One of the most oft-repeated phrases is that there is no offseason for NFL teams. 

It bears repeating because the league consistently validates it year after year, with the 'offseason' serving as an ever-increasing hive of activity as teams reconfigure their rosters through free agency and the NFL Draft in the hopes of putting together a winner. 

That activity was supposed to kick into high gear for 2023 NFL free agents on March 13 when the 'negotiating period' opened ahead of the new league year.

But the league is already ahead of schedule in that sense, as Tuesday’s franchise tag deadline was one teeming with headlines. 

Quarterbacks Derek Carr, Geno Smith and Daniel Jones were all signed to lucrative contracts, the latter pair remaining with the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants, respectively.

The Giants also franchise-tagged Saquon Barkley and the Baltimore Ravens did the same with 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson, though their decision to place the non-exclusive tag on the star quarterback has only increased the doubt about his long-term future.

So much has already been resolved, or not quite resolved in the case of Jackson, yet there are still a plethora of star names at positions on both sides of the ball who will be free to talk to teams on Monday.

The news will likely come thick and fast. With that in mind, let’s look at the key storylines to follow in free agency through the prism of Stats Perform's advanced data.

Brissett and Jimmy G's value

The first major domino in the quarterback market fell on Monday when Carr was signed to a four-year, $150million deal by the New Orleans Saints.

That deal was followed in relatively short order by another, with the Seahawks retaining Smith on a three-year contract worth $105 million, and then Jones receiving $160m over four years from the Giants.

Smith, the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year, led all quarterbacks (minimum 200 attempts) in well-thrown rate, delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.0 per cent of his passes.

Yet there is evidence to suggest the Saints could have got much more value for their money by looking elsewhere at the game's most important position.

Carr receiving $37.5m annually from the Saints after the Las Vegas Raiders released him appears a somewhat bemusing move from New Orleans, especially after one of the worst statistical seasons of his career.

His well-thrown rate of 78.5 per cent was below the league average of 80.7 and trailed that of two other prominent free-agent quarterbacks – Jimmy Garoppolo (82.3) and Jacoby Brissett (84.1). Brissett's ratio was the best among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts who also averaged at least 9.0 air yards per attempt.

Garoppolo and Brissett could be described as anything from high-end backup to above-average starter, but Carr's deal and the $40m a year Jones got from the Giants after a season in which he posted a well-thrown rate of 84.9 per cent should give their agents leverage in negotiations with suitors.

The advanced data surrounding accuracy suggests the two former New England Patriots may have been better options for the Saints. Their numbers and level of performance from last season should encourage teams interested in QBs like the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans and New York Jets (Will Aaron Rodgers leave the Green Bay Packers?), though recent movements may mean neither is as affordable as might have previously been anticipated.

Meyers and Slayton set for paydays

The receiver options in free agency are limited, with most of the intrigue at that spot surrounding a man who did not play last season: Odell Beckham Jr.

Beckham missed all of last year as he remained unsigned while recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in Super Bowl LVI. 

Somebody will take a chance on Beckham this offseason given his pedigree, but the more eye-opening paydays may go to two more unheralded names.

Jakobi Meyers and Darius Slayton are each coming off impressive seasons. Meyers ranked 15th in combined open percentage (46.2) across man and zone coverages among wide receivers with at least 100 matchups and got open on 59.0 per cent of his man matchups. Only four wideouts with a minimum of 25 man matchups won a higher percentage.

The Giants were actively shopping Slayton last offseason, but his ability to create separation was a huge factor in their return to the playoffs.

He finished the year with a 69.0 burn percentage, which measures how often a receiver won his matchup with a defender strictly on plays where he was targeted. And his average of 13.5 burn yards per target ranked fifth among wideouts with at least 50 targets.

Given Beckham averaged 10.8 burn yards per target in his last season in the league and will not have played a game in over 18 months by the time the new season rolls around, handing Meyers or Slayton a large deal and backing them to continue their ascension may be a more astute move than betting on OBJ.

Should Schultz reset the market?

Arguably the biggest prize among the pass catchers is tight end Dalton Schultz, who may well reset the market at that position after the Dallas Cowboys elected not to use the franchise tag on him.

Darren Waller of the Raiders is the league's highest-paid tight end, earning an average of $17m per year.

Schultz could surpass that, but there is statistical evidence to suggest teams should be wary of paying him more than the NFL's established elite at the position.

His burn rate of 65.7 per cent was sixth among tight ends with at least 50 targets, trailing Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert and George Kittle. He also was fifth in burn yards per route (2.3) behind Kelce, Andrews, Kittle and Kyle Pitts.

But he only finished with five touchdowns in his 15 games and his burn yards per target average of 9.5 was only just above the average of 9.4.

By paying up for Schultz, a team will be putting their faith in him to eventually rise to the level of Kelce and Kittle. The reality is it will be very tough for him to replicate their all-round impact and cap space may be better spent elsewhere in a year when the draft class at tight end is strong.

Offensive tackle overpays

Speaking of possible overpays, let's talk about the offensive tackle market. Top-tier offensive tackles usually do not make it to the market, but two bonafide starters are set to.

Orlando Brown Jr. could cash in after the Kansas City Chiefs opted not to franchise him in the wake of their Super Bowl victory, while former San Francisco 49ers starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey is also primed for pastures new.

The 49ers do not have the salary cap space to pay McGlinchey the top-of-market money he could receive and that is probably for the best.

His pressure-allowed rate of 8.7 per cent was slightly better than the average of 8.9 for players with a minimum of 100 snaps at right tackle, but he was also credited with giving up nine adjusted sacks (including the playoffs). Only five right tackles gave up more, three of whom played more pass protection snaps than McGlinchey.

McGlinchey provides consistently solid play, but his ceiling is quite low. With Brown, the level of consistency could certainly be called into question.

He allowed a pressure rate of 9.9 per cent (the average for left tackles with a minimum of 100 snaps was 8.9) and was in the bottom half of the league in both pass-block win rate (63.9 per cent) and run-block win rate (63.7 per cent).

Those numbers are an indication of why a Chiefs team who have done an excellent job of quickly developing young players were willing to let Brown test the market a year after trading star receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. And both he and McGlinchey come with 'buyer beware' stickers.

Edge rush bargains available

While the top tackles in the class could be considered fool's gold, there are some potential bargains to be had for those teams looking to add edge rushers in free agency.

Marcus Davenport only managed half a sack in the 2022 season for the Saints, but he was actually one of the better players at his position in terms of generating pressure.

His pressure rate of 23.6 per cent was 10th among edge rushers with at least 100 pass rush snaps.

Sixth on that list was Arden Key, whose decision to sign a one-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars did not pay off as his sack number dropped from 6.5 in 2021 with the 49ers to 4.5 last season. 

Yet Key's 25.5 per cent pressure rate indicates he can be a very dangerous weapon for defensive coordinators to wield. Still only 26, Key has plenty of room to grow and realise the potential that was obvious during his college career at LSU.

Davenport and Key are not likely to command hugely lucrative contracts. The axiom goes that you can never have too many pass rushers, and adding either of this duo would be a wise move by general managers eyeing extra help on the defensive front.

Who can Philly keep?

Having re-signed edge rusher Brandon Graham to a one-year deal, the Eagles still have 18 players set to enter unrestricted free agency, giving Philadelphia a huge challenge as they try to keep the core of a Super Bowl roster intact.

Among that group are two starters on the much-vaunted offensive line, starting running back Miles Sanders and backup Boston Scott, five defensive linemen (including starting defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave), both starting linebackers and starting safeties, and starting cornerback James Bradberry.

