With the last international window of the season over, domestic club campaigns now enter the final straight.

Everything is still to be decided – technically speaking. Title races, European qualification, relegation – all will come to a head over the next two months.

Of course, there are a few outcomes that already look like foregone conclusions, but there's still much to play for in each of the top five leagues.

With club football returning over the next few days, Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team have crunched the numbers using their supercomputer to predict the outcome of each league.

How's the outlook for your team?

Premier League

England is the scene of potentially most compelling title race among the top five leagues this season.

Arsenal may have an eight-point lead at the summit, but Manchester City still have a game in hand. As such, the Gunners' chances of winning a first league title since 2004 are 56.2 per cent, perhaps smaller than many might have expected.

That comes down in part to the statistical value attached to City's historic results, particularly over the past few years during their Premier League domination, whereas Arsenal haven't come close to that level of success over the same period.

Therefore, the title race still looks tight.

A little further back, Manchester United (74.5 per cent) are near-certainties to finish third, while the race for fourth promises to be engrossing – Tottenham (19.3 per cent), Newcastle United (29.1 per cent) and Liverpool (24.5 per cent) look set to tussle it out, with Brighton and Hove Albion (10.7 per cent) considered rank outsiders.

At the bottom, Southampton's 41.6 per cent likelihood of finishing 20th suggests they've a huge battle on their hands, but the supercomputer reckons West Ham and Leicester City have enough to pull themselves clear of the drop zone.

The signs are that two of Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham Forest will join Saints in the Championship.

 

Bundesliga

Germany's top flight may come to rival the Premier League's title race. Ahead of the weekend's Klassiker between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, BVB are a point clear.

Yet, Dortmund's probability of finishing top is just 22.4 per cent compared to Bayern's 76.4. Again, it largely comes down to their historic results and Die Roten's dominance suggesting they'll eventually get the job done.

But it's fair to say Bayern's decision makers aren't so confident given their brutal choice to sack Julian Nagelsmann on Friday, replacing him with former Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel.

Union Berlin aren't out of it given they are only five points behind Dortmund, though this is obviously uncharted territory for them, hence the 0.9 per cent chance of winning their first top-flight title since 1923.

Third looks the best bet for them (40.3 per cent), while RB Leipzig are the most likely to fill out the top four (37.2 per cent).

It's even tighter in the relegation scrap. Only seven points separate 18th from 13th, so even rock-bottom Stuttgart are given a reasonable chance of finishing 14th (10.6 per cent) or 15th (15.2 per cent).

 

LaLiga

Following Barcelona's dramatic 2-1 win in El Clasico before the international break, LaLiga looks done and dusted at the top with the Blaugrana 12 points clear.

The supercomputer also reckons Atletico Madrid are nearly guaranteed third (80.3 per cent), leaving what is effectively a two-horse race for fourth.

Real Sociedad have fourth at the moment and are 43.7 per cent likely to finish there, though Real Betis (36.7 per cent) aim to push them all the way.

At the other end, Elche are given no more than a 0.1 per cent chance of getting out of the bottom three after taking just 13 points from 26 games.

Otherwise, relegation is difficult to call. Almeria in 19th are only six points behind Real Mallorca in 11th, meaning there are a host of clubs who could yet get dragged into a fight for their lives.

There are two particularly big names among those potentially in trouble. Valencia are in the bottom three and have a 21.9 per cent chance of being relegated, while Sevilla – who are on their third coach of the season after sacking Jorge Sampaoli – are only two points clear of safety.

The computer says Man Utd's next Europa League opponents only have a 5.8 per cent probability of going down, however.

 

Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain seemingly have little to worry about in Ligue 1, with the supercomputer calculating their title chances at 98 per cent.

The tiny hint of doubt gives Marseille (1.8 per cent) and Lens (0.2 per cent) a bit of hope – but even then, it's presumably nothing more than a pipe dream.

There is a similar degree of certainty at the bottom, where four teams will be relegated ahead of the league's size being reduced to 18 clubs next term.

Angers, with 10 points from 28 games, cannot get out of the bottom four according to the calculations, and the other three positions are currently taken up by Ajaccio, Troyes and Auxerre.

Brest and Strasbourg aren't out of the woods yet either, though the supercomputer believes those in the relegation zone are the ones most likely to drop into Ligue 2.

 

Serie A

If there's one league in Europe that's got a foregone conclusion at the top, it's Serie A.

Napoli have more than a 99.9 per cent chance of winning a first Scudetto since 1990, with the unrelenting Partenopei a whopping 19 points clear of second already.

The race for Champions League qualification promises to be a little more tense.

Eleven points is the gap between Lazio in second and Juventus in seventh. While the Bianconeri are very much outsiders, the other five teams have at least a 15 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.

Lazio, Inter and Milan appear to be the most likely to take those spots, though Roma and Atalanta will fancy their chances of putting a cat among the pigeons.

In the relegation fight, there's a rather clearer picture.

Cremonese and Sampdoria look doomed, while Hellas Verona in 18th are five points adrift of safety, giving them just an 18.8 per cent probability of avoiding relegation.

 

The Ashes is coming up this year, and so too is the Cricket World Cup.

But the roaring success of the Indian Premier League means its 16th season is anticipated on a similar level to those totemic events on the cricket calendar.

And why not? There is no greater franchise competition in cricket, featuring star names from across the globe playing to vast crowds and huge television audiences.

A measure of the boom in IPL popularity came when its broadcast rights were sold in the wake of last year's tournament, with five-year deals bringing in 48,390.5 crore (£4.8billion), testament to the tournament's enormous appeal.

Among leagues worldwide, only the NFL is said to have bigger per-game TV deals, with the spectacle of T20 cricket becoming a big winner with spectators, sponsors, broadcasters and advertisers.

Heading into the 2023 season, which begins on Friday with an eye-catching tussle between defending champions Gujarat Titans and 2021 winners Chennai Super Kings, Stats Perform has identified potential key storylines for the new campaign.

How can Buttler follow his MVP season?

Jos Buttler had a staggering campaign last time out for Rajasthan Royals, hitting 863 runs in 17 innings at an average of 57.53, with four centuries to his name. That was as many centuries as everyone else in the IPL combined managed to score.

He finished 247 runs ahead of KL Rahul, who was second on the batting list. Buttler cracked 83 fours and 45 sixes, and he has since been appointed England's white-ball captain.

This is a huge year for Buttler, with England defending their title at the World Cup, and all eyes will be on the 32-year-old to see how he contributes for the Royals.

Chris Gayle, in 2011 and 2012, is the only batter to have finished as top scorer in consecutive IPL seasons.

This is a league that brings explosive moments, and Australian bowler Pat Cummins surprisingly managed the fastest fifty with the bat last year, achieving the feat from 14 balls for Kolkata Knight Riders against Mumbai Indians.

With the ball, Buttler's Rajasthan team-mate Yuzvendra Chahal took a league-leading 27 wickets, at an average of 19.51 and with a 7.75 economy rate. He was the only bowler to take a hat-trick in the 2022 IPL, doing so against KKR.

The economy rate king was two-time former MVP Sunil Narine, who gave up an average of 5.57 runs in his 56 overs, albeit taking just a modest nine wickets.

CSK seek immediate statement win

Gujarat were champions in their debut season last time around, while defending champions Chennai finished a miserable ninth out of 10 teams.

This time CSK are determined to start strongly and banish memories of 2022, and one way or another it promises to be a memorable campaign.

It appears likely to be MS Dhoni's final IPL campaign, with the 41-year-old giant of the game and former India captain reportedly considering whether to call time on his illustrious playing career.

Dhoni would want to go out on a high, and in the hope of building a winning team CSK have taken an expensive plunge by bringing in England Test captain Ben Stokes.

There are suggestions Stokes could inherit Dhoni's talisman status at CSK, although there has been an early blow with the all-rounder not expected to bowl in the early stages of the tournament due to concern over his left knee.

CSK suffered another setback to their bowling department when they lost New Zealand fast bowler Kyle Jamieson to a back injury, replacing him with South Africa paceman Sisanda Magala.

Could pulling the Short straw work out well for Punjab Kings?

Jonny Bairstow would have been lining up for Punjab Kings, but a freak golf course injury continues to keep the England wicketkeeper-batter out of action.

In his place comes Australian Matthew Short, who has yet to play international cricket or feature in the IPL, but the 27-year-old is experiencing quite a moment in his career.

Short was player of the tournament in Australia's Big Bash League, the domestic T20 competition, when he scored 458 runs for Adelaide Strikers and became just the third player in 12 seasons to hit 400 runs and take 10 wickets in a single season.

