Hours before beginning defence of their Super Bowl title, the Los Angeles Rams announced they have agreed to extensions with head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead through the 2026 season.

McVay has led the Rams to four playoff appearances and two trips to the Super Bowl in five seasons since the team made the then 30-year-old the youngest head coach in modern NFL history in 2017.

He became the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl at age 36 when Los Angeles defeated the Cincinnati Bengals in February.

The 2017 NFL Coach of the Year's 55 regular-season victories are tied with Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin for the third-most of any coach through his first five seasons in NFL history.

McVay also sports a 7-3 postseason record with three NFC West titles over his tenure, along with an NFC championship in 2018 that resulted in the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance in 17 years.

Snead, entering his 11th season as the Rams' GM after remaining with the team following its move from St. Louis back to Los Angeles in 2016, has also played a major part in the franchise's recent success by assembling one of the league's most talented rosters through the draft and trades.

The Rams have drafted five Pro Bowl players, most notably three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and 2021 Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp, under Snead's watch.

The 51-year-old has also established a reputation as one of the league's most aggressive and shrewd executives by acquiring several other members of last season's championship core via the trade and free agent markets.

Snead snared three-time All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019 and landed quarterback Matthew Stafford in a blockbuster trade with the Detroit Lions in March 2021.

He later made two significant in-season moves that contributed to last season's title run by trading for star pass rusher Von Miller and signing wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.

"As an organisation we constantly strive to better ourselves every day. This requires selflessness, dedication and great leadership throughout. Sean and Les personify this mindset," Rams owner Stan Kroenke said in a statement.

"They have been crucial to many of our successes that transcend wins and losses. They epitomise the 'We, not me' mantra that permeates the entire organisation.

"We look forward to many more exciting seasons at SoFi Stadium as Sean and Les continue to play meaningful roles within the organisation and throughout the community."

Los Angeles will kick off the 2022 NFL season Thursday night at SoFi Stadium against reigning AFC East champion, the Buffalo Bills.

The NFC houses the reigning Super Bowl champions, but it enters the 2022 season viewed as the weaker of the two conferences.

Given the plethora of talented young quarterbacks residing in the AFC, the road to the Super Bowl appears to be an easier one in an NFC where the level of supply at the game's most important position is not quite as impressive.

But it would be wrong to suggest this is a conference lacking in depth, and there are several teams who could emerge as new and legitimate contenders to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVII in Arizona.

Which teams are most likely to earn that honour? Stats Perform previews the NFC with the help of its AI season simulation and pre-season position rankings.

Favourites

No team in the league is seen as having a better chance to win the Super Bowl than the Rams, with Stats Perform AI giving the defending champions a 15.3 per cent chance of retaining the Lombardi Trophy despite the loss of Von Miller and the absence of Odell Beckham Jr, who remains a free agent following the torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl.

Even without Beckham, the Rams' skill position players are ranked fifth. On top of that, the Rams enter the season first in pass rush, third in pass defense and first in run defense. That's what having Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on the same team will do for you.

Their most obvious competition comes from the team they beat in a Divisional Round thriller last season, though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to have just a 6.6 per cent chance to win the Super Bowl by stark comparison.

Despite the loss of center Ryan Jensen to injury and an offseason of change on the interior of the offensive line, the Buccaneers are still ranked sixth in pass protection. Tampa Bay's ability to justify that lofty position will go a long way to deciding whether Tom Brady - who had more passing plays of 25 yards or more than any other quarterback (42) in 2021 - can lead Tampa to a second title in three seasons.

Brady will have the benefit of a stacked wide receiver group, which is a luxury Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers do not enjoy as the four-time MVP launches another quest for a second Super Bowl ring.

Rodgers will be tasked with elevating a Davante Adams-less supporting cast to contention. However, though the trade of Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders dropped Green Bay's skill position players to 23rd, the Packers are still projected to win 11.5 games, the third-highest total in the NFL and a number tied in part to the continued improvements of a defense ranked third in pass rush and 10th in pass coverage that could give Rodgers the support he needs for a deep postseason run.

In the mix

The Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings combined to win a grand total of zero playoff wins in the 2021 season.

Yet all three are projected to threaten double-digit wins in 2021.

Philadelphia, blown out in the Wild Card Round by the Buccaneers last season, have a win projection of 11.9, the second-highest in the NFL behind the Rams, illustrating the strength of the roster and the level of pressure on quarterback Jalen Hurts as he heads into a critical second season as the starter knowing the Eagles have the draft capital to move on from him should he fail to deliver.

The Eagles' NFC East rivals the Cowboys have a win projection of 11 even after an offseason in which they traded wide receiver Amari Cooper and lost edge rusher Randy Gregory in free agency. Dallas will also start the year without left tackle Tyron Smith after he suffered a knee injury that will keep him out until December.

Though the Cowboys head into the season ranked sixth in pass defense, much of their success in that area was tied to takeaways and an 11-interception season from Trevon Diggs that history says is unlikely to be repeated. This is a roster that lacks depth in several key areas and the onus will be on Dak Prescott to maintain the form that saw him finish 2021 fifth in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) - which measures performance in expected passing situations compared to the league average - for the Cowboys to live up to their projection.

