With the last international window of the season over, domestic club campaigns now enter the final straight.
Everything is still to be decided – technically speaking. Title races, European qualification, relegation – all will come to a head over the next two months.
Of course, there are a few outcomes that already look like foregone conclusions, but there's still much to play for in each of the top five leagues.
With club football returning over the next few days, Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team have crunched the numbers using their supercomputer to predict the outcome of each league.
How's the outlook for your team?
Premier League
England is the scene of potentially most compelling title race among the top five leagues this season.
Arsenal may have an eight-point lead at the summit, but Manchester City still have a game in hand. As such, the Gunners' chances of winning a first league title since 2004 are 56.2 per cent, perhaps smaller than many might have expected.
That comes down in part to the statistical value attached to City's historic results, particularly over the past few years during their Premier League domination, whereas Arsenal haven't come close to that level of success over the same period.
Therefore, the title race still looks tight.
A little further back, Manchester United (74.5 per cent) are near-certainties to finish third, while the race for fourth promises to be engrossing – Tottenham (19.3 per cent), Newcastle United (29.1 per cent) and Liverpool (24.5 per cent) look set to tussle it out, with Brighton and Hove Albion (10.7 per cent) considered rank outsiders.
At the bottom, Southampton's 41.6 per cent likelihood of finishing 20th suggests they've a huge battle on their hands, but the supercomputer reckons West Ham and Leicester City have enough to pull themselves clear of the drop zone.
The signs are that two of Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham Forest will join Saints in the Championship.
Bundesliga
Germany's top flight may come to rival the Premier League's title race. Ahead of the weekend's Klassiker between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, BVB are a point clear.
Yet, Dortmund's probability of finishing top is just 22.4 per cent compared to Bayern's 76.4. Again, it largely comes down to their historic results and Die Roten's dominance suggesting they'll eventually get the job done.
But it's fair to say Bayern's decision makers aren't so confident given their brutal choice to sack Julian Nagelsmann on Friday, replacing him with former Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel.
Union Berlin aren't out of it given they are only five points behind Dortmund, though this is obviously uncharted territory for them, hence the 0.9 per cent chance of winning their first top-flight title since 1923.
Third looks the best bet for them (40.3 per cent), while RB Leipzig are the most likely to fill out the top four (37.2 per cent).
It's even tighter in the relegation scrap. Only seven points separate 18th from 13th, so even rock-bottom Stuttgart are given a reasonable chance of finishing 14th (10.6 per cent) or 15th (15.2 per cent).
LaLiga
Following Barcelona's dramatic 2-1 win in El Clasico before the international break, LaLiga looks done and dusted at the top with the Blaugrana 12 points clear.
The supercomputer also reckons Atletico Madrid are nearly guaranteed third (80.3 per cent), leaving what is effectively a two-horse race for fourth.
Real Sociedad have fourth at the moment and are 43.7 per cent likely to finish there, though Real Betis (36.7 per cent) aim to push them all the way.
At the other end, Elche are given no more than a 0.1 per cent chance of getting out of the bottom three after taking just 13 points from 26 games.
Otherwise, relegation is difficult to call. Almeria in 19th are only six points behind Real Mallorca in 11th, meaning there are a host of clubs who could yet get dragged into a fight for their lives.
There are two particularly big names among those potentially in trouble. Valencia are in the bottom three and have a 21.9 per cent chance of being relegated, while Sevilla – who are on their third coach of the season after sacking Jorge Sampaoli – are only two points clear of safety.
The computer says Man Utd's next Europa League opponents only have a 5.8 per cent probability of going down, however.
Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain seemingly have little to worry about in Ligue 1, with the supercomputer calculating their title chances at 98 per cent.
The tiny hint of doubt gives Marseille (1.8 per cent) and Lens (0.2 per cent) a bit of hope – but even then, it's presumably nothing more than a pipe dream.
There is a similar degree of certainty at the bottom, where four teams will be relegated ahead of the league's size being reduced to 18 clubs next term.
Angers, with 10 points from 28 games, cannot get out of the bottom four according to the calculations, and the other three positions are currently taken up by Ajaccio, Troyes and Auxerre.
Brest and Strasbourg aren't out of the woods yet either, though the supercomputer believes those in the relegation zone are the ones most likely to drop into Ligue 2.
Serie A
If there's one league in Europe that's got a foregone conclusion at the top, it's Serie A.
Napoli have more than a 99.9 per cent chance of winning a first Scudetto since 1990, with the unrelenting Partenopei a whopping 19 points clear of second already.
The race for Champions League qualification promises to be a little more tense.
Eleven points is the gap between Lazio in second and Juventus in seventh. While the Bianconeri are very much outsiders, the other five teams have at least a 15 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.
Lazio, Inter and Milan appear to be the most likely to take those spots, though Roma and Atalanta will fancy their chances of putting a cat among the pigeons.
In the relegation fight, there's a rather clearer picture.
