A festival of football is about to kick off in the United States, as the Copa America sparks into action.
Argentina, the reigning champions, get the ball rolling when they face Canada in the opening Group A match, and Lionel Messi will be the main man as ever for La Albiceleste.
Messi was the joint-leading scorer at the 2021 Copa America, netting four goals to lead the standings alongside Colombia’s Luis Diaz.
The Barcelona great is expected to be right up there again when it comes to the 2024 Copa America Golden Boot race, and here, we dive into the main candidates for that award.
Lionel Messi
Not only did Messi finish as joint-top scorer at the 2021 Copa, he was also the leading assister and then, 18 months later, he went on to lead Argentina to World Cup glory, scoring seven goals in the process, from 6.6 expected goals – only Kylian Mbappe (eight) netted more times in Qatar.
As soon as he features for Argentina at this tournament, Messi will become the Copa America’s all-time record holder for appearances – he is tied with Chile great Sergio Livingstone on 34, as it stands.
Messi has scored 13 Copa America goals, which puts him joint-seventh on the all-time list, alongside fellow Argentina great Gabriel Batistuta. If he is able to replicate his four goals from the 2021 edition, then Messi will join Norberto Mendez and Zizinho at the top of the all-time charts – that is unless Peru’s Paolo Guerrero and/or Chile’s Eduardo Vargas were to net at least four times each to set a new record.
Since the start of the 2011 Copa, Messi has had 102 shots – more than any other player. Surprisingly, his conversion rate stands at just 10.78 per cent, which stands as the second-lowest out of any player to have netted at least five goals in the competition in that time.
But there can be no doubting Messi’s genius, and the little magician is entering what will surely be his final Copa in fine form – he has scored 12 goals in MLS for Inter Miami this season, outperforming his 8.3 xG and averaging a goal every 86 minutes.
Argentina are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Copa, and group matches against Canada, Chile and Peru provide Messi with a favourable jumping off point to win the Golden Boot again.
Vinicius Junior
Fresh from winning the Champions League with Real Madrid (and scoring in the final – again), Vinicius heads into the Copa America as Brazil’s talisman.
With Neymar absent through injury, the onus will fall on the winger to provide the creative spark and clinical edge to drag what looks like a more dogged, workmanlike squad through to the latter stages – Brazil are, according to our model, second favourites behind Argentina, with a 23 per cent win probability.
If the Selecao are to challenge the holders, then they need Vinicius in top form.
While he played as a split-striker for Madrid this season as Carlo Ancelotti found a way to get the best out of Jude Bellingham, Vinicius is more likely to play wide left for his country, though his cutting runs from out-to-in will make him a constant threat, as long as the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta can pick him out.
Vinicius netted 24 times for Los Blancos in 2023-24, and attempted 286 dribbles – 10 more than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues across all competitions. He averaged 8.4 take-on attempts per 90, a tally bettered by only Jeremy Doku, while Vinicius also boasts a dribble completion rate of 3.3 per 90.
He is yet to score at the Copa America, however. That being said, he did not make a single start in 2021, with all four of his appearances coming as a substitute, having only one shot and completing only one of his seven dribbles. But such has been his stellar form under Ancelotti in the intervening three years, there is no doubting he is now Brazil’s main man.
Brazil face Costa Rica, Paraguay and in-form Colombia in Group D, but none of those defences should strike fear into Vinicius.
Luis Diaz
Diaz enjoyed a superb campaign three years ago, scoring two absolute screamers – one came in the group stage, an overhead kick against Brazil, while the other came in the third-place play-off as Colombia beat Peru; it was a stunner from outside the area, with the then-Porto winger lashing into the top-right corner after skipping in from the flank and taking on several defenders.
Indeed, the quality of Diaz’s finishes are shown by his xG in 2021, which was just 1.0. And Diaz’s excellent shooting at that edition is further evidenced by his expected goals on target (xGoT) figure of 2.2.
Diaz had only 10 shots, 18 fewer than Messi, yet boasted a hugely impressive 40 per cent shot conversion rate. Only Messi (57) and Neymar (77), meanwhile, attempted more dribbles than Diaz (43) at the 2021 edition, while it was just that superstar duo that completed more dribbles, too (Neymar 35, Messi 34, Diaz 26).
His performances at that tournament piqued the interest of Premier League sides, and Diaz subsequently moved to Liverpool in January 2022. So while he will not be quite the unknown quantity that he was three years ago, if he is at his best, he will still be hugely difficult to stop – especially with James Rodriguez pulling the strings behind him.