Minnesota are also predicted to produce an 11-win season in their first under the guidance of new head coach Kevin O'Connell, who will have a top-seven quarterback by EVE last season in Kirk Cousins and a skill-position group that goes into the campaign ranked eighth to work with as the Vikings aim to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North.

Will Lance live up to expectations?

The most pertinent question in the NFC surrounds the San Francisco 49ers, who are given just a 10.6 per cent chance of making the playoffs for the third time in four seasons despite possessing one of the better all-round rosters in the league and coming within minutes of beating the Rams in the NFC Championship Game back in January.

Doubt around the Niners' ability to contend again is based on the complete unknown that is Trey Lance, the third overall pick from 2021 with just two NFL starts to his name.

Lance takes over from his now backup Jimmy Garoppolo, who was 10th in QB EVE in 2021, and the move from Garoppolo's down to down efficiency to a quarterback who is, for all intents and purposes, coming off a redshirt year, is a significant factor behind the Niners' projection of 7.1 wins.

Yet Lance is a quarterback with the big-play upside as both a passer and a runner to take an offense that finished 2021 first in EVE to an even higher level, and he will be working with a group of skill-position players ranked as the league's sixth best.

Supported by a defense that, according to the rankings, boasts the second-best pass rush and a top-seven pass coverage unit, Lance is in a tremendous situation to vindicate his lofty draft status.

Should he do so, an ultra-talented team will likely dramatically outperform their projection. If he endures the kind of growing pains associated with rookie quarterbacks, the Niners may be tempted to revert back to Garoppolo. It is that range of outcomes that makes the 49ers the most interesting team in the NFC if not the NFL.

Time to believe in the Saints?

The final few days of build-up to the new season have brought some perhaps unexpected hype about the prospects of the New Orleans Saints.

Is it justified? Well, their projection seems to suggest they have a strong chance of making it to the dance, New Orleans going into the season tied with the Los Angeles Chargers tied for the 10th-best playoff odds in the league at 60 per cent.

It is not overly difficult to make a case for the Saints, who retain one of the premier defenses in the NFL. New Orleans' defense is ranked first against the pass and fifth against the run. The coordinator who has overseen that defense, Dennis Allen, is now the Saints head coach after Sean Payton stepped away.

On offense, Alvin Kamara is a dual threat on the ground and as a receiver from the running back position, while the Saints are hoping Michael Thomas can get back to his All-Pro best at wideout after playing just seven regular-season games in the last two years.

The problem is that much of the external belief in the Saints appears to be built on hope rather than evidence. They are hoping Thomas can return to his old self, that Chris Olave can quickly become a rookie sensation at receiver and that Jameis Winston's encouraging seven-game pre-injury stretch last season was not a mirage.

Simply put, the Saints need a lot to happen for them to truly contend as many seemingly expect them to, but the undoubted quality of their defense does at least give New Orleans a reasonably high floor.

New quarterbacks, new places, same old results

Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz will each ply their trade in new locations following offseason trades.

Mayfield will look to rehabilitate his career with the Carolina Panthers while the Washington Commanders are the latest team to tell themselves they can succeed with Wentz.

Reality, however, begs to differ.

Even in what was a largely turnover-free 2021 season for the Indianapolis Colts, Wentz was still only 23rd among quarterbacks (min. 100 attempts in expected passing situations) in QB EVE.

It is no surprise, then, that the Commanders are projected to win 7.9 games, and spend another year mired in mediocrity, with Wentz unlikely to be helped by a skill-position group lacking proven playmakers outside of Terry McLaurin and ranked 31st in the league.

Mediocrity will also be the order of the season in Carolina, with the Panthers' reward for an offseason in which they traded draft capital for both Matt Corral and Mayfield a win projection of 6.8. Seven wins would represent an improvement for head coach Matt Rhule but is unlikely to be enough progress to prevent the Panthers from cleaning house come the end of the campaign.

Despite having a history of holding football grudges, Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield took the high road when addressing Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns, his former team.

Mayfield left the Browns in the offseason, following their move for DeShaun Watson, to join the Panthers, with the two sides to meet in Week 1.

"It's a great storyline," Mayfield said on Wednesday. "Obviously, there's history leading up to this week. [But] there's other games in the NFL that guys are playing their former team. It's just the excitement of leading up to Week 1 that is building that anticipation up. It's the familiarity."

The Browns drafted Mayfield first overall in 2018 but chose to replace him this offseason by acquiring Watson.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Mayfield acknowledged that a game against so many former teammates can be a bit different, but he denied having any resentment towards the Browns organization.

"Any time you're playing guys you know, it makes it just more interesting, more fun," Mayfield said. "You get to smack talk with your buddies that you've been with for a little bit. You know how to poke and prod and get the best out of them.

"I'm looking forward to the opportunity.

"I'm grateful for the time I had in Cleveland," he said. "I started my career there. The fans there, it's a football town. As I mentioned multiple times it ended abruptly and unexpectedly, but we're here now.

"Everything happens for a reason. I'm rolling with the punches. I'm happy to be a Panther."

