EPL

Premier League data dive: Arsenal comeback an 11-year first after Man City continue Newcastle subjugation

By Sports Desk March 04, 2023

To say it's "as you were" in the Premier League's title race after Saturday's action wouldn't be doing Arsenal justice.

A brilliant turnaround against Bournemouth saw them answer Manchester City's earlier statement, a 2-0 win over a Newcastle United side who find themselves in a real rut.

Arsenal's lead at the summit somehow – we'll get there – remains five points, and the nature of their victory will surely prove a massive boost.

Also on Saturday, Graham Potter eased the pressure on him ever so slightly, though the same cannot be said for David Moyes.

Stats Perform has delved into the Opta data from the pick of the day's action.

Arsenal 3-2 Bournemouth: Title tilt still on track as Gunners respond to Cherries' incredible start

If Arsenal go on to win the Premier League title, fans will probably look back on this game as absolutely vital.

Bournemouth opened the scoring through Phillip Billing after just 9.11 seconds, making it the second-fasted Premier League goal of all time, and Marcos Senesi made it 2-0 in the second half.

The Gunners appeared to be heading for a shocking home defeat, but their response was exceptional – and dramatic.

Thomas Partey and Ben White scored in an eight-minute spell to restore parity, and for a while that looked to be the best Arsenal could muster.

But with 96 minutes and 57 seconds on the clock, Reiss Nelson's brilliant left-footed strike from just inside the box completed the turnaround with Arsenal's second-latest league winner on record (since 2006-07).

It ensured Arsenal won a league game after finding themselves at least two goals down for the first time since February 2012 – the mentality of champions?

Brighton and Hove Albion 4-0 West Ham: Homesick Hammers crushed with Moyes running out of time

There is little to be optimistic about at the moment for West Ham and David Moyes, with Saturday's one-sided defeat to Brighton seeing them plumb new depths.

Alexis Mac Allister got the scoring started from the spot, making it four out of four from the spot this season for the Argentina international – no one in the Premier League has a better 100 per cent record.

Joel Veltman then chested over the line to make it 2-0, before the tremendous Kaoru Mitoma knocked in from Pascal Gross' cross to tally his 11th goal involvement (eight goals, three assists) of the season, which is bettered only by his German colleague among Brighton players.

Danny Welbeck's seventh goal against West Ham – making them his favourite opposition – wrapped things up.

Defeat stretched West Ham's winless streak on the road in the league to 11, their longest dry spell away from home since December 2014-May 2015 (12 matches).

Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United: Magpies unable to end champions' record run

Newcastle have endured a difficult start to 2023 – after initially looking destined for the top four, their chances of being in the Champions League next season are dwindling.

Having lost to Manchester United in last weekend's EFL Cup final, Eddie Howe had to try and inspire a response in a fixture that has long brought Newcastle misery.

Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva got City's goals, the first coming after a solo run and the second a clever poked finish from the Portugal international.

Those efforts sealed City's 14th successive Premier League home win over Newcastle, a run that no team has ever bettered against a single opponent in the competition.

That is now one win in their past 31 clashes with City for Newcastle, having emerged victorious from seven of their first 15.

Newcastle's failure here saw them lose three in a row for the first time under Howe, their inability to score allowing Ederson to keep his 100th Premier League clean sheet in his 208th appearance – only Petr Cech (180 games) and Pepe Reina (198 games) reached that milestone quicker.

Chelsea 1-0 Leeds United: Blues lacking magic but rare win a boost to Potter

It's going to take more than a slender victory over struggling Leeds for Graham Potter to win over his critics, but every turnaround has to start somewhere.

Once again, goals proved difficult to come by for Chelsea's attackers, with French defender Wesley Fofana heading in the decisive goal – his first in the Premier League.

But at this point Potter will not care where the goals come from as long as Chelsea get wins on the board.

Leeds were unable to provide a response, meaning Chelsea held on for only their second win from 12 games across all competitions in 2023 and their first since beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in January, ending a six-game winless run.

Saturday's visitors have taken only six points from away games this season, however, a joint-Premier League low, so it cannot be considered much of a statement from Chelsea.

