The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

Even accounting for Chelsea's shoddy start to the Champions League, few would have expected Thomas Tuchel to be out of a job by Wednesday.

The Blues started their European campaign with a lacklustre 1-0 setback at Dinamo Zagreb, a result that follows an underwhelming trend to start the season.

With three wins, two losses and one draw from six games, the Blues sit sixth in the infant Premier League table.

Still, most would have expected Tuchel – who has won the Champions League and Club World Cup with Chelsea – to be afforded more time to bed in the likes of Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Wesley Fofana and Kalidou Koulibaly following a big-spending transfer window under the club's new owners led by Todd Boehly.

But, alas, he has not, and for the first time Chelsea are after a new boss under their new regime. We have taken a look at the most likely candidates to replace Tuchel at Stamford Bridge.

MAURICIO POCHETTINO

The last time Chelsea were looking for a successor for a sacked manager, they turned to a former Paris Saint-Germain boss in Tuchel to replace club legend Frank Lampard. Might history repeat itself here? Certainly Pochettino would be attainable after the Argentine departed the Parc des Princes in July despite winning the Ligue 1 title. Pochettino also brings extensive knowledge of the Premier League having managed Southampton before joining Tottenham in May 2014. Pochettino failed to deliver major silverware but did lead the club to the 2019 Champions League final and secured four straight top-four finishes.

GRAHAM POTTER

A name that has cropped up early in the bookmakers' odds is Brighton and Hove Albion boss Potter, a man who has earned plenty of admirers due to the attractive brand of football employed by his Seagulls side. Having coached Swedish side Ostersund for seven years, Potter joined Swansea City in 2018 and a year later made the move to the Amex Stadium. After finishing 15th and 16th in his first two top-flight seasons, Brighton placed ninth last term and Potter has long been tipped for bigger things, with his case boosted by a fantastic start to the 2022-23 season.

ZINEDINE ZIDANE

Another boss out of work, though reports suggest Zidane remains keen to take on the France job should Didier Deschamps leave after Qatar 2022. One of the greatest players of all time, Zidane has also enjoyed success in the dugout at Real Madrid. Over two spells as coach at the Santiago Bernabeu, Zidane won three Champions League titles (all in a row from 2016 to 2018), two LaLiga medals, and the Club World Cup twice among a plethora of honours. He also showed his ability to manage big egos at the Santiago Bernabeu, a trait that may appeal to Boehly.

BRENDAN RODGERS

A move that would probably represent an outside bet given Leicester City's shoddy start to the season that sees them winless after six matches and rooted to the bottom of the table, but there is context behind that – including the sale of Fofana to Chelsea. Rodgers previously managed Liverpool and went agonisingly close to winning the title in the 2013-14 season – eventually finishing runners-up to Manchester City. After an impressive spell with Celtic, Rodgers returned to English football with Leicester and defeated Chelsea in the 2020-21 FA Cup final. Moreover, Rodgers is a familiar face at Stamford Bridge having managed the club's reserve side from 2006-2008.

DIEGO SIMEONE

Simeone is an undoubted legend at Atletico Madrid, where he has managed to consistently compete against heavyweight rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona in LaLiga for over a decade. A two-time league winner, to go with medals in the Europa League, Copa del Rey and Supercopa a Espana, Simeone knows how to win trophies – even though two runs to the final of the Champions League both ended in defeat to Real Madrid. But having finished third and 15 points off the top last term, and started this season in patchy form (two wins, a draw and a defeat from four games), perhaps Simeone may finally be swayed by the prospect of pastures new.

Tottenham are gearing up for their first Champions League campaign in three seasons with momentum on their side and expectation levels high.

A large part of that is down to head coach Antonio Conte, who guided Spurs back into Europe's elite club competition in his first half-season in charge of the north London club.

Conte boasts a CV that is the envy of many managers around the world, the Italian having won eight major trophies during his coaching career, including five top-level league titles in two countries.

But Conte's domestic success has not transferred onto the European stage, having exited the Champions League in the group stage more times than he has advanced, despite managing some of the continent's elite clubs.

Ahead of Tottenham's Group D opener against Marseille on Wednesday, in which Conte will become the fourth coach to take charge of more than one English club in the competition, Stats Perform looks at the 53-year-old's underwhelming record.

JUST ONE KNOCKOUT WIN

Tottenham will be the fourth side Conte has taken charge of in the Champions League after Juventus, Chelsea and Inter. He has managed 36 games with those three heavyweight sides but won just 12 for a 33 per cent win rate.

To put that into some context, that compares to a 65 per cent win rate in the Premier League (over a much larger sample of games) and 68 per cent win rate in Serie A.

Breaking down that European record further, Conte won six of his 16 matches as Juve boss in the competition and just three each with Chelsea and Inter across eight and 12 matches respectively.

Those victories with Juve, Inter and Chelsea, if you were wondering, came against Celtic (twice), Qarabag (twice), Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Monchengladbach, Chelsea, Copenhagen, Nordsjaelland, Shakhtar Donetsk and Slavia Prague.

Conte's best run in UEFA's elite club tournament remains his first campaign when taking Juve to the quarter-finals in the 2012-13 season, where his title winners were well beaten by Bayern Munich over two legs.

Remarkably, that season's 5-0 aggregate win over Celtic in the last 16 remains Conte's only knockout-stage success in the Champions League.

That was one of only two occasions in five attempts a Conte side has made it beyond the first round, in fact, the other instance being in the 2017-18 season when Chelsea finished second to Roma in the group and were then eliminated by Barcelona in the last 16.

Conte was unable to guide Juve out of the group stage in 2013-14, failing to finish ahead of Galatasaray for second place behind Real Madrid, and also fell at the first hurdle in successive seasons with Inter.

EXCUSES, EXCUSES

But exactly why has one of the best coaches of his generation struggled so badly when it comes to balancing domestic and European football?

One suggestion is that, like a lot of Italian coaches, Conte prioritises league titles over continental cups, but the Spurs boss laughed that idea off at a news conference on Tuesday and pointed to the success of compatriot Carlo Ancelotti, the winner of more European Cups than any other coach.

"Success in Europe with a trophy is important for every manager," Conte added when probed on his underwhelming Champions League record. "You know very well that it is not simple, not easy to lift a trophy in Europe and especially the Champions League. 

"It is important to be there and you have more probability if you are the coach of a team who expects to win. Two years ago, with Inter, we lost the final of the Europa League against Sevilla. For sure, in my heart, in my mind, in my ambition, there is the will to have success in Europe."

Conte did indeed reach the final of the Europa League with Inter in the 2019-20 season, but even that can be considered a disappointment as a much-fancied Nerazzurri lost to Sevilla in the final and were only in the competition by virtue of their early Champions League elimination.

Another theory, put forward by Conte himself, is that his squads simply have not had the depth to cope with demanding runs across multiple competitions. 

"Some important mistakes have been made at the planning stage; we can't play both the Champions League and Serie A with such a small squad," Conte said two years ago on the back of Inter's second successive group-stage exit.

"I'm tired of saying the same things over and over again. Perhaps the [club directors] could come over here and say something. I hope that this will help them understand a few things."

SIXTH TIME LUCKY WITH SPURS?

Passing the buck to those higher up is very much out of the Conte playbook, a classic ploy usually used to help get his way when the transfer window approaches.

But on the back of a busy few months of transfer activity at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in which the Italian has been backed heavily, that excuse will surely not cut it with Daniel Levy and Co.

While Tottenham are not realistically expected to challenge for the Champions League trophy this term, failing to advance from a favourable group that contains Marseille, Eintracht Frankfurt and Sporting CP would be yet another blight on Conte's CV.

However, Conte may already be laying the foundations to cover his back should Spurs miss out on a place in the last 16, with the ex-Chelsea boss hitting out at the congested fixture list this side of the World Cup.

