The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.
Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.
Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.
When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.
Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.
Lucky winners: Manchester United
Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.
However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.
United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.
Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.
Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.
Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...
Unlucky losers: Manchester City
Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.
Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.
Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.
Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.
City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.
Unlucky losers: Bournemouth
If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.
Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.
Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.
Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.
Hubert Busby aims to build on positives after Reggae Girlz two-match triumph over South Africa
Jamaica’s Head coach, Hubert Busby, took heart from a successful two-match friendly series against South Africa, as he intends to use the victories as a foundation to sharpen his Reggae Girlz ahead of critical future competitions.
The Reggae Girlz, who dominated the first match with a 3-0 win last Friday, followed up with a hard-fought 3-2 victory in the second match on Monday at the Montego Bay Sports Complex in Catherine Hall.
Goals from Vyan Sampson (58th), Drew Spence (63rd), and substitute Kayla McKenna (76th) overturned Linda Motlhalo’s 19th-minute opener and rendered Amogeland Motau’s added-time strike inconsequential.
For Busby, the series wasn’t just about securing wins but about testing the squad in challenging scenarios.
This, as he pointed out that the quick turnaround between matches posed a physical challenge for both teams, but in the same breath, stressed the importance of resilience and adaptability, particularly after a lackluster first half in the second game.
“Yeah, I mean, look, the quick turnaround for both teams was always going to be a little bit tedious. You could see that a little bit in the first half—us trying to find our legs a bit. Credit to the medical and high-performance staff for getting the players ready,” Busby said post-match.
“These games are why we play them. We're going to be put in stressful situations; I wouldn't like it to be as stressful in the 90th minute, but that's football, you know, and credit to the team for how they responded and were worthy winners in the end,” he added.
Busby credited late adjustments for the team’s second-half resurgence after a lukewarm first half. They struggled to find rhythm and squandered a few half chances against a more confident-looking South African outfit that moved the ball well on this occasion.
“We recognized how they were building their play, so we spoke about it at halftime and showed the players what we wanted to do in terms of pressing higher. They responded really well, and those adjustments and then the impetus of players to carry out those instructions is really why we were able to turn around the game in the second half,” he explained.
Despite the team’s offensive prowess, Busby admitted disappointment at failing to maintain a clean sheet.
“Keeping a clean sheet is about the whole team and shows a good defensive performance. Overall, I still think we played well, but football is about moments. We have to manage those moments better because quality opposition at this level will punish you if we don’t. So it’s another chance for us to learn, grow, and take it into the next window,” he said.
The tactician also addressed the absence of veteran Tiffany Cameron, explaining that the decision allowed younger players to gain valuable experience as they aim to balance development and performance.
“Everybody here is ready. This camp was about evaluating players and seeing how they handle stressful situations. Tiffany is a veteran, so we know what she brings. But it’s also about embedding younger players into the group because it is us building a programme so that we can go to this 2027 World Cup and consecutive World Cups thereafter,” he stated.
With the February international window next in their line of sight, Busby is already planning for tougher tests to further prepare the team for the World Cup qualifiers.
“Plans are already in place to get an opposition. We’ve had conversations with different federations, and we’ll confirm that in the next four to five weeks. Another quality opposition that is going to test us in a stressful environment will make us better for World Cup qualifiers,” he ended.
Meanwhile, 19-year-old goalkeeper Liya Brooks, who earned her first two caps during the series, welcomed the opportunity.
“For me, it was kind of like a weight lifted off my shoulders. I knew the team had my back, and that made it easier. I'll say that I feel like my communication with my team is quite solid, and I feel like that's probably the most important thing.
“Moving forward, it’s about getting comfortable and learning my teammates individually. Also to make sure that I'm locked in and focused for every ball played back, and just making sure that I take time to breathe and live in the moment and also ensure that I'm confident in what I'm doing,” Brooks shared.
Conte eyeing Napoli changes for Coppa Italia tie against Lazio
Antonio Conte said that Napoli's Coppa Italia last 16 tie against Lazio would be used to give some of his fringe players the opportunity to shine for the Serie A leaders.
Napoli maintained their advantage at the summit of the standings with a 1-0 win over Torino on Sunday, with Scott McTominay on target for Gli Azzurri.
