Serie A returns on Saturday, with Milan looking to retain their title after a first Scudetto triumph in 11 years.
The Rossoneri have brought in Belgium duo Charles De Ketelaere and Divock Origi to bolster Stefano Pioli's squad as they prepare to face another challenge from rivals Inter.
Simone Inzaghi will have his own Belgium international striker Romelu Lukaku to call on again after he was brought back on loan from Chelsea.
How will those clubs fare, who is likely to be their closest challengers, and who will be fearing the drop from Italy's top flight?
Stats Perform AI has predicted the outcome of the campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and have thrown up some interesting results, with a heavy favourite for top spot.
INTER TO TAKE THEIR TITLE BACK WITH FAMILIAR FACE ON BOARD
In the end, there were just two points in it.
A fascinating battle between Milan and Inter last season saw Pioli's men edge the title with 86 points after a 3-0 win at Sassuolo on the final day.
Despite the impressive way Milan closed out that title, the data makes Inter 47.97 per cent favourites to regain it in 2022-23.
The return of Lukaku is likely to be a big reason for that, with the 29-year-old having scored 47 goals in 72 Serie A games prior to joining Chelsea last year, and he played a major part in Inter's Scudetto win in 2020-21.
Milan's chances are surprisingly not even second best, with the data suggesting there is a 16.43 per cent likelihood of them retaining their title, with Juventus judged to have a slightly better 17.93 per cent chance.
Napoli are deemed to have a 13.75 per cent chance, with no other team being considered to have any more than a two per cent chance, including Jose Mourinho's Roma at 1.99 per cent.
TOP FOUR FIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MORE OF THE SAME
There was very little drama in the race for the Champions League spots last season, with Napoli and Juventus well out of the title fight but clear of fifth place with multiple games to go.
Stats Perform AI expects the same four teams to take up those spots again, albeit in a different order, with Juve in second, Milan third and Napoli fourth.
The positive numbers for the Bianconeri are likely to be a result of Serbia striker Dusan Vlahovic having a full season to lead the line, along with big name additions of Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria.
Napoli could be the most at risk after losing several key players since the end of last season, including Kalidou Koulibaly, Lorenzo Insigne and Dries Mertens, but they are still given a 73.09 per cent chance of Champions League qualification.
In the chasing pack, Roma are given a 30.18 per cent chance of a top four spot and Stats Perform AI believes Mourinho's men are the likeliest team to finish in one of the two Europa League places, with no team given a greater chance than the Giallorossi's 19.58 per cent.
Atalanta have a 20.64 per cent chance of getting back into the top four, though are still deemed likely to improve on last season's eighth place as favourites for sixth and qualification for the Europa League (18.56 per cent).
That leaves Lazio with a 17.09 per cent chance of seventh and a Europa Conference League spot, though Fiorentina (11.10), Hellas Verona (8.45) and Sassuolo (8.34) are not counted out entirely.
CREMONESE UNLIKELY TO RISE TO THE TOP
It is not too much of a surprise to see the promoted teams are predicted to be facing a tough task to stay up.
Cremonese are the favourites for the drop at 63.41 per cent, with Lecce (47.10 per cent) also expected to head back to Serie B at the end of the campaign.
Second favourites for relegation, though, are last year's 17th place team Salernitana, who avoided relegation by a single point ahead of Cagliari. Davide Nicola's side are handed a 58.10 per cent chance of failing to escape this time.
Monza came up through the play-offs and have made a number of new signings, including former Inter players Andrea Ranocchia and Stefano Sensi, which could be why they are given just a 27.92 per cent chance of going back down, slightly ahead of Empoli at 25.17 per cent.
Only four teams are given a zero per cent chance of relegation, which unsurprisingly is last season's top four.
Des Buckingham feels heavy schedule caught up with Oxford
Oxford boss Des Buckingham felt the heavy schedule of three games in six days took its toll on his team as they were held 1-1 by Stevenage at the Kassam Stadium.
It means it is effectively no longer in Oxford’s hands to reach the League One play-offs because Lincoln are three points behind them with a game in hand and a superior goal difference.
Buckingham felt the decision not to award the U’s a penalty when Marcus Browne appeared to have been fouled by keeper Craig MacGillivray in the first half was crucial.
They had to come from behind as Stevenage went in front through a Sam Long own goal in the 32nd minute, Cameron Brannagan replying from the penalty spot on 58 minutes when Carl Piergianni fouled Ruben Rodrigues – though that appeared to have been outside the box.
Buckingham said: “To play three games in six days is a big ask.
“We had 26 shots but couldn’t get that second goal we needed.
“There was a clear penalty not given in the first half, and for us that’s the second game in a row that one hasn’t been given when it should have been. It was a huge moment in the game, and very frustrating.
“The referee told me he couldn’t see it, but the linesman was only 15 yards away and had a clear view.
“I’m delighted with the performance but ultimately we’ve got just the four points from these three home games, now we need to make sure we prepare right and get three in the last one at Exeter.
“When we looked to rearrange the Lincoln game we chose this week because it was a free week, then Sky told us they wanted to bring this Stevenage one forward and show it on the Friday night which meant three games in six days.
“There was nothing we could do about it, but had we known they were going to do that, we would have played the Lincoln game another week.
“It’s going to be a tight finish – I wouldn’t rule out Blackpool either, and they’ve got to play Barnsley.”
Stevenage had lost manager Steve Evans in the week, with Evans heading north to become Rotherham boss.
Caretaker boss Alex Revell said: “Steve always had two clubs very much in his heart – this one and Rotherham. Believe me, making the decision was probably the hardest thing he’s had to do, he said.