"Honestly, to see this schedule about Tottenham is incredible, it's crazy because we played three games in six days against Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Fulham," he added on Tuesday.

"Now we are playing after four days, but we are starting to play again three important games against Marseille in the Champions League, [Manchester] City away and Sporting Lisbon away in six days. I think maybe this is my first time in my career to see a schedule like this.

"I think in this situation we are unlucky, but I think in the future, and also I spoke with the club, we have to pay great attention to speak also to the Premier League. One day more, one day less can change totally your life and you can drop points. This is no good for a team like Tottenham."

These are the same issues the likes of Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel have also raised, the difference being each of those have lifted the Champions League trophy aloft during their careers.

Now, as he embarks on his sixth season in the greatest club competition of them all, Conte must put talk of fixture congestion, a lack of squad depth or simply being unlucky with the draw to one side and prove that lessons have been learned from the past.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia played just 10 times for Lokomotiv Moscow, and only one of those appearances was as a starter.

Yet, his father claimed in 2020 that then-Lokomotiv coach Yury Syomin cried actual tears when Kvaratskhelia said he would not be staying beyond the end of his initial loan agreement. The youngster also apparently broke down.

Seemingly the teenaged Kvaratskhelia made quite the impression on his coach, though curiously not enough to play on a regular basis. It's fair to say Kvaratskhelia's decision to move on and ultimately join fellow Russian Premier League side Rubin Kazan was a smart one.

"After that, I was glad my son was in Rubin, where they let him play football," Kvaratskhelia Sr added, and it was in Kazan where the talented winger began to consistently show the talents that Napoli will hope can help them get the better of the mighty Liverpool on Wednesday.

Kvaratskhelia will make his Champions League bow when the Reds come to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, a commendable achievement given his rollercoaster of a 2022.

Turbulent times

A couple of weeks on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, FIFA made it possible for foreign players and coaches in both countries to suspend their contracts.

Kvaratskhelia was eligible for such action, and while he did suspend his agreement, it seemed his initial plan was to eventually return to Rubin.

However, he and the club later announced a mutual termination after it emerged his family were subject to threats due to the original decision of not permanently leaving Russia.

He saw out the remainder of the 2021-22 season back home in Georgia with Dinamo Batumi – it was clearly a level below his usual standard as he scored eight goals in 11 league games, but it helped keep Kvaratskhelia sharp for his national team, netting three times from four Nations League outings in June.

Nevertheless, few would have considered those early months of the year to be ideal for a young talent hoping to make the step up to one of Europe's major leagues – that was where he had previously looked destined to end up.

Arsenal had been known admirers for a long time, sending scouts to watch him as early as September 2019. Several other English and Italian clubs were linked with him, but it was Napoli who ultimately took the punt.

The early signs suggest it is going to pay off for them rather handsomely.

Blossoming at Napoli

Replacing a club great is never a simple task, but if Kvaratskhelia continues at his current rate, Lorenzo Insigne will become a distant memory very quickly.

Insigne's move to Toronto in Major League Soccer came as something of a surprise when initially announced, and filling that void with a player who had most recently been playing in Georgia will have raised some eyebrows.

Additionally, bringing in Kvaratskhelia for Insigne was hardly like-for-like. The latter was all about dropping deep and essentially playing as a playmaker, with his 74.1 touches and 45.2 successful passes per 90 minutes both highs among Opta-classified forwards (minimum 1,000 minutes played) in Serie A last term.

Kvaratskhelia is far more direct and intent on getting in behind the defence, while his ability on the ball makes him a threat both as a carrier and dribbler – his nine carries with a take-on is bettered by only Rafael Leao (12) among wingers this term.

A predominantly right-footed winger who prefers to operate from the left, one might expect him to be a little one-dimensional, but he has already shown in Serie A how effective he can be chopping back on to his left foot, bamboozling the Monza defence with a feint before slotting home left-footed in last month's 4-0 win.

That was one of four goals already this season, none of which were penalties – that is a haul no player can better without adding in spot-kicks, and that form helped him win the first Player of the Month award of the campaign.

Of course, it remains early days in his Napoli career, but he has taken to Serie A with promising ease and has a style of play that will endear him to a set of supporters always ready to fall in love with talented attackers.

Hopefully Syomin's tears of disappointment will turn to pride when 'Kvaradona' makes his Champions League introduction on Wednesday.

It seemed on a frenzied January night in Kansas City as though the AFC title would be decided by the toss of a coin.

The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries, coming up the field one last time to beat the Buffalo Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. were not to make the Super Bowl.

That the Chiefs were stunned by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game said a great deal for the strength in depth of the conference.

And that has been ratcheted up to another level over the course of the offseason, with Russell Wilson and Davante Adams among the notable names traded into the AFC.

The NFC may still have the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are no shortage of contenders here – including as many as four in one wild division out west.

The favourites

The Chiefs and the Bills would both have been hugely disheartened by the manner in which their seasons ended. Kansas City had the fortune that deserted Buffalo but were unable to make the most of their reprieve against the Bengals.

But that will merely make Mahomes and Josh Allen two of the more motivated superstars heading into the new season.

Mahomes is now without Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs' offensive line went from strength to strength as last season wore on, ranking third in pass protection win percentage by the year's end.

Meanwhile, Allen showed in that playoff blockbuster he can be every bit a match for Mahomes at his best. He threw nine touchdown passes across his two playoff games; no player had previously thrown more than seven while playing two games or fewer in a single postseason.

Allen will hope not to get the chance to better that record, this year targeting a run that goes far beyond the Divisional Round.

In the mix

The Bengals of course have to be considered after pushing the Los Angeles Rams all the way, while the Tennessee Titans actually matched the Chiefs for the best regular season record in the AFC despite Derrick Henry being limited to eight games, though the trade of receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles may restrict their ceiling on offense and ability to compete this year.

Deshaun Watson's suspension will give the Cleveland Browns work to do just to make the playoffs, but they may well be a serious threat if they get there.

A conference packed with quarterback talent also includes former MVP Lamar Jackson, who is fit again and looking to set the Baltimore Ravens back on course after a difficult 2021 in which they finished bottom of the AFC North.

But if the Chiefs are the team to beat, perhaps one of their division rivals can cause an upset. Each of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders have reasons to be optimistic.

Four contenders in the wild, wild AFC West

The Chiefs have won the AFC West six years in a row, but there is no guarantee that will become seven. The scale of the challenge before Kansas City represents a big boost to their AFC rivals – and to the neutrals, licking their lips at a must-watch season-long tussle.

Justin Herbert has long looked like making the Chargers contenders, with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history helping his offense finish fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747) last season. Crucially, the Chargers have added defensive help in the form of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson now, too.

Yet their offseason work perhaps pales next to that of the Broncos and the Raiders.

Wilson left the Seattle Seahawks for Denver, who promptly handed him a huge contract, clearly feeling he and Nathaniel Hackett can be the QB-coach combo they have been missing to return them to the postseason.

Support for that belief comes from Wilson's performance in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE), which measures a signal-caller's performance in expected passing situations against the league average. Despite playing only 14 games on a Seahawks team that finished in the NFC West cellar, Wilson was still 13th in EVE, just behind Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, Adams has reunited with former Fresno State team-mate Derek Carr on the Raiders, with Stats Perform's positional rankings subsequently considering Las Vegas to have the most talented skill players in the NFL.

The Chiefs will undoubtedly now be made to work for the division after years of dominance. 

Lamar out to right last year's wrongs

With half of the conference potentially in contention for a Super Bowl run, there is perhaps no true sleeper pick, but the Ravens will expect to go from worst to first in their division.

Much will depend on a return to form for dual-threat superstar Jackson.

Baltimore were firmly on course for the playoffs at the time of the ankle injury that kept Jackson out of the run-in in 2021, collapsing thereafter. However, it had already been by far the QB's worst season as a regular starter.

