The United States' home Copa America campaign was not supposed to come down to this.
Monday's Group C finale against Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay was expected to be a straightforward battle for top spot, with Panama and Bolivia, ranked 43rd and 84th in the world respectively, deemed unlikely to offer much of a threat.
However, a stunning capitulation saw Gregg Berhalter's side beaten 2-1 by Panama on Thursday, the hosts ceding control after Timothy Weah's early red card.
That result has had a seismic impact on their hopes of progressing, potentially leaving them requiring a win against one of the continent's finest next week.
The story of the USA's campaign to date has been one of unfulfilled potential, a lack of decisiveness in attack and a struggle to change things on the fly. It is a tale that might sound familiar to England supporters, who are watching the Three Lions rather limp through to the Euro 2024 knockouts.
Quarter-final hopes in the balance
Before a ball was kicked at this year's tournament, the Opta supercomputer gave the USA a 64.5% chance of reaching the last eight.
After Thursday's result, they are assigned a 51% probability of advancing, as anything less than a victory over Uruguay – who will not rest on their laurels as they bid to clinch top spot – will leave them needing a favour from Bolivia in their match with Panama.
Though the USA could still top the group with a win, third (49%) is now viewed as their most likely final position, which would represent a monumental failure at a tournament viewed as a dress rehearsal for a home World Cup in 2026.
But where has it all gone wrong?
USA follow England's lead
The USA were clearly superior in their opening 2-0 win over Bolivia, firing off 20 shots worth 2.51 expected goals (xG) and recording 35 touches in the area to their opponents' one.
While Weah's early red card – the result of a petulant push to the back of Panama player Amir Murillo's head – put them in a difficult position in Thursday's second match, that incident did not necessarily have to precipitate such a dire collapse.
Indeed, four minutes after Weah's exit, their frustration turned to elation as Folarin Balogun fired a brilliant left-footed finish in off the woodwork from the edge of the area.
But much like England in their first two games at Euro 2024, the USA ceded control after assuming the lead, which was wiped out within four minutes by Cesar Blackman.
Home fans would surely have expected Panama to enjoy more of the ball while a man up, but the sheer extent to which they dominated was alarming.
Panama finished the match with a 74% possession share, the highest figure any CONCACAF team has managed in a Copa America match on record (since 2011), and the eighth-highest overall.
From the 19th minute onwards, the USA completed just three passes into the Panama penalty area, recording a dismal 59.4% passing accuracy throughout the match – comfortably the worst figure at the tournament so far.
Though they won plaudits for their dynamic approach at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Berhalter's side can look uncomfortable when tasked with exercising control, and that was certainly the case on Thursday.
They managed only six shots in total, as Panama set a new national record for the lowest amount of attempts faced in a Copa America match. Their previous low was 12 shots, against Bolivia and Argentina in 2016.
Two of the four defeats that the United States have suffered as hosts in major tournaments have come against Panama.
The coach's changes – particularly the decision to sacrifice Giovanni Reyna for an additional defender in Cameron Carter-Vickers – did nothing to stem the tide.
By the time he changed tack by bringing on Josh Sargent for Tim Ream in the 86th minute, it was too late, with Jose Fajardo's close-range finish proving decisive.
Pepi's profligacy and Balogun's talents wasted
While the USA spent long periods sitting off Panama when down a man, they still had one huge chance to restore their advantage at 1-1, but substitute Ricardo Pepi saw his header kept out by Orlando Mosquera.
Pepi has only played 43 minutes off the bench at this year's Copa, yet his cumulative xG figure of 2.27 is the highest of any player at the tournament.
The five players directly below the goalless Pepi in the xG charts – Kendry Paez, Lautaro Martinez, Darwin Nunez, Solomon Rondon and Facundo Pellistri – have all netted at least once.
While the PSV striker could be forgiven for his wastefulness in the Bolivia match, when USA had already seized control before his second-half introduction, his form is starting to become a major worry.
The fact Pepi was introduced in place of goalscorer Balogun in Atlanta has brought further scrutiny upon Berhalter.
The Monaco forward is one of just four men to net more than once at this year's Copa America, and only the second USA player to score in successive Copa matches, after Clint Dempsey netted in three straight at the 2016 tournament.
Both of Balogun's goals have been pinpoint finishes from the left side of the penalty area, coming despite his xG total for the tournament standing at just 0.34. For context, that is a lower figure than that recorded by Harry Kane through England's first two matches at Euro 2024 (0.48), and the Three Lions' struggles in the chance-creation department have been well documented.
Convincing Balogun to switch allegiance from England in 2023 was considered a major coup for the USA, with his decision coming at the end of a season in which he plundered 22 goals while on loan at Reims from Arsenal.
At present, however, they are wasting their star striker, who has registered just eight touches in the penalty area at this tournament, having averaged 7.97 per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 last term.
Berhalter will hope Uruguay's expansive approach gives Balogun space to attack on matchday three, but without any level of control or the ability to play through the thirds, the striker will always be peripheral.
Similar failings have not yet cost England at Euro 2024, a set of lacklustre opponents and the 24-team format ensuring a group-stage exit was never really on the cards.
With one of South America's form teams next up and no second chances for third-place finishers, the same may not be true for the USA.
Returning fan favourite Alonso calls Liverpool 'one of Europe's best'
Bayer Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso hailed his former club Liverpool as "one of Europe's best" as he prepares for his Anfield return.
Alonso, who spent five successful years at Anfield and helped Liverpool win the Champions League in 2005, returns to his former stomping ground when Leverkusen take on the Reds on Tuesday.
Arne Slot has won 12 of his first 14 matches in charge of Liverpool, including all three in the Champions League so far.
