How does Formula One go about following up the epic 2021 season?
Well, until that stunning campaign stole the show, this year was long seen as the one to look forward to with the introduction of new regulations to encourage competitive racing right down the grid.
Lewis Hamilton might have expected a genuine challenge in 2022; instead, in the form of Max Verstappen, it arrived 12 months early.
Excitement for the coming campaign is therefore at an all-time high, with pre-season testing adding to the theory fans should expect the unexpected.
Forecasting the year ahead is tricky, but Stats Perform seeks to identify the key narratives to follow this season ahead of Sunday's 2022 opener in Bahrain.
Max vs Lewis again
For now at least, Verstappen and Hamilton will expect to be the title frontrunners, which should mean another classic campaign.
Verstappen had never even led the standings until winning last year's Monaco Grand Prix, the first of five consecutive Red Bull wins – including four for the Dutchman.
That sequence ended at Silverstone, where contact with Hamilton sent Verstappen into the wall and set the tone for the rest of a frantic season, in which the pair repeatedly went at one another, crashing at Monza.
A titanic back-and-forth deserved a better ending than to be decided by a contentious call from race director Michael Masi in Abu Dhabi.
Now, defending champion Verstappen can attempt to prove he is better than Hamilton regardless of that decision, while the Mercedes man seeks to show his class once again as he pursues a record eighth title.
The midfield challenge
The game-changing 2022 regulations sought to enforce "closer racing", meaning both Verstappen and Hamilton could come under threat rather than simply blowing away the competition.
Early signs are encouraging on that front, with the two title rivals name-checking Ferrari's superb pre-season showing in the past week.
A resurgent Scuderia represent an obvious danger to those two, but so too do McLaren, Ferrari's midfield neighbours in recent seasons.
Lando Norris had four podiums last season before tailing off to finish sixth in the drivers' championship – still two places ahead of team-mate Daniel Ricciardo, who endured a tough first year with the team despite a famous win at Monza.
Having been aided by changes to the car for 2022, it is up to Ferrari and McLaren to close the gap considerably to Red Bull and Mercedes.
George a genuine threat?
Of course, Verstappen and Hamilton might typically expect their biggest challenges to come from those in the same cars.
However, Sergio Perez played the role of supporting Red Bull team-mate brilliantly in some key moments last year, while Valtteri Bottas continued to do his own thing without worrying Hamilton.
How a change in the Mercedes garage alters things remains to be seen. Bottas has been replaced by George Russell, who will hope to quickly make his mark.
Russell deputised for Hamilton for a single race the year before last and impressed, so it will be interesting to see if he now intends to push his legendary colleague all the way or will initially settle instead for helping his title bid.
Impact of refereeing reform
It is not only the cars that have had a makeover this year, with the officiating structure reorganised in the aftermath of the criticism aimed at Masi.
He is out as race director, with two men, Niels Wittich and Eduardo Freitas, taking his place, while other changes include the introduction of a "virtual race control room" to "assist the race director in the decision-making process".
Whether these changes suitably appease the team principals, who grew increasingly furious with each controversy last year, remains to be seen.
All parties would agree they would rather see the championship decided on the track – but it is not always as straightforward as that.
Rosberg backs Hamilton and Leclerc battle after surprise Ferrari switch
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc riding for Ferrari will be "great to watch", according to Nico Rosberg, who expects a "tough battle" between two Formula One drivers on a similar level.
Mercedes and Hamilton will part ways after 12 seasons together as the seven-time world champion prepares to join Ferrari.
Leclerc got the nod ahead of current team-mate Carlos Sainz to remain with the Italian team, with the Ferrari driver ready to join forces with Hamilton in 2025.
"We're all looking forward to that dynamic," Rosberg, who partnered Hamilton at Mercedes from 2013 to 2016, told Sky Sports.
"Charles doesn't seem like someone who goes into conflict too much with his team-mate, so that will make it easier, maybe it won't be too extremely spicy."
Hamilton has failed to finish ahead of Mercedes team-mate George Russell in any of his first five 2024 grand prixs.
Yet Rosberg has no doubt over his quality, nor his soon-to-be partner Leclerc, who he ranks just behind Max Verstappen.
"Charles is probably the second-best qualifier out there after Max Verstappen, one could possibly say at the moment, so it will be a tough battle for both," Rosberg added.
"I think the level could be pretty similar, so it will be great to watch."
Ferrari's decision to move on from Sainz may come as somewhat of a surprise, given the team have featured on the podium at four of the five races this season.
Whereas Hamilton's switch comes after Mercedes failed to engineer a car capable of competing with the likes of Red Bull, though choosing Ferrari caught the eye.
"It came as a huge surprise," Rosberg said. "No one expected it. But If you look at the grand scheme of things, then why not?
"It's towards the end of his career. They are two legendary teams and I know Lewis has always been a big fan of Ferrari, so why not make that switch and have a different experience of driving in red once?
"At the moment, it seems in performance terms to be the right decision for him, which maybe he's made an amazing move like he did 12 years ago by moving from McLaren for Mercedes.