After 3,127 passing yards and 36 passing TDs and 1,206 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in his MVP season of 2019, Jackson had regressed slightly in 2020 and struggled further last year both through the air and on the ground.

In 12 games, Jackson threw just 16 TDs to 13 interceptions, while his 767 rushing yards saw him finish second among QBs to Jalen Hurts – a category he had dominated in the previous two campaigns.

Everything the Ravens do when they are good goes through Jackson, so his performance level will make or break their season.

Can Tua turn his fortunes around?

With the wealth of talent at the top of the AFC, there must also be some dregs at the bottom. The Miami Dolphins might fear they belong instead to that category.

The Dolphins made their own big move this offseason, taking elite receiver Hill out of the AFC West to give Tua Tagovailoa little excuse in his third season.

Hill got open on 82.7 per cent of his targets last season, with those skills of separation sure to come in useful when attempting to link up with a passer in Tagovailoa who threw to an open target just 73.8 per cent of the time.

The Dolphins are not expecting Tagovailoa to be Mahomes, but they need him to be much better than he has been thus far for this project to work.

The time is almost upon us. When that first ball is kicked at the start of the Los Angeles Rams' opener against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, we will be on our way to yet another enthralling season of NFL action.

And there are few better reasons to get excited at the beginning of a new campaign than the promise of a good old redemption story.

These tales may not necessarily revolve around someone who has suffered a fall from grace, though; in some cases, it might just be someone who has taken a smidge longer than expected to blossom.

So, before the thunder and lightning of a new NFL season, Stats Perform has taken a look at five men who could have a touch more motivation to show everything they have to offer in 2022.

Baker Mayfield – Carolina Panthers

Mayfield perhaps leaps out as the most obvious choice.

Big things were expected of the quarterback when he was the number one pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, charged with leading a flailing 0-16 Cleveland Browns.

There were moments of promise in his four years in Cleveland, throwing 27 touchdowns in 14 games in his first season, and in 2020 he played a big part in getting the Browns to the playoffs, unthinkable when he came through the door.

However, in 2021, Mayfield threw just 18 TD passes, the worst season of his career, as a Browns team who were starting to feel like they had outgrown him finished 8-9.

Of quarterbacks to have more than 300 passing attempts, only Sam Darnold (59.9), Trevor Lawrence (59.6) and Zach Wilson (55.6) had a lower pass completion percentage than his 60.5.

After a lot of uncertainty, he finally found a new home after being traded to the Panthers, who are in desperate need of a quality QB after the Darnold experiment failed last year.

It is a risk for both parties, and both need it to work, but you could also argue it could not get much worse for either.

Gabe Davis – Buffalo Bills

There had not been any immediately obvious signs that Davis was going to be a breakout star for the Bills for most of his first two seasons.

Seven TDs in his rookie year – and none in the playoffs from only four catches – were followed by just six in the 2021 regular season.

However, thanks to his explosive performance against the Kansas City Chiefs in last season's playoffs, plenty are excited about what could come from Davis and the much-fancied Bills in 2022.

His four TDs and 201 yards from eight receptions – for an average of 25.1 yards – were still not enough as the Chiefs ultimately won the AFC Divisional Round encounter in overtime, but Davis emerged as a potential new star.

By the end of the campaign, no player had recorded over 1,000 burn yards – yards in situations where a receiver 'wins' his matchup against a defender – from fewer receptions (45) than Davis.

But was this a one-off, or can Davis do it all over again? We will soon find out.

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence could end up being a very similar story to Mayfield. He was also the number one pick for a team with little else going for it.

In his rookie year, Lawrence threw for 12 TDs, but his poor pass completion percentage was set out above.

He remained a busy man regardless, with only six QBs making more than his 602 pass attempts, but the Jaguars could only manage three wins, two more than in 2020.

Whether it was sloppy throwing or feeling the need to take risks with little assistance, Lawrence threw 26 pickable passes, with only four QBs who made over 300 pass attempts seeing a worse pickable pass percentage than his 4.59 per cent (Jimmy Garoppolo – 4.82, Taylor Heinicke – 5.04, Zach Wilson – 5.21, Davis Mills – 5.56).

There is undoubted talent there, hence the hype when he was picked up by Jacksonville in 2021, and it is surely just a case of Lawrence having more help and getting more experience. We will perhaps see this season.

Matthew Stafford – LA Rams

Yes, it's another quarterback, but with a twist. This one just won the Super Bowl, after all.

It may seem strange given the ring he has on his finger, but the situation with Stafford's elbow means he must prove himself all over again.

In terms of numbers, the Rams QB has now established himself among the elite. Stafford ranks in the top 12 all-time in completions (11th, 4,302), passing yards (12th, 49,995), passing yards per game (sixth, 274.7), touchdown passes (12th, 323) and game-winning drives (seventh, 42).

Crucially, he led the team to Super Bowl success last year, too.

But the Rams' hopes of a repeat are pinned on Stafford being fit enough to perform all year long, and there are some worrying noises around an elbow issue heading into the year.

Should Stafford shake off those concerns and combine with Cooper Kupp for another outstanding season – and perhaps another ring – nobody could possibly doubt his legacy.

Kliff Kingsbury – Arizona Cardinals

It is not just players who have something to prove, but coaches, too – and you could argue Kingsbury does more than most.

While undoubtedly a talented coach, Kingsbury is building a reputation as someone who comes up with effective plays to start a season but is less able to adjust to keep ahead of the competition once they figure it out.

After winning their first seven games, the Cardinals raced out to a sensational 10-2 start last season, well ahead of projected results, only to stumble to 11-6 after losing four of their last five in the regular season, before being humbled 34-11 by the Rams in their first postseason game.

The excellent start cannot be ignored, but neither can the fact that it made nine seasons in a row in which a team led by Kingsbury have had a worse second half of the season than the first.

Despite being without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games due to suspension, Kingsbury has an exciting team in Arizona and it would be no surprise to see them start strongly again.

They just need to figure out a way to maintain it this time.

Istanbul awaits next June, and this week the journey starts as the group stage of the Champions League begins.

Of course, the ultimate goal is to reach the final and lift the trophy. Most will fail in that quest, but that's not to say those who don't win the competition are failures.

Every year we enjoy breakout seasons from individuals in the Champions League as they announce themselves on the biggest stage.

Whether those performances earn big-money moves or simply greater acclaim, you can expect there to be a few players you might not be very familiar with who go on to impress.

Ahead of the first round of games, Stats Perform has identified a few to keep an eye out for.

Tanguy Nianzou, centre-back, 20 – Sevilla

After coming through Paris Saint-Germain's academy and then spending a season at Bayern Munich, France youth international Nianzou joined Sevilla as the replacement for Jules Kounde in pre-season.

It's been a rocky start for the youngster. He's part of a defence that's looked extremely unconvincing, with their expected goals against (excluding penalties) of 7.5 the second-worst in LaLiga after four games, three of which Sevilla have lost.

On matchday one, Nianzou will come up against Erling Haaland and Manchester City. The defender is very highly rated, but this will be a massive test of his readiness for regular football at such a level.

Goncalo Ramos, forward, 21 – Benfica

If you believe transfer gossip, there were plenty of clubs ready to prise Ramos from Benfica in the transfer window, but ultimately he stayed put and will be considered Darwin Nunez's replacement this season.

A well-rounded striker, Ramos works hard, is up for a physical battle and is technically proficient. Last season, he scored seven Primeira Liga goals as back-up to Nunez, although his early form in that regard this term suggests work is needed.

His two strikes from 3.9 xG show he's getting into good situations but isn't yet proving clinical – albeit he did net four in Champions League qualifying.

