Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay are the only team capable of stopping Argentina from defending their Copa America crown, so says Sergio Aguero.
First, though, Uruguay will have to overcome nine-time Copa America champions Brazil.
Uruguay, who topped Group C with nine points from their three games, face the Selecao in Las Vegas on Saturday. They scored nine times across those three group contests, which is three goals more than any other team in the competition.
Brazil finished second in Group D, behind Colombia, drawing two and winning one of their matches. Not securing top spot means they now have to overcome a huge quarter-final test.
Former Argentina striker Aguero feels that Uruguay, not Brazil, are the favourites to challenge the reigning champions, who scraped past Ecuador on penalties to reach the last four.
In an interview with Stake.com, Aguero said: "I think Uruguay have a lot to give now with Bielsa. They should go far in the tournament.
"I think Argentina are their own biggest threat, and we shouldn't be overconfident. But Uruguay are the only team that could beat us, because Bielsa knows Lionel Scaloni very well.
"Let's not forget that Uruguay is the only team that has beat us since becoming world champions."
As well as beating Argentina in World Cup qualifying, Uruguay have also defeated Brazil.
And their achievement in winning 100% of the available points in the group stage was the first time they had done that in the Copa since 1942, when they won all six of their matches and were crowned champions.
In a further boost to Bielsa's team, Brazil's talisman Vinicius Junior will miss the game due to suspension.
"Vini is a top player who can win games for us," Brazil defender Danilo said.
"But we have other players with a lot of quality and potential, and let's try to make up for Vini's absence."
Real Madrid forward Vinicius is Brazil's leading scorer at the tournament, with both of his goals having come in the 4-1 win over Paraguay on Matchday 2.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Uruguay - Sergio Rochet
Goalkeeper Rochet has kept a clean sheet in six of the last seven matches he has played for Uruguay across all competitions.
The only team that managed to score against him during this period was Panama, in Uruguay's 3-1 victory in the group stage.
Brazil - Raphinha
Raphinha scored Brazil's goal in their 1-1 draw with Colombia last time out, and with Vinicius out of action, the onus will be on the Barcelona man to provide the spark in attack.
Against Colombia, he attempted six dribbles, completing three of them, with both figures being team highs. His direct free-kick goal was the first scored by a Brazil player since 2019.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW (IN 90 MINUTES)
We have already had one penalty shootout in the Copa America quarters, and Opta's model is suggesting we could have another, with the supercomputer finding it hard to separate these sides.
Brazil and Uruguay are two of the three teams who have not fallen behind at any point of the tournament, alongside Argentina, so it may not come as a surprise to see the system predicting a tight contest.
Uruguay have lost only one of their 10 quarter-final matches at the Copa America (W4 D5), since this round was first played in 1993. Half of these games have been decided by penalty shootouts, with Uruguay winning two of those.
This will be the first knockout meeting between these nations at the Copa America since the 2007 semi-finals, when Brazil won on penalties en route to becoming champions.
Knocking out Brazil is no mean feat. They have never lost a knockout match against Uruguay in the Copa America, with two wins and three draws (W2 L1 of the penalty shootouts).
And, in a streak that is ongoing since 2011, Brazil have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last 24 Copa matches.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Uruguay - 35.6%
Brazil - 37.4%
Draw - 27%
The Copa America is well under way, with the group stages already done and dusted.
Argentina made light work of progressing from Group A, even though Lionel Messi had to sit out their last fixture.
And key to their success has been the goalscoring form of Lautaro Martinez, who is making up for some bad misses at the 2022 World Cup.
Brazil also progressed, with Vinicius Junior their talisman as expected, while Darwin Nunez is the key attacker for Marcelo Bielsa's free-flowing Uruguay.
Ahead of the knockouts, how is the Copa America Golden Boot race shaping up?
Lautaro Martinez (four goals)
We'll start with the leader in the race, and that is Martinez.
The forward had an outstanding season for Inter, who he led to the Scudetto while finishing as top scorer in Serie A, scoring 24 goals in 33 appearances, and comfortably outperforming his 17.6 xG.
However, he came into the build-up to this tournament in poor form for his country, having not netted for Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying.
But he scored a double in a 4-1 win over Guatemala in a pre-tournament friendly, and even though he has started just one of Argentina's matches so far, he has netted four times.
Martinez is also the Argentina player with the most shots (nine). In fact, since his debut in the Copa America in 2019, Martinez is the tournament's top scorer with nine goals (two in 2019, three in 2021, four in 2024), four more than Messi and Luis Diaz (five each).
It remains to be seen whether Martinez will have to settle for a super-sub role once Messi returns to the fold, but with Ecuador next up, and then a potential semi-final against either Canada or Venezuela, Argentina's path to the final is opening up nicely, and Martinez should fancy his chances.
Vinicius Junior (two goals)
Fresh from winning the Champions League with Real Madrid (and scoring in the final – again), Vinicius came into the Copa America as Brazil's talisman.
With Neymar absent through injury, the onus is on the winger to provide the creative spark and clinical edge to drag what looks like a more dogged, workmanlike squad through to the latter stages.
However, he will be absent for Brazil's clash with in-form Uruguay, who are arguably the favourites going into that tie, due to picking up two yellow cards in the group stages.
Vinicius' booking tally matches his goal tally at the tournament so far, with both of those having come in the first half of a 4-1 rout of Paraguay.
But with Brazil only having a maximum of two games left, will he have time to catch Martinez?
Darwin Nunez (two goals)
One player who could end Vinicius' hopes altogether is Uruguay forward Nunez.
The Liverpool striker is an erratic finisher, but he is an integral part of Marcelo Bielsa's free-flowing attack.
