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San Francisco 49Ers

NFL free-agency round-up: Nick Foles traded to Chicago Bears

Brady is expected to be announced as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer after deciding to end his 20-season association with the Patriots.

However, his change of scenery is far from the only transaction affecting the NFL landscape. Here, we wrap up the significant moves reported to have been agreed as the new league year began on Wednesday.

 

Nick Foles, who got the better of Brady in Super Bowl LII, is reportedly headed to the Chicago Bears after the Jacksonville Jaguars agreed to trade him in exchange for a fourth-round pick.

The Jags are parting with Foles just a year after signing the former Philadelphia Eagle to a four-year, $88million contract. He will now provide competition for Mitchell Trubisky, whose role as the Bears' starter is under threat after a disappointing 2019.

Foles' departure allows Gardner Minshew to step in as the starter in Jacksonville. Sixth-round pick Minshew outplayed Foles, who was limited to four games because of injury, last year and will now get the chance to prove he is the Jaguars' franchise quarterback.

Brady's last game as a Patriot came in a playoff defeat to the Tennessee Titans, who made the surprising decision to deal defensive lineman Jurrell Casey to the Denver Broncos in exchange for a seventh-round pick. Casey has at least five sacks in each of the last seven seasons.

The Detroit Lions were also involved in the trade market, acquiring safety Duron Harmon from the Patriots. Detroit agreed to a two-year deal with defensive linemen Danny Shelton. Both players have a connection with Lions head coach Matt Patricia from his time as New England's defensive coordinator.

Another former Patriot, center Ted Karras, is staying in the division, signing a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins.

The New Orleans Saints are said to have agreed a deal to bring back safety Malcolm Jenkins after he was let go by the Eagles. Jenkins was drafted by the Saints in 2009 before leaving for the Eagles in 2014.

Their NFC South rivals the Carolina Panthers released safety Eric Reid, while the Atlanta Falcons inked edge rusher Dante Fowler to a three-year contract.

Leonard Floyd will fill the void Fowler's exit left for the Los Angeles Rams, who have re-signed guard Austin Blytheand veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth.

Elsewhere in the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks have brought back former first-round pick Bruce Irvin, the pass rusher who played a key role in their Super Bowl-winning 2013 season. Reigning NFC champions the San Francisco 49ers re-signed center Ben Garland to a one-year deal.

The Los Angeles Chargers may have missed out on Brady, but they have bolstered their defense with the signing of defensive tackle Linval Joseph. Cornerback Chris Harris also intends to sign with the Chargers.

Cornerback Eli Apple will play a part in the Raiders' first season in Las Vegas, while safety Sean Davis is headed to the Washington Redskins on a one-year deal.

NFL star RB McCaffrey agrees to $38M extension with San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey agreed to a two-year, $38million extension with the San Francisco 49ers on Tuesday, making him the league's highest-paid running back.

The new deal keeps McCaffrey, who turns 28 on Friday, under contract for the next four years after he signed a four-year, $64million extension in 2020 following his third season with the Carolina Panthers.

The 49ers acquired McCaffrey from the Panthers via a trade during the 2022 season, and he won the AP Offensive Player of the Year award in his first full season in San Francisco in 2023 after leading the NFL in rushing with 1,459 yards with 14 touchdowns.

He added another 564 receiving yards and seven TD receptions to help the 49ers secure the top seed in the NFC.

In 27 games with the 49ers, he has 2,205 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns to go with 1,028 receiving yards and 11 receiving TDs.

Since his 2017 rookie season, he leads all players with 10,505 scrimmage yards, while his 81 scrimmage touchdowns trail only Derrick Henry's 88.

Known for his bruising running style, McCaffrey also leads all players with 72 runs of at least 10 yards over the last two seasons.

McCaffrey attended the first day of San Francisco's mandatory mini-camp on Tuesday after skipping voluntary work-outs over the last two weeks.

NFL Talking Point: Can Christian McCaffrey justify the 49ers' blockbuster trade?

San Francisco traded a second, third and fourth-round pick in the 2023 draft as well as a fifth-rounder in 2024 to prise McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers.

At his best, McCaffrey can be one of the most devastating playmakers in the NFL. Back in 2019, he became only the third player after former 49ers great Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk to rack up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.

In the two subsequent seasons, however, McCaffrey played only 10 games because of injury and will carry a cap hit of at least $12million in each of the next three seasons.

While he has played every game so far in 2022, giving up that level of draft capital and committing to pay that contract -- though it could be restructured in the offseason -- for a player with McCaffrey's durability problems represents a significant risk.

The 49ers' average of 4.43 yards per carry is 14th in the NFL, though they rank ninth in Efficiency versus Expected -- which compares the projected yards to the actual yards gained or prevented in specific situations -- on run plays.

San Francisco's run game has not produced at an elite level so far in 2022, but it is among the most efficient in the NFL.

The level of compensation paid to land McCaffrey suggests the 49ers believe he can lift their rushing attack to the very top of the league, but can he do enough to justify the outlay spent on him?

Still a potent running threat

Despite playing behind an offensive line in Carolina that ranks 30th in run block win rate, McCaffrey has, through the first six weeks, produced a compelling argument that he is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.

While his 393 rushing yards are only good enough for 14th in the NFL, his advanced numbers illustrate his value running the ball.

His yards before contact average of 2.29 yards is below the league average of 2.5, with that figure a reflection of the disappointing blocking of the offensive line in Carolina.

However, McCaffrey did an impressive job of overcoming the Panthers' futility in the trenches, putting up 2.44 yards after contact per attempt, above the average of 2.05.

Additionally, he is also averaging 3.36 yards per carry on runs where there is a disruption by a defender, again above the league-wide mark of 3.05 and just below that of Saquon Barkley (3.37), who is second in the NFL in rushing yards with 616.

Though the Niners, who possess a young interior offensive line, are just 16th in run block win rate, that still represents a marked improvement on Carolina's performance in that area, indicating McCaffrey will benefit from blocking that will enable him to rack up more yardage in the backfield, rather than having to limit the negative impact of defenders taking advantage of blown blocks to break into the backfield.

Yet his rushing production is just part of the appeal with McCaffrey, with the potential added dimension offered by his significant receiving upside surely a huge factor in the 49ers' decision to part with such a substantial package of draft picks.

The receiving gold standard

Despite battling injuries for each of the past two seasons, McCaffrey still has an extremely strong claim for being considered the premier receiving running back in the NFL.

Since 2017, when he was drafted eighth overall by the Panthers, only the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (3,454) has racked up more receiving yards among running backs than McCaffrey (3,292).

However, Kamara has played 78 games to McCaffrey's 64 in that time and the per game numbers skew heavily in the latter's favour. McCaffrey has averaged 51.4 receiving yards per game across his career, the most among running backs since 2017, compared to 44.3 for Kamara in second. No running back has more receptions for first downs than McCaffrey (174) in that span while only Austin Ekeler (26) and Kamara (20) have more receptions for touchdowns than his 18.

This season, though the Panthers targeted him 43 times in the passing game -- only Ekeler (48) has more among backs -- McCaffrey's production through the air has not been efficient.

He has produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 17 of his 43 targets. His burn rate of 39.6 per cent is below the league average at his position of 47.6, and he has delivered a big play on 11 per cent of targets (the average this season for backs is 12.7).

Yet his final weeks in Carolina were ones with a team clearly ill-equipped to maximise his talents.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan should have no such problems, with McCaffrey likely to benefit from his new play-caller's ingenuity and from playing alongside another of the league's most versatile offensive weapons.

Doubling up on wide backs

McCaffrey may be the NFL's best pass-catching running back, and he is joining the league's top ball-carrying wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, on the San Francisco offense.

Last season, Samuel set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver in a single season, eight of his 14 touchdowns coming on the ground.

When lined up as a running back for a downhill carry in 2021, Samuel averaged 6.58 yards per rush. He recorded 4.11 yards before contact per attempt, 2.67 yards after contact and averaged 4.77 yards per attempt on carries where there was a run disruption by a defender, his remarkable proficiency in the self-termed 'wide back' role fuelling San Francisco's surge to the NFC Championship Game. 

This season, Samuel has 19 carries from the running back spot and is averaging 6.53 yards per rush and 4.61 yards after contact per attempt.

McCaffrey, meanwhile, has lined up as a slot receiver for 20 snaps this season having done so on just 11 occasions in seven games in 2021.

Expect Shanahan, a play-caller for whom disguise is a calling card, to increase that number still further. Samuel and McCaffrey will almost certainly interchange between the running back and wide receiver roles, while split back formations with McCaffrey and Samuel in the backfield are sure to become a staple of the 49er attack.

With McCaffrey and Samuel both a threat to run or catch the ball in such instances, those formations promise to be a nightmare for defenses to decipher and the problems for opponents figure to intensify in 2023 when Jimmy Garoppolo gives way to the dual threat of Trey Lance at quarterback once more.

The 49ers are hoping McCaffrey will provide more explosiveness in the run game, but it is the added diversity for which they are paying such a high price.

McCaffrey's recent injury history makes that cost seem a little more exorbitant but, while in the short term the trade may well be judged on whether this acquisition ensures the Niners again go deep into the postseason, most will forget about the price tag next season if he features alongside Samuel and Lance in a dynamic run game that helps the 49ers stay at the sharp end of the NFC despite their quarterback's inexperience.

NFL Talking Point: Can Lance lift 49ers to Lombardi Trophy?

That is largely because the circumstances in which he takes his first steps as a starter are unprecedented.