To put it mildly, that is quite the list. And with a little under $4m in cap space to play with, the Eagles are going to have to get creative to retain many of those players.

The question is: Which players should they prioritise?

Future Hall-of-Fame center Jason Kelce could yet retire. If he does not, the Eagles have a difficult decision to make. Kelce's aggregate win rate across pass blocking and run blocking of 83.5 per cent was second among all offensive linemen last season. However, he is 35 and the Eagles drafted his successor, Cam Jurgens, last year.

On the other side of the trenches, it could be very tough for them to keep both Cox and Hargrave, and it is easy to make a case for either one.

Cox had the higher aggregate win rate in pass rushing and run defense. His 40.1 per cent win rate was vastly superior to Hargrave's 34.4 per cent, but the scales tip firmly in Hargave's favour when it comes to the pass rush. Hargrave won 43.8 per cent of his rushes compared to 33.0 for Cox. 

In 2023, the edge goes to players who more consistently impact the passing game. That is Hargrave, but the league-wide recognition of his abilities may make him too expensive to keep.

Further back in the secondary, there are two standout names who should be high on Philadelphia's list of in-house targets to re-sign. 

Bradberry is one after he finished 15th among all starting corners with a combined open percentage-allowed across man and zone coverage of 25.3. 

Safety Marcus Epps may have been unable to prevent Travis Kelce from finding the endzone in the Super Bowl, but he was ninth for all defensive backs by the same metric, posting an open percentage-allowed of 20.2. 

Some of the higher-profile names may depart, but keeping Epps around would be a shrewd and important bit of business.

Dean set to cash in

Bradberry will be one of the top cornerbacks in a free-agent class that has plenty of depth, but Jamel Dean is arguably the top prize at that position.

The 26-year-old Dean was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' best corner in 2022, ranking 10th among corners with a combined open percentage-allowed of 24.3.

In addition, he finished 12th among outside corners with a burn-allowed rate of 44.1 per cent.

Simply put, Dean has already established himself as one of the better young corners in the NFL by doing an excellent job of preventing receivers from creating separation against him.

And with the Buccaneers in a dire salary cap position, he will have the opportunity to cash in with a new team.

With a track record of impressive play on his resume as he enters what should be his prime years, Dean could soon be one of the highest-paid defensive players in the NFL.

Cincy's safety dance

The Cincinnati Bengals are set to see safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell hit the open market. They will likely only re-sign one after drafting Dax Hill in the first round last year.

Bates was a second-team All-Pro in 2020 and has served as a key cog on the Cincinnati defense, but Bell's greater versatility could make him the choice. 

Bell played 627 snaps as a deep safety last season as the Bengals suffered an agonising AFC championship game loss, but he also played over 100 snaps at both box safety and nickel corner. Additionally, he spent time at outside corner, both linebacker spots and on the edge.

By contrast, Bates played 78.5 per cent of his snaps as a deep safety. The only other position where he played more than 100 snaps was at box safety.

There was nothing to separate the two in terms of performance in zone coverage, which made up the bulk of their coverage snaps. Both Bates and Bell finished the season with a zone open-allowed percentage of 21.6.

However, Bell's multiplicity may carry more value in a league in which being able to disguise coverages is a significant advantage.

Bates' best fit is with a team that plays a lot of single-high safety coverage. Though the Bengals' most common coverage in 2022 was Cover 3, they did also play a large amount of two-high coverages, often leaning on Tampa 2 and Cover 4.

As such, do not be surprised to see the Bengals hang on to Bell and leave Bates to try to find a place he can continue to thrive in a league pivoting away from schemes that suit him best.

Ireland travel to Scotland with their Grand Slam fate in their own hands in the penultimate round of Six Nations action, while Wales and Italy battle it out in a possible wooden spoon clash in Rome.

Andy Farrell's Ireland have defeated Wales, France and Italy in this year's edition – each secured with a bonus point – and are now two wins away from completing a clean sweep for a third time in the six team format.

Scotland, beaten by reigning champions France last time out, can get their own championship hopes back on track with victory over the leaders at Murrayfield in Sunday's standalone fixture.

That comes a day after Wales lock horns with Italy at Stadio Olimpico seeking their first victory since Warren Gatland returned as head coach. The Azzurri are themselves winless this tournament, but they are above Wales by virtue of collecting a losing bonus point.

England and France face off in this weekend's other fixture locked on 10 points apiece, with the winner still having a shot of finishing top of the pile heading into the final weekend of action.

Stats Perform previews the three games with the help of some standout Opta data.


ITALY V WALES 

FORM

Italy have finished bottom of the standings seven years running, but there is real hope of stopping the rot at Wales' expense.

Kieran Crowley's side won their most recent meeting with Wales, coming out on top 22-21 in Cardiff last year to snap a seven-year winless sequence in the tournament.

However, they have not beaten Wales at home since 2007 and are winless on their own patch in the competition in 24 outings since defeating Ireland in March 2013.

Gatland has again shuffled his pack in the hope of ending Wales' six-match losing run in the Six Nations – their worst run since losing seven on the spin between 2002 and 2003.

 

ONES TO WATCH

Ange Capuozzo was Player of the Match in this fixture last year, but he will miss Italy's remaining two matches through injury.

That opens a space for Harlequins fly-half Tommaso Allan, who ranked second for passes across Italy's first two games prior to being overlooked against Ireland.

Gatland has made six changes from the loss to England, with Rhys Webb coming into the side for his first Six Nations start since 2017.

Experienced figure Webb is back in the number nine jersey with a point to prove and a chance to hold down a place in the side ahead of the Rugby World Cup.


ENGLAND V FRANCE

FORM

England have defeated Wales and Italy, both by margins of 10-plus points, since losing to Scotland in Steve Borthwick's first game in charge.

The Red Rose are seeking a third straight win in the championship for the first time since 2020, while not since 2009-2010 have they won three in a row by double-figure margins.

France tasted defeat in their most recent away outing, going down 32-19 in a pivotal showdown with Ireland, but they have won their seven Six Nations games either side of that.

However, the home team on the day has won each of the past six tournament meetings between these sides, with France's most recent victory at Twickenham coming in 2005.

 

ONES TO WATCH

Borthwick has made a big decision in leaving out captain Owen Farrell – the first time he has been dropped for England since the 2015 World Cup – with Marcus Smith recalled.

Smith starred for Harlequins in their rout of Exeter last weekend after being released by Borthwick and he will be looking to transfer that club form onto the international stage.

Jonathan Danty comes in for his first start of the tournament for France as one of three changes, but it is Thibaud Flament who will have England's attention.

The 25-year-old, who has previously spent time living in England, has made the most tackles of any player in this year's Six Nations with 58 to his name.


SCOTLAND V IRELAND

FORM

Ireland have lived up to their pre-tournament favourites tag with three wins from three in 2023, while going further back they have won 10 of their past 11 Six Nations games.

Farrell's side have also won each of their last five games at Murrayfield, preventing their opponents from scoring more than one try in four of those five victories.

But Scotland have performed well this year, the only blemish coming in defeat to France last time out, and they have won three of their past four home games in the tournament.

Ireland may have had the better of this fixture in recent times, but seven of the last eight matches between the sides in Edinburgh have been decided by single-figure margins.

ONES TO WATCH

Stuart Hogg has been handed another start in a Scotland side showing two changes – Jonny Gray and Jack Dempsey coming in – for what will be his 100th Test appearance.

