A festival of football is about to kick off in the United States, as the Copa America sparks into action.
Argentina, the reigning champions, get the ball rolling when they face Canada in the opening Group A match, and Lionel Messi will be the main man as ever for La Albiceleste.
Messi was the joint-leading scorer at the 2021 Copa America, netting four goals to lead the standings alongside Colombia’s Luis Diaz.
The Barcelona great is expected to be right up there again when it comes to the 2024 Copa America Golden Boot race, and here, we dive into the main candidates for that award.
Lionel Messi
Not only did Messi finish as joint-top scorer at the 2021 Copa, he was also the leading assister and then, 18 months later, he went on to lead Argentina to World Cup glory, scoring seven goals in the process, from 6.6 expected goals – only Kylian Mbappe (eight) netted more times in Qatar.
As soon as he features for Argentina at this tournament, Messi will become the Copa America’s all-time record holder for appearances – he is tied with Chile great Sergio Livingstone on 34, as it stands.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta. If he is able to replicate his four goals from the 2021 edition, then Messi will join Norberto Mendez and Zizinho at the top of the all-time charts – that is unless Peru’s Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile’s Eduardo Vargas were to net at least four times each to set a new record.
Since the start of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 shots – more than any other player. Surprisingly, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78 per cent, which stands as the second-lowest out of any player to have netted at least five goals in the competition in that time.
But there can be no doubting Messi’s genius, and the little magician is entering what will surely be his final Copa in fine form – he has scored 12 goals in MLS for Inter Miami this season, outperforming his 8.3 xG and averaging a goal every 86 minutes.
Argentina are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Copa, and group matches against Canada, Chile and Peru provide Messi with a favourable jumping off point to win the Golden Boot again.
Vinicius Junior
Fresh from winning the Champions League with Real Madrid (and scoring in the final – again), Vinicius heads into the Copa America as Brazil’s talisman.
With Neymar absent through injury, the onus will fall on the winger to provide the creative spark and clinical edge to drag what looks like a more dogged, workmanlike squad through to the latter stages – Brazil are, according to our model, second favourites behind Argentina, with a 23 per cent win probability.
If the Selecao are to challenge the holders, then they need Vinicius in top form.
While he played as a split-striker for Madrid this season as Carlo Ancelotti found a way to get the best out of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius is more likely to play wide left for his country, though his cutting runs from out-to-in will make him a constant threat, as long as the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta can pick him out.
Vinicius netted 24 times for Los Blancos in 2023-24, and attempted 286 dribbles – 10 more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions. He averaged 8.4 take-on attempts per 90, a tally bettered by only Jeremy Doku, while Vinicius also boasts a dribble completion rate of 3.3 per 90.
He is yet to score at the Copa America, however. That being said, he did not make a single start in 2021, with all four of his appearances coming as a substitute, having only one shot and completing only one of his seven dribbles. But such has been his stellar form under Ancelotti in the intervening three years, there is no doubting he is now Brazil’s main man.
Brazil face Costa Rica, Paraguay and in-form Colombia in Group D, but none of those defences should strike fear into Vinicius.
Luis Diaz
Diaz enjoyed a superb campaign three years ago, scoring two absolute screamers – one came in the group stage, an overhead kick against Brazil, while the other came in the third-place play-off as Colombia beat Peru; it was a stunner from outside the area, with the then-Porto winger lashing into the top-right corner after skipping in from the flank and taking on several defenders.
Indeed, the quality of Diaz’s finishes are shown by his xG in 2021, which was just 1.0. And Diaz’s excellent shooting at that edition is further evidenced by his expected goals on target (xGoT) figure of 2.2.
Diaz had only 10 shots, 18 fewer than Messi, yet boasted a hugely impressive 40 per cent shot conversion rate. Only Messi (57) and Neymar (77), meanwhile, attempted more dribbles than Diaz (43) at the 2021 edition, while it was just that superstar duo that completed more dribbles, too (Neymar 35, Messi 34, Diaz 26).