Lance was selected by the 49ers with the third overall pick in last year's draft after they traded three first-round selections for the right to move into that slot.

After a rookie year largely spent watching on the sideline, he now steps in to start at the most important position for a team who were minutes away from reaching a second Super Bowl in three years last season, which ended in heart-breaking defeat to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

Young quarterbacks have taken over Super Bowl-calibre teams in years gone by. Aaron Rodgers took over from Brett Favre in 2008 after the Green Bay Packers had agonisingly lost the NFC Championship Game to the New York Giants in overtime.

But Rodgers had spent three years as Favre's backup in an era where spending an apprenticeship on the bench was de rigueur for highly drafted quarterbacks, and he had previously produced two seasons of stellar play for a Power 5 school during his college career with the Cal Bears.

Lance, by contrast, played just one full season of college ball at North Dakota State in the FCS – college football's second tier – back in 2019, losing the chance to add to his experience as the coronavirus pandemic wiped out his 2020 campaign with the Bison, save for one exhibition that essentially served as a pre-draft audition for the dual-threat signal-caller.

A quarterback of such little experience being given the keys to one of the best teams in the NFL is an objectively fascinating situation, one made even more intriguing by the Niners' decision to hang on to Jimmy Garoppolo, his predecessor, after failing to find a partner for a potential trade.

Rodgers did not have Favre looming as the backup in Green Bay. Favre retired, then came back, but was traded to the New York Jets, leaving Rodgers to plot his path to becoming one of the all-time greats.

Lance will be tasked with keeping a win-now team firmly in contention for a Super Bowl title while dealing with the possibility of the man who twice helped the 49ers to the cusp of the Lombardi Trophy stepping in should he struggle.

The flashes Lance produced in his two starts in relief of an injured Garoppolo last season were promising, but with the 49ers set to kick off their new era against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, can he immediately rise to the challenge of leading the NFL's most interesting team on a deep playoff run they hope will end with a sixth league championship? 

An ideal offensive ecosystem

In order to answer that question, it is important to look at just how strong Lance's supporting cast is.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have put together one of the most complete rosters in the NFL having taken over a team in need of a colossal rebuild in 2017.

Shanahan himself is a key reason for confidence the transition to Lance will work. No play-caller in the NFL does a better job of consistently putting his receivers in space and his quarterback in favourable situations, while his diverse running torments opposing defenses year in, year out.

The league's pre-eminent play-caller also has experience of building an offense around a dual-threat quarterback, having done so while working as offensive coordinator for the Washington Commanders under his father Mike as Robert Griffin III produced an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.

Shanahan's play-calling acumen is a critical factor in the 49ers' ceaseless efficiency on offense. The 49ers' offense finished last season ranked first in Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) metric. EVE looks at down, distance, yards from goal, quarter, time remaining and score difference. Using those six factors, Stats Perform trained a model to predict yardage output for any game situation. From there, the projected yards are compared to the actual yards gained or prevented in those situations.

But San Francisco's superiority in that metric would not be possible without a star-studded cast of offensive skill-position players, which Stats Perform AI ranks as the sixth-best in the NFL coming into the year.

Between Deebo Samuel, whose ability to excel as a dual wide receiver-running back inspired the Niners' turnaround from a 3-5 team to one who came within a whisker of an eighth Super Bowl appearance, fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro tight end George Kittle, Lance is not short of targets who will make his life much easier.

A run game that ranked eighth in explosive runs of 10 yards or more in 2021 with 58 – a tally Lance's presence will surely embellish – will also provide him with plenty of assistance, as will a defense that has a compelling case for being considered the league's gold standard.

Stellar defensive support

The 49ers' Divisional Round win over the Green Bay Packers last season perhaps provided the clearest evidence yet as to the value of their outstanding defense.

San Francisco shackled back-to-back MVP Rodgers, limiting Green Bay to one touchdown and field goal in an improbable 13-10 road win against the number one seed in the snow at Lambeau Field.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans called a masterful game as the 49ers' defensive front sacked Rodgers five times, and it is the seemingly endless supply of depth on the defensive line that makes Ryans' group arguably the league's most fearsome.

The 49ers led the league in pass rush win rate and did so while blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL (20.4 per cent). That D-line now heads into 2022 arguably in an even stronger position. Nick Bosa, coming off a 15.5-sack season, leads an edge rusher rotation that is six players deep and includes a rookie, in second-round pick Drake Jackson, whose pressure rate of 24.2 per cent was fifth among draft prospects at his position last year. 

On the interior, the 49ers are hoping former first-round pick Javon Kinlaw, with his hulking 6ft 5in, 319-pound frame, can put it all together in his third season following knee surgery and form an imposing tandem with Arik Armstead, whose 2021 stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 44.34 per cent was fifth among defensive tackles (min. 100 matchups).

Behind the D-line, the coverage versatility of a linebacker core headlined by the game's best in Fred Warner opens a wealth of options for Ryans, yet it may be the additions in the secondary that solidify his defense as the league's elite this season.

The 49ers are starting a fifth-round rookie at nickel corner. That is a frightening sentence on the surface, but Samuel Womack III allowed a burn rate – which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted – of just 33.3 per cent in his final year with Toledo. That was tied for the best among draftable corners. He backed up those numbers with a preseason that saw him record two interceptions.

While the 49ers are hoping Womack's leap to the highest level is seamless, it is the performance of free-agent signing Charvarius 'Mooney' Ward that could determine the ceiling of this defense. Ward's burn rate of 39.8 per cent was the fourth-best among corners with at least 50 targets last year, with the former Kansas City Chief fifth in burn yards per target (7.96).

The acquisitions of Ward and Womack have significantly strengthened the cornerback room. Though there is justified concern about a lack of depth at safety, Ward's arrival may facilitate the 49ers leaning more on the man coverage in which he specialises, enabling San Francisco to blitz up front more often and perhaps even improve their pressure numbers from a year ago.

Regardless of whether the pressure statistics do get even better, it is clear Lance is entering an outstanding ecosystem for a young quarterback. The 49ers have the talent to survive the ups and downs he may experience. The unknown is whether Lance can take advantage of his environment to help this team realise their glaringly obvious potential by enhancing an already excellent offense.

Becoming the 'because of' QB

Lance is a substantial departure from what the 49ers are used to at quarterback, and there are upsides and downsides to that change in direction.

There is no question Lance will significantly increase the 49ers' threat on deep passes. Last season, Garoppolo completed just nine passes of 21 air yards or more across the entire 2021 season. Lance completed four in his 10 full quarters of play as a rookie.

On top of that, Lance's air yards per attempt average of 10.1 was the second-highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

While the downfield passing game figures to be more explosive, Lance will need to improve in one area where Garoppolo has traditionally excelled.

Garoppolo has consistently done an impressive job of leading his receivers to the ball on throws over the middle, setting up regular opportunities for yardage after the catch.

Over the last three seasons, Garoppolo has averaged 6.7 yards after the catch (YAC) on his completed passes, almost a full yard more than his nearest challenger Patrick Mahomes (6.0).

The same sort of accuracy on throws where the receivers can relieve the burden on the quarterback with YAC was lacking from Lance during the preseason, and curbing a tendency to put those passes behind his intended target will be critical for him to realise his potential in Shanahan's vaunted offensive scheme.

But Shanahan is making a calculated trade-off in switching to Lance. The 'gimme' plays Garoppolo can hit with ease may not come as easy with Lance, but the 49ers will benefit from the 'second reaction' plays the new quarterback can make when the pocket breaks down.

Though Garoppolo can make throws on the move, the improvisation factor is significantly higher with Lance, who last season averaged a gaudy 13.06 air yards throwing on the run. 

On top of his threat as a downfield passer in such situations, Lance also put 8.45 yards per carry on scrambles in 2021. Only Jameis Winston (8.67) had more among quarterbacks with at least 10 scrambles.

Lance adds new dimensions to the 49er offense, but he also has shown substantial promise in a staple feature of the Shanahan attack.

Though it was on a small sample size, Lance displayed encouraging accuracy in the play-action game as a rookie. Ten of his 12 play-action throws were well-thrown, with Lance averaging 14.67 air yards on those attempts.

It is far too early to definitively say Lance will continue to be as accurate on play-action over the course of a full season. However, given the effectiveness of the 49er run game, the play-action should still continue to be extremely effective, with Lance's prowess on the ground giving defenders more to think about when he fakes the hand-off.

Former Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks head coach Chuck Knox once said: "There are two kinds of quarterbacks. There is what I call the 'because of' quarterback and the 'with' quarterback. You win 'because of' Joe Montana or John Elway. You win 'with' Phil Simms or Doug Williams."

Garoppolo has produced game-winning performances for San Francisco, but while he has operated the offense extremely efficiently, he is firmly in the 'win with' category. In the biggest games where the team has asked him to put them over the top, he has not delivered.

The 49ers moved up for Lance due to their belief he can be a 'because of' quarterback. He may not perform with the same efficiency as Garoppolo, but he has already delivered showings to suggest he can be the decisive factor for a team who have come agonisingly close to glory. Lance's ability to reproduce those flashes over the course of an entire season will determine whether the 49ers were right in their assessment.

NFL Talking Point: Can the 49ers win the Super Bowl with Brock Purdy?

Now with Jimmy Garoppolo, whom they kept around after attempting to trade away, likely also on the shelf for the rest of the season with a broken foot, the NFL world is left wondering whether one of the best rosters in the league can still go deep in the postseason with rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy at quarterback.

The early signs are promising, with Purdy stepping in for Garoppolo against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 and producing a composed display in a 33-17 win that pushed the Niners' record to 8-4.

