NFL

Pennel rages against the Opta machine

By Sports Desk September 05, 2024

Kansas City Chiefs tackle Mike Pennel is out to prove the Opta supercomputer wrong after it estimated the team's chances of a Super Bowl three-peat at just 11.6%.

The Chiefs are looking to make history in the 2024 campaign, which they open on Thursday with a mouthwatering tussle with the Baltimore Ravens, who they beat in last season's AFC Championship game.

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid and company are out to make the Chiefs the first franchise in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.

Eight teams have previously won back-to-back Super Bowls, only to fail to make the showpiece game in the subsequent season, most recently the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005.

Ahead of the new campaign, the Opta supercomputer's predictive model, which takes into account a team's quarterback and EVE (efficiency vs expected) performance, rated Kansas City's chances of winning Super Bowl LIX at 11.6%.

They are more favoured than AFC rivals Baltimore (10.8%), but the San Francisco 49ers – who the Chiefs beat at Super Bowl LVIII and Super Bowl LIV – are favourites with a 23.9% likelihood of winning it all.

Pennel is desperate to prove the model wrong, telling Stats Perform: "Give me the opportunity to fight against the machines! I don't think we were favoured in any playoff game this year. You know what I mean? 

"I'm pretty sure they're doing it off numbers, but we played them twice in the Super Bowl. We beat them twice. I guess we'll just have to get to it. 

"I think we may see them again. But the NFC, they've got some tough teams out there right now. They got some teams that are ascending, Green Bay was looking good and are another dark horse. 

"We'll see what Dallas is doing, how their contract situation works out. The Eagles look very, very, very solid. So we'll see how it shakes out. Remember, you've got to remain healthy to make it to the game. That's out of both teams' hands. 

"We'll see what happens, but 23% to 11%? I can't agree with that. I would flip-flop that, but maybe it's calculating in the three-peat. Maybe that's what it is."

The Chiefs have made six consecutive AFC Championship games since Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018, winning four of those and going on to claim three Super Bowl rings.

Asked where their main competition might come from in the AFC, Pennel highlighted the Houston Texans – in their second year with C.J. Stroud leading the offense – as a major threat.

"I love the direction that Houston is going in. They're going to be formidable in the AFC. Cleveland with a healthy Deshaun Watson, we're interested to see how that looks," he said.

"Even in our division, you know, the Chargers with Jim Harbaugh, they've got a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert. We know he'll be running the ball, but we'll see how that shakes out. 

"The AFC is just getting better, man. There'll be a couple dark horses in there, but those are the two or three that I really think are going to take a leap and be competitive."

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  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

    Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.

    The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.

    The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.

    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

    Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.

    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

    "Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.

    "It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much. 

    "He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."

    Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.

    Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.

    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

    "That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."

    Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.

    They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).

    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

    "You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."

  • 'Enigma' Haaland offers too much threat to be left out, says Mills 'Enigma' Haaland offers too much threat to be left out, says Mills

    Former Manchester City defender Danny Mills believes Erling Haaland is an "enigma", which is why it is so hard to leave him out of the side.

    Haaland has been a revelation since joining City in July 2023, and he has won the Premier League Golden Boot in both seasons so far, while also scooping up the Premier League Player of the Year award in his debut campaign.

    He has scored 105 goals in 114 appearances in all competitions for City, netting 16 times this term already.

    Haaland is averaging 1.09 goals per game in the Premier League this season, after making a record-breaking start to the campaign in which he scored 10 times in the opening six matches.

    Mills, who played for City between 2004 and 2009, thinks the 24-year-old's high-scoring record comes down to the efficient way he approaches matches.

    "Erling Haaland is a bit of an enigma," Mills told Stats Perform. "He's not your usual centre forward.

    "We expect our centre forwards to either drop deep, be a bit of a playmaker and create chances, or put on a high press, work the channels, and have lots of touches, closing people down.

    "Haaland stands in the middle of the pitch, makes the runs when he needs to, is very efficient, and puts the ball in the back of the net more often than not. He gets himself in good positions.

    "We can talk about him missing big chances, but he's also scored an awful lot of goals. That's the thing — a centre forward will always say you're better off being in the position and missing the chance than not being in the position because the goals will come. Everybody misses chances."

    Haaland also set the record for most Premier League goals in a single season in 2022-23, with 36, and he once again sits top of the goalscoring charts this term, though he has seen his goals dry up somewhat in recent weeks after his lightning-quick start.

    The Norwegian netted his 12th Premier League goal of the campaign in City's 2-1 loss to Brighton before the international break, ending a run of three games in all competitions without a goal.

    Nobody has had more shots than Haaland in the English top-flight this season (55), while only Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins (11) has missed more big chances than him (10).

    Mills suggested that Haaland is held to a higher standard than other forwards in the competition, but says even when he is not scoring, he offers too much to be left out of the starting line-up.

    "When we talk about patchy form for Erling Haaland, patchy form for him is still way better than most other players' form. It's better than 95% of Premier League strikers," Mills added.

     

    "That's why he gets criticised for missing big chances, because we expect him to score every single time. But he's just different.

    "I think it's very, very difficult to leave him out because he offers so much. He's so big, strong, powerful, and scores all types of weird and interesting goals at times.

    "He occupies three or four defenders because they’re all worried about his pace in behind, his aerial ability, or what he's doing. Leaving him out would be a big, big call.

