The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.
Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.
Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.
When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.
Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.
Lucky winners: Manchester United
Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.
However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.
United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.
Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.
Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.
Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...
Unlucky losers: Manchester City
Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.
Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.
Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.
Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.
City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.
Unlucky losers: Bournemouth
If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.
Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.
Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.
Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.
Manchester City and Bayern Munich maintain 100% records with comfortable wins
Manchester City maintained their perfect start to their Women's Champions League campaign with a 2-0 victory at home to Hammarby.
The Citizens sit top of Group D with nine points from their opening three games, with their latest result following up wins over St. Polten and 2023-24 champions, Barcelona.
Gareth Taylor's side also extended their unbeaten start to the campaign in all competition, winning every game since drawing with Arsenal on the opening day of the Women's Super League season.
Both teams went in at half-time level following a first half in which quality was at a premium, following a couple of half-chances for the home side.
The hosts went ahead just two minutes into the second half after a finish from Laura Blinkilde Brown, after Aoba Fujino had struck the woodwork earlier.
Khadija Shaw and Fujino both went close to doubling the lead, with the former having a goal disallowed in the 67th minute for offside after being picked out by Mary Fowler.
Fujino sealed a comfortable victory for City, netting their second on 79 minutes to seal a win in the first meeting between the two sides in the competition.
And City were worthy winners in the contest. They ended with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.75 from their 16 shots, though only three of their efforts were on target.
Elsewhere, Bayern Munich were also comfortable winners with a 3-0 home victory over Valerenga in a game the visitors never looked like taking anything from.
Bayern went a goal up in 10 minutes, with former Chelsea forward Pernille Harder heading home from inside the box for her fifth strike in three games in the competition.
Just seven minutes later, they were firmly in control of the match as Giulia Gwinn doubled their lead with a penalty after Elise Thorsnes had fouled Weronika Zawistowska.
The German side dominated the game, with more possession (76% to 24%), more shots (15 to 7) and a higher xG (1.95 to 0.47) than their opponents.
Bayern were able to add a third that their performance merited in second-half stoppage time, with Sarah Zadrazil sending a stunning volley beyond Tove Enblom.
The result leaves them top of their group with three victories from three matches, three points above second-placed Arsenal.
Valerenga are bottom of Group C and are still waiting for their first point of the competition.
England-born Isaac Hayden upbeat ahead of Boyz debut in high-stakes Nations League quarterfinal clash against US
Isaac Hayden is counting down the days to what promises to be a special milestone in his career—making his debut with the Reggae Boyz in the highly anticipated Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal clash against the United States.
The England-born midfielder has waited a long time for this moment, as his journey to this point has been marked by anticipation and heritage, and he’s ready to embrace both when he takes the field for the first-leg clash at the National Stadium on Thursday. The return leg is set for November 18 at Energizer Park.
“Yeah, things have been really, really good, and the first day has been fantastic. The lads and the staff have welcomed me in so well, and I’m just really, really excited to be here and hoping to contribute,” Hayden said with a smile.
For Hayden, this home leg, in particular, holds more than just competitive weight, as it also serves a family reunion of sorts given that his father and both grandparents were all born on the island.
Having represented England from the Under-16 to the Under-21 levels, Hayden declared his ambition to play for the Three Lions at senior level in 2019, but changed track to switch allegiance to Jamaica as he felt the significance of bringing those family ties full circle.
“I've still got some family members over here now who I think are going to come to the game on Thursday. It’s good to finally get it (the switch) done and get it over the line. It’s been a long time coming, and yeah, I’m just looking forward to it,” Hayden declared.
That said, the 29-year-old pointed out that adapting to the new environment has been an enjoyable process as he is quickly adjusting to the Caribbean conditions after his recent arrival.
“I had a good session with some of the lads. Obviously, some of the lads are still to come, but it was still a good group out there. Training and acclimatising to the weather... everything’s been fine; it has been smooth sailing. I am really enjoying myself so far,” Hayden shared enthusiastically.
Hayden’s smooth transition in the Reggae Boyz setup has been aided by a trusted figure in Head coach Steve McClaren, whose guidance and familiarity have given Hayden an extra layer of comfort.
In fact, the gravity of Jamaica’s World Cup ambitions is not lost on Hayden either. As a player with a wealth of experience from his days in England, Hayden is well aware of the task ahead.
“I've known the gaffer for a while. We had a few conversations before, and it was something he thought I could add to the group in a positive way. For me, I wanted to come in and contribute the best way possible to improve the team’s chances of getting to the next round of the Nations League, and then obviously looking further ahead is obviously World Cup qualification, which is a huge, huge goal of everyone here,” he noted.
Rated highly by former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger as a player whose key assets are concentration, intelligence, and strength, Hayden is energized and eager to parade his versatility in front of passionate Jamaican fans.
The Newcastle United defensive midfielder is also equally comfortable at centre-back and has previously featured at right-back and as a playmaker.
“I think playing on Jamaican soil in the first round is important,” he said, eyes lighting up at the thought.
“The atmosphere will be cracking with the amount of tickets sold and everything that comes around that, but the main thing for us is to go out there and do everyone proud in Jamaica,” he ended.
Harwood-Bellis 'didn't quite believe' first senior England call-up
Taylor Harwood-Bellis revealed he was in a state of disbelief when he was told about his first call-up to the England senior team last week.
Harwood-Bellis, along with Newcastle's Lewis Hall, received their maiden Three Lions call-ups in Lee Carsley's final squad as interim head coach.
The Southampton defender has impressed under Russell Martin this season, featuring in all of their Premier League fixtures so far this season.
Harwood-Bellis has won more aerial duels (13) for the Saints in the top-flight this term, with only Jan Bednarek (888) completing more passes than the 22-year-old (684).
He is also someone well known to the interim boss from his time in charge of England's Under-21's side, with his 21 appearances more than any other player during Carsley's tenure in the current Three Lions squad.
"Lee Carsley rang me in the morning and said, 'you'll be with us, with the seniors'. I didn't quite believe it at first," he told a press conference.
"My partner was next to me and I phoned my dad, who was very proud. He loves when I play for England, even the younger age groups.
"One of the first people to message me was Aaron Ramsdale. I was happy to see his name as he's one of my mates at the club."
Unfortunately for Harwood-Bellis, Ramsdale has since pulled out of the squad with a finger injury and has been replaced by Burnley's James Trafford.
England travel to Athens to take on Group B2 leaders Greece on Thursday before returning to Wembley three days later as they square off against the Republic of Ireland.
With a number of first-team regulars out through injury, Harwood-Bellis has the opportunity to become the first Saints player to represent England since Kyle Walker-Peters did so back in 2022.
The defender understood the potential ramifications of performing well for the Three Lions during this international break, with Thomas Tuchel taking over in the new year.
"It will be a big motivation for all of the lads, knowing that there's a new manager coming in and wanting to keep your spot," he said.
"That's something that especially the younger lads will be pushing towards.
"It's going to be difficult because of the quality and experience in some of the lads that aren't here is massive.
"It'll be difficult, but it'll be something that I'll focus on week in and week out for Southampton and if I get minutes here."
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