How does Formula One go about following up the epic 2021 season?
Well, until that stunning campaign stole the show, this year was long seen as the one to look forward to with the introduction of new regulations to encourage competitive racing right down the grid.
Lewis Hamilton might have expected a genuine challenge in 2022; instead, in the form of Max Verstappen, it arrived 12 months early.
Excitement for the coming campaign is therefore at an all-time high, with pre-season testing adding to the theory fans should expect the unexpected.
Forecasting the year ahead is tricky, but Stats Perform seeks to identify the key narratives to follow this season ahead of Sunday's 2022 opener in Bahrain.
Max vs Lewis again
For now at least, Verstappen and Hamilton will expect to be the title frontrunners, which should mean another classic campaign.
Verstappen had never even led the standings until winning last year's Monaco Grand Prix, the first of five consecutive Red Bull wins – including four for the Dutchman.
That sequence ended at Silverstone, where contact with Hamilton sent Verstappen into the wall and set the tone for the rest of a frantic season, in which the pair repeatedly went at one another, crashing at Monza.
A titanic back-and-forth deserved a better ending than to be decided by a contentious call from race director Michael Masi in Abu Dhabi.
Now, defending champion Verstappen can attempt to prove he is better than Hamilton regardless of that decision, while the Mercedes man seeks to show his class once again as he pursues a record eighth title.
The midfield challenge
The game-changing 2022 regulations sought to enforce "closer racing", meaning both Verstappen and Hamilton could come under threat rather than simply blowing away the competition.
Early signs are encouraging on that front, with the two title rivals name-checking Ferrari's superb pre-season showing in the past week.
A resurgent Scuderia represent an obvious danger to those two, but so too do McLaren, Ferrari's midfield neighbours in recent seasons.
Lando Norris had four podiums last season before tailing off to finish sixth in the drivers' championship – still two places ahead of team-mate Daniel Ricciardo, who endured a tough first year with the team despite a famous win at Monza.
Having been aided by changes to the car for 2022, it is up to Ferrari and McLaren to close the gap considerably to Red Bull and Mercedes.
George a genuine threat?
Of course, Verstappen and Hamilton might typically expect their biggest challenges to come from those in the same cars.
However, Sergio Perez played the role of supporting Red Bull team-mate brilliantly in some key moments last year, while Valtteri Bottas continued to do his own thing without worrying Hamilton.
How a change in the Mercedes garage alters things remains to be seen. Bottas has been replaced by George Russell, who will hope to quickly make his mark.
Russell deputised for Hamilton for a single race the year before last and impressed, so it will be interesting to see if he now intends to push his legendary colleague all the way or will initially settle instead for helping his title bid.
Impact of refereeing reform
It is not only the cars that have had a makeover this year, with the officiating structure reorganised in the aftermath of the criticism aimed at Masi.
He is out as race director, with two men, Niels Wittich and Eduardo Freitas, taking his place, while other changes include the introduction of a "virtual race control room" to "assist the race director in the decision-making process".
Whether these changes suitably appease the team principals, who grew increasingly furious with each controversy last year, remains to be seen.
All parties would agree they would rather see the championship decided on the track – but it is not always as straightforward as that.
Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.
On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.
It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.
Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.
But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.
However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).
The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.
Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.
Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.
Lucky winners: Southampton
Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.
Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.
While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.
It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.
Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace
Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.
Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.
They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.
With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.
There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.
Lucky winners: Chelsea
Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.
Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.
United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.
United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).
Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.
Hamilton could 'take a holiday' after Sao Paulo disappointment
Lewis Hamilton says he "could happily go and take a holiday" instead of finishing the season after a dismal showing at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
He made early exits in both qualifying sessions and started the race at Interlagos from 15th on the grid.
However, unlike Max Verstappen, who impressively won the race having started in 17th, the Brit struggled to mount much of a fight, coming away from the weekend with just one point after finishing in 10th.
His performance was made to look worse as team-mate George Russell had been battling for the lead but narrowly missed out on a podium place as he finished fourth.
Hamilton only has three races left with Mercedes before his move to Ferrari next season, bringing an end to their 12-year partnership.
But he was left frustrated in Brazil, expressing his disappointment with the car.
"We were just slow," Hamilton told Sky Sports F1. "The car was really, really tough. I do really want to say still a big thank you to the guys in the garage. They turned up super early this morning and still did a great job throughout the weekend.
"The team could have won also, so at least one car was behaving a lot better.
"The car is like a plank of wood. It's like no suspension.
"It's bouncing on the tyres everywhere, and you can't get on the power anywhere. It's just the worst ride, I think the worst ride that we've definitely ever had, particularly through corners. It's just so stiff.
"But hopefully we won't have any more bumpy tracks. I think the last three aren't so bumpy. But yeah, I could happily go and take a holiday."
Norris claims Verstappen 'got lucky' in Brazil as title hopes fade
Lando Norris said Max Verstappen benefitted from a rule "no one agrees with" as he won a dramatic Sao Paulo Grand Prix to leave the McLaren's title hopes hanging by a thread.
Verstappen surged to a terrific victory from 17th on the grid in Brazil, with Norris faltering after starting on pole.
Norris and Mercedes' George Russell – who were vying for the lead – both pitted on lap 29, but that strategy backfired as the red flag was shown following a crash involving Franco Colapinto.
With the race suspended, Verstappen was also able to change tires for the restart, negating Norris' advantage from pitting as the world champion raced to a commanding victory.
Norris had cut Verstappen's drivers' championship lead to 44 points by winning Saturday's sprint race but now sits 62 points adrift with just three races of the season remaining.
The Brit refused to hit out at McLaren's strategy after the race, though, putting his struggles down to bad luck.
"I have faith in the team in what they are saying and they have trust in me," he told Sky Sports F1.
"It was just unlucky. I don't care about the hindsight side of things, that's luck for them, nothing more.
"They got lucky on a rule that no one agrees with. Probably they agreed with it today but every driver has disagreed with it in the past.
"Today it benefitted them, it could have benefitted us if we just stayed out, but that's a stupid thing to think of.
"Just a bit unlucky today, nothing more. Of course, disappointing. Max drove well. He got a bit lucky but that's life."
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