The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.
Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.
Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.
When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.
Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.
Lucky winners: Manchester United
Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.
However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.
United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.
Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.
Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.
Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...
Unlucky losers: Manchester City
Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.
Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.
Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.
Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.
City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.
Unlucky losers: Bournemouth
If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.
Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.
Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.
Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.
Garvey Maceo rise from cusp of defeat to stun McGrath High and clinch third daCosta Cup crown
It is often said that it’s never over until it’s over, and Garvey Maceo High epitomized that saying when they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a 5-3 win on penalties against first-time finalist McGrath High in a pulsating ISSA/Wata daCosta Cup final at the National Stadium on Saturday.
The Linstead-based McGrath High seemed destined for glory after Devone Davis struck in the 15th minute, but Omarion O’Brian shattered their dreams with a last-gasp equalizer in the 90+7 minute to send the game into the dreaded penalty shootout.
Much like they did in the semi-final against Glenmuir High, the Clarendon-based Garvey Maceo held their nerves best from the 12-yard spot to secure their third title, adding to their triumphs in 2007 and 2021.
Acting Head coach Lester Hibbert was overwhelmed with pride, having stepped in seamlessly for Merron Gordon, who took a sabbatical this season.
“We just had to believe. We never gave up, even when the odds were stacked against us, because a true believer is a real believer. We did it. Being past students of the institution is what drove us and gave us the passion to keep going. Even when it seemed as if the time was going to run out on us, we fought, and this one is for those who never stopped believing in us,” a beaming Hibbert said in a post-game interview.
Both teams began the contest with attacking intent, and McGrath drew first blood when Davis dispossessed defender Malik Robinson and unleashed a fierce left-footer that whistled past Garvey Maceo’s goalkeeper Garfield Tomlinson for his 12th goal of the season.
Garvey Maceo pressed for an equalizer and created half-chances but failed to capitalize.
McGrath, eager to extend their lead, also missed crucial opportunities, as they remained 1-0 up at the break.
The second half offered little in terms of clear chances. However, McGrath’s Dontae Anderson nearly doubled their lead in the 53rd minute, but Devany McIntosh cleared his header off the line after Tomlinson spilled a corner from Shane Pusey.
Minutes later, Jim Mitchell had an opportunity to seal the game for McGrath but fired into the side netting in the 77th minute.
With time ticking away, Garvey Maceo launched a desperate push, and it paid off in the dying moments of added time when O’Brian twisted and turned before finding space for a low right-footed shot from outside the 18-yard box that sailed past Orlando Griffiths, sparking wild celebrations.
In the shootout, Garvey Maceo again showed nerves of steel, converting all five of their attempts through Devany McIntosh, Tyreek McKenley, Delano Thompson, Malik Robinson, and Rajay McLaughlin.
Meanwhile, Jim Mitchell, David Hutchinson, and Marcelo Gordon found the net for McGrath, but Isaac Mason’s effort was denied by Tomlinson.
McGrath’s Head coach, Jermaine Thomas, who guided the school to its historic Ben Francis Cup win last year, must wait a little longer for a first daCosta Cup crown but was still gracious in defeat.
“Once Devone was out, it was always going to be difficult for us, but nevertheless, they fought and fought gallantly. We turned up and we showed Jamaica that this is the school from Linstead and we can compete, but a lapse in concentration at the back cost us in added time, but still they played their hearts out, and I am extremely proud of them,” Thomas noted.
LA Galaxy 2-1 New York Red Bulls: Paintsil and Joveljic goals secure MLS Cup
The LA Galaxy claimed a record-extending sixth MLS Cup by beating the New York Red Bulls 2-1, with early goals from Joseph Paintsil and Dejan Joveljic securing the trophy.
The Galaxy raced into a two-goal lead within 13 minutes as they made a blistering start on home soil at Dignity Health Sports Park, and they held firm after the Red Bulls halved the arrears midway through the first half.
Gaston Brugman threaded a lovely throughball into the path of Paintsil, who slotted his finish under Carlos Coronel for a ninth-minute opener.
Four minutes later, Greg Vanney's men had breathing space as Joveljic escaped the Red Bulls backline to prod home with the outside of his boot.
Daniel Edelman narrowly avoided putting through his own net soon afterwards, then New York clawed one back through captain Sean Nealis, who volleyed home following an inswinging corner Emil Forsberg.
Noah Eile missed one glorious chance before teeing up another for Dante Vanzeir, but the Galaxy held firm, almost adding a third goal when Miki Yamane cannoned a shot against the post shortly after the hour-mark.
Data Debrief: Galaxy out on their own
The LA Galaxy already held the record for most MLS Cup triumphs ahead of Saturday's showpiece game, with their sixth success now taking them two clear of D.C. United.
The win ended their 10-year wait for a title, last claiming the crown when a team containing Landon Donovan and Robbie Keane beat the New England Revolution in 2014.
Girona 0-3 Real Madrid: Bellingham and Mbappe score as Blancos close on Barcelona
Real Madrid closed the gap on LaLiga leaders Barcelona to two points with a commanding 3-0 win at Girona, with goals from Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler and Kylian Mbappe.
Second-placed Madrid have 36 points with a game in hand on Barca, who drew 2-2 at Real Betis earlier on Saturday, after inflicting Girona's sixth loss of the campaign.
Bellingham opened the scoring in the 36th minute by capitalising on a loose ball and firing home from the centre of the box, with the England international then turning provider for Madrid's second goal.
Ten minutes into the second half, his defence-splitting throughball teed up Guler to double Madrid's lead, though Bellingham was withdrawn with an injury soon afterwards.
Mbappe then added further gloss shortly after the hour mark, firing home from a tight angle for his ninth league goal of the season.
Data debrief: Mbappe brings up double century
Mbappe's ninth league goal for Madrid was also his 200th in his career across Europe's top five leagues, on his 261st such appearance.
He netted 16 times for Monaco and 175 times with Paris Saint-Germain.
He was not the only Blancos star with something to celebrate, as Bellingham made it five straight games with a goal for the very first time in Europe's top leagues, though his second-half exit will concern Carlo Ancelotti.
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