A new Formula One season is upon us and the 2023 campaign will be the longest in the history of the elite motorsport class.
The number of races is rising to 23, with Las Vegas joining the show, though drama will not be limited to the track.
Two seasons ago, the controversial conclusion to the campaign in Abu Dhabi was a dominant story, while last year saw Red Bull's budget cap breach and an Oscar Piastri fight between Alpine and McLaren, as well as frustrations with governing body the FIA, notably over the drivers' freedom of expression.
Get set for sporting theatre to unfold over the course of the season ahead, though the biggest talking point centres around whether anyone can dethrone Red Bull.
Red Bull gives you wins
Max Verstappen finished at the front in 15 of 22 races last season, setting a record for the most triumphs in a single campaign, and he has won over half of the events in the past two years (25 wins from 44 races).
While pre-season testing never offers a full indication of what lies ahead, Red Bull's strength was still evident and the consensus is that the defending champions will begin the campaign with an advantage over their rivals.
If that gap cannot be reduced, the biggest threat to a third consecutive crown for Verstappen may come from team-mate Carlos Perez. Should that happen, tempers may flare as they did in Sao Paulo in November when Verstappen refused a team order to allow the Mexican through.
One aspect that may provide hope to Red Bull's rivals is the punishment issued for the budget cap breach, which included a 10 per cent reduction in aerodynamic testing allowance for 12 months. While it came too late to have a major implication on the overall develop of this year's car, it could restrict the team's ability to fix any issues that arise.
Ferrari's fight to the front
A season that offered so much promise for Ferrari last term ultimately fell away through mistakes in race strategy and engine failures, the latter of which resulted in the team having to run in a low-power mode to avoid further woes.
Charles Leclerc certainly has the ability to go head to head with perennial rival Verstappen, who he has raced since his junior days, while Carlos Sainz got his long-awaited maiden F1 win at Silverstone last year.
The appointment of Fred Vasseur as team principal, replacing Mattia Binotto, hands the Scuderia an experienced head on the pit wall and may result in fewer questionable calls in race strategy.
Ferrari are confident they can mount a challenge this season and, even though Leclerc has conceded Red Bull may start with an advantage, he believes the Prancing Horse can respond.
"The target is still [to win the title]. Even if we are starting a bit of the back foot compared to them in terms of performance, I'm sure we can come back," Leclerc told Sky Sports.
Mercedes on a mission
Any hopes of a Mercedes revival in 2023 appear to have stalled already, with testing performances suggesting the team may have to look over their shoulders at those chasing from behind rather than competing at the top.
Mercedes' design continues to divide opinion, with a zero-pod approach being vastly different to their rivals and leading to questions about whether they have stuck to their guns out of pride rather than sporting merit.
With Lewis Hamilton behind the wheel, there is always a chance and the Briton will be determined to come back and add to his record 103 race wins having failed to secure a victory last season – the first campaign in his career when he has not registered a win.
The seven-time world champion was outperformed by team-mate George Russell last season, however. Russell secured a maiden race win in the penultimate race and offered consistency throughout the campaign.
Best of the rest
The biggest surprise of the testing weekend in Bahrain was the pace shown by Aston Martin who, with the addition of Fernando Alonso, have a driver who could mount a serious threat to the bigger guns on the grid.
Though a third world title for the Spaniard may be a stretch, regular podiums and dethroning one of the big three in the constructors' championship is certainly an achievable goal.
At Alpine, great care will be taken to ensure French compatriots Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon do not find themselves butting heads, with a frosty relationship over the years, while McLaren have already admitted they missed their development targets and start on the back foot as a result.
Andreas Seidl, now at the helm of Alfa Romeo-Sauber, enters with high expectations ahead of the team's transition into Audi in 2026, while AlphaTauri's long-term future continues to be questioned despite assurances Red Bull will not sell their second-string team.
Expect the season to also see further rumblings regarding new additions to the grid, with Porsche and Andretti among those pushing to join.
As ever, there is plenty to watch out for in F1 and from the first corner to the last there are likely to be surprises along the way.
The Numbers Game: Ten Hag searches for much-needed turnaround at Villa Park
Manchester United are in desperate need of a Premier League win when they take on Aston Villa on Sunday.
The pressure has piled on Erik ten Hag after last week's sorry 3-0 loss at Tottenham.
United have lost three of their six league fixtures this season, winning just twice - against Southampton and Fulham - while they have lost their last two home matches in the top flight by an aggregate score of 6-0.