He will fancy stepping up to IPL level and continuing his rich run of form, and joins a franchise that has seen significant change since finishing sixth last year. Punjab have a new captain and new coach, with Shikhar Dhawan and Trevor Bayliss replacing Mayank Agarwal and Anil Kumble.

PBKS will hope Short makes a long-lasting impact, while they are trusting a huge investment in Sam Curran pays off after making the England all-rounder the most expensive player in IPL history, landing him in the draft for 18.5 Cr (£1.85million).

Changes across the board

A year is a long time in the IPL, and there have been a host of new appointments.

Australian veteran and IPL master blaster David Warner has taken over as captain of Delhi Capitals due to Rishabh Pant being ruled out while he recovers from the major car accident he experienced in December.

Brendon McCullum's move to coach England means Kolkata needed a new man in charge, and they have brought in Chandrakant Pandit, while Brian Lara has taken over from Tom Moody with Sunrisers Hyderabad, and Mark Boucher will pull the strings with Mumbai Indians after Mahela Jayawardene became global head of performance.

With his strike against Curacao on Tuesday, Lionel Messi reached another landmark by scoring 100 goals for Argentina.

The 35-year-old brought up the milestone in style, receiving a 20th-minute pass from Giovani Lo Celso before jinking past two Curacao defenders and rifling in a low right-foot finish.

The man considered by many to be the greatest footballer of all time had come in for some criticism over the years for his performances at international level.

That was until he led Argentina to Copa America success in 2021 and followed that up at last year's World Cup, starring as La Albiceleste recovered from a shock opening defeat to Saudi Arabia to beat defending champions France in the final on penalties.

Of course, the sheer volume of his goals has been breathtaking, with only Cristiano Ronaldo and Ali Daei scoring more in international men's football.

But Stats Perform picked out five individual strikes that were particularly memorable.

Argentina v Mexico (July 11, 2007)

Having only just turned 20, Messi was expected to win the Copa America for his country in 2007.

Ultimately, Argentina were beaten in the final by Brazil, but not before Messi had graced the stage with a sumptuous lob in their 3-0 win against Mexico in the semi-finals, being fed on the right of the penalty before an outrageous lob over Oswaldo Sanchez into the far corner.

Argentina v Brazil (June 9, 2012)

The two great rivals faced each other in New Jersey as they prepared for the 2012 Olympic Games in London, and a topsy-turvy contest had already seen Messi score twice.

In the 84th minute and with the score tied at 3-3, Messi went as trademark as possible, picking up the ball on the right just into the Brazil half before dribbling for goal. He cut inside the nearest defender on the edge of the box and curled a shot into the top-left corner of the net.

Argentina v Paraguay (September 7, 2012)

Just a few months later, Messi was at it from distance again, this time even further out as he showed off his supreme free-kick taking ability.

With Argentina leading Paraguay 2-1 in their World Cup qualifier, Messi lined up a set-piece effort a little over 30 yards out, whipping the ball over the wall and in off the goalkeeper's left-hand post.

Argentina v Iran (June 21, 2014)

In their second group game of the 2014 World Cup, Argentina had struggled to break down a resolute Iran side who were on the verge of securing a famous 0-0 draw and valuable point.

That was until Messi picked up the ball on the right in the 91st minute in Belo Horizonte. He darted inside, as he so often does, and curled a sumptuous effort past Alireza Haghighi from some 25 yards, the ball nestling in the bottom-left corner.

Argentina v Mexico (November 26, 2022)

Having already lost to Saudi Arabia in their first game at the 2022 World Cup, Argentina could not find a way past Mexico in the first hour of their second encounter either.

Or, they couldn't until their captain stepped up.

With raucous fans urging them on at Lusail Stadium, Messi received a pass from Angel Di Maria before hitting a shot from outside the box low and hard to Guillermo Ochoa's left, lighting the touchpaper that would ultimately end with the trophy in his hands at the end of the campaign.

 

Tottenham officially parted company with head coach Antonio Conte on Sunday after 16 months in charge.

Conte guided Spurs to a top-four finish in the Premier League upon taking over last season, but a 2022-23 campaign that promised plenty has proved incredibly underwhelming.

Spurs may again occupy fourth place, though some patchy form – particularly on their travels – has allowed Newcastle United to move to within two points with two games in hand.

After exiting the FA Cup and Champions League in quick succession, Conte's position was called into question amid suggestions he was seeking a way out of the club.

And after letting a two-goal lead slip in a 3-3 draw with bottom side Southampton in what turned out to be his final game in charge, the Italian criticised his players for being "selfish" and "not playing with a heart".

But does the blame for Spurs' latest trophy-less season really lie with Conte? After all, he is the seventh permanent boss to fail to win a trophy since their 2008 EFL Cup triumph.

Here, two Stats Perform writers argue the case for and against Conte's exit.

 

THE CASE AGAINST (ED HARDY)

The more things change, the more they stay the same

The boss is often shown the door because it is easier to remove one person than a full squad of players. But how many more world-class coaches do these Tottenham players have to go through before it is realised that the fault lies with them?

Over the years, much of this squad has been responsible for the downfall of Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho. Although the two managers were not completely void of any blame, it was not their fault that these players suffered a cup exit to League Two Colchester United, let a three-goal lead slip in the final 10 minutes against arch rivals West Ham, or went crashing out of the Europa League with a shock 3-0 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb.

Each time the boss played his strongest players, but embarrassment still occurred. Those embarrassments have continued into this season. How was Conte to blame for Tottenham's FA Cup defeat to Sheffield United when he was not even there? He was still in Italy recovering from surgery. Spurs did not even play a much-changed side that day either, as most first-choice players started, and yet they still lost.

 

From kick-off, the Bramall Lane crowd were right on the Spurs players and they did not like it. After the draw at Southampton, one of the many things Conte said was that his players do not want to play under pressure. He was right. There is a lot of quality at the club, but that is overshadowed by too many players who are not good enough. Japhet Tanganga, Davinson Sanchez, Clement Lenglet, Ryan Sessegnon and Lucas Moura, just to name a few, are not up to the standard and yet apparently that was Conte's fault?

Patience was what was required for Conte to turn the situation around – it took Mikel Arteta three years to do so at Arsenal, for example – and get a squad capable of challenging.

However, that has not happened in this case and once again a world-class coach – who won a league title with Inter in Serie A the season before joining Spurs – has been dragged down by his players.

Too much deadweight

It is important to first debunk a myth that Conte was not backed by the board, because he was. From Dejan Kulusevski to Richarlison to Pedro Porro, and many more in between, the club bought quality players in every transfer window Conte was at the club. But the problems lie way beyond that.  The mentality of a football club is set from the top, and it seems under chairman Daniel Levy that Tottenham lack the nous needed to win big trophies.

Simply achieving European football has always been considered a success in his eyes, and that mentality has seeped through the club. One EFL Cup in 22 years of Levy says it all. 

There is also the problem of outgoings. Too many average players have stayed at Spurs for far too long. For example, Sanchez and Lucas have both been there for over five years, Tanganga has been a first-team regular for four seasons, while Eric Dier and Ben Davies are approaching a decade at the club.

 

Why has Levy allowed these players to stick around under big contracts? That is not to even mention all the other deadwood – Harry Winks, Giovani Lo Celso, etc – still technically on Tottenham's books, but on loan at clubs across Europe.

Although Conte was not completely innocent in all of this, these are some of the players he had to contend with and it was never going to be the type of fix that happened overnight.

 

THE CASE FOR (DANIEL LEWIS)

Negative tactics and questionable selection calls

As someone who can boast five league titles across spells with Juventus, Inter and Chelsea in Italy and England, Conte is rightly lauded as an elite coach. With elite coaches often comes excess baggage, and in this instance Conte's latest rant – having already backtracked after a similar tirade earlier in the month – was always going to be the final straw. 

The Italian was eager to point the blame at his players, yet Tottenham managed just five shots on target across 180 minutes of their Champions League last-16 defeat to Milan, despite needing a goal from early on in the tie following Brahim Diaz's decisive strike. Conte's decision to effectively tell his side not to attack played a bigger part in their disappointing exit than any off-day from certain players. Likewise in the FA Cup elimination at the hands of Sheffield United when naming undoubted star player Harry Kane among the substitutes – another major call that backfired.

Spurs boast a talented squad – they are fourth in the Premier League after all – but there is no doubt they are stronger in attacking sense than defensively. You have to go down as far as Wolves in 13th to find a side that has conceded more goals than Tottenham this season. In their most recent full season prior to Conte's arrival, they had conceded just 30 goals at the same stage. Conte's pragmatic approach, which fans would reluctantly accept if it equated to trophies, did not make Spurs any stronger defensively. It was all pain and no gain.