An enforced switch from Garoppolo to Purdy, the last pick in this year's draft, is an obvious downgrade, but how does it impact the 49ers' hopes of reaching the playoffs and Super Bowl?

Stats Perform can answer that question by looking at its rest-of-season (ROS) projection.

To generate the ROS predictions, every future game is projected to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. The projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.

The projected win percentages are then aggregated to produce the forecasted standings, which suggest all is not lost for the 49ers.

Still Purdy Good

Purdy was poised, decisive and accurate after replacing Garoppolo, fostering hope he can help keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt despite his inexperience at the highest level.

The ROS projection does not see the Niners winning the Super Bowl, giving San Francisco less than a one per cent chance to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Purdy under center.

However, the 49ers are still given an average win total of 10.5, putting them as the third seed as NFC West champions. With the division rival Seattle Seahawks projected to win 9.76 and end the season as the sixth seed, it would set up a mouthwatering Wild Card matchup.

The 49ers have done most of the hard work in their playoff pursuit and have a dominant defense that ranks first in EVE (our Efficiency Versus Expected metric).

As such, the Niners are still likely to make the playoffs, with ROS giving them a 95 per cent shot. What happens after that is up in the air with Purdy at the helm.

Chiefs Still Reign

The Kansas City Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 dropped them out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, with the Buffalo Bills once again in control of the conference.

ROS, though, expects the Chiefs to reassume the top spot by the end of the season.

The Chiefs are given a projected average win total of 12.8, the highest in the AFC and ahead of the Bills' 12.4.

On the NFC side, ROS does not project any slip-ups from the 11-1 Philadelphia Eagles, who are predicted to win 15.1 games and finish well clear of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles also have an NFL-best 35 per cent chance of winning the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs second at 18.8 per cent. 

If this projection is accurate, Dallas would face the prospect of playing the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card round despite a 12-win campaign.

A dangerous Wild Card

ROS still appears to lack belief in the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals despite a third successive win over the Chiefs.

Cincinnati are predicted to finish second in the AFC North behind the Baltimore Ravens with a projected average win total of 10.42. The margin is razor-thin, though, with the Ravens' total at 10.43.

The Bengals have just a 2.4 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the projection.

Yet with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense catching fire in recent weeks, the Bengals loom as an extremely dangerous potential Wild Card team and the projected addition of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets to the playoffs would make for one of the most fascinating AFC postseasons in recent memory.

By contrast, the recent tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders is unlikely to strike fear into the heart of any NFC contenders. They will renew acquaintances in Week 15, and it is the former who is projected to ultimately win out in their battle for the seventh seed and seal a Wild Card clash with the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants have an average projected win total of 8.3 compared to 8.2 for the Commanders as the projection suggests a losing record will be good enough for at least one team to reach the postseason.

NFL Talking Point: Is there a true frontrunner in the NFC?

Has that ever stopped anyone from making definitive statements about teams and the potential outcome of their season? You already know the answer to that one.

But one thing nobody -- not even the loudest talking head -- can say for certain is that they know who the frontrunner is in the NFC.

In the AFC, plenty are already falling over themselves to crown the Buffalo Bills. An extremely compelling case can be made for the Chiefs and maybe even the Los Angeles Chargers if they can keep Justin Herbert from further injury.

The NFC, though? That's an extremely tough conference to decipher at this early stage.

That is not to say there aren't standout teams. To the contrary, there are six that look to have an excellent shot of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl as they all reside in the top 10 of Stats Perform's power rankings.

Two of them will face off at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers in what could be the final meeting between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who met in the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago. The Super Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams will visit the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of last year's title game in Week 4.

But which of that group has the best shot? Stats Perform has used its advanced data to examine the case for each of the six.
 

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 2-0

Power ranking: 1

The Eagles have firmly lived up to their offseason hype so far, with Jalen Hurts piloting an efficient offense that is the most explosive in the NFL through two weeks.

Indeed, the Eagles are fourth in yards per play on offense while, prior to Thursday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, no team in the NFL had produced more plays of 10 yards or more than Philadelphia's 39.

A.J. Brown, their blockbuster draft-day trade acquisition, has quickly built a superb rapport with Hurts. The former Tennessee Titans wide receiver has registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 14 of his 21 targets and is averaging 8.2 burn yards per route (the league average is 3.6).

The threat Hurts provides in the run game has helped Philadelphia rack up 189.5 yards per game on the ground, second only to the Browns. While a small sample size, the Eagles' early success on the ground is illustrative of just how difficult they are to stop with the diversity of their attack.

There's more reason for doubt on defense, with a three-interception effort against the Minnesota Vikings in which the Eagles allowed only seven points following a 38-35 shootout with the Detroit Lions. Yet a very favourable schedule may not see any defensive failings properly tested until Week 12 against the Packers and allow Philadelphia to move into prime position to compete for the NFC's top seed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 2-0

Power ranking: 4

Tampa Bay's average margin of victory across two games is 13 points. The Bucs eased past the Dallas Cowboys 19-3 and eventually emerged from a fist fight with the New Orleans Saints as 20-10 victors.

Yet it's tough to declare their start to the season as overly impressive, at least by Brady's lofty standards.

The Bucs have scored only two offensive touchdowns as they have battled injuries at the wide receiver position and struggles on the much-changed interior of the offensive line.

Rather than Brady making a hot start to the season he initially decided against playing, it is the Bucs' defense that has led the way.

There were 182 seconds left in their game with the Saints by the time they surrendered a touchdown for the first time this season, with the Bucs conceding only 4.25 yards per play, the third-fewest in the NFL.

Rodgers and Green Bay will provide an early and stern test of their credentials, but there is evidence to suggest the Bucs will eventually have a recipe for a potential second championship run in three seasons.

For all the protection issues in front of him, Brady has delivered a well-thrown ball on 81.7 per cent of his pass attempts and has thrown just one pickable pass in 60 throws. Given the defense's level of play and the weapons the Bucs still have to return, it stands to reason they will soon be delivering much more complete performances that will greatly enhance their reputation as contenders.

Los Angeles Rams

Record 1-1

Power ranking: 3

Thrashed by Buffalo on the night they raised their Super Bowl banner before having to survive a remarkable late scare against the lowly Atlanta Falcons, the Rams do not look like a team ready to repeat.

They still sit third in the power rankings, but there are plenty of red flags surrounding the Rams in this embryonic season.

It is the pass protection that stands as the most pressing concern, Matthew Stafford was under constant duress in the opener and injuries up front have hurt the Rams' cause further, hindering Stafford to the point where he is averaging almost half a yard under expectation in expected passing situations.

With 58 total points allowed, there are clearly vast improvements to be made on defense, too.

However, Aaron Donald already has a league-leading 17 pressures and Jalen Ramsey came up with the game-clinching interception in the endzone against Atlanta, and that often decisive star power makes the Rams a tough team to count out, especially with a game against an Arizona Cardinals team they have consistently dominated on the horizon in Week 3.

San Francisco 49ers

Record 1-1

Power ranking: 5

The greatest threat to the Rams from inside their own division comes from the team who suffered an injury that would have ended the hopes of most teams in the league.

San Francisco lost quarterback Trey Lance in just his second game of his first season as starter in the 49ers' 27-7 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

Yet, by keeping Jimmy Garoppolo around on a restructured contract, the 49ers gave themselves an insurance policy, one that can keep them firmly in the mix even without Lance.

Garoppolo has helped the 49ers to the brink of Super Bowl glory in the 2019 season and the NFC Championship Game last term and, while the Niners' ceiling without Lance is perhaps lowered, the floor of Super Bowl-calibre roster has been raised by the former New England Patriot's return to the line-up.

Though they suffered an upset at the hands of a Chicago Bears in Week 1, the 49ers have one of the most complete rosters in the league and their defense is off to a magnificent start, allowing the second-fewest yards per play (4.08) in the NFL.

It was anticipated the safety position may be a weakness. Instead, it has so far been an unexpected strength, as has an inexperienced and remodelled offensive line that has won 81.6 per cent of its pass-blocking matchups. It will be tough to identify an obvious flaw on this team if the pass protection continues to excel, with the play in the trenches made even more critical because of Garoppolo's long injury history.

Minnesota Vikings

Record: 1-1

Power ranking: 8

Hopes the Vikings could become one of the most dynamic offensive teams in football under Kevin O'Connell were damaged by Monday's 24-7 defeat to the Eagles.

Despite another vintage primetime meltdown from Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have the makeup of a team that could contend to go deep in the NFC playoffs if things break right.

They demonstrated how dangerous O'Connell's offense can be in their opening win over the Packers, with Justin Jefferson weaponised by the former Rams assistant's complex attack.

Even though he was kept in check by Philadelphia, Jefferson's 8.5 burn yards per target are the fifth-most among receivers with at least 10 targets in the first two games.

The offensive line remains a problem, but the early signs are that the Vikings' defensive front will be one that tilts games in their favour, having already registered six sacks for negative yardage.

Cousins is delivering the ball accurately, posting a well-thrown rate of 86.5 per cent and, though there are questions about his ability to perform under the brightest spotlight, a schedule that features 10 games against 2021 non-playoff teams could give the Vikings the edge of their division rivals in the fight to get to the NFL's postseason pressure cooker.

Green Bay Packers

Record: 1-1

Power ranking: 9

The Packers got the poor start out of the way in a Week 1 loss in Minnesota that left Aaron Rodgers visibly exasperated. Normal service was resumed, however, in the routine Week 2 win over the Bears.

