NFL

Potent offenses square off in potential 49ers-Cowboys classic

By Sports Desk January 16, 2022

After the Patriots saw their playoff campaign emphatically come to an end on Saturday, the man who left New England to further his legacy begins his quest for an eighth ring on Sunday.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be expected to win in routine fashion in their Wild Card round matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, while the team they beat in last season's Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs, are anticipated to end Ben Roethlisberger's career with a routine victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Sandwiched between those two potential blowouts is the game of the weekend as two storied rivals, the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, contest a long overdue renewal of acquaintances in the postseason.

As Stats Perform's look at Sunday's action explains, both the Niners and the Cowboys possess the offense firepower to ensure the matchup lives up to its lofty expectations.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The defending champion Bucs are unsurprisingly the heavy favourites against an Eagles team that claimed nine wins in the regular season, none of which came against an opponent that made the postseason.

Not much stock will be put in the history of this encounter, even if it does make pleasant reading for any Eagles fans looking for reason for hope.

The Eagles and Buccaneers have split their 20 all-time meetings, with each team winning eight regular-season games and two in postseason play. Their only postseason matchup in Tampa was a 24-17 win by the Bucs in 1979, their first-ever playoff win.

All eyes at Raymond James Stadium will be on Bucs quarterback Tom Brady, who is set for another piece of history in his seemingly endless career.

Brady will be playing in his 19th postseason and in his 46th career playoff start, the most by any player in NFL history. At age 44, Brady will break his own record for the oldest quarterback to start a playoff game. Brady has more playoff wins since turning 36 years old (17) than any other QB has in his entire career.

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  • NFL: Bills end Chiefs' unbeaten run NFL: Bills end Chiefs' unbeaten run

    Josh Allen threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass and ran for a game-sealing touchdown late as the Buffalo Bills ended the Kansas City Chiefs' quest for a perfect season with Sunday's 30-21 win.

    James Cook added two rushing touchdowns and the Bills' defence intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice as the AFC East leaders handed the Chiefs their first defeat since Christmas Day of last season. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions had won 15 consecutive games, including a 27-24 victory over the Bills in Buffalo during the 2023 AFC Playoffs, and started this season 9-0.

    Allen completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards with one interception in the sixth straight win for Buffalo (9-2). His 12-yard touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel extended the Bills' lead to 23-14 with 12:51 left to play.

    The Chiefs answered with a 10-play, 70-yard drive capped by Mahomes' second touchdown pass of the day to Noah Gray, a 1-yard strike that got the Chiefs within two points with 7:53 remaining.

    Buffalo responded, however, by marching 70 yards in 12 plays on the ensuing possession, which Allen finished by scrambling out of the pocket on a 4th-and-2 play and eluding several defenders for a pivotal 26-yard touchdown with 2:17 to go.

    Mahomes threw for three touchdowns but was held to 196 yards on 23-of-33 passing. Xavier Worthy had a 10-yard touchdown catch early in the second quarter for Kansas City's first points and finished with 61 yards on four receptions.

     

    Steelers hold off Ravens to strengthen lead atop AFC North

    The Pittsburgh Steelers stymied Lamar Jackson and pulled out an 18-16 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the latest slugfest between these AFC North rivals.

    The win was the fifth straight for the first-place Steelers (8-2), giving them some breathing room atop the division as they moved 1 1/2 games in front of the second-place Ravens (7-4).

    Led by Jackson, Baltimore entered the game with the NFL’s top-ranked offence, but was held to season lows in points, total yards (329) and first downs (16).

    Pittsburgh kept the Ravens out of the end zone until 1:06 remaining in the fourth quarter, when Jackson hooked up with Zay Flowers for a 16-yard touchdown to bring Baltimore within 18-16. The Steelers then stopped the potential game-tying 2-point attempt as Jackson’s desperation pass fell incomplete.