Mayfield won the job as the Panthers’ top quarterback over last year’s starter, Sam Darnold.

Mayfield was 30-30 starting under center for the Browns and helped give the franchise its first playoff win since the 1994 season.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is seeking a massive contract extension, but he is just not willing to let negotiations interfere with the 2022 season.

Jackson set Friday as the deadline to work out a new deal before shutting down negotiations to focus on the regular season, ESPN reported.

"As of right now, we're still talking," Jackson said after practice Wednesday. "The week isn't over yet."

The Ravens open the season by visiting the New York Jets on Sunday.

If a new contract isn’t signed in the next two days, Jackson will play the 2022 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal, netting him $23 million.

The quarterback market has been booming this offseason, with Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson each signing extensions with an average annual value of at least $46 million.

At 25-years-old and with an MVP award already on his mantle, Jackson could be looking for even more than that.

Jackson was unwilling to comment on whether he and the Ravens are close to a new deal.

"I have no clue," Jackson said. "You have to ask the guy who I'm talking to. You talk to the GM [Ravens' Eric DeCosta] about that."

Cornerback Marlon Humphrey and tight end Mark Andrews are among the Baltimore players who have said publicly that Jackson has kept his focus on preparing for the season and that the contract negotiations have not been a distraction.

Still, Jackson has been clear that he would like to secure his long-term future in Baltimore sooner rather than later.

"It was a pretty big risk [playing] last season. The year before," Jackson said. "I'm just playing football.

"Anything can happen. God forbid the wrong thing happens."

With a new NFL season brings another chance to gain bragging rights over your friends in the world of fantasy football.

The 2022 campaign begins with a fascinating clash between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, one which should have plenty of fantasy intrigue given the plethora of offensive playmakers on show.

While fantasy players around the globe will need to have their lineups set in time for kick-off in Inglewood, it is the Sunday slate Stats Perform is concerned with this week.

Here we have picked out four offensive players and a defense who should be in your line-up for the opening week, provided of course you had the good sense to draft them.

Quarterback: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions

One of the quarterbacks under the most pressure to perform in 2022 gets a soft landing to start the season.

Hurts didn't have to do much to help the Eagles to a 44-6 beating of the Lions last season, but the dual threat should be licking his lips at the prospect of facing a defense that last season allowed the fourth-most yards per game (379.8) in the NFL.

Only four teams allowed more rush yards per game (135.1) than the Lions in 2021 and, despite some impressive offseason additions, there is little to suggest Hurts should not be able to excel on the ground and through the air in the season opener.

Running Back: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers made steps to improve their run defense in the offseason, but slowing down Cook figures to be a difficult challenge.

Cook has eight touchdowns in his last five games against the Packers (seven rushing, one receiving), a run that has included two 150-yard performances on the ground.

Playing in Kevin O'Connell's offense, Cook should continue to receive a lot of the wide zone carries that suit his playing style, making him a candidate for another big game in what should be a compelling contest.

Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Pittman produced his first 1,000-yard season in his second year in the league in 2021 and will unquestionably be the top target for new quarterback Matt Ryan in this campaign.

That is a very favourable position for Pittman to be in against a Texans team that allowed the third-most yards per pass play (7.12) in the NFL in 2021. Look for Ryan and Pittman to combine consistently to exploit Houston's vulnerability defending the pass.

Tight End: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets

Andrews has cemented himself as one of the top tight ends in the NFL and an extremely popular selection in fantasy football.

This week, he is an absolute must start against a Jets defense that should be improved after a strong offseason but surrendered the third-most passing yards in the league in 2021.

No tight end in the NFL was targeted more often than Andrews (153) last season and he should expect to be the favoured weapon of Lamar Jackson as the Ravens plot a return to the playoffs. The route to the postseason starts against the Jets, and the combination of his role and the opponent should deliver a productive start to the season for Andrews.

Defense/Special Teams: San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears

Week 1 can be strange, but the season opener at Soldier Field has all the hallmarks of a mismatch, one which San Francisco's defensive line should utterly dominate.

The 49ers' pass rush, led by Nick Bosa - who had 15.5 sacks last season - is ranked second in the NFL by Stats Perform AI, while the Bears' offensive line is ranked as the second-worst.

That is a recipe for a game in which the 49ers put Justin Fields under constant pressure and force a plethora of negative plays and turnovers en route to victory. Slide the Niners' defense into your line-up and profit.

The Buffalo Bills and emerging tight end Dawson Knox have agreed to a four-year extension through the 2026 season.

Knox, whose nine touchdown catches in 2021 tied for the most in the NFL for a tight end, will receive $31million guaranteed, according to NFL.com, with the total value of the deal coming in at $53.6m.

The 25-year-old Knox was entering the final season of his rookie contract.

"I couldn't be more excited to call this place home for another four years," Knox said in a social media post after the Bills announced his extension on Wednesday. 

"Can't wait to get this season rolling. Go Bills!"

A third-round pick of Buffalo in the 2019 draft, Knox compiled 52 catches for 676 yards and five TDs over his first two seasons before delivering a breakthrough 2021 campaign. 