The 24-year-old may never be ultra-clinical, (he had a shot conversion rate of 10.2 per cent in the Premier League in the season just gone) but his pace, tenacity and work rate make him the ideal Bielsa folly up top.
Indeed, he has converted just one of his six Opta-defined big chances so far at this Copa America, but his two goals have come from an xG of 1.8, showing he's about on track.
If Uruguay can get past Brazil, they will face Colombia or Panama in the semi-finals. Nunez should be locking in on that Golden Boot.
Salomon Rondon (two goals)
An unlikely name on this list is Venezuela veteran Rondon, but his two goals – scored in wins over Mexico and Jamaica – helped his side top Group B with nine points.
Venezuela will face Canada in the quarters, and while Jesse Marsch's team are a surprise package in the last eight, they have proved they can be wide open defensively at times.
Only three players can better Rondon's 1.98 xG across the tournament so far, while the 34-year-old has had 13 shots, which matches Martinez's total.
He is getting into good positions and having plenty of attempts. If Venezuela indeed get the better of Canada, who's to say Rondon cannot claim this prize?
Daniel Munoz, Eduard Bello, Maximiliano Araujo (two goals)
There are three other players tied on two goals, though perhaps they are a tad more unlikely to challenge Martinez.
Munoz grabbed his second goal of the tournament in Colombia's 1-1 draw with Brazil, though as a right-back, he cannot be expected to keep up the scoring run.
Bello, meanwhile, has scored his two goals from just three shots, so that does not seem particularly sustainable.
Araujo, on the other hand, has netted twice from an xG of just 0.6, so he is overperforming.
What about Messi?
Not only did Messi finish as joint-top scorer at the 2021 Copa, he was also the leading assister and then, 18 months later, he went on to lead Argentina to World Cup glory, scoring seven goals in the process, from 6.6 expected goals – only Kylian Mbappe (eight) netted more times in Qatar.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta.
However, he has been unable to add to that total so far.
He took on the role of creator in Argentina's opening win against Canada, and has had seven shots in total, but so far, no luck.
Christian Pulisic said he could not accept the performance of referee Kevin Ortega after the United States crashed out of the Copa America on Monday.
Having been beaten 2-1 by Panama in their second Group C match, the USA knew only a victory would do against Uruguay on matchday three.
However, they suffered a 1-0 defeat at Arrowhead Stadium, with Mathias Olivera netting a second-half winner that was allowed to stand despite replays appearing to show he may have been offside in the build-up.
It is the first time the USA have gone out in the Copa America's group stage since 2007, having previously made it further when invited to take part in 1995 and 2016.
Referee Ortega was seen refusing a handshake from Pulisic at full-time, and while the USA captain would not blame the official for his team's exit, he was infuriated by his performance.
"Honestly, I saw things that I've never seen before right in front of my eyes today, things that truly I can't believe," Pulisic said at a post-match press conference.
"It's not why we lost; we're not out of this tournament because of officiating. But I've just seen things where I don't know what I'm looking at.
"I don't know what they're calling. I don't know what he's… he gives no explanation. He's doing things that I just can't accept. He wouldn't shake my hand. It's normal, I guess."
While the USA's home campaign is over almost as quickly as it began, Uruguay will now face the runners-up from Group D – likely Colombia or Brazil – in the last eight.
On the opposite side of the knockout bracket to favourites Argentina, they are considered contenders to go all the way, but assistant Pablo Quiroga – who was on the sideline as Marcelo Bielsa served a one-match ban – feels they have work to do.
"I think at the beginning of the game we were not intense enough in the initial press," he said. "From there they were able to get the first pass with some comfort, and that prevented us from recovering the ball as we normally do.
"When we fixed that, in the course of the game, the process went more towards what we wanted. The team did not lose its form against an opponent that has very good players and a lot of class."
The United States may have slumped out of the Copa America, but Gregg Berhalter believes he is still the right coach.
The USA's dress rehearsal for hosting the 2026 World Cup ended with a whimper as they crashed out in the group stage following Monday's 1-0 loss to Uruguay.
That loss, combined with Panama's 3-1 win over Bolivia, sent the host nation packing.
However, Berhalter insisted he is still the right coach for the job.
When asked if he felt he should stay in the role for the 2026 World Cup, he said: "Yes. You have to keep moving forward.
"It's not where you say okay, this program is doomed. That's not the case at all. It was a poor performance, we didn't get the results that we expected and we need to get better."
Mathías Olivera's goal midway through the second half was enough for Marcelo Bielsa's team, who will face the runners-up of Group D, likely to be either Brazil or Colombia, in the last eight.
The USA mustered just eight shots, getting only three of those on target and accumulating 0.56 expected goals (xG) to Uruguay's 1.4.
"We're bitterly disappointed in the results," Berhalter added.
"We know that we're capable of more and at this tournament we didn't show it. It's as simple as that."
Uruguay headed into the tournament as favourites behind Argentina and Brazil, and they have proved their worth by winning all three of their group games.
In fact, they have opened a Copa America with three consecutive victories for the first time since 1959. Additionally, this is the first time La Celeste collected 100% of the available points in an initial phase of the tournament since 1942, when they won all six of their matches and were crowned champions in Montevideo.
With another heavyweight likely to come in the next round, Uruguay assistant coach Diego Reyes said: "They are two great opponents. Colombia is living a very good moment presently. Brazil, we all know they are great, so we're going to start analysing in depth once we are sure who we are going to be against.
"I believe that after some minutes (against the USA), the team was able to find its way. This is a good thing because the upcoming matches will look a lot like this, so I think it's a good comparison point.
"There's always things to correct, and that's what we are going to try to do."
