EPL

Best defence in Europe carrying Newcastle cup bid and Champions League charge

By Sports Desk February 03, 2023

Many onlookers might have anticipated Newcastle United would soon be contending for honours with the backing of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, but few could have imagined the rapid rate of their improvement.

Just months removed from a Premier League relegation battle, Newcastle are through to the EFL Cup final and in position for Champions League qualification.

Yet this Newcastle team have not enjoyed their relative success to this point by playing in the same manner as Kevin Keegan's open, entertaining and erratic side of the 1990s.

Eddie Howe this week described Newcastle's class of 2022-23 as working "within the Kevin framework", but their best attributes go back further to their roots.

"Fortiter defendit triumphans" – triumphing by brave defence – reads Newcastle upon Tyne's motto. So effective was Newcastle's title-winning defence in the early 1900s, marshalled by captain Bill McCracken, the team's offside trap brought about a change in the rules.

When Sean Longstaff's double took the Magpies to a first final since 1999 against Southampton, it was not the only long wait ended in Tuesday's semi-final; Che Adams' riposte was the first goal Nick Pope had conceded since November 6 – also against Southampton.

Pope's sequence of 10 consecutive clean sheets in all competitions – the longest by a Premier League goalkeeper since Edwin van der Sar's run of 12 in 2008-09 – did not stretch to an 11th match, but his 16 for the season are the most in Europe's top five leagues.

Even including three goals conceded this season by Karl Darlow and Martin Dubravka, Newcastle have shipped just 15 in 27 matches, the fewest across the continent.

The best defence in Europe has been vital to Newcastle's progress.

Balanced back line

The Magpies' defensive record is even more impressive when considering only minutes in which Howe has used what is clearly now his strongest back four.

Sven Botman started the season on the bench, while both he and Fabian Schar were rested for Newcastle's sole league loss at Liverpool.

Botman is yet to taste defeat in 18 Premier League appearances, although he did play in an FA Cup reverse at Sheffield Wednesday when Schar was absent.

Of players in the top five leagues, nobody has played more minutes in all competitions this season without losing than Schar (2,055).

When Schar and Botman have been on the pitch alongside Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn, Newcastle have conceded only seven goals in 1,878 minutes – or one every three games.

Adams' stunner was the first first-half goal Newcastle had conceded since August 28, with that staggering stingy sequence still ongoing in the Premier League. At 16 matches, it is tied for the third-longest such run in the competition's history.

That statistic explains why Newcastle have trailed for just four per cent of the time the ball has been in play in their Premier League matches this season – the lowest rate in the competition.

There is a great balance to this back four. Schar, with his 1.4 interceptions per 90, is an aggressive, front-foot defender, while Botman tidies up behind. On the left, Burn is happy to tuck in as a third centre-back, allowing Trippier to get forward on the opposite flank and average 10.5 crosses per 90.

All four are dominant in the air – even the diminutive Trippier – and a big, powerful Newcastle side have won 55.6 per cent of their aerial duels this season, trailing only Manchester City (57.0 per cent) and Real Madrid (56.4 per cent) in that regard.

'The best in the world'

If there is one area in which the Newcastle defence is lacking, it is pace – but that is where Pope comes in.

His 27 keeper sweepings – measured when a goalkeeper anticipates danger and rushes off his line to either cut out a pass or close down an opponent – are the most in Europe.

And Pope's ability to read the game is especially impressive given how little he sees of the action.

Playing behind that mean defence and rarely involved in Newcastle's build-up play, Pope averages 30.6 touches per 90 – roughly half as many as Yann Sommer's Europe-leading 60.8. He faces only 3.0 shots on target per 90.

But when those chances do come, Pope intervenes unlike any other goalkeeper across the top five leagues. His 83.8 per cent save rate is the best of all keepers to make 10 or more starts in all competitions.

In the same group, only Kepa Arrizabalaga is preventing goals at a greater rate, according to expected goals on target data. Pope's saves have prevented 6.1 goals.

Despite a costly gaffe in his most recent England outing against Germany in September, Pope is one of only five keepers across Europe to start 25 club games this term without committing an error leading to a goal.

Bruno Guimaraes' recent description of his team-mate as "the best goalkeeper right now in the world" was perhaps hyperbolic, but the data does not disagree.

