On December 21, 2019, two new managers sat in the stands at Goodison Park, watching on as Everton hosted Arsenal.
Everton had just appointed Carlo Ancelotti amid Duncan Ferguson's full-blooded, temporary spell in charge after Marco Silva's sacking.
On the opposite side of the director's box, Mikel Arteta, who had been unveiled as Arsenal's new head coach a day earlier, looked down as Freddie Ljungberg took charge for the final time as interim boss. The match finished 0-0, both teams in need of reinvigoration and a sense of direction.
Arsenal have found that direction. Everton, it is safe to say, have not.
Arteta, of course, played for both clubs. A star of the David Moyes era at Everton, Arteta was "the best little Spaniard" the blue half of Merseyside knew, though the relationship was soured slightly when he left for Arsenal in 2011.
The former midfielder had been linked with the vacant Everton job when it became apparent he was ready to cut his teeth in management, though Arsenal always seemed the likely destination.
In fairness, while Farhad Moshiri, once an investor at Arsenal, and Everton's board have made numerous mistakes over the last several seasons, bringing in such an experienced, quality manager as Ancelotti seemed like a no-brainer.
Indeed, there were some suggestions it was Arsenal who had made the wrong call, going for the inexperience of youth (Arteta was only 37 at the time) when a proven, top-class winner in the form of Ancelotti was right there.
Arsenal would go on to finish eighth that season, while the Toffees ended in 12th. Yet just over three years later, Everton welcome Arsenal to Goodison Park again, and the contrast in their fortunes could not be more different.
While the Gunners sit five points clear at the top of the Premier League, Everton – now under the tutelage of Sean Dyche – are embroiled in a relegation scrap for the second season running. This time, though, it very much feels as if Moshiri and Co. might have pushed their luck too far.
Patience is a virtue
Arsenal supporters might be revelling in their title charge, but it would be fair to say that Arteta has not always had the backing of 100 per cent of the club's fanbase.
Despite leading Arsenal to FA Cup glory in his first half-season at the club (albeit no fans were at Wembley Stadium to witness it), Arteta was criticised in his first full campaign as the Gunners struggled to adapt fully to his approach.
Then there was his strained relationship with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, whose form fell off a cliff after he was rewarded with a lucrative new contract in 2020, and a move for free agent Willian that Arteta pushed hard for, only for the playmaker – now back in the Premier League at Fulham – to struggle.
Aubameyang's last appearance for Arsenal came, coincidentally, in the corresponding fixture at Goodison Park last term, when the Gunners surrendered a lead and lost 2-1 to a late Demarai Gray thunderbolt.
There was yet more scrutiny directed at Arteta and sporting director Edu when, with Arsenal having failed to add to their ranks in January last year, the 2021-22 season culminated in them losing out on Champions League football to rivals Tottenham.
A 5-1 home win over, you guessed it, Everton, on the final day did ensure they ended a campaign on a high, but the business Arsenal did in pre-season has been transformative, and Arteta seems to have finally and firmly got his message across.
Arsenal head to Goodison Park with 50 points, 35 more than Everton, having lost just one league game all season. They have scored 45 goals, second only to Manchester City; Everton, on the other hand, collected the last of their three victories (the lowest total in the top flight) on October 22, and have netted just 15 times in 20 games.
While Arsenal are reaping the rewards for the patience shown in Arteta – and, it must be noted, large financial backing, too – Everton are paying the price for flitting between managers and chaos in the upper echelons at the club.
A club in chaos
Even with Arsenal flying high, Everton could have cause for optimism heading into this match. They have, after all, won three of their last four Premier League games against Arsenal, as many as they had in their previous 26 against them, and that includes two successive home defeats last season and in the 2020-21 campaign.
They last won three home league fixtures in a row against the Gunners between March 1977 and August 1978, but the chaos of the last month, which has somehow surpassed even the disarray of January 2022, when Rafael Benitez was allowed to sell Lucas Digne before being sacked himself and replaced two weeks later by Frank Lampard, has drained any air of optimism that might come with a new manager.
Lampard was sacked on January 23, less than a year into the job following a 2-0 defeat at West Ham two days prior. In a summary of the level of dysfunction at Everton, the club did not officially confirm Lampard's sacking until over five hours after it was briefed to media outlets.
On the same day, Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher labelled the Toffees "the worst run club in the country" – it's hard to argue with that assessment.
While Lampard, with a meagre 23.7 per cent win ratio in the league, can have few complaints over his dismissal, that dysfunction was clear again in the managerial search that followed. Marcelo Bielsa was the owner's preferred candidate and even flew into London for talks, reportedly offering to take over the club's under-21s in view to taking charge of the first team at the end of the season.
Dyche, a polar opposite in terms of playing style, was appointed instead, though even that announcement dragged on into Monday.
