The United States' home Copa America campaign was not supposed to come down to this.

Monday's Group C finale against Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay was expected to be a straightforward battle for top spot, with Panama and Bolivia, ranked 43rd and 84th in the world respectively, deemed unlikely to offer much of a threat.

However, a stunning capitulation saw Gregg Berhalter's side beaten 2-1 by Panama on Thursday, the hosts ceding control after Timothy Weah's early red card.

That result has had a seismic impact on their hopes of progressing, potentially leaving them requiring a win against one of the continent's finest next week.

The story of the USA's campaign to date has been one of unfulfilled potential, a lack of decisiveness in attack and a struggle to change things on the fly. It is a tale that might sound familiar to England supporters, who are watching the Three Lions rather limp through to the Euro 2024 knockouts.

Quarter-final hopes in the balance

Before a ball was kicked at this year's tournament, the Opta supercomputer gave the USA a 64.5% chance of reaching the last eight.

After Thursday's result, they are assigned a 51% probability of advancing, as anything less than a victory over Uruguay – who will not rest on their laurels as they bid to clinch top spot – will leave them needing a favour from Bolivia in their match with Panama.

Though the USA could still top the group with a win, third (49%) is now viewed as their most likely final position, which would represent a monumental failure at a tournament viewed as a dress rehearsal for a home World Cup in 2026.

But where has it all gone wrong?

USA follow England's lead 

The USA were clearly superior in their opening 2-0 win over Bolivia, firing off 20 shots worth 2.51 expected goals (xG) and recording 35 touches in the area to their opponents' one.

While Weah's early red card – the result of a petulant push to the back of Panama player Amir Murillo's head – put them in a difficult position in Thursday's second match, that incident did not necessarily have to precipitate such a dire collapse.

Indeed, four minutes after Weah's exit, their frustration turned to elation as Folarin Balogun fired a brilliant left-footed finish in off the woodwork from the edge of the area. 

But much like England in their first two games at Euro 2024, the USA ceded control after assuming the lead, which was wiped out within four minutes by Cesar Blackman.

Home fans would surely have expected Panama to enjoy more of the ball while a man up, but the sheer extent to which they dominated was alarming.

Panama finished the match with a 74% possession share, the highest figure any CONCACAF team has managed in a Copa America match on record (since 2011), and the eighth-highest overall.

From the 19th minute onwards, the USA completed just three passes into the Panama penalty area, recording a dismal 59.4% passing accuracy throughout the match – comfortably the worst figure at the tournament so far.

Though they won plaudits for their dynamic approach at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Berhalter's side can look uncomfortable when tasked with exercising control, and that was certainly the case on Thursday.

They managed only six shots in total, as Panama set a new national record for the lowest amount of attempts faced in a Copa America match. Their previous low was 12 shots, against Bolivia and Argentina in 2016.

Two of the four defeats that the United States have suffered as hosts in major tournaments have come against Panama.

The coach's changes – particularly the decision to sacrifice Giovanni Reyna for an additional defender in Cameron Carter-Vickers – did nothing to stem the tide. 

By the time he changed tack by bringing on Josh Sargent for Tim Ream in the 86th minute, it was too late, with Jose Fajardo's close-range finish proving decisive. 

Pepi's profligacy and Balogun's talents wasted

While the USA spent long periods sitting off Panama when down a man, they still had one huge chance to restore their advantage at 1-1, but substitute Ricardo Pepi saw his header kept out by Orlando Mosquera. 

Pepi has only played 43 minutes off the bench at this year's Copa, yet his cumulative xG figure of 2.27 is the highest of any player at the tournament. 

The five players directly below the goalless Pepi in the xG charts – Kendry Paez, Lautaro Martinez, Darwin Nunez, Solomon Rondon and Facundo Pellistri – have all netted at least once.

While the PSV striker could be forgiven for his wastefulness in the Bolivia match, when USA had already seized control before his second-half introduction, his form is starting to become a major worry.

The fact Pepi was introduced in place of goalscorer Balogun in Atlanta has brought further scrutiny upon Berhalter.

The Monaco forward is one of just four men to net more than once at this year's Copa America, and only the second USA player to score in successive Copa matches, after Clint Dempsey netted in three straight at the 2016 tournament. 

Both of Balogun's goals have been pinpoint finishes from the left side of the penalty area, coming despite his xG total for the tournament standing at just 0.34. For context, that is a lower figure than that recorded by Harry Kane through England's first two matches at Euro 2024 (0.48), and the Three Lions' struggles in the chance-creation department have been well documented. 

Convincing Balogun to switch allegiance from England in 2023 was considered a major coup for the USA, with his decision coming at the end of a season in which he plundered 22 goals while on loan at Reims from Arsenal.

At present, however, they are wasting their star striker, who has registered just eight touches in the penalty area at this tournament, having averaged 7.97 per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 last term.

Berhalter will hope Uruguay's expansive approach gives Balogun space to attack on matchday three, but without any level of control or the ability to play through the thirds, the striker will always be peripheral.   

Similar failings have not yet cost England at Euro 2024, a set of lacklustre opponents and the 24-team format ensuring a group-stage exit was never really on the cards.

With one of South America's form teams next up and no second chances for third-place finishers, the same may not be true for the USA.

Christian Pulisic stole the show with an eye-catching strike and another assist as the United States opened their Copa America campaign with a 2-0 triumph over Bolivia on Sunday.

Gregg Berhalter's side never appeared troubled in a routine victory at AT&T Stadium in Texas, thanks to the solo endeavours of captain Pulisic in their Group C opener.

The Milan forward needed just three minutes to curl in a sublime opener before teeing up Folarin Balogun – who another strike ruled out after the interval – just moments before the break in a one-sided first half.

