Serie A returns on Saturday, with Milan looking to retain their title after a first Scudetto triumph in 11 years.
The Rossoneri have brought in Belgium duo Charles De Ketelaere and Divock Origi to bolster Stefano Pioli's squad as they prepare to face another challenge from rivals Inter.
Simone Inzaghi will have his own Belgium international striker Romelu Lukaku to call on again after he was brought back on loan from Chelsea.
How will those clubs fare, who is likely to be their closest challengers, and who will be fearing the drop from Italy's top flight?
Stats Perform AI has predicted the outcome of the campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and have thrown up some interesting results, with a heavy favourite for top spot.
INTER TO TAKE THEIR TITLE BACK WITH FAMILIAR FACE ON BOARD
In the end, there were just two points in it.
A fascinating battle between Milan and Inter last season saw Pioli's men edge the title with 86 points after a 3-0 win at Sassuolo on the final day.
Despite the impressive way Milan closed out that title, the data makes Inter 47.97 per cent favourites to regain it in 2022-23.
The return of Lukaku is likely to be a big reason for that, with the 29-year-old having scored 47 goals in 72 Serie A games prior to joining Chelsea last year, and he played a major part in Inter's Scudetto win in 2020-21.
Milan's chances are surprisingly not even second best, with the data suggesting there is a 16.43 per cent likelihood of them retaining their title, with Juventus judged to have a slightly better 17.93 per cent chance.
Napoli are deemed to have a 13.75 per cent chance, with no other team being considered to have any more than a two per cent chance, including Jose Mourinho's Roma at 1.99 per cent.
TOP FOUR FIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF THE SAME
There was very little drama in the race for the Champions League spots last season, with Napoli and Juventus well out of the title fight but clear of fifth place with multiple games to go.
Stats Perform AI expects the same four teams to take up those spots again, albeit in a different order, with Juve in second, Milan third and Napoli fourth.
The positive numbers for the Bianconeri are likely to be a result of Serbia striker Dusan Vlahovic having a full season to lead the line, along with big name additions of Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria.
Napoli could be the most at risk after losing several key players since the end of last season, including Kalidou Koulibaly, Lorenzo Insigne and Dries Mertens, but they are still given a 73.09 per cent chance of Champions League qualification.
In the chasing pack, Roma are given a 30.18 per cent chance of a top four spot and Stats Perform AI believes Mourinho's men are the likeliest team to finish in one of the two Europa League places, with no team given a greater chance than the Giallorossi's 19.58 per cent.
Atalanta have a 20.64 per cent chance of getting back into the top four, though are still deemed likely to improve on last season's eighth place as favourites for sixth and qualification for the Europa League (18.56 per cent).
That leaves Lazio with a 17.09 per cent chance of seventh and a Europa Conference League spot, though Fiorentina (11.10), Hellas Verona (8.45) and Sassuolo (8.34) are not counted out entirely.
CREMONESE UNLIKELY TO RISE TO THE TOP
It is not too much of a surprise to see the promoted teams are predicted to be facing a tough task to stay up.
Cremonese are the favourites for the drop at 63.41 per cent, with Lecce (47.10 per cent) also expected to head back to Serie B at the end of the campaign.
Second favourites for relegation, though, are last year's 17th place team Salernitana, who avoided relegation by a single point ahead of Cagliari. Davide Nicola's side are handed a 58.10 per cent chance of failing to escape this time.
Monza came up through the play-offs and have made a number of new signings, including former Inter players Andrea Ranocchia and Stefano Sensi, which could be why they are given just a 27.92 per cent chance of going back down, slightly ahead of Empoli at 25.17 per cent.
Only four teams are given a zero per cent chance of relegation, which unsurprisingly is last season's top four.
St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start
Marco Reus is desperate to bring silverware to the LA Galaxy after making a flying start to his time in MLS, with St. Louis City the destination for his first road game on Sunday.
Reus registered a goal and an assist on debut last week as the Galaxy beat Atlanta United 2-0, maintaining their grip on top spot in the Western Conference.
The Galaxy are five points clear of local rivals Los Angeles FC at the top of the standings ahead of Sunday's trip to St. Louis, who are 13th and 10 points adrift of the playoff picture.
Reus' arrival in Los Angeles has caused plenty of fanfare, but he is focused solely on the team's collective aims.
"It's not about me, it's about the team," he said. "We want to be champions. So we take it game by game.
"Besides the traffic, it's really amazing. The people are so friendly. The weather, it's really nice. When you wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, you start the day differently.
"So I'm really, really happy every morning I come into the dressing room. I'm just happy and excited."