Green Bay's problem is that the Packers have a roster in which several holes can be picked. The offensive line has struggled amid left tackle David Bakhtiari's prolonged absence, while the Packers' hopes of fixing their continually porous run defense have not come to pass as yet. They have surrendered 5.56 yards per play on the ground, the fourth-most in the NFL.

Rodgers has yet to build a rapport with a young receiver corps as the Packers look to put the Davante Adams saga and eventual trade to the Las Vegas Raiders behind them. Though the lack of a connection may be more down to a paucity of faith in his inexperienced wideouts' ability to catch the ball, rather than any worries about their success in creating separation.

Second-round pick Christian Watson has recorded an impressive 14.4 burn yards per target on the small sample size of seven targets. With Rodgers delivering a well-thrown ball on 89.3 per cent of his attempts, it might not be too long before Watson becomes a more integral part of the passing game, though the diversity the Packers gain through having running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon on the field at the same time can keep the offense performing efficiently regardless of how the wideouts progress.

Jones, unquestionably one of the most complete backs in the NFL, has produced a big play on three of his eight targets this season, with defenses forced to respect both the run and the pass when he and Dillon line up in two-running back personnel groupings.

The Packers' secondary, despite being shredded by Jefferson in Week 1, is in the top 12 in open percentage allowed while the strength of their defensive line has Green Bay in the top 12 in pass rush win percentage.

Both the front and the back of the Green Bay defense have the talent to rise much higher on those lists and, if such strides are accompanied by Rodgers developing an understanding with his new weapons, the Packers will likely soon have a compelling case for being the conference's elite.

NFL Talking Point: Should the 49ers move on from Jimmy Garoppolo?

That is a question being widely asked in the Bay Area following the starting quarterback's performance in a damaging defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.

The image of Garoppolo leaving the field in the fourth quarter at CenturyLink Field with an ankle problem summed up a campaign in which he has struggled to overcome his own injury and the plethora of other personnel losses that have significantly hurt the 49ers' hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl.

In a season that many saw as a referendum on Garoppolo following his part in the 49ers' Super Bowl LIV collapse, the former New England Patriot has failed to deliver a convincing argument for him remaining as the face of the franchise.

Here we assess the data to look at whether the 49ers should move on from Garoppolo come the end of the season.

More turnovers, less accuracy

Garoppolo's numbers from 2020 do not make for particularly pretty reading. After throwing for just 84 yards and a key first-quarter interception against Seattle, he has 1,096passing yards with seventouchdowns and five picks.

He has thrown an interception on 3.6 per cent of his throws, tied for the fourth-highest percentage in the NFL.

It is also a noticeable jump from 2019 when Garoppolo threw for 3,978 yards, 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (2.7 per cent) and there is evidence of a decline in other areas.

Last season, Garoppolo was ninth in the NFL in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE).

CPOE is a NextGen Stats metric that compares a quarterback's completion percentage to the percentage of throws their model anticipated he would complete.

Garoppolo had a CPOE of 1.7 per cent in 2019, completing 69.1 per cent of his throws when he was expected to successfully connect on 67.5 per cent.

In 2020, that number has cratered to minus 3.6 per cent. He has a completion percentage of 67.1 per cent and has been expected to hit on 70.7 per cent.

Simply put, Garoppolo is turning the ball over at a higher rate and is significantly less accurate than he was in 2020, that is a dangerous combination for a player who has had trouble staying on the field.

A troubling injury history

Injury issues have been a theme of Garoppolo's career since he stepped into the fray for the Patriots during Tom Brady's deflategate suspension in 2016.

Set to fill in for Brady for four games, Garoppolo lasted just two before he suffered a shoulder injury.

He led the 49ers on a five-game winning streak following his trade from the Patriots in October of 2017 but his 2018 season was ended by a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

With the two games he missed because of a high-ankle sprain this season, Garoppolo has been absent for 18 games because of injury since the start of 2016.

That is the second-most among quarterbacks to have started at least 30 games in that timeframe behind only Ryan Tannehill (24), who has put his injury problems behind him and is leading the Tennessee Titans on another surge towards the postseason.

Now out indefinitely with more ankle problems, Garoppolo looks set to take the lead in that category. To use a well-worn NFL cliche, the best ability is availability and, since arriving in the Bay Area, Garoppolo has not been available enough for San Francisco.

When the 49ers come to assess Garoppolo's contract in the offseason, his relative lack of gametime compared to other starters around the league is likely to be something they consider.

Contract could be crucial factor

Garoppolo signed a five-year, $137.5million contract with the 49ers in the 2018 offseason following his five-game unbeaten run to close 2017.

However, the Niners are known for being adept at negotiating team-friendly deals and the Garoppolo contract is no exception.

The 49ers can part with Garoppolo in the offseason and save $24.1million in salary cap space, accounting for a dead cap charge of $2.8m.

In a year where the salary cap is expected to shrink to $175m because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and San Francisco have a plethora of starters on offense and defense set to hit free agency, that extra space would be very valuable to the point where releasing or trading Garoppolo and going with a much cheaper rookie becomes an appealing move.

Garoppolo has played a substantial role in the 49ers' rise back to relevance and key games in their run to the top seed in the NFC playoffs last season were won on his arm.

Yet questions have abounded since a playoff campaign in which the running game was more prevalent and the doubters have not been silenced in 2020.

Between Garoppolo's apparent regression, his injury history and the financial flexibility letting him go would buy the 49ers, there is a strong chance that, if last Sunday was his final game of the 2020 season, it was also his last in a Niners uniform.

NFL Talking Point: Three MVP candidates and 'Mr Irrelevant' – which QBs can get it done?

In the AFC Championship Game, Patrick Mahomes is hosting Joe Burrow in a repeat of last year's matchup, with both men having already been to the big game.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy have each played just two postseason games, green enough both to provoke excitement and concern in equal measure.

Three of these QBs were confirmed as MVP candidates this week, with Purdy the obvious exception as 'Mr Irrelevant', enjoying a fairytale story that would surpass just about any other.

So, which of the four is best placed heading into this weekend, and who can expect to be playing in Arizona in two weeks' time?

Brock Purdy, 49ers @ Eagles

It is safe to say Purdy did not expect to be playing in this game when he was selected with the final pick of the 2022 draft.

Injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo have catapulted the rookie into the spotlight, and he has not disappointed, winning his first seven starts to extend the 49ers' streak to 12 straight victories – a team's longest sequence entering a conference championship since the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007.

Purdy, at 22, will become the youngest QB to start a game at this stage of the season since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, while he is only the fourth to do so having started five or fewer regular season games.

But given this inexperience, Purdy is the one remaining QB who likely will not be handed complete control of the offense, instead asked simply to consistently put the ball in the hands of the 49ers' outstanding skill players.

Christian McCaffrey, like Purdy, has won every start since joining the 49ers in a mid-season trade from the Carolina Panthers, scoring an offensive touchdown in each of his past eight – one shy of both Ezekiel Elliott's 2022-best streak of nine.

Since his first start, McCaffrey ranks third in the NFL for offensive touches (234); since Purdy's first start, he ranks first (136).

Even with McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel each highly effective targets through the air, the 49ers have shifted their focus to the run game with Purdy under center.

They have run the ball on 50.1 per cent of plays since Purdy's first start, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and the highest of any team who made the playoffs. Prior to Week 14, that figure was 43.2 per cent.

It is unlikely the 49ers move away from that now against an elite defense that leads the league by a considerable margin in sacks (75), sack yards (517) and sack rate (10.7 per cent).

Purdy may need McCaffrey and Co. to carry him through this round, but a Super Bowl appearance would only encourage those Tom Brady 2001 comparisons.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles vs 49ers

Hurts' appearance on this stage is clearly not as surprising as Purdy's, but few could have foreseen the Eagles QB as the Goliath to his opponent's David back when the season began.

The third-year star has delivered on his potential in 2022.

Hurts' ability to run with the ball was never in question, and this year his 14 rushing TDs rank third among all players, with Josh Allen his nearest rival at QB on a comparatively meagre eight.

But there has crucially been progress in the passing game as Hurts posted career-best marks by just about every metric in the regular season – 66.5 completion percentage, 3,701 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 1.3 interception percentage and a passer rating of 101.5.

Last week, in the Eagles' playoff opener against the New York Giants, he threw two TD passes and zero picks for a rating of 112.2.

Having missed two games and two Eagles defeats, Hurts heads into the NFC Championship Game with a 15-1 record as a starter this year, no doubt confident of improving that mark further against the 49ers.

In an intriguing battle that pits the league's best run offense (47.0 per cent success rate) versus its second-best run defense (32.1 per cent), Hurts can provide the X-factor.

The 49ers have shown few signs of weakness this year but did so against Marcus Mariota, another running QB, whose Atlanta Falcons ran the ball on 69.6 per cent of plays in Week 6 and were successful 43.6 per cent of the time.

The Eagles will have been watching the tape from that matchup to give Hurts the best possible chance to find joy against an otherwise fearsome defense.

Joe Burrow, Bengals @ Chiefs

Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton dubbed the Chiefs' home stadium, so terrifying for so many visiting teams, "Burrowhead" as Cincinnati prepared for their return in the AFC Championship Game.

Burrow went into Arrowhead last year and got the better of Mahomes, leading the Bengals to a third conference championship win in three attempts all-time.

Although the Los Angeles Rams then defeated the Bengals in the Super Bowl, Burrow has continued to show himself to be the man for the big occasion, taking down the much-fancied Buffalo Bills last week.

He has won five of his first six playoff starts, with only Brady (7-0), Russell Wilson (6-1) and Mahomes (6-1) winning six of their first seven since 1995.