Conte's side are not participating in Europe this season after finishing 10th in Serie A last term, providing a slight advantage in terms of their Scudetto ambitions this year.
However, having fewer games has limited some of Napoli's squad to minor minutes from the bench, but Conte has used the competition so far to rest his key players.
Napoli have already featured in two rounds of the cup so far, brushing aside Serie B sides Modena and Palermo.
"This year in some respects it is penalising for many players because we only have the league, and we have the Coppa Italia," Conte told reporters.
"We played two games, the season opener with Modena, then with Palermo there was the possibility to give space to the players who had less time until then, and tomorrow we'll have another clear opportunity to test everyone's growth a bit."
Lazio have also started well in Serie A this term, sitting in fifth after 14 games of their season and only four points behind Conte's side in the division.
They are also unbeaten in their last three games against Napoli (W2 D1), and Conte was well aware of the task awaiting his players if they are to reach the quarter-finals.
"We always look at game-by-game, so the most important is Thursday's," he added.
"Having said that, I'll make choices because there are many players in the squad. We had a good start but it must not only be thanks to the 12-13 who took part.
"The credit must be shared with the entire squad, those who took over and those who played little or nothing but kept the intensity and competition high in training."
Conte also took the time to respond to Inter president, Giuseppe Marotta, who said that Napoli are favourites to win Serie A this season.
"The director can say what he wants," Conte said.
"But I think that at the end of the year if Inter were not to win the Scudetto he would not be very happy and would not consider the season a good season.
"They are focusing a lot on us and perhaps do not see who can really be the one who bothers them."
Ancelotti hoping Madrid face 'extraordinary' Botafogo in Intercontinental Cup final
Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti is hoping to meet Copa Libertadores winners Botafogo in the Intercontinental Cup final that takes place in December.
Botafogo beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 to win their first title in the famous competition, despite seeing Gregore sent off inside 30 seconds for a high tackle on Fausto Vera.
Luiz Henrique and Alex Telles put Botafogo two goals in front before Eduardo Vargas reduced the deficit, only for Junior Santos to seal the win in second-half injury time.
The Intercontinental Cup, which takes place in Qatar at the end of this month, will see the champions of all six confederations square off for a chance to play Madrid in the final.
Botafogo will play CONCACAF champions Pachuca, with the winner of that encounter taking on the African-Asian-Pacific Cup winners, Al Ahly.
Los Blancos are already in the tournament's showpiece on December 18 after beating Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final, claiming their 15th title.
"I watched the match (Libertadores final) live and really enjoyed it," Ancelotti told a press conference.
"It was a fantastic atmosphere. I was mesmerised. An incredible first minute of the game, with that incredible flying kick (that earned Gregore a red card).
"Then the team's (Botafogo's) attitude and commitment were extraordinary. They played a fantastic match down to 10 men."
Ancelotti was also happy for Botafogo midfielder Allan, who he managed during his time in charge of Napoli and Everton.
The Italian is hoping for a reunion with his former player, saying: "I'm happy for Allan who won the Libertadores with Botafogo, which is a historic team in Brazilian football.
"For them to be able to finally win the Libertadores for the first time. Yes, I was delighted!
"I know they still have a couple of games to fight for and reach the (Intercontinental Cup) final but yes, it would be great if it's them against us."
But up first for Ancelotti and Madrid is a trip to the San Mames Barria to face Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga.
Madrid recovered from their loss to Liverpool in the Champions League in midweek by beating Getafe 2-0 on Sunday, with Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham on target.
That result moved Los Blancos to within a point of rivals Barcelona at the summit of the standings, with the luxury of having a game in hand over their Clasico rivals.
Ancelotti, however, has seen his side suffer several injuries this season, with the likes of Eduardo Camavinga, Vinicius Junior and Eder Militao all missing on Sunday.
But Ancelotti was able to provide a positive injury update on midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, who has missed the last four games in all competitions with an ankle injury.
"To have Aurelien back is really important because of his role, so versatile defensively, can play as a centre-back or holding midfielder," added the Italian.
"Also, his height is key for us while defending set pieces, an important aspect of the game in which we have suffered since Eder Militao went down."
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