That makes the full-back, who is also his country's record try-scorer, one of four men to reach triple figures in a Scotland shirt after Ross Ford, Chris Paterson and Sean Lamont.

It could also be a milestone day for Johnny Sexton, who has recovered from a knock to return to an Ireland side that also contains fit-again Garry Ringrose and Tadhg Furlong.

Ireland captain Sexton requires eight points to overtake former team-mate Ronan O'Gara (557) as the top scorer in the history of the Six Nations.

Borussia Dortmund must put their Champions League heartbreak behind them when they attempt to secure a club record ninth consecutive Bundesliga win in the 100th Revierderby against Schalke.

Edin Terzic's side crashed out of Europe's premier club competition in the round-of-16 when they were beaten 2-0 at Chelsea on Tuesday, having won the first leg 1-0.

That ended Dortmund's run of 10 consecutive victories and they felt hard done by, as referee Danny Makkelie allowed Kai Havertz to retake a decisive penalty due to encroachment and he made no mistake after missing his first attempt.

Dortmund must turn their attention back to the battle for the Bundesliga title and resuming their rivalry with relegation-threatened Schalke at the VELTINS-Arena on Saturday, when Marco Reus could make history.

Level on points with Bayern Munich at the top of the table, Dortmund have the opportunity to take their frustration out on the Royal Blues.

Stats Perform picks out the standout Opta data for the big derby.

 

From Champions League misery to cloud nine?

Dortmund have been licking their wounds since the pain of being consigned to a Champions League exit at Stamford Bridge.

They have no time to feel sorry for themselves, with so much at stake as they strive to dethrone Bayern.

Dortmund could win a club record ninth top-flight game in a row this weekend, having matched their best run with a 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig.

They have previously won eight in a row between 2011 and 2012, then again two years ago. 

 

Reus can go out on his way

Dortmund stalwart Reus is one goal away from becoming the outright record scorer for the club after he was on target against Leipzig.

That strike was his 159th for the club in all competitions, drawing him level with Michael Zorc.

Reus has been struggling with a cold, so it remains to be seen if he gets the chance to go out on his own in the home of Dortmund's rivals.

The skipper has had a hand in at least one goal in each of his past three Bundesliga games, scoring twice and setting two up.

 

Derby delight a distant memory for Schalke

Schalke have not only lost their past four encounters with Dortmund, but also failed to score in five matches against their rivals.

The last time they found the back of the Dortmund net was in April 2019, when they celebrated a 4-2 away victory after Reus and Marius Wolf were sent off.

Youssoufa Moukoko scored the only goal of the game when they met in September and Dortmund ran riot when they last travelled to Schalke, Erling Haaland scoring twice in a 4-0 rout just over two years ago – their joint-highest win over the Royal Blues.

Dortmund have only previously won four consecutive games against Schalke when they went on to beat them eight times in a row between 1964 and 1967.

 

Schalke fighting for their lives

The Royal Blues are battling to avoid relegation after securing promotion back to the top flight last season.

They are making a fight of it under Thomas Reis, securing back-to-back wins over fellow strugglers Stuttgart and Bochum to haul themselves off the bottom of the table.

Schalke had reeled off four goalless draws on the spin before defeating Stuttgart and they are unbeaten in the first six games of the second half of Bundesliga season for the first time since 2006.

This will be a battle between the only unbeaten sides in the second half of the season.

Mohamed Salah delivered for Liverpool in the sensational 7-0 win over Manchester United last weekend – and doubtless he had many fantasy bosses celebrating too.

Two goals and two assists in the Anfield rout showed the Egyptian is getting back to somewhere near his very best for Jurgen Klopp.

Salah has Bournemouth in his sights on Saturday, and our four fantasy team selections for the weekend are players heading out on the road.

Kaoru Mitoma has been in eye-catching form for Brighton and Hove Albion, who head to Leeds United on Saturday, while World Cup winner Emiliano Martinez has four clean sheets already in 2023 for Aston Villa, who visit West Ham on Sunday.

Chelsea's Ben Chilwell returns to an old stomping ground on Saturday as the Blues travel to his former club, Leicester City.

Using Opta data, Stats Perform has looked at why these four could help you bring in useful points this weekend.

Mohamed Salah (Bournemouth v Liverpool)

It was pretty clear Salah needed a rest amid a hectic schedule, and he got it during the World Cup after Egypt failed to qualify. Since games resumed after Qatar 2022, last season's joint-top scorer has been slowly building up to the sort of display that left United in tatters last Sunday. He has totted up nine goal involvements (5 goals, 4 assists) since the World Cup, with only Erling Haaland and Marcus Rashford (11) having more in that time.

Five of Salah's eight Premier League goals against Bournemouth have come at the Vitality Stadium, netting in every appearance in the Premier League there, so he will be looking for more of the same. If he wasn't in your team last week, can you really resist him this time around?

Emiliano Martinez (West Ham v Aston Villa)

There's no denying Villa went through a rocky spell recently, shipping 11 goals in three games, but two clean sheets have followed as Unai Emery looks for resilience.

Only Liverpool (6) and Tottenham (5) have kept more Premier League clean sheets in 2023 than Villa (4). Since the start of the 2020-21 campaign, Martinez is one of only six goalkeepers to have kept over 30 clean sheets in the top flight. This weekend he will try to complete three in a row for the first time since March 2022. West Ham have failed to score in 11 games this season, in case that heightens the temptation to pick Martinez.

Kaoru Mitoma (Leeds United v Brighton and Hove Albion)

Brighton's 4-0 demolition of West Ham last weekend included a goal from the twinkle-toed Japanese forward Mitoma. He has been involved in 11 goals across all competitions for Brighton this season (8 goals, 3 assists) with only Pascal Gross (12) having more involvements.

Seven of those involvements from Mitoma have come on league duty, with six goals and one assist, and it's especially good going when you consider he only made his first start in the competition at the end of October.

Leeds will need to be careful. Among all Premier League players, no one has had more take-ons in the box than Mitoma (17) in this season's competition, while only team-mate Solly March (6) has had more chance-creating take-ons than his five.

Ben Chilwell (Leicester City v Chelsea)

Chelsea could make it three wins in a row at Leicester. Successive clean sheets against Leeds and Borussia Dortmund count in Chilwell's favour, as does his attacking prowess.

Among defenders with at least 500 minutes played in the Premier League this season, only Liverpool's Konstantinos Tsimikas (133) has a better minutes-per-goal-involvement rate this season than Chilwell (237).

Granted, he has had only three such involvements so far, but having missed a large chunk of the season through injury, Chilwell is out to make up for lost time. His former club will be on guard, aware of his talent.

Two of the NBA's biggest upstart and in-form teams do battle on Thursday when the Sacramento Kings host the New York Knicks with both pursuing high seedings in their respective conferences.

Both sides actually dropped their most recent games, but Mike Brown's Kings have won six of their past seven and nine of their past 12, with Memphis' recent wobbles – in the absence of Ja Morant after his highly publicised nightclub incident – seeing them move up to second seed in the Western Conference with a 38-26 record.

It's been a similar story with Tom Thibodeau's Knicks, who had won nine straight games until falling to a shock 112-105 loss to the 21-46 Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday. Before that defeat, the Knicks had the NBA's longest active winning streak.

Arguably, the Knicks felt the absence of Jalen Brunson, who missed his second straight game due to foot soreness against the Hornets.

Brunson had won February's Eastern Conference Player of the Month, helping ignite a winning run that has seen the Knicks surge up to fifth in the east with a 39-28 record, breathing down the necks of the fourth-placed Cleveland Cavaliers (42-26).