Benfica are in a group with Juventus and PSG, so they'll hope Ramos finds a reliable streak to aid their outside chance of progression.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, winger, 21 – Napoli

The first winner of Serie A's Player of the Month award of the new season – and in his very first month in the league – it's been some introduction from Kvaratskhelia.

He was playing back home in Georgia in the second half of last season after being able to suspend his contract at Rubin Kazan amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. His deal was then terminated by Rubin after it emerged he was subject to death threats after leaving.

Kvaratskhelia had been linked with numerous big clubs but eventually landed at Napoli as Lorenzo Insigne's replacement. They may not be anything alike as players, but that's not stopped Kvaratskhelia having a major early impact with four goals in five Serie A games.

A tall winger who possesses great dribbling skills, he's a player primed to make a statement this season.

Lorenzo Lucca, striker, 21 – Ajax

He may only be 21, but Lucca's fledgling career has already been somewhat nomadic, finding himself registered as a senior player at six clubs – the latest being Ajax, whom he joined on loan with an option to buy from Serie B side Pisa.

Remarkably, the last of his six league goals for Pisa last season came in October, so it's clear the jury is still out and he has a lot to prove, but he has the attributes to be a threat for any team.

Standing at just over two metres tall, Lucca is a giant, yet he also possesses a surprising turn of pace and is technically very good. The Italy Under-21 international has only played 21 minutes with the first team this season, but he has three goals in two games for the second string.

It's unlikely he'll be a key figure for Ajax, but given his skillset he will be a viable option at times – let's just see if he can take his chances.

Matt O'Riley, midfielder, 21 – Celtic

Last season, O'Riley was playing in League One for MK Dons; on Tuesday, he'll likely line-up against Real Madrid. It's been quite a quick ascension for the gifted midfielder.

A product of Fulham's academy, O'Riley left the Cottagers stunned when he rejected a new contract in 2020. He spent six months training with Dons and then signed for them in January 2021 – that saw him exposed to first-team football and a year later he was at Celtic.

The London-born Denmark Under-21 international has enjoyed a wonderful start to the season, with his vision and ball-playing abilities marking him out as a real creative threat and earning links to Manchester United.

How he fares in the Champions League with the step up in quality could prove crucial with respect to his short-term future.

For Erik ten Hag, there was never any doubt. Just three days after arriving from Ajax, and with only two training sessions with his new team-mates under his belt, the Manchester United boss felt Antony was ready to be unleashed in Sunday's meeting with Arsenal.

"He knows the style we want to play and what we expect and demand," Ten Hag, who coached Antony at Ajax in the previous two campaigns, told Sky Sports ahead of United's 2-1 victory. "He can particularly be an offensive threat with his speed in one-on-ones."

The tricky winger this week became United's second-most expensive signing ever at £68million – behind only the £89m paid for Paul Pogba – and made an instant impact with his goalscoring display against a previously perfect Gunners side.

Antony's well-taken strike after 35 minutes at Old Trafford gave United the lead in a game they had otherwise been second best in, with Arsenal – and Gabriel Jesus in particular – looking very dangerous in an attacking sense either side of that opener.

One of the first players to congratulate Antony was fellow attacker Marcus Rashford, who himself netted on his debut for United and also his first appearance in the Premier League, against Arsenal of all sides in a 3-2 home win six-and-a-half years ago.

And while Antony made a big impression on his United bow, this victory belonged to Rashford. The England international assisted the opener and then scored two of his own goals after Bukayo Saka had deservedly levelled for Arsenal in the second period.

It meant Rashford both scored and assisted in a Premier League game for the first time since October 2020 – and at the perfect time, too, with some calling for the versatile forward to make way from the side.

Selecting both Rashford and Antony was a big call from Ten Hag against an Arsenal side that boasted five wins from five prior to Sunday's contest at Old Trafford, the Dutchman changing a winning formula after three victories on the spin with the same XI.

At 22 years and 192 days, Antony became the youngest Brazilian player to score on his Premier League debut, and the first player from the South American country to net on his first appearance for United.

The ninth Brazilian to put on the famous United strip, Antony not only found the net but also lit up Old Trafford with some trademark Samba skills, the highlight being some neat footwork to beat two Arsenal players when seemingly going nowhere and helping to create a big chance for Christian Eriksen.

He played just short of an hour before being replaced by Cristiano Ronaldo – out of United's starting line-up for a fourth game running – and departed with the most shots of any player (three), the highest xG (0.32) and having attempted the joint-most dribbles (seven).
 
It was an inspired call from Ten Hag, who three weeks on from his appointment being questioned by some high-profile names following defeats to Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, is now instead being hailed as a managerial magician.

Time will tell on that front, of course, but the signs in wins over Liverpool, Southampton, Leicester City and now Arsenal have been hugely encouraging. 

Despite a first loss since back-to-back defeats derailed their hopes of Champions League football in the final fortnight of last season, Arsenal remain top of the embryonic table and if not for some contentious calls may well have come away with another victory.

VAR was again at the centre of controversy as a Gabriel Martinelli goal was ruled out at 0-0 after referee Paul Tierney, having being instructed to check the pitchside monitor, adjudged Martin Odegaard had fouled Eriksen in the build-up.

But thanks to Antony and Rashford, this day belonged to United. For the first time in 17 months, they have won four league games in a row and finally have momentum on their side in what is shaping up to be a promising future under Ten Hag.

Having snuck into the playoffs last season, the Philadelphia Eagles were one of the NFL's surprise packages in 2021 but will have to shoulder larger expectations heading into 2022.

A 9-8 record from last year presents a solid platform to build upon as the Eagles seek to wrest the NFC East crown from the Dallas Cowboys.

Their heavy playoff defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round illustrated how far the Eagles were from legitimate contention in 2021.

Philadelphia have made a series of significant moves to put themselves in position to challenge the elite.

Indeed, theirs is a roster that appears among the most complete in the NFL, piling the pressure on both quarterback Jalen Hurts and a well-rounded roster to make the strides that will be anticipated by Eagles fans in one of US sports' most demanding cities.

Can defensive additions pay dividends?

There is obvious room for improvement on Philadelphia's defense following their efforts of last year on that side of the ball.

The Eagles had opponents have a 10-play drive on 38 occasions, with only the Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants having more, while the percentage of opponents converting on third down and short was the highest in the NFL at 74.2 per cent.

As well as struggling to get off the field on third down, the Eagles also had issues stopping significant plays on first down, with opponents passing for at least four yards 59.4 per cent of the time, again the highest rate in the NFL, while opposing offenses found the endzone on 45 of 74 drives on which Philadelphia allowed them inside the 30-yard line. Only the Las Vegas Raiders (61.2) allowed a touchdown on a higher percentage of such drives than the Eagles (60.8).

Philadelphia focused a lot of energy on improving performance in both of those areas.

The Eagles traded up in the first round of the draft for Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, who at 6ft 6in and 341 pounds put on one of the most remarkable displays of athleticism the Scouting Combine has seen.

Davis will look to be an immediate force against the run and use his massive frame to make life easier for a talented group of pass rushers that now includes hometown hero Haason Reddick, whose 23.5 sacks over the last two seasons are the fifth-most in the NFL.

The addition of Reddick is a significant one to a defense that was eighth in pass rush win rate last year, and the Eagles have also done plenty to boost their chances of slowing down opposing aerial attacks.

By signing James Bradberry to pair with Darius Slay at starting cornerback, the Eagles now have the only two players in the NFL to register at least 15 interceptions and 80 or more pass breakups since 2016.

And their recent trade for C.J Gardner-Johnson gives the Eagles an ultra-versatile safety with the ability to play slot corner at a high level. Gardner-Johnson lost 33 of his 111 man coverage matchups last year, his open percentage allowed of 29.73 on the right side of the league average of 30.89 for corners.

The Eagles were a top-10 defense by yards per play allowed (5.20) in 2021 and their additions should theoretically help address the issues that prevented from faring even better.