The Mississippi State product set a franchise record for touchdown catches for a tight end and posted career highs of 49 receptions and 587 receiving yards in 15 games.

Knox added two more TD catches in Buffalo's 47-17 rout of the New England Patriots in the opening round of last season's AFC playoffs.

The fourth-year pro has also developed a special bond with the city of Buffalo, one which has grown stronger from the community's reaction to the sudden death of Knox's brother, Luke, in August. 

Bills fans raised over $200,000 in Luke's name to the P.U.N.T. foundation, a pediatric cancer charity that Dawson Knox has actively supported.

"The amount of texts I've gotten, the messages, the posts, the moment of silence for the preseason game – it's just been everything that I expected out of Buffalo and more because this city is incredible," Knox told the Bills' official site earlier this week.

"This is such an incredible city with such an incredible fan base and people. It really truly does feel like home. 

"I know I've said that before, but I kind of realised that for the first time when I came back up here after everything that it really does feel like a second home to me."

Luke Knox, a linebacker at Florida International University, died unexpectedly of unknown causes last month at the age of 22.

The New York Jets entered the week with Zach Wilson "possible" to start the season opener, but those hopes have now been dashed.

Coach Robert Saleh announced on Wednesday that the second-year quarterback would be sidelined until Week 4 at the earliest.

On Monday, Saleh said it was possible Wilson would be on the field against the Baltimore Ravens after he threw some passes and tested his right knee during a workout.

Wilson suffered a bone bruise and torn meniscus in the knee while scrambling in the Jets' preseason opener on August 12.

The 23-year-old had successful arthroscopic surgery four days later, and the original diagnosis was he would be out for two to four weeks.

Saleh, however, is now saying Wilson will be out until at least October 2, when his team face the Pittsburgh Steelers.

"We are going to make sure both mind and body are 110 per cent and make sure we do right by him," Saleh told reporters. "And we feel talking to the doctors and everyone, it's going to be that Pittsburgh week.

"After all the information gathering, it's just not worth the risk in terms of getting him out there. There's the knee element, there's the mind element, there's the practice element, there are a whole lot of things other than the knee."

Joe Flacco will feature on Sunday when the Jets host the Ravens. He spent his first 11 NFL seasons with Baltimore and guided the team to a championship in 2012 while being named Super Bowl MVP.

The 37-year-old Flacco is the Ravens' all-time leader in passing yards (38,245) and touchdown throws (212).

"I've been in a bunch of games where guys have played their past teams," Flacco said. "Usually, the emotions are definitely crazy. Guys try to act like they're so cool during the week. I've probably thought about it a tiny bit."

The Buffalo Bills are a team who have come to be defined by the agony they have suffered.

Though they are responsible for one of the most dominant stretches of offensive football in NFL history in the late 1980s and early 1990s and have more recently re-emerged as one of the most exciting teams in the league, the Bills are still yet to experience the ultimate glory of lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

Buffalo finished in the top seven for yards and points every year between 1989 and 1993 as the Bills' K-Gun offense illustrated just how devastating a no-huddle attack could be. Yet Marv Levy's star-studded group is best remembered for losing four successive Super Bowls between 90 and 93.

And Bills fans would be forgiven for pessimistically thinking the Josh Allen era is doomed to end without a first Super Bowl win in franchise history.

Allen has silenced critics who doubted his ability to improve his accuracy to become one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the modern NFL, and the Bills have been in the top five in offensive yards and points in each of the last two seasons.

However, those campaigns have both delivered heartbreaking playoff losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills on the wrong end of one of arguably the finest postseason game in NFL history, losing 42-36 having allowed the Chiefs to drive for a game-tying field goal in the final 13 seconds of regulation.

The Four Falls of Buffalo, as they were labelled in a 30 for 30 documentary about the Super Bowl losses, and '13 seconds' will forever live in franchise infamy.

But the Bills head into 2022 with a case for being the strongest team in the league. So, as they prepare to face the defending Super Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams in Thursday's mouth-watering season opener, how can Allen and Co. soothe the wounds of those missed opportunities by finally getting over the hump this season?
 

Taking the pressure off Allen

It may be a perplexing statement to read given Allen is fifth in passing yards (8,951) and fourth in passing touchdowns (73) over the past two seasons, but the Bills could maximise the impact of having the luxury of a quarterback of his talents by taking some of the pressure off his shoulders.

Buffalo's front office appeared to realise that this offseason, selecting running back James Cook in the second round of the draft.

Cook's burst through the running lane and up to the second level makes him an ideal fit for an offense that has found success with outside zone run concepts.

The Bills called outside zone on 21.26 per cent of their run plays last year, above the NFL average of 19.1. They put up 4.51 yards per play on such runs, again better than the league-wide average of 4.32.

Cook is a home-run hitter who can weaponise the threat of such runs in a way Devin Singletary and Zack Moss cannot. The Bills had 60 runs of 10 yards or more in 2021, the seventh-most in the NFL, but 28 of them came from QB Allen (Singletary had 20 while Moss delivered only six).

Should Cook's 4.4 speed translate to the pros, the Bills would have a back with the skill set to allow them to increase their menu of wide zone runs and make the zone-read more of a weapon. Despite the threat of Allen as a runner, the Bills averaged just 3.67 yards per play on zone-reads last season.

