Bayern look to continue dominance against PSG, Milan push to end English woes – Champions League in Opta numbers

By Sports Desk March 08, 2023

Champions League football returns this week with delicately poised ties in the quest to reach the quarter-finals.

Eyes will firmly be fixed upon Bayern Munich's hosting of Paris Saint-Germain, where the Bundesliga giants hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg in the French capital and are aiming to inflict further continental disappointment upon their visitors.

Meanwhile, Tottenham welcome Milan to north London on the back of a disappointing defeat to Wolves in the Premier League and a surprise exit from the FA Cup at Sheffield United, now needing to come back from a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Italy to retain any hope of avoiding another season without a trophy.

Using Opta data, we've taken a close look at some of the key facts and stats for both fixtures.

Bayern Munich v Paris Saint-Germain

Holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg, Bayern will take confidence in the fact they have been eliminated just twice in the 22 previous occasions where they have won the first leg in a knockout European tie – against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in 2001-02 and Inter in the round of 16 in 2010-11.

Bayern have won three of their last four home meetings with PSG, though did lose their last such encounter in the 2020-21 quarter-final, with their last three wins against the French side coming by a 1-0 scoreline, Kingsley Coman scoring the winner in two of those.

The hosts will be confident of scoring in Wednesday's clash, with PSG the only side remaining in the Champions League not to have kept a single clean sheet in the competition this season.

PSG's search of a response sees them needing to buck a trend, having progressed just once on the six occasions they have lost the first-leg – against Borussia Dortmund in 2019-20 – and the Ligue 1 side have won just one of their last seven against Bayern, having won four of their first five.

Kylian Mbappe has a strong record at the Allianz Arena, though, scoring three goals in his two previous games there, with no player ever scoring in three consecutive visits to the venue in the competition.

Tottenham v Milan

Tottenham's 1-0 loss at San Siro in the first leg was their first defeat in five meetings against Milan, with their two previous home fixtures against the Italians finishing in a 2-1 victory in April 1972 and a goalless draw in March 2011.

While Spurs have progressed from two of the last three European ties where they trailed from the first leg, they have lost four of their last six home matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Antonio Conte's record of five wins in his last six home matches against Milan is encouraging for the hosts, but Harry Kane will need to return to form after scoring just once in seven European games this season. However, he has scored six goals in his six Champions League appearances at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Milan travel to north London with a woeful record on English soil, only ever winning one of 21 such away games (D7 L13) and losing their last three visits to London by an aggregate scoreline of 9-1.

However, the Serie A side have been eliminated in just three of 21 European Cup/Champions League knockout ties when winning the first leg and are enjoying a three-match winning streak in the competition – their best since a run of five in 2005.

Milan will be confident of scoring the first goal, with Spurs having conceded first in five of seven Champions League matches this term.

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    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

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    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
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    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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    They cap off their 11-day four-match run with the DFB-Pokal last-16 clash at home to holders Bayer Leverkusen on 3 December.

    "We are missing Palhinha and Mathys Tel also got a knock while with the national team," Kompany told a press conference on Thursday. "The one fear we have as coach is for players to leave and come back injured.

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    "We're satisfied with the season we've played so far in all competitions despite the two defeats in the Champions League," said Bayern sports director Max Eberl, referring to their 1-0 defeat away to Aston Villa and 4-1 loss at Barcelona.

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    "We have PSG which is a special game, Leverkusen in the Cup and Dortmund in the league. We want to start and win every single game. That is our starting point."

    Leverkusen won their first domestic double last term but Bayern, desperate to restore their national dominance, are undefeated in the Bundesliga and have quickly carved out a five-point lead at the top over second-placed RB Leipzig.

    The Bavarians have 26 points, with Leverkusen, who host Heidenheim on Saturday, nine behind in fourth. Dortmund welcome Freiburg, having dropped to seventh spot on 16 points, while Leipzig travel to Hoffenheim.

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    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

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    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

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    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

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    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

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    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

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