The fourth quarter-final at Euro 2024 sees the Netherlands take on Turkiye in what promises to be a thriller in Berlin.
Ronald Koeman's Oranje team clicked into gear in the last 16 as they dispatched Romania 3-0.
Turkiye, meanwhile, beat Austria 2-1 in a thriller, with goalkeeper Mert Gunok making the save of the tournament so far to ensure Vincenzo Montella's team avoided extra time.
If recent meetings between these nations are anything to go by, then anticipate plenty of excitement in Saturday's clash.
That being said, with a place in the last four, and a tie with either Switzerland or England up for grabs, there is plenty on the line.
Here, we use Opta data to preview the clash.
What's expected?
Turkiye dumped out one of the group stage's most impressive teams when they sent Austria packing on Tuesday, but it is the Netherlands who are made favourites by Opta's supercomputer.
The Dutch are given a 58.1% chance of success at the Olympiastadion, while Turkiye's chances are rated at a rather slimmer 19.7%. The likelihood of a draw is 22.5%.
This will be the 15th international meeting between Netherlands and Turkiye.
The Oranje have won six of the previous 14, with Turkiye winning four and the others finishing level. However, this tie is the first fixture between these teams to come at a major tournament.
The last two matches between the Netherlands and Turkiye have seen a combined 13 goals (6.5 per game), with Turkiye winning 4-2 in March 2021 and the Netherlands winning 6-1 in September 2021, both in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.
And the data from this tournament also suggests we should expect goals. These sides rank in the top eight teams in the tournament for expected goals (xG), with the Netherlands (6.56) coming in at sixth, and Turkiye (6.11) in eighth.
The Netherlands have had the fifth-most shots (63), while Turkiye have had the sixth-most (57).
Both these teams like to attack, but in defence, the Dutch clearly have the edge, and in fairness, that should be expected with the likes of Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk.
Koeman's team have recorded 3.84 expected goals against (xGA) across their four matches, in contrast to Turkiye's figure of 8.0. Indeed, of the teams remaining in the competition, Turkiye have conceded the most shots (59).
History unkind for the Dutch
The Oranje have progressed from five of their last seven major tournament quarter-finals, although one of the two exceptions was their most recent such tie, when they lost in a penalty shoot-out to Argentina at the 2022 World Cup.
This is the Netherlands' first European Championship quarter-final since 2008, when they lost 3-1 to Russia.
And while they are favourites, history has not been wholly kind to them.
The Netherlands have only progressed from three of their last nine knockout ties at the European Championships.
They are looking to win two knockout ties in a single edition of the finals for only the second time, after 1988, when they won the competition.
Koeman will want his team to replicate the level of control they showed against Romania, and midfielder Tijjani Reijnders was crucial to that.
Coming into the quarter-finals, only Joshua Kimmich (14) and Kevin De Bruyne (11) have made more passes that have broken the opposition's defensive line at Euro 2024 than Reijnders (10), who made five against Romania.
Or will it be Turkish delight?
Turkiye are looking to win three consecutive matches at the European Championships for the first time, and only the second time at major tournaments overall, after doing so at the 2002 World Cup to reach the semi-finals.
This is the fourth major tournament quarter-final they have reached, after Euro 2000, the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2008.
They reached the semi-final of the latter two of those, after losing 2-0 to Portugal in 2000.
However, if they are to upset the odds on Saturday, then they will need to keep their heads.
Turkiye have received 18 yellow cards at Euro 2024. In European Championship history, only Czechia in 1996 have been given more cards at a single edition (20 – 19 yellows, one red).
Montella's team have picked up at least two cards in each of their last 24 matches at major tournaments, so that indiscipline is something the Dutch could use to their advantage.
Set-pieces could be crucial for Turkiye, who scored both of their goals from corners in the win over Austria.
That being said, they also conceded from a corner, making that the first match on record (since 1980) at the European Championships to see as many as three goals come via such set-piece situations.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Netherlands - Cody Gakpo
Gakpo's brilliant strike got the ball rolling for the Oranje against Romania, taking him onto three goals for the tournament.
Across the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, the only European player with more goals than Gakpo (six) is Kylian Mbappe (nine).