Defending from the front

Pope has already earned more clean sheets this season than he ever did in a single campaign at former club Burnley, but he and his defenders have been helped hugely by the way Newcastle set up, easing the pressure that was a constant presence at Turf Moor.

Some neutrals have not been quite so enthused by Newcastle's style of play, which has yielded six goalless draws in the Premier League – twice as many as any other team.

A high-profile 0-0 at Arsenal, in which Newcastle defended doggedly, established a narrative that this team are adverse to front-foot football.

However, Mikel Arteta recognised after that stalemate: "It is not the way they play. They have not set up like this against anyone else."

Newcastle's expected goals total of 33.7 is the fourth-highest in the Premier League this season, and their attacking intent usually forces opposition teams back, crucially keeping the ball away from their own goal.

The Magpies' attacks start 42.7 metres upfield on average, deeper only than three teams, and that high line – aided by Pope's sweeping style – contributes to Newcastle allowing the fifth-fewest opposition touches in their area, 21.2 per game.

Pope is a standout performer, but this incredible defensive effort has been achieved as a team.

If it can continue, so can a club-record 15-game unbeaten top-flight run and dreams of silverware and Champions League qualification between now and the end of the season.

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    Sean Longstaff says Eddie Howe's trust is allowing him to play his best football as Newcastle United go in search of a third straight Premier League win against West Ham on Monday.

    After a difficult period, Newcastle bounced back by beating Arsenal (1-0) and Nottingham Forest (3-1) to enter the international break eighth in the table, one point adrift of third-placed Chelsea.

    Longstaff returned to Newcastle's starting lineup for those matches after temporarily losing his place in their midfield, with Joelinton being pushed into the frontline.

    "The midfield group is really strong," Longstaff told BBC Radio Newcastle. "When you look around it's all internationals. It's just about trying to bring my strengths to the team.

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    Longstaff then continued: "The season we qualified for the Champions League, I tried to enjoy it as much as possible.

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    Opponents West Ham, meanwhile, are just five points clear of the relegation zone after signing off for the international break with a goalless draw against Everton, a result that followed on from a crushing 3-0 defeat at Forest.

    The Hammers' underwhelming start to the campaign has seen Julen Lopetegui's position questioned mere months after he took the reins, and he is demanding a complete performance next time out.

    Speaking to BBC Sport after the Everton game, Lopetegui said: "We had more chances than them. In the second half, we had more clear chances to win the game.

    "The first half was a gift for them. We lost 45 minutes. In the second half we did better, we were aggressive and had chances to win.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    Newcastle United – Harvey Barnes

    Only against Aston Villa (nine) has Barnes been directly involved in more Premier League goals than he has against West Ham (eight – six goals, two assists). 

    He has either scored or assisted in each of his last four against the Hammers (four goals, one assist), finding the net in each of the last three.

     

    West Ham – Michail Antonio 

    Only Wolves frontman Jorgen Strand Larsen (16) has made more hold-ups while retaining possession in the Premier League this season than West Ham striker Antonio (15). 

    Antonio is retaining possession with 71% of his hold-ups in the competition this term (15/21), the highest ratio of any player to attempt 10 or more. Lopetegui's side are likely to spend plenty of time under pressure on Monday, but he could provide them with an outlet.

    MATCH PREDICTION – NEWCASTLE UNITED WIN

    Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games and are looking to win three in a row for the first time since September 2023 – this is the sixth occasion since then that they have won twice in a row in the league.

    They have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games against West Ham (five wins, four draws) and are unbeaten in all five against the Hammers under Howe (two wins, three draws). They triumphed 4-3 when the sides last met at St James' Park in March.

     

    West Ham, meanwhile, have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 Premier League away games, conceding 66 goals (2.4 per game). 

    Indeed, in 2024, they have conceded more away goals in the top-flight (35) than any side.

    Lopetegui's men have also failed to score in their last two league games, as many as in their previous 14 beforehand. Only five teams have a worse difference between their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures than West Ham (-2.97) this term.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Newcastle United – 58.9%

    West Ham – 19.7%

    Draw – 21.4%

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    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

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    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

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    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

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    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

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  • Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills

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    Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.

    Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.

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    "Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.

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    "Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'. 

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    "Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences. 

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