The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

Lucky winners: Manchester United

Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

Unlucky losers: Manchester City

Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

Andoni Iraola was insistent that Bournemouth "didn't deserve to lose" as a 3-2 defeat at Brentford saw them travel back to the south coast with nothing to show for a decent performance.

Bournemouth had taken the lead twice, first through Evanilson and then Justin Kluivert, but could not hold on either time.

Yoane Wissa's brace and a goal from Mikkel Damsgaard handed Brentford the three points, as the Bees bounced back from their late capitulation to Fulham on Monday.

Iraola's team had the better of the chances, creating 2.6 expected goals (xG) to Brentford's 1.5, and the Spaniard felt the result was not a reflection of Bournemouth's display.

"I don't think we deserved to lose today. I think we were better for most of the game. Probably, they've been more efficient than us in the key moments, and they've made the difference," Iraola told BBC Radio Solent.

"We had very, very clear chances to score. We played really well again. The problem is when you lose, people always say, 'No, but you lost.' Against Everton [a 3-2 win in August], we played much worse, but we won, and it looks much different.

"Overall, we've been the better team, especially in the first half. I was very happy with the performance in the first half.

"We hit the crossbar at the end, and I think there was a clear penalty to Evanilson to score and make it 3-3, but we couldn’t do it."

Bournemouth's Brazilian striker Evanilson netted his third goal in as many games, making him the first Bournemouth player to score in three successive league games since Dominic Solanke in December last year.

Evanilson had shouts for a penalty denied on the hour mark after it appeared Ethan Pinnock had caught his leg, and Iraola was not satisfied with the explanation he received from the officials.

"They tell us he kicks himself, but he kicks himself because he was kicked. To me, it is very clear and obvious, but to them, they don't think so," he explained.

Thomas Frank concurred with Iraola's assessment of the visitor's strong first-half performance but praised his side's fightback.

"The bounce-back mentality was unbelievably good. Maybe even more impressive than if we had won 3-0 because we actually played badly in the first 20 minutes. Bournemouth were better than us," he told Sky Sports.

"We gave them clearly the first goal and then one or two other chances. But after that goal we stepped up and we found some of that great bounce-back mentality."

While Brentford are scoring plenty, they have shipped 12 goals in their last five games, though Frank is keen to focus on the positives.

"The positive is that we are a very dangerous team going forward," he said.

"We must be up there [as a team that's scored the most goals]. That is incredible. We are Brentford. I think that is insanely good. I think people don't understand how good it is.

"But of course, I am also very ambitious and I would love us to win 3-0 today."

Yoane Wissa’s brace helped Brentford claim another thrilling win as they twice came from behind to defeat Bournemouth 3-2 at the Gtech Community Stadium.

It was another high-scoring Premier League affair for Thomas Frank’s side at home, as his side have now scored three or more goals in their last three home wins.

They had to work hard for the three points, however, as Evanilson profited from a mistake from Sepp van den Berg to open the scoring early in the first half.

Wissa’s header cancelled out that opener before the break, while Mikkel Damsgaard got them back on level terms just one minute after Justin Kluivert had restored Bournemouth’s lead in the second half.

However, Wissa delivered the winner nine minutes later with a lovely dink to get the Bees back to winning ways after their heartbreaking late defeat to Fulham on Monday.

Brentford leapfrog their opponents into 10th on 16 points, with Andoni Iraola’s side one point behind them in 11th.

Data Debrief: Wissa leads the way for the Bees

Only Erling Haaland (19) has now scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League in 2024 than Wissa (15).

He has scored in each of his last five home Premier League games (7 goals), becoming the second player to do so for Brentford in the competition after Bryan Mbeumo, who did so last month against Ipswich.

The pair have been pivotal to Frank's side. Either Mbeumo or Wissa have had a hand in 68% of Brentford's goals in the Premier League this season.