The hope will be that Dyche can steady the ship, though he has already suffered a blow, with Everton – who are said to have targeted up to 14 players in a last-ditch scramble on deadline day following the £45million sale of Anthony Gordon to Newcastle United – the only Premier League club that failed to make a signing in January, when reinforcements were evidently required.
Arsenal, on the other hand, could not get their first-choice acquisitions (Mykhaylo Mudryk and Moises Caicedo) through the door, but boosted their ranks with Leandro Trossard, Jakub Kiwior and Jorginho.
Forks in the road
With Arteta's links to Everton, it's hard not to make direct comparisons, especially with the start of his Arsenal tenure coming right after that goalless draw back in 2019.
Arteta's first game in charge of Arsenal was a 1-1 draw against Bournemouth on Boxing Day, 2019. He has now overseen 115 top-flight matches as Gunners boss, winning 65, losing 32 and drawing 18.
That 56.5 per cent win ratio is far better than any of the three permanent Everton managers that have immediately proceeded Dyche.
Ancelotti won his first match, against Dyche's Burnley, on the same day as Arsenal drew with Bournemouth, and despite a flying start to his one full season in charge in 2020-21, even he could not guide Everton to European football.
He left for Real Madrid with a 43 per cent win record (25/58) in the league, having taken 1.5 points per game, not far off Arteta's 1.85, but far better than Benitez's 1.0 or Lampard's 0.9.
In the same timeframe, Dyche oversaw 88 Premier League matches at Burnley, winning 22 (25 per cent), drawing 27, losing 39 and averaging 1.1 points per game.
Dyche's overall win percentage across his 258 top-flight matches is 27.9, though his Clarets side did tail off in his final seasons, prior to his dismissal last April.
Only against City (11) has Dyche lost more Premier League games than he has to Arsenal (10), who would become the first team in English league history to register 100 wins against a specific opponent should they triumph.
Arteta has lost three of his five matches against his old club as a manager, so it's no sure-fire guarantee for Arsenal, but Dyche has an unenviable task on his hands... not just on Saturday, but in the coming months.
Ancelotti to continue coaching 'until the fire dies down'
Carlo Ancelotti has no plans to call time on his illustrious coaching career, saying he will only leave the sport when he no longer feels nervous ahead of games.
Ancelotti is one of the most decorated coaches in European football history, with his five Champions League titles as a manager being a competition record.
The fifth of those triumphs came with Real Madrid in June as they beat Borussia Dortmund in the final at Wembley Stadium, having progressed through a series of dramatic ties earlier in the tournament.
Los Blancos overcame Manchester City on penalties in the quarter-finals despite facing 33 shots on their goal in the second leg, a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium.
They then salvaged victory from the jaws of defeat in the last four as Joselu scored twice – in the 88th and 91st minutes – to stun Bayern Munich at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Ancelotti so often appears an island of calm amid the chaos, but the Italian insists he still gets nervous ahead of big games and will do so until the day he retires.
"A life without pressure or a little stress does not exist. Too much stress, no, but a little is fuel. The day I don't have excitement before a match is the day I have to stop," he said at the Mexico Siglo XXI event.
"Before a match there is worry, there is a negative feeling thinking that it will not go well, that they will score a goal… When the match starts, everything stops.
"So, you have to look for calm to handle the situations of the game. I will continue coaching until the fire I have for football dies down.
"Some great things have happened in my life, some difficult moments. My life has been normal. I have been lucky to have a job that is my passion. I am grateful to football for giving me that opportunity.
"I still get nervous before a match, I feel pressure, and as long as that doesn't change I will continue here. I see myself coaching for a long time, yes."
Ancelotti is known for involving his big-name players in his decision-making, and he says that collaborative approach has been key to his success.
"It is very difficult to explain what a leader should be like. It is much more important to convince than to impose your opinion on them," he added.
"A leader must have the ability to listen to those who work with you. They can always give you ideas that can help you.
"It is important to listen and not think that you know everything because you are the boss. You can always learn."
Numbers Game: Ex-Irish international Carsley out to prove England credentials in Dublin
England will play their first match without Gareth Southgate in the dugout when they take on the Republic of Ireland.
Southgate quit his post in the wake of England's 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024 in July.
That ended a hugely successful eight-year stint for Southgate when it came to turning around the fortunes of the Three Lions, and restoring England's pride in the national team.
Yet for all the promise and potential, England could not get over the line when it truly mattered, falling short in two Euros finals, and a World Cup semi-final.
England had endured a miserable Nations League campaign before their exploits in Germany, and in hindsight, it showed that perhaps Southgate's magic was wearing off.
Now in League B, having been relegated from League A, England's first match after Southgate sees them face an old rival, as former Ireland international Lee Carsley aims to prove his credentials to the Football Association (FA).