His performances at that tournament piqued the interest of Premier League sides, and Diaz subsequently moved to Liverpool in January 2022. So while he will not be quite the unknown quantity that he was three years ago, if he is at his best, he will still be hugely difficult to stop – especially with James Rodriguez pulling the strings behind him.
Darwin Nunez
Bookending this list of the top Golden Boot contenders is Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez. The Liverpool striker has been superb under Marcelo Bielsa, and looks to be El Loco’s main attacker, even with Luis Suarez in the squad.
Nunez scored 11 Premier League goals for the Reds in 2023-24, but underperformed his xG (16.4) by 5.4. While he was unfortunate in a sense – he hit the woodwork on nine occasions, four more times than any other player – he was also erratic in his finishing, with his xGoT dropping to 15.5. Nunez also missed 14 big chances, which ranked behind only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (34).
The 24-year-old may never be ultra-clinical, (he had a shot conversion rate of 10.2 per cent in the Premier League in the season just gone) but his pace, tenacity and work rate make him the ideal Bielsa folly up top.
Nunez scored a hat-trick in Uruguay’s 4-0 demolition of Mexico earlier in June, while he is the leading goalscorer in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, with five to his name.
Uruguay head into the tournament in fine fettle, and Bielsa will always be willing to risk it all in attack – meaning plenty of opportunities should come Nunez’s way.
They are in a group with the hosts USA, Panama and Bolivia – the worst-ranked team in the tournament – so Nunez should be aiming to make a dent early on.
Other contenders
Lautaro Martinez
Martinez has had an outstanding season for Inter, who he led to the Scudetto while finishing as top scorer in Serie A, scoring 24 goals in 33 appearances, and comfortably outperforming his 17.6 xG.
However, he has not netted for Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying, and is not a regular starter under Lionel Scaloni, so chances may not be of a premium for him. That being said, he did score twice in Argentina's 4-1 win over Guatemala on Friday.
Endrick
Boy wonder Endrick, who will link up with Vinicius, Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid next season, has scored three goals for Brazil in his last three appearances.
He scored those in successive matches, though he was unable to become the first Selecao player since Neymar in 2021 to net in four consecutive games as Dorival Junior’s team drew 1-1 with the USA in a warm-up match. At 17, Endrick looks like a superstar in the making, and he could be an outside bet for the Golden Boot.
Luis Suarez
Uruguay’s all-time leading scorer Suarez is bang in form heading into this tournament. The veteran has 68 goals in 138 caps and has netted 12 times already for Miami in MLS this season, averaging a goal every 96 minutes.
Of players to score at least five times in MLS in 2024, Suarez has the fourth-highest shot conversion rate, too (33.33 per cent). Uruguay are ranked as the third-favourites by the Opta supercomputer, so Suarez could have plenty of matches to add to his international goals tally.
Christian Pulisic
The USA cannot find much consistency under Gregg Berhalter, though they did draw 1-1 with Brazil in a friendly on June 13. If the hosts are to make a serious run, then they will need to channel through Pulisic.
While he is more likely to act as a creator, the attacker has proved he is more than capable of putting away chances. He scored 15 goals for Milan in 2023-24, making it the best goalscoring campaign of his career.
Ramos in 'final phase' of recovery, says PSG boss Luis Enrique
Luis Enrique confirmed that Paris Saint-Germain striker Goncalo Ramos is nearing a return to action after sustaining an ankle injury on the opening day of the season.
Ramos, who scored 14 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions in his debut season for PSG last year, has not featured for the Parisiens since their 4-1 win over Le Havre in August.
But despite his absence, Luis Enrique's side sit top of the Ligue 1 standings ahead of welcoming Toulouse to the Parc des Princes this Friday.
They are also the top scorers in the division, netting 33 goals in 11 matches so far, nine more than Marseille, who are second in the scoring table.
And as the hectic festive schedule kickstarts, Luis Enrique revealed Ramos has already returned to full first-team training.
