The fourth quarter-final at Euro 2024 sees the Netherlands take on Turkiye in what promises to be a thriller in Berlin.

Ronald Koeman's Oranje team clicked into gear in the last 16 as they dispatched Romania 3-0.

Turkiye, meanwhile, beat Austria 2-1 in a thriller, with goalkeeper Mert Gunok making the save of the tournament so far to ensure Vincenzo Montella's team avoided extra time.

If recent meetings between these nations are anything to go by, then anticipate plenty of excitement in Saturday's clash.

That being said, with a place in the last four, and a tie with either Switzerland or England up for grabs, there is plenty on the line.

Here, we use Opta data to preview the clash.

What's expected?

Turkiye dumped out one of the group stage's most impressive teams when they sent Austria packing on Tuesday, but it is the Netherlands who are made favourites by Opta's supercomputer.

The Dutch are given a 58.1% chance of success at the Olympiastadion, while Turkiye's chances are rated at a rather slimmer 19.7%. The likelihood of a draw is 22.5%.

This will be the 15th international meeting between Netherlands and Turkiye.

The Oranje have won six of the previous 14, with Turkiye winning four and the others finishing level. However, this tie is the first fixture between these teams to come at a major tournament.

The last two matches between the Netherlands and Turkiye have seen a combined 13 goals (6.5 per game), with Turkiye winning 4-2 in March 2021 and the Netherlands winning 6-1 in September 2021, both in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.

And the data from this tournament also suggests we should expect goals. These sides rank in the top eight teams in the tournament for expected goals (xG), with the Netherlands (6.56) coming in at sixth, and Turkiye (6.11) in eighth.

The Netherlands have had the fifth-most shots (63), while Turkiye have had the sixth-most (57).

Both these teams like to attack, but in defence, the Dutch clearly have the edge, and in fairness, that should be expected with the likes of Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk.

Koeman's team have recorded 3.84 expected goals against (xGA) across their four matches, in contrast to Turkiye's figure of 8.0. Indeed, of the teams remaining in the competition, Turkiye have conceded the most shots (59).

History unkind for the Dutch

The Oranje have progressed from five of their last seven major tournament quarter-finals, although one of the two exceptions was their most recent such tie, when they lost in a penalty shoot-out to Argentina at the 2022 World Cup.

This is the Netherlands' first European Championship quarter-final since 2008, when they lost 3-1 to Russia.

And while they are favourites, history has not been wholly kind to them.

The Netherlands have only progressed from three of their last nine knockout ties at the European Championships.

They are looking to win two knockout ties in a single edition of the finals for only the second time, after 1988, when they won the competition.

Koeman will want his team to replicate the level of control they showed against Romania, and midfielder Tijjani Reijnders was crucial to that.

Coming into the quarter-finals, only Joshua Kimmich (14) and Kevin De Bruyne (11) have made more passes that have broken the opposition's defensive line at Euro 2024 than Reijnders (10), who made five against Romania.

Or will it be Turkish delight?

Turkiye are looking to win three consecutive matches at the European Championships for the first time, and only the second time at major tournaments overall, after doing so at the 2002 World Cup to reach the semi-finals.

This is the fourth major tournament quarter-final they have reached, after Euro 2000, the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2008.

They reached the semi-final of the latter two of those, after losing 2-0 to Portugal in 2000.

However, if they are to upset the odds on Saturday, then they will need to keep their heads.

Turkiye have received 18 yellow cards at Euro 2024. In European Championship history, only Czechia in 1996 have been given more cards at a single edition (20 – 19 yellows, one red).

Montella's team have picked up at least two cards in each of their last 24 matches at major tournaments, so that indiscipline is something the Dutch could use to their advantage.

Set-pieces could be crucial for Turkiye, who scored both of their goals from corners in the win over Austria.

That being said, they also conceded from a corner, making that the first match on record (since 1980) at the European Championships to see as many as three goals come via such set-piece situations.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Netherlands - Cody Gakpo

Gakpo's brilliant strike got the ball rolling for the Oranje against Romania, taking him onto three goals for the tournament.

Across the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, the only European player with more goals than Gakpo (six) is Kylian Mbappe (nine).

All six of Gakpo's strikes have come in different matches; the only Dutch players to score in more different games at major tournaments are Dennis Bergkamp (10), Robin van Persie (eight), and Wesley Sneijder (seven).