Their tally of seven points is their joint-fewest after six games of any Premier League season (two wins, one draw, three losses), having made identical starts under David Moyes in 2013-14 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020-21.
They now face another of the league's top teams when they take on Villa, who are fresh from their Champions League triumph over Bayern Munich and unbeaten in four league matches.
United, meanwhile, were forced to settle for a 3-3 draw at Porto in the Europa League, with Harry Maguire's late leveller doing little to ease the pressure on Ten Hag.
Here, we crunch the numbers and dive into the Opta insights ahead of Sunday's clash.
What's expected?
As far as home defeats in the Manchester rain go, last week's capitulation against Spurs was as bad as they get.
Ten Hag looked on miserably as United, who were reduced to 10 men when Bruno Fernandes was sent off late in the first half (that red card has now been rescinded), were carved open time and time again.
Spurs generated a huge expected goals (xG) figure of 4.59 on Sunday – the third-highest United have allowed a Premier League opponent since such records began in 2009. Only versus Arsenal in December 2017 (a 3-1 win) and against Man City in October 2011 (a memorable 6-1 loss at Old Trafford), have United given up a greater quality of chances in a Premier League match.
United also saw their opponents have nine big chances – only in five previous games in Premier League history has a team had more big chances in one game (Man City v Watford 2019-20, Man Utd v Sunderland 2012-13, Arsenal v Fulham 2018-19, Arsenal v Stoke City 2015-16, Man City v Crystal Palace 2017-18 – all 10).
Villa, on the other hand, have won both of their Champions League games without conceding a goal, and though Ipswich Town fought back to draw 2-2 with them last weekend, Unai Emery's team have enjoyed a fine start to the campaign.
They have picked up 13 points in their opening six Premier League matches this season (four wins, one draw, one defeat), their best start to a season since 2008-09 under Martin O’Neill (also 13 points).
As such, it's no surprise to see Opta's supercomputer makes Villa the favourites with a 42% win probability, albeit the gap is perhaps not as big as one might expect. United came out on top in 33.2% of the model's simulations, while the threat of a draw is 24.8%.
And it is worth noting that United have a great record against the Villans.
United have won 40 Premier League games against Villa, with only the Red Devils themselves beating an opponent more often in the competition's history (41 vs Everton).
Villa have won just one of their last 25 Premier League home games against Manchester United (eight draws, 16 losses), with that victory coming in Emery's first game in charge of the club in November 2022 (3-1).
Duran's hungry like a wolf
Forgive the quite abysmal Duran Duran reference, but Villa's fans are surely going to be pulling out the 1980s hits this season if their super-sub forward Jhon Duran continues to thrive as he is right now.
Duran scored a brilliant lob to see off Bayern in midweek, taking his tally of goals for the season to five in all competitions - all of those have come from the bench. His four league strikes have come from just 2.1 xG.
He has also netted four league goals in his last four league appearances at Villa Park, all as a substitute.
The 20-year-old averages a goal every 43 minutes at Villa Park in the competition, the second-best ratio by a player at a single venue (250+ minutes played there), behind Luis Suarez at Carrow Road (a goal every 38 minutes).
Duran is averaging a goal every 39 minutes this season in the league - in comparison, 10-goal Erling Haaland averages one every 54 minutes.
The Colombian has had just 10 shots in the league this term, so he has a 40% shot-conversion rate, the best rate in the competition of any player to score more than three times.
With such a quality talent in reserve, Villa's attack will surely be licking their lips if they can get at United's defence in the same way Spurs did.
Since Emery's first Premier League game in charge, only Man City (85), Liverpool (84) and Arsenal (81) have picked up more home points than Villa (74).
Among Villa managers to take charge of five or more home top-flight matches, only European Cup-winning boss Tony Barton (70%, won 37/53) has a better home win percentage than Emery (66%, won 23/35).
Leaking like Old Trafford's roof
United have actually kept successive away clean sheets in the league, winning 3-0 against Southampton and drawing 0-0 with Crystal Palace. They last kept three away clean sheets in a row in March 2021.
However, United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O'Neil and Sean Dyche (nine each).
United so often leave wide open spaces in midfield and huge gaps in defence, with defenders isolated in one-v-ones.
Despite conceding only eight goals, United have an xG against of 11.04 so far in the league this season – that is the fifth-worst total in the league, lower than only the three promoted clubs and Brentford.