The United States crashed out of the Copa America following a 1-0 defeat by Uruguay, who advanced to the quarter-finals as Group C winners.
The defeat at Arrowsmith Stadium – coupled with Panama's 3-1 victory over bottom side Bolivia – culminated in the Stars and Stripes falling at the first hurdle in their home tournament.
Though both sides were generally lacking a creative spark in the final third, Mathias Olivera's 66th-minute strike was enough to seal the hosts' fate.
Meanwhile, Uruguay ensured a 100% record as they marched into the last eight, where a showdown with the Group D runners-up, likely to be Brazil or Colombia, awaits them in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Each side lost a player to injury during a disjointed first half in Kansas City.
Uruguay's Maximiliano Araujo was stretchered off with suspected concussion following an aerial collision with Tim Ream in the 27th minute, while Folarin Balogun limped off for the hosts four minutes before the break.
The closest either team came to breaking the deadlock was when a quickly taken Uruguay free-kick released Nahitan Nandez, whose clipped effort was cleared away by Ream.
Just after the hour mark, news filtered through from Orlando that Bolivia had equalised against Panama to move Gregg Berhalter's side back up to second place in Group C.
However, the joy was short-lived as a Uruguay free-kick saw Matt Turner parry Ronald Araujo's fierce header straight to Olivera, who just about stayed onside to tuck home the rebound from close range.
Panama regained their lead soon after to leave the Stars and Stripes needing two goals to stand any chance of progressing.
Christian Pulisic and Haji Wright both saw deflected efforts blocked on the line, but that was as close as the tournament hosts came to finding a route back into the contest, as their stubborn opponents held out to inflict the defeat that ended hopes of home glory.
Unblemished Uruguay make Copa America history
When it comes to the Copa America, you write Uruguay off at your peril.
After all, La Celeste have won the competition 15 times – the most recent of these triumphs coming in 2011. It is a tally only matched by reigning champions Argentina. They have also only failed to progress beyond the group stages once in the last 25 years (2016).
And for the first time in their history, Uruguay have now registered a 100% record in a single group stage, while they have also started a single campaign with three straight wins for the first time since 1959.
Marcelo Bielsa was serving a touchline ban, but will return to the dugout for the quarter-finals. Having led Argentina to the final of this competition in 2004, he would love to go the extra step with La Celeste two decades on and get his hands on this trophy.
Unwanted history for departing host nation
For the first time at an international tournament, the USA have failed to advance from the group stage after winning their opening match, having progressed in each of the 23 previous instances.
Despite the defeat against Panama last time out, Berhalter stuck with continuity as his only change was an enforced one with Munus replacing the suspended Timothy Weah.
It meant 10 players had started all three group games for the Stars and Stripes in a major competition for only the fourth time (the feat also occurring at the 1950 World Cup, 1994 World Cup and 2016 Copa America).
Previously unbeaten against Uruguay, they had won their final group match at each of their last six tournaments.
However, their xG of 0.58 demonstrated the lacking of a clinical edge in the final third, with just three shots on target throughout the entire contest.
And despite the best efforts of the Kansas City crowd to rally the players, the hosts just could not get going, and you could not see a route back for them once they fell behind. That proved to be the case.
USA crashed out of the Copa America following a 1-0 defeat by Uruguay, who advanced to the quarter-finals as Group C winners.
The defeat at Arrowsmith Stadium – coupled with Panama's 3-1 victory over bottom side Bolivia – culminated in the Stars and Stripes falling at the first hurdle in their own tournament.
Though both sides were generally lacking a creative spark in the final third, Mathias Olivera's 66th-minute strike was enough to seal the hosts' fate.
Meanwhile, Uruguay ensured a 100% record as they marched into the last eight, where a showdown with the Group D runners-up awaits them in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Each side lost a player to injury during a disjointed first half in Kansas City.
Uruguay's Maximiliano Araujo was stretchered off with suspected concussion following an aerial collision with Tim Ream in the 27th minute, while Folarin Balogun limped off for the hosts four minutes before the break.
The closest either team came to breaking the deadlock was on 33 minutes when a quickly taken Uruguay free-kick released Nahitan Nandez, whose clipped effort towards goal was cleared away by Ream.
Just after the hour mark, news filtered through from Orlando that Bolivia had equalised against Panama to move Gregg Berhalter's side back up to second place in Group C.
However, the joy was short-lived as a Uruguay free-kick saw Matt Turner parry Ronald Araujo's fierce header straight to Olivera, who just about stayed onside to tuck home the rebound from close range.
Panama regained their lead soon after to leave the Stars and Stripes needing two goals to stand any chance of progressing.
Christian Pulisic and Haji Wright both saw deflected efforts blocked on the line, but that was as close as the tournament hosts came to finding a route back into the contest, as their stubborn opponents held out to inflict the defeat that ended hopes of home glory.
Unblemished Uruguay make Copa America history
When it comes to the Copa America, you write Uruguay off at your peril.
After all, La Celeste have won the competition 15 times – the most recent of these triumphs coming in 2011. It is a tally only matched by reigning champions Argentina. They have also only failed to progress beyond the group stages once in the last 25 years (2016).
And for the first time in their history, Uruguay have now registered a 100% record in a single group stage, while they have also started a single campaign with three straight wins for the first time since 1959.
Marcelo Bielsa was serving a touchline ban, but will return to the dugout for the quarter-finals. Having led Argentina to the final of this competition in 2004, he would love to go the extra step with La Celeste two decades on and get his hands on this trophy.
Unwanted history for departing host nation
For the first time at an international tournament, USA have failed to advance from the group stage after winning their opening match, having progressed in each of the 23 previous instances.