Darwin Nunez
Bookending this list of the top Golden Boot contenders is Uruguay’s Darwin Nunez. The Liverpool striker has been superb under Marcelo Bielsa, and looks to be El Loco’s main attacker, even with Luis Suarez in the squad.
Nunez scored 11 Premier League goals for the Reds in 2023-24, but underperformed his xG (16.4) by 5.4. While he was unfortunate in a sense – he hit the woodwork on nine occasions, four more times than any other player – he was also erratic in his finishing, with his xGoT dropping to 15.5. Nunez also missed 14 big chances, which ranked behind only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (34).
The 24-year-old may never be ultra-clinical, (he had a shot conversion rate of 10.2 per cent in the Premier League in the season just gone) but his pace, tenacity and work rate make him the ideal Bielsa folly up top.
Nunez scored a hat-trick in Uruguay’s 4-0 demolition of Mexico earlier in June, while he is the leading goalscorer in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, with five to his name.
Uruguay head into the tournament in fine fettle, and Bielsa will always be willing to risk it all in attack – meaning plenty of opportunities should come Nunez’s way.
They are in a group with the hosts USA, Panama and Bolivia – the worst-ranked team in the tournament – so Nunez should be aiming to make a dent early on.
Other contenders
Lautaro Martinez
Martinez has had an outstanding season for Inter, who he led to the Scudetto while finishing as top scorer in Serie A, scoring 24 goals in 33 appearances, and comfortably outperforming his 17.6 xG.
However, he has not netted for Argentina in 2026 World Cup qualifying, and is not a regular starter under Lionel Scaloni, so chances may not be of a premium for him. That being said, he did score twice in Argentina's 4-1 win over Guatemala on Friday.
Endrick
Boy wonder Endrick, who will link up with Vinicius, Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe at Real Madrid next season, has scored three goals for Brazil in his last three appearances.
He scored those in successive matches, though he was unable to become the first Selecao player since Neymar in 2021 to net in four consecutive games as Dorival Junior’s team drew 1-1 with the USA in a warm-up match. At 17, Endrick looks like a superstar in the making, and he could be an outside bet for the Golden Boot.
Luis Suarez
Uruguay’s all-time leading scorer Suarez is bang in form heading into this tournament. The veteran has 68 goals in 138 caps and has netted 12 times already for Miami in MLS this season, averaging a goal every 96 minutes.
Of players to score at least five times in MLS in 2024, Suarez has the fourth-highest shot conversion rate, too (33.33 per cent). Uruguay are ranked as the third-favourites by the Opta supercomputer, so Suarez could have plenty of matches to add to his international goals tally.
Christian Pulisic
The USA cannot find much consistency under Gregg Berhalter, though they did draw 1-1 with Brazil in a friendly on June 13. If the hosts are to make a serious run, then they will need to channel through Pulisic.
While he is more likely to act as a creator, the attacker has proved he is more than capable of putting away chances. He scored 15 goals for Milan in 2023-24, making it the best goalscoring campaign of his career.
Crystal Palace 0-7 Chelsea: Blues run riot to keep Bompastor perfect
Sonia Bompastor maintained her perfect start to life as Chelsea head coach as her side turned on the style in the second half to beat Crystal Palace 7-0 on Friday.
After Lauren James saw a goal ruled out, the Blues found their breakthrough in the 38th minute as Agnes Beever-Jones turned home Johanna Rytting Kaneryd's delivery.
Lucy Bronze handed the visitors the perfect start to the second half, guiding a strike into the far corner for her first Chelsea goal since her move from Barcelona.
The result was put beyond doubt just before the hour-mark as James finally got her name on the scoresheet, opening her account for the season from close range.
But the Blues were not done there. Guro Reiten struck beyond Shae Yanez for Chelsea's fourth, with Catarina Macario's corner then finished by Nathalie Bjorn.
Reiten notched her second in the 90th minute, with Macario adding gloss to an impressive showing from the defending champions as she capitalised on Yanez's parry to compound the newly-promoted Eagles to a second defeat of the season.
Data Debrief: Ruthless Blues clip Eagles' wings
After a battling display against Aston Villa on the opening day, Bompastor's side showcased the attacking ruthlessness that was missing a week ago.
James was a particular standout for the Blues, registering a team-high expected goals (xG) tally of 0.95 to Chelsea's 2.47 total from her four shots during the encounter.
Chelsea ended the contest with 24 shots, 11 of which were on target, completing 56 touches inside the opposition's box compared to Palace's 12.