So calm and composed, Burrow is an outstanding passer, ranking second in the league with his 68.2 completion percentage this year and third with his 85.9 well-thrown percentage.

His problem has long been a lack of protection from the Bengals' offensive line, with Burrow taking a league-leading 148 sacks since his debut season in 2020 – a campaign that was cut short by ACL and MCL tears sustained in one hit.

But Burrow took just one sack against the Bills, and the Bengals are consistently doing a better job in giving their QB time to make the pass – albeit with his help.

The Bengals have allowed a pressure rate of just 32.4 per cent this year, the fourth-best in the NFL, as Burrow has taken just 2.46 seconds to release the ball, the fifth-fastest average among QBs with 100 attempts.

It is Burrow's ability to work this quickly while maintaining a league-low pickable pass percentage of 1.53 that cuts him out as a star capable of again going to Kansas City and withstanding all they throw at him.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs Bengals

Mahomes is the one man who cannot be planned for. If he is on his game, there is surely no stopping the Chiefs superstar.

Happily for the Bengals, he was a long way from the Mahomes everyone knows in the second half of last year's AFC Championship Game, and his hopes of performing at peak level will be limited by injury this week.

A high ankle sprain would rule out just about any other QB, but Mahomes, no doubt determined to put right what went so wrong last year, is set to play.

Mahomes completed only eight of 18 passes after halftime in the Chiefs' 2021 defeat, throwing two interceptions for a remarkable passer rating of 12.3.

That was the sixth-lowest rating in the second half of a playoff game this century – not the sort of company the best QB in football is used to keeping.

But that passer rating in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, when Mahomes was playing with an injury, was up at 110.7.

Even as he hobbled around the field, Mahomes was able to finish a fourth postseason game with a completion percentage above 70.0 (72.3) and multiple TD passes.

Only four players – Brady (six), Drew Brees (six), Troy Aikman (five) and Joe Montana (five) – have had more such performances. Mahomes has played just 12 playoff games in his career.

If that is the sort of form the Bengals can expect to find Mahomes in this week, with revenge on his mind, all the focus on that ankle might count for very little.

NFL Talking Point: Which matchups will decide Week 4's biggest games?

Through three weeks, the 2022 campaign has delivered excitement at almost every turn, and there are plenty of high-stakes matchups to whet the appetite this weekend.

There are conference championship and Super Bowl rematches on the docket, as well as extremely intriguing matchups between some of the season's early pacesetters.

But which of the games on the schedule are likely to deliver the best contests? Stats Perform can provide some insight in that regard, using its SmartRatings as a guide.

SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).

So, let's take a look at the three games rated among the most exciting on the Week 4 slate and break down the key matchups that could decide them.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

SmartRating: 67

Win probability: Buffalo Bills (55.3%)

Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Bills linebackers

The Bills only need to look to their AFC East rivals the New England Patriots for a reminder of what can happen when a defense fails to defend 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson effectively.

Last week, Jackson threw for 218 yards and four touchdowns with one interception while rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. He became the first player in Ravens history to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the team's first three games of a season.

Limiting his efficiency on the ground will be critical for the Bills' hopes of outscoring a potent Ravens offense. On designed runs, Jackson is averaging a remarkable 13.47 yards per carry, with his threat as a runner naturally helping fuel the Ravens' play-action game. Baltimore's average of 10.85 yards per play on play-action is well above the league average of 9.15.

In Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills possess two athletic and intelligent linebackers. They will need to display their physical gifts and their awareness to help limit Jackson's impact with ball in hand and ensure they do not bite too hard against play-action and open large throwing windows for him to attack. An evenly matched clash between two AFC heavyweights promises to be a classic, and Milano and Edmunds may have a crucial say in it tilting in the favour of Buffalo.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SmartRating: 75

Win Probability: Kansas City Chiefs (54.7%)

Key Matchup: Travis Kelce vs. Antoine Winfield Jr.

The Chiefs are unlikely to find much joy targeting the Buccaneers outside corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who have each enjoyed excellent starts to the season as they look to gain a measure of revenge for their blowout loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.

Instead, Patrick Mahomes will probably look to his most trusted weapon, All-Pro tight end Kelce, to help him get the Chiefs back on track following their shock loss to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.

Kelce has run 24 routes from the slot this season compared to nine from his in-line tight end spot. Having consistently thrived in the 'power slot' role throughout his career, Kelce will hope to do significant damage from that position while going against one the premier young safeties in the league.

Winfield has spent 63 percent of his snaps this season in the slot but has conceded a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on seven of his 11 targets. He has given up a big play on four of those targets.

With Kelce registering a burn on 18 of his 24 targets, the matchup looks to be in his favour. Winfield must find a way to ensure it isn't if the Bucs' defense is to provide yet more critical support to an offense that continues to struggle.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

SmartRating: 85

Win Probability: Los Angeles Rams 53.0%

Key Matchup: Aaron Donald vs. 49ers' Offensive Line

Even after losing their starting quarterback and All-Pro left tackle to injury, the 49ers are still only seen as slight underdogs in Monday's rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game.

But it is how the 49ers perform up front in the absence of Trent Williams that will likely determine if the Niners can continue their regular-season hoodoo over the Rams.

The Niners have won the last six regular-season meetings with Los Angeles, but the Rams – who finally knocked off their rivals in the game that mattered most – will be confident of ending that streak if Donald and Co. can take advantage of San Francisco sliding Colton McKivitz in at left tackle as Williams' replacement.

Much of that confidence will be based on how Jimmy Garoppolo performs when he is pressured. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 throws under pressure, Garoppolo's well-thrown percentage of 54.5 is the second worst in the NFL.

Donald has already racked up 13 pressures on 40 pass rush snaps and is known for his ability to create pressure from anywhere on the defensive line. McKivitz, right tackle Mike McGlinchey and an extremely inexperienced interior offensive line must deliver their best for San Francisco to avoid falling to 1-3.

NFL Talking Point: Who should be the end-of-season award winners?

On the preceding Thursday, a host of players and coaches will receive recognition for their individual efforts at the annual NFL Honors ceremony.

The candidates for the awards are furiously debated throughout each season, though this year the field has been trimmed for each prize with the NFL releasing list of finalists for the first time.

In the case of MVP, the top two candidates are the quarterbacks facing off in the Super Bowl, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts also going head to head for the game's most illustrious award.

But who does Stats Perform's advanced data say should be the recipients of the prizes on offer at Symphony Hall in Phoenix? Here we name our award winners for 2022, including one not among the finalists who'll be on the red carpet next week.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Though these are regular-season awards, Mahomes' heroics on one leg in the AFC Championship Game were the perfect illustration of why he is the most valuable player in the league.

Even when physically impaired by a sprained ankle, Mahomes can produce magical plays through the air and on the ground in the biggest moments, and this season he has elevated a supporting cast shorn of the downfield threat of Tyreek Hill.

Only Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills averaged more yards over expected in true passing situations than Mahomes' 1.66 (minimum 100 such plays). Mahomes, though, had the edge in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82.1 per cent of his pass attempts, outperforming both Allen (79.7%) and Hurts (81).

Surpassing 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in a single season for the second time in his career, Mahomes was the best regular-season player in the NFL in 2022, and the reality is it wasn't especially close.

Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders' acquisition of Adams in a blockbuster trade with the Packers did not produce the team results they desired in 2022, but individually his debut season with Las Vegas ranked as one of the finest of his career.

Adams' 14 receiving touchdowns led the NFL and, though his 1,516 receiving yards trailed Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, his combined open percentage across man and zone coverage of 52.18 was superior to both Jefferson and Hill.

With 10 touchdown receptions of 20 yards or more in 2022, Adams was the NFL's most explosive receiving threat in a season where he once again reaffirmed his status as one of the finest route-runners of his generation. The Raiders may want to forget this season in a hurry, but Adams' campaign was one well worth remembering.

Defensive Player of the Year: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs

This award will almost certainly go to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers next week, but there's a strong case for Jones as a more impactful defender on a down-to-down basis in 2022.

Indeed, Jones' pass rush win rate of 58 per cent and his run defense win rate of 72.7 per cent outstrip those of Bosa, who finished a season in which he led the NFL in sacks (18.5) with a pass rush win rate of 51.4 per cent and 63.6 per cent run block win rate.

Like his quarterback, Jones shines when the situation is at its most pressurised, with his ability to create pass rush working on the interior and off the edge making him a ceaseless nightmare for opposing offensive lines. If the Chiefs are celebrating under confetti in Arizona next Sunday, Jones will likely have been a big reason why.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Sample size be damned! Purdy not only kept the 49ers afloat after Jimmy Garoppolo joined Trey Lance in heading to the sideline with a serious injury, but helped the offense improve as San Francisco won all five of his regular-season starts as part of a 10-game winning streak to end the 17-game campaign.

Albeit undoubtedly aided by the cavalcade of offensive talent at San Francisco's disposal and the play-calling of head coach Kyle Shanahan — Purdy threw to an open target on 84.7 per cent of his attempts — the last pick in the 2022 draft piloted at an offense that was remarkably efficient in expected passing situations.

Purdy averaged 1.2 yards over expected in true passing situations, fifth among quarterbacks with at least 100 such plays.

Other rookies may have played well for a longer period, but in terms of level of influence on his team's performance, no first year offensive player matches Purdy, who unfortunately now faces a long recovery after tearing an elbow ligament on the first offensive series of the Niners' NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets

Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner backed up his ostentatious nickname by quickly establishing himself as one of the league's premier defenders and a lockdown corner at the highest level.