 

Backed by the board

Conte was afforded the type of backing that predecessors Mourinho and Pochettino could only have dreamt of. The reason expectations were so high at Spurs this campaign was because of the business they conducted early in the transfer window when bringing in the likes of Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma, Richarlison and – whether he wanted him or not – Djed Spence. Couple this with Kane staying at the club and Spurs' squad was arguably as strong as it has ever been.

There was also some truth to Conte's comments that Tottenham have perhaps become too used to failing – relatively speaking – regardless of who is in the dugout. But this was exactly the reason the Italian was brought on board and paid so handsomely by Levy – to turn around that endless cycle of falling short of landing silverware and at the same time continue to challenge for a top-four spot in the Premier League.

Yet Conte did not come close to lifting a cup and bowed out with a points-per-game return of 1.88, which puts him only marginally ahead of Andre Villas-Boas (1.83), who lasted two games fewer in charge of Tottenham. That, ultimately, is the legacy he is leaving behind.

Bayern Munich shocked the Bundesliga by making a dramatic change in the dugout, replacing Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel.

The decision came with Borussia Dortmund posing a serious threat to Bayern's hopes of an 11th consecutive league title.

Tuchel arrives with Bayern sitting one point off the Bundesliga summit and through to the Champions League quarter-finals, with the former BVB and Chelsea boss facing several pressing tasks.

Fending off his former club's challenge for domestic glory and plotting a route past Pep Guardiola's Manchester City will be among the immediate concerns, but there are others requiring Tuchel's attention.

From the futures of club stalwarts Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller, to the need to suitably replace Robert Lewandowski, there will be plenty to keep Tuchel occupied until the end of the season and beyond.

Here, Stats Perform looks at five of the most pressing tasks facing Tuchel on his return to Germany.

Fix Bayern's sloppy backline

While Bayern boast the Bundesliga's best defensive record with 27 goals conceded this term, Tuchel – who was successful in making Chelsea tough to beat in his last managerial assignment – will be keen to examine a series of shortcomings at the back.

Having beaten Augsburg 5-3 in Nagelsmann's penultimate game at the helm, Bayern suffered a damaging 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen last time out, with Benjamin Pavard and Dayot Upamecano clumsily conceding a pair of second-half penalties.

With Nagelsmann known for employing a high defensive line and adopting an aggressive approach, Bayern have often appeared too open this campaign.

Of the Bundesliga-high 13 errors leading to shots made by Bayern players this season, three have resulted in goals, while last year's big-money recruit Matthijs de Ligt is yet to establish himself as a dominant defensive presence.

Tuchel's Chelsea kept five clean sheets in seven Champions League knockout games en route to being crowned European champions in 2021 – he will be confident of having a similar impact in his new job, given the defensive talent at his disposal.

 

Make crucial Neuer decision

The most controversial incident in Bayern's season before the change of coach came in January, when captain Neuer hit out at the club's decision to fire close friend and goalkeeping coach Toni Tapalovic.

Those comments were met with a furious reaction from the club's hierarchy, throwing Neuer's future in Munich into doubt.

A series of injuries – the latest a broken leg sustained during a skiing holiday – have limited Neuer to 16 appearances across all competitions this term, and with Yann Sommer's arrival giving Bayern two top-class goalkeepers to choose from, Tuchel has a decision to make.

While Neuer boasts a better save percentage (75.44 per cent) than Sommer (64.1) for Bayern this term, the 2014 World Cup winner will be 37 by the time he returns to fitness, and there may not be room for both shot-stoppers in Bayern's long-term plans.

Find Lewandowski's successor

No discussion of Bayern's inconsistent season would be complete without a mention of their failure to find an adequate replacement for goal machine Lewandowski.

Lewandowski left for Barcelona last year, having led the Bundesliga's scoring charts in six of his eight seasons with Bayern (2015–16, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22).

The Poland international hit 35 goals in as many league appearances in his final season with the Bavarian giants. This term, Jamal Musiala is their top Bundesliga marksman with 11 goals, one ahead of Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting.

While having five separate players on double figures across all competitions this term is no bad thing (Choupo-Moting, Musiala, Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry and Sadio Mane), an established successor to Lewandowski is surely required.

 

Solve the Mane conundrum

On a related note, getting the best of last year's marquee arrival Mane will also be high on Tuchel's to-do list, with the Senegal attacker yet to hit the heights he reached at Liverpool.

Injuries and mixed form have meant Mane has started just 14 of Bayern's 25 league games, failing to net in any competition since a 6-2 win over Mainz in October.

Tuchel's previous success with a fluid forward line could bode well for Mane. In his only full Premier League campaign with Chelsea, the Blues were only outscored by Manchester City and Liverpool, with a plethora of players chipping in as the returning Romelu Lukaku fell out of favour.

 

Examine Muller's role

While the acquisition of a centre-forward will surely be at the forefront of Bayern's plans at the end of the season, the Bavarians' chances of short-term success could hinge on finding a regular role for Muller.

Muller, who became Bayern's all-time leading outfield appearance maker in the Bundesliga last month, has started just 14 league games this campaign, but his tally of 11 goal contributions (four goals, seven assists) in just 1,062 minutes demonstrates his lasting quality.

With Nagelsmann alternating between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2 shapes in recent weeks, Muller has featured in a number 10 role – where he previously thrived under Hansi Flick – and in a front two.

With high-stakes clashes against Dortmund and City on the horizon, Tuchel's first month at the helm could prove decisive, and finding a place for the experienced Muller could help the new boss make a flying start.

 

It's fair to say Harry Kane was something of a late bloomer on the international stage, at least in comparison to the man he has surpassed as England's all-time leading goalscorer.

While Wayne Rooney was named in Euro 2004's Team of the Tournament at the age of 18, Kane was 22 by the time he first appeared at a major international competition.

Despite Rooney's head start, the prospect of Kane beating his record of 53 England goals has seemed inevitable for some time after the Tottenham striker took on a talismanic role for Gareth Southgate's side. 

Kane could have broken the record at last the 2022 World Cup. He had already scored one penalty in the quarter-final against France and, with England 2-1 down, he stepped up to take another at Al Bayt Stadium.

Yet his effort soared over, England's chances of World Cup success crashing down around their captain.

Fitting, then, that it was from the penalty spot that Kane broke Rooney's record by netting his 54th England goal, as he put the Three Lions 2-0 up ahead Italy in their first match of 2023.

He has now cemented his place in the pantheon of England greats.

With Kane assuming his place as the country's greatest goalscorer, Stats Perform looks at the legacy he has built on the international stage.

Stepping out of Rooney's shadow and repaying Southgate's faith

Kane wasted no time in introducing himself on the international stage.

Having replaced Rooney as a substitute against Lithuania in March 2015, the Tottenham striker needed just 79 seconds to net in a 4-0 win.

Since 1872, Kane is one of just six players to score inside two minutes on his England debut, while that strike made him the first to do so since Gerry Hitchens in 1961.

 

However, after England's dismal Euro 2016 exit at the hands of Iceland, Kane had scored only five goals in 17 international appearances. Retrospectively, it wasn't quite the flying start one may have expected from a future great.

While Kane entered that tournament having won the Premier League's Golden Boot, he was uninspired as Roy Hodgson sought to find space for both Rooney and Daniel Sturridge in an unbalanced team. 

That stunning defeat in Nice, as well as a corruption scandal that later led to the departure of Sam Allardyce after just one game at the helm, made 2016 a year to forget for England.

However, the appointment of Southgate that November, coupled with the new manager's decision to drop a declining Rooney the following March, set the stage for a dramatic improvement from the Three Lions' new talisman.  

All but five of Kane's 54 international goals have been scored under Southgate, the highest tally scored by any England player under a particular manager by some distance – Gary Lineker is second with 35 goals under Bobby Robson.

The man for the big occasion 

The idea that the England shirt can weigh heavily upon those who regularly star at club level has been a common theme for decades.

Of Rooney's 53 international goals, for instance, only one was scored at a World Cup – an ultimately inconsequential effort in 2014's decisive 2-1 loss to Uruguay in Sao Paulo.

The Manchester United great may have hit the net seven times across his six major tournaments, but four came in his remarkable breakout campaign at Euro 2004, and he was continually criticised for failing to carry his club form onto the international stage.