Bournemouth have also profited from the form of their striker. Evanilson is the first Bournemouth player to score in three successive league games since Dominic Solanke in December 2023.

Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola expects a difficult game away to Brentford on Saturday, despite having taken seven points from their last three matches against top-four finishers.

The Cherries inflicted Manchester City's first league defeat of the season last weekend, while they had done the same to Arsenal two weeks before and earned a point at Villa Park between those matches.

"I'm not going to lie, we didn't expect seven points. Definitely, we didn't expect these points," he told the Bournemouth Echo.

“But it's true that it’s not the end of anything. We have to recover tomorrow and next week we go Brentford away.

“The way they are playing at home, it's going to be a very, very difficult game again and we have to continue to try to give us chances because it's going to be very difficult. This is the Premier League,”

Antoine Semenyo opened the scoring against City last week and is Bournemouth's top scorer with four goals. Iraola will be looking for another performance from him at the Gtech Community Stadium.

“He has been playing very well all the season," said Iraola.

“I think we demand him a lot because I think he can give a lot, and today probably he scores and everyone gives him more recognition.”

“I think Antoine is going to be always dangerous for every centre back, every full back that he attacks."

But ahead of their trip to Brentford, there was no chance of Iraola getting carried away with his side's recent form.

“To win one game in the Premier League against any team is very difficult," he said.

“You have to do a lot of things well. So, we have to continue because we need more points and we want to continue building and take advantage because we've got these points now against these teams.

“So, let's try to take this advantage and not lose it straight away.”

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Brentford – Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo has scored in all five of his Premier League appearances at home this season, with seven of his eight league goals coming at the Gtech Community Stadium.

The Cameroonian is equal-second in the Premier League top scorer standings on eight, level with Chris Wood and three behind Erling Haaland.

Bournemouth – Antoine Semenyo

Semenyo scored his fourth goal of the season last weekend, opening the scoring in Bournemouth's 2-1 victory at home to Manchester City.

The Ghanaian is his club's top scorer and has had the second-most shots (42) of any player in the Premier League this season.

MATCH PREDICTION: BRENTFORD WIN

Brentford come into this match having won four of their five Premier League home games this season, drawing the other.  No side has picked up more home points in the competition this season so far than the Bees (13, level with Man City), while no side has scored more home goals than Thomas Frank’s side (15, level with Tottenham).

That isn't great news for Bournemouth, who have kept just one clean sheet in the Premier League this season. They are also yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their six games on the road in all competitions so far, while Bournemouth's only away win this season was a 3-2 victory over 16th-placed Everton in August

Brentford are also unbeaten in their last seven matches against Bournemouth (W5 D2), which is a run that stretches back to August 2014. In fact, Bournemouth haven't won a league game away to Brentford since October 2005 (D5 L4), in which they beat them 2-0 when both teams were in League One.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Brentford – 44.1%

Draw – 26.8%

Bournemouth – 29%

Pep Guardiola admitted Manchester City "could not handle" the intensity of Bournemouth after falling to a 2-1 defeat on the south coast.

Goals from Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson saw City fall to a 2-0 deficit for the first time since January 2023 (against Tottenham), before Josko Gvardiol headed in what proved to be a consolation late on.

The defending champions had been struggling with injuries in the build-up to the fixture, leading to a bench with an average age of 23 years old.

Guardiola blamed those injury troubles for his side's failure to get back in the game at the Vitality Stadium.

"We knew we couldn't match the intensity. We have talked about it. It was an open game. We had chances at the end but I congratulate Bournemouth for the victory," he told BBC Sport.

"The 50-50 balls in the middle, the duels, they play this type of game. They are so aggressive. They had six, seven days to prepare. They have physicality and speed, but you have to win these types of situations.

"We have few players with a lot of minutes and a lot of players with no minutes to the balance is a bit uncomfortable. We played good against Spurs but today we could not handle their intensity that they had and that's why we lost the game."