Gardner lost just 19 of his 92 matchups in man coverage and 24 of his 92 in zone. His combined open percentage allowed of 18.8 was bettered by only four defenders across the  entire NFL.

In addition to his remarkably impressive coverage skills, Gardner showed a knack for finding the football in the air, registering a league-leading 20 pass breakups.

If he can improve on his interception tally of two, Gardner will be in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion in the coming years.

Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

From the forgotten man whose hopes of becoming a starter in the NFL looked to be over, to the most accurate quarterback in pro football.

Smith led all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 87.1 per cent, improbably guiding a Seahawks team that appeared to be rebuilding to a playoff berth.

The former New York Jet also had the best passer rating (125.8) on throws of at least 21 air yards among all signal-callers with at least 10 such attempts. Smith threw for 13 touchdowns and one interception on his 52 attempts of that distance.

Smith unexpectedly emerged as the answer at quarterback for the Seahawks in the wake of the Russell Wilson trade. With a better ecosystem around him in 2023, he could be the leading man for a true contender.

Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Brian Daboll and Doug Pederson deserve a great deal of credit for transforming also-rans into playoff teams in short order, while Nick Sirianni's case is an extremely compelling one after turning the Eagles into the favourite to win the Super Bowl next week.

But for a combination of overcoming adversity and leading a Super Bowl-contending team, no coach can compete with Shanahan.

Shanahan calmly navigated his team through the stormy waters of losing not one by two starting quarterbacks during the regular season, putting Purdy in a position to succeed, with the rookie's readiness and the support he received from the NFL's best defense a testament to the 49er head coach's ability to assemble a top-tier staff.

Winning 13 games, 15 when counting the pair of playoff victories, in the circumstances the 49ers faced on offense is a remarkable achievement. San Francisco finished the season first in overall Efficiency Versus Expected, doing so after being forced to turn to Purdy is a feat worthy of Coach of the Year recognition.

NFL touchdowns leader Conner surpassing expectations for Cardinals

The Cardinals were anticipated to face an uphill battle in Week 9 as star quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins were ruled out through injury.

Also missing receiver A.J. Green (reserve/COVID-19 list) and with defensive lineman J.J. Watt on injured reserve, Arizona refused to let their plethora of absences condemn them to a damaging defeat in the NFC playoff race.

Instead, the Cardinals have the best record in the NFL after moving to 8-1 with a convincing 31-17 road victory.

Key to the win was Conner, who now leads the NFL with 11 total touchdowns after scoring three against the Niners in a game that saw him finish with 173 yards from scrimmage.

Signed in April after a largely unsuccessful stint with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Conner has served as one of the more astute acquisitions of the NFL offseason, with the display he produced after Chase Edmonds' injury forced him to take the bulk of the workload serving as emphatic evidence of that status.

"I thought he was more of a downhill, power back just watching from afar," Kingsbury said after the game.

"Then we got him here, and he made some spectacular catches in training camp, with his quick twitches and routes.

"He's been above-and-beyond anything any of us could've expected."

Veteran backup Colt McCoy averaged 9.58 yards per attempt in relief of Murray and credited the MVP contender and the talent around him as he enjoyed an efficient day few outside of Arizona will have envisioned.

"If I didn't think I could still play, I wouldn't be playing," McCoy said. "But I also understand my role.

"There is not a bigger fan of Kyler Murray than me right now. I've learned a lot from him in my short time here, and he's very special.

"I'm not Kyler Murray… Me, I'm benefiting from being on a great team."

NFL Week 18: AFC & NFC top seed up for grabs as Titans face Jaguars in winner-takes-all clash

Damar Hamlin's cardiac arrest on the field has sent shockwaves through the sport, though it appears the 24-year-old is making progress in his recovery.

While Hamlin's health remains the league's priority over the rescheduling of that game from Week 17, there is also focus on the final round of fixtures.

There's plenty still be decided in Week 18, and Stats Perform has used Opta data to preview some of the key matchups.

SATURDAY (all times EST)

Chiefs (13-3) at Raiders (6-10) - 4:30pm

With the Bills and the Bengals having yet to finish the game that was rightly suspended on Monday, the AFC picture is not entirely clear. As things stand, a Kansas City Chiefs win in Las Vegas would mean they remain in with a chance of claiming the top seed, pending a decision on the Bengals-Bills game and the outcome of Buffalo's Week 18 clash against the New England Patriots.

The Chiefs have scored 28 or more points in nine consecutive games against the Raiders. The only longer streak of such games against a single opponent in NFL history is 10 by the Los Angeles Rams against the Green Bay Packers, and that came way back in 1949 to 1953. 

Jerick McKinnon caught two touchdowns in Kansas City's 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos and has seven touchdown catches in the Chiefs' last five games. That is the most receiving touchdowns by a running back over a span of five team games in the Super Bowl era. 

The Chiefs have scored 264 points on the road this season, averaging 33.0 points per game. If they hit their average on Saturday, they will finish with the third-most road points in a single season in NFL history, behind only the 2007 New England Patriots (314) and their own effort in 2018 (306).

Patrick Mahomes has 5,000 passing yards (5,048) and 250 rushing yards (329) in a single season for the second time in his career, also doing so in 2018.

Titans (7-9) at Jaguars (8-8) - 8:15pm

It will be winner-take-all in the AFC South when the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans face off. The victor will clinch the division and become the fourth seed in the playoffs. While Jacksonville would still be able to make the postseason via a wild card should they lose, Tennessee must win if they are to avoid elimination.

The Jaguars are looking to sweep the season series with the Titans for the first time since 2005. The only other NFL teams that have gone that long since they last swept a current divisional opponent are the Cleveland Browns, who last swept the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1988, and New York Jets, who last swept the Patriots in 2000 (the Browns also have a chance to end their drought this week).

Jacksonville could become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs immediately following back-to-back 14-loss seasons.

Meanwhile, the Titans are looking to avoid joining the 1994 Eagles as the only teams in league history to have at least seven wins before ending the season on a seven-game game losing streak.

SUNDAY

Giants (9-6-1) at Eagles (13-3) - 4:25pm

The Philadelphia Eagles have been the team to beat in the NFC all season, yet after successive defeats in the absence of Jalen Hurts, they now need a win to clinch the top seed.

Should they lose to the New York Giants, both the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers will have to suffer defeats in order for the Eagles to be guaranteed home advantage in the playoffs.

The omens are good for the Eagles, who have won eight straight home games against the Giants, tied for the second-longest home win streak against a single opponent in team history. It trails only their active 10-game home win streak against the Steelers that started in 1966. 

A win against the Eagles would give the Giants 10 wins after having just four last season. It would be the first time New York earned double-digit wins in a season after having four or fewer wins since doing so in 1933 (11 wins after a 4-6 record in 1932).

Lions (8-8) @ Packers (8-8) - 8.20pm

Given the NFC East will get two of the conference's three wild cards, matters are relatively simple for the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. A Packers victory sends them through to the playoffs, while Detroit need to win and hope the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Seattle Seahawks.

The Packers are coming off a 41-17 win over the Vikings in which they had four takeaways and no giveaways. Green Bay are now 50-0-1 in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs) with a turnover margin of +4 or better in a game.

Green Bay's record at home against the Lions is 61-27-4, the most home wins by any team against a single opponent.

With another win, Aaron Rodgers would be the first QB in NFL history to have two seasons where his team was multiple games under .500 immediately before going on a five-or-greater game winning streak to end the regular season. 

But the Lions have scored at least 20 points while throwing no interceptions in eight straight games, tied for the longest streak in NFL history (regular season) with the 2005 Broncos, 2010 Patriots and 2018-19 Ravens.

Elsewhere...

New England will clinch a playoff spot should they defeat the Bills, who are of course recovering from that incident involving Hamlin. The Bills have won their last two games against the Patriots and are looking for three straight wins in the series for the first time since 1999-2000.

The Miami Dolphins have lost five in a row but can make the playoffs should they beat the Jets. The matchup is perfectly balanced all-time at 56 wins apiece with one tie entering this game. 

A run of five wins from six games has put the Steelers in playoff contention. They will have to beat the Browns and need results elsewhere go their way. Cleveland won against the Steelers in Week 3 this season. The Browns have not won multiple games against Pittsburgh in a season since the 1988 season.

The 49ers can still claim the top seed in the NFC by beating the Arizona Cardinals. San Francisco beat Las Vegas in Week 17, 37-34, despite trailing by 10 points in the third quarter. It was the Niners' second-largest comeback victory in the second half under Kyle Shanahan.

It has been a terrible season for the Rams (5-11), but they are 7-3 in their last 10 games against Seattle. The Seahawks got a 27-23 win in Inglewood in Week 13, the closest game between these teams since a 30-29 Seahawks win in Week 5, 2019. 

NFL What Ifs: What if the 49ers drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005?

Rodgers entered the pros in 2005, when his boyhood team the San Francisco 49ers held the top selection in the draft.

It all seemed so perfect. The Northern California kid who grew up idolising the Niners and played his college ball with the California Golden Bears in nearby Berkeley would land with a San Francisco team in desperate need of a long-term answer at quarterback.

However, the 49ers threw a curveball and instead selected Utah quarterback Alex Smith first overall.

Smith endured many years of struggle with the Niners before finally helping them to the playoffs in 2011 under Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers made the Super Bowl a year later but Smith had to watch from the sideline after a concussion handed the job to Colin Kaepernick, who never gave it back to him.

By marked contrast, Rodgers was selected by the Green Bay Packers as the heir apparent to Brett Favre and led them to a Super Bowl title in the 2010 season. A two-time MVP, Rodgers' legacy as one of the best NFL quarterbacks of all time is secure.