“I wanted to take today and make the players ready. I really enjoyed it because they gave everything.
“I’m very proud of what the lads did tonight.
“We had a great day yesterday in terms of training and getting ready and trying to get a few bits into them.
“They came to a really tough place and worked so hard for each other.
“In spells we created some half-chances, probably not enough, but it was about showing our togetherness as a club and our spirit.
“I think we showed why we have caused teams problems this season, especially with our energy and our workrate.
“The first penalty shout against us was a penalty and should have been given so we got away with that.
“But it doesn’t mean that something that started outside the box should be a penalty. Two wrongs don’t make a right.”
Mauricio Pochettino not expecting a vulnerable Man City in FA Cup semi-final
Mauricio Pochettino warned his Chelsea players not to expect to come up against a vulnerable Manchester City side when the teams meet in Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final.
City go into the game off the back of playing extra time against Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday night before eventually being knocked out on penalties, leaving less than 72 hours recovery time ahead of stepping out at Wembley.
Pep Guardiola has had to deal with fatigue amongst his ranks in recent weeks, with midfielder Rodri admitting to needing a rest earlier this month. He was subsequently left out of the team for last weekend’s win over Luton at the Etihad Stadium but returned to the starting XI for the defeat to Real.
They are still in contention to retain two of the three trophies they won last season, holding a two-point lead over Arsenal and Liverpool in the Premier League title race in addition to Saturday’s meeting with Pochettino’s side as they seek a third FA Cup triumph in six seasons.
Chelsea will return to the scene of their Carabao Cup final loss to Liverpool in February, after which they were heavily criticised for failing to overcome a Reds team decimated by injury.
Jurgen Klopp’s side triumphed in extra time despite finishing the game with four highly inexperienced academy graduates aged 21 or under on the pitch.
And Pochettino insisted there will be no easy ride for his players as City lick their European wounds.
“The good example is Liverpool,” he said. “People were talking about too many injured players, how many young kids they had playing. Look what happened after.
“From our point of view, we are going to compete against Manchester City. If you ask me about their situation, I can give my opinion, but we are not talking about that. We are going to compete against them.
“Today we were preparing, doing meetings, about the Manchester City that played against Real Madrid, that played against us in the Premier League.
“We are not talking about playing one (City line-up) or playing another. For me, the strength of Manchester City is that they keep the same idea and the same philosophy.
“In the last five, six, seven years, even with different players, they play in the same way, they have the structure to dominate and to create chances and to win games and to win trophies.
“I understand the situation is tough for them after playing 120 minutes in the Champions League. Emotionally, you expend a big energy. It’s about how they recover now.
“They are going be competitive and they have an amazing staff that look after the players. They’re going to put 11 players that will play with full energy to try and win the game.”
Pochettino will have Enzo Fernandez available for selection after he missed Monday’s 6-0 demolition of Everton.
The manager said the World Cup winner’s fitness will be carefully managed following reports this week in Argentina that he requires a hernia operation.
“We are not looking for heroes,” said Pochettino.
Pep Guardiola says Cole Palmer is one of the players of the season
Pep Guardiola admits Chelsea’s former Manchester City starlet Cole Palmer has been one of the players of the season.
The City manager has also revealed the 21-year-old England midfielder had been trying to leave the Etihad Stadium for two years prior to his £42.5million switch to Stamford Bridge last summer.
Palmer, who was considered one of City’s brightest Academy products, has been Chelsea’s most influential performer since he moved south in search of more first-team opportunities.
Palmer has scored 25 goals this season, 11 of which have come in his last six appearances.
He heads into Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final showdown with former club City at Wembley fresh from a four-goal salvo against Everton on Monday.
Guardiola said: “Cole has been the decisive player, maybe of the season, in many aspects.
“He’s an exceptional player. We knew that when he was here.
“We know how he’s proving (himself), but he has had a lot of minutes. I said many times, I didn’t give him the minutes when maybe he deserved it. He wanted the minutes he now has at Chelsea.
“I understand completely. I’m happy for him because he’s a lovely guy, a shy guy. He has an incredible potential, otherwise he would not have been here.
“He’s playing good. He’s an incredible threat. He’s playing fantastically.”
Palmer was a member of the City squad that won the treble last season and he began the current campaign strongly with goals for Guardiola’s side in the Community Shield and European Super Cup.
Yet despite attempts to persuade the Wythenshawe-born player to stay with his hometown club, his mind to move on before the end of the summer transfer window had long been made up.
Guardiola said: “So what can I say? The decision has been made for many reasons. He was asking for two seasons to leave.
“I said, ‘No, stay’. At the end, (he said), ‘No, I want to leave’. What can we do? I said in pre-season, ‘Stay because Riyad (Mahrez) has gone’. He said, ‘No, I want to leave’.
“After two seasons, what can you say? So go there. Playing at that level is exceptional. Everybody knows it.”
City’s hopes of winning a second successive treble were dashed on Wednesday as they suffered an agonising penalty shoot-out defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Their focus is now on defending the domestic double, a feat no side has previously achieved, but Guardiola prefers not to view the targets in those terms.
Guardiola said: “We were close again (to the treble) but it didn’t happen.
“So my advice about trebles or doubles or these things is, why are we not focused on Chelsea? It’s enough of a target to think about.
“When you have one or two games left to the end of the Premier League and you are already in the FA Cup final, I can answer you perfectly.
“We’ve felt, two times, how strong Chelsea are. They are really, really difficult.
“So, win that game and see what happens the next three, four, five games in the Premier League and after we will see.”
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