City still managed to accumulate a higher expected goals (xG) total, finishing on 1.8 compared to Bournemouth's 1.74.

That was boosted significantly when struggling Erling Haaland saw a header saved in stoppage time before crashing the rebound against the base of the post from close range.

"We had real good moments at the start of the second half and after that it was difficult to swallow as we were good. After we scored we had momentum and chances but couldn't score [again]," added Guardiola.

It was an entirely different story for the hosts, who registered a third home victory on the bounce, after defeating City's title rivals Arsenal in October.

"It was a great game. We did everything we could. We needed our very best performance and not the greatest game [from City] and that happened. It is very good to beat City and even better to beat them deservedly," enthused Andoni Iraola.

"It is very difficult. They are a great team. They have amazing subs and you have to suffer, stay compact. We suffered after a good game. We had the chance to finish it and not suffer too much at the end, but now we have to enjoy it.

“We know there are better teams than us but it is not easy to play here and we have to keep this level so everyone knows that when they come here it will not be an easy game."

The victory came in no small part due to the standout performances of Semenyo and Milos Kerkez

Semenyo was central to every Bournemouth attack and accumulated 0.56 xG and created three chances, the highest in his team.

Kerkez proved instrumental, too, delivering both assists off the left wing, first beating Kyle Walker to drive to the byline and cut back for Semenyo's opener, before providing a brilliant cross for Evanilson to prod in Bournemouth's second.

"They played very well the last few games and today they had the finishing product. Milos had two assists, we felt he deserved to get the numbers and I am happy as it was a complete performance," added Iraola.

"To beat a team like City you need everyone to play really well and they did."

Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson helped give Bournemouth their first-ever league win against Manchester City as they beat the defending champions 2-1 at the Vitality Stadium.

The hosts boosted their giant-killing credentials as they secured a third home victory on the bounce, having beaten Arsenal last time out.

Semenyo got Bournemouth off the mark inside 10 minutes as he turned to fire in at the far post from the centre of the box, before Evanilson doubled the lead after the restart.

Josko Gvardiol gave the visitors a consolation goal with a brilliant header at the back post on 82 minutes but it was too little too late.

While Erling Haaland hit the post and Phil Foden fired just wide in a frantic stoppage time, Bournemouth secured all three points and left Pep Guardiola's man to travel back north empty-handed.

City drop down to second and fail to take advantage of Arsenal’s earlier falter, while Bournemouth move up to eighth.

Data Debrief: Historic victory for Bournemouth ends City's winning streak

This is the host's first-ever win against City in all competitions (D2 L19 before today), while it’s their first league win over the reigning Premier League champions since a 3-0 win over Chelsea in January 2018.

The defeat brings City's 32-game Premier League unbeaten run to an end. They’ve lost successive matches in all competitions for the first time since September 2023.

This is their first defeat when going at least two goals behind in a Premier League game since October 2021 against Crystal Palace, having avoided defeat on their last five previous occasions before today (W3 D2).

Conversely, Bournemouth's fortunes are looking up. They are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games, with those results coming against three of last season's top four (W2 D1).

This is just the fourth time they’ve won three successive home games in the Premier League after October 2016, February 2018 and April 2024.

The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.

United's decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.

Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition's history.

But what do the underlying metrics tell us? 

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more. 

And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto's last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche's team.

Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton's 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts' 10. That being said, perhaps Silva's side only have themselves to blame - they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Evanilson's late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.

Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth's 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.

Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG - the fifth-highest total in the division across the games - while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.

He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley's opener. Indeed, Villa's 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.

Andoni Iraola's team certainly rode their luck.

Unlucky losers: Man Utd

Ten Hag's time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham's favour.

When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG - just less than United's 2.34.

United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend's matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro's close-range header.

The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag's tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery said his side deserved the win after they were pegged back in a late 1-1 draw by Bournemouth in the Premier League. 

