The 2021 Formula One title race will be spoken about for years to come.
Max Verstappen took the championship after a quite remarkable Abu Dhabi Grand Prix victory on Sunday, sensationally passing Lewis Hamilton on the final lap.
Stats Perform reflects on the key races in a sensational season.
EMILIA ROMAGNA GRAND PRIX (Apr 18)
A flying Hamilton start hinted at another year of dominance, as he won three of the first four grands prix. He also secured two poles in that run, reaching 100 for his career; at the time of his unprecedented century, the rest of the drivers on the grid had a combined 129 poles.
The first signs of a genuine title tussle came in raceweek two, when Hamilton started from pole but did not win. In the rain at Imola, the Mercedes man crashed just before a red flag for an incident involving current and future team-mates Valtteri Bottas and George Russell.
Although Hamilton recovered to finish second, he reflected on "the first time I've made a mistake in a long time" as Verstappen got off the mark.
AZERBAIJAN GRAND PRIX (Jun 6)
Verstappen responded to Hamilton's strong form with his own run of four wins in five races, although he also endured frustration in the one grand prix over that stretch that escaped his grasp.
The second real moment of genuine drama in this increasingly exciting battle saw Verstappen's tyre blow out as he was coasting to victory in Baku, even if team-mate Sergio Perez was the man to profit.
Red Bull found further consolation in Hamilton's result: a miserable P15. However, that pointless return was not necessarily a surprise to the defending champion, who had forecast problems after a seventh-placed finish at the previous street race in Monaco.
BRITISH GRAND PRIX (Jul 18)
This back-and-forth came to a head at Silverstone. Verstappen's first career sequence of three victories in a row had opened up a 32-point gap to Hamilton, while Mercedes were on their worst winless run (five races) of the hybrid era, but the first high-profile contact between the two contenders slowed the Dutchman's momentum.
Verstappen won the inaugural sprint race but did not last a lap of the main event, sent into the barriers by Hamilton's attempted overtake at Copse Corner.
While Hamilton went on to triumph and close to within eight points – despite a 10-second penalty – Red Bull team principal Christian Horner fumed at his "dirty driving", which he claimed cost the team £1.8million. Red Bull's appeal for a harsher punishment was rejected.
BELGIAN GRAND PRIX (Aug 29)
P2 in Hungary after Silverstone had given Hamilton a narrow lead heading into the mid-season break, but the resumption at Spa did not go at all as the Silver Arrows superstar would have planned.
Woeful conditions meant a delayed race started behind the safety car before being red-flagged after two laps and then called off, with enough of the grand prix completed to award half points – a decision described by third-placed Hamilton as "all a money scenario".
Verstappen had pipped Russell to pole and so was granted a precious victory in this season of fine margins.
ITALIAN GRAND PRIX (Sep 12)
Verstappen nudged ahead of Hamilton again prior to the Italian GP and protected that position in the race – albeit in unorthodox fashion.
Neither Verstappen nor Hamilton finished the grand prix after the Dutchman caught the kerb when looking to pass his rival and landed on top of the Mercedes, with the halo protecting its driver.
"I am so grateful I am still here," Hamilton said afterwards, with Verstappen handed a grid penalty for the next race. The Red Bull man still extended his advantage thanks to P2 in Monza's sprint race.
RUSSIAN GRAND PRIX (Sep 26)
Events in Sochi summed up the unpredictable nature of this season, with momentum swinging to and fro throughout the weekend, kickstarted by Red Bull's call to change Verstappen's engine and have him line up at the back of the grid.
Hamilton started in fourth after a pit-lane crash in qualifying but put himself in position to steal victory when poleman Lando Norris span off three laps from the end in yet more treacherous conditions.
That meant a long-awaited 100th F1 triumph for Hamilton – in his 281st race – but secured only a marginal lead over Verstappen, who brilliantly battled back to P2.
SAO PAULO GRAND PRIX (Nov 14)
The tour of the Americas had put Verstappen firmly back in control prior to the final Brazil leg, having held off Hamilton at the last in the United States before easing to victory in Mexico. He looked on course for more joy in Sao Paulo, too.
Hamilton was already set to serve a five-place grid penalty when his qualifying time – the fastest on the grid – was struck off for a DRS infringement, meaning he had to start from 10th even after recovering from 20th to fifth in the sprint race, in which Verstappen claimed P2.
Sensationally, Hamilton roared back to win ahead of Verstappen, who escaped punishment for forcing his rival wide early in the race. These various factors counting against Hamilton "woke up the lion", Toto Wolff later claimed.
SAUDI ARABIAN GRAND PRIX (Dec 5)
With no room for error, Hamilton won again in Qatar and then continued his fine form in highly controversial circumstances in Saudi Arabia.