Leverkusen have only won one of their 11 away major European matches in England (D3 L7), and have lost their last two visits to Anfield, and Alonso is under no illusion as to the scale of the task that awaits the reigning Bundesliga champions.
"For us, it is a big challenge," he said.
"Liverpool at the moment are one of the best, if not the best, in Europe, they are showing that in the Premier League and Champions League, a good squad, great coach. We're looking forward to it. Let's see what happens.
"You can play 70 minutes great but in 20 minutes it [the game] is gone, so it is mentally and emotionally we need to be ready.
"In all areas, they are really strong, so the process works really well. [Slot] has done a fantastic job in three months."
Alonso played 210 times across all competitions for Liverpool between 2004 and 2009, scoring 18 goals and providing 20 assists.
After winning the Champions League with the Reds in 2005, he helped them reach the final in 2007, though they lost to Milan on that occasion.
However, the Spaniard does not think he will have too much time for a trip down memory lane.
"Unfortunately, there is no time for tourism – maybe a little run or walk," he said.
"I know the city very well, I love it, but tomorrow I will focus on the game and only the game.
"It feels great to be back here after a few years. It's always special. You notice the development of the club; the new stand looks amazing.
"It is a big game against Liverpool, it cannot get much better than that."
The omens are not great for Leverkusen, though.
Liverpool have lost one of their last 21 European meetings with German opponents (W14 D6), albeit that one defeat came against Leverkusen in 2002.
“We want everyone involved”- Chung hoping for massive support for Reggae Boyz in Nations League Quarterfinal against USA
General Secretary of the Jamaica Football Federation, Dennis Chung, is hoping that Jamaicans come out in their numbers to support the Reggae Boyz during both legs of their CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-final at the National Stadium in Kingston on Thursday, November 14 and Energizer Park in St. Louis, Missouri on Monday, November 18.
The Reggae Boyz will be looking for revenge over their American counterparts after suffering defeat to them at the semi-final stage of last season’s Nations League 1-3 in extra time. The USA went on to win the whole thing with a 2-0 victory over Mexico in the final while the Reggae Boyz beat Panama 1-0 to claim third place.
If the Boyz are to get over the hump this time around, Chung understands that a massive part of it will be the energy they receive from the thousands of Jamaican fans in attendance.
“We are at the quarterfinal stage. We want to ensure that we are there in our numbers supporting the Boyz because we have to make it past the mighty USA which, after we finish with them, they won’t be so mighty,” Chung said in press conference on Monday.
As such, three support groups for Jamaican football-Reggae Boyz Supporters Club, Reggae Football Fans Club and Reggae Boyz Community, are all making it possible for fans from all over the diaspora to have an opportunity to cheer on the Reggae Boyz live and in person.
“We want to welcome this partnership because this is a way for us now to reach our fanbase. We want to ensure that everyone is involved. At the last two games we had over 17,000 people in attendance and that, for us, is very important. It’s not just about playing football. It’s about getting everybody involved,” Chung said on Monday.
Errol Walters and Louis Grant, members of the Reggae Football Fans Club, were also on hand on Monday and gave an overview of this initiative.
“It’s an honor and a pleasure to be serving our country in this way. What we’re trying to do is create an opportunity for fans in the diaspora that we use our collective bargaining power to negotiate to go to the games,” Walters said.
“There are times when I’m in London and want to go to a game and I have no one to travel with so it was always my dream to create a database to say listen, who’s going to the game from where,” Walters added.
Grant explained that this idea came about because of the desire of members of the diaspora to be a driving force behind the support of the team on their journey to the World Cup in 2026.
“This was birthed out a desire to be the proverbial 12th man for our football teams and more so for the second iteration of the historic trip to the World Cup. We, as members of the diaspora here in the United States, think it’s only right that we play our part in drumming up support as far as leveraging air travel, accommodation, and support,”
“For example, we’ve been in touch with US Soccer with regards to the game in St. Louis. We’ve gotten a section that we can have all or most of our supporters concentrated to create that ‘Office’ vibe,”
“In my experience, we’ve gone to games in my area and you’d see our supporters and our flag sparsely across the various stadiums and we are of the opinion that if we were more concentrated in one section, it bodes well or it is a better look and feel for our team,” he added.
Fulham 2-1 Brentford: Wilson's late brace seals comeback win
Harry Wilson scored twice in stoppage time as Fulham came back to beat Brentford 2-1 in an enthralling West London derby.
Wilson was the hero from Fulham's bench on Monday, as Marco Silva's team – who were on the wrong end of a late comeback against Everton last time out in the Premier League – salvaged a victory from the jaws of defeat.
Fulham will feel it was a win they earned from a match they dominated from the off, with the Bees having taken the lead against the run of play through Vitaly Janelt's stunning 24th-minute strike.
But the Fulham pressure finally told when Wilson rose high to flick in his first in the 92nd minute, and – after Bernd Leno made a superb stop to thwart Brentford at the other end – the former Liverpool midfielder nodded in again to send Craven Cottage into raptures.
Fulham's win takes them up into ninth, while Brentford drop to 12th after suffering a fifth league loss of the season.
Data Debrief: Super-sub Wilson to the rescue
Fulham will feel they deserved to come away from that match with three points, having had 26 shots, 12 of which were on target, in an incredibly dominant display.
They also had 46 touches in the opposition box compared to Brentford's nine, but they could not make those count, at least until Wilson's late intervention as he finally broke through Brentford's stubborn defence.
The Welshman scored with both of his shots on target, having three attempts overall, with his goals coming from a combined 0.19 expected goals.
The Bees looked sure to get a first away win, and first clean sheet, of the Premier League season until their late lapse in concentration, and they have now dropped 14 points from winning positions in the competition this season, more than any other team.
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