Coming on the back of a 2-0 defeat of Bologna – their third straight win in the Champions League which propelled them to the top of the 36-team table – Villa were frustrated by a brilliant goalkeeping display from Mark Travers. 

But they found a way past the 25-year-old custodian in the 76th minute when Ross Barkley came off the bench to turn in a ball from Leon Bailey. 

The Cherries, however, had the final say at Villa Park as Evanilson glanced a Marcus Tavernier free-kick into the net to salvage a point for the visitors in the sixth minute of stoppage time. 

The result left Spanish tactician Emery frustrated as Villa were held to a third draw in four league matches, despite an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.8 and several attempts on target against the visitors on Saturday. 

"We played a fantastic match. We played I think the best minutes since the start of the season. The first half we controlled the game, but we didn't score, or when we did it was a no goal,” Emery told Sky Sports. 

"The second half we started even better than the first half. We were pushing, dominating, creating chances. The goalkeeper was saving a lot of times.

"We scored the goal, fantastic, but we didn't manage the last 10 minutes. They scored at the last moment and we have to accept it.

Evanilson scored a 96th-minute equaliser as Bournemouth rescued a thrilling 1-1 draw against Aston Villa at Villa Park.

The hosts bossed proceedings for much of the game, but Mark Travers’ goalkeeping heroics for Bournemouth kept the fixture goalless for 76 minutes.

Ross Barkley came off the bench to find the breakthrough for Unai Emery's side, who posted a 2-0 win against Bologna in midweek to go top of the 32-team Champions League table.

But there was to be a twist deep in stoppage time as Bournemouth produced some late drama. 

Substitute Evanilson headed in from Marcus Tavernier's free-kick to snatch a point for the Cherries and frustrate Villa, who had a goal overturned by VAR in the first half.

Third-placed Villa are now five points behind leaders Manchester City, while Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth sit 10th, having collected 12 points from nine matches.

William Saliba's red card marked Arsenal's third dismissal in just eight Premier League games, leaving Mikel Arteta frustrated by the mistakes that led to their 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth.

The France centre-back was sent off following a VAR review in the 30th minute for bringing down Evanilson and denying him a goalscoring opportunity.

Despite digging in, Arsenal were unable to maintain their unbeaten start, as Ryan Christie and Justin Kluivert's second-half goals subjected them to a first defeat of the season.

It is the first campaign since 2011-12 that the Gunners have had as many as three players sent off in their opening eight matches of a Premier League season.

In fact, since Arteta's first game in charge of Arsenal on Boxing Day 2019, they have been shown 18 red cards in the top flight, at least five more than any other side.

While they managed to hold onto results against Brighton and Manchester City after going down to 10, Arteta admitted it was going to cost them eventually.

"It's very difficult to win in the Premier League with 10 men for 60-70 minutes, it's just an accident waiting to happen. We have had to go through it in three games and that cost us the game," he told BBC Match of the Day.

"We had the big chance and the moment in the game to score and have a different result, and then we conceded a goal. We try to stick to the rules. The three [red cards] have been different ones and three very different outcomes.

"The team tried, the effort with 10 men was fantastic, but today it was not enough to win the game. It took us a while to understand what we had to do in the first 15 minutes to start with, then we grabbed the game, but after 30 minutes, the game changed."

Bournemouth secured just their second-ever Premier League victory over Arsenal in 15 meetings, and their first since January 2018, when they won 2-1.

Andoni Iraola's substitutes did the damage for the Cherries, with Kluivert both scoring and assisting in a Premier League game for the first time.

Iraola was delighted by the maturity shown in his team's performance as they bounced back from a disappointing loss to Leicester City before the break.

"It was quite a mature win because it is a tricky situation [playing against 10 men]," Iraola told Sky Sports.

"We started well for the first 30 minutes and then the red card changes the game. We had to control the game, attack but not lose our minds, as even with 10 men, set plays, free-kicks they could be a threat. Luckily for us, we took the benefit of having one man more.