But what if the 49ers had gone with Rodgers 15 years ago? Here we look at how Rodgers being drafted by San Francisco might have changed the landscape of the NFL.

GREEN BAY MISS OUT ON MCCARTHY

Though the 49ers did not draft Rodgers, their offensive coordinator in 2005, Mike McCarthy, ended up being his head coach for the majority of his career in Green Bay.

McCarthy was hired by the Packers in 2006 and it was not until the second half of the 2018 season that Green Bay dispensed with his services

His appointment came despite an awful 2005 season for the 49ers, who finished 4-12 and ranked 30th in total offense. 

Smith was thrown in at the deep end with a team ill-equipped to compete and ravaged by injuries. However, the argument could be made that Rodgers would have fared much better had he been placed at the helm of the Niners offense.

In a scenario where Rodgers comes in and makes the Niners more competitive, perhaps McCarthy is more in demand and receives other offers more attractive than the approach from Green Bay.

There are few franchises with more appeal than the Packers but, if the Niners draft Rodgers, it is possible McCarthy never moves to Wisconsin to guide them to Super Bowl glory five seasons later.

FAVRE RETIRES A PACKER

Brett Favre retired in 2008, allowing Rodgers to ascend to the role of starting quarterback.

However, Favre later stated that he felt pressured into retiring by the Packers and filed for reinstatement to the league.

Talks with the Packers led to him being traded to the New York Jets. His one-year spell with Gang Green was followed by two years with the Packers' division rivals the Minnesota Vikings, turning him into a villain for many in Green Bay.

Had Favre's successor not been lying in wait, the great gunslinger may have been able to retire on his terms as a member of the Packers.

Without Rodgers being drafted by Green Bay, the bizarre image of Favre playing at Lambeau Field in Vikings colours might never have come to pass.

Favre and the Packers deserved a better ending to his time there. If Rodgers' name is first off the board in 2005, the odds are that Favre's send-off is more fitting.

HARBAUGH HEADS TO MIAMI AS NINERS ENJOY EARLY RESURGENCE

The 49ers endured a long playoff drought after losing in the Divisional Round at the end of the 2002 season. They did not make it back to the postseason until the 2011 campaign, when Harbaugh authored a return to prominence.

Yet the signs the Niners had the talent to compete were there before Harbaugh's arrival. Smith showed promise in a 7-9 2006 season and a solid core, featuring the likes of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis and Justin Smith, was gradually built.

In 2009, Mike Singletary oversaw the 49ers' first non-losing season since 2002 despite Smith and Shaun Hill alternating at quarterback.

With Rodgers at the helm, the likelihood is the Niners' resurgence would have come well before 2011 and taken them out of the race for Harbaugh's services.

The Miami Dolphins were the other franchise interested in Harbaugh, then head coach at Stanford University.

Success for San Francisco would have allowed the Dolphins a clear run at Harbaugh, who went on to lead the Niners to appearances in three NFC Championship games and the Super Bowl.

Harbaugh eventually left the 49ers in acrimony in 2015 but, given the success he enjoyed in his brief NFL head coaching career, the now-Michigan boss could have set the Dolphins as long-term challengers to the New England Patriots' superiority in the AFC East had the 2005 draft fallen in a different way.

Nick Bosa wins Defensive Player of the Year

The San Francisco 49ers defensive end collected the award at the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday following a dominant campaign from the Niners' star pass rusher.

Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons and Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones had been in contention for the prize, but Bosa was the clear frontrunner having led the NFL in sacks.

Bosa racked up 18.5 sacks, also tallying 48 quarterback hits and 19 tackles for loss as the 49ers went 13-4, going on to win two playoff games before their NFC Championship Game defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles.

He becomes the third 49er to win Defensive Player of the Year, following in the footsteps of Deion Sanders (1994) and Dana Stubblefield (1997).

Bosa received 46 of the 50 first-place votes and can now look forward to a contract extension that will almost certainly make him the NFL's highest-paid defensive player.

Niners defense to provide stiff test of Wentz's misleading resurgence

Indianapolis started the year with three successive defeats and the Colts' gamble on their ability to revive Carson Wentz's career looking misjudged.

Since then, the Colts have enjoyed wins over the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans, sandwiched by a heartbreaking defeat to the Baltimore Ravens in which they let slip a 19-point lead and lost in overtime.

The performances in those last three games have led to renewed optimism around a team that has reached the playoffs in two of the last three seasons.

Should Indianapolis knock off the San Francisco 49ers on the road in primetime, then the hype around the Colts will only grow.

Yet the 49ers figure to prove a difficult matchup for a quarterback whose performances in recent weeks have perhaps been slightly overrated.

Sub-par accuracy

Ninth in the league in yards per attempt (8.01) and with nine touchdowns to one interception, the numbers through six games for Wentz are impressive.

Yet his completion percentage is 64.2, 21st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks and that is reflected by his accuracy numbers.

Wentz, per Stats Perform data, has produced an accurate, well-thrown ball on 77.7 per cent of his passes, below the league average of 78.8 for quarterbacks with at least 10 attempts.

And he is set to face a Niners defense that has once again been among the league's best this season.

An intimidating defensive line

While the 49ers are themselves an underwhelming 2-3 and riding a three-game losing streak, their defense is excelling under new coordinator DeMeco Ryans.

The 49ers rank sixth in the NFL by yards per game allowed (329.8) and eighth in yards per play (5.29) and, while they are 30th in the NFL with only 76 pressures, they boast defensive linemen who can get Wentz out of rhythm.

Defensive tackle Arik Armstead and edge rushers Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have each dominated in 2021 when it comes to winning their individual matchups.

Armstead has a stunt-adjusted win percentage of 52.63 from his 49 pass rush matchups this year. Ford is next on 45 per cent while Bosa has an adjusted win percentage of 41.54 from 60 matchups. The league average for defensive linemen is 22 per cent.

They will each look to prosper against a Colts offense that has allowed the ninth-most pressures in the NFL (105) while the numbers suggest the Niners should excel at limiting the explosive plays on which Wentz has found joy in recent weeks.

Big plays not a guarantee

On passing attempts of 21 or more air yards, Wentz has the highest passer rating in the NFL (144.7).

He has completed 11 of 18 such attempts for 377 yards and three touchdowns and showed off his deep-ball prowess during last week's rout of the Texans.

Wentz hooked up with Parris Campbell for a 51-yard touchdown and connected with T.Y. Hilton for a 52-yard reception; however, such plays are partially a reflection of the struggles of a Texans defense allowing 7.6 yards per pass play.

The 49ers, despite a spate of injuries to their cornerbacks, have allowed 43 pass plays of 10 yards or more, the fewest in the NFL. San Francisco's defense has conceded 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more, the seventh-fewest in the league.

Wentz, therefore, may be forced into a more conservative approach in a game expected to take place in inclement weather. Helpfully, he may be able to lean more on the running game, with San Francisco 16th in yards per rush allowed (4.26) and running back Jonathan Taylor fifth in the NFL in yards per carry (5.43) for players at his position as he enjoys a superb start to his second season.

Indianapolis' signal-caller can also afford to at least have confidence in his ability to avoid turnovers. His pickable pass percentage of 1.68 is the fourth best among quarterbacks with a minimum of 10 attempts and the 49ers have a league-low two takeaways to their name.

A closer look at the evidence from his reunion with Colts coach Frank Reich indicates Wentz might find success difficult on Sunday should the Colts need to win the game on his arm. If he contradicts the statistics and thrives against a tough defense on the road, then the optimism around Indianapolis will be more justified.

Niners eye lift-off against Colts while Mahomes strives for Brady levels

To snap a three-game losing streak, the Niners (2-3) must get the better of an Indianapolis Colts side who, much like San Francisco themselves, have made an inconsistent start to the season.

By contrast, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are riding a three-game run of wins and have started 5-1 for just the fifth time in the history of the franchise, heading into a tussle with the Chicago Bears (3-3). Tom Brady has been a driving force so far as the Super Bowl winners carry on where they left off last season.

Patrick Mahomes has been hit and miss for the slow-starting Kansas City Chiefs, who will hope the NFL's highest-paid player can cut out throwing interceptions as they face the Tennessee Titans.


Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers

If coach Shanahan's 49ers are to turn around their season, then facing a Colts side who have begun 2-4 seems like a pretty good place to start. Yet the Colts have dominated this series of late, winning on their last four meetings, albeit most recently in 2017 when they snatched a 26-23 overtime success. It would not be stepping out of line to predict this could be tight, given the 49ers have played nine consecutive games that have been decided by eight or fewer points, going back to last season.

That is the longest active streak of such close games in the NFL and the longest streak in team history, and the Niners do not have the best recent return when games go close, posting a 3-6 record in this sequence.

San Francisco fell 17-10 to the Cardinals in their most recent game, two weeks ago, while the Colts hot-footed their way to a 31-3 trouncing of Houston last Sunday. That came despite Indianapolis earning just 15 first downs for the entire game. It was the first time the Colts had won by 28 or more points while only having 15 or fewer first downs since 1972 against New England.

In his 21st career game, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 145 yards and two touchdowns, meaning he surpassed 1,500 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and chalked up his 15th rushing touchdown in the NFL. Only four running backs in NFL history have hit all three of those milestones in fewer games than Taylor, with two of those doing so with the Colts – Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk.