However, defensive efficiency is famously volatile. Success is no guarantee despite the raft of impressive additions, and that is why the microscope will predominantly be focused on Hurts and the offense.

Will Philly love Hurts after 2022?

More consistency will be the order of the day for Hurts, despite the Eagles racking up 28.5 points per game between Weeks 8 and 18 as they went 7-3 over the last 10 regular-season games.

In 2021, Hurts' pass completion percentage stood at 64.1 from 449 attempts. Of quarterbacks to have more than 300 passing attempts, only Baker Mayfield (63.9), Trevor Lawrence (63.4) and Zach Wilson (58.4) had a lower figure.

Hurts' well-thrown percentage for 2021 was also below the league average of 78.1 for QBs with a minimum of 100 attempts, but that was in part a product of his aggressiveness. He averaged 9.3 air yards per attempt, fifth among signal-callers with at least 100 passes. Among quarterbacks to meet the 300-throw threshold, his average was only bettered by Russell Wilson (10) and Lamar Jackson (9.7).

The Eagles look to have assembled the talent around Hurts to deliver more stable production.

Philadelphia's marquee move of the offseason was to send a first-round pick to the Tennessee Titans for wide receiver A.J. Brown, who offers Hurts a physically imposing true number one option who excels in creating separation. His burn rate, which measures how often a receiver won his matchup with a defender on plays where he was targeted, of 64 per cent and his burn yards per route average of 4.0 yards was tied for the best among receivers with at least 100 targets (inc. playoffs).

But Hurts won't solely be able to rely on Brown. Though he displayed good chemistry with DeVonta Smith last year, Hurts needs his former Alabama team-mate to step up in terms of defeating coverage. Smith burnt his opponent on 55.7 per cent of his 115 targets. Of receivers to be targeted more than 100 times, only seven had a lower percentage.

Tight end Dallas Goedert was Hurts' most reliable passing game option last year, posting a 77.3 per cent burn rate from 88 targets that was the highest of any player in the position to be targeted on at least 80 occasions.

Yet Hurts was at his most dangerous on the ground in 2021, his 80 carries the most of any quarterback. Sixty of those came on scrambles – a tally only bettered by Patrick Mahomes – with Josh Allen (7.48) and Mahomes (6.27) the only signal-callers with at least 100 attempts and 50 scrambles to average more yards per carry on such runs.

His 29 explosive runs of 10 yards or more were the fourth-most in the NFL and nine more than Eagles running back Miles Sanders, who was second among running backs with at least 100 carries with a yards before contact average of 3.65. Sanders, despite failing to find the endzone in 2021, was also fourth in the league in yards per carry on runs that were disrupted by a defender, putting up 4.17 per attempt.

Playing behind an offensive line that ranked fifth in pass protection win rate and second in run block win rate last year, all the ingredients are there for Hurts to be centre stage in what could be one of the NFL's most dynamic and diverse offenses.

The Eagles will be aided by a schedule that sees them face only five teams that made the playoffs last season, but there are potential potholes on their path to contention in the NFC.

Backup tackle Andre Dillard has already suffered a fractured forearm in a blow to the depth on an O-Line featuring a veteran in Lane Johnson who has consistently dealt with injury issues.

While the Eagles acquired one of the league's more underrated coverage linebackers in Kyzir White, there remain doubts over the spine of the defense, particularly at the safety position.

On paper, the Eagles have almost everything required for a deep playoff run, but rarely are NFL seasons straightforward. A season of defensive regression or further injuries to the trenches could leave the onus firmly on Hurts to elevate those around him.

The overarching question in Philiadelphia is whether Hurts can be their franchise quarteback. Given how impressive the Eagles' roster is, it may take some adversity for the team to get a definitive answer.

Serena Williams' long and illustrious tennis career looks to have drawn to a close after the American lost to Ajla Tomljanovic at the US Open on Friday. 

Following a long piece in Vogue last month, Williams wrote of her plan to "move in a different direction" after "these next few weeks", suggesting the tournament at Flushing Meadows would be her last outing.

Thanks to her success and brilliance on the court, Williams has become synonymous with tennis and is regarded by many as the greatest the women's sport has ever seen.

At the age of 40, Williams has persisted with tennis far longer than most do, and that is testament to her quality and enduring desire for success.

Though Williams left a glimmer of a chance that she may yet play again, joking that she "always did love Australia", she may well have taken to the court for the last time. Here, Stats Perform takes a look at the key facts, stats and figures of her career; in other words, Serena's remarkable legacy.

Twenty-three… and done?

Of course, the headline fact for Williams' career is her grand slam titles count.

She has won 23, which is more than anyone else in the Open era.

But she still had one target left: matching Margaret Court. The Australian's 24 grand slam successes include nine won before the Open era began in 1968, though her overall total has been the benchmark ever since she claimed her final crown at the US Open in 1975.

Clearly, victory for Williams at Flushing Meadows would have been the perfect farewell, but it was not to be. Will that near-miss encourage her to take one more shot in Court's homeland next year?

The finals hurdle

Had Williams managed to reach the championship match in Queens, she would have equalled another record.

She headed into the US Open having played in 33 grand slam finals, one more than Martina Navratilova.

But Chris Evert (34) sits out in front, and that record is now set to remain hers for many, many years.

Top of the pile

It's been a while now since Williams was last the highest-ranked player in the world, but in a way that only further highlights how remarkable her career has been.

She's spent 319 weeks ranked as world number one, which is behind only Steffi Graf (377) and Navratilova (332).

While many might have expected Williams to have been top of the pile for even longer, it's worth remembering how she's spent time out due to injuries and pregnancy, with her general involvement in top-level tennis decreasing after 2014 when she played 16 tournaments – in 2016 that halved to eight, and during no year since has she played in more.

Additionally, some will also be surprised to learn she actually only finished the year as the top-ranked female player five times. Nevertheless, that's still third to only Graf (eight) and Navratilova (seven).

Go hard or go home

Such has been Williams' quality, she was always considered a threat regardless of the surface – she's won each grand slam at least three times.

But there's no denying she was at her most lethal on hard courts.

She has won 48 WTA Tour-level titles on hard courts, which is 11 more than anyone else (Graf) in the Open era.

Those 48 come from a grand total of 73 across all surfaces, leaving her ranked fifth behind Navratilova (167), Evert (157), Graf (107) and Court (92).

Surface to say…

Williams' comfort on hard courts goes even further than that.

She's won 541 matches on the surface, making her one of just two female players to surpass 500 victories on one specific ground type.

Navratilova (600 on carpet) is the only other player to achieve the feat, with Serena's sister Venus (498 on hard) the closest to the 23-time grand slam champion.

The grass is greener

Despite that unrivalled excellence, hard courts may not be the surface many feel to be most synonymous with Williams, however.

Wimbledon is the tournament that would appear to be her favourite.

She's reached the final at SW19 11 times. Only Navratilova can better that record for the most finals at one tournament – though it's worth saying she contested the WTA Finals and Chicago 14 times each, Eastbourne 13 times and 12 at Wimbledon.

Serena Williams' long and illustrious tennis career looks to have drawn to a close after the American lost to Ajla Tomljanovic at the US Open on Friday. 

Following a long piece in Vogue last month, Williams wrote of her plan to "move in a different direction" after "these next few weeks", suggesting the tournament at Flushing Meadows would be her last outing.

Thanks to her success and brilliance on the court, Williams has become synonymous with tennis and is regarded by many as the greatest the women's sport has ever seen.

At the age of 40, Williams has persisted with tennis far longer than most do, and that is testament to her quality and enduring desire for success.

Though Williams left a glimmer of a chance that she may yet play again, joking that she "always did love Australia", she may well have taken to the court for the last time. Here, Stats Perform takes a look at the key facts, stats and figures of her career; in other words, Serena's remarkable legacy.