"Before half-time, we missed a couple of chances and at the beginning of the second half we managed not to finish, so we had to have patience to take the benefit of having one more player without losing our heads.

"We were playing very well the first 30 minutes. It was a very level game, which is very good when you face this opposition. It became easier with 11 v 10 but everything is not done, you have to finish the job, and we did it."

Ryan Christie and Justin Kluivert dealt 10-man Arsenal their first Premier League defeat of the season as Bournemouth triumphed 2-0 on Saturday.

William Saliba received his marching orders on the half-hour mark for denying Evanilson a goalscoring opportunity, giving the hosts a glorious opportunity for an upset at the Vitality Stadium.

And midway through the second half, Bournemouth took that chance, with Christie breaking the deadlock in the 70th minute before Kluivert doubled their advantage from the penalty spot.

That calmly taken spot-kick ensured Arsenal could not salvage a result to maintain their unbeaten start to the campaign as the Gunners came up short on a frustrating day for Mikel Arteta.

The Gunners stay third, missing the chance to go top with Liverpool and Manchester City not playing until Sunday, while Bournemouth moved up to 10th after collecting their third win of the season.

Data Debrief: Cherries halt Arsenal's unbeaten start

Arsenal were one of just two unbeaten sides left in the Premier League going into the weekend, but a lacklustre performance on the south coast has taken that tally to just one. 

Despite not showing much of a threat at the start, the game turned with Saliba's sending-off - in his 93rd appearance for Arsenal in all competitions, he received his first red card.

But do not let that take away from Bournemouth's second-half showing. Kluivert both scored and assisted in a Premier League game for the first time, while each of his last four goals have come at the Vitality Stadium.

Mikel Arteta believes Kai Havertz still has a further level to reach after enjoying an excellent start to the season with Arsenal, who go to Bournemouth when the Premier League resumes on Saturday.

Arsenal emerge from the second international break of 2024-25 one point adrift of Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table with 17 points from seven matches. 

With four goals and an assist, Havertz has been a key factor in their positive start, excelling in his new false nine role and scoring a crucial equaliser as they fought back to beat Southampton 3-1 before the hiatus.

Asked if Havertz was now playing with greater confidence, Arteta said: "You can tell. He takes the ball and he runs with the ball. 

"He's on the high press, he goes full gas, the way he holds the ball, the positions he takes in the box. When he plays as a nine, you don't know where he is, that's his football brain. 

"His focus now is, 'I'm going to win the game, I'm going to do it', and that's a different thing.

"He wants more and he's not satisfied with what he's doing because there is still, I think, another level from him."

Opponents Bournemouth are 14th with eight points, having suffered a demoralising 1-0 defeat to previously winless Leicester City two weeks ago.

After that game, boss Andoni Iraola told BBC Sport: "It's difficult to explain, you need to score. We had a disallowed goal, hit the post, the crossbar, we had enough chances to win.

"We have to give merit to their offensive side but on the other side we are missing very clear chances. There are chances that you cannot miss altogether. 

"We have to be more clinical and it is hurting us. All the games apart from Liverpool we have created more chances, but we are not getting the points."

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Bournemouth – Antoine Semenyo

Bournemouth have had more shot-ending high turnovers than any other side in the Premier League this season (18), while only three sides have faced fewer such shots than the Cherries (six).

Semenyo, who leads all Bournemouth players for goal involvements (four – three goals, one assist) and successful dribbles (12) this term could have a key role to play on the counter.

Arsenal – Kai Havertz

Havertz has been involved in 20 goals in his last 21 Premier League appearances (13 goals, seven assists). 

His first goal for Arsenal came in this exact fixture last season, as he converted a penalty in a 4-0 victory for the Gunners. Could he be in for more joy on the south coast?

MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN

Arsenal are unbeaten in all 10 of their games in all competitions so far this season (seven wins, three draws) – they last had a longer unbeaten run from the start of a campaign in 2007-08 (first 21).