Rooney is not the only England star to suffer that fate. Frank Lampard scored three times at Euro 2004 but did not net at another major tournament. Fellow midfielder Steven Gerrard hit 21 goals for Three Lions, but just three came at tournaments. 

Despite arriving at the 2018 World Cup having plundered 30 goals across the 2017-18 Premier League season – his most prolific campaign in the competition – Kane was seemingly open to the same criticisms, but a Golden Boot-winning tournament changed perceptions.

 

Kane as England's tournament specialist

While defeats to Croatia in the 2018 World Cup semi-finals and Italy in the Euro 2020 final have left Southgate battling accusations of underachievement, England's very presence in some of the biggest international fixtures has owed much to Kane.

Kane's total of six goals in Russia was enough to see off the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Kylian Mbappe for the Golden Boot, and only Cristiano Ronaldo and Patrik Schick (both five) bettered his tally of four strikes as England went agonisingly close to Euro 2020 glory.

Having netted against Senegal and France at Qatar 2022, Kane's tally of 12 goals at major tournaments is an outright England record, beating Lineker's total of 10, which came exclusively at World Cups.

With Kane now having eight World Cup goals to his name and looking likely to participate in at least one more edition, the 29-year-old could also claim Lineker's status as England's top marksman in FIFA's flagship tournament.

Nevertheless, some might accuse him of "stat padding" against weak opponents. After all, Kane has scored more international goals against San Marino (five) than any other nation.

However, he has also often been the scourge of the world's elite, as England's old rivals Germany – the opponents for four of Kane's England goals – will attest. 

 

Cementing Kane's legacy: Does more history await in 2026? 

Brazil great Ronaldo, Miroslav Klose, Mario Kempes, Gerd Muller and Eusebio are among the legends to have claimed the honour of top-scoring at a World Cup. None of them – nor any other player – has done so at two separate tournaments.

Kane ultimately could not repeat his 2018 exploits in Qatar. But in terms of other records and future success, age is – just about – on his side. The Spurs striker will be 33 when the 2026 World Cup rolls around. He will likely have set a daunting target for any future England strikers to chase.

Troubling Klose's all-time record of 16 World Cup goals may be unrealistic but claiming a spot in the top five of that list – and beating Pele's tally of 12 – appears a plausible target. 

While Kane's England legacy may be chiefly judged on whether he can inspire the team to bring football home for the first time since 1966, his international goalscoring feats are worthy of lofty praise regardless.

If Kane wins a major trophy during his England career or not, his contribution on the big stage means he should be remembered as one of his country's best ever.

With Antonio Conte expected to leave Tottenham by the end of the week, attention is already turning to who might be next to try their hand at what continues to look a near-impossible job.

Spurs are a big club with a fabulous stadium, passionate fanbase and talented squad.

Despite the relative success of Harry Redknapp and Mauricio Pochettino in the last two decades, as well as investing in high-profile bosses Jose Mourinho and Conte, none have been able to bring silverware to the north London club.

The only trophy Spurs have claimed since the turn of the century was the EFL Cup in 2007-08, and any new manager/head coach will be tasked with ending that drought as soon as possible, as well as ensuring another season of Champions League football.

Stats Perform looks at some of the early favourites, with Conte seemingly on the brink.

Mauricio Pochettino

The Argentinian was a very popular figure during his time at White Hart Lane – and subsequently Wembley and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Pochettino may not have won a trophy, but he presided over two title challenges and the run to the 2019 Champions League final, which resulted in a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool.

He mostly got the best out of his players, too, and took many of them to another level.

His five-year reign included 113 wins from 202 Premier League games, a points-per-game (PPG) average of 1.89, very slightly higher than Conte's 1.88 (32 wins from 56 games).

Pochettino was eventually dismissed by chairman Daniel Levy after appearing to take the club as far as he could, so going back to him when still looking someone to take them to the next level might be a little backwards.

He would likely be a popular choice with the fans, though, and should at the very least provide some stability. Perhaps crucially, he might also be their best bet in convincing Harry Kane to stay.

Ryan Mason

It wouldn't technically be a return for Mason as he never actually left, taking on a first-team coach role after the end of his interim spell at the helm following the sacking of Mourinho in April 2021.

His second game in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final, but Mason arguably did well considering his lack of experience.

Given he only took charge of six matches, it seems a little pointless to stake a claim for Mason based on his own PPG record (2.0).

But the former Spurs midfielder is the heavy favourite for the job, even if only on a short-term basis again.

Similarly to Pochettino, the thinking behind that choice would most likely be stability and that decision makers at the club may feel the players are likely to respond positively to someone they already know.

Unless he performs spectacularly, appointing Mason would probably be followed by a full-time hire at the end of the season.

Thomas Tuchel

While Tuchel would be yet another former Chelsea boss taking the reins, following in the footsteps of Glenn Hoddle, Andre Villas-Boas, Mourinho and Conte, it's hard to argue with his credentials.

The German won 35 of 63 Premier League games with the Blues, a PPG average of 1.94, as well as winning the Champions League in 2021.

Considering Spurs are eager to win a first trophy since 2008, the fact Tuchel guided Chelsea to five finals – including the 2021 Club World Cup – in less than two years will no doubt appeal, even if he did lose three of them.

Tuchel reportedly left Stamford Bridge partly due to a disagreement on transfers with owner Todd Boehly, which may not bode well given Conte's consistent complaining about the way Spurs work in the market.

Either way, the man who shared a furious handshake with Conte earlier this season could well be the same person to replace the Italian in the Spurs dugout.

 

Luis Enrique

The former Real Madrid and Barcelona player most recently won 27 of 48 games as Spain head coach, but international football can be a different world to the top-level club game.

Luis Enrique was very successful in his last club job at Barca, though it admittedly helped having a front three of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar all at their peak.

He won two LaLiga titles, three Copa del Rey crowns, a Supercopa de Espana, a European Super Cup and a Club World Cup, as well as the 2014-15 Champions League as part of a historic treble.

Overall, Luis Enrique won 87 of his 114 LaLiga games (2.4 PPG), but it is difficult to compare this to counterparts at Spurs given Barca's relative dominance in Spain.

His record at Roma earlier in his career could be a better barometer, winning 16 of his 38 Serie A games in charge of the Giallorossi (1.5 PPG), before winning 14 of 38 LaLiga matches as head coach of Celta Vigo (1.3 PPG) before heading to Camp Nou. But how relevant are these spells now given he left Balaidos nine years ago?

Similarly, the fact he's not had a club job since 2017 might be seen as problematic by some fans, while it could also be argued he underachieved with Spain.

Roberto De Zerbi

De Zerbi has made his mark on the Premier League very quickly since replacing Graham Potter at Brighton and Hove Albion in September.

Brighton have thrived and find themselves in a genuine fight for Europe, with a top-four finish not out of the question at this stage as they sit seven points behind fourth-placed Spurs with three games in hand.

De Zerbi has won eight of his 19 Premier League games, while the Seagulls rank second in the Premier League for passing accuracy (86.9 per cent), average possession (62.1 per cent) and passes per sequence (4.5). They are also third for goals (35) and fifth for passes played into the opposition's box since his first game, highlighting an attack-minded approach that would certainly be appreciated by a frustrated Spurs fanbase.

Getting him out of Brighton will be easier said than done, however, having already lost one head coach this season, not to mention their renown for getting a good deal – Potter reportedly cost Chelsea £21.5million.

Spurs will almost certainly have to pay through the nose or look elsewhere.

Oliver Glasner

A surprise name that has emerged in recent days is that of Eintracht Frankfurt head coach Oliver Glasner, who impressed so many by leading the Bundesliga club to Europa League success last season.

Glasner made a promising start to his coaching career in his native Austria with Ried and LASK, before guiding Wolfsburg to seventh and fourth-placed finishes in the German top-flight.

He then made the switch to Eintracht ahead of the 2021-22 season. He could only guide them to 11th in the Bundesliga, winning just three of their 17 games in the second half of the campaign, but this came amid the backdrop of Europa League glory, eliminating Real Betis, Barcelona and West Ham before beating Rangers in the final on penalties.

Some reports suggest Levy has already contacted Glasner, whose contract expires in 2024.

This season, Eintracht sit sixth in the league and were recently knocked out of the Champions League last 16 by Napoli.

The first international window after a major tournament always offers the chance of a reset, with squads freshened up whether teams have failed or triumphed.

It gives coaches the opportunity to reassess as they build towards the next competition.

In Europe, qualifying for Euro 2024 begins, so there'll be a competitive edge to the majority of the fixtures.