Hamilton started from pole after Verstappen's qualifying crash, but the spectacle was only just beginning; last Sunday saw two red flags and a succession of safety cars that meant Max could not escape Lewis after taking the lead.
Verstappen twice gave the position back to Hamilton's due to infringements, while he was further punished for an additional flashpoint that saw the Dutchman brake, triggering a collision. Hamilton dashed clear to send the title race into its final grand prix all square for only the second time ever.
ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX (Dec 12)
Even with the pair level on points heading into the deciding race, few could have imagined the championship would be settled in such dramatic fashion. Hamilton looked to be coasting to victory in the closing stages.
The Mercedes man had been ahead of pole-sitter Verstappen since passing him on the start, able to preserve that position despite Red Bull's claims of an illegal early move.
It was the Silver Arrows who were furious come the end of the race and the season, however. The race director allowed Verstappen to take on Hamilton at the last, snatching victory on the final lap of the campaign – this tying the latest date in the calendar a title has been settled.
Lewis Hamilton won’t be swayed by haters as he looks forward to Ferrari switch
Lewis Hamilton said “people continue to talk s***” about him amid his worst start to a Formula One season.
The 39-year-old has scored just 10 points from the opening four rounds following his Mercedes team’s misfiring campaign.
Hamilton has failed to finish in the top six so far, and crossed the line a distant ninth at the last round in Japan a fortnight ago.
Hamilton, who is moving to Ferrari next year, was asked if Mercedes’ early-season troubles vindicated his decision to quit the team, which carried him to six of his record-equalling seven world championships.
“I don’t feel like I need my decision vindicating,” he said. “I know what is right for me, and that hasn’t changed from the moment I made the decision.
“There’s not been a moment that I’ve questioned it, and I’m not swayed by other people’s comments.
“Even today, there’s people continuing to talk s***, and that will continue on for the rest of the year.
“I’ll have to just do what I did the previous time (when he moved to Mercedes from McLaren). Only I can know what’s right for me, and this (joining Ferrari) will be an exciting time for me.”
Hamilton, who was speaking ahead of this weekend’s Chinese Grand Prix – the first staged here since 2019 – was asked what he meant by “people taking s***”.
“Just read what’s out there,” he replied.
Hamilton will be 40 when he makes his debut for Ferrari in Australia next March.
Fernando Alonso announced last week that he will remain in the sport beyond his 45th birthday after agreeing a contract extension with Aston Martin. The Spaniard, 43 in July, will become the oldest driver of the modern era.
And Hamilton added: “I’m going to be racing for quite some time still, right into my 40s, so it’s definitely good Fernando is still around and keeps going on for a bit longer.
“I never thought I’d be racing into my 40s. I’m pretty sure I said I wouldn’t. But life is such a crazy trick. I don’t feel like I’m nearing 40. I feel like I’m pretty young.
“It’s a real positive that Fernando is staying because it means I’m not the oldest driver here.
“But also Fernando is one of the best drivers we’ve had in the sport so for him to continue to be here and continue to have the output that he’s had just shows what’s possible.”
Hamilton, who has won a record six times in China, will be back on track on Friday in qualifying for the first sprint round of the season.
In a rejig of the format this year, the grid for Sunday’s main event will now be determined after the 19-lap race which gets under way at 11:00am (4am BST) on Saturday.
Haaland, Palmer, Watkins? Assessing the Premier League's Golden Boot candidates
There is a thrilling three-horse race for the Premier League title as we approach the run-in, but there is also another tussle on the cards.
The Golden Boot is up for grabs, with Erling Haaland having not quite hit the same heights as he did last season, when he broke the Premier League record for goals, with 36.
Manchester City star Haaland is, as it stands, level with his former club-mate Cole Palmer at the top of the competition’s scoring charts, with 20 goals apiece.
Palmer, who will go up against his old club in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend, moved way up in the charts after he netted four times in Chelsea’s 6-0 rout of Everton on Monday.
But with Palmer and Haaland in FA Cup action, there are plenty of other Golden Boot candidates looking to take advantage and nudge themselves to the front of the pack.
Using Opta data, we assess the numbers behind the players vying for this individual accolade.
Erling Haaland (20)
Sure, Haaland might not quite have scaled the same heights as last season, but he has still scored 20 goals in 26 league games, scoring a goal every 109 minutes on average.
However, the Norwegian has actually underperformed his expected goals (xG) of 23.7 – that 3.7 differential is actually the biggest xG underperformance of any player on this list.
What about Haaland’s expected goals on target (xGOT)? That metric can be used to measure the quality of a player’s finishing, and Haaland’s xGOT of 20.3 suggests the 23-year-old is about on track based on where he has been placing his shots.
