The United States' home Copa America campaign was not supposed to come down to this.
Monday's Group C finale against Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay was expected to be a straightforward battle for top spot, with Panama and Bolivia, ranked 43rd and 84th in the world respectively, deemed unlikely to offer much of a threat.
However, a stunning capitulation saw Gregg Berhalter's side beaten 2-1 by Panama on Thursday, the hosts ceding control after Timothy Weah's early red card.
That result has had a seismic impact on their hopes of progressing, potentially leaving them requiring a win against one of the continent's finest next week.
The story of the USA's campaign to date has been one of unfulfilled potential, a lack of decisiveness in attack and a struggle to change things on the fly. It is a tale that might sound familiar to England supporters, who are watching the Three Lions rather limp through to the Euro 2024 knockouts.
Quarter-final hopes in the balance
Before a ball was kicked at this year's tournament, the Opta supercomputer gave the USA a 64.5% chance of reaching the last eight.
After Thursday's result, they are assigned a 51% probability of advancing, as anything less than a victory over Uruguay – who will not rest on their laurels as they bid to clinch top spot – will leave them needing a favour from Bolivia in their match with Panama.
Though the USA could still top the group with a win, third (49%) is now viewed as their most likely final position, which would represent a monumental failure at a tournament viewed as a dress rehearsal for a home World Cup in 2026.
But where has it all gone wrong?
USA follow England's lead
The USA were clearly superior in their opening 2-0 win over Bolivia, firing off 20 shots worth 2.51 expected goals (xG) and recording 35 touches in the area to their opponents' one.
While Weah's early red card – the result of a petulant push to the back of Panama player Amir Murillo's head – put them in a difficult position in Thursday's second match, that incident did not necessarily have to precipitate such a dire collapse.
Indeed, four minutes after Weah's exit, their frustration turned to elation as Folarin Balogun fired a brilliant left-footed finish in off the woodwork from the edge of the area.
But much like England in their first two games at Euro 2024, the USA ceded control after assuming the lead, which was wiped out within four minutes by Cesar Blackman.
Home fans would surely have expected Panama to enjoy more of the ball while a man up, but the sheer extent to which they dominated was alarming.
Panama finished the match with a 74% possession share, the highest figure any CONCACAF team has managed in a Copa America match on record (since 2011), and the eighth-highest overall.
From the 19th minute onwards, the USA completed just three passes into the Panama penalty area, recording a dismal 59.4% passing accuracy throughout the match – comfortably the worst figure at the tournament so far.
Though they won plaudits for their dynamic approach at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Berhalter's side can look uncomfortable when tasked with exercising control, and that was certainly the case on Thursday.
They managed only six shots in total, as Panama set a new national record for the lowest amount of attempts faced in a Copa America match. Their previous low was 12 shots, against Bolivia and Argentina in 2016.
Two of the four defeats that the United States have suffered as hosts in major tournaments have come against Panama.
The coach's changes – particularly the decision to sacrifice Giovanni Reyna for an additional defender in Cameron Carter-Vickers – did nothing to stem the tide.
By the time he changed tack by bringing on Josh Sargent for Tim Ream in the 86th minute, it was too late, with Jose Fajardo's close-range finish proving decisive.
Pepi's profligacy and Balogun's talents wasted
While the USA spent long periods sitting off Panama when down a man, they still had one huge chance to restore their advantage at 1-1, but substitute Ricardo Pepi saw his header kept out by Orlando Mosquera.
Pepi has only played 43 minutes off the bench at this year's Copa, yet his cumulative xG figure of 2.27 is the highest of any player at the tournament.
The five players directly below the goalless Pepi in the xG charts – Kendry Paez, Lautaro Martinez, Darwin Nunez, Solomon Rondon and Facundo Pellistri – have all netted at least once.
While the PSV striker could be forgiven for his wastefulness in the Bolivia match, when USA had already seized control before his second-half introduction, his form is starting to become a major worry.
The fact Pepi was introduced in place of goalscorer Balogun in Atlanta has brought further scrutiny upon Berhalter.
The Monaco forward is one of just four men to net more than once at this year's Copa America, and only the second USA player to score in successive Copa matches, after Clint Dempsey netted in three straight at the 2016 tournament.
Both of Balogun's goals have been pinpoint finishes from the left side of the penalty area, coming despite his xG total for the tournament standing at just 0.34. For context, that is a lower figure than that recorded by Harry Kane through England's first two matches at Euro 2024 (0.48), and the Three Lions' struggles in the chance-creation department have been well documented.