Twenty-three… and done?

Of course, the headline fact for Williams' career is her grand slam titles count.

She has won 23, which is more than anyone else in the Open era.

But she still had one target left: matching Margaret Court. The Australian's 24 grand slam successes include nine won before the Open era began in 1968, though her overall total has been the benchmark ever since she claimed her final crown at the US Open in 1975.

Clearly, victory for Williams at Flushing Meadows would have been the perfect farewell, but it was not to be. Will that near-miss encourage her to take one more shot in Court's homeland next year?

The finals hurdle

Had Williams managed to reach the championship match in Queens, she would have equalled another record.

She headed into the US Open having played in 33 grand slam finals, one more than Martina Navratilova.

But Chris Evert (34) sits out in front, and that record is now set to remain hers for many, many years.

Top of the pile

It's been a while now since Williams was last the highest-ranked player in the world, but in a way that only further highlights how remarkable her career has been.

She's spent 319 weeks ranked as world number one, which is behind only Steffi Graf (377) and Navratilova (332).

While many might have expected Williams to have been top of the pile for even longer, it's worth remembering how she's spent time out due to injuries and pregnancy, with her general involvement in top-level tennis decreasing after 2014 when she played 16 tournaments – in 2016 that halved to eight, and during no year since has she played in more.

Additionally, some will also be surprised to learn she actually only finished the year as the top-ranked female player five times. Nevertheless, that's still third to only Graf (eight) and Navratilova (seven).

Go hard or go home

Such has been Williams' quality, she was always considered a threat regardless of the surface – she's won each grand slam at least three times.

But there's no denying she was at her most lethal on hard courts.

She has won 48 WTA Tour-level titles on hard courts, which is 11 more than anyone else (Graf) in the Open era.

Those 48 come from a grand total of 73 across all surfaces, leaving her ranked fifth behind Navratilova (167), Evert (157), Graf (107) and Court (92).

Surface to say…

Williams' comfort on hard courts goes even further than that.

She's won 541 matches on the surface, making her one of just two female players to surpass 500 victories on one specific ground type.

Navratilova (600 on carpet) is the only other player to achieve the feat, with Serena's sister Venus (498 on hard) the closest to the 23-time grand slam champion.

The grass is greener

Despite that unrivalled excellence, hard courts may not be the surface many feel to be most synonymous with Williams, however.

Wimbledon is the tournament that would appear to be her favourite.

She's reached the final at SW19 11 times. Only Navratilova can better that record for the most finals at one tournament – though it's worth saying she contested the WTA Finals and Chicago 14 times each, Eastbourne 13 times and 12 at Wimbledon.

The AFC West has been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs in recent seasons, with six division titles in succession.

In fact, if the Chiefs can extend that streak to seven, they will tie each of the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on 15 division titles.

Unfortunately for those in Kansas City, their rivals appear especially determined to ensure this year is different.

No division has prompted as much intrigue during the offseason as the AFC West, which has appeared at the centre of numerous big trades as its pretenders attempt to become contenders.

So hard to split is the division that Stats Perform has not even attempted to try – instead explaining what needs to happen for each of these teams in turn to be successful...

Kansas City Chiefs

After topping the AFC West in six straight seasons, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Chiefs can be toppled in 2022: Patrick Mahomes is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career, Tyreek Hill is gone, and the competition in the division is intense.

Yet those are also three reasons why Mahomes will be determined to lead the Chiefs to another strong year.

One of the game's leading lights will hope the 2021 season, with its 3-4 start and hugely disappointing finish in the AFC Championship Game, does not live long in the memory, but his attempts to move on swiftly could easily be hampered by the departure of WR1 Hill to the Miami Dolphins.

However, tight end Travis Kelce – the career leader in Mahomes targets (540), completions (383) and passing yards (4,960) – remains in Kansas City, and the quarterback has the ability to make a partnership work with any receiver.

Mahomes just needs time, and that is what he can expect to get behind one of the best offensive lines in the game.

The Chiefs rebuilt their O-line last year, and they ranked third in the NFL in pass protection win percentage (80.16) in 2021. Crucially, that unit improved as the season went on; the six games in which Mahomes faced the most pressures were all before the Week 12 bye.

Mahomes' pass completion rate of 77.4 per cent when not pressured ranked second among QBs with 100 or more attempts last season; this dropped to 56.7 per cent when pressured – only marginally above the league average in such scenarios (56.6).

Widely considered the most talented passer of his generation, the Chiefs have focused on protecting Mahomes rather than worrying about who he is throwing to, and that should be a safe bet despite his postseason wobble.

Las Vegas Raiders

As one elite receiver leaves the AFC West in Hill, another arrives. Davante Adams has quit the Green Bay Packers to bring his star power to Vegas.

Since his rookie season, Adams ranks fifth in the NFL for catches (669), sixth for receiving yards (8,121) and second for receiving touchdowns (73), although he has spent his entire career playing with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Now, Adams will be paired with zero-time MVP Derek Carr, who threw for 23 TDs and 14 interceptions last year, ranking 24th in touchdown percentage (3.7). Rodgers, by comparison, threw for 37 scores and four picks, with his 7.0 TD percentage the best in the league.

Yet Carr will surely benefit from having Adams to throw to. He saw 25 passes dropped in 2021 – tied for the third-most in the NFL – and a solid completion percentage of 68.4 could have been better, as his expected completion percentage of 74.5 trailed only Mahomes (75.9).

Carr is clearly an accurate passer; he just needs a little help turning this talent into tangible rewards.

Adams is the ideal man to do that, with the duo teaming up previously for two years at Fresno State, in which time the receiver's 38 TDs led the FBS by some distance.

Last year, Adams – who dropped a career-low one pass, just 0.6 per cent of his targets – added 633 yards after the catch, fourth-most in the league, and led the way in recording a first down with 49.7 per cent of his targets.

He can have a transformative impact on a team who were already the Chiefs' nearest challengers in this division and will now be overseen by former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach.

Los Angeles Chargers

This division is so exciting not only because it contains four potentially great teams but because it contains four potentially great offenses.

For the Chargers, there are few doubts on that side of the ball. They have largely brought back the same offense that made Justin Herbert a star in 2021 with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history. Of course, the 17-game season helped in that regard, but only Tom Brady (5,316) outperformed Herbert (5,014) on the year.

As a result, the Chargers were fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747).

So, why did they miss out on the postseason?

Well, the Chargers had a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per game (360.1), and only two teams allowed more points across the season (459). That Herbert-powered offense ranked 23rd in time spent on the field, with the defense giving them too much to do in too little time.

There are reasons to believe that will change this year, though, with the acquisitions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson particularly notable for a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league for takeaways (21).

Only three players have had eight or more interceptions in a single season over the past two years; Jackson, one of those three, has done it twice.

No player has ever previously had eight or more picks in three straight seasons, but Jackson has shown no signs of slowing and could be exactly the type of superstar the Chargers need on defense to complement Herbert's efforts on offense and seize control of this division.

Denver Broncos

These might not be the four most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but they may well be the four most motivated.

Russell Wilson undoubtedly has a point to prove after ending a 10-year stint with the Seattle Seahawks that went downhill fast in its final 18 months. In early MVP contention after a 5-0 start to the 2020 season, Wilson went 13-12 over the rest of his Seahawks career.

He last year missed the postseason for only the second time and, according to Seattle, pushed for a trade. "I didn't initiate it," was Wilson's reply. "It was definitely mutual."

Regardless, Wilson will find a very receptive audience in Denver, where Broncos fans were desperate to see an end to the QB merry-go-round that had them in a spin for six straight years after Peyton Manning's farewell Super Bowl 50 win. They have had 10 different starters under center since 2016, second only to Washington (11).