Despite the defeat against Panama last time out, Berhalter stuck with continuity as his only change was an enforced one with Munus replacing the suspended Timothy Weah.
It meant 10 players had started all three group games for the Stars and Stripes in a major competition for only the fourth time (the feat also occurring at the 1950 World Cup, 1994 World Cup and 2016 Copa America).
Previously unbeaten against Uruguay, they had won their final group match at each of their last six tournaments.
However, their xG of 0.58 demonstrated the lacking of a clinical edge in the final third, with just three shots on target throughout the entire contest.
And despite the best efforts of the Kansas City crowd to rally the players, the hosts just could not get going, and you could not see a route back for them once they fell behind. That proved to be the case.
Tyler Adams says the confidence has returned to the United States' camp in the wake of their shock defeat to Panama.
The USA lost 2-1 in Atlanta on Thursday, with Panama taking advantage after Timothy Weah was sent off early on.
That defeat leaves the Copa America hosts in a perilous position in Group C. They are ahead of Panama on goal difference, but the Stars and Stripes must play in-form Uruguay in their last match, while Panama face Bolivia, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.
But in spite of the pressure on Gregg Berhalter's team ahead of Monday's encounter with Marcelo Bielsa's side, Adams says there is a positive mood in the camp.
"We're all confident again, you know, when we have 11 players on the field that we can go toe to toe with anybody," Adams told reporters.
"The training was good today. I think we saw the intensity. And we're going to need that from the first minute against Uruguay."
Antonee Robinson is well aware of the stakes.
"It's definitely going to come down to a massive effort from the team," he said.
"I mean, if we're looking at realistically, there's a chance that this is our last game in the tournament, so there's no reason to hold anything back. We're all going to have to give everything in this game."
Uruguay hammered Bolivia 5-0 in their last outing, with Bielsa's team highly likely to top the group, albeit that could result in a last-16 meeting with Brazil, who are second in Group D.
Darwin Nunez is the focal point of Uruguay's attack under Bielsa, though the former Leeds United coach is not concerned with the forward's sometimes-erratic finishing.
"All players who are consistent goal scorers know how to finish," Bielsa said.
"But then they are also human and so they will have times where that capacity will be more evident and other times when it is less evident.
"Darwin is a player who does not need much support. The only thing that concerns me is whether he gets in positions, which he does extraordinarily well, to score, impact games, finish the moves, or choose where to place the shot."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
United States - Folarin Balogun
Former Arsenal attacker Balogun scored a stunner against Panama, and also went close to a sensational second.
With his back-up, Ricardo Pepi, underperforming his 2.27 expected goals (xG), the pressure is on Balogun to lead the USA's line. He is doing an admirable job so far, with two goals in as many matches, so do not be shocked to see him keep up that form.
Uruguay - Darwin Nunez
Nunez has scored in his first two Copa America matches.
Only four Uruguay players have scored in their first three matches in the competition: Pedro Petrone (1923), Mario Bergara (1959), Vladas Douskas (1959), and Jorge Oyarbide (1967).
MATCH PREDICTION: URUGUAY WIN
The USA might need the points, but the Opta supercomputer is backing Uruguay.
Uruguay have not started with three victories in a row since 1959, when they defeated Ecuador (4-0), Brazil (3-0) and Argentina (5-0).
These teams will face each other in the Copa America for the first time since 1993, when Uruguay won 1-0.
La Celeste have won four of their last five matches against CONCACAF opponents in the competition (1L), and kept a clean sheet in three of those five games.
Uruguay's two victories against the USA were in the only two non-friendly matches they have played (3-0 at the Paris Olympics in 1924 and 1-0 in the 1993 Copa America).
In fact, Uruguay are the only CONMEBOL team that have not been able to beat the United States while playing in North America.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
USA - 21.6%
Uruguay - 56.1%
Draw - 22.3%
Marcelo Bielsa believes Uruguay have more to do to mark themselves out as one of the favourites to win the Copa America, despite crushing Bolivia 5-0 to make it two wins from two games.
Facundo Pellistri, Darwin Nunez, Maximiliano Araujo, Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur all scored as Bielsa's team ran riot in their second Group C game on Thursday.
It was Uruguay's biggest win in the Copa America since 1959, when they beat Argentina by the same scoreline in the group stage.
Having opened their campaign with a 3-1 win over Panama, they have won their first two matches at a Copa America tournament for the first time since 1995, when they went on to lift the trophy.
A figure of 2.74 expected goals (xG) from 18 shots to Bolivia's 0.06 (four shots) spoke to Uruguay's dominance, but Bielsa feels they still have much to prove.
"Without underestimating the strengths of the two teams we faced, those teams are not among the main competitors for the title," the former Leeds United boss said.
"Respectfully, I think that there are some very significant steps to be taken. Drawing conclusions today would be incorrect.
"Winning two games without facing the best teams in the competition does not allow us to define ourselves as one of the most important teams, that is a long way from being confirmed."
Uruguay now have a three-point cushion at the top of their group after the United States lost 2-1 to Panama, meaning a draw against the hosts in their final match will secure top spot.
Asked how well the players were adapting to his style, Bielsa added: "As for the identification with our way of playing, that is being verified game by game.
"In the previous match we had 15 minutes of the second half with a different performance than the rest of the match, today there was also a similar period where the production was different, for a certain time we stopped creating danger for the opponents."
Marcelo Bielsa insists there is room for improvement for Uruguay, despite kicking off their Copa America campaign with a 3-1 win over Panama in Florida.
Uruguay's win saw them move level on points with hosts the United States following their victory over Bolivia in the other Group C encounter.
The 15-time winners were rewarded for their fast start when Maximilian Araujo curled home his first international goal in the 16th minute.