Related items

  • 'Please, doubt us' – Dias dares Man City's critics 'Please, doubt us' – Dias dares Man City's critics

    Ruben Dias has dared Manchester City's critics to "doubt us" after the Premier League champions' four-game losing streak.

    Pep Guardiola lost four straight matches in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career as City capitulated in a 2-1 loss to Brighton on Saturday.

    That loss came on the back of a 4-1 defeat to Sporting CP – coached by new Manchester United boss Ruben Amorim – in the Champions League, as well as a reverse to Bournemouth in the Premier League and an EFL Cup exit at the hands of Tottenham.

    City are five points behind league leaders Liverpool, but Dias shrugged off the doubters.

    "I would say, please doubt us, doubt us, feel welcome to do so," the centre-back told reporters.

    "When we did the treble, we even called it the dark January. We had a tough period. But it is what it is.

    "What matters is how you bounce back from these moments. That's why our team has won so much because in moments of difficulty, the characters come up and we stay together.

     

    "We don't find people to kill, we find people to bring into the cause and fight together.

    "That's what we need to do once again. Until it's done, it's not done."

    City's losing run combined with Liverpool's excellent form has seen a swing in the Opta supercomputer's predictions.

    The model now has Liverpool as the favourites, with a 60.3% chance of winning the title.

  • Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

    The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

    Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

    Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

    When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

    Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

    Lucky winners: Manchester United

    Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

    However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

    United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

    Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

    Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

    Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

    Unlucky losers: Manchester City

    Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

    Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

     

    Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

    Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

    City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

    Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

    If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

    Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

     

    Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

    Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

  • Forest taught 'a lesson' as winning run ended by Newcastle according to Nuno Forest taught 'a lesson' as winning run ended by Newcastle according to Nuno

    Nuno Espirito Santo acknowledged Nottingham Forest were taught "a lesson" by Newcastle United, even if he did not criticise his side following a 3-1 defeat at the City Ground.

    Forest had won their previous three matches to climb to third in the Premier League, and Murillo's opener had them on course for another victory.

    But that goal came against the run of play, and Newcastle continued to dominate, eventually equalising through Alexander Isak.

    Forest, who have been so solid at the back this season, went chasing victory and were instead caught out as both Joelinton and Harvey Barnes scored on the break.

    Those counter-attacks have been a large part of Forest's own attacking identity previously, and Nuno was full of praise for how ruthlessly Newcastle executed that tactic.

    "I cannot say that was a bad performance, that is totally out of the question," the Forest boss told BBC Sport.

    "We played against a very good team that was able to control us and then hurt us in the way we've been doing. It is a lesson for us to learn.

    "I just have to recognise that today we played a good team, who were better than us in many, many moments.

    "There's nothing to say about the [Forest] players. The character and belief was there."

    Newcastle were a little unfortunate to trail at half-time, having had seven shots to Forest's three and 60% of the possession.

    Yet Eddie Howe, the Newcastle coach, still saw plenty of room for improvement, which his side delivered on after the restart.

    "It was difficult, but we knew it would be," he said. "They are a difficult team to play against because they don't concede many chances and you're left fearing the worst when you go behind.

    "We had work to do at half-time, but credit to the players because the second half was up there with our best performances this season.

    "Everything we didn't do in the first half, we did at the start of the second half. We were intense and direct with our attacking. We asked more questions and could have scored.

    "I'm really pleased with the second half."

    Newcastle have won three in a row in all competitions for the first time in over a year, helped by a return to form for their attacking stars.

    Isak had netted only once this season before scoring in the past four successive matches, while Barnes again showed his quality from the bench. Six of his nine Newcastle goals have come as a substitute.

    Howe added: "We need our attacking players to contribute goals, and Alex has done that in the past few weeks with massive moments, then Joelinton and Harvey Barnes pop up with moments, too.

    "We know we have players who can make that difference, and I'm really pleased with that side of our game.

    "Harvey Barnes did what he does. He's an outstanding player. Trying to find room for him in the team is something that I am conscious of.

    "I'm really pleased he got that goal – I thought it was a fantastic finish."

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