The Knicks guard averaged 27.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists during the eight games he played in his side's hot streak.

But Thibodeau downplayed the seriousness of Brunson's issue, suggesting he will likely be available to take on the Kings as both teams look to bank wins down the final stretch of the regular season ahead of the playoffs, with seedings up for grabs.

And the Knicks will not be fazed by taking on a high-ranked team from the West, having toppled the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets – both sitting inside the east's top five – twice each during their recent run of victories.

The Kings' threat is their offense, leading the NBA in points per game (121.1), including a league-high home return (124.3), led by Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter and De'Aaron Fox. Sacramento (50.0) are behind only the Denver Nuggets (50.9) – currently atop the West – for field-goal percentage.

PIVOTAL PERFORMERS

Sacramento Kings - De'Aaron Fox

Across the past 10 games, Kings point guard Fox is second only to Portland Trail Blazers veteran Damian Lillard (39.9) in the NBA for points per game, averaging a staggering 33.5 on 57.2 per cent field-goal shooting.

Fox scored a season-high 42 points in last month's wild 176-175 double-overtime win over the Los Angeles Clippers, which was the second-highest scoring game in NBA history.

New York Knicks - Julius Randle

Brunson's recent impact has grabbed the headlines, but Julius Randle's output should not be lost in that, averaging 28.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in their past 10 games, including a clutch game-winning three-pointer against the Miami Heat.

Randle has exceeded the form that saw him win the NBA's Most Improved Player in 2021 after dipping in offensive output in 2021-22.

KEY BATTLE - Can the Knicks control the key?

The Knicks will need to find a way to shut down the Kings' prolific offense, at least to some extent, but they will be buoyed by having the NBA's best record for fewest opposition points in the paint this season (45.3).

The paint is Kings power forward Sabonis' domain, sitting seventh in the league for points in the foul lane (8.5 per game), so his battle with Knicks center Mitchell Robinson will be important. On the flip side, the Kings are 28th for opposition points in the paint (54.6).

HEAD-TO-HEAD

These two sides have only met once this season, with the Knicks winning 112-99 in December with Randle and R.J. Barrett top scoring with 27 points each.

Sacramento's offense was kept below 100 points for the first time this season in that contest, which has only occurred twice in 2022-23. The Knicks have won three of their past four meetings.

For Paris Saint-Germain, every new season brings a "this is it" feeling with regards to their Champions League hopes.

It's been the club's obsession ever since the Qatari state poured in their petrodollars back in 2011, and after a few years of building up a head of steam domestically, European success has been the chief aim.

Each pre-season sees the arrivals of new superstars, most years bring a new coach who has the ownership group's vain ambitions thrust upon their shoulders. The faces change, the goal doesn't – and neither, until now, has the ultimate destination.

Here we are in March 2023 and PSG still haven't won Europe's top prize. They find themselves 1-0 down after the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie with Bayern Munich, meaning they need to win at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday.

It feels quite early in the season for such a talented group of players to find themselves in a "do or die" position, but that's the harsh reality.

This kind of situation is arguably the whole point of their vast spending, though: having the world-beaters who can almost single-handedly get you out of such a predicament. After all, a 1-0 deficit is hardly insurmountable.

Obviously, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi will be looked to as the keys to survival and progression. PSG's Qatari overlords might even go as far as saying they were brought to Paris to win the Champions League: that's their job.

Of course, their time together at the club has been blighted by speculation of a fractured relationship, partly due – apparently – to Messi being so close to Neymar, who Mbappe is also said to have become distanced from.

But we're not here to indulge those interested in the kind of juvenile nonsense pedalled by clickbait merchants who're obsessed with the pantomime vilification of anyone/anything.

In fact, there is plenty of evidence that Mbappe and Messi genuinely "get" each other on the pitch. Their 21 goal combinations since the start of last season is nine more than any other pairing across the top five leagues.

PSG's excellent 3-0 win over Marseille in Le Classique at the end of February was a prime example of them clearly having rapport. Both of Mbappe's goals were set up by Messi; Messi's goal was set up by Mbappe.

For the first, Messi spotted the devastating run of Mbappe, who applied a clinical finish. They then switched roles for 2-0, the World Cup winner left with a tap-in from his partner's brilliant low cross.

They finished Marseille off in style. Messi's scooped pass released Mbappe, and he emphatically volleyed home from a tight angle.

Granted, it takes more than one match to show a telepathic on-pitch relationship has formed. But them switching it on as a duo shouldn't be sniffed at, particularly in the Classique.

Some might argue the absence of Neymar helped, and will continue to be a positive for the rest of the season.

Neymar will not play again this term due to an ankle injury, in what has seemingly become par for the course for the Brazilian in Paris. By the end of the 2022-23 campaign, he'll have played just 48 per cent of his possible minutes in Ligue 1 since joining, and the highest proportion of league minutes he'll have racked up in a single season will be 54.4 per cent.

But does it matter?

Some will fairly point out Neymar's 34 goal involvements across all competitions this season is bettered only by Mbappe (37) and Erling Haaland (38), and level with Messi. This is true, but does he really carry the same importance as the other two? And, as a trio, are they really as lethal as you might expect them to be?

Since Messi joined, PSG actually have a better win percentage when one of their star trio isn't starting (69.4 per cent, compared to 64.7 per cent). Admittedly that's not a significant difference, but over the same period their win rate when Neymar isn't in the starting XI is 75.9 per cent and 63 per cent when he is.

By comparison, when one of Mbappe or Messi drop out of the line-up, PSG's win percentage falls from 72.9 to 60.

For all his talents, many don't think Neymar will be missed. Former France international Christophe Dugarry is among them.

"I'm happy for PSG that Neymar is injured. I think this is an incredible opportunity for [Christophe] Galtier. The team is much more balanced with five defenders and Mbappe and Messi up front," Dugarry told RMC Sport. 

"I can't watch [Neymar] anymore, I can't stand him anymore. I can't stand his dribbling and that attitude. I don't want to see him on the field anymore, I'm tired."

Proving Neymar's absence makes PSG better is arguably impossible, but Dugarry's comments do strike a chord when he speaks of balance – even Galtier accepts they will be more balanced without the Brazilian.

Galtier does not think it makes them a better team, but that balance is potentially more important at the moment, especially in Europe.

PSG are the only side left in the Champions League who haven't kept a clean sheet in the competition this season, and in all competitions they have only managed two shutouts since the World Cup.

Of course, the situation is slightly more nuanced than being a case of "getting rid of Neymar equals a good defence", but Julian Nagelsmann pinpointed PSG's strength.

"What we need is to prevent them from using their pace," he said. "In Ligue 1, they often defend deep and play on the counter-attack. If you give their attackers too much space and they can unleash their footballing qualities, it's incredibly difficult to defend."

When it comes to pace and speed on the attack, is Neymar really essential for that?

Maybe he was the missing piece all these years. Perhaps, had Neymar not been injured so often in the second half of the season, they'd have won the Champions League by now.

But given how much of the past six years Neymar's missed (52 per cent if you're counting…), it would almost be fitting if PSG went on to win the Champions League without him.

Champions League football returns this week with delicately poised ties in the quest to reach the quarter-finals.

Eyes will firmly be fixed upon Bayern Munich's hosting of Paris Saint-Germain, where the Bundesliga giants hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg in the French capital and are aiming to inflict further continental disappointment upon their visitors.

Meanwhile, Tottenham welcome Milan to north London on the back of a disappointing defeat to Wolves in the Premier League and a surprise exit from the FA Cup at Sheffield United, now needing to come back from a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Italy to retain any hope of avoiding another season without a trophy.