Turkiye - Arda Guler

Real Madrid youngster Guler has proven his superstar potential in Germany, assisting Merih Demiral's winner.

With that assist, Guler is one of only three teenagers to both score and set up a goal at a single Euros, after Wayne Rooney (four goals, one assist) and Cristiano Ronaldo (two goals, two assists) at Euro 2004.

Turkiye have given six starts to teenagers at Euro 2024 – three for Kenan Yildiz and three for Guler – a joint record in a single edition of the finals, along with Spain at Euro 2020 (six, all for Pedri).

Vincenzo Montella praised Turkiye's soul and belief following their victory over Austria in Leipzig on Tuesday. 

Merih Demiral's double ensured Montella's side progressed to the quarter-finals of a European Championships for the first time since 2008. 

"No one gave up," Montella said. "Everyone gave a bit extra in terms of their soul, and for a head coach, you know that there are matches such as these and you can only win matches such as these if there is a soul within the squad.

"There's that belief, that conviction. I could go on all night, but I saw all of those attributes, and that makes me very proud."

However, the result could have been so much different if it was not for the fingertips of Mert Gunok. 

With the game ticking towards the fourth and final minute of injury time, Christoph Baumgartner saw his header brilliantly tipped behind by the Besiktas goalkeeper. 

The triumph was of huge significance to the Turkiye head coach, having seen his side lose 6-1 to Austria in an international friendly back in March. 

"That was a horrible stain on my career," Montella said. "That was the team that I was really waiting for, to try and get this monkey off my back.

"So I respect Austria, I respect their head coach, I respect their game plan, the tactics that they implemented on the pitch. But we head coaches, just like footballers, are competitors. 

"And I had that real competitive instinct deep within me because I wanted to change this result. It was only a friendly, but there's no such thing as a friendly at international level."

Montella's side face the Netherlands in Berlin this Saturday for a place in the semi-finals and set up a potential tie against England. 

"We've got huge following. There's passion and the love is really visceral back home in Turkey, so I'm very happy to have handed Turks a bit of pride," he said.

"So this responsibility, this love and support, we constantly feel it. But you can only really embrace these dreams if you work hard right from day one. We've done that right from the outset. We'll really celebrate tonight, but as of tomorrow, we get down to work."

Arda Guler scored a sensational goal as Turkiye came out 3-1 victors after a thrilling clash with Georgia at Euro 2024.

The Real Madrid midfielder curled home a stunner from outside the area to put Turkiye 2-1 midway through the second half and become the youngest player to score on his Euros debut, with Kerem Akturkoglu confirming the win after a wave of Georgia pressure. 

Ahead of the encounter in Dortmund, fans from both nations were involved in scenes of violence inside the stadium as torrential weather conditions threatened to postpone Georgia's maiden bow at an international tournament. 

Turkiye led in the 25th minute, as Mert Muldur, who had scored just once before for his nation, fired home a goal of the tournament contender with a sweet volley into the top corner. 

The Turkish supporters packed into Westfalenstadion were in raptures when they thought their side had doubled their advantage two minutes later, only for Kenan Yildiz's effort to be disallowed for offside by VAR. 

And a moment of history arrived for Georgia when Georges Mikautadze neatly flicked a finish beyond Mert Gunok at the near post.

Yet Turkiye's lead was restored when Guler picked out the top-left corner, breaking a record set by Cristiano Ronaldo in 2004 in the process.

Georgia went agonisingly close to an equaliser - Giorgi Kochorashvili hitting the crossbar and drilling off target from close range while Khvicha Kvaratskhelia struck the post and Samet Akaydin made a goal-line block.

But with Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili up for a corner deep in injury time, Turkiye broke and Akturkoglu placed the ball into the empty net to settle a thrilling Group F clash.

Data Debrief: Guler steals the show as Turkiye and Georgia light up Euro 2024

In a match that featured 36 shots and a combined 4.3 xG, Guler's sublime effort saw him become the youngest Turkish player to score a goal in the history of major tournaments at just 19 years 114 days.

Turkiye became just the second team ever to start a match at the Euros with two teenagers (Guler and Kenan Yildiz), after Hungary did so in 1964. 

Mikautadze scored Georgia's first ever goal at a major tournament, meanwhile. He has now netted six goals in his last six starts for his country.