    The two-time NFL MVP finished with 207 yards and an interception after entering Week 11 leading the league with a sensational 123.2 passer rating.

    Russell Wilson also struggled, throwing for just 205 yards with an interception. All of Pittsburgh’s points came via kicker Chris Boswell, who converted all six of his field goal attempts to match a franchise single-game record he already co-owned. 

     

    Lions demolish Jaguars to improve to 9-1

    The Detroit Lions obliterated the over-matched Jacksonville Jaguars, rolling to a 52-6 blowout win for the largest margin of victory in franchise history.

    The NFC-leading Lions, who won their eighth straight to improve to 9-1 for the first time since 1934, also set a franchise record in total yards with 645. The defence held the Jaguars to a mere 170 total yards for a difference of 475 yards – the third-largest gap in total offence in a single game since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. 

    Detroit quarterback Jared Goff bounced back after throwing five interceptions in last Sunday’s 26-23 comeback win over the Houston Texans, as he completed 24 of 29 passes for 412 passing yards – his most since 2019 – and four touchdowns for a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

    Amon-Ra St. Brown was on the receiving end of two of Goff’s touchdown throws and finished with a season-best 161 yards on 11 catches.

    Jameson Williams had a career high in receiving yards with 124 – with 64 coming on a touchdown grab in the third quarter – and Detroit’s dangerous running tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

    For the Jaguars, the 46-point drubbing marked the largest defeat in franchise history and further spread speculation about the job security of head coach Doug Pederson. Jacksonville will head into its Week 12 bye with a 2-9 record and four straight losses. 

     

    Blocked field goal secures Packers' comeback win over Bears

    Karl Brooks blocked Cairo Santos' 46-yard field goal attempt as time expired as the Green Bay Packers escaped with a 20-19 come-from-behind win over the Chicago Bears to further enhance their play-off hopes.

    Brooks' game-saving play came moments after the Packers took a 20-19 lead on quarterback Jordan Love's 1-yard touchdown run with 2:59 remaining, a score set up by Love's 60-yard completion to Christian Watson.

    The Bears stuffed running back Josh Jacobs on the ensuing 2-point conversion attempt, however, before three completions by rookie quarterback Caleb Williams put them in range for Santos' foiled field goal try.

    Love threw a touchdown pass to Jayden Reed earlier in the game and finished with 261 yards and an interception while completing 13 of 17 attempts. Jacobs rushed for 76 yards and had a 7-yard touchdown run that put Green Bay (7-3) up 14-13 with 6:34 left in the third quarter.

    The Bears went back ahead on D'Andre Swift's 39-yard touchdown run in the final minute of the third quarter, though Williams' pass on the 2-point try fell incomplete to keep the score 19-14.

    Chicago (4-6) was dealt a fourth straight loss - and 11th in a row to long-time rival Green Bay - despite Williams recording 231 passing yards and 70 rushing yards in a turnover-free performance for the 2024 No. 1 overall pick.

    Watson racked up a career-high 150 yards on just four catches in the Packers' first game since a Week 9 home defeat to NFC North-leading Detroit.

     

    Seahawks stun 49ers on Smith's late touchdown run

    Geno Smith's go-ahead 13-yard touchdown run with 12 seconds remaining further tightened the race in the NFC West as the Seattle Seahawks came away with an important 20-17 road win over the San Francisco 49ers.

    Smith's late heroics lifted Seattle (5-5) to just its second victory in its last seven games and created a three-way tie for second place in the division between the Seahawks, 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, who posted a 28-22 win at New England on Sunday. All three teams trail the first-place Arizona Cardinals by one game.

    Seattle also received 110 yards on 10 catches from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a strong effort from a previously struggling defence that held the defending NFC champion 49ers to a season-low 277 total yards. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy managed just 159 yards on 21-of-28 passing with one touchdown and one interception.