In that time outside the title picture, though, the Broncos have rebuilt the rest of the roster, waiting for the sort of QB-coach combo they now have in Wilson and former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett.

Denver allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game last season (326.1) and the third-fewest points (322); on offense, a better QB than Teddy Bridgewater would have made more use of playing behind an O-line that ranked eighth in pass protection win percentage (78.64).

With personnel changes at the two most important positions, the Broncos can expect to be much, much better than 19th for yards per game (330.5) and joint-23rd for total points (335).

That improvement should take the Broncos from nowhere to somewhere, even in this AFC West.

If there is one thing football fans will simply never be calm about, it is the amount of money their club spends on transfers.

No matter how many new, shiny players their team signs, that brief release of endorphins they get from watching YouTube compilations, checking Twitter for updates and finally seeing some over-produced nonsense of a reveal video soon dissipates and it's on to the next one.

Having said that, you wonder what it must have been like to be a Nottingham Forest fan during the transfer window, which finally closed on Thursday.

Back in the Premier League for the first time since 1999, Forest are determined to cement their place in the top tier.

Whatever anyone thinks about the quality of the arrivals, the club absolutely went for quantity as an incredible 21 players came through the door at the City Ground at a total cost – according to Transfermarkt – of £145.76m. Only Chelsea (£251.09m), Manchester United (£214.22m) and West Ham (£163.80m) spent more in the Premier League.

At the other end of the scale, the spending of the team that finished two places above Forest in the Championship last season, Bournemouth, has been comparatively meagre.

The Cherries committed just £24.21m to incomings, with three of their six new arrivals in the window coming in on free transfers, and one a loan.

Head coach Scott Parker was sacked on Tuesday after making his feelings known on the lack of investment from above after his team's 9-0 humbling at Liverpool.

But which approach is likelier to pay off in the long run? You would think Forest's launching of money at anything and everything will give them a better chance of staying up, and possibly even challenging higher up the table in future, but football is rarely that simple.

Using fees from Transfermarkt, Stats Perform has taken a look at the past 10 years of spending from the Premier League's promoted clubs to see how those who splashed the cash in their first season back in the big time fared.

Forest have, unsurprisingly, spent more than any promoted team in Premier League history.

The only club to have come close was Aston Villa in 2019-20, forking out £143.55m after they got themselves back into the top flight.

While it worked as they avoided relegation, they did so by the skin of their teeth, with the final-day draw at West Ham keeping them safe by a single point.

Their survival was largely down to the brilliance of Jack Grealish, who was already there, though some of their signings that season remain at the club - such as Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, Douglas Luiz and Marvelous Nakamba.

There have only been two other clubs to spend more than £100m in their first season back in the English top flight and both came in the 2018-19 campaign, with very different results.

Wolves' outlay of £101.48m saw them challenging for the European spots, finishing seventh with 16 wins and 57 points, ahead of Everton, Leicester City and West Ham.

Fulham, on the other hand, spent slightly more (£104.85m), but it did them no good at all as they finished 19th and went straight back down to the Championship, leaving them lumbered with a lot of expensive players with big contracts.

They have managed to recover since, and invested £55.26m after promotion last season, but it was proof if it were needed that big spending is not even a guarantee of survival, let alone success.

There have been just five clubs that have spent less than Bournemouth in preparation to make the jump from the second tier to the Premier League since the start of the 2012-13 season.

Two of them came in that campaign, and as above, with mixed results. Reading spent just £9.74m and unsurprisingly went back down, while West Ham forked out £21.51m on new recruits and finished 10th, and have remained in the Premier League ever since.

The same thing happened in 2014-15 as Burnley's spend of £11.36m was not enough to keep them up, while Leicester's outlay of £20.57m is the least any promoted team has spent without going back down in the past decade. A year later, they won the league.

The least any promoted team has ever spent was fairly recently, with Norwich City deciding they would try and mix it among the best in the land in 2019-20 with an outlay of just £7.93m. It did not work.

Those stories do not really allow us to draw any conclusions though, given the vastly differing fortunes between clubs who appeared to follow similar volumes of spending.

That rings true throughout the past 10 years, with some interesting outcomes along the way.

In the 2013-14 season, Cardiff City (£41.23m) spent more money than both fellow promoted sides, Hull City (£27.99m) and Crystal Palace (£29.70m), but were the only one of the three to go back down.

The 2017-18 campaign is the only one in the past decade that has seen all three promoted sides stay up, with each of them spending between £40-60m (Newcastle United - £41.85m, Huddersfield Town - £51.08m, Brighton and Hove Albion - £59.85m).

In the 2020-21 campaign, only high-spending Leeds United (£96.12m) stayed up of the promoted teams, with West Brom (£37.93m) and Fulham (£33.53m) going back down.

However, last season, only low-spending Brentford (£33.03m) stayed up, with Watford (£39.15m) and Norwich (£57.20m) going back down.

Across the past 10 seasons, the team that spent the most out of the three newly promoted sides has ended up being relegated in five of them, while in seven of the past 10 seasons, the team that spent the least of them has been relegated.

So, what can we gleam from all this?

Essentially, spending money does appear to provide a slight upper hand. Those who have spent more have given themselves a better chance of staying up, but arguably not by the extent you would expect, or even to the extent that makes doing so worthwhile.

Those who choose to be more frugal seem to pay for it eventually, apart from those who already had a strong squad or structure anyway, such as West Ham in 2012-13.

As is the case throughout the game, spending money will only work if it is done with intelligence and the players purchased are utilised efficiently.

Forest will be hoping Steve Cooper can continue to control the wheel as ably as he did in the Championship, but for whoever takes over at Bournemouth, this season might be like getting ahead of Formula One cars in a Ford Focus.

As the old adage goes, form is temporary, class is permanent.

It can happen to the best. Harry Kane, for example, scored just once in his first 13 Premier League games for Tottenham last season, before netting 16 in his next 24 outings once he had his mojo back.

Going under the radar slightly given their results did not particularly suffer as they hunted down an unprecedented quadruple, but opposite to Kane, Mohamed Salah's outstanding goalscoring form in the first half of the season for Liverpool regressed after the turn of the year.

Salah scored 20 non-penalty goals in 26 games in all competitions before heading to the Africa Cup of Nations, where his Egypt team suffered an agonising defeat on penalties to Sadio Mane's Senegal in the final.

On his return, Salah scored just five non-penalty goals in 25 outings. The assumption was that the 30-year-old needed a break, and he began the new campaign with a penalty against Manchester City in the 3-1 Community Shield victory and scored the equaliser at Fulham in an opening day 2-2 draw.

However, he has failed to score in three home games against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Newcastle United, with his only other goal so far being a consolation in the 2-1 defeat at Manchester United.

That is not to say Salah is necessarily out of form (three goals in six outings is hardly bad so early in the season) but when he has set such high standards, seeing Liverpool have to so often rely on goals from elsewhere just feels a bit... strange.

Ahead of the Merseyside derby on Saturday, Stats Perform has taken a look at why Salah might not be producing the numbers we so often associate with him in front of goal. And in fact, playing against Everton at Goodison Park could be just the tonic.

Three of Salah's four Premier League goals for Liverpool against Everton have come at the home of the Toffees, with only Michael Owen (four) having scored more away goals for the Reds against their local rivals in the competition.

Salah's next goal in the Premier League will see him overtake Steven Gerrard's haul of 120 for the club.

It is frankly remarkable the goal has not already arrived, with Salah somehow unable to score in Liverpool's win against Bournemouth last weekend, even though almost everyone else did as Jurgen Klopp's men ran out 9-0 victors at Anfield.

He had chances, incredibly missing from close range after excellent build-up down the left in the first half, before controlling a lofted Fabinho pass in the second and firing over the bar.

In the much more difficult 2-1 win against Newcastle on Wednesday, Salah was relatively anonymous in front of goal, having just two shots, with neither on target.