All six of Gakpo's strikes have come in different matches; the only Dutch players to score in more different games at major tournaments are Dennis Bergkamp (10), Robin van Persie (eight), and Wesley Sneijder (seven).
Turkiye - Arda Guler
Real Madrid youngster Guler has proven his superstar potential in Germany, assisting Merih Demiral's winner.
With that assist, Guler is one of only three teenagers to both score and set up a goal at a single Euros, after Wayne Rooney (four goals, one assist) and Cristiano Ronaldo (two goals, two assists) at Euro 2004.
Turkiye have given six starts to teenagers at Euro 2024 – three for Kenan Yildiz and three for Guler – a joint record in a single edition of the finals, along with Spain at Euro 2020 (six, all for Pedri).
Koeman: Netherlands proved they have heart in comeback win over Turkiye
Reaching the semi-finals at Euro 2024 proves just how much "heart" the Netherlands have, so says Ronald Koeman.
The Netherlands came from behind to beat Turkiye 2-1 on Saturday thanks to a header from Stefan de Vrij and Mert Muldur's own goal in Berlin.
That victory set up a semi-final clash with England in Dortmund on Wednesday.
And Koeman suggested his team have proved their doubters wrong with the spirit they have shown through their run to the last four.
"I think for the whole nation it's something special," he said, as quoted by The Athletic.
"We're a small nation and we're part of the semi-finals with England, France and Spain. We're really proud to have the opportunity to play it on Wednesday.
"It was a really emotional match and we had a big heart, and sometimes we get criticised about that, that we don't have that heart compared to other nations.
"The players showed it in the second half, and the last five minutes. You probably saw that better from the TV than I did from the bench. We had to suffer."
Some excellent goalkeeping from Bart Verbruggen and brilliant last-ditch defending from the Oranje as a team helped them keep Turkiye at bay after Muldur bundled into his own net under pressure from Cody Gakpo in the 76th minute.
De Vrij's equaliser was his first goal for the Netherlands since March 2015, and the centre-back is now relishing a meeting with England, who scraped past Switzerland on penalties.
"It definitely means a lot to us as a team," he said.
"First of all, to reach the semi-finals is great for us, but it’s not finished yet. From tomorrow we will start to prepare for this very important game.
"I think that England has a great team, they have so much quality, but so do we. The Netherlands against England is a very nice game and in the semi-final of the Euros? It'll be a great match."
Reggae Boy Reid inks three-year deal with promoted Leicester City ahead of new EPL season
Jamaica’s Reggae Boy Bobby Reid says he hoping to use his experience and energy to help Leicester City achieve their targets and possibly enjoy a successful return to the English Premier League (EPL) when the 2024/25 season gets under way in August.
Reid’s declaration came as he shared his excitement about joining the promoted club on a three-year deal, becoming manager Steve Cooper’s first signing ahead of the new campaign.
The 31-year-old’s move to ‘The Foxes’ follows his release from Fulham, where he made over 200 appearances in an almost five-year stint at the west London club.
“Turning up here was a special moment, looking in and seeing the infrastructure. It’s got that wow factor. It feels nice. I landed on Tuesday and now I’m signing so it’s been a quick turnaround, but obviously I’m delighted to be here and I can’t wait to get going,” Reid, who has 33 international caps for Jamaica, shared.
“I had a good chat with the manager, he told me the vision of the club and sold it for me. I spoke to him a few times and he was very clear in what he wanted and what he saw in me. He believes in me and it’s a perfect fit. It’s going to be a very interesting season,” he added.
Reid, in his final offering at Fulham, scored seven goals from 43 appearances in all competitions last season as the Craven Cottage club battled to a 13th-place finish in the league.
The fleet-footed midfielder, declared his readiness to play his part in Leicester City’s charge to possibly repeat their 2015/16 League title winning feat.
Leicester, who won the Championship last season after being relegated from the Premier League the previous year, are set to open their new EPL campaign against Tottenham Hotspur next month.
“I want to bring experience. I’ve got energy, I’d like to say I’m a goalscorer as well and a playmaker. Hopefully I can bring all of those things and make the squad better,” Reid said.