However, Panama would grow into the contest as Jose Fajardo and Jose Rodriguez squandered golden opportunities for Thomas Christiansen's side.
And their wastefulness was punished late on as Darwin Nunez, who had missed several chances in the game, settled Uruguay's nerves with a calm finish.
Matias Vina furthered La Celeste's advantage in the first minute of injury-time with a header, only for Michael Amir Murillo to net a late consolation for Panama.
However, Bielsa was quick to temper expectations despite the triumph, insisting his side must improve to secure a record 16th Copa America crown.
The 68-year-old took charge of Uruguay in May last year, beating both Argentina and Brazil in World Cup qualifiers.
"When it comes to Uruguay's aspirations, we will see that and build it match by match," he told reporters.
"My expectation is that each match will increasingly help us to improve on our level. Uruguay has players of a very good level and we need to see if I can build with those players."
Uruguay continue their group campaign against Bolivia in New Jersey on Thursday, before facing the USA at the Arrowhead Stadium next Tuesday.
Marcelo Bielsa insists there is room for improvement for Uruguay, despite kicking off their Copa America campaign with a 3-1 win over Panama in Florida.
Uruguay's win saw them move level on points with hosts the United States following their victory over Bolivia in the other Group C encounter.
The 15-time winners were rewarded for their fast start when Maximilian Araujo curled home his first international goal in the 16th minute.
However, Panama would grow into the contest as Jose Fajardo and Jose Rodriguez squandered golden opportunities for Thomas Christiansen's side.
And their wastefulness was punished late on as Darwin Nunez, who had missed several chances in the game, settled Uruguay's nerves with a calm finish.
Matias Vina furthered La Celeste's advantage in the first minute of injury-time with a header, only for Michael Amir Murillo to net a late consolation for Panama.
However, Bielsa was quick to temper expectations despite the triumph, insisting his side must improve to secure a record 16th Copa America crown.
The 68-year-old took charge of Uruguay in May last year, beating both Argentina and Brazil in World Cup qualifiers.
"When it comes to Uruguay's aspirations, we will see that and build it match by match," he told reporters.
"My expectation is that each match will increasingly help us to improve on our level. Uruguay has players of a very good level and we need to see if I can build with those players."
Uruguay continue their group campaign against Bolivia in New Jersey on Thursday, before facing the USA at the Arrowhead Stadium next Tuesday.
A festival of football is about to kick off in the United States, as the Copa America sparks into action.
Argentina, the reigning champions, get the ball rolling when they face Canada in the opening Group A match, and Lionel Messi will be the main man as ever for La Albiceleste.
Messi was the joint-leading scorer at the 2021 Copa America, netting four goals to lead the standings alongside Colombia’s Luis Diaz.
The Barcelona great is expected to be right up there again when it comes to the 2024 Copa America Golden Boot race, and here, we dive into the main candidates for that award.
Lionel Messi
Not only did Messi finish as joint-top scorer at the 2021 Copa, he was also the leading assister and then, 18 months later, he went on to lead Argentina to World Cup glory, scoring seven goals in the process, from 6.6 expected goals – only Kylian Mbappe (eight) netted more times in Qatar.
As soon as he features for Argentina at this tournament, Messi will become the Copa America’s all-time record holder for appearances – he is tied with Chile great Sergio Livingstone on 34, as it stands.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta. If he is able to replicate his four goals from the 2021 edition, then Messi will join Norberto Mendez and Zizinho at the top of the all-time charts – that is unless Peru’s Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile’s Eduardo Vargas were to net at least four times each to set a new record.
Since the start of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 shots – more than any other player. Surprisingly, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78 per cent, which stands as the second-lowest out of any player to have netted at least five goals in the competition in that time.
But there can be no doubting Messi’s genius, and the little magician is entering what will surely be his final Copa in fine form – he has scored 12 goals in MLS for Inter Miami this season, outperforming his 8.3 xG and averaging a goal every 86 minutes.
Argentina are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Copa, and group matches against Canada, Chile and Peru provide Messi with a favourable jumping off point to win the Golden Boot again.
Vinicius Junior
Fresh from winning the Champions League with Real Madrid (and scoring in the final – again), Vinicius heads into the Copa America as Brazil’s talisman.
With Neymar absent through injury, the onus will fall on the winger to provide the creative spark and clinical edge to drag what looks like a more dogged, workmanlike squad through to the latter stages – Brazil are, according to our model, second favourites behind Argentina, with a 23 per cent win probability.
If the Selecao are to challenge the holders, then they need Vinicius in top form.
While he played as a split-striker for Madrid this season as Carlo Ancelotti found a way to get the best out of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius is more likely to play wide left for his country, though his cutting runs from out-to-in will make him a constant threat, as long as the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta can pick him out.
Vinicius netted 24 times for Los Blancos in 2023-24, and attempted 286 dribbles – 10 more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions. He averaged 8.4 take-on attempts per 90, a tally bettered by only Jeremy Doku, while Vinicius also boasts a dribble completion rate of 3.3 per 90.
He is yet to score at the Copa America, however. That being said, he did not make a single start in 2021, with all four of his appearances coming as a substitute, having only one shot and completing only one of his seven dribbles. But such has been his stellar form under Ancelotti in the intervening three years, there is no doubting he is now Brazil’s main man.
Brazil face Costa Rica, Paraguay and in-form Colombia in Group D, but none of those defences should strike fear into Vinicius.
Luis Diaz
Diaz enjoyed a superb campaign three years ago, scoring two absolute screamers – one came in the group stage, an overhead kick against Brazil, while the other came in the third-place play-off as Colombia beat Peru; it was a stunner from outside the area, with the then-Porto winger lashing into the top-right corner after skipping in from the flank and taking on several defenders.