Haaland has also chipped in with five assists, giving him an overall goal contributions tally of 25. He has created 28 goalscoring chances for team-mates across the campaign.
Of course, Haaland is a penalty box poacher – 16 of his goals have come from inside the area, while 14 of them have come with his stronger left foot.
Cole Palmer (20)
Palmer has stolen the show this season for Chelsea, and is arguably the Blues’ driving force behind their push for European football.
Having signed from City last summer, Palmer has made an instant impact despite only playing 27 times – he averages a goal every 103 minutes, which is better than any of the other candidates featured here.
He scored a perfect hat-trick in the first half of the demolition of Everton, before adding a fourth from the penalty spot after the break – that was Palmer’s ninth successfully converted spot-kick in the league this term.
Unlike Haaland, Palmer has overperformed his xG (15), with his non-penalty xG coming in at 7.9, while also proving his creative talents with nine assists from 53 chances created, which ranks behind only Mohamed Salah (60) of players featured here.
Those 29 goal contributions are matched by only one other Premier League player…
Ollie Watkins (19)
One goal behind Palmer and Haaland, and someone who will be looking to get ahead when Aston Villa face Bournemouth on Sunday, is England international Watkins.
A deft chip in Villa’s brilliant 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out brought up Watkins’ 19th top-flight goal of the campaign – he is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in a single season in the Premier League, matching Christian Benteke (2012-13).
What separates Watkins from Palmer and Haaland is his minutes per goal ratio – Watkins has netted every 147 minutes on average, which is 44 minutes worse off than Palmer and 38 than Haaland.
However, with 10 assists, the former Brentford forward leads the goal contributions charts along with Palmer. Interestingly, however, Watkins’ assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of just 3.6, suggesting he has been the benefactor of some particularly excellent finishing from his Villa team-mates.
A goal against Bournemouth on Sunday would see Watkins become just the third English player to score 20+ goals and assist 10+ goals in a 38-game season, along with Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists)
Watkins has proved to be a deadly finisher under Unai Emery, though the trick for opposing defences could be to prevent him getting space in the area to begin with, given that all 19 of his goals have come from inside the box. Obviously, that is easier said than done.
Mohamed Salah (17)
Liverpool will be hoping to bounce back from their damaging defeat to Crystal Palace last week when they take on Fulham on Sunday, and key to the Reds’ clinching success in Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour will surely be the form of Salah.
Since sustaining an injury at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah has not quite hit top form, but he has still netted 17 goals across 26 league appearances this term, though five of those have been penalties.
With an xGOT of 18.4, Salah can point to some above average goalkeeping as a reason for a small underperformance.
Creatively, Salah has been excellent, providing nine assists and crafting 60 opportunities, but the Reds will need him at his very best in the run-in.
Alexander Isak (17)
Isak was at the double in Newcastle United’s 4-0 thrashing of Tottenham last time out. He has now scored 12 goals in as many Premier League appearances at St James’ Park this season.
His opener against Spurs saw him become the fourth player to score in six consecutive Premier League home matches for Newcastle, with only Andrew Cole (eight) and Alan Shearer (15) having longer such runs, with Isak now level with Les Ferdinand’s best such run. The only other Swede to have netted as many Premier League goals in a single campaign as Isak has this term is the great Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 17 times for Manchester United in 2016-17.
Only Palmer has a better minutes per goal ratio than Isak (104) of the players on this list, while he has overperformed his xG by 1.1.
Isak has not provided quite as much creatively as others on this list, providing just one assist, but his 28.3 per cent shot conversion rate tops this list by some distance, with Palmer (24.4) next best.
Dominic Solanke (17)
Another player on 17 goals, and the final selection here, is Bournemouth talisman Solanke.
His 18.1 per cent shot conversion rate may short fall of the other stars on this list, but Solanke is having a fantastic season, having become Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer in a single campaign, surpassing Joshua King’s tally of 16 from the 2016-17 season.
Only one of Solanke’s strikes has come from the spot, with the 26-year-old outperforming his 15.7 non-penalty xG, though his minutes per goal ratio of 167 is quite a stark drop-off from most of his Golden Boot rivals.
The Chasing Pack
Former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min (15), Jarrod Bowen (15), Bukayo Saka (14) and Phil Foden (14) are all well in the hunt.
The fact that 10 players are within six goals of each other shows just how tight this Golden Boot race is shaping up to be, though the chasing pack are running out of time if they are to make a late push for the award.
Premier League relegation battle: Crucial weekend in the scrap for survival
While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.
And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.
On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.
At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.
Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.
Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.
And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.
Let’s work from the top down.
Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.
The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.
It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.
Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).
According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).
The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.
Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.
And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.
Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.
Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.
With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.
Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.
Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.
Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.
That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.
Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.
That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.
What about the bottom two?
Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.
There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.
Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.
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