Cremonese and Sampdoria look doomed, while Hellas Verona in 18th are five points adrift of safety, giving them just an 18.8 per cent probability of avoiding relegation.
Ramos in 'final phase' of recovery, says PSG boss Luis Enrique
Luis Enrique confirmed that Paris Saint-Germain striker Goncalo Ramos is nearing a return to action after sustaining an ankle injury on the opening day of the season.
Ramos, who scored 14 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions in his debut season for PSG last year, has not featured for the Parisiens since their 4-1 win over Le Havre in August.
But despite his absence, Luis Enrique's side sit top of the Ligue 1 standings ahead of welcoming Toulouse to the Parc des Princes this Friday.
They are also the top scorers in the division, netting 33 goals in 11 matches so far, nine more than Marseille, who are second in the scoring table.
And as the hectic festive schedule kickstarts, Luis Enrique revealed Ramos has already returned to full first-team training.
"It was the 25th and that is in a few days, so it is the final phase of his recovery," Luis Enrique told reporters.
"As for when he is available (to play) we do not know. We will see in training, he is doing really well and is in full training."
Following Friday's fixture against Toulouse, PSG travel to the Allianz Arena to face Bayern Munich in the Champions League, hoping to ignite their European campaign.
The Ligue 1 champions are at risk of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the competition having taken four points from their first four games this season.
They currently sit 25th in the new 36-team league table, and with an important week coming up, Luis Enrique insisted he would think about rotating his squad.
"You mustn't only think about the game against Toulouse but also the workload for players with their national teams," he said.
"So we will make decisions based on what we think. We want to win against Toulouse, which is our main target."
Ousmane Dembele did not feature during the international break after he left the France training camp with a hamstring issue, though he is expected to feature this Friday.
"In theory, it was nothing serious. I don't think it was a big issue and these things happen during the season," Luis Enrique said.
"It is normal with such a busy schedule, he should be available to play."
While Toulouse sit 10th in the league standings, they will provide PSG with a difficult test. They come into the game on the back of three consecutive wins, all without conceding a goal.
PSG have also not won any of their last two meetings against Toulouse (D1 L1), and could go three games without a win against the Violets for the second time in the 21st century after a winless streak between December 2007 to October 2009 (five).
Hurzeler: Brighton need to 'work to get momentum' despite Man City win
Brighton and Hove Albion boss Fabian Hurzeler believes his players need to rebuild their momentum following a two-week break after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City.
The Seagulls came back from a goal down in dramatic fashion to inflict City's fourth successive defeat in all competitions last time out.
Though the international break came at a bad time for his in-form team, Hurzeler refused to criticise the schedule ahead of their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
"You always have to work to get momentum. It's always a new game and no matter if there's a break between games or not, the game starts from zero," he told a pre-match press conference.
"You have to go into the game and do the things you can influence to the maximum.
"You can't say 'we won against Manchester City and now the momentum will keep going', it's about fighting for momentum.
"It's a new game, a different challenge and a really big challenge because Bournemouth are one of the strongest teams at the moment."
Bournemouth have also beaten City recently, with the Cherries also triumphing over Arsenal and Southampton in their last three home matches.
"They can play very intense, they run a lot, they have individual quality, they are in good shape. For me at the moment, they're one of the best teams in the league," Hurzeler said of the Cherries.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola, meanwhile, was keen to stress that his players need to keep their concentration against Brighton. The Cherries were beaten 3-2 away to Brentford last time out, despite having taken the lead twice.
“You never want to lose the last game before the break because at the end you remember the last feeling. We will remember this week, the actions here against Brentford," he said.
"We can prepare very well for the game against Brighton, that is going to be also very demanding.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bournemouth – Evanilson
Evanilson has scored four goals for Bournemouth since joining the club in August. He is tied with Antoine Semenyo as the club's top scorer, although his goals have come in one fewer appearance.
The Brazilian forward has found the net in three successive matches and will become the first Bournemouth player since Callum Wilson in 2019 to score in four straight top-flight games should he do so on Saturday.
Brighton – Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's leading scorer so far this season, with six league goals – a total that includes three opening goals.
He has scored two away goals so far in the current campaign, coming on the opening day at Everton and the only goal of the game at Newcastle United last month.
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Bournemouth come into this in 12th place in the Premier League on 15 points after 11 matches, having lost 3-2 to Brentford in their most recent game.
At home, though, they have taken 10 points from five matches (three wins, one draw, one loss) and come into this with three successive victories at the Vitality Stadium. They have never won four Premier League home games in a row.
Brighton have earned seven points from five away games (two wins, one draw and two losses) and, despite being six places above their hosts in the table, there are just four points between them.
While Bournemouth have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton, Fabian Hurzeler's side come into this in good form having won three of their last five (one draw, one loss) Premier League matches – as many victories as they managed across their previous 16 league games (six draws, seven defeats).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Bournemouth – 41.2%
Draw – 25.1%
Brighton – 33.7%
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
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