EPL

Premier League MD9: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

By Sports Desk October 28, 2024

The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.

United's decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.

Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.

Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition's history.

But what do the underlying metrics tell us? 

Unlucky losers: Fulham

Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more. 

And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto's last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche's team.

Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton's 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts' 10. That being said, perhaps Silva's side only have themselves to blame - they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.

 

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Evanilson's late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.

Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth's 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.

Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG - the fifth-highest total in the division across the games - while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.

He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley's opener. Indeed, Villa's 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.

Andoni Iraola's team certainly rode their luck.

Unlucky losers: Man Utd

Ten Hag's time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham's favour.

 

When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG - just less than United's 2.34.

United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend's matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro's close-range header.

The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag's tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.

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    The 34-year-old joins a struggling Genoa who currently sit in the bottom three in Serie A after managing just six points from their first nine games this term. 

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  • 'Thanks for everything boss' - Fernandes leads Ten Hag tributes 'Thanks for everything boss' - Fernandes leads Ten Hag tributes

    Bruno Fernandes led the tributes for departing Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag after his two-year stint at Old Trafford came to an end on Monday. 

    Ten Hag was relieved of his duties after Sunday's controversial 2-1 defeat to West Ham, leaving the Red Devils 14th in the Premier League table after nine games.

    The 54-year-old was only rewarded a new contract ahead of the new campaign after leading United to an FA Cup triumph over rivals Manchester City - his second trophy in as many seasons after winning the EFL Cup the previous year.

    Fernandes played a starring role in those successes, and was a key figure in Ten Hag's side. 

    The United captain played more games (120) in all competitions under Ten Hag than any other player, while only Marcus Rashford (42) scored more times during the Dutchman's tenure than Fernandes (29). 

    "Thanks for everything boss," Fernandes wrote on Instagram. "I appreciate the trust and the moments we share together. I wish you all the best in the future.

    "Even knowing the last period hasn’t been great from all of us I hope you fans can keep with you the good things the manager has done for our club!"

    Kobbie Mainoo also expressed his gratitude to his former boss, having been handed his senior United debut by Ten Hag in an EFL Cup tie against Charlton Athletic in January 2023.

    “Thank you for your trust and belief in me and for giving me the opportunity to play with my boyhood club," Mainoo posted to Instagram. “I wish you all the best for the future”.

    Alejandro Garnacho, another player given his first outing for the Red Devils by Ten Hag, also wished the Dutchman well in his next adventure.

    "Thank you for everything, boss," Garnacho said. "I will always be grateful to you for giving me the opportunity and the confidence to play for this club.

    "It hasn't gone as well as we wanted, but I will remember the good times we had together, and I wish you all the best in the future. Thank you very much Erik."

    Ten Hag managed 128 games in all competitions during his time at Old Trafford, winning 72 (D20 L36). 

    Only David Moyes (32.4%) lost a higher percentage of his Premier League games as United manager than Ten Hag (31.8%).

    United confirmed that Ruud van Nistelrooy will take charge as interim head coach during the club's search for a permanent replacement.

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    Napoli come into the game on the back of a 1-0 triumph over Lecce, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo's 73rd minute strike sealing a seventh win of the campaign. 

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    "We are also motivated to play this match against a very strong team that has won games comfortably."

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    "The fans must believe because we are a strong team and we are improving. We think we can fight for the Scudetto," he said.

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