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• Pennel rages against the Opta machine

  Kansas City Chiefs tackle Mike Pennel is out to prove the Opta supercomputer wrong after it estimated the team's chances of a Super Bowl three-peat at just 11.6%.

  The Chiefs are looking to make history in the 2024 campaign, which they open on Thursday with a mouthwatering tussle with the Baltimore Ravens, who they beat in last season's AFC Championship game.

  Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid and company are out to make the Chiefs the first franchise in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.

  Eight teams have previously won back-to-back Super Bowls, only to fail to make the showpiece game in the subsequent season, most recently the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005.

  Ahead of the new campaign, the Opta supercomputer's predictive model, which takes into account a team's quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs expected) performance, rated Kansas City's chances of winning Super Bowl LIX at 11.6%.

  They are more favoured than AFC rivals Baltimore (10.8%), but the San Francisco 49ers – who the Chiefs beat at Super Bowl LVIII and Super Bowl LIV – are favourites with a 23.9% likelihood of winning it all.

  Pennel is desperate to prove the model wrong, telling Stats Perform: "Give me the opportunity to fight against the machines! I don't think we were favoured in any playoff game this year. You know what I mean? 

  "I'm pretty sure they're doing it off numbers, but we played them twice in the Super Bowl. We beat them twice. I guess we'll just have to get to it. 

  "I think we may see them again. But the NFC, they've got some tough teams out there right now. They got some teams that are ascending, Green Bay was looking good and are another dark horse. 

  "We'll see what Dallas is doing, how their contract situation works out. The Eagles look very, very, very solid. So we'll see how it shakes out. Remember, you've got to remain healthy to make it to the game. That's out of both teams' hands. 

  "We'll see what happens, but 23% to 11%? I can't agree with that. I would flip-flop that, but maybe it's calculating in the three-peat. Maybe that's what it is."

  The Chiefs have made six consecutive AFC Championship games since Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018, winning four of those and going on to claim three Super Bowl rings.

  Asked where their main competition might come from in the AFC, Pennel highlighted the Houston Texans – in their second year with C.J. Stroud leading the offense – as a major threat.

  "I love the direction that Houston is going in. They're going to be formidable in the AFC. Cleveland with a healthy Deshaun Watson, we're interested to see how that looks," he said.

  "Even in our division, you know, the Chargers with Jim Harbaugh, they've got a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. We know he'll be running the ball, but we'll see how that shakes out. 

  "The AFC is just getting better, man. There'll be a couple dark horses in there, but those are the two or three that I really think are going to take a leap and be competitive."

• Chase back in practice ahead of Bengals NFL opener

  Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase participated in practice after a hold-in ahead of their season opener against the New England Patriots.

  Chase returned for the Bengals' first official practice of game week, having missed their training camp and sparingly worked out during team practices as he tries to work on a contract negotiation.

  He has two years remaining on his current deal but has hopes of becoming one of the highest-paid receivers in the league.

  Chase was only listed as a limited participant in his first practice, working with fellow receiver Tee Higgins.

  However, his status for week one still remains a doubt, with Cincinnati unsure if they will be able to call upon him for their opener against the Patriots.

  Quarterback Joe Burrow said the Bengals would be ready either way and praised Chase's attitude towards the team.

  "We'll see if that ends up happening but whatever happens, we'll be prepared for it," Burrow said.

  "He looks as fast and strong like he always does.

  "He's always been a team-first, win-first kind of guy. That's the kind of guy Ja'Marr is, and you want to reward those guys."

• Pennel expects Rodgers 'back with a vengeance', cannot split Jets QB from Mahomes

  Mike Pennel expects Aaron Rodgers to be "back with a vengeance" this season but struggles to split the 40-year-old from Patrick Mahomes, having played with both quarterbacks. 

  Rodgers joined the New York Jets from the Green Bay Packers in a blockbuster trade last year, only to rupture his Achilles in Week 1 and miss the remainder of the 2023 season.

  With Rodgers now fully fit, the Jets are expected to be a major force in the AFC when the 2024 campaign gets under way this week, as they look to halt a miserable run of eight losing seasons in a row.

  Kansas City Chiefs tackle Pennel spent three years alongside Rodgers in Green Bay, playing 37 games through the 2014, 2015 and 2016 seasons.

  Asked if he feels Rodgers has something to prove this year, he told Stats Perform: "Absolutely. I think that's why Aaron still does it. He's a highly competitive person as well. 

  "He wanted to succeed and with how the Jets were set up last year, it was very, very, very unfortunate how the season began and turned out because they were going to be a formidable team in the AFC. 

  "I know he's going to come back with a vengeance and he's prepared himself to do so. He has a lot in the tank. 

  "He learned from [former Packers and Jets quarterback] Brett Favre. So we've at least got about five more years of Rodgers, right?"

  Pennel has plenty of experience of playing with generational QB talents, having also teamed up with three-time Super Bowl winner Mahomes through two separate spells in Kansas City, the first spanning the 2019 and 2020 seasons before he returned to the team last October.

  Rodgers has thrown for 59,055 yards and 475 touchdowns in 231 games through his 19 years in the NFL.

  Mahomes, meanwhile, has already accumulated 28,424 yards and 219 touchdown passes through seven years with the Chiefs, and just six as their starter.

  Mahomes' 2023 figures of 4,183 passing yards and 27 touchdown throws were his second-worst since becoming the Chiefs' starter in 2018, after the 2019 campaign (4,031 yards, 26 touchdown throws), yet he still came up trumps when it mattered to lead the team to Super Bowl LVIII glory.

  Pennel believes Mahomes' mobility sets him out from all other quarterbacks, but he struggles to split him from Rodgers, who he sees as having a huge influence on others to play the position.

  "I think Aaron Rogers, he has crazy arm talent, you know, he was the innovator of the no-look pass and coming out of the gap on scramble and things like that," he said.

  "Pat's just a killer, man. I'm telling you about his mobility, but gosh, I mean, I feel like he's like the Ricky Bobby of the NFL!

  "He's got the first or his last, you know what I mean? He has a different switch."