Convincing Balogun to switch allegiance from England in 2023 was considered a major coup for the USA, with his decision coming at the end of a season in which he plundered 22 goals while on loan at Reims from Arsenal.
At present, however, they are wasting their star striker, who has registered just eight touches in the penalty area at this tournament, having averaged 7.97 per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 last term.
Berhalter will hope Uruguay's expansive approach gives Balogun space to attack on matchday three, but without any level of control or the ability to play through the thirds, the striker will always be peripheral.
Similar failings have not yet cost England at Euro 2024, a set of lacklustre opponents and the 24-team format ensuring a group-stage exit was never really on the cards.
With one of South America's form teams next up and no second chances for third-place finishers, the same may not be true for the USA.
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
Rodri: Messi is the greatest player of all time, without any doubt
Manchester City and Spain star Rodri has suggested that Lionel Messi pipped Cristiano Ronaldo as the greatest footballer of all time.
The 28-year-old was recently awarded the 2024 Ballon d'Or as recognition for a period in which he won the Champions League in 2023 and Euro 2024 with Spain the next year.
Ex-Barcelona man Messi has won three of the last four Ballon d'Ors prior to Rodri, with the midfielder claiming that the latter is the greatest "without any doubt" during an interview on Spanish TV.
"Lionel Messi is the greatest player of all time, without any doubt. Cristiano has managed to match Messi without innate talent. But those of us who have played against them can see the difference," said Rodri, speaking to El Hormiguero.
"We didn’t want Cristiano to step into the box because he was lethal there. But with Messi, the danger was everywhere on the pitch."
Ronaldo has scored a total of 928 goals in his career for club and country, winning 34 major trophies including five Champions League titles. He has also won the Ballon d'Or on five occasions.
Messi, meanwhile, has scored 877 goals, won the Champions League on four occasions and the Ballon d'Or five times, most recently in 2023.
Messi is now at Inter Miami, while Rodri is recovering from an ACL injury at Manchester City, although the two faced each other in LaLiga during the midfielder's spells at Villarreal and Atletico Madrid before his Premier League move.
"When Messi got the ball, you’d think: 'Oh, danger'," he added. "When I first started playing against him, I tried to take the ball from him, and he dodged you as if you were a bull in the ring. The feeling I had was that something bad was about to happen."
Bompastor pleased with Chelsea's rotated side in 3-0 Champions League win over Celtic
Chelsea head coach Sonia Bompastor was delighted with her side's 3-0 home victory over Celtic in the Women's Champions League on Wednesday, which extended her 100% start and secured their place in the quarter-final.
Bompastor's side remain three points above Real Madrid at the top of Group B and can now no longer be caught by third-placed Twente.
"I told the players before the game tonight that it was an opportunity for us to qualify for the quarter-final, and we did that," she told the official club website after the game.
The result comes after a 2-0 victory over Manchester City in the WSL last weekend, which also has them top of that table with seven wins from seven.
"We also remain top of the table, which is also something we want to make sure we achieve. It's great news that we were able to rotate the squad and give opportunities to some players to play a Champions League game again.
"We could rest some players thinking about the Manchester United game [on Sunday]."
One of those players who got on the pitch as a result of that rotation was 17-year-old Lola Brown, who made her professional debut after coming off the bench in the 85th minute.
"It's a special week for her individually, but also for the club," Bompastor said. "I'm really pleased for her and the opportunity for her to come in, especially in a Champions League game.
"She's been training with us and I can see her talent, even if she is young. She's really dynamic as a player, really smart, and really good with the ball. She will progress and this experience tonight will bring her a lot of joy and a lot of confidence.
'As a manager, I worked a lot with the young players, especially when I was at the academy with Lyon, and it's also something special for me when I can give an opportunity to a young player to come in and show themselves. It's really good and shows the good job that the club is doing with young players.'
Aside from Brown, Bompastor made six changes to Chelsea's starting XI for the game and was pleased with the contribution of the players who came in.
"It's been my mindset from the beginning of the season. We play so many games and have to make sure everyone is involved. It's also the opportunity for me to show my trust in the players and the squad.
"It's important because it's not possible for a player to play 90 minutes every three days, especially with a lot of international players who play for their national team and club and travel all around the world. I think that's the way it has to be.'
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