Using Opta data, we've taken a close look at some of the key facts and stats for both fixtures.

Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain

Holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg, Bayern will take confidence in the fact they have been eliminated just twice in the 22 previous occasions where they have won the first leg in a knockout European tie – against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in 2001-02 and Inter in the round of 16 in 2010-11.

Bayern have won three of their last four home meetings with PSG, though did lose their last such encounter in the 2020-21 quarter-final, with their last three wins against the French side coming by a 1-0 scoreline, Kingsley Coman scoring the winner in two of those.

The hosts will be confident of scoring in Wednesday's clash, with PSG the only side remaining in the Champions League not to have kept a single clean sheet in the competition this season.

PSG's search of a response sees them needing to buck a trend, having progressed just once on the six occasions they have lost the first-leg – against Borussia Dortmund in 2019-20 – and the Ligue 1 side have won just one of their last seven against Bayern, having won four of their first five.

Kylian Mbappe has a strong record at the Allianz Arena, though, scoring three goals in his two previous games there, with no player ever scoring in three consecutive visits to the venue in the competition.

Tottenham v Milan

Tottenham's 1-0 loss at San Siro in the first leg was their first defeat in five meetings against Milan, with their two previous home fixtures against the Italians finishing in a 2-1 victory in April 1972 and a goalless draw in March 2011.

While Spurs have progressed from two of the last three European ties where they trailed from the first leg, they have lost four of their last six home matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Antonio Conte's record of five wins in his last six home matches against Milan is encouraging for the hosts, but Harry Kane will need to return to form after scoring just once in seven European games this season. However, he has scored six goals in his six Champions League appearances at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Milan travel to north London with a woeful record on English soil, only ever winning one of 21 such away games (D7 L13) and losing their last three visits to London by an aggregate scoreline of 9-1.

However, the Serie A side have been eliminated in just three of 21 European Cup/Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg and are enjoying a three-match winning streak in the competition – their best since a run of five in 2005.

Milan will be confident of scoring the first goal, with Spurs having conceded first in five of seven Champions League matches this term.

Chelsea must produce another Champions League fightback to avoid being knocked out by Borussia Dortmund and Benfica will be expected to advance to the quarter-finals on Tuesday.

Dortmund start the second leg at Stamford Bridge riding on the crest of a wave following 10 consecutive victories, sitting level on points with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga after beating RB Leipzig 2-1.

Karim Adeyemi's goal gave Edin Terzic's side a 1-0 win over Chelsea and they have a great record in the competition after winning the first leg of knockout stage ties.

The Blues eased the pressure on head coach Graham Potter by beating Leeds United 1-0 on Saturday and have progressed more often than not after losing a first leg in Europe's premier club competition.

Benfica hold a 2-0 lead over Club Brugge heading into the second leg at Estadio da Luz and Joao Mario will attempt to extend his impressive scoring run in the competition.

Stats Perform pick out the standout Opta data to preview the two matches on Tuesday.

 

Chelsea v Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund may need the slender advantage they gained in the first leg, given they have lost five consecutive away games against English sides in the Champions League since beating Arsenal 2-1 in October 2013.

Chelsea lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie for the eighth time in Dortmund, but on the previous seven occasions that has happened they have gone on to progress four times.

That said, of the previous six ties in which Dortmund have won the first leg they have finished off the job to advance – Paris Saint-Germain being the only team to mount a second-leg fightback and knock them out at this stage in 2020.

The Bundesliga title contenders will be looking to win both legs of a Champions League knockout tie for the first time since the 1996-97 season, when they beat both Auxerre and Manchester United twice en route to lifting the trophy for the only time.

Benfica v Club Brugge

Brugge have it all to do when they face Benfica, who are unbeaten in their 10 previous home games against Belgian sides in the Champions League with eight wins and two draws.

Only one of the 45 teams to have won a first leg away from home in a Champions League knockout tie by at least two goals has failed to make it through, when PSG were dumped out by Manchester United in 2019.

Benfica have won three consecutive games in this competition, their best since reeling off six in a row back in the 1989-90 campaign.

Brugge have not scored in their past four Champions League games, which represents their longest drought in the competition.

They will have to keep a close eye on Joao Mario, who will attempt to become the first player to score in five consecutive games in either the European Cup or Champions League since the great Eusebio netted in seven on the spin between May 1963 and September 1964.

Liverpool shattered decades-old records in their 7-0 rout of Manchester United, delivering one of their all-time great Premier League victories.

Braces for Cody Gakpo, Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah – the latter of whom set a new record of his own – saw the hosts run riot at Anfield.

Roberto Firmino, in the first game since his end-of-season departure from Merseyside was confirmed, added a final touch of gloss to a magnificent performance too.

But the scoreline wasn't the only impressive number set during 90 minutes of blockbuster entertainment for the home fans on Sunday. Stats Perform takes a dive into the Opta data from the game.

Salah writes place in Premier League history

The Egypt international has been an incredible player for Liverpool – this was never in doubt. But Sunday's double elevated his legendary status.

Salah's two goals saw him move clear of Robbie Fowler to become Liverpool's outright top scorer in the Premier League, with 129.

In addition, he became the first Liverpool player to score in six consecutive appearances in all competitions against United, continuing his rich vein of form against the Reds' bitter rivals.

Red Devils suffer joint-worst defeat in history

For Erik ten Hag's men, they crashed back to earth a week on from their EFL Cup final triumph in brutal fashion, writing an unwanted chapter in the record books.

It was the joint-worst competitive defeat they have ever suffered, last losing by seven to Wolves on Boxing Day in 1931. They also lost 7-0 to Blackburn Rovers in April 1926.

What's more, United have now lost more Premier League matches against Liverpool (19) than any other side in the competition's history, and shipped 21 goals in their past five league meetings.

It was also their worst ever loss to the Merseyside club, eclipsing the 7-1 defeat suffered in October 1895.

Gakpo and Nunez start the party

While Salah ultimately reigned supreme with his history-making performance, it was his two forward partners who got the ball rolling either side of half-time for Liverpool.

Netherlands international Gakpo struck just before the interval before adding a second later on, meaning he has now netted in three of his last four Premier League starts.

Uruguay attacker Nunez made it 2-0 29 seconds after the restart and then headed in Liverpool's fifth to take his club tally to 14, including four in his past four appearances – that's as many as he managed in his previous 14 games combined.

Nunez's second ensured he and Gakpo became the first Liverpool pair to score twice in the same top-flight match against United since Arthur Goddard and James Stewart in February 1910. Then Salah joined the party.

To say it's "as you were" in the Premier League's title race after Saturday's action wouldn't be doing Arsenal justice.

A brilliant turnaround against Bournemouth saw them answer Manchester City's earlier statement, a 2-0 win over a Newcastle United side who find themselves in a real rut.

Arsenal's lead at the summit somehow – we'll get there – remains five points, and the nature of their victory will surely prove a massive boost.

Also on Saturday, Graham Potter eased the pressure on him ever so slightly, though the same cannot be said for David Moyes.

Stats Perform has delved into the Opta data from the pick of the day's action.

Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth: Title tilt still on track as Gunners respond to Cherries' incredible start

If Arsenal go on to win the Premier League title, fans will probably look back on this game as absolutely vital.

Bournemouth opened the scoring through Phillip Billing after just 9.11 seconds, making it the second-fasted Premier League goal of all time, and Marcos Senesi made it 2-0 in the second half.

The Gunners appeared to be heading for a shocking home defeat, but their response was exceptional – and dramatic.

