

"With the amount of tight ends, running backs and receivers that we have, it’s going to be everyone,” Mahomes remarked. "It’s going to be a lot of guys catching passes. It’s going to be running the football, it’s going to be throwing the football. It’s going to be the short game. It’s going to be the deep passes.

"I think that makes this a hard offence to stop."

The first week of the 2022 NFL season is here, with all the possibilities a new campaign brings.

Things kicked off on Thursday with the Buffalo Bills beating the Los Angeles Rams 31-10 thanks to a starring role from quarterback Josh Allen, who threw three touchdowns against the defending champions.

There are even more enticing games to look forward to over the weekend, with last season's Super Bowl runners up the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, Patrick Mahomes and the much-fancied Kansas City Chiefs facing Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, and it will be Aaron Rodgers v Kirk Cousins as the Green Bay Packers go to the Minnesota Vikings.

Stats Perform dives head first into Opta data to preview those games and more of the opening weekend of NFL action.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have won their last three games against the Steelers (27-17 in December 2020, 24-10 and 41-10 last season). It is the Bengals' longest winning streak versus the Steelers since they won six consecutive games from 1988 through 1990.

Mitch Trubisky will be the first quarterback other than Ben Roethlisberger to start a season opener for the Steelers since Dennis Dixon in 2010 (Roethlisberger was suspended). Trubisky is 1-2 in season openers, losing to the Packers twice and beating the Detroit Lions (all when he was with the Chicago Bears).

The Bengals played a league-high seven games decided by exactly three points during the 2021 regular season (won three, lost four), the highest single-season total by an NFL team since the 2012 Steelers (seven). Three of Cincinnati's four postseason games were also decided by exactly three points, including the 23-20 Super Bowl loss to the Rams.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed 67 of 85 passes for 971 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions over his final two games in the 2021 regular season (Week 16 against the Ravens, Week 17 against the Chiefs). Burrow's passing yardage is the second-highest two-game total by one player in NFL history, trailing only Dak Prescott's 974 passing yards over a two-game span in 2020.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs have won their division in six consecutive seasons, which is three more than the next longest active streak (Green Bay). Only two teams in NFL history have had longer streaks (New England - 11, 2009-2019 and LA Rams - seven, 1973-1979).

Patrick Mahomes has won 50 of his 63 career starts as Kansas City's quarterback. The only QB in the Super Bowl era to reach 50 wins in fewer career starts than Mahomes was Kenny Stabler, who earned his 50th win in his 62nd start.

Arizona scored 30 or more points in nine different games in 2022, tied for the most in a single season in team history. Since a 56-14 win over the Vikings in Week 4 of 1963, the Cardinals have gone 903 games without scoring 50 points, which is the longest streak in NFL history (Broncos, 761 straight games from 1963-2013).

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will not want to be upstaged by Mahomes, and is the only player in NFL history to have at least 70 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in the first three seasons of his NFL career.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

In their 22 road games against the Vikings this century, Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in 10 of them. That is tied for most 30-point games by an NFL team at a single opponent in that time with the Patriots at the Bills.

No NFL head coach has won more games over his first three NFL seasons than Matt LaFleur (39; George Seifert had 38). A win Sunday would make LaFleur the third coach in NFL history with 40 wins through 50 career games as head coach, joining Paul Brown (41) and Chuck Knox (40).

Kirk Cousins has thrown for at least 3500 yards and 25 TDs in seven consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the NFL. He is the fifth QB in NFL history to have more than five straight, joining Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady.

Since becoming Green Bay's starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 169 TDs against division opponents, compared to 25 interceptions. The Vikings have a total of 121 passing touchdowns and 73 interceptions against the NFC North in that span.

Elsewhere...

When Carolina host Cleveland, with Baker Mayfield starting for the Panthers and Myles Garrett starting for the Browns, they will become the second pair of number one overall draft picks for the same team to go on to play against one another. The others were Jeff George and Steve Emtman in 1995.

The Eagles head to the Lions, with no team targeting their receivers less frequently than Philadelphia last season (239 targets), which led to the acquisition of A.J. Brown. The fourth-year WR has scored a TD on 13.0 percent of his career catches, third-highest rate among active players (min. 150 receptions).

The New Orleans Saints will need to beware of Foye Oluokun, who led the NFL last season with 192 total tackles, becoming the first Atlanta Falcon to lead the league in that category since Jessie Tuggle in 1995 (152). Oluokun's 192 total tackles were the most in a season by an NFL player since Chris Spielman had 195 in 1994 for the Lions.

Tom Brady is back for Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a very brief retirement as they travel to the Dallas Cowboys. The 45-year-old's last two seasons mark the first time in NFL history a QB has had 40 or more TD passes and a passer rating of 100.0 or better in back-to-back seasons.

The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.