The Bills turned to run game on only 34.7 per cent of offensive snaps in 2021 and, when they did, the ball frequently remained in the hands of Allen, who has carried the ball 422 times since entering the NFL in 2018, a number second only to that of Lamar Jackson (615) among quarterbacks. Last season accounted for 122 of thsoe, with Jackson (133) and Jalen Hurts (139) the two signal-callers to attempt more runs.

Cook's arrival can take some of the onus off Allen as a runner, while the former Georgia back will hope to give his QB a few more easy buttons in the passing game.

His average of 10.9 yards per reception in a college career that spanned from 2018 to 2021 was seventh in the Power 5 in that time and first in the SEC, while Cook also racked up 11 receptions of at least 10 yards in 2021, tied for 12th among Power 5 backs.

Playing in an offense that has seen Allen consistently push the ball downfield -- Derek Carr (72) and Russell Wilson (70) were the only two quarterbacks to attempt more passes of at least 21 air yards last year than Allen's 68 -- Cook should have substantial space in underneath areas to exploit as a receiver.

If Allen takes advantage of those high-percentage throws when they come available, it will decrease the pressure on him to make the highlight reel passes to which the NFL universe has become accustomed, yet potential improvements in his accuracy could also have a massive bearing on his and the Bills' success in 2022.
 

Allen's extra 1%

Across the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, in which the Bills did not punt and scored a touchdown on every drive against the New England Patriots, and his equally remarkable performance in the '13 seconds game', Allen completed 77.4 per cent of his passes for 637 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.

He averaged 10.27 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 149.0 in an incredible finale to a campaign that makes talk of finding areas for improvement seem bizarre.

Yet the best athletes are always striving to find that extra one per cent and Allen looks to have indentified where his potentially lies.

"I think, myself especially, making sure I'm on time, making the right reads and giving our guys good enough balls to get some some more RAC [run after catch]," Allen said during the offseason.

"That's one thing I think, on offense, run after catch was wasn't very high last year, but again, that's me putting the ball where it needs to be and allow our guys to catch in a good position to make a run after the catch.

"So working on that, that's been been one of my biggest takeaways in this offseason and trying to work on just ball placement and allowing our receivers to do that."

Allen's assessment is backed up by the numbers. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen was last in yards after catch per reception with an average of just 4.5 in a season where his well-thrown percentage dropped significantly.

In his breakout 2020 season, Allen produced an accurate, well-thrown ball on 80.5 per cent of his pass attempts, the seventh-best ratio among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Last season, his well-thrown rate fell to 77.2, below the league average of 78.1 for signal-callers to reach three figures in attempts.

Though the difference in his YAC per reception was negligible -- Allen averaged 4.6 per completed pass in 2020 -- there is no doubt the Bills' offense would benefit from him rediscovering the accuracy of two seasons ago.

Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley have departed, but Stefon Diggs and the emerging Gabriel Davis represent two top two pass-catching weapons for Allen, and he also has two new targets for 2022 who should each thrive if he can do a better job leading his receivers.

Veteran Jamison Crowder has averaged 4.6 yards after catch per reception since 2019, almost a full yard more than Diggs (3.7) and rookie fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir possesses the vision, fluidity and love of contact to excel with the ball in his hands.

Allen improving his anticipation will go a long way to helping the Bills meet the expectations they face in 2022, but he could still use a helping hand from a loaded defense that was not without its own imperfections last year.
 

A more prolific pass rush

The Billls' headline addition of the offseason was that of Von Miller, the veteran edge rusher who arrived after displaying the plentiful amount of fuel he still has in the tank during a sojourn with the Los Angeles Rams that ended with his second Super Bowl title.

Miller finished the season with a stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 43.4 per cent, which was the fifth-highest among edge rushers with at least 100 one on one matchups.

Between Week 15 of the regular season and the Rams' Super Bowl triumph, Miller racked up nine sacks. Only in the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers did he fail to bring down the quarterback.

No surprise then, that Miller's acquisition sees the Bills pass rush enter the season fourth in Stats Perform's postional rankings.

Justifying that ranking is another matter, however.

The Bills did an excellent job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks last season, in which they were sixth in pass rush win rate. Yet there is clear room for improvement in converting those pressures into sacks. Buffalo registered 42 sacks in 2021, 39 of them for negative yardage - that latter number good enough for 12th in the NFL.

Buffalo will look for Miller to vastly improve the Bills' ability to turn pressures into negative plays, though the former Denver Bronco cannot do it alone. Gregory Rousseau, Carlos 'Boogie Basham' and A.J. Epenesa all had pressure rates below 17 per cent last season as the trio of edge rushers selected highly by the Bills over the course of the last two years struggled to justify their respective draft statuses. On the interior, Ed Oliver has never had more than five sacks since being picked in the top 10 in 2019.

It was in the Divisional Round where the Bills need for extra pass-rush help was encapsulated. Buffalo pressured Patrick Mahomes 23 times but registered just two sacks.