“I pride myself on those types of things and helping the team, whether that is being a leader within the dressing room or being an experienced player for the younger ones and just being an all-round good person. I think that is key to having a good season,” he noted.
“It’s fallen on me with my age but I’ll take that mantle on. I’m looking to get going, meet my team-mates, meet the rest of the staff and keep this club in the Premier League. I’ll give my all for the club – 100 per cent – and hopefully bring some smiles to faces,” Reid, who has had stints with Cardiff City, Bristol City, Cheltenham Town, Oldham Athletic, and Plymouth Argyle, stated.
Colombia 5-0 Panama: Rodriguez stars as La Tricolor coast into Copa America semi-finals
James Rodriguez stole the show with a goal and two assists as Colombia breezed into the Copa America semi-finals after brushing Panama aside with a 5-0 thrashing on Saturday.
Colombia captain Rodriguez teed up Jhon Cordoba's opener and Luis Diaz's cool lob either side of his own 15th-minute penalty at State Farm Stadium.
Richard Rios hammered home another after 70 minutes in bizarre circumstances after the referee appeared to blow for a Colombia penalty, then Miguel Borja converted when Nestor Lorenzo's side were awarded another spot-kick in stoppage time.
Having dispatched Panama with ease, a semi-final meeting with either Brazil or Uruguay awaits for Colombia, who have reached the last four in three of their last four Copa tournaments.
Colombia needed just eight minutes to open the scoring as Cordoba found space inside the six-yard box, diving low to head Rodriguez's right-sided corner past Orlando Mosquera.
Jose Fajardo blazed over in response but Lorenzo's side would soon extend their advantage only seven minutes after taking the lead.
Panama goalkeeper Mosquera felled the onrushing Jhon Arias, with a lengthy VAR check reviewing a potential offside in the build-up before the penalty decision was confirmed.
Yet that stoppage failed to detract from Rodriguez's focus as the attacking midfielder hammered into the top-right corner from 12 yards, sending Mosquera the wrong way.
Panama almost halved the arrears soon after, though Edgardo Farina's header from Eric Davis' free-kick cannoned against the left post before Camilo Vargas somehow parried away on the line.
Thomas Christensen's side suffered further damage just before the break as Rodriguez's quick-thinking free-kick from inside his own half set up Diaz to lob the stranded Mosquera from just outside the Panama box.
Panama provided a battling performance of some sorts in the second half, yet for the wrong reasons as numerous fouls slowed the game down with Jovani Welch and Farina both cautioned.
Daniel Munoz was then felled as the referee appeared to blow his whistle and point to the penalty spot, only for Rios to arrow into the bottom-right corner from range to make the advantage count.
Christensen and the Panama bench cut frustrated figures following that odd refereeing sequence, and that annoyance furthered when Borja slotted a stoppage-time penalty into the bottom-right corner after Jose Cordoba clumsily hacked down Santiago Arias.
Who can stop Rodriguez-inspired Colombia?
Lorenzo's men are now a remarkable 27 games unbeaten after their dominant victory, though a huge test awaits them in the semi-finals against either Uruguay or Brazil.
Yet both of those sides may be no match for Colombia if Rodriguez's imperious form is anything to go by.
The Sao Paolo midfielder is the first player in the Copa America to both score and assist within the opening 15 minutes of a match, since such records began in 2011.
Rodriguez is also the first player at the 2024 edition to reach six goal involvements (one goal, five assists), ahead of Argentina's Lautaro Martinez and Venezuela's Salomon Rondon (both four).
The Colombia captain's five assists are three more than any other player so far at this Copa. Will that creativity lead Lorenzo's side to glory?
Panama pain
The 2024 edition of the Copa America marked only Panama's second participation, with this their first instance of making the knockout stages.
Panama may have been confident for this one, too, having won four of their previous seven competitive meetings this century against CONMEBOL sides (three defeats).
Indeed, two of those victories came against Colombia (both at the 2005 CONCACAF Gold Cup), and Christensen's team impressed this year in Group C to pip the United States to second.
Yet they were brought crashing back down to earth here, with no way back after a first-half blitz from an imperious Colombia side.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