They are chasing a landmark victory, as their 3-1 win over Southampton last time out was their 1,999th top-flight triumph. Victory here would see them become the second English side to reach 2,000, after Liverpool (2,065).

Bournemouth, meanwhile, have lost 11 of their 14 Premier League games against Arsenal, though all three exceptions have been at home (3-3 in January 2017, 2-1 in January 2018, 1-1 in December 2019).

But a repeat should not be expected here. Each of Bournemouth's last 10 Premier League wins have been against sides in the bottom half of the table. 

Andoni Iraola's men are winless in their last 11 matches against sides in the top half since beating Manchester United 3-0 in December last year (four draws, seven losses).

Arsenal boast a tremendous record against the Cherries lately, too. Since Bournemouth returned to the Premier League in 2022, the Gunners have won all four of their meetings with the Cherries by an aggregate score 13-2, netting three or more goals each time.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Bournemouth – 16.1%

Arsenal – 65.2%

Draw – 18.7%

There were plenty of thrills and spills across the board in the Premier League as matchday seven ran its course.

Manchester City and Arsenal both had to come from behind to beat Fulham and Southampton respectively at home, while there were eight goals scored as Brentford overcame Wolves 5-3, with six of those strikes coming in the first half in west London.

Liverpool kept themselves ahead at the summit thanks to a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace, while Manchester United stopped the rot by holding Aston Villa, albeit they have now tallied up their lowest points total after seven games of any Premier League season.

Leicester City, meanwhile, grabbed their first win of the campaign, while Anthony Gordon endured a miserable return to Goodison Park with Newcastle United. In the final fixture of the weekend, Brighton stunned Tottenham, forging a second-half comeback to win 3-2 at the Amex Stadium.

So, after all that, who were the unlucky, and lucky, teams based on the underlying metrics?

Lucky winners: Leicester City

Leicester finally got their first top-flight win of the season on the board, as they edged out Bournemouth 1-0 thanks to Facundo Buonanotte's excellent run and finish.

But, it's fair to say it was something of a smash-and-grab for Steve Cooper's team at the King Power Stadium. Leicester had just six shots, with only two of those hitting the target, and they tallied up just 0.79 expected goals (xG).

On the other hand, Bournemouth had 19 attempts, creating five big chances (a tally bettered only by Brentford's eight and West Ham's nine this week) and accumulating 2.16 xG.

Bournemouth only have themselves to blame for wasteful finishing – they got just two of their efforts on target – but the Cherries can still consider themselves unfortunate.

Unlucky losers: Newcastle

Determined to impress against his former club, Gordon fluffed his lines when his big moment arrived as Newcastle drew 0-0 with Everton on Saturday.

With James Tarkowski having conceded a penalty by recklessly pulling the shirt of Sandro Tonali, Gordon stepped up to the spot, but Jordan Pickford guessed the right way.

While Everton wanted a penalty of their own in the second half, the Toffees were largely second-best and that is backed up by the metrics. Even discounting Gordon's spot-kick, Newcastle finished with 1.26 xG and 14 shots. The hosts accumulated 0.67 xG and had eight attempts.

Lucky winners: Man City

It's not often that the champions are given a run for their money at home, but Fulham did just that.

Indeed, Fulham finished with 2.6 xG at the Etihad Stadium, the fourth-highest total across the league this weekend, while they created five big chances.

Pep Guardiola has said he is not concerned by Man City's unusually open defence, but he will want to see better from his team in that regard after the international break.

Going forward, City benefited from three excellent finishes - two from Mateo Kovacic and one from Jeremy Doku. Their 1.57 xG came from 20 shots, though they created only one big chance.

Leicester City finally got their first win of the Premier League season, defeating Bournemouth 1-0 at the King Power Stadium.

Facundo Buonanotte scored the winning goal for Steve Cooper’s side in the 16th minute with a stunning curling effort.