Any kind of disruption is production when it comes to the pass rush. Pressure often leads to critical mistakes, but the likes of Mahomes and his contemporaries have grown so adept at dealing with it - Mahomes threw just five interceptable passes on 194 attempts under duress last season - that is simply not enough to get into the backfield and expect bad results for the offense.

Simply put, the Bills must do a better job of ensuring their successful pass rushes pay dividends and consistently put opposing aerial attacks in disadvantageous situations

Success in doing so would improve the odds of an extremely talented secondary surviving cornerback Tre'Davious White's early-season absence and create more chances for an opportunistic defense to produce turnovers going up against offenses working from behind the chains.

The Bills' inconsistency in turning pressure into sacks, their need for more YAC and perhaps a less Allen-centric run game are all minor blemishes for arguably the most complete team in the NFL.

Yet small issues can quickly become significant problems in the spotlight of the postseason, and it would grealy behove the Bills to iron out the imperfections that could impact their hopes of finally ending their tortuous wait for a title.

The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has finally broken his silence regarding the team’s quarterback competition.

Mitch Trubisky will be the Steelers’ starter Sunday when they open the season at the Cincinnati Bengals, Tomlin confirmed in a press conference on Tuesday, a day after Trubisky was voted one of the team’s five captains.

"We're just really comfortable with what Mitch has shown us," Tomlin said. "He's a guy that came to us with franchise quarterback experience. He's comfortable in those shoes. He's been the focal point of a football team, in the organization before. He's had success in doing so.

"Like I mentioned when we acquired him, he took the Bears to the playoffs two out of four years. He has a winning record as a starting quarterback. Those things were attractive to us.

"His athleticism and mobility were attractive to us. He took care of the football in-stadium, all our quarterbacks did."

Trubisky won the job over 2022 first-round draft pick Kenny Pickett, who was confirmed to be the number two option. Mason Rudolph, who is entering his fourth season in Pittsburgh, is listed third on the depth chart.

The number two overall pick in 2016 by the Chicago Bears, Trubisky spent last season backing up Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills and signed a two-year, $14 million deal with the Steelers this offseason after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger.

A little over a month after signing Trubisky, the Steelers used the number 20 overall pick on Pickett, who played at the University of Pittsburgh.

While it is no surprise to see the Steelers starting the more experience quarterback to start the season, many pundits and Steelers fans alike wonder if Pickett’s ascension is only a matter of time.

"I thought [Pickett’s} acceleration of development really took off once we stepped into stadiums," Tomlin said. "And once we started stepping into stadiums, his decision-making – the fluidity of it – his competitive spirit, his pinpoint accuracy, all of those things I thought really came to the forefront. I thought that he grew – and grew at a really fast pace once we got into stadiums.

"And I also think it's reasonable to expect that growth and development to continue as we push into the regular season."

It seemed on a frenzied January night in Kansas City as though the AFC title would be decided by the toss of a coin.

The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries, coming up the field one last time to beat the Buffalo Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. were not to make the Super Bowl.

That the Chiefs were stunned by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game said a great deal for the strength in depth of the conference.

And that has been ratcheted up to another level over the course of the offseason, with Russell Wilson and Davante Adams among the notable names traded into the AFC.

The NFC may still have the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are no shortage of contenders here – including as many as four in one wild division out west.

The favourites

The Chiefs and the Bills would both have been hugely disheartened by the manner in which their seasons ended. Kansas City had the fortune that deserted Buffalo but were unable to make the most of their reprieve against the Bengals.

But that will merely make Mahomes and Josh Allen two of the more motivated superstars heading into the new season.

Mahomes is now without Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs' offensive line went from strength to strength as last season wore on, ranking third in pass protection win percentage by the year's end.

Meanwhile, Allen showed in that playoff blockbuster he can be every bit a match for Mahomes at his best. He threw nine touchdown passes across his two playoff games; no player had previously thrown more than seven while playing two games or fewer in a single postseason.

Allen will hope not to get the chance to better that record, this year targeting a run that goes far beyond the Divisional Round.

In the mix

The Bengals of course have to be considered after pushing the Los Angeles Rams all the way, while the Tennessee Titans actually matched the Chiefs for the best regular season record in the AFC despite Derrick Henry being limited to eight games, though the trade of receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles may restrict their ceiling on offense and ability to compete this year.

Deshaun Watson's suspension will give the Cleveland Browns work to do just to make the playoffs, but they may well be a serious threat if they get there.

A conference packed with quarterback talent also includes former MVP Lamar Jackson, who is fit again and looking to set the Baltimore Ravens back on course after a difficult 2021 in which they finished bottom of the AFC North.

But if the Chiefs are the team to beat, perhaps one of their division rivals can cause an upset. Each of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders have reasons to be optimistic.

Four contenders in the wild, wild AFC West

The Chiefs have won the AFC West six years in a row, but there is no guarantee that will become seven. The scale of the challenge before Kansas City represents a big boost to their AFC rivals – and to the neutrals, licking their lips at a must-watch season-long tussle.

Justin Herbert has long looked like making the Chargers contenders, with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history helping his offense finish fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747) last season. Crucially, the Chargers have added defensive help in the form of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson now, too.