But for all of their attacking brilliance, Chelsea have now kept a clean sheet in each of their last five games in the Women's Super League. Their last longer run of games without conceding a goal in the competition was a run of six matches between February and April in 2021.
Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United: No margin for error with playoffs in sight, says Curtin
Jim Curtin knows Philadelphia Union have no margin for error as they chase a playoff spot, with Atlanta United next up for them in MLS.
The Union are currently ninth in the Eastern Conference, having put together big back-to-back wins against New York City FC (5-1) and D.C. United (4-0) in their last two matches.
They have now won three of their last four matches in the league, but Curtin warned his players that they cannot ease off the pressure until their playoff spot is secured.
"Every game is must win now. There's no margin for error for any team that isn't above the red line comfortably," Curtin said.
"The home games always become really critical. We've had a tough schedule, but all these points matter because anything could be the difference.
"There'll be a lot of highs and lows, and everybody still has hope and it's going to be a sprint to the finish. We recognise the challenge, but you have to say must-win until you're mathematically eliminated."
Meanwhile, Atlanta sit two places and three points below their opponents in the table after failing to win any of their last three matches.
They have drawn their last two outings 2-2 though, and interim head coach Rob Valentino is hoping they can take a more direct approach in an attempt to find a cutting edge.
"Do we really think we can play through? Then great, let's do it," Valentino said. "But if I think that we can be more direct and expose their centrebacks or expose a certain area of the pitch, let's go and do it.
"Let's not waste time with the ball. The intentional possession of what we're doing with it. I just want to make sure that we're intentional about what we're doing with the ball."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Union – Mikael Uhre
Mikael Uhre scored the opening goal in the Union's win over D.C. United on Sunday, his fourth straight match with a goal.
Uhre is the fifth player in Union history to score in four straight regular-season matches, though only one, Daniel Gazdag, has scored in five straight (August-September 2022).
Atlanta United – Edwin Mosquera
Edwin Mosquera's goal at 90+2' for Atlanta United on Saturday was the club's 11th goal from outside the box this season.
Only Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake (12 each) have more in 2024.
MATCH PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN
The Union have won each of their last four regular-season home matches against Atlanta United. Atlanta's lone win at Subaru Park was a 2-0 victory in July 2018.
The Union have won two straight matches, winning each by a four-goal margin. This is the 15th time in MLS history a team has recorded back-to-back four-goal wins, including the second by the Union (August 2022), but no team has ever won three straight matches by four or more goals.
Meanwhile, Atlanta have won only two of their last 10 regular season matches (D3 L5) dating back to the beginning of July. Each of Atlanta's last two matches ended in 2-2 draws.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Philadelphia Union – 56.9%
Draw – 22.3%
Atlanta United – 20.8%
'I love him' - Arteta adamant title fight will not affect relationship with Guardiola
Mikel Arteta insists the title fight between Arsenal and Manchester City will not affect his relationship with Pep Guardiola.
The sides played out a dramatic 2-2 draw in the Premier League last Sunday, with City snatching a last-gasp equaliser after 10-man Arsenal had staunchly defended throughout the second half.
Leandro Trossard was dismissed at the end of the first half, receiving a second yellow card for kicking the ball away, and Arsenal were accused of using the "dark arts" in their attempts to come away with three points.
The Gunners spent a total of nine minutes and four seconds on their goal-kicks in Sunday's match – the most by any team in a Premier League game this season.
Meanwhile, the average delay at Arsenal restarts (goal-kicks, throw-ins and free-kicks) was 42.7 seconds, with only Aston Villa versus Wolves (47.3) taking longer this term.
Multiple City players have since criticised the tactics, with arguments also taking place on the pitch, but Arteta says his friendship with Guardiola would not suffer because of any on-pitch disagreements.
"I love him [Guardiola]. I respect him and admire him. I admire his team and everything he does," Arteta said.
"This is sport. One thing is our professional, another is my personal relationship. If that has to be damaged because we play against each other, then I wouldn't talk to him anymore!
"That's not the relationship I consider both of us have. Sport will never get in my way for a personal relationship, for sure."
Asked if the accusations aimed at Arsenal could affect it, Arteta added: "It depends. If it's true, but if it's not, and you show your integrity, do what you think is right, it doesn't have to.
"It's opinions. If you don't like them, you shouldn't be sitting where I am.
"It's simple, don't take it personally, make sure you handle the things you care about in the right way, and I really care about that relationship. It's the same as a lot of staff and players I've spent very important years of my life working with."
Arsenal are back in action against Leicester City in the Premier League on Saturday.
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