That is despite United allowing just 74 shots, which ranks ninth in the top flight. However, United’s average per-shot xGA is 0.14, which is the second-worst in the league, after Brighton (0.17).
Ten Hag has to find a defensive formula that works if United are to get something out of this game.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Aston Villa - Ollie Watkins
While the limelight is on Duran, it is worth mentioning that Watkins has also scored four Premier League goals this term.
Watkins has been involved in 55 goals in 67 Premier League appearances under Emery for Aston Villa (36 goals, 19 assists), with only Erling Haaland (65) and Mohamed Salah (60) scoring or assisting more goals in that time. The former Brentford attacker is looking to score in four games in a row for the first time since April 2023.
Manchester United - Bruno Fernandes
United will be delighted Fernandes will be available for this game. He was set to miss just his eighth match for the club since his debut in February 2020, with the Red Devils winless in their last four (one draw, three losses) and failing to score in their last three without the Portuguese international in the team.
Fernandes has had 17 shots in the Premier League this season, but is yet to score.
That tally of shots is the most any player who is yet to score this season has had across the entirety of Europe's top five leagues this season.
McConnell confident heading into rounds three and four of Nitrocross Championship in Utah
Jamaican racing sensation Fraser McConnell is gearing up for an intense weekend of action as he heads into Rounds three and four of the Nitrocross championship on October 5 & 6 in Utah.
Following a stellar performance at the season’s opening rounds in Richmond, Virginia, McConnell holds second place in the overall standings, just 11 points behind leader Kevin Eriksson.
McConnell’s dominant showing at Richmond Raceway on September 7 & 8 saw him secure a third-place finish in Round 1, followed by a thrilling battle for first in Round 2.
After clinching the top qualifier spot and winning his semi-final, McConnell started the Round 2 final in pole position. Despite taking an early lead, a dramatic half-spin pushed him off his racing line, allowing Eriksson to take the win. McConnell finished second ahead of Viktor Vranckx.
Looking ahead to the Utah rounds, McConnell remains optimistic about his chances.
“I’m really looking forward to this weekend, going back to Utah, the birthplace of Nitrocross,” he shared.
“It all started there with the Nitro World Games in 2018 and 2019, so it's a very special place for everyone involved.”
McConnell also highlighted the challenge of the upcoming track. “Salt Lake is one of the craziest tracks on the calendar, with the biggest gap jump and a lot of demanding corners. It requires high speed from us drivers. I'll just go out there and hit my marks as usual, trying to extract as much as I can from the car while proudly repping Jamaica.”
With back-to-back podium finishes in Rounds 1 and 2, McConnell is confident about continuing his strong run.
“We’re second in the championship with 107 points, and I’m looking forward to continuing that streak this weekend,” he said.
McConnell currently leads defending champion Robin Larsson by four points and is poised to close the gap further in his pursuit of overtaking Eriksson.
McConnell's season is sponsored by JustBet, Proven, Tru Shake, Rainforest, and the Jamaica Tourist Board.
Reggae Racers Gore, Summerbell secure creditable finishes in race five of ADAC GT4 Germany series
Jamaica’s team of Tommi Gore and Senna Summerbell produced a creditable showing in the fifth race of the ADAC GT4 Germany series as they secured two top-15 finishes at the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg, Styria, at the weekend.
The Jamaican duo, dubbed the Reggae Racers, displayed their prowess as they drove their Porsche 718 Cayman GT4 Club Sport to a 14th place finish after qualifying in ninth position in race one.
They were up with the pace from a strong start but later faded down the track in a fiercely competitive field.
However, the Avia W&S Motorsport representatives improved significantly in the second race, where they went nine places better to place fifth after placing fourth in qualifying.
The team of Jan Marschalkowski and Philipp Gogollok from Eastside Motorsport, finished tops to register their first win of the series. They won ahead of Finn Zulauf and Josef Knopp, also representing Avia W&S Motorsport.
With much positive to take from their performances, Gore and Summerbell will target even more improvements in the final race of the season scheduled for October 18-20 in Hockenheim, Germany.
“I am so happy to be a part of this team and ready to end the year strong. We had a big jump in results from the start of the season with this change, so we can only expect things to get better from here,” Gore said.
The Avia W&S Motorsports team, which currently occupies second position in the team ranking on 179 points, are the defending champions in the ADAC GT4 Series. They are 11 points behind leaders Hofor Racing.
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