Yet their offseason work perhaps pales next to that of the Broncos and the Raiders.

Wilson left the Seattle Seahawks for Denver, who promptly handed him a huge contract, clearly feeling he and Nathaniel Hackett can be the QB-coach combo they have been missing to return them to the postseason.

Support for that belief comes from Wilson's performance in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE), which measures a signal-caller's performance in expected passing situations against the league average. Despite playing only 14 games on a Seahawks team that finished in the NFC West cellar, Wilson was still 13th in EVE, just behind Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, Adams has reunited with former Fresno State team-mate Derek Carr on the Raiders, with Stats Perform's positional rankings subsequently considering Las Vegas to have the most talented skill players in the NFL.

The Chiefs will undoubtedly now be made to work for the division after years of dominance. 

Lamar out to right last year's wrongs

With half of the conference potentially in contention for a Super Bowl run, there is perhaps no true sleeper pick, but the Ravens will expect to go from worst to first in their division.

Much will depend on a return to form for dual-threat superstar Jackson.

Baltimore were firmly on course for the playoffs at the time of the ankle injury that kept Jackson out of the run-in in 2021, collapsing thereafter. However, it had already been by far the QB's worst season as a regular starter.

After 3,127 passing yards and 36 passing TDs and 1,206 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in his MVP season of 2019, Jackson had regressed slightly in 2020 and struggled further last year both through the air and on the ground.

In 12 games, Jackson threw just 16 TDs to 13 interceptions, while his 767 rushing yards saw him finish second among QBs to Jalen Hurts – a category he had dominated in the previous two campaigns.

Everything the Ravens do when they are good goes through Jackson, so his performance level will make or break their season.

Can Tua turn his fortunes around?

With the wealth of talent at the top of the AFC, there must also be some dregs at the bottom. The Miami Dolphins might fear they belong instead to that category.

The Dolphins made their own big move this offseason, taking elite receiver Hill out of the AFC West to give Tua Tagovailoa little excuse in his third season.

Hill got open on 82.7 per cent of his targets last season, with those skills of separation sure to come in useful when attempting to link up with a passer in Tagovailoa who threw to an open target just 73.8 per cent of the time.

The Dolphins are not expecting Tagovailoa to be Mahomes, but they need him to be much better than he has been thus far for this project to work.

The time is almost upon us. When that first ball is kicked at the start of the Los Angeles Rams' opener against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, we will be on our way to yet another enthralling season of NFL action.

And there are few better reasons to get excited at the beginning of a new campaign than the promise of a good old redemption story.

These tales may not necessarily revolve around someone who has suffered a fall from grace, though; in some cases, it might just be someone who has taken a smidge longer than expected to blossom.

So, before the thunder and lightning of a new NFL season, Stats Perform has taken a look at five men who could have a touch more motivation to show everything they have to offer in 2022.

Baker Mayfield – Carolina Panthers

Mayfield perhaps leaps out as the most obvious choice.

Big things were expected of the quarterback when he was the number one pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, charged with leading a flailing 0-16 Cleveland Browns.

There were moments of promise in his four years in Cleveland, throwing 27 touchdowns in 14 games in his first season, and in 2020 he played a big part in getting the Browns to the playoffs, unthinkable when he came through the door.

However, in 2021, Mayfield threw just 18 TD passes, the worst season of his career, as a Browns team who were starting to feel like they had outgrown him finished 8-9.

Of quarterbacks to have more than 300 passing attempts, only Sam Darnold (59.9), Trevor Lawrence (59.6) and Zach Wilson (55.6) had a lower pass completion percentage than his 60.5.

After a lot of uncertainty, he finally found a new home after being traded to the Panthers, who are in desperate need of a quality QB after the Darnold experiment failed last year.

It is a risk for both parties, and both need it to work, but you could also argue it could not get much worse for either.

Gabe Davis – Buffalo Bills

There had not been any immediately obvious signs that Davis was going to be a breakout star for the Bills for most of his first two seasons.

Seven TDs in his rookie year – and none in the playoffs from only four catches – were followed by just six in the 2021 regular season.

However, thanks to his explosive performance against the Kansas City Chiefs in last season's playoffs, plenty are excited about what could come from Davis and the much-fancied Bills in 2022.

His four TDs and 201 yards from eight receptions – for an average of 25.1 yards – were still not enough as the Chiefs ultimately won the AFC Divisional Round encounter in overtime, but Davis emerged as a potential new star.

By the end of the campaign, no player had recorded over 1,000 burn yards – yards in situations where a receiver 'wins' his matchup against a defender – from fewer receptions (45) than Davis.

But was this a one-off, or can Davis do it all over again? We will soon find out.

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence could end up being a very similar story to Mayfield. He was also the number one pick for a team with little else going for it.

In his rookie year, Lawrence threw for 12 TDs, but his poor pass completion percentage was set out above.

He remained a busy man regardless, with only six QBs making more than his 602 pass attempts, but the Jaguars could only manage three wins, two more than in 2020.