"It was the 25th and that is in a few days, so it is the final phase of his recovery," Luis Enrique told reporters.
"As for when he is available (to play) we do not know. We will see in training, he is doing really well and is in full training."
Following Friday's fixture against Toulouse, PSG travel to the Allianz Arena to face Bayern Munich in the Champions League, hoping to ignite their European campaign.
The Ligue 1 champions are at risk of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the competition having taken four points from their first four games this season.
They currently sit 25th in the new 36-team league table, and with an important week coming up, Luis Enrique insisted he would think about rotating his squad.
"You mustn't only think about the game against Toulouse but also the workload for players with their national teams," he said.
"So we will make decisions based on what we think. We want to win against Toulouse, which is our main target."
Ousmane Dembele did not feature during the international break after he left the France training camp with a hamstring issue, though he is expected to feature this Friday.
"In theory, it was nothing serious. I don't think it was a big issue and these things happen during the season," Luis Enrique said.
"It is normal with such a busy schedule, he should be available to play."
While Toulouse sit 10th in the league standings, they will provide PSG with a difficult test. They come into the game on the back of three consecutive wins, all without conceding a goal.
PSG have also not won any of their last two meetings against Toulouse (D1 L1), and could go three games without a win against the Violets for the second time in the 21st century after a winless streak between December 2007 to October 2009 (five).
Hurzeler: Brighton need to 'work to get momentum' despite Man City win
Brighton and Hove Albion boss Fabian Hurzeler believes his players need to rebuild their momentum following a two-week break after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City.
The Seagulls came back from a goal down in dramatic fashion to inflict City's fourth successive defeat in all competitions last time out.
Though the international break came at a bad time for his in-form team, Hurzeler refused to criticise the schedule ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
"You always have to work to get momentum. It's always a new game and no matter if there's a break between games or not, the game starts from zero," he told a pre-match press conference.
"You have to go into the game and do the things you can influence to the maximum.
"You can't say 'we won against Manchester City and now the momentum will keep going', it's about fighting for momentum.
"It's a new game, a different challenge and a really big challenge because Bournemouth are one of the strongest teams at the moment."
Bournemouth have also beaten City recently, with the Cherries also triumphing over Arsenal and Southampton in their last three home matches.
"They can play very intense, they run a lot, they have individual quality, they are in good shape. For me at the moment, they're one of the best teams in the league," Hurzeler said of the Cherries.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola, meanwhile, was keen to stress that his players need to keep their concentration against Brighton. The Cherries were beaten 3-2 away to Brentford last time out, despite having taken the lead twice.
“You never want to lose the last game before the break because at the end you remember the last feeling. We will remember this week, the actions here against Brentford," he said.
"We can prepare very well for the game against Brighton, that is going to be also very demanding.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bournemouth – Evanilson
Evanilson has scored four goals for Bournemouth since joining the club in August. He is tied with Antoine Semenyo as the club's top scorer, although his goals have come in one fewer appearance.
The Brazilian forward has found the net in three successive matches and will become the first Bournemouth player since Callum Wilson in 2019 to score in four straight top-flight games should he do so on Saturday.
Brighton – Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's leading scorer so far this season, with six league goals – a total that includes three opening goals.
He has scored two away goals so far in the current campaign, coming on the opening day at Everton and the only goal of the game at Newcastle United last month.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Bournemouth come into this in 12th place in the Premier League on 15 points after 11 matches, having lost 3-2 to Brentford in their most recent game.
At home, though, they have taken 10 points from five matches (three wins, one draw, one loss) and come into this with three successive victories at the Vitality Stadium. They have never won four Premier League home games in a row.
Brighton have earned seven points from five away games (two wins, one draw and two losses) and, despite being six places above their hosts in the table, there are just four points between them.
While Bournemouth have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler's side come into this in good form having won three of their last five (one draw, one loss) Premier League matches – as many victories as they managed across their previous 16 league games (six draws, seven defeats).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Bournemouth – 41.2%
Draw – 25.1%
Brighton – 33.7%
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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