Tennessee Titans

Under-fire Dan Quinn saw his men surrender a 16-point lead to lose 30-26 a week after a humiliating last-gasp loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

There were big wins for the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns, while the Tennessee Titans once more had Stephen Gostkowski to thank for a narrow victory over the Minnesota Vikings.

The New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers also won, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals playing out the first tie of the season.

FALCONS FELLED BY FOLES

Falcons coach Quinn looks to be in trouble after another fourth-quarter collapse by Atlanta, this time leading to a four-point loss to the Bears.

Nick Foles threw three touchdown passes in the final quarter, the latter connecting with Anthony Miller with two minutes remaining, as Chicago recovered from 16 points down to move to 3-0 for the season.

The Falcons are the first team in NFL history to blow a lead of 15 points or more in the fourth quarter and lose in back-to-back matches.

Matt Ryan was intercepted by Tashaun Gipson late on as a miserable day for the Falcons was compounded by the losses of Russell Gage (concussion) and Grady Jarrett (hip).

RAMS FALL SHORT IN SPECTACULAR COMEBACK, PATRIOTS SIX IN A ROW AGAINST RAIDERS

The Los Angeles Rams almost completed the third-biggest comeback ever in the regular season, only to be denied by a Tyler Kroft touchdown with 15 seconds remaining.

The Bills had squandered a 25-point advantage but were bailed out by Kroft's second of the game following good work from Josh Allen.

Elsewhere in the East, the Patriots moved to 2-0 at home as three touchdowns from Rex Burkhead led them to a 36-20 defeat of the Las Vegas Raiders.

TITANS BUOYