El Clasico: Beat Barcelona and anything is possible for Real Madrid

By Sports Desk March 18, 2023

After coming through part one of a huge week unscathed – albeit with Karim Benzema suffering an injury scare – Real Madrid now turn focus to a huge showdown with fierce rivals Barcelona at Camp Nou.

While the odds were massively stacked in Madrid's favour when protecting a 5-2 lead in their Champions League last-16 tie with Liverpool, going through 6-2 aggregate winners, the opposite is true in their LaLiga title battle with Barca.

Madrid have struggled for consistency domestically and are nine points adrift of the leaders with 12 rounds of games to play after this weekend. Put simply, it is win-or-bust for Los Blancos' outside title hopes.

Carlo Ancelotti's side have a great recent record against their Clasico foes in the league but, regardless of Sunday's result, is it already too late in terms of getting their LaLiga campaign back on track?

Stats Perform looks at how the two sides are shaping up heading into their fourth of five meetings this season, and whether Madrid have any realistic chance of catching Barca.
 

Camp Nou the fortress

Madrid have dropped points too frequently this campaign, particularly away from home. Indeed, they have won just three of their past seven league games outside of the Bernabeu, failing to win back-to-back since October.

Barcelona, by comparison, have won four in a row at Camp Nou without conceding and have taken 32 points from a possible 36 at home this campaign.

Only Paris Saint-Germain can boast a better home record across Europe's top five leagues, collecting three points more than Barca, albeit having played one game more.

On the face of it, then, Los Blancos have their work cut out picking up a point this weekend, never mind the three points they desperately need. 

 

But Madrid have won five of their past six league games against Barca, including their past two visits to Camp Nou – only once before, between January 1963 and February 1965, have they won three in a row there in the competition.

This Barcelona side is a lot different to the ones Madrid faced in those past two seasons, though, as was clear to see in their two recent cup encounters.

The Catalans claimed a 3-1 win in the Supercopa de Espana final in January and a 1-0 win in their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg two weeks ago, with the second leg at Camp Nou to come in early April.

Those 1-0 wins are something they have become accustomed to in the league, too, with nine of their 21 victories coming by that scoreline – more than they have ever recorded in a full season.

Xavi's side have found a way to break down and see out wins against any type of opponent, and their four-year wait for a league title is surely therefore coming to an end.
 

Madrid far from majestic

Opta's prediction model certainly suggests as much, giving Barca a 93.2 per cent chance of finishing top and Madrid just a 6.7 per cent likelihood of overhauling their great rivals.

However, given the six-point swing on the line on Sunday, those figures could change fairly drastically should the visitors win again at Camp Nou.

 

That is why this meeting is so important to both Barca and Madrid; effectively the final chance for any sort of jeopardy to be injected into the title tussle between Spain's biggest two clubs.

But not only will Los Blancos have to beat Barca, they will realistically have to string together a long run of wins and require Xavi's men to drop at least six more points. 

On the four occasions Barca have dropped points this season, they have responded with winning streaks of seven, five, seven and two, with this latest run still ongoing. 

Madrid, meanwhile, have not put together a winning run of more than four games in the league since mid-October, losing to the likes of Rayo Vallecano, Real Mallorca and Villarreal since then.
 

So you're telling me there's a chance?

Ancelotti has repeatedly vowed Madrid will fight Barca all the way, while opposite number Xavi has predicted the title race may go the distance.

In the long history of LaLiga, though, no team has ever led by as many as nine points at this stage and not gone on to win the title.

But if Madridistas are after a crumb of comfort, there have been two occasions of a team squandering a lead of six points or more after 26 games, which would be the scenario the sides find themselves in if Madrid win.

One such instance will be all too familiar to those Madrid fans, with their side failing to finish top when eight points clear of eventual champions Valencia in the 2003-04 campaign.

The other occasion was 42 years ago when Real Sociedad, six points behind heading into the final stretch, overtook Atletico Madrid to land the title.

Effectively, then, Madrid must win at the home of their biggest rivals or else they will be tasked with achieving something that has never before happened in the Spanish top flight.

The odds may not be in their favour, but if last season's run to Champions League glory taught us anything, it's that you can never write this Real Madrid side off.

Related items

  • Glenmuir stay perfect in Zone I of daCosta Cup after 2-0 win over neighbours Garvey Maceo Glenmuir stay perfect in Zone I of daCosta Cup after 2-0 win over neighbours Garvey Maceo

    Glenmuir High extended their perfect start to the Inter-Secondary Schools Sports Association (ISSA)/Wata daCosta Cup as they blanked neighbours Garvey Maceo 2-0 in a lopsided Zone I affair in May Pen, Clarendon, on Saturday.

    Ricardo Binns’ third goal of the season in the 29th and Orel Miller’s seventh of the season in the 40th was enough to seal the three points, which kept Glenmuir atop the standings on maximum nine points.

    The defeat, Garvey Maceo’s first of the season, saw them slip to third on six points as Foga Road (seven points) jumped to second after a 6-0 beating of Porus High.

    Glenmuir’s Head coach Andrew Peart welcomed the win.

    “I am pleased with the win and the maturity shown by the players. For most of them its three years so as they get older, you expect more of them and I thought they showed that. One of the key things for us was not to get the game stretched and I thought we did that well,” Peart said in a post-game interview.

    “It is step by step where our title ambitions are concerned; for us, the main thing now is to get out of the group and then we go from there. Yes, we plan long term but we are working short term so its day by day for us right now,” he added.

    It was expected to be a close contest between two of last season’s semi-finalists, but Glenmuir had other ideas and should have won by a wider margin.

    The Champions Cup holders dominated proceedings from the start as they were enterprising in the attacking third and created numerous chances, though they struggled to apply the finishing touch.

    It wasn’t until close to the half-hour mark that they inevitably broke the deadlock from a sustained attacking spell, when Binns headed into an empty net after a decent first touch kept the ball alive ahead of the advancing Garfield Tomlinson in goal for Garvey Maceo.

    The lead was doubled 11 minutes later courtesy of Miller, who sidewined his way through four defenders before driving a firm left-footed effort past the hapless Tomlinson to make it 2-0 at the break.

    Down, but not out, Garvey Maceo showed more purpose on the attacking front on the resumption and created a few half chances, which amounted to nothing.

    From there, the contest offered very little to write home about as Glenmuir showed very little in attack, seemingly content with what they already had, while Garvey Maceo did little to trouble their opponents defensive line.

    Garvey Maceo’s head coach Lester Hibbert believes indiscipline led to their demise.

    “We gave them instructions to stay with their markers because Glenmuir was doing a lot of movements. When we started the game, we kept them behind the ball but we lost the discipline and conceded two goals, so we just have to brush ourselves off and come again for the next game on Wednesday,” Hibbert said.

    Saturday’s results

    Vere Technical 0, Kemps Hill 2

    Glenmuir 2, Garvey Maceo 0

    Foga Road 6, Porus 0

    William Knibb 5, Holland 0

    Maggotty High 1, Newell 0

    Mannings 9, Godfrey Stewart 0

    Alston 1, Troy 0

    Herbert Morrison 3, St James 0

    Anchovy 1, Rusea’s High 0

    B.B Coke 1, Munro College 0

    Lennon 0, Clarendon College 2

    Irwin High 3, Green Pond High 3

    Spot Valley 2, Cedric Titus 0

    Port Antonio 2, Wycliffe Martin High 0

    Grange Hill 1, Black River 2

    Maldon 0, Cornwall College 1

  • 'We played two different games' - Maresca hails Chelsea response in Bournemouth win 'We played two different games' - Maresca hails Chelsea response in Bournemouth win

    Enzo Maresca felt Chelsea reaped rewards for "getting your t-shirt dirty", as they snatched a late victory over Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium.

    The Blues endured a steady start with their hosts generating the greater attacking threat for most of the contest, with Robert Sanchez keeping out Evanilson's first-half penalty.

    Marcus Tavernier and Ryan Christie also struck the woodwork for the hosts, but substitute Christopher Nkunku landed the decisive blow five minutes from time.

    And Maresca was pleased with his side's response to a difficult first-half performance.

    "We played two different games," he told Sky Sports. "The first half, we struggled. We didn't win duels; we didn't win second balls. The second half, we were much better.

    "We knew before the game that Bournemouth are very high-pressing, man-to-man orientated. We faced a team who are very aggressive, it was more off the ball that we struggled. [The] second half completely changed the picture.

    "This is football. Last time against [Crystal] Palace, we completely deserved to win the game. We had chances and we drew. Today, it was there, and, in the end, we won.

    "You cannot come here to this stadium and think about winning the game without getting your t-shirt dirty. You need to win duels, you need to fight. If we are able to do this for 95 minutes, you have more chances to win games."

    Maresca handed a debut to new signing Jadon Sancho, who was introduced as a half-time substitute before providing the assist for Nkunku's winner.

    And the Manchester United loanee lifted the lid on how he is finding life since his switch to Stamford Bridge.

    "It's amazing to make my debut for Chelsea," he told Sky Sports. "Just being back playing, I'm very grateful. The team played very well; we dug in to the end and got the three points.

    "I've been working hard for this moment, and I'm happy I got my chance. Going into this season, I wanted to have a good start, and I'm happy.

    "I have to say thank you to the staff and teammates. The first day I came in, they made me feel welcome and comfortable."

  • Real Sociedad 0-2 Real Madrid: Vinicius, Mbappe penalties close gap on Barca Real Sociedad 0-2 Real Madrid: Vinicius, Mbappe penalties close gap on Barca

    Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe both scored penalties as Real Madrid saw off Real Sociedad 2-0 at the Reale Arena.

    Carlo Ancelotti's side moved to within a point of LaLiga leaders Barcelona, who visit fifth-place Girona on Sunday.

    Already without the likes of Jude Bellingham, David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni, Madrid suffered another injury blow in the 24th minute when Brahim Diaz was forced off with a muscular issue.

    After a goalless first half, the visitors broke through 13 minutes after the restart with Vinicius slotting home from 12 yards after Sergio Gomez handled Arda Guler's shot.

    Vinicus was then felled for Madrid's second penalty, which was awarded following a VAR review, with Mbappe making no mistake in sealing all three points.

    Data Debrief: Madrid extend unbeaten streak

    Extending their unbeaten LaLiga streak to 37 matches, Madrid have now won four successive away league games against Basque opposition for the first time since a run of four such victories between 2011 and 2013.

    By contrast, Sociedad have now suffered four straight home defeats in the Spanish top flight for the first time since 2007.

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.