Thomas Partey and Ben White scored in an eight-minute spell to restore parity, and for a while that looked to be the best Arsenal could muster.

But with 96 minutes and 57 seconds on the clock, Reiss Nelson's brilliant left-footed strike from just inside the box completed the turnaround with Arsenal's second-latest league winner on record (since 2006-07).

It ensured Arsenal won a league game after finding themselves at least two goals down for the first time since February 2012 – the mentality of champions?

Brighton and Hove Albion 4-0 West Ham: Homesick Hammers crushed with Moyes running out of time

There is little to be optimistic about at the moment for West Ham and David Moyes, with Saturday's one-sided defeat to Brighton seeing them plumb new depths.

Alexis Mac Allister got the scoring started from the spot, making it four out of four from the spot this season for the Argentina international – no one in the Premier League has a better 100 per cent record.

Joel Veltman then chested over the line to make it 2-0, before the tremendous Kaoru Mitoma knocked in from Pascal Gross' cross to tally his 11th goal involvement (eight goals, three assists) of the season, which is bettered only by his German colleague among Brighton players.

Danny Welbeck's seventh goal against West Ham – making them his favourite opposition – wrapped things up.

Defeat stretched West Ham's winless streak on the road in the league to 11, their longest dry spell away from home since December 2014-May 2015 (12 matches).

Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United: Magpies unable to end champions' record run

Newcastle have endured a difficult start to 2023 – after initially looking destined for the top four, their chances of being in the Champions League next season are dwindling.

Having lost to Manchester United in last weekend's EFL Cup final, Eddie Howe had to try and inspire a response in a fixture that has long brought Newcastle misery.

Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva got City's goals, the first coming after a solo run and the second a clever poked finish from the Portugal international.

Those efforts sealed City's 14th successive Premier League home win over Newcastle, a run that no team has ever bettered against a single opponent in the competition.

That is now one win in their past 31 clashes with City for Newcastle, having emerged victorious from seven of their first 15.

Newcastle's failure here saw them lose three in a row for the first time under Howe, their inability to score allowing Ederson to keep his 100th Premier League clean sheet in his 208th appearance – only Petr Cech (180 games) and Pepe Reina (198 games) reached that milestone quicker.

Chelsea 1-0 Leeds United: Blues lacking magic but rare win a boost to Potter

It's going to take more than a slender victory over struggling Leeds for Graham Potter to win over his critics, but every turnaround has to start somewhere.

Once again, goals proved difficult to come by for Chelsea's attackers, with French defender Wesley Fofana heading in the decisive goal – his first in the Premier League.

But at this point Potter will not care where the goals come from as long as Chelsea get wins on the board.

Leeds were unable to provide a response, meaning Chelsea held on for only their second win from 12 games across all competitions in 2023 and their first since beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in January, ending a six-game winless run.

Saturday's visitors have taken only six points from away games this season, however, a joint-Premier League low, so it cannot be considered much of a statement from Chelsea.

After a few dark years – by their standards – Manchester United appear to be re-entering the light, with last weekend's EFL Cup triumph their first trophy win since 2017.

It may not be the most desired silverware in England, but when a club so accustomed to winning begins to see dust gathering in the trophy cabinet, any tangible representation of success isn't to be sniffed at.

But Erik ten Hag said it best on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday's FA Cup defeat of West Ham: "Get back to work."

Given United's significant improvement under the Dutchman, there's every reason to believe the EFL Cup won't be their only trophy of the season – they're arguably still alive in the Premier League title race, a Europa League last-16 tie with Real Betis awaits, and they will be huge favourites against Fulham in the FA Cup quarter-finals.

The Premier League is the one, however, and if they are to pull off a remarkable turnaround to win it for the first time in 10 years, slip-ups from this point are unthinkable.

A trip to Anfield probably isn't what they want then, is it?

The drought

Granted, the 2022-23 edition of Liverpool is the Reds' poorest in several years, with Jurgen Klopp's side in a real fight for Champions League qualification.

But, for United, there will be something of a psychological barrier to break when they go to Merseyside on Sunday.

United haven't beaten the Reds at Anfield in the Premier League in over seven years, with their last victory there being a 1-0 win in January 2016.

They have suffered three defeats and claimed as many draws at Anfield in that time, making it their longest winless run away to Liverpool in the league since a streak of nine between 1970 and 1979.

It's been a generally one-sided rivalry in recent years, with Liverpool avoiding defeat in eight successive league games against United before this season.

Their clash at Old Trafford in August ended that run of course – had it not, nine matches without a win would've been United's worst ever run against a single team in Premier League history.

Nevertheless, United's most recent trip to Anfield will have left wounds that run deep.

The last visit

Having already lost 5-0 at home to Liverpool in the 2021-22 season, there was almost a feeling things couldn't get worse for United at Anfield last April.

In terms of the scoreline, they didn't. Technically a 4-0 defeat is better than a 5-0 loss.

But the stats painted a particularly harrowing picture for United after their second meeting of the season, which in itself was hugely one-sided.

The nine goals conceded over the two games was the most United had ever shipped against one team in a single Premier League campaign.

Furthermore, the 9-0 aggregate loss was the second worst in their entire league history, with only an 11-0 deficit to Sunderland in 1892-93 – yes, the 1890s, not a typo of the 1990s – being a greater margin.

Liverpool cut United open as early as the fifth minute, with Mohamed Salah laying the ball on a plate for Luis Diaz to tap in.

Sadio Mane then found Salah with an exceptional reverse pass for the Egyptian to make it 2-0 in the 22nd minute, before a fine first-time finish from the Senegal star midway through the second half had the Reds home and dry – if they weren't already.

Salah wrapped things up with a deflected chip, becoming the first player in Premier League history to score five goals against United in a single season after his hat-trick at Old Trafford.

Liverpool were then fully immersed in a bid for a quadruple having already won the EFL Cup.

This time around, remarkably, it's United in that position – they'll be hoping to at least match Liverpool by adding one more title before the season's conclusion.

The turning point

Matches against Liverpool have proven particularly poignant during Ten Hag's short association with United.

He was officially announced as the club's new manager two days after that Anfield hammering last April, and four months later he got his first win in charge against the Reds.

That's not to suggest his hiring was intrinsically linked to the loss to Liverpool – after all, reports had suggested for weeks prior that he was the primary choice. But there was a perception at the time that the club brought forward the announcement after that loss to ease fan concern.

Then, things started to go right for him and United with August's galvanising 2-1 win at Old Trafford.

United had, of course, lost their first two games of the season. Their humiliating 4-0 loss to Brentford on matchday two saw them end a day bottom of the Premier League for the first time since August 1992, Ten Hag becoming the only Red Devils manager to lose his two opening games in charge in 101 years.

But with expectations as low as could be, Ten Hag made his mark. Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire were dropped, and United went on to win 2-1.

Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford got the goals before Salah's late consolation, with United showing promising signs with their attacking fluidity.

Since then, only leaders Arsenal (54) have amassed more points than United (49) in the Premier League.

It all started against Liverpool.

The present

For the Reds, the top four remains absolutely attainable – though United presumably feel the same way about winning the title, even if Arsenal are 11 points ahead (having played a game more).

Stats Perform's supercomputer reckons United have only a 2.2 per cent chance of usurping the Gunners and Manchester City, however, which puts such ambition in the 'about as likely as Ralf Rangnick being re-hired' region – Liverpool, the model says, have a 28.4 per cent likelihood of getting fourth.

In that respect, a positive result arguably looks more important for United, if you can really put a number on such things.

