Serie A returns on Saturday, with Milan looking to retain their title after a first Scudetto triumph in 11 years.
The Rossoneri have brought in Belgium duo Charles De Ketelaere and Divock Origi to bolster Stefano Pioli's squad as they prepare to face another challenge from rivals Inter.
Simone Inzaghi will have his own Belgium international striker Romelu Lukaku to call on again after he was brought back on loan from Chelsea.
How will those clubs fare, who is likely to be their closest challengers, and who will be fearing the drop from Italy's top flight?
Stats Perform AI has predicted the outcome of the campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and have thrown up some interesting results, with a heavy favourite for top spot.
INTER TO TAKE THEIR TITLE BACK WITH FAMILIAR FACE ON BOARD
In the end, there were just two points in it.
A fascinating battle between Milan and Inter last season saw Pioli's men edge the title with 86 points after a 3-0 win at Sassuolo on the final day.
Despite the impressive way Milan closed out that title, the data makes Inter 47.97 per cent favourites to regain it in 2022-23.
The return of Lukaku is likely to be a big reason for that, with the 29-year-old having scored 47 goals in 72 Serie A games prior to joining Chelsea last year, and he played a major part in Inter's Scudetto win in 2020-21.
Milan's chances are surprisingly not even second best, with the data suggesting there is a 16.43 per cent likelihood of them retaining their title, with Juventus judged to have a slightly better 17.93 per cent chance.
Napoli are deemed to have a 13.75 per cent chance, with no other team being considered to have any more than a two per cent chance, including Jose Mourinho's Roma at 1.99 per cent.
TOP FOUR FIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF THE SAME
There was very little drama in the race for the Champions League spots last season, with Napoli and Juventus well out of the title fight but clear of fifth place with multiple games to go.
Stats Perform AI expects the same four teams to take up those spots again, albeit in a different order, with Juve in second, Milan third and Napoli fourth.
The positive numbers for the Bianconeri are likely to be a result of Serbia striker Dusan Vlahovic having a full season to lead the line, along with big name additions of Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria.
Napoli could be the most at risk after losing several key players since the end of last season, including Kalidou Koulibaly, Lorenzo Insigne and Dries Mertens, but they are still given a 73.09 per cent chance of Champions League qualification.
In the chasing pack, Roma are given a 30.18 per cent chance of a top four spot and Stats Perform AI believes Mourinho's men are the likeliest team to finish in one of the two Europa League places, with no team given a greater chance than the Giallorossi's 19.58 per cent.
Atalanta have a 20.64 per cent chance of getting back into the top four, though are still deemed likely to improve on last season's eighth place as favourites for sixth and qualification for the Europa League (18.56 per cent).
That leaves Lazio with a 17.09 per cent chance of seventh and a Europa Conference League spot, though Fiorentina (11.10), Hellas Verona (8.45) and Sassuolo (8.34) are not counted out entirely.
CREMONESE UNLIKELY TO RISE TO THE TOP
It is not too much of a surprise to see the promoted teams are predicted to be facing a tough task to stay up.
Cremonese are the favourites for the drop at 63.41 per cent, with Lecce (47.10 per cent) also expected to head back to Serie B at the end of the campaign.
Second favourites for relegation, though, are last year's 17th place team Salernitana, who avoided relegation by a single point ahead of Cagliari. Davide Nicola's side are handed a 58.10 per cent chance of failing to escape this time.
Monza came up through the play-offs and have made a number of new signings, including former Inter players Andrea Ranocchia and Stefano Sensi, which could be why they are given just a 27.92 per cent chance of going back down, slightly ahead of Empoli at 25.17 per cent.
Only four teams are given a zero per cent chance of relegation, which unsurprisingly is last season's top four.
Edwards urges Luton Town to ignore scrutiny on relegation battle
Rob Edwards is keen for Luton Town to ignore the scrutiny surrounding them in the relegation battle as they prepare for another big game against Wolves.
The Hatters sit one point from safety in the relegation zone after back-to-back 5-1 defeats against Manchester City and Brentford.