It's an ideal time for newcomers to the squads to assert themselves. Here, Stats Perform looks at the players aiming to do just that.

 

ARGENTINA

Lionel Messi finally got his hands on the biggest trophy of them all last year, as he led Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar. Now, Lionel Scaloni will be looking to see what prospects he can bring into the squad as La Albiceleste aim to retain their Copa America title in 2024. Two friendlies against Panama and Curacao should give him the ideal chance to test out some newcomers.

Nehuen Perez is enjoying a fine season in Serie A with Udinese and will be looking to improve on his one Argentina appearance, while Manchester City youngster Maximo Perrone has received his first international call. Perrone joined City from Velez Sarsfield in January, having only made his professional debut last year.

BRAZIL

Like Argentina, Brazil have a friendly – just the one – on the cards this month, though it is against World Cup semi-finalists Morocco. That should prove a tough test for the first match of Ramon Menezes' interim tenure.

With Brazil still reeling from their quarter-final exit in Qatar, and key players such as Neymar and Richarlison injured, Menezes has named plenty of fresh faces in his squad.

Among them is Rony, who has already scored six goals for Palmeiras in 2023, following a haul of 23 last year. Joao Gomes, who joined Wolves in January and has already netted in the Premier League, will also be hoping to make an impression, as will Andrey Santos. The 18-year-old is back on loan at Vasco de Gama from Chelsea but now has a chance to win his first cap.

ENGLAND

There were no new call-ups in Gareth Southgate's squad for England's Euro 2024 qualifiers against Italy and Ukraine, but Ivan Toney was something of a surprise inclusion.

That's not due to Toney's form – only Erling Haaland (28) and Harry Kane (21) have scored more Premier League goals than the Brentford striker (16) this season – but because he is under investigation over an alleged breach of Football Association betting rules.

Toney was included in Southgate's final squad before the World Cup but did not make the cut for Qatar, and has not yet made a Three Lions appearance. Given his inclusion this time around, the 27-year-old, who has averaged a league goal every 140 minutes this season, will be hoping to make his mark.

 

FRANCE

Kylian Mbappe is the new France captain following Hugo Lloris' international retirement, which has left a spot to fill in goal. Milan's Mike Maignan is the natural successor though has struggled with injury this season. Meanwhile, Brice Samba received his first call-up as one of the three shot-stoppers.

Samba left Nottingham Forest to join Lens last year and the 28-year-old has impressed in Ligue 1. His 78.1 save percentage is the third-best in the division out of goalkeepers to have played at least five games, while according to Opta's expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) model, he has prevented 5.2 goals, the fourth-best total in France's top tier.

 

Khephren Thuram, son of 1998 World Cup winner Lilian Thuram and brother of France striker Marcus Thuram, is having a superb season at Nice and could look to force his way into Didier Deschamps plans for midfield, especially with the injury issues of N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba.

GERMANY

As hosts of next year's Euros, there'll be no competitive matches for Germany this month, though Hansi Flick's team will be looking to atone for their horror show in Qatar. Six uncapped players have been called up by Flick for friendlies against Peru and Belgium, including Milan defender Malick ThiawKevin Schade, on loan at Brentford from Freiburg, is another newcomer in the forward line.

Marius Wolf has earned his first international opportunity at the age of 27. He has only scored one goal and provided one assist in 24 games this season, so perhaps he won't be the player who goes on to propel Germany to glory in 2024.

ITALY

There's three new faces in Italy's squad, though Roberto Mancini has been lamenting what he sees as a lack of homegrown talent at his disposal. Italy, of course, won the delayed Euro 2020, only to then fail to qualify for the World Cup.

Of the three uncapped players in this selection, Mateo Retegui is certainly one to watch. The 23-year-old, Argentina-born striker holds dual citizenship and plays in the South American nation for Tigre.

Retegui has scored 29 goals since the start of last season. Wladimiro Falcone and Alessandro Buongiorno are the other players who could win their first caps.

NETHERLANDS

Ronald Koeman has given five uncapped players an opportunity to impress in the first squad of his second spell in charge and Sven Botman is undoubtedly the biggest name. The Newcastle United defender was a surprise exclusion from Louis van Gaal's World Cup squad, but the 23-year-old centre-back has been given the nod by Koeman.

Botman has helped Newcastle keep nine clean sheets in the Premier League, while he has made more blocks (15) than any of his defensive club-mates, though he will be hoping to avoid a mistake such as the one he made to gift Nottingham Forest a goal last week. 

Xavi Simons, meanwhile, will be looking to make an impact further forward. The 19-year-old has scored 13 goals and provided six assists in the Eredivisie this season.

 

SPAIN

Most of the players on this list are on the younger side, but new Spain coach Luis de la Fuente has handed a first call-up to 32-year-old Joselu.

The Espanyol forward, previously of Newcastle United and Stoke City, is one of LaLiga's leading scorers this season with 12 goals. Better late than never, perhaps?

Osasuna's David Garcia is another newcomer, while Real Betis striker Borja Iglesias – who like Joselu has netted 12 times in LaLiga – was called up in place of the injured Gerard Moreno on Sunday.

Rafael Nadal dropped out of the world's top 10 men's tennis rankings on Monday, the first time he has not been a presence there since his arrival on April 25, 2005.

After struggling with a hip injury since the Australian Open, Nadal has been unable to play much in the early months of 2023, causing his ranking to drop to 13th.

The 22-time grand slam winner has been an ever-present among the elite of the men's game for the best part of two decades.

Having spent half of his life as a top-10 player, Nadal will be determined to get back there once his injury has healed and prove there is still plenty of life in him yet, though may also be a tad sad to realise that new world number one and compatriot Carlos Alcaraz wasn't even two years old in April 2005.

In the interest of nostalgia, Stats Perform has taken a gander back at how the world looked then, and what has changed since.

The Special One makes his mark

Jose Mourinho made quite the impact when he became Chelsea manager at the start of the 2004-05 season, guiding the then Roman Abramovich-owned Blues to their first Premier League crown, and first English top-flight title since 1954-55.

After coining his own moniker of the "Special One" at his first press conference, Mourinho set about living up to it, also adding the EFL Cup in his first season at Stamford Bridge.

Two days after Nadal had entered the top 10 though, Chelsea hosted Liverpool in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final, drawing 0-0 at home, before losing 1-0 in the return leg at Anfield to suffer elimination at the hands of their Premier League rivals.

Mourinho did not take kindly to Luis Garcia's goal being awarded, with goal-line technology not available back then, something the now 60-year-old brought up again as recently as last week.

The Portuguese coach went on to have a storied career that is still going, having won the inaugural Europa Conference League with Roma last season.

He remains as outspoken as ever though, aiming a dig at Roma's rivals Lazio after their elimination from Europe ahead of the Rome derby on Sunday, which Lazio won 1-0 before Biancocelesti defender Alessio Romagnoli revealed: "We were already very energised before this match, his quotes hyped us up even more."

Tennant's Who-per

It was also a different time in television, pre-dating the streaming services so many rely on today, not least tennis players on the road, such as Nadal.

David Tennant was announced as the 10th doctor in Doctor Who, while the first UK series of The Apprentice came to a conclusion and adult-themed animated series Family Guy returned due to popular demand after initially being cancelled following its third season.

Nearly 18 years later, Tennant has reprised his role in Doctor Who, The Apprentice is airing its 17th series in the UK and Family Guy is airing its 21st season in the United States.

The more things change, the more they stay the same... but you can at least now stream all three shows on demand.

Charles and Camilla get married

In April 2005, Prince Charles and Camilla Parker-Bowles tied the knot, getting married at a civil ceremony at Windsor Guildhall.

It is fair to say quite a bit has happened in the British royal family since then, with Princes William and Harry both getting married to fairly different receptions.

With the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II in September at the age of 96, King Charles III took the throne, and will have his coronation on May 6.

After Alcaraz became the youngest player to end the year as world number one in December, King Charles III will officially become the oldest person to accede to the British throne.

When Nokia ruled the world

If there is one area that has advanced almost immeasurably in the last 18 years, it is phone technology.

In 2005, it was still around two years before the dawn of the smartphone. Statistically, it is likely that even stars like Nadal had to make do with a Nokia 1110, the best-selling phone of the year.

Flip-phones were also becoming popular, with the Motorola RAZR V3 and Samsung Z500 among them, and both companies have revived the design in recent times, with the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 4 one of the biggest selling phones of today.

Who knows, perhaps Nadal's superfast reflexes and anticipation came from logging hours and hours of practice playing Snake.

Let's see Alcaraz do that.