    "It's not like he's going through a drought. An Erling Haaland drought is that he hasn't scored for two games. There are centre forwards all over the world who would love that to be their record, not their drought.

    "So, I think we need to have some perspective. Yes, he might miss one or two chances, but he's a massive threat and a fantastic goalscorer."

  • Mills: Man City will benefit sooner from resolving Guardiola contract Mills: Man City will benefit sooner from resolving Guardiola contract

    Danny Mills believes Manchester City will benefit from resolving Pep Guardiola's uncertain future at the club sooner rather than later.

    Guardiola is in the final year of his contract with City and had dropped hints towards the end of last season that this could be his last on the blue side of Manchester.

    However, recent reports suggest he could be signing a one-year extension to keep him at the Etihad for a 10th year.

    The Spaniard joined the club in 2016 and has won 18 trophies with the club, including six Premier Leagues, winning the last four in a row, a Champions League, two FA Cups, four EFL Cups, a UEFA Super Cup, and a Club World Cup.

    Mills, who played for City between 2006 and 2009, says it will be better for everyone at the club when a decision over his future has been made.

    "It's very, very difficult to know what Pep is going to do. He's very much a man inside his own head," Mills told Stats Perform.

    "I don't think he gives too much away about his thought process. We know he's incredibly intense. His dedication is unrivalled at times.

    "He's constantly thinking about football, thinking about Manchester City. That's what he does, and he's incredibly good at it. Only he will know what the next stage of the process is."

    "We saw before at Barcelona that he needed a break after three or four seasons because he was burned out. He needed a break after three seasons at Bayern. He's been at Manchester City longer than at any other club.

    "He's been very, very successful in that time, remodelled the team several times, changed the style of play, dealt with players coming in and leaving, and handled all types of pressure. He's won everything there is to win in that time.

    "I think he's earned the right to decide what he wants to do. If he stays, recruitment might look a little different compared to if he decides to leave. A new manager might want a slightly different style of player.

    "Look at what Liverpool did with Arne Slot. The players Klopp wanted will be similar, but a new manager always wants to put their own slant on things.

    "The conversations now about recruitment for January or next summer will be slightly different if Pep is involved compared to if a new manager is coming in. Some players might look at Pep and think, 'I want to play under him because we know each other, and he knows how I play'.

    "A new manager with a different style might not give those players the same security. So, they'll start wondering, 'If Pep goes, where does my future lie at the club?' It just creates a bit of uncertainty. The sooner that's resolved, the better for Manchester City."

    Guardiola has won 353 of his 490 games in charge of City in all competitions (D70 L63), boasting a 72.04% win rate. In that time, they have scored 1,200 goals.

    The 53-year-old has seen a number of records broken while at the helm, including the record points total in a Premier League season when they won the title with 100 points in 2017-18.

    Having overseen so much success in his first eight seasons, Mills admitted it would be hard to find someone to fill the gap he will leave behind.

    "I think it's really difficult to find someone to replace Pep. It's a bit like replacing Alex Ferguson. It's very, very difficult," he added. "Or replacing Arsene Wenger.

    "Okay, Wenger maybe stayed a little too long, but when he was in his prime period, there wasn't anyone who could replace him.

    "Pep reinvented football in the Premier League, changed the way Manchester City play, and influenced how a lot of teams play."

    "Who do you bring in to take that to the next level? There will be young coaches who get an opportunity. Obviously, Arteta is a big rival at the moment, but he knows the football club, so his name will be in the conversation.

     

    "Someone like Ruben Amorim might have been mentioned, but he's now crossed to the red side of Manchester, so that rules him out.

    "Manchester City used to have the people in place to ensure the succession plan was lined up. Some of those people are now moving on, which creates some uncertainty. City's planning has always been exceptional from top to bottom, from the sporting director to academy coaches, but that's been disrupted recently.

    "You also throw in the 115 charges against the club. Who knows what's going to happen with that? I think a lot of the charges are spurious. Look at Forest and Everton – they got penalised for two charges, and City have 115. Some will be trivial, like not dating a piece of paper properly or signing in the wrong place.

    "Still, we have to wait for the outcome of that. It doesn't affect the players now, but it could impact the team and the club going forward."

    Even if Guardiola stays, there will come a time when he no longer sits in the City dugout, but Mills believes he will have a lasting legacy due to his influence over the English top-flight.

    "I think Pep's legacy is incredible. What's he won at the moment? Four Premier Leagues in a row, six out of seven, which is phenomenal. Pep has only ever finished outside the top two once," Mills said.

    "I think that was his first season at Manchester City. He's only finished outside the top two once in his entire career. That's unbelievable. It's a ridiculous record. He's always finished first or second, and that's part of his legacy.

    "The way he changed the style of play is another key part. A lot of people doubted whether it was possible to play that way in the Premier League, playing out from the back.

    "Look at what the goalkeeper position has become. Look at teams taking goal kicks and playing one-twos in their own six-yard box. That's all down to Pep. That's another part of his legacy.

    "So, I think there are two parts to it. His winning legacy is phenomenal, and his success rate is unrivalled at the moment. He has to be up there with the best of all time. But also, the style of play and the way he moulded what many thought was impossible and now everybody has copied it.

    "One of the biggest forms of admiration is imitation, and everybody has tried to copy Manchester City. They haven't quite managed it, certainly, not in terms of quality, but in an ideal world, everyone would want to play winning football in that style."

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