Indeed, the quality of Diaz’s finishes are shown by his xG in 2021, which was just 1.0. And Diaz’s excellent shooting at that edition is further evidenced by his expected goals on target (xGoT) figure of 2.2.
Diaz had only 10 shots, 18 fewer than Messi, yet boasted a hugely impressive 40 per cent shot conversion rate. Only Messi (57) and Neymar (77), meanwhile, attempted more dribbles than Diaz (43) at the 2021 edition, while it was just that superstar duo that completed more dribbles, too (Neymar 35, Messi 34, Diaz 26).
His performances at that tournament piqued the interest of Premier League sides, and Diaz subsequently moved to Liverpool in January 2022. So while he will not be quite the unknown quantity that he was three years ago, if he is at his best, he will still be hugely difficult to stop – especially with James Rodriguez pulling the strings behind him.
Darwin Nunez
Bookending this list of the top Golden Boot contenders is Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez. The Liverpool striker has been superb under Marcelo Bielsa, and looks to be El Loco’s main attacker, even with Luis Suarez in the squad.
Nunez scored 11 Premier League goals for the Reds in 2023-24, but underperformed his xG (16.4) by 5.4. While he was unfortunate in a sense – he hit the woodwork on nine occasions, four more times than any other player – he was also erratic in his finishing, with his xGoT dropping to 15.5. Nunez also missed 14 big chances, which ranked behind only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (34).
The 24-year-old may never be ultra-clinical, (he had a shot conversion rate of 10.2 per cent in the Premier League in the season just gone) but his pace, tenacity and work rate make him the ideal Bielsa folly up top.
Nunez scored a hat-trick in Uruguay’s 4-0 demolition of Mexico earlier in June, while he is the leading goalscorer in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, with five to his name.
Uruguay head into the tournament in fine fettle, and Bielsa will always be willing to risk it all in attack – meaning plenty of opportunities should come Nunez’s way.
They are in a group with the hosts USA, Panama and Bolivia – the worst-ranked team in the tournament – so Nunez should be aiming to make a dent early on.
Other contenders
Lautaro Martinez
Martinez has had an outstanding season for Inter, who he led to the Scudetto while finishing as top scorer in Serie A, scoring 24 goals in 33 appearances, and comfortably outperforming his 17.6 xG.
However, he has not netted for Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying, and is not a regular starter under Lionel Scaloni, so chances may not be of a premium for him. That being said, he did score twice in Argentina's 4-1 win over Guatemala on Friday.
Endrick
Boy wonder Endrick, who will link up with Vinicius, Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid next season, has scored three goals for Brazil in his last three appearances.
He scored those in successive matches, though he was unable to become the first Selecao player since Neymar in 2021 to net in four consecutive games as Dorival Junior’s team drew 1-1 with the USA in a warm-up match. At 17, Endrick looks like a superstar in the making, and he could be an outside bet for the Golden Boot.
Luis Suarez
Uruguay’s all-time leading scorer Suarez is bang in form heading into this tournament. The veteran has 68 goals in 138 caps and has netted 12 times already for Miami in MLS this season, averaging a goal every 96 minutes.
Of players to score at least five times in MLS in 2024, Suarez has the fourth-highest shot conversion rate, too (33.33 per cent). Uruguay are ranked as the third-favourites by the Opta supercomputer, so Suarez could have plenty of matches to add to his international goals tally.
Christian Pulisic
The USA cannot find much consistency under Gregg Berhalter, though they did draw 1-1 with Brazil in a friendly on June 13. If the hosts are to make a serious run, then they will need to channel through Pulisic.
While he is more likely to act as a creator, the attacker has proved he is more than capable of putting away chances. He scored 15 goals for Milan in 2023-24, making it the best goalscoring campaign of his career.
It took 28 years, but Argentina finally ended a long wait for a major international trophy when they triumphed at the 2021 Copa America.
Lionel Messi starred throughout that tournament in Brazil, which was played partly behind closed doors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, scoring four goals and laying on five more, though it was Angel Di Maria who proved Argentina's hero in the final, scoring the winner against the Selecao.
That triumph marked Messi's first piece of silverware on the international stage, while Argentina won a trophy for the first time since 1993.
It paved the way for Argentina to go from continental champions to world champions less than 18 months later, as Messi inspired them to glory in Qatar.
And now the world champions will look to cement this era of dominance by retaining the Copa America crown.
With the help of Opta data, we preview the key storylines ahead of the Copa America.
THE HOSTS
USA
This year's Copa will be held in the United States, which was also the host nation for the 2016 edition, which was won by Chile.
Like in 2016, 16 teams will feature at the tournament this year, with the USA one of six CONCACAF nations involved.
Gregg Berhalter left his role after the 2022 World Cup, but was then reappointed. While he has a talented group at his disposal, it does feel as though he cannot quite get the required level of consistency out of them.
The two sides of the USA were on show in their warm-up matches: A 5-1 hammering at the hands of Colombia was followed by a 1-1 draw with heavyweights Brazil.
In Christian Pulisic, the USA have an influential playmaker who comes into the tournament on the back of his best goalscoring season, having netted 15 times in all competitions for Milan.
Folarin Balogun has netted three times for the Stars and Stripes since switching allegiance from England, while Antonee Robinson, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Yunus Musah have plenty of top-level experience. But Berhalter has to find a way to put it all together.
THE FAVOURITES
Argentina
It is easy to see why La Albiceleste are the big favourites. They are the best team in the world, according to the FIFA rankings, and in Messi, they still have a player who is arguably the best in the world, even heading into his late thirties.