Having won last year's Under-21 Euros, Carsley will surely be hoping he can follow in Southgate's footsteps in transferring from the youth set up to the senior side.
Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Saturday's clash in Dublin.
What's expected?
It's always hard to fully gauge what a team will look like under a new manager, especially in international football.
That being said, while we do not quite know what Carsley's England will look like, we can be sure that they are the favourites for this one, with Opta's supercomputer handing them a 70.4% win probability.
Ireland, on the other hand, have been given just a 13.2% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 16.5%.
This is England's first game without Southgate in charge since a 1-0 win over Slovakia in September 2016 in Sam Allardyce's one and only game.
Including caretakers, only four managers have lost their first game in charge of the Three Lions: Alf Ramsey (2-5 vs France in 1963), Howard Wilkinson (0-2 vs France in 1999), Peter Taylor (0-1 vs Italy in 2000) and Stuart Pearce (2-3 vs Netherlands at the 2012 Olympics when coaching Team GB).
It is fair to say Carsley, who played 40 times for Ireland between 1997 and 2008, has history on his side. Will he continue those strong records?
New blood
Carsley, as expected, freshened up his squad with some new faces. Angel Gomes, Morgan Gibbs-White, Tino Livramento and Noni Madueke all made the cut.
Gomes, Gibbs-White and Madueke made 50 appearances combined for Carsley in the U21s, so it is not a huge surprise to see the trio given a shot, while Livramento has usurped Kieran Trippier, who has now retired from international football, at Newcastle United this season.
At last year's U21 Euros, Carsley's team scored 11 goals in six games, outperforming their 8.5 expected goals (xG) and, despite not dominating possession, averaging 56.4%, they scored the most build-up goals at the tournament (seven) - a build-up goal is an open play sequence that features 10+ passes and ends in a goal.
Given England performed so poorly, relative to the quality at their disposal, in attack at Euro 2024, perhaps Carsley's approach can help get the best out of that star-studded frontline, albeit Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have all withdrawn from the squad.
Indeed, England have scored just 13 goals in 11 games in 2024, having netted 26 in 10 games in 2023. Their 2024 average of 1.2 goals per game is their lowest in a year since 2000 (exactly one per game, 11 goals in 11 games), so Carsley has a relatively low bar to improve on.
What about the defence, though? Southgate was a pragmatic manager, and in fairness, England only allowed 7.3 xG against through their seven matches at Euro 2024.
However, they have shipped the opening goal in each of their last four matches, all in the knockout stages in Germany (W2 D1 L1). The Three Lions have not conceded the opener in five games in a row since between November 1953 and June 1954.
And going back to that U21 Euros, Carsley's side did not concede a single goal, albeit the xGA metric suggests they should have conceded at least seven.
While the fresh faces in England's squad will be looking to stake a claim, Jack Grealish has been handed a reprieve after missing out on Euro 2024. And, right at the top of the pitch, there is the experience and world-class finishing ability of Harry Kane, who is closing in on his 100th cap - should he play in Dublin, that will be appearance number 99 for his country.
Ireland's new era
It is not just Carsley that is making his bow in the dugout on Saturday. Heimir Hallgrimsson is Ireland's new boss, with the former Jamaica and Iceland coach having been appointed earlier in the summer.
Hallgrimsson has previous with England, of course. He was in joint charge of Iceland when they knocked Roy Hodgson's Three Lions out of Euro 2016.
The only manager to defeat England with two different nations is Bora Milutinovic, in 1985 with Mexico and in 1993 with the United States.
And what better way to start a new era than a big win over a big rival?
This is the first time Ireland will host England since a goalless draw in a friendly in June 2015. In a competitive match, it is the first time since a November 1990 European Championship qualifier, drawn 1-1 with Tony Cascarino cancelling out David Platt's opener for the Three Lions.
England also won their last meeting with Ireland in November 2020 – they have not won consecutive games against them since doing so with wins in 1980 and 1985.
Ireland last beat England in 1995, though the sides have only met each other three times since, with two draws and one win for England: that 3-0 triumph in 2020.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Republic of Ireland - Evan Ferguson
Ferguson could not quite get going last season after a bright start for Brighton, but he is still one of the Premier League's most exciting youngsters.
The striker is Ireland's big hope going forward and will be out to make his mark against one of the best teams in the world.
England - Harry Kane
Kane ranks 10th on the all-time list of England caps and has made 85 starts, playing 7,616 minutes, directly contributing to 83 goals (66 goals – an England record – and 17 assists). He averages 0.78 goals per 90, and 0.98 goal contributions per 90.
Indeed, Kane averages a goal every 115 minutes for his country, and he will surely be the key man for Carsley as the interim manager looks to capitalise on this audition.