St. Louis played out a thrilling 4-4 draw with the Portland Timbers last week, twice throwing away a two-goal lead to leave interim coach John Hackworth bewildered.
"Really don't know what to say," Hackworth said. "It's hard to imagine coming to a place like this and scoring four goals, being up, and then just losing one-versus-one defensive battles.
"Sometimes, the number of goals you give up, or the number of goals you score, can hide a lot of the transition moments.
"An easy way to prevent some of these defensive miscues from happening is to just be better with the ball."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
St. Louis City – Eduard Lowen
Lowen scored his fourth goal of the MLS season last time out, converting from the penalty spot as St. Louis drew 4-4 with the Timbers.
Only Joao Klauss, with five goals, has outscored him for St. Louis this term.
LA Galaxy – Marco Reus
Reus is one of 20 players in MLS history to record a goal and an assist on his regular-season debut.
He is also the fifth Galaxy player to do so, after Steven Gerrard, Andreas Herzog, Giovani dos Santos and Sasha Victorine. No other team have had more than two players achieve the feat.
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
The Galaxy have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches, the first time they have done so in a single season since 2011. LA have not recorded 11 wins in a span of 14 matches within a single regular season in the post-shootout era (since 2000).
It would be no surprise to see the points shared in this one, though. All three meetings between St. Louis and the Galaxy have ended level, all with different scorelines (1-1, 2-2, 3-3).
St. Louis have only won one of the last six matches in which they have held the lead in regular-season play dating back to the beginning of June (four draws, one defeat).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
St. Louis City – 35.8%
LA Galaxy – 38.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid
Barcelona forward Raphinha believes the team have laid down a statement of their intent by starting the season with four straight wins in LaLiga.
Raphinha scored the first hat-trick of his career and also delivered two assists on Saturday, as Barca crushed Real Valladolid 7-0 at Camp Nou.
Hansi Flick's side already possess a four-point cushion at the top of the table after also recording victories over Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano.
Raphinha believes their results have demonstrated the club got things right in the transfer market, telling Movistar: "Today's game has shown that there is no need for anyone else to come. We are very happy because of that.
"We are in very good shape. The team is working hard. Today's result shows what we are working for.
"We saw that the coach was on the sidelines asking for more goals and that's our mentality.
"We are hungry and want to score as many goals as we can. When we are dominant like we have been, the best way to respect our rivals is not taking the foot off the gas."
Raphinha was one of the players who faced criticism during Barca's trophyless 2023-24 campaign and was rumoured to be on his way out ahead of the new season.
The Blaugrana again battled financial restrictions throughout the window, allowing Ilkay Gundogan to leave in order to secure the registration of new arrival Dani Olmo.
With his future now certain, Raphinha is keen to nail down a starting spot and contribute on a regular basis.
"I don't know if today's was my best game, but it's certainly among my best. I will try to play even better and as much as I can," the Brazilian said.
"I'm very happy to be able to help the team. I feel good. I knew that this season would be very important for me. I'm looking for my best version to help my team-mates and be more confident."
Lazio 2-2 Milan: Leao salvages draw but Rossoneri still winless
Rafael Leao came off the bench to earn Milan a 2-2 draw with Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, but Paulo Fonseca's side are still without a Serie A win this season.
Milan were in front at the break through Strahinja Pavlovic's eighth-minute goal, the Serbian rising highest to power home a header from Christian Pulisic's corner.
However, Lazio hit back in the second half with Valentin Castellanos and Boulaye Dia scoring in quick succession.
Nuno Tavares' first-time ball into the centre was met by the unmarked Castellanos to level in the 62nd minute, then Dia tapped another Tavares cutback home to put the Biancocelesti ahead four minutes later.
Fonseca reacted by sending on four substitutes, and those changes had a swift impact as three of them combined for the leveller.
Theo Hernandez – who joined Leao in being dropped from the start – picked out Tammy Abraham, and his lay-off allowed Leao to escape Tavares to fire past Ivan Provedel.
The game was preceded by an emotional tribute to the man who led Lazio to their last league title, Sven-Goran Eriksson, who died at the age of 76 on Monday.
A Lazio shirt bearing the Swede's name was displayed on the home bench, while a banner held up by the home fans read: "You brought us to the top of the world... Have a good trip Mr. Sven."
Data Debrief: Milan's slow start continues
New Milan boss Fonseca is already under pressure after overseeing a return of two points from his first three league games at the helm.
It is the first time the Rossoneri have drawn two of their opening three matches in a Serie A season since 2011-12, when they also drew two and lost one,
They went on to finish second that season, just four points adrift of champions Juventus. If a title challenge is to take place this term, rapid improvements are needed.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