While Nottingham Forest also lost last weekend, being beaten 2-0 by Everton, Burnley beat Sheffield United to move them two points behind Luton.
Asked how he is handling the pressure of the relegation battle with only four games left, Edwards said: “The stakes are high already, we all know what it means and it's really important to everyone that's in this at the moment, a number of clubs that are still fighting to try and avoid it and be in the league next season, it's so important.
“Everyone wants to try and stoke the fire I think. We've got a title race on at one end and obviously, there's a relegation battle we're involved in. It's exciting, it's good that we're in the fight, and we've got a chance to get out of it, but really, all I am concerned about right now is our performance tomorrow.”
Glasner challenges Crystal Palace to extend winning run
Oliver Glasner is hopeful that Crystal Palace can maintain their recent winning run when they travel to Fulham on Saturday.
After a run of five games without a victory, the Eagles have won each of their last three games, beating Liverpool, West Ham and Newcastle United.
Their 2-0 win over the Magpies on Wednesday also secured their Premier League safety for another season.
Glasner has given credit to his team’s attitude in turning around their recent run of form but does not want them to slow down despite reaching their goal.
He said: “The players give us confidence because they are listening. Every day we were sitting here and having a meeting and showing them videos and nobody was sleeping, so that gives us good feedback!
"Now we have 39 points and I think it shouldn't be our target to say ‘39 points, oh well done, staying in the Premier League’ because then I would say 'come on guys, go wherever you want and take vacations' – but no.
"We want to improve, we want to win games, and we have the next chance tomorrow at Fulham."
Columbus Crew v CF Montreal: Nancy proud of resilient Champions Cup performance
Wilfried Nancy was delighted with the spirit and grit his Columbus Crew team displayed as they sealed a 2-1 CONCACAF Champions Cup win over CF Monterrey.
The Crew are in a great position to progress to the Champions Cup final after their first-leg win in midweek.
Now, Nancy will turn his focus to a league clash with his former club CF Montreal, but he stressed his pride with his team for their performance against Monterrey.
“I'm really proud of the guys,” said Nancy.
“Because we did a really good game in terms of when we had the difficult moments, we were together. And when we had the ball, we tried to play our game and we had good opportunities also, and we were able to unbalance them.
“We try to convince [the squad] that when we play high-level sport, it's a game of mistakes.
The idea is no matter what happened, can we find a way to bounce back? So we work on that during the practice, but at the end of the day, you have to live this situation. And I think that we've worked upon in the past. So now they’ve been better and the chemistry is better. And they were able to sort it out.”
The Crew are the reigning MLS Cup champions, though they have drawn their last three league fixtures.
While Columbus sit fourth in the Eastern Conference, Montreal are three points back in 10th place.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Columbus Crew – Cucho Hernandez
Hernandez scored his 34th MLS goal (including playoffs) in the Crew’s draw on Saturday. Only the Philadelphia Union’s Daniel Gazdag (36) has more goals than Hernández since he made his MLS debut in July 2022.
CF Montreal – Ariel Lassiter
Lassiter put CF Montreal ahead against Orlando on Saturday with an 88th-minute goal, only to see the Lions equalize in stoppage time. It marked just the second time in club history that Montreal scored a go-ahead goal after the 75th minute but failed to win the match, also doing so against the Fire in 2017.
MATCH PREDICTION: COLUMBUS WIN
Montreal have lost 17 of their 25 away matches in all competitions (W5 D3) dating back to the start of last season, being outscored, 56-21, in those games.
Columbus are unbeaten in 17 straight regular-season home matches (W12 D5) following a pair of draws with D.C. United and the Portland Timbers. The only longer run in club history was a 22-match streak in 2008—09.
Columbus won both of their matches against Montreal last season after winning just two of the previous eight (D2 L4). Montreal (2-1 in August 2022) are one of two visiting teams to record a win at Lower.com Field since June 2022.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Columbus Crew – 56.4%
CF Montreal – 18.6%
Draw – 25%
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