Is this bad form though, or is Salah just being asked to fill a different role by Klopp?

The sale of Mane to Bayern Munich always felt like it was going to have a significant impact, with the Senegalese attacker such a vital part of their forward line in recent years.

Luis Diaz's January arrival looked to be setting the table for the next evolution of the attack, with Mane playing down the middle after the Colombia international came in, but the signing of striker Darwin Nunez at the end of the season seemed to signal a slightly more drastic change.

What would it mean for Salah? Well, so far it appears to have had an impact on his role, even with Nunez missing for the last three games through suspension after getting sent off on his home debut against Palace.

Last season, Salah averaged 56 touches per 90 minutes in the Premier League. So far this season he has averaged just 48, seemingly indicating fewer moves are going through him.

More noticeably, although the season is still very young, he is taking fewer shots than usual. Last season he was taking 4.5 shots per 90 in the league, which so far this campaign is down to just 2.8.

You might think that could be due to being more selective in his shots, but that also does not appear to be the case, with his shooting accuracy down at 33.3 per cent from 59.4 last season.

It is not all numbers going down though, as Salah appears to be on a mission to act as chief creator, having already crafted 21 chances from open play for team-mates in his five Premier League games, already more than a third as many as the 62 he created in 35 league games last campaign.

He made eight key passes in the draw with Palace, four at United and six against Newcastle, more than any other Liverpool player in each game, suggesting Salah is preparing himself for life alongside Nunez, who gobbled up chances at Benfica last season.

The 23-year-old had a shooting accuracy percentage of 62.3 per cent in the Primeira Liga in 2021-22, and a shot conversion rate of 30.6 per cent, compared to Salah's conversion rate of 22.8 per cent in a season in which he still scored 23 Premier League goals.

This could mean that, while not exactly reverting back to being the winger he was at Roma when playing with Edin Dzeko, Salah's job in the team may be evolving from main goal-getter to someone who can either score or create in equal measure, making Liverpool a little less predictable.

In his final season with Roma in 2016-17 before moving to Merseyside, he averaged 2.9 shots per game and created 2.5 chances from open play, not entirely dissimilar to the numbers he has put up in the early stages of the new season.

The plan with the presence of Nunez is presumably to cause one of two things, either lead to the Uruguayan making use of the space left by defenders all rushing to stop Salah, or allow the Egyptian more room than usual as opposition players are forced to keep an eye on his new team-mate.

You will never extinguish Salah's thirst for goals. Breaking scoring records is what he lives for, but as he said recently in an interview with Sky Sports: "I never say before the season [my individual goals]. But the collective one is the Premier League and Champions League. It has to be. That was my target last season and I go again until I win both again."

Whatever it takes to win more silverware at Liverpool, Salah will do it, and don't be surprised if that starts with a return to form against winless Everton.

After all, class is permanent.

When we talk about footballers "returning to haunt" their former employers, conversation generally focuses on strikers – or, at the very least players who score against their old teams.

But Jules Kounde just needs to be present for there to be a degree of longing or jealousy in the air at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan on Saturday, as Sevilla host Barcelona.

The France defender actually left Sevilla on good terms, with the club – and most fans – fully aware they had enjoyed a player of such quality for far longer than they'd ordinarily expect to, particularly when you consider Los Nervionenses' reputation as the selling club to end all selling clubs.

The only real gripe among Sevilla fans was the fee, with the initial €50million – plus €12.5m in add-ons – somewhat on the low side when you consider the other fees changing hands this year. Nevertheless, it was a club-record sale.

Over his three years in Seville, Kounde developed into one of the world's most-promising centre-backs, one capable of getting fans out of their seats, even.

Having finally been registered to play in LaLiga ahead of last weekend's 3-0 win over Real Valladolid, Kounde's second game with Barca sees him return to familiar surroundings – "too soon," some sheepish Sevilla fans will be saying.

Reminder of what Sevilla had

As good as Kounde was for Sevilla, it must be remembered he was very much one half of a partnership. He and Diego Carlos will probably be regarded by many supporters as the best centre-backs in the club's history – they just so happened to arrive and depart at roughly the same time.

Over the three seasons Sevilla had Kounde and Diego Carlos as their first-choice centre-backs, their defensive record was among the best in Europe.

Only Manchester City (57) and Real Madrid (52) kept more clean sheets than Sevilla (51) among teams in the top five leagues. Similarly, just five teams conceded fewer league goals (excluding own goals) than their 94 – including Paris Saint-Germain (85) and Lille (91), who each played at least 10 games less – and their expected goals against (xGA – 115.7) was the seventh lowest. Again, three of the clubs above them played 10 or more games less.

What makes this even more remarkable is that over the previous three seasons, Sevilla's 152 goals conceded saw them rank 51st out of the 74 teams to play at least 102 top-flight games over that period.

Julen Lopetegui's pragmatic, possession-based system undoubtedly helped, and there was a particular subtlety to it that allowed Kounde to really show his strengths.

Fernando, their defensive midfielder, plays deep enough to almost act as a third centre-back at times, and that gave Kounde the opportunities to move forward with the ball, safe in the knowledge he had cover in behind him.

As a defensive triumvirate, there was very little they lacked. Fernando offered protection and positional sense; Diego Carlos possessed great strength and composure on the ball; Kounde provided athleticism, drive and excellent distribution.

With Diego Carlos moving to Aston Villa in June, Fernando is the only one remaining. Sevilla's efforts to replace them had Monchi – presumably as a coincidence – going with another Brazilian-French combination in Marcao and Tanguy Nianzou, but the former is yet to play through injury and the latter has looked shaky alongside the unimpressive Karim Rekik.

In the early weeks of this season, the absence of Kounde and Diego Carlos has been glaring because their excellence at the back helped mask Sevilla's deficiencies going forward in the past. Over the previous three seasons, their 145 goals scored saw them rank 33rd among teams in the top five leagues, but they failed to really address that in pre-season and have begun the campaign with three defeats in four games.

Few would be surprised if Barca pile on the misery.

The archetypal Barcelona centre-back?

Few teams compare to Barcelona when it comes to appreciation of possession, so making the transition to a side that expects to control every single match can be a challenge.

But, theoretically, Kounde couldn't have had better preparation for such an environment. Over his three years in Spain, Sevilla were second in LaLiga for average share of possession at 59.7 per cent, with Barca (65.8 per cent) the only team seeing more of the ball.

The main difference at Barca is likely to be that Kounde is expected to distribute more than before, and that should occur naturally given the Blaugrana's even greater hold on possession.

But Kounde's admirers will hope that doesn't take away from his biggest strength.

Kounde is a defender who likes to progress the ball by carrying it. That's not to say he is a poor passer – he's very good – he just happens to be extremely adept when on the ball.

Across the top five European leagues last season, Kounde's total carry progress of 3,720 metres upfield was the 13th highest among centre-backs. But for the average distance of progressive carries, he ranked as high as seventh (minimum 1,000 minutes played).

These weren't just carries that progressed play by a couple of metres, either. His 159 progressive carries over 10 metres was the ninth most among the same players, while only three centre-backs recorded more carries with take-ones than Kounde's 19.

Put simply, this is a centre-back who likes to get his team on the front foot by taking initiative. He's positive, brave and effective. Considering Ronald Araujo's more pragmatic approach on the ball, Kounde should have the space and support to become a significant influence.

One of the best examples of Kounde's forward-thinking mentality actually came against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey last year, as he embarked on a brilliant solo run that culminated in a wonderful finish.

Kounde was the last of Xavi's major recruits this window, but considering defence was probably the area of the squad that needed strengthening the most, he was arguably the most crucial of the new arrivals.

As he prepares to return to the place where he made his name, Kounde has the perfect opportunity to truly announce himself to Barcelona fans.