Messi has already been involved in 21 MLS goals for Inter Miami this season, and everything is set to revolve around him once again for Argentina.
As soon as he features for Argentina at this tournament, Messi will become the Copa America’s all-time record holder for appearances – he is tied with Chile great Sergio Livingstone on 34, as it stands.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta. If he is able to replicate his four goals from the 2021 edition, then Messi could join Norberto Mendez and Zizinho at the top of the all-time charts – that is unless Peru's Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile's Eduardo Vargas were to net at least four times each to set a new record.
Since the start of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 shots – more than any other player. Surprisingly, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78 per cent, which is the second-lowest out of any player to have netted at least five goals in the competition in that time.
With 15 titles to their name, Argentina are the joint-record winners of the Copa America, alongside Uruguay. They have played more Copa matches (201) and scored more goals in the tournament (474) than any other team, too.
They are clearly the team to beat.
Brazil
This Brazil is not exactly the vintage of the 1990s or 2000s. With no Neymar, there's less flair, and more streetfighter grit, in Dorival Junior's squad.
Vinicius Junior does provide a flavour of the archetypal Brazilian international, though, and he is set to be the Selecao's talisman at this Copa.
He comes into the tournament on the back of an exceptional season with Real Madrid, having scored 24 goals across all competitions.
Vinicius outperformed his 20.96 xG, while also providing nine assists and creating 56 chances for his team-mates.
The forward spent much of the domestic campaign playing down the middle for Carlo Ancelotti's team, whereas for his country, he is likely to play wide left.
Who occupies that centre-forward spot is perhaps up for debate. Endrick is a superstar in the making, though will Brazil's coach trust the youngster to lead the line from the off?
Gabriel Martinelli is better on the flanks, though could do a job if required. However, with no Richarlison or Gabriel Jesus, that striker position does seem a possible weakness.
There's no Casemiro, following his poor performances for Manchester United, but Douglas Luiz, Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta form a steely midfield trio with genuine quality.
With Ederson injured, Alisson is the clear number one, with Eder Militao and Marquinhos seemingly set to pair up at the back, with Gabriel Magalhaes and Bremer quality options in reserve, too.
They face Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica in their group, and despite their struggles in World Cup qualifying, they are still the favourites to top that pool.
Uruguay
Now under the guidance of the enigmatic Marcelo Bielsa, Uruguay are being tipped by many to emerge as serious challengers in the United States.
A hat-trick from Liverpool's Darwin Nunez helped them thrash Mexico 4-0 in a pre-tournament friendly last week, while they also sit second in the CONMEBOL 2026 World Cup qualification standings, having beaten Brazil and Argentina last year.
That latter victory makes them the only team to defeat La Albiceleste since they won the World Cup in Qatar. Messi and company have won the other 13 of their 14 matches as world champions.
Nunez, who ranked joint-fifth in the Premier League for total shots (108) and eighth for xG (16.39) in 2023-24, is an ideal fit for the all-action attacking approach favoured by Bielsa, while tireless midfielder Federico Valverde brings balance alongside enforcer Manuel Ugarte and the cultured Rodrigo Bentancur.
Luis Suarez, meanwhile, has received a surprise call-up despite not featuring in Uruguay's pre-tournament friendlies, having scored 12 goals and assisted five in 16 MLS appearances for Inter Miami this term.
Neutrals should expect entertainment from a side that leads all teams in South American World Cup qualifying for xG (9.05), but as is so often the case with Bielsa's teams, there are questions at the other end.
Ecuador (4.52) and Venezuela (4.78) are among those to have allowed opponents a lower xG total in the CONMEBOL qualifiers than Uruguay (4.97 xGA), and goalkeeper Sergio Rochet can expect to be worked after usurping Fernando Muslera, who helped La Celeste finish fourth at the 2010 World Cup and win the Copa America one year later.
Panama and Bolivia look unlikely to offer much of a challenge in Group C, making Uruguay's final match against the United States vital. Should they top their pool, they will land on the opposite side of the bracket to the Group A victors, widely expected to be Argentina.
Uruguay held the record for most Copa America victories outright between 2011 (their 15th title) and 2021 (Argentina's 15th). If we see Bielsa-ball in full flow, they could be contenders to reclaim their status as South America's top dogs.
Colombia
Colombia are the form team heading into the Copa America.
They are unbeaten in 23 games, winning the last eight of those, including hammerings of the USA and Bolivia in pre-tournament friendlies.
Luis Diaz scored one and set up another in that latter match - a 3-0 win - and he was the breakout star of the 2021 Copa America, scoring four goals to finish level with Messi at the top of the charts.
Those four goals came from a combined xG of just 1.0, with Diaz netting an overhead kick against Brazil in the group stage, and lashing in a supreme strike from outside the area as Colombia beat Peru in the third-placed play-off.
Diaz is Colombia's most potent goalscoring threat, but they also have James Rodriguez to rely on further back.
James' club career has become a nomadic one, but for his country, the former Madrid playmaker is a superstar once again under coach Nestor Lorenzo, who has made the 32-year-old the main man.
Having been left out of Colombia's squad for the 2021 edition, James will be eager to make up for lost time.
Colombia are more than just dark horses. They should be considered among the very best teams at this tournament.
THE BREAKOUT STARS
Endrick is the obvious pick here. The teenager looks set for stardom, and he'll be linking up with Vinicius, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid next season. He has scored three goals in his last four outings for Brazil, including a late winner against Mexico earlier in June.
Alejandro Garnacho is now an established Premier League player, but he is only just finding his way for Argentina. He is yet to score for his country, but has stepped up in big moments for Manchester United this season, none more so than in the FA Cup final, in which he scored the opening goal in a 2-1 win over Manchester City.