The Rugby Championship: Springboks seek decisive victory over All Blacks
Round four of the 2024 Rugby Championship is almost upon us, taking us past the halfway stage of a competition so far dominated by South Africa.
The Springboks made it three wins from three games against New Zealand last time out, though they left it late as tries from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Grant Williams handed them a dramatic 31-27 victory at Ellis Park.
Heading from Johannesburg to Cape Town on Saturday, they know another victory would all but wrap up their first triumph in the competition since 2019, ending the All Blacks' five-year reign.
The world champions enter round four with an eight-point lead over New Zealand in the standings, with Argentina one point further back ahead of their second Test against Australia.
Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview this weekend's action, bringing you the best facts and figures from each game.
SOUTH AFRICA V NEW ZEALAND
At various points last week, it looked as though New Zealand were set to breathe fresh life into this year's Rugby Championship race.
The All Blacks held a 27-17 lead at one stage, but Ofa Tu'ungafasi's 69th-minute sin-bin put South Africa in the ascendancy and two late tries helped them claim victory in a re-run of last year's World Cup final.
It will now take an almighty collapse to stop the Springboks from getting their hands on the trophy. They are chasing a fourth straight Test win over New Zealand, last recording more successive victories against them between September 1937 and September 1949 (six).
The All Blacks, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three Test matches (one win) after only losing one of their previous nine (eight victories).
Last week's defeat was a particularly demoralising one for Scott Robertson's team, as even scoring four tries was not enough for victory. Prior to that game, the last time the All Blacks were beaten when scoring four or more tries was in August 2019 (47-26 v Australia).
The visitors will now be acutely aware of South Africa's resilience, and the Springboks have actually won their last three Tests in Cape Town despite trailing at half-time in two of them, having lost four such matches in a row prior to the start of this run.
South Africa face a nervous wait on the fitness of Siya Kolisi after he took a heavy blow to the cheek from Sam Cane last time out, delaying their team news announcement by two days to give their captain every chance of making it.
But regardless of who starts, they will bring plenty of physicality. The Springboks have crossed the gain line on 64% of their carries in this year's Rugby Championship – at least 6% more than any other team. Their tackles success rate of 89%, meanwhile, is also the highest in the tournament.
New Zealand will have to make the most of their opportunities, but they can take encouragement from their efficiency in the 2024 tournament to date. Their 22 line breaks are at least four more than any team, while their average of 3.6 points scored per attacking 22m entry is also the best in the competition.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
South Africa – Elrigh Louw
Louw has crossed the gain line from 73% of his 26 carries so far in the 2024 Rugby Championship. That is the highest rate of any player with 20 or more carries in the competition this year.
New Zealand – Caleb Clark
While the All Blacks were unable to get over the line against South Africa last week, Clark impressed with two tries, having failed to score versus the Springboks in three previous career appearances against them.
Overall, he has six tries in his last six Tests, scoring at least once in each of his last three.
ARGENTINA V AUSTRALIA
Australia finally got up and running in this year's tournament in round three, overcoming Argentina in another dramatic finale in La Plata.
Ben Donaldson kicked a last-gasp penalty as the Wallabies triumphed 20-19, and though a fifth Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship title is now surely beyond them, they could restore further pride this week by claiming back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since 2022.
Australia have now won four of their last six Test matches against Los Pumas (two defeats), though they have typically had to do things the hard way, not leading at half-time in any of the teams' last four meetings (two wins, two defeats).
Indeed, Argentina should be expected to keep things competitive again, having seen four of their last five Rugby Championship matches decided by margins of no more than eight points (two wins, three losses).
This will be the first time they have welcomed Australia to Sante Fe, where they will be desperate to improve on their underwhelming record. They have lost their last two games in the city, going down 30-12 to Wales in 2018 and 35-25 to England in 2017.
The hosts will again be looking to make the most of kick returns, having gained 423 metres from such situations in the Rugby Championship this year – 170 more than Australia, who rank second with 253m.
Australia, meanwhile, lead the tournament charts for turnovers won, with 16. The Wallabies have also registered 44 successful exits from their defensive 22m zone, with only New Zealand (47) recording more.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Argentina – Juan Martin Gonzalez
Gonzalez, alongside Australia's Carlo Tizzano, has made dominant contact on more tackles than any other player in the Rugby Championship 2024 (seven each).
Gonzalez has also crossed the line for a try in each of his last four Test matches against Australia, including for Argentina's sole score last week. He has gained 4.1 metres per carry in the Rugby Championship 2024, the best average among all forwards (minimum 10 carries attempted).
Australia – Rob Valentini
Valentini has been directly involved in four tries in his last four Test matches (three tries, one try assist), including going over Argentina last time out.
That is more involvements than he logged across his previous 27 Tests for the Wallabies prior to this span (three – two tries, one try assist).
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