Bournemouth put on a much better display in the second half though, with Lewis Cook having a direct free-kick ruled out for offside 66 minutes in.

Illia Zabarnyi and Dango Ouattara also hit the woodwork as the Cherries continued to dominate, but they fell short of finding an equaliser.

The Foxes move up to 15th place, with six points from seven matches, while Bournemouth sit 13th – two points better off their opponents.

Data Debrief: Buonanotte at his best

While Leicester had to wait for their first victory since returning to the top flight, it came via a player who had already impressed under Cooper.

Buonanotte now has four goal involvements in six Premier League appearances this season – already his joint-most across a single campaign in the competition (also four for Brighton and Hove Albion in 2023-24). 

Indeed, his four goal contributions in his last five league games is as many as he managed in his previous 36 matches.

Leicester had to come through plenty of pressure at the other end, but they held firm for their first home clean sheet in the Premier League since October 2022 – a 2-0 win over Leeds United that game 16 home top-flight games ago.

Steve Cooper insists the mood at Leicester City is not downbeat as the Foxes' wait for a first Premier League win rolls into matchday seven.

Leicester fought back from 2-0 down away at Arsenal last time out, only for two goals in second-half stoppage time from the Gunners to break their resolve.

Attention now turns to a home game against Bournemouth, who beat Leicester's fellow promoted side Southampton 3-1 on Monday.

And though Leicester sit in 17th without a win to their name, Cooper is not down in the doldrums.

As reported by Leicestershire Live, he said: "We're not heads down and we're not of the mindset that we'll be okay either.

"Both of those mindsets are dangerous. We're in the middle of that, where we're frustrated that we haven’t been able to get more out of the games, but there's a constant determination to put things right.

"We have to make sure the mindset is right with the players. I really believe that will happen, convinced of it, that we will get what we want from this season."

One bright spark this season for Leicester came off the pitch, as they won an appeal that means they cannot be penalised by the Premier League for an alleged breach of the competition's financial rules in the 2022-23 season.

This means Leicester are extremely unlikely to be hit with a points deduction for that supposed breach.

"The landscape has definitely changed on that front," said Cooper.

"Even when that was looming over us, it wasn't interfering with our daily work either.

"What we want to achieve, as we decided on, it's still very much achievable. When we achieve it, we will look back and say it was a rocky road."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Leicester City - Wilfred Ndidi

Bukayo Saka (five) is the only Premier League player with more assists than Ndidi (four) this season.

Ndidi's four assists is just one fewer than he managed in 32 Championship appearances last term, while it is already his joint-best in a single Premier League campaign (also four in 2020-21).

Bournemouth - Antoine Semenyo

Only Erling Haaland (31) has had more shots than Semenyo (28) in the Premier League this season, with Semenyo the only Bournemouth player to score more than once so far (three).

The Ghana international has also completed the most dribbles (eight) and had the most touches in the opposition box (34) of any Cherries player in the competition this term.

MATCH PREDICTION: BOURNEMOUTH WIN

Cooper has never beaten Bournemouth in five attempts in all competitions (D2 L3). It is the joint-most he has ever faced an opponent as a manager without ever winning (also five vs Manchester United).

Leicester have faced more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season (114), with their 34 faced against Arsenal last time out their most on record (since 2003-04) in a single match in the competition.

However, since winning four consecutive away league games in November/December last season, Bournemouth have won just three of their last 13 on the road (D3 L7), with two of those wins coming against sides in the relegation zone.

That being said, Bournemouth have won each of their last three Premier League games against Leicester, their joint-longest winning run against the Foxes in their league history (also three between 1987 and 1989).

Leicester have won just two of their 12 Premier League games against Bournemouth (D5 L5), with both of those victories coming at the King Power Stadium in 2019 (2-0 in March, 3-1 in August).

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Leicester City - 31.5%

Bournemouth - 43.3%

Draw - 25.1%