It all came down to this. El Clasico at Camp Nou on Sunday was Real Madrid's final realistic hope of reigniting LaLiga's title race, but Franck Kessie's dramatic late winner puts Barcelona practically out of sight.

While Barca coach Xavi had been keen to downplay the idea of this contest being in any way "definitive", only going as far as suggesting victory would be a "strong blow", it's difficult to imagine him actually believing those comments now.

Kessie's neat strike secured Barca a thrilling 2-1 win and their celebrations said it all. This was no standard Clasico victory – it was a win that should bury Madrid's title hopes once and for all, putting the Blaugrana a massive 12 points clear with as many games to go.

Were it any other team then perhaps Madrid might still retain a modicum of belief, but this is a Barca side that have only conceded five LaLiga goals all season to teams not named 'Real Madrid'.

What hope do they really have of Barca dropping at least 12 points? After all, no team has ever even overturned a nine-point lead at this stage in a season, let alone a 12-point deficit.

 

Yet it had all started so well.

It was particularly fitting to see the opening goal involve the two men routinely identified as the key battle in Clasicos these days.

Vinicius Junior has become a talismanic figure for Madrid, while Ronald Araujo has developed into one of the most dependable and formidable defenders in Europe.

Their tussles are now something of a feature in El Clasico, and this instalment produced a major early flashpoint.

Vinicius was allowed to run with the ball in the Barca box, and although he initially moved away from goal, he then jinked right towards the byline, his clipped left-footed cross hitting the head of Araujo and glancing past the helpless Marc-Andre ter Stegen.

While fortuitous, it was a swift reminder of the danger posed by Madrid's Brazilian winger after Barca had begun the game with a flourish.

 

The game's other Brazilian winger looked Barca's best bet to get on the scoresheet. A brilliant header – pushed away by Thibaut Courtois – a few moments before Araujo's own goal was Raphinha's first involvement.

He then produced a series of crosses before the half-hour mark, causing plenty of problems in the Madrid defence as Raphinha looked to test their suitability against an aerial bombardment.

Vintage Barca? Perhaps not, but there were signs of encouragement at least, with Andreas Christensen heading one such delivery agonisingly wide.

Raphinha's new-found influence and confidence was clear to see, and he then looked to take matters into his own hands as he shook off Nacho Fernandez and forced Courtois into a fingertip save.

So, just as it was unsurprising to see Vinicius instigate the opener, Raphinha playing a part in the equaliser was similarly predictable.

Well, sort of. Initially he drew cackles of derision from Madrid fans and simultaneous groans of bewilderment from the Barca supporters as his air shot saw a glorious chance go begging. But a few seconds later, on the stroke of half-time, it was his effort that was blocked right to Sergi Roberto, who coolly slotted out of Courtois' reach – 1.1.

It was a goal that seemingly restored real poise to Barca at the start of the second half, with Madrid initially looking even less of a threat than before the interval.

Part of Los Blancos' problem appeared to stem from a lack of invention. Everything went through Vinicius, and he was – for a while – the only Madrid player who looked likely to worry Barca.

As lively as he was, their dependency on him made Madrid largely one-dimensional, and unfortunately for them Vinicius couldn't do it all on his own.

For a moment that looked irrelevant. Substitute Marco Asensio stroked into the bottom-left corner in the 81st minute after meeting Dani Carvajal's pass. Suddenly Madrid's title challenge was reignited, only for those hopes to be brutally extinguished by a VAR check – Asensio was fractionally offside.

 

The sheer gut-wrenching disappointment sweeping across the visiting team was almost tangible. They'd gone from bedlam to broken in a matter of seconds, and what followed was a further, and surely fatal, body-blow.

Kessie finished from Alejandro Balde's cut-back to essentially leave Madrid needing two goals in stoppage time to salvage any semblance of hope.

That was beyond them.

Madrid will now have to carry on pretending to believe the near-impossible is plausible. In reality, it's game over.

After coming through part one of a huge week unscathed – albeit with Karim Benzema suffering an injury scare – Real Madrid now turn focus to a huge showdown with fierce rivals Barcelona at Camp Nou.

While the odds were massively stacked in Madrid's favour when protecting a 5-2 lead in their Champions League last-16 tie with Liverpool, going through 6-2 aggregate winners, the opposite is true in their LaLiga title battle with Barca.

Madrid have struggled for consistency domestically and are nine points adrift of the leaders with 12 rounds of games to play after this weekend. Put simply, it is win-or-bust for Los Blancos' outside title hopes.

Carlo Ancelotti's side have a great recent record against their Clasico foes in the league but, regardless of Sunday's result, is it already too late in terms of getting their LaLiga campaign back on track?

Stats Perform looks at how the two sides are shaping up heading into their fourth of five meetings this season, and whether Madrid have any realistic chance of catching Barca.
 

Camp Nou the fortress

Madrid have dropped points too frequently this campaign, particularly away from home. Indeed, they have won just three of their past seven league games outside of the Bernabeu, failing to win back-to-back since October.

Barcelona, by comparison, have won four in a row at Camp Nou without conceding and have taken 32 points from a possible 36 at home this campaign.

Only Paris Saint-Germain can boast a better home record across Europe's top five leagues, collecting three points more than Barca, albeit having played one game more.

On the face of it, then, Los Blancos have their work cut out picking up a point this weekend, never mind the three points they desperately need. 

 

But Madrid have won five of their past six league games against Barca, including their past two visits to Camp Nou – only once before, between January 1963 and February 1965, have they won three in a row there in the competition.

This Barcelona side is a lot different to the ones Madrid faced in those past two seasons, though, as was clear to see in their two recent cup encounters.

The Catalans claimed a 3-1 win in the Supercopa de Espana final in January and a 1-0 win in their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg two weeks ago, with the second leg at Camp Nou to come in early April.

Those 1-0 wins are something they have become accustomed to in the league, too, with nine of their 21 victories coming by that scoreline – more than they have ever recorded in a full season.

Xavi's side have found a way to break down and see out wins against any type of opponent, and their four-year wait for a league title is surely therefore coming to an end.
 

Madrid far from majestic

Opta's prediction model certainly suggests as much, giving Barca a 93.2 per cent chance of finishing top and Madrid just a 6.7 per cent likelihood of overhauling their great rivals.

However, given the six-point swing on the line on Sunday, those figures could change fairly drastically should the visitors win again at Camp Nou.

 

That is why this meeting is so important to both Barca and Madrid; effectively the final chance for any sort of jeopardy to be injected into the title tussle between Spain's biggest two clubs.

But not only will Los Blancos have to beat Barca, they will realistically have to string together a long run of wins and require Xavi's men to drop at least six more points. 

On the four occasions Barca have dropped points this season, they have responded with winning streaks of seven, five, seven and two, with this latest run still ongoing. 

Madrid, meanwhile, have not put together a winning run of more than four games in the league since mid-October, losing to the likes of Rayo Vallecano, Real Mallorca and Villarreal since then.
 

So you're telling me there's a chance?

Ancelotti has repeatedly vowed Madrid will fight Barca all the way, while opposite number Xavi has predicted the title race may go the distance.

In the long history of LaLiga, though, no team has ever led by as many as nine points at this stage and not gone on to win the title.

But if Madridistas are after a crumb of comfort, there have been two occasions of a team squandering a lead of six points or more after 26 games, which would be the scenario the sides find themselves in if Madrid win.

One such instance will be all too familiar to those Madrid fans, with their side failing to finish top when eight points clear of eventual champions Valencia in the 2003-04 campaign.

The other occasion was 42 years ago when Real Sociedad, six points behind heading into the final stretch, overtook Atletico Madrid to land the title.

Effectively, then, Madrid must win at the home of their biggest rivals or else they will be tasked with achieving something that has never before happened in the Spanish top flight.

The odds may not be in their favour, but if last season's run to Champions League glory taught us anything, it's that you can never write this Real Madrid side off.

Xabi Alonso and Bayern Munich were once a perfect match, and few would be surprised should they couple up again somewhere down the line.

Yet Alonso could put a dent in Bayern's Bundesliga title prospects on Sunday, when his Bayer Leverkusen side host the 10-in-a-row champions at BayArena.

Six years have passed since Alonso announced he would be retiring as a player at the end of the 2016-17 season, sparking an outpouring of tributes to one of the great midfield artists of his era.

That news, revealed in March 2017, raised the question of 'what next?' for a man who as a player won a World Cup and two European Championships with Spain, Champions League titles with Liverpool and Real Madrid, and would end up with a hat-trick of Bundesliga medals at Bayern.