Bolivia rarely seemed likely to forge a comeback as the USA managed a winning start to a Copa campaign for the first time since the 1995 edition when they defeated Chile 2-1 in Uruguay.

Antonio Carlos Zago's side did not heed an early warning when goalkeeper Guillermo Viscarra was forced to rush out and clear in front of Balogun.

Bolivia were caught napping just minutes later as Timothy Weah worked a short corner with Pulisic, who coasted inside before curling into the top-right corner from an acute angle on the left-hand side of the area.

Weah – son of legendary forward George – was denied from point-blank range as the USA almost doubled their lead immediately.

Yet Berhalter's host nation would soon add to their advantage in Arlington.

Pulisic was afforded the freedom of midfield yet again, dropping into space before offloading for Balogun to cannon a left-footed drive into the bottom-right corner.

That smart 44th-minute finish marked Balogun's first-ever goal at this tournament and the Monaco striker found the back of the net for a second time after the interval, only for his celebrations to be cut short.

His routine tap-in from inside the six-yard area was ruled out for offside as Weah had rushed forward to capitalise on Weston McKennie's pass before sliding across for his attacking partner.

Viscarra was equal to Pulisic's effort before the hour as the forward attempt to recreate his early heroics, while substitute Ricardo Pepi prodded wide from Antonee Robinson's pinpoint left-wing delivery.

Pepi was denied by fine Viscarra reflexes late on as the USA coasted to an opening victory before their next meeting with Panama on Thursday, a day before Bolivia face Uruguay.

Pulisic stars in rare USA win

Pulisic was tipped by many as the USA player to keep an eye on at the Copa America, and the Milan man delivered in emphatic fashion in this opener.

Fresh off the back of scoring 15 goals across all competitions for the Serie A giants, Pulisic's opening strike had an expected goals (xG) tally of just 0.037 – yet that was no problem for the USA captain.

His headline-worthy effort halted a woeful run for the USA against CONMEBOL sides at this tournament as well given Berhalter's side had previously lost eight of 10 such games.

Victory also marked the USA's first Copa triumph over Bolivia in just their second attempt, avenging for a 1-0 defeat way back in 1995 when Marco Etcheverry scored the winner.

Bolivia wait goes on

Bolivia were seeking a win against a CONCACAF opponent in Copa action for the first time since the 1997 edition.

They defeated Mexico 3-1 in the semi-finals of the tournament they hosted 27 years ago, though a wait for another such victory must continue after a drab showing in Texas.

Carlos Zago won this competition as a player with Brazil in 1999 but his side have a long way to go if they are to even escape their group in the USA.

Bolivia have now lost their last four international outings by a concerning margin of 9-1, having suffered defeats against Mexico, Ecuador, Colombia and the USA.

Monaco's sporting director Thiago Scuro believes the Ligue 1 club is the perfect place for Folarin Balogun to "reach the next level".

Balogun joined Monaco in a move potentially worth £34.4million in August, with Arsenal electing to cash in on the United States forward.

Speaking to Stats Perform at the Thinking Football Summit in Porto, Scuro outlined his confidence that Balogun and Monaco will be the perfect match.

"He's a young and top-talented striker, who had a very strong season in Ligue 1 last season," Scuro said.

"So he's fully adapted to the league, and [we are] fully confident about what he can do in the league. Now it's our job to help him reach the next level in his career, as he is recently an international for the US.

"He's a young player with an Arsenal academy profile, which [means] he brings very, very good and strong skills with him."

Balogun, who came on from the bench to make his Monaco debut in a 3-0 win over Lens on Saturday, is set to compete with Wissam Ben Yedder for a starting spot.

"We are excited to have him on board competing now with Ben Yedder, who is a legend at the club and the top scorer," Scuro added.

"Internal competition is one of the concepts that I truly believe [is key] for success."

Balogun netted 21 goals in 37 Ligue 1 appearances while on loan at Reims last season. Only Kylian Mbappe (29), Alexandre Lacazette (27) and Jonathan David (24) scored more times in France's top flight.

Monaco have enjoyed a flying start to the new season, winning three of their four Ligue 1 games. No team in Europe's top five leagues has scored more goals than the 13 managed by Adi Hutter's side.

"I think the playing idea and Adi Hutter's playing style, which is very offensive, very aggressive when we don't have the ball, very aggressive when we have the ball, and the players' commitment to this, is, of course, also very key," Scuro said.

"Considering the quality of our players, we are going to score. The challenge is also that this model also drives you to be very exposed [defensively]. That's why defending together and working hard is important."

Despite Monaco's strong start, Scuro is not getting carried away.

"Of course, it is good to start in a good place and in a good position, because it brings confidence and brings good energy to the daily routine," he added.

"But it's only the beginning. What matters in football is how you finish, not how you start. So we are very happy to have a good start, but we also know that it's a long journey, with a lot to do, and we still have to improve our performance in so many areas.

"This is our focus. It has to be. Taking care of the details, which is going to make us stronger for the next stage."

Folarin Balogun has completed a permanent move to French club Monaco from Arsenal.

The PA news agency understands the deal for the 22-year-old United States forward is worth 40million euro (£34.3m) and also includes a sell-on clause of 17.5 per cent.

Monaco confirmed Balogun had signed a five-year contract until June 2028.

Balogun joined the Gunners aged 10 and developed through the club’s academy before signing a first professional contract in February 2019 and made his senior debut in the Europa League the following year.

In January 2022, Balogun joined Sky Bet Championship side Middlesbrough on loan and he spent last season in Ligue 1 at Reims, where he scored 21 goals.

A club statement from the Gunners read: “We thank Folarin for his contribution to Arsenal, through our Academy into the first team, and wish him the best of health and happiness in his new chapter at Monaco.”