Colombia forward Jhon Duran is reportedly of interest to Chelsea, and the Aston Villa attacker could be something of a wildcard for Lorenzo off the bench. His five Premier League goals in 2023-24 came from just 2.0 xG.
THE OPTA SUPERCOMPUTER SAYS...
As mentioned, Argentina are the clear favourites, with Opta's model handing them a 31 per cent chance of winning their 16th Copa crown.
Brazil, as would be expected, rank second - their win likelihood is 23 per cent .
Uruguay come in with a 13 per cent chance, ahead of the USA ( seven per cent ), Colombia ( six per cent ) and Mexico ( six per cent ).
Two teams - Jamaica and Bolivia, who are the worst-ranked side in this year's edition of the tournament - are given a zero per cent chance of winning the trophy.
Panama, who reached the CONCACAF Gold Cup final last year, can perhaps consider themselves hard done by to be given just a one per cent chance, however.
Marcelo Bielsa questioned Mexico's approach after Darwin Nunez scored a hat-trick in Uruguay's comprehensive 4-0 friendly win over El Tri in Denver.
Uruguay warmed up for their Copa America campaign with their seventh win in 12 games under Bielsa (three draws, two defeats), thrashing a much-changed Mexico side.
With Mexico set to face Brazil in their final pre-tournament friendly on Saturday, head coach Jaime Lozano benched the likes of Santiago Gimenez and Alexis Vega and saw his team torn to shreds.
Uruguay raced into a 3-0 lead by half-time as Nunez netted twice and Facundo Pellistri converted Brian Rodriguez's cross, then the Liverpool man made it a treble by finishing into an empty net shortly after the interval.
After the win, former Leeds United boss Bielsa suggested Mexico took the game lightly, saying: "I think a team that is preparing should have taken today's game with maximum power, knowing that they have to play Brazil."
However, Bielsa expects far more from El Tri at the Copa America, where they have been drawn in Group B alongside Ecuador, Venezuela and Jamaica.
"It was a deceptive result, in the first half Mexico could have scored and it would have been different," he said.
"Don't lose sight of the fact that today there were many important players out of the team, too many.
"Keeping the stars they had on the field today and adding the players that came on, Mexico will be a very difficult opponent."
Uruguay begin their Copa America campaign against Panama on June 23, taking on Bolivia four days later and rounding off Group C against the host nation, the United States.
Edinson Cavani has announced his retirement from international football, meaning he will not represent Uruguay at the Copa America.
The 37-year-old is Uruguay’s second-most capped player with 136 appearances, and their second-highest scorer (58) behind only Luis Suarez.
Cavani made his debut in a friendly draw with Colombia in February 2008 and was part of the team that won the 2011 Copa America title.
However, the striker has not made an appearance for his national team since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when they were knocked out in the group stages.
In a post on social media, Cavani said: "My beloved Celeste, I just want to thank you for every lesson you gave me under your process.
"I won't take long. Today my words are few but profound. Thanks to every single person who was a part of this road over the years. I was and always will be blessed to have worn this jersey representing what I love most in this world, my country.
"They were without doubt so many wonderful years. I have a thousand things to say, tell and remember, but I want to dedicate today to this new stage of my career and give everything I've got to where I'm supposed to be now.
"I have decided to step aside but with my heart still beating, as it was when it was my turn to take to the pitch wearing this beautiful jersey. Sending a strong embrace to all of my fans."
Uruguay will begin their Copa America campaign against Panama on June 23.
CONCACAF president Victor Montagliani believes next year's Copa America will serve as perfect preparation for the 2026 World Cup.
Joining the 10 South American teams in the 2024 Copa America, which will be held in the United States, will be six teams from CONCACAF.
The USA, Mexico, Jamaica and Panama are already assured of their places in the tournament, with Costa Rica or Honduras and Canada or Trinidad and Tobago to take the remaining two spots.
With the expanded, 48-team World Cup in 2026 also taking place in North America, CONCACAF president Montagliani hopes the Copa America presents the perfect opportunity for the federation's teams to prepare.
"It's evidence of when leadership and two very important confederations come together and put football first. The game is going to win here because you're going to have a great tournament next year," Montagliani told Concacaf.com.
"I think we realised early on that we needed to make sure that we made our own competitions better, like our Nations League, our Gold Cup.
"This was an opportunity, after speaking with my counterpart, Alejandro Dominguez, to come together and partner with them, not just on the men's side like we have now with Copa America, but also on the women's side with a Women's Gold Cup.
"This fits in well with our strategy to increase not only the quantity of competitions, but also the quality of competitions, and this will help our teams prepare for the World Cup in our backyard.
"FIFA is also going to have the Club World Cup here in 2025 and I think from a fan's perspective, I'm not sure we've ever had this, so it's a great time to be involved in the game, at whatever level you are.
"I think it's a bit of a coming out party for our region. Obviously, we've struggled in the past at many levels, but I think, as I said a long time ago, for the work we've done in the last six years, we deserve the right to think long-term.
"We also now deserve the right to enjoy the present and all the football that is coming our way."
Reigning Copa and world champions Argentina were placed in Group A in Thursday's draw, alongside Peru, Chile and Canada or Trinidad and Tobago. The USA will face Uruguay, Panama and Bolivia in Group C, while Brazil will go up against Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica or Honduras in Group D.
Two CONCACAF teams should also fancy their chances of progressing from Group B, with Mexico and Jamaica – who count the likes of Leon Bailey, Michail Antonio and Demarai Gray in their squad – going up against Venezuela and Ecuador.
The draw opened up as such that another Argentina-Brazil final could be on the cards.
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