Suave, sophisticated and wealthy, with a happy family life, would he even need football again?

Only on his terms. What do you give the man who has everything? You give him control.

Stats Perform has looked at the coaching career so far of the 41-year-old Alonso, who might be a Bayern coach of the future but for now is plotting their downfall.

Softly, softly approach pays off

Like his former Liverpool team-mate Steven Gerrard, Alonso began his coaching education out of the spotlight, at the clubs he knew best.

Where Gerrard started off learning the coaching ropes at Liverpool's academy, Alonso accepted a role with Madrid's Under-14 team in 2018, while polishing off his coaching qualifications.

On June 1, 2019, Alonso stepped away from Madrid to become boss of Real Sociedad B, leading the Basques to promotion to Spain's Segunda Division, their first appearance at that level in 59 years.

Alonso spent three years with that second-string unit, and although they were relegated before he left, La Real noted his "brilliant" spell at the helm in a farewell note at the end of last season.

The club said Alonso had succeeded in "enriching, thanks to his knowledge and involvement, the training and progress of the players of our subsidiary", and pointed to his players successfully progressing through to the first team.

The future was uncertain for Alonso at that point, but only in the sense he would soon have his pick of clubs and would need to choose his pathway.

Bundesliga beckons again

Leverkusen were crushed 4-0 at Bayern in late September of last year, and it proved to be Gerardo Seoane's final Bundesliga game in charge of Die Werkself. They began the season by taking five points from eight league games and were in crisis.

Seoane was sacked and Alonso placed at the helm, telling reporters what had attracted him to his first top-flight coaching role.

He reasoned there was "always a risk" in taking on a new challenge. "But you have to always improve and take steps forward," Alonso added. "I firmly believe that it will work out here and I am fully motivated."

He had previously been presented with "the chance to coach good teams" but waited for the right opportunity, he said, and now he "realised that I'm ready".

Explaining what he would look for from his new team, Alonso urged them to buy into his methods.

"As a former midfielder, I like control," he said.

As graceful as he was in central midfield, Alonso was also a serial winner, and tellingly he had played under some of the great coaches: five years with Rafael Benitez at Liverpool, five years split between Manuel Pellegrini, Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti at Madrid, and two years with Pep Guardiola at Bayern before one last campaign under Ancelotti with the Bavarians.

What an education.

Leverkusen sporting director Simon Rolfes described Alonso as a player who was "an absolute world-class professional for many years, an intelligent strategist and extremely successful in three of the most demanding European leagues".

The message was clear: Leverkusen expected Alonso the coach to match up to Alonso the player. They were confident he was a world-class acquisition.

 

So far, so good

Guardiola sang the praises of Alonso in the week of his appointment by Leverkusen, saying he was a man who, in terms of understanding the game, "reads perfectly".

Leverkusen sat 17th in the 18-team Bundesliga, far from where they expected to be. They have finished in the top six in each of the last five seasons, and 12 of the last 13 campaigns, so the club's standards are high and were not being met.

After that risible start (W1 D2 L5) under Seoane, Bundesliga results have significantly picked up, with Alonso's haul of 29 points from 16 games (W9 D2 L5) having only been bettered by three teams (Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig) during the course of his reign, heading into this weekend's round of games.

Control, that watchword, is slowly coming. Their possession has inched up from 51.3 per cent for the initial eight games under Seoane to 53.5 per cent over the games bossed by Alonso. Bayern lead the way in possession with 63 per cent, followed by Dortmund (58 per cent). Leverkusen were ninth on the list under Alonso's predecessor but are fifth during his tenure.

Making changes and imposing new ideas in mid-season is far from easy, but Alonso is giving it a good crack.

Leverkusen ranked a distant fourth in open play sequences of 10-plus passes during the opening eight rounds of Bundesliga games, with 68 such sequences compared to leaders Bayern's 142. Under Alonso, Leverkusen have logged 204 such sequences of 10-plus passes in open play possession, which puts them third on the list for the duration of his time in charge.

Having had less than half as many possessional sequences as Bayern in the opening eight games, Leverkusen are now much more comparable, with Bayern leading the way with 274 and Leipzig second with 252.

Alonso's team have gone from an average of 3.31 passes per sequence to 3.77, a marked shift. Long passing success still leaves a little to be desired, with a gradual improvement from 44 to 46 per cent during Alonso's reign still leaving them behind Dortmund (60 per cent) and Bayern (59 per cent).

If only Alonso could be the one spraying such passes, Leverkusen would soon jump up that list. Like fellow great playmakers of years gone by, such as Andrea Pirlo and Glenn Hoddle, it is likely the case that Alonso has wowed players on the training pitch with his passing range, but he would give all that up now to have Leverkusen competing at the top of the Bundesliga.

 

Bring on Bayern

As it is, Leverkusen are not yet jostling near the summit. That slow start has meant even the major improvement under Alonso has only seen them rise to ninth spot, six points behind sixth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt.

They might still bridge that gap and snatch a European place, but they need to be winning games, so the Bayern game is huge for them, just as it is for Julian Nagelsmann's visitors in their title battle with Dortmund.

Alonso, quoted in the German press after Thursday's Europa League win against Ferencvaros, said there was "no room for emotions" heading into the reunion with his old club.

"I had a great experience at Bayern Munich; I have fond memories of those three years," Alonso said. "Playing against them as a coach for the first time will be nice – and hopefully with a smile for me after the final whistle."

Ireland can make it a glorious farewell to the Six Nations for record-chasing captain Johnny Sexton as they chase a Grand Slam on Saturday, with England their visitors.

It will be Ireland's title and a clean sweep of wins if they get the better of Steve Borthwick's team at the Aviva Stadium, while Sexton's next points will make him the leading scorer in championship history. He stands level for now with former team-mate Ronan O'Gara on 557 points.

Celebrations could already be in full swing in Dublin before kick-off in the unlikely event of Wales upsetting France in Paris earlier in the day.

France are the only team who can deny Ireland Six Nations glory now, trailing by four points going into the final round of matches.

Bonus points could yet be a factor in the final reckoning, but Ireland will be optimistic they can take that out of the equation by getting the better of an England side who were thrashed last week by Les Bleus.

Scotland face Italy in the day's opening game, before attention turns to the race for the trophy.

Here, Stats Perform runs down key aspects to look at in the three games, with the help of some standout Opta data.

FRANCE v WALES

FORM

Fabien Galthie's France team were so impressive at Twickenham last week they brought a tear to the coach's eye. That 53-10 drubbing in London showed France at their best, and they have won each of their last three Six Nations matches against Wales.

The tide has turned in the rivalry, given France had lost seven of the previous eight battles between the sides in the competition. After last year's Grand Slam, France will believe they can ramp up pressure on Ireland by getting the win at the Stade de France, having won nine of their last 10 Six Nations home matches, including each of the last four.

Wales stopped a six-game run of defeats in the Six Nations by beating Italy 29-17 last time out, to the relief of coach Warren Gatland. It was their longest run without a Six Nations victory since a seven-game sequence in 2006 and 2007, when they lost six and drew one.

There are areas where Wales are still doing well. For instance, they have conceded the joint-fewest turnovers of any side in this year's Six Nations (44, level with Ireland), and only Ireland (30) have won more turnovers than Wales (23). However, it would be a surprise if France do not ramp up the pressure on Ireland with a comfortable win and perhaps a bonus point into the bargain.

ONES TO WATCH

France will look to wings Damian Penaud and Ethan Dumortier to trouble Wales. Five players in this year's Six Nations have a 50 per cent or better tackle evasion rate among those who have faced 20 or more attempted tackles, and Penaud (79 per cent) and Dumortier (51 per cent) are among them.

For Wales, Taulupe Faletau will win his 100th cap and become the eighth man to reach that landmark for the team. Veterans George North and Alun Wyn Jones are among those coming into the starting XV, with Gatland giving the old-stagers a chance to potentially sign off their Six Nations careers in style.

IRELAND v ENGLAND

FORM

Ireland have won their last two Six Nations clashes with England, scoring exactly 32 points in each of those games, and the men in green have bagged 13 wins from their last 23 encounters with this weekend's opponents.

After finishing strongly last year, Ireland are on a seven-game winning run in the Six Nations, and an eighth win in a row would be a record for the team.

That would be cause for celebration alongside the Grand Slam, which would be a third for Ireland in the Six Nations era after 2009 and 2018 clean sweeps. They are chasing a fifth Six Nations title in all, and a seventh Triple Crown in this six-team era.

England's defeat to France last time out was their heaviest ever in the championship, so they have recalled Owen Farrell after dropping the captain, as coach Borthwick looks for a major response.