San Francisco will hope to be recharged after a bye week. Deebo Samuel scored the fourth rushing touchdown of his career against the Cardinals, with Jerry Rice (10) the only wide receiver with more rushing touchdowns in 49ers history.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After a dispiriting loss to the Green Bay Packers last time out, the Chicago Bears encounter a Tampa Bay team in sparkling recent form. Tampa Bay have started the season 5-1, doing so for the fifth time in franchise history, and on each of the previous occasions (2005, 2002, 1997 and 1979) they backed it up by reaching the playoffs. History could be made on Sunday, given the Buccaneers have never started a season with six wins through their first seven games.

Yet this is a game in which the Bears have traditionally, and recently, had the upper hand. Chicago have stacked up 40 wins in 60 all-time meetings against Tampa Bay, which is the most wins by any team against the Bucs. The Bears have also won the last two in the series, scoring victories in 2018 and 2020.

Tampa Bay can seemingly do no wrong when Brady is pulling the strings so masterfully. Brady leads the NFL with 2,064 passing yards, the second-highest total he has ever had through six games of a season – beaten only by his 2,163 passing yards at this stage in 2011. Prior to this year, no Tampa Bay quarterback had ever thrown for more than 1,800 yards through six games.

What have the Bears got to offer? Chicago are averaging 246.2 net yards per game, which is more than 20 yards per game less than any other team. The 1,477 yards is the fewest Chicago has had through six games since the 1993 season. Rookie quarterback Justin Fields needs to make something happen, but others must step up too. In his first career start, Khalil Herbert ran for 97 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay last time out.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

"He's trying to make things happen," said Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, explaining away the two interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes in Week 6 against Washington. For Mahomes, that was a second straight game with at least two interceptions. He is tied with Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in second position on the list of the most interceptions thrown this season, with his tally of eight so far only topped by Zach Wilson of the Jets.

This is only the second run that Mahomes has endured of throwing two or more interceptions in consecutive games, the previous dating back to Week 5 and 6 of the 2018 season, and Reid will hope his radar is better set for the clash with the Titans. Mahomes is still doing an awful lot right in 2021, but the fact remains he threw just six interceptions last season.

The Chiefs' unsteady 3-3 opening is their worst of the Mahomes era, and it was 2015 when they got off to a slower start. On that occasion they followed a 1-5 opening with 10 consecutive wins, a single-season record for Kansas City that was matched last season.

Tennessee's bright start has featured some notable performances. The Titans ran for 146 yards and scored four rushing touchdowns in the 34-31 win over Buffalo on Monday night, taking them to 985 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns for the season. It is the first time in franchise history that the Bills have 10 or more rushing touchdowns and at least 975 rushing yards through six games.

Running back Derrick Henry has 10 rushing touchdowns so far, beating his career best of seven through six weeks in 2020. It puts him tied for the fourth most rushing touchdowns of all time through six weeks (Jim Brown 14, Shaun Alexander 12, Emmitt Smith 11).

Elsewhere...

The Detroit Lions face a tall order on the road against the Los Angeles Rams (5-1). Detroit are 0-6 for the first time since their 0-16 season in 2008 and have not scored more than 17 points in any of their last five games. Former Rams quarterback Jared Goff, now with Detroit, has thrown zero touchdown passes and an interception in each of his last two games.

The 5-1 Baltimore Ravens have recent history on their side ahead of a clash with the Cincinnati Bengals, having won five successive games in their head-to-head series, including the last three by a brutal average of 31.7 points.

Heading into a home game against the Houston Texans (1-5), the Arizona Cardinals are on a 6-0 roll. This has only happened twice before in franchise history, but never before in Arizona. The St Louis Cardinals in 1974 and Chicago Cardinals in 1922 are the teams who both started their seasons 6-0 as well.

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts could match an NFL record as the Eagles (2-4) tackle the Las Vegas Raiders. Hurts has rushed for two touchdowns in each of his last two games. Billy Kilmer, for San Francisco in 1961, is the only quarterback to achieve the feat in three straight games.

The Green Bay Packers last lost at home to Washington in 1988, winning five in a row since with home-field advantage, and they put a 5-1 season record to the test when the teams meet again. Washington (2-4) are yielding an NFL-worst 31.0 points per game in 2021, matching the team's worst mark through six games of a season in the Super Bowl era (1998).

Niners in no rush to work out new contract with Trent Williams after trade

Left tackle Williams was traded to the Niners from the Washington Redskins on Saturday.

The arrival of Williams, who is in the last year of his contract, came on the same day in which Joe Staley announced his retirement after 13 seasons with San Francisco.

Williams did not feature in the NFL last year due to a dispute with the Redskins, who received a fifth-round pick in this season's draft and a third-round pick in 2021.

The Niners, beaten by the Kansas Chiefs in the Super Bowl in February, are excited to have landed Williams but are in no hurry to tie the 31-year-old down to a long-term contract.

Lynch said: "I think the plan was to land him right now and then let the rest kind of work itself out.

"I think it's always an advantage when you get someone in the building, on your roster. Now you've got a chance.

"We'll get a really good look at him. We'll see where the rest of our team is at, but right now we are just ecstatic that we were able to pull it off at a really opportune time.

"You're losing a great player like Joe at a very critical position, to be able to have everything line up that he was available right then and for us to be able to land him, I think very fortuitous for us, and we're very excited about that."

Niners make Fred Warner the NFL's highest-paid inside linebacker

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Niners inked Warner to a deal worth $95million including $40.5m guaranteed at signing.

The contract will keep him with San Francisco through the 2026 season.

It follows a 2020 campaign in which Warner was an ever-present for a Niners team decimated by injury and enjoyed a stellar campaign that saw him named as a first-team All-Pro.

San Francisco, having seen three opt out before the start of the season, had 40 players placed on either the injured reserve, physically unable to perform, or reserve/COVID-19 list over the course of last term.

It left them ill-equipped to make a return trip to the Super Bowl having suffered an agonising late 31-20 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2019 season, but individually it was an outstanding year for Warner.

Renowned for having the athleticism to cover wide receivers as well as running backs and tight ends, Warner's adjusted open percentage, which measures how frequently an opposing pass-catcher gets open against a defender's coverage and is adjusted based on position, was 24.60, putting him fifth among all inside linebackers in 2020 according to Stats Perform data.

He allowed a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup against a defender on plays when they are targeted regardless of whether the pass is caught, on 41.7 per cent of his targets, with that burn percentage the seventh-best among linebackers with at least 250 coverage snaps.

Illustrating his all-round impact in affecting the pass game, Warner's pressure rate of 33.3 per cent was tied sixth among linebackers with at least 20 pass-rush snaps.

A third-round pick in 2018, Warner has registered 21 pass breakups since entering the NFL, with that tally tied eighth among all linebackers in that period.

His efforts last year helped the Niners stay in the top five in the NFL in opponent yards per play (5.05) and yards per game (314.4) allowed in 2020 despite their raft of injuries.

With his future decided and San Francisco getting healthy on both sides of the ball having kept the core of one of the deeper rosters in the league intact before drafting quarterback Trey Lance this offseason, Warner will hope to play an integral role in making sure the Niners are a perennial playoff contender this decade.

Niners place star tight end Kittle on IR

On the same day he turned 28, the Niners confirmed their two-time All-Pro had been subject to the roster move due to an ongoing calf problem.

The decision means Kittle must miss at least three matches, including the upcoming NFC West divisional matchup at the undefeated Arizona Cardinals, a game for which he had initially been listed as doubtful.

San Francisco are already without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who also has a calf problem, against the Cardinals, meaning rookie Trey Lance will start.

The team, who are 2-2 after losing two straight games, will hope Kittle is good to go again by Week 8 when they meet the Cardinals once more.

Kittle has struggled with his nagging injury for much of the 2021 season and has made just 19 catches for 227 yards, as he waits to score his first touchdown of the year.

He was restricted to just eight regular season games last year after suffering a broken foot.

Prior to those injury problems, Kittle had been utterly dominant in 2018 and 2019, helping the Niners to the Super Bowl in that period with 2,430 yards and 10 receiving TDs across 30 regular season games.

Kittle was a fifth-round draft pick ahead of the 2017 season.

Niners spoil Beckham and Miller bows in drought-ending Rams rout

All eyes were on debutants Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller after the high-flying Rams (7-3) acquired the star duo to boost their Super Bowl bid.

But the 49ers (4-5) spoiled the party – Garoppolo throwing two touchdown passes as San Francisco celebrated just their second home in the past two seasons, keeping their playoff hopes alive on Monday.

The 49ers, who have now won five straight games against the Rams – the longest active streak by either side, matching their 2008-10 run – had last emerged victorious on home soil in October 2020, also over the Rams.

Matthew Stafford (26-of-41 passing for 243 yards, a TD, two interceptions and two sacks) struggled as the Rams dropped back-to-back games, with the Los Angeles quarterback intercepted by Jimmie Ward on the opening two drives of the contest.

Ward's second interception led to a 27-yard touchdown return as he became the seventh player since 2000 with two interceptions – including a pick-six, in the opening quarter after Garoppolo (15-of-19 passing for 182 yards, two TDs and no interceptions) had led an 18-play, 93-yard TD drive less than a minute earlier.

Stafford has now thrown a pick-six in back-to-back games for the first time since his rookie season in 2009.

Leading 14-0 following the first quarter, the 49ers maintained that buffer as the teams traded touchdowns prior to half-time – Stafford throwing a 10-yard pass to Tyler Higbee before Deebo Samuel ran for an eight-yard score.

After Robbie Gould's 50-yard field goal stretched the lead in the third period, Samuel and Garoppolo combined for a 40-yard touchdown pass to put the 49ers out of reach early in the fourth.