But even if a league title proves unattainable, beating Liverpool in their own backyard would see Ten Hag break down another major barrier for Manchester United, bringing them a step closer to the light.

The surging Denver Nuggets (44-19) host the struggling Memphis Grizzlies (38-23) on Friday in a clash between the top two teams in the Western Conference.

Since the turn of the year, only the 22-5 Milwaukee Bucks have boasted a better record than Denver's 21-7, and the Nuggets have surged to a five-game lead atop the West.

Their closest challengers are the Grizzlies, who have been flailing since starting center Steven Adams suffered a knee injury on January 22, going 7-8 in the 15 games since.

Adams is only averaging 8.6 points per game in his 27 minutes of action, while shooting a league-worst 36.4 per cent from the free-throw line, but his impact on the Grizzlies' success has proven to be immense.

During the first 46 games of the season – prior to Adams' injury – the Grizzlies owned the best defensive rating in the NBA, while also boasting the second-best rebounding rate, and a top-10 offense.

Since then, Memphis have held up surprisingly well defensively and have been fourth in defense over the past 15 games, but their offense has cratered – becoming the 24th-ranked unit – and their ability to rebound has fallen off a cliff.

Adams leads the team at 11.5 rebounds per game, but his value goes far beyond just the rebounds he hauls down himself, as he is almost universally considered the physically strongest player in the league, and he uses that to wreak havoc on the offensive boards.

The Grizzlies have been 27th in rebounding rate since his injury, falling from the second-best offensive rebounding team to 18th in that category, while also dropping from 15th in defensive rebounding to 28th.

While it is easy to point to some recent cold shooting from Memphis as the reason for their recent struggles – 29th in three-point percentage (31.7 per cent) since Adams' injury – it is their failure in the rebounding department that is ruining a lot of their good work.

It is great to have a top-five defense, but when you are only gathering 68.2 per cent of opponents' misses, it means that even your strength is no longer a strength.

It goes to show that while Jaren Jackson Jr is Memphis' best defensive player – and a strong favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year – Adams may be their most important piece on that end. 

That is even more true when the other team rolls out a center like Nikola Jokic.

Jokic, the reigning back-to-back league MVP and favourite to earn the first three-peat since Larry Bird from 1984-86, is essentially unguardable, but it is incredibly helpful to have a physical presence like Adams who is impossible to push around and can at least dictate Jokic's catch positions.

With Adams out, Jackson will likely assume the responsibility, and while that is a mouth-watering matchup between arguably the league's most gifted players on each side of the ball, the Grizzlies ace will need to be on his most disciplined behaviour.

Leading the league with 3.3 blocks per game, Jackson also sits sixth in fouls per game (3.4), and could leave his team without an anchor on the defensive end if the crafty Jokic draws a couple of early calls and puts his opponent in foul trouble.

But Jokic, while almost flawless on the offensive end, still has his own exploitable warts defensively.

The Serbian has shed the reputation of being a poor defender – leading all centers with 1.3 steals per game – but remains a liability when it comes to protecting the rim, with Denver ranking 25th when it comes to preventing points in the paint.

That is where the Grizzlies will see their greatest advantage as the league leaders for points in the paint, with Ja Morant's 14.8 points per game in that area trailing only Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15.5) for the most among all guards.

Denver's plan of attack will likely be the complete opposite, as Memphis are the fourth-best team at preventing points in the paint but allow the fourth-most made three-pointers per game, while the Nuggets lead the league in three-point percentage (39.2 percent).

PIVOTAL PERFORMERS

Memphis Grizzlies – Ja Morant

Sometimes it is complicated to see whose impact will have the greatest effect on their team's success, and sometimes it is painfully obvious.

Morant is the Grizzlies' franchise player, leading scorer (27.1 points per game), leader in assists (8.2) and the heartbeat of their fast-paced, rim-attacking offense.

It will be his responsibility to exploit Jokic's defensive deficiency and generate high-quality looks inside for himself and team-mates, as Memphis are likely doomed if they have to rely on outside shooting (24th in three-point percentage).

Denver Nuggets – Jamal Murray

The Nuggets know what they are going to get from the metronomically consistent Jokic on a nightly basis, but the contributions from second star Jamal Murray are often what make or break their results.

In the 35 wins he has played in this season, Murray is averaging 21.7 points and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 48.3 per cent from the field, 41.6 per cent from deep and 85.5 per cent from the free-throw line.

In 14 losses, those figures plummet to 16.3 points and 5.5 assists on dismal shooting splits of 38.2/29.7/76.9 – illustrating that when it is not Murray's night, it is usually not the Nuggets' night either.

KEY BATTLE – Can Denver capitalise on the absence of Adams?

While Jokic is one of the best defensive rebounders in the league, having the third-best rate among players averaging at least 20 minutes, he is not even close to the same kind of threat on the offensive boards, where Adams' absence will be felt.

If Memphis can figure out how to limit Denver to one shot per possession and secure the defensive glass, it will not just limit second opportunities, but it will ignite the Grizzlies' fast-break offense and allow Morant to operate in the open floor with a runway.

Another key factor is that while Denver have been shooting the lights out, and Memphis have been struggling from distance, three-point percentage is often a stat that regresses to the mean over time, meaning at some point their fortunes will likely reverse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

These sides have split their two meetings this season, with Denver securing a 14-point home win in December, before Memphis evened the ledger with an 18-point home win of their own in January.

It fits with their evenly matched recent history, with a 2-2 record from their past four meetings, and a 5-5 record dating back to January 2020.

Gabriel Martinelli can maintain his excellent form at Bournemouth's expense on Saturday after capitalising on Everton's defensive frailties.

Martinelli scored twice as the Gunners thrashed the sorry Toffees on Wednesday to go five points clear at the top of the Premier League – and hopefully earned you a healthy haul of fantasy points.

If the Brazil winger is not in your team, then it'll perhaps be better late than never, with struggling Bournemouth travelling to Emirates Stadium on the back of a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Manchester City.

Danny Ings can make his mark in West Ham's trip to Brighton and Hove Albion, while Harry Kane and Antonee Robinson can also rack up the points.

Using Opta data, Stats Perform highlights why that quartet deserve to get the nod.

 

Antonee Robinson (Brentford v Fulham)

Fulham have exceeded expectations so far this season and left-back Robinson has played a big part.

No defender has had more top-flight clean sheets (5) since the World Cup than the United States international, who was also in the Fulham side that shut out Leeds in a 2-0 FA Cup victory on Tuesday.

Robinson provided an assist in the draw at Wolves last week, and only four defenders have created more chances from open play than his eight in the Premier League since the World Cup ended.

 

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal v Bournemouth)

A brace for Martinelli on Wednesday took his Premier League goal tally for the season to 11 – as many as he had scored in his previous three campaigns combined.

Unfortunate with injuries early in his career, Martinelli is putting those woes behind him and has found the back of the net in three consecutive games.

He has scored six top-flight goals since the World Cup and should cause the Cherries all sorts of problems.

Danny Ings (Brighton and Hove Albion v West Ham)

Ings opened his Hammers account in a 4-0 rout of Nottingham Forest last Saturday, scoring a double.

The striker can build on that when David Moyes' men head to the south coast to face Brighton, who Ings has also scored twice against this season during his time at Aston Villa.

Ings clearly enjoys facing the Seagulls, as he has netted five times against them and he can get on a roll to help the Hammers climb the table.

Harry Kane (Wolves v Tottenham)

It may be that Kane is a mainstay in your side, but if not then you can reap the rewards of investing in the Tottenham striker this weekend.