    The 49ers still appeared on their way to a third straight win after taking a 17-13 lead on Purdy's 3-yard touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings with 9:33 left and then stopping the Seahawks on 4th-and-1 at the San Francisco 37-yard line on the following series.

    Seattle was able to get the ball back again with 2:38 left, however, and Smith engineered an 11-play, 80-yard drive the veteran quarterback capped with his go-ahead scramble.

    Smith finished 25 of 32 for 221 yards with one interception, while Kenneth Walker III had 54 rushing yards and gave the Seahawks a 13-10 edge with a 1-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter.

    Jennings led San Francisco, which played without star tight end George Kittle due to a hamstring injury, with 10 catches totalling 91 yards.

     

    Dobbins' touchdown run lifts Chargers to fourth straight win

    In another Week 11 game that went down to the wire, the Los Angeles Chargers outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals by a 34-27 score as J.K. Dobbins ripped off a tie-breaking 29-yard touchdown run with 18 seconds left.

    Dobbins' second touchdown of the night sparked Los Angeles (7-3) to a fourth consecutive win despite the Chargers blowing a 21-point third-quarter lead. Cincinnati (4-7) rallied behind three Joe Burrow touchdown passes, including a pair to Ja'Marr Chase, to erase a 21-6 deficit.

    Burrow finished with 356 yards on 28-of-50 passing as the Bengals' offence got a lift from the return of wide receiver Tee Higgins, who recorded 148 yards and a touchdown on nine catches after missing three games with an injured quadriceps.

    Chase added 75 yards on seven catches, and his 17-yard touchdown grab with 12:21 remaining knotted the score at 27-27. However, the Bengals' next two drives ended in missed field goals by Evan McPherson that contributed to their second straight loss. 

    The Chargers' defence also forced a late three-and-out before Justin Herbert brought Los Angeles into Cincinnati territory with 28 and 27-yard completions to Ladd McConkey. Dobbins then broke free up the middle before shaking off a defender and diving into the end zone for the go-ahead points.

    Herbert threw a 29-yard touchdown pass to Will Dissly and a 26-yard scoring strike to Quentin Johnson to help the Chargers build a 24-6 half-time lead. The standout quarterback recorded 297 yards despite completing just 17 of 36 attempts while adding a team-high 65 rushing yards.

    McConkey delivered his best game as a pro as the rookie accumulated 123 yards on six receptions.

  • WSL title race: Man City out to halt Bompastor's perfect Chelsea start WSL title race: Man City out to halt Bompastor's perfect Chelsea start

    This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

    Stamford Bridge will be the stage as Chelsea host Manchester City on Saturday in a heavyweight tussle that promises to give fans an early indication of where the title may be heading this season. 

    Sonia Bompastor has started her Chelsea tenure emphatically, and she could become the first manager to win each of their first seven games in the WSL. If she felt any pressure when stepping into Emma Hayes' shoes, she certainly is not showing it.

    Chelsea have been in hot form in front of goal this term, scoring 23 goals across their first six games, having played one less than Manchester City due to their clash with Manchester United – who are also unbeaten – being rescheduled for next week. 

    The Blues' confidence will be sky-high going into this crucial double-header against the Manchester clubs, having maintained their unbeaten record across all competitions under Bompastor by overcoming Celtic in the Women's Champions League on Wednesday.

    Chelsea also have a strong record in this fixture. They have won four of their last five home games against City in the WSL, though they did lose their most recent such game 1-0 back in February, so Gareth Taylor's visitors will think they have a chance.  

    Man City sit top of the table and will not want to relinquish their advantage at the summit, and while last year's away victory over Chelsea was rare, they are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with the Blues, with two wins. 

    Overall, only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over them in the competition than City's seven, and another would represent a real statement of their title intent.

    Goals win Games… and Titles

    With the last title race coming down to goal difference in the final game of the season, City are clearly haunted by their inability to get across the line. Taylor and his players are determined not to see a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.

    The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: "You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.