Whether it was sloppy throwing or feeling the need to take risks with little assistance, Lawrence threw 26 pickable passes, with only four QBs who made over 300 pass attempts seeing a worse pickable pass percentage than his 4.59 per cent (Jimmy Garoppolo – 4.82, Taylor Heinicke – 5.04, Zach Wilson – 5.21, Davis Mills – 5.56).

There is undoubted talent there, hence the hype when he was picked up by Jacksonville in 2021, and it is surely just a case of Lawrence having more help and getting more experience. We will perhaps see this season.

Matthew Stafford – LA Rams

Yes, it's another quarterback, but with a twist. This one just won the Super Bowl, after all.

It may seem strange given the ring he has on his finger, but the situation with Stafford's elbow means he must prove himself all over again.

In terms of numbers, the Rams QB has now established himself among the elite. Stafford ranks in the top 12 all-time in completions (11th, 4,302), passing yards (12th, 49,995), passing yards per game (sixth, 274.7), touchdown passes (12th, 323) and game-winning drives (seventh, 42).

Crucially, he led the team to Super Bowl success last year, too.

But the Rams' hopes of a repeat are pinned on Stafford being fit enough to perform all year long, and there are some worrying noises around an elbow issue heading into the year.

Should Stafford shake off those concerns and combine with Cooper Kupp for another outstanding season – and perhaps another ring – nobody could possibly doubt his legacy.

Kliff Kingsbury – Arizona Cardinals

It is not just players who have something to prove, but coaches, too – and you could argue Kingsbury does more than most.

While undoubtedly a talented coach, Kingsbury is building a reputation as someone who comes up with effective plays to start a season but is less able to adjust to keep ahead of the competition once they figure it out.

After winning their first seven games, the Cardinals raced out to a sensational 10-2 start last season, well ahead of projected results, only to stumble to 11-6 after losing four of their last five in the regular season, before being humbled 34-11 by the Rams in their first postseason game.

The excellent start cannot be ignored, but neither can the fact that it made nine seasons in a row in which a team led by Kingsbury have had a worse second half of the season than the first.

Despite being without DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games due to suspension, Kingsbury has an exciting team in Arizona and it would be no surprise to see them start strongly again.

They just need to figure out a way to maintain it this time.

Los Angeles Rams star Aaron Donald has drawn a line under his part in last Thursday's practice brawl against the Cincinnati Bengals, stating "what matters" is that he is ready for the season opener against the Buffalo Bills.

The defensive tackle was caught on camera in footage from a joint practice session between last season's Super Bowl finalists swinging a Bengals helmet as a weapon on August 25.

No ban has been handed down to him for his part in the fight, while Donald stated he did not wish to rehash the subject in an appearance on the AP Pro Football Podcast last week.

Speaking to media ahead of the NFL curtain-raiser against the Bills, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year reiterated his stance, while pointing out that nobody was injured in the incident.

"My main focus is Buffalo right now," Donald said. "I'm happy nobody got hurt in the practice and whatever, but my main focus is Thursday night against Buffalo.

"Everybody protected each other, everybody got out of the situation clean [and] healthy. So that's what matters. [I'm] ready for Week 1."

Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris meanwhile further added that the team treated the incident as a serious matter, but suggested it was an "error" of judgement more than an intentionally malicious move.

"You don't want to swing a helmet ever just at anybody in general, but there have been some helmets ripped off at times," he added.

"You never ever want to do those things. You don't want to have that on your resume.

"But at the same time, those things happen in practices. They're mistakes. They're errors and they're correctable when they happen at these times."

Pete Carroll has heard all the talk that the Seattle Seahawks are in for a season of struggle, but the veteran coach has urged his team to enjoy the thrill of the chase.

Russell Wilson completed a decade as the starting quarterback for the Seahawks before departing in March for the Denver Broncos, and Seattle could find life exceedingly difficult in his absence.

Geno Smith looks to have fended off Drew Lock to emerge as Carroll's preferred QB, but neither looks to possess the quality to plug the gap.

Lock (6.54) and Smith (5.88) were among the five worst quarterbacks (min. 50 attempts) by pickable pass percentage last season, and given Seattle's defense has become one of the league's weakest, it is not without good reason that many expect Seattle to prop up the NFC.

Carroll, who has been head coach of the Seahawks since 2010, is coming up for 72 next week, and his optimism still burns brightly.

His team start at home next Monday, against Wilson and the Broncos.

"I don't care what anybody says. People have been saying stuff about teams for years," Carroll said.

"They don't know. They're just guessing at this point, and then we go and prove it and we see where we are. Win a big game in the opener or struggle and not win a big game in the opener, you've got to come back and get going again and back on track regardless."

Carroll added: "I just think we're chasing instead of being chased, which I think is cool. I think it's exciting."

The coach led Seattle to Super Bowl glory in the 2013 season, but they finished with a 7-10 record last term.

The team's 2022 captains were revealed on Monday, with Tyler Lockett on offense, Quandre Diggs and Al Woods on defense, and Nick Bellore on special teams.

"I love the leadership. I love the speed," said Carroll, quoted by ESPN. "I love our style in all aspects and now we need to go out and show it and live up to what the expectations are. My expectations are very high."

He has no time for preseason pessimism, adding: "I don't see any reason my expectations should change at all."