Kane came on as a second-half substitute in Spurs' shock 1-0 FA Cup loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday and the London club should be fired up after seeing another opportunity to end their trophy drought pass them by.

England captain Kane scored his 18th Premier League goal of the season in a derby win over Chelsea last Sunday and you should back him to put on a show at Molineux.

A new Formula One season is upon us and the 2023 campaign will be the longest in the history of the elite motorsport class.

The number of races is rising to 23, with Las Vegas joining the show, though drama will not be limited to the track.

Two seasons ago, the controversial conclusion to the campaign in Abu Dhabi was a dominant story, while last year saw Red Bull's budget cap breach and an Oscar Piastri fight between Alpine and McLaren, as well as frustrations with governing body the FIA, notably over the drivers' freedom of expression.

Get set for sporting theatre to unfold over the course of the season ahead, though the biggest talking point centres around whether anyone can dethrone Red Bull.

Red Bull gives you wins

Max Verstappen finished at the front in 15 of 22 races last season, setting a record for the most triumphs in a single campaign, and he has won over half of the events in the past two years (25 wins from 44 races).

While pre-season testing never offers a full indication of what lies ahead, Red Bull's strength was still evident and the consensus is that the defending champions will begin the campaign with an advantage over their rivals.

 

If that gap cannot be reduced, the biggest threat to a third consecutive crown for Verstappen may come from team-mate Carlos Perez. Should that happen, tempers may flare as they did in Sao Paulo in November when Verstappen refused a team order to allow the Mexican through.

One aspect that may provide hope to Red Bull's rivals is the punishment issued for the budget cap breach, which included a 10 per cent reduction in aerodynamic testing allowance for 12 months. While it came too late to have a major implication on the overall develop of this year's car, it could restrict the team's ability to fix any issues that arise.

Ferrari's fight to the front

A season that offered so much promise for Ferrari last term ultimately fell away through mistakes in race strategy and engine failures, the latter of which resulted in the team having to run in a low-power mode to avoid further woes.

Charles Leclerc certainly has the ability to go head to head with perennial rival Verstappen, who he has raced since his junior days, while Carlos Sainz got his long-awaited maiden F1 win at Silverstone last year.

The appointment of Fred Vasseur as team principal, replacing Mattia Binotto, hands the Scuderia an experienced head on the pit wall and may result in fewer questionable calls in race strategy.

Ferrari are confident they can mount a challenge this season and, even though Leclerc has conceded Red Bull may start with an advantage, he believes the Prancing Horse can respond.

"The target is still [to win the title]. Even if we are starting a bit of the back foot compared to them in terms of performance, I'm sure we can come back," Leclerc told Sky Sports.

Mercedes on a mission

Any hopes of a Mercedes revival in 2023 appear to have stalled already, with testing performances suggesting the team may have to look over their shoulders at those chasing from behind rather than competing at the top.

Mercedes' design continues to divide opinion, with a zero-pod approach being vastly different to their rivals and leading to questions about whether they have stuck to their guns out of pride rather than sporting merit.

With Lewis Hamilton behind the wheel, there is always a chance and the Briton will be determined to come back and add to his record 103 race wins having failed to secure a victory last season – the first campaign in his career when he has not registered a win.

The seven-time world champion was outperformed by team-mate George Russell last season, however. Russell secured a maiden race win in the penultimate race and offered consistency throughout the campaign.

Best of the rest

The biggest surprise of the testing weekend in Bahrain was the pace shown by Aston Martin who, with the addition of Fernando Alonso, have a driver who could mount a serious threat to the bigger guns on the grid.

Though a third world title for the Spaniard may be a stretch, regular podiums and dethroning one of the big three in the constructors' championship is certainly an achievable goal.

At Alpine, great care will be taken to ensure French compatriots Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon do not find themselves butting heads, with a frosty relationship over the years, while McLaren have already admitted they missed their development targets and start on the back foot as a result.

Andreas Seidl, now at the helm of Alfa Romeo-Sauber, enters with high expectations ahead of the team's transition into Audi in 2026, while AlphaTauri's long-term future continues to be questioned despite assurances Red Bull will not sell their second-string team.

Expect the season to also see further rumblings regarding new additions to the grid, with Porsche and Andretti among those pushing to join.

As ever, there is plenty to watch out for in F1 and from the first corner to the last there are likely to be surprises along the way.

Lionel Messi has been named the Best FIFA Men's Player.

The Paris Saint-Germain superstar and Barcelona great won the award for the second time, beating club-mate Kylian Mbappe and last year's Ballon d'Or winner Karim Benzema to the prize.

With the award spanning the time between August 8, 2021 and December 18 last year – from the start of last season to the end of the World Cup – Messi's success in Qatar ultimately gave him the edge.

Using Opta data, Stats Perform looks at Messi's crowning year.

 

Starting slow in Paris

It has not all been rosy for Messi over the course of the last 18 months. 

Barca's inability to renew his contract led to Messi swapping Camp Nou for the Parc des Princes and forming a mouth-watering front trio with Mbappe and Neymar.

Yet it took some time for him to click into gear in France.

Messi finished the 2021-22 Ligue 1 season with six goals, his lowest tally in a league campaign since his breakthrough at Barcelona in the 2005-06 season.

He underperformed his expected goals total of 10.1 by just over four, suggesting he was not finishing chances he would have been expected to, while he only netted once in his first 12 Ligue 1 matches. He was also slightly unfortunate, hitting the woodwork on 11 occasions.

Yet Messi did create – he tallied 14 assists in Ligue 1 alone, creating 63 chances. Having Mbappe and Neymar alongside him no doubt helped (his xA was 9.0), but he ultimately finished with 20 goal contributions in France's top tier.

 

Messi had more luck in the Champions League, scoring five goals in seven appearances, slightly outperforming his non-penalty xG (three goals from 2.4 npxG).

Back at his best

Any teething issues Messi experienced last season have been swiftly forgotten this term.

Indeed, in the run-up to the World Cup, Messi had already contributed to 25 goals (11 goals, 14 assists) in 18 appearances for PSG across all competitions.

None of Messi's goals came from the penalty spot, topping his npxG of 9.5.

Heading to Qatar, Messi had contributed to more PSG goals than either Mbappe or Neymar (24 each) in fewer matches.

Messi's shot conversion rate (14.9 per cent) was lower than Mbappe's 23.5 and Neymar's 27.1, but he had completed more dribbles (55) and created chances with a greater combined xA (8.6) than either.

It took time, but the signs were scary for Argentina's opponents heading into the World Cup, and it's that tournament that has inevitably given him the edge for these awards.

On top of the world... at last

The one criticism that could have been levelled at Messi previously was that the seven-time Ballon d'Or winner had not managed to transfer his form to the international stage.

After winning the Copa America in 2021, Messi ended that argument in emphatic fashion in Qatar, channelling his inner Diego Maradona as, like the great man in 1986, he dragged Argentina to glory at a World Cup.

The 35-year-old scored seven goals, including two in the final, and provided three assists to claim the Golden Ball award, although of course it is the main prize that will matter the most to him.

 

Messi became the first player to net in the group stage, the last 16, the quarter-finals, the semi-finals and the final – albeit Jairzinho scored in every game Brazil played in 1970 before the introduction of the round of 16.

Messi and Jairzinho are two of five players in World Cup history to have found the net in six separate games at one finals, with the other three (Just Fontaine, Salvatore Schillaci and Davor Suker) boosting their numbers in the third-place play-off.

He also matched Schillaci in scoring the first goal in five different matches.

Messi topped the charts for shots attempted (32), chances created from open play (17) and fouls won (22).

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