    "Of course, we will use that frustration, disappointment, to really use it as energy for this season."

    Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but this still represents a marginal underperformance of their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).

    However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

    City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.67% (30/72) to 37.04% (10/27). 

     

    So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

    City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.

    With 23 goals, Chelsea have greatly overperformed their 13.76 xG, with that +9.24 overperformance by far the biggest in the competition. The Blues have been incredibly efficient, having the most shots on target (48) in the competition – one more than Man City (47) despite having 15 fewer shots overall. 

    The Blues' big-chance conversion rate of 60.87% is also the best in the WSL (14/23), as is their shot conversion rate (20.91%). By contrast, City's 12.8% shot conversion rate ranks fourth.

    Chelsea may have relied on Lauren James, Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby to provide the goals in previous seasons, but they have become a very different proposition under Bompastor. They have had 13 different goalscorers in the WSL this season, while City have only had six, ranking fourth, also behind Tottenham (eight) and Arsenal (seven).

    Shaw's Golden Touch 

    While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

    She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

    Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

    Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

    Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

     

    City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

    Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

    However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.

    Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.

    New Boss, New Look

    It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

    The French coach has made a couple of key tweaks to Hayes' setup. Guro Reiten has been one major beneficiary, operating predominantly from a left-wing role (where she has played 68% of her minutes) but also being fielded centrally on occasion. 

     

    Reiten is Chelsea's leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
     
    Chelsea's young talent has also come to the fore under their new boss. Aggie Beever-Jones is having a big impact despite only making two WSL starts, netting three times.

    Only Reiten has had more shots than Beever-Jones' 14, while no Chelsea player has hit the target as many times as she has (nine). Beever-Jones has had a knack for being in the right place at the right time, converting two of her four big chances and averaging a goal every 83 minutes.
     
    Another player to find a new lease of life under Bompastor is Rytting Kaneryd, who leads all Chelsea players for goal contributions (five). The Sweden international also leads all of her team-mates for involvements in open-play shot-ending sequences, with 33.
     
    Sjoeke Nusken has also been particularly influential on both sides of the ball, creating 11 chances in open play while also attempting (20) and winning (13) more tackles than any of her team-mates.

     

    Timing is Everything

    One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

    Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

    So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

    After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

     

    The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

    City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square. 

  • Australia 0-0 Saudi Arabia: Visitors denied last-gasp winner on Renard's return Australia 0-0 Saudi Arabia: Visitors denied last-gasp winner on Renard's return

    Saudi Arabia had a stoppage-time goal ruled out as Herve Renard's first game since returning as Saudi Arabia head coach ended in a 0-0 draw against Australia in World Cup qualifying.

    Sultan Al-Ghannam fired through a sea of bodies in the 94th minute of Thursday's Group C contest at AAMI Park, but the celebrations were cut short due to an offside infringement.

    Referee Ali Saeed Al Naqbi had earlier irked the home side by awarding a 12th-minute penalty for an Ahmed Al-Kassar challenge on Mitch Duke, which was then overturned.

    Replays showed the incident happened just outside the box, but Australia felt the Saudi keeper should have been sent off and not issued just a yellow card.

    Joe Gauci pulled off a fine double save later in the first half, albeit the offside flag later went up, but it was Australia who did more to win the game prior to the late drama.

    Brandon Borrello was played clean through on goal and opted to square to Riley McGree, who was unable to help the ball past covering defender Saud Abdulhamid in front of goal.

    Data Debrief: Another blank for both sides

    Australia entered this game without a goal against Saudi Arabia in 2,716 days - a run that will extend for a little while longer after this latest blank.

    The Socceroos have failed to score in three of their five third-round qualifying games, while Saudi Arabia have gone three in a row without netting.

    Tony Popovic's side will justifiably argue they did more to win the game, though, finishing with an expected goals value (xG) of 1.31 to Saudi Arabia's 0.05, but the teams remain locked on points in Group C.

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