"McLaren was winning races and Mercedes was nowhere, and the moment he moved, McLaren went backwards and Mercedes started winning races. Maybe he can get the same timing done again."
Christian Horner denies Formula One is ‘boring’ with Max Verstappen’s dominance
Christian Horner has knocked back criticism that Max Verstappen’s stranglehold on Formula One is “boring” by describing his star driver’s unstoppable form as a “golden moment”.
Verstappen claimed his fourth win from the five rounds so far this season with a commanding drive at Sunday’s Chinese Grand Prix to establish a 25-point championship lead.
The Dutch driver has failed to triumph at only two of the last 23 races staged in the sport, and he is the overwhelming favourite to secure a fourth world crown in as many seasons.
Speaking prior to Sunday’s race, Lando Norris, who finished runner-up to Verstappen in Shanghai, admitted that seeing the “same driver win without a fight is boring”, and a “turn-off” for fans.
But addressing claims that Verstappen’s dominance is damaging the sport, Red Bull team principal Horner said: “You have to appreciate success. Max is a special talent and this is a golden moment for him.
“As we have seen with every single driver in the past, it doesn’t last forever. It is about enjoying the moment and being in the moment and there are no guarantees we can give him a car like this for the next five years.
“Max is just a metronome. The pace he showed last year, he has continued that through.
“And since the last Chinese Grand Prix in 2019, he has won 50 per cent of all the races. He has won 21 out of the last 23 races. He is in fantastic form, at one with the car and the team and enjoying his racing.”
Verstappen also won the first sprint round of the season in Shanghai.
The dash to the chequered flag took place before qualifying for Sunday’s main event in a rejig this year.
Verstappen, 26, has often criticised the format, and although he agreed the new schedule is better than in previous years, he urged F1 bosses not to increase the number of sprints – which is set at six this season.
“The sprint format was more straightforward that it has been but let’s not overdo it,” said the triple world champion.
“We are already doing 24 races in a season and six of these sprint events, too. I guess it sells better and the television audience numbers increase, but it also increases the pressure on the mechanics to ensure everything is tip-top.
“So, we have to deal with it, but let’s not now think that we need 12 of these (sprints) because it will take its toll on people in the sport.”
Toto Wolff hopeful Lewis Hamilton’s morale will not plummet after bad start
Mercedes boss Toto Wolff is confident Lewis Hamilton’s morale will not plummet despite his continued worst start to a Formula One season.
Hamilton fought back from his lowly 18th grid slot to finish ninth in Sunday’s Chinese Grand Prix.
But the British driver, in his final season with Mercedes before his blockbuster transfer to Ferrari, leaves Shanghai only ninth in the standings after failing to finish inside the top six at either of the opening five rounds.
Indeed, Sunday’s result marked the third time he has crossed the line in ninth this year. Hamilton also trails team-mate George Russell 5-0 in qualifying.
But Wolff said: “Lewis is a pro and he has behaved that way, trying to keep his morale up and the morale of the team up, even if the results have not come his way. I have no doubt this will last.”
Hamilton has now gone 50 races and 868 long days without a victory and he was exposed to yet another sobering afternoon in his uncompetitive Mercedes.
Following his worst qualifying result in seven years, Hamilton started on the quickest, but less-durable soft rubber, but just two laps into this 56-lap affair, his complaints began.
“I am making no ground on this tyre,” he said after dropping from 18th to 19th.
Hamilton made the first of his two pit-stops on lap nine and rejoined back in 19th, 53 seconds off Max Verstappen’s leading pace.
“That was the worst tyre, man,” said the despondent 39-year-old.
Hamilton was soon back on the intercom. “I can’t even catch him (Alpine’s Esteban Ocon), man,” he said. “This car is so slow.”
Hamilton’s fortunes improved on lap 21 when he stopped for a second time, with the virtual safety car (VSC) deployed after Valtteri Bottas broke down.
And as the marshals struggled to shift Bottas’ stricken Stake, the VSC was upgraded to a full safety car, promoting Hamilton up the order.
He would be 12th at the restart, but he was still bemused by his unruly machine.
“The car is just sliding around everywhere,” he said. “It just feels like something is broken. It is really bad.”
Daniel Ricciardo suffered floor damage after Lance Stroll thumped into the back of his RB, elevating Hamilton into 10th before he swatted Haas’ Nico Hulkenberg aside.
Hamilton was then up to eighth as Fernando Alonso made a maverick third stop for tyres. But the 42-year-old took advantage of his fresh rubber to blast back through the field, relegating Hamilton back a place with seven laps remaining.
The seven-time champion took the chequered flag nearly one minute behind Verstappen.
“This is the worst season so far, as I mentioned at the last race,” said Hamilton. “It definitely wasn’t better than expected because we expected to finish there today.
“I have never had so much understeer in my life. I thought I damaged my car because there was debris on the track at one point, but it was just the way I set the car up.
“We finished second in the sprint race yesterday and, with better decisions on setup today, we would have been where George finished. We have to keep fighting.”
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