This game could yet be tight. Ireland (37) and England (34) have conceded the fewest penalties in this year's Six Nations, and they have achieved the highest share of territory per game (England – 60 per cent, Ireland – 59 per cent). Something has to give.

ONES TO WATCH

Sexton scored seven points against Scotland last weekend to move level with O'Gara, so his first kick at goal on Saturday will be a big moment. The record has been in his sights since the start of his final Six Nations, and the 37-year-old should clinch it on home soil.

Dan Cole is poised to win his 100th Test cap for England. He starts among the replacements, ready to become just the fourth player to reach a century for the England men’s team, after Jason Leonard, Ben Youngs and captain Farrell.

SCOTLAND v ITALY

FORM

The days of this fixture being a wooden spoon decider are gone for now, with Scotland much improved in recent years. Italy, too, are a stronger side than they have been for a good while, so they will be frustrated to have lost four from four so far.

Scotland have won each of their last seven Six Nations matches against Italy, their longest winning run against any nation in the championship. Their last Six Nations loss to the Azzurri was a 22-19 setback at Murrayfield in 2015, which was Italy's seventh win over the Scots in the championship. Italy have had just six wins against all other teams in the championship combined.

Italy's recent record in the Six Nations is truly dire, losing 40 of their last 41 games, with the exception among those defeats coming on the final weekend of last year's championship, when they won 22-21 in Wales.

ONES TO WATCH

Scotland's Matt Fagerson has made the most tackles of any player in the 2023 championship (70), while team-mates Jonny Gray (37), Jack Dempsey (32) and Luke Crosbie (32) are the only players to have made 30-plus tackles without missing one. Fagerson, Gray and Dempsey feature this weekend. Their prowess could be key as Scotland look to cope without injured backs Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg.

Italy's Juan Ignacio Brex and Paolo Garbisi are two of three players to have provided a championship-high six break assist passes in this year's championship, matching Ireland's Mack Hansen.

Though neither has hope of winning the Scudetto this season, history will be made at San Siro when Inter and Juventus meet in one of the Italian football's most famous fixtures.

Eighteen points behind Napoli, second-placed Inter are looking over their shoulders at those behind them in a tight fight for the Champions League places.

Had they not been deducted 15 points, Juve would be above Inter and firmly in that battle.

As it is, victory here is critical for Juve's slim chances of climbing into the top four — they are 10 points adrift of fourth-placed Milan — with both sides hoping the Rossoneri slip up at Udinese and Lazio and Roma play out a draw.

And, as Stats Perform explains in a look at the standout Opta numbers ahead of the Derby d'Italia, history is on the side of Juve keeping themselves in the hunt.

Juve dominance

Inter and Juve are set to face off for the 180th time in the top flight, making it the fixture with the most matches in Serie A history.

Juve have dominated this great rivalry, winning 86 matches compared to 48 for Inter, with 45 games finishing as a draw.

The hosts have long since struggled in this fixture when it has been played in the second half of the season. They are winless against Juve at home in Serie A in such games since April 2010.

On top of that, since winning the treble 13 years ago, Inter have prevailed in just two their 12 total home league games against the Bianconeri (D5 L5).

Key to improving that record may be Lautaro Martinez, who has scored four home goals in Serie A in 2023, a tally only Adrien Rabiot and Victor Osimhen can match.

However, the World Cup winner has only scored one goal in nine top-flight games against Juventus and has a goal average of one every 586 minutes against the Bianconeri: his worst in Serie A against any opponent versus whom he has found the net.

Bianconeri back at their best

From an Inter perspective, Juve head into this game in worryingly good form.

Indeed, the Bianconeri are playing at a level not far away from that of runaway leaders Napoli.

Only Napoli (23) have scored more goals than Juventus (20) in Serie A in 2023, while Partenopei are the sole team to have claimed more wins (9) than Massimiliano Allegri's side in this calendar year.

Perhaps of even more concern for Inter is the contrast in form between the two sides in the match immediately after a European contest.

Another Champions League hangover?

Inter got the job done in Porto in midweek and, through to a quarter-final with another Portuguese opponent in Benfica, can have hope of a first Champions League final appearance since their triumph in 2010.

But the Nerazzurri have struggled of late in games following Champions League tussles. Inter have lost three of their last six Serie A matches after their Champions League games, including their last two (against Bologna and Juventus in the reverse match).

Juve are competing in the Europa League after failing to make it out of the Champions League group stage, but they have won each of their last such six league games after Continental encounters.

If Juve repeat the feat from the reverse fixture and defeat Inter without conceding, it will mark the first time they have won both games in this fixture to nil since the 1976-77 season.

It's fair to say Serie A sides have enjoyed themselves on the continental stage this season, with six Italian clubs reaching major European quarter-finals for the first time this century.

Three of those teams have been making waves in the Champions League, for which Luciano Spalletti's Napoli have been touted as genuine contenders after outscoring every other team in the competition.

Meanwhile, rivals Milan and Inter went about their last-16 assignments in quietly impressive fashion, seeing off Tottenham and Porto respectively, both winning 1-0 on aggregate.

With three of Italy's finest reaching the last eight, a first all-Italian Champions League meeting since 2005 was always highly probable, and so it proved with Milan and Napoli paired together.

With the winner of that tie set to face either Inter or Benfica in the semi-finals, the prospect of a first Italian Champions League winner since Inter's class of 2009-10 has perhaps never appeared more realistic.

Ahead of a blockbuster tie between last season's Serie A winners and their likely successors, Stats Perform looks back at the Champions League's previous all-Italian tussles.

Shevchenko decisive in tight derby double-header

Given the remarkable European pedigree enjoyed by seven-time European Cup/Champions League winners Milan, the fact that the Rossoneri have featured in all five previous all-Italian games in the competition is perhaps unsurprising. 

The first two of those came at the semi-final stage in the 2002-03 campaign, when Milan and Inter faced off in a tense double-header ultimately decided by a Rossoneri great.

Milan had reached the last four courtesy of Jon Dahl Tomasson's last-gasp strike against Ajax, while the Nerazzurri edged out Valencia on away goals.

Hector Cuper's men had less luck with that rule against their rivals, with Andriy Shevchenko's 'away' goal deciding a tie which ended 1-1 on aggregate – despite, of course, both legs being held at San Siro.

Inter's Obafemi Martins set up a tense finish after coming on as a substitute, but Carlo Ancelotti's team held on to reach a first final since 1995 – where they would face another domestic rival.

Dida wins battle of the goalkeepers at Old Trafford

Italian football's reputation for being risk-averse has not always been warranted, but given the way 2003's Champions League final between Milan and Juventus played out, that tag is perhaps understandable. 

Juve had already edged out both Milan giants to win Serie A by the time they faced the Rossoneri at Old Trafford, for what represented Marcello Lippi's fourth Champions League final with the Bianconeri (winning in 1996, losing in 1997, 1998 and 2003).

Both defences were on top throughout a nail-biting affair, with Shevchenko seeing a goal ruled out for offside and Antonio Conte rattling the crossbar as the game went to a penalty shoot-out.

With both goalkeepers clearly advancing off the goal line for each spot-kick, Gianluigi Buffon saved from Clarence Seedorf and Kakha Kaladze – only for Dida to go one better by denying David Trezeguet, Marcelo Zalayeta and Paolo Montero as Milan won their sixth European crown.

 

Dida in the spotlight again as violent scenes mar San Siro clash

Dida was again in the spotlight when two Italian sides last squared off in the Champions League – this time for all the wrong reasons.

The 2004-05 quarter-finals featured another heavyweight derby clash between Milan and Inter – who, as was the case two years earlier – finished the Serie A season in second and third respectively as Juventus triumphed.

Milan have always been Italy's European kings, however, and goals from Jaap Stam and Shevchenko put them in the ascendency as Ancelotti's men won the 'home' leg 2-0.

When Shevchenko's first-half effort put the Rossoneri ahead in the return game and Inter – now requiring four goals – saw an Esteban Cambiasso strike ruled out for a foul, the Nerazzurri supporters reacted furiously.

Flares rained down from the stands onto the San Siro pitch, with Dida struck on the shoulder and left requiring treatment for a burn.

Referee Markus Merk attempted to restart the game after a lengthy delay, but when Christian Abbiati was targeted with further missiles, the game was abandoned and Milan were awarded a 3-0 win, making it 5-0 on aggregate and leading to condemnation from across the continent. 

From a Milan point of view, the less said about their subsequent trip to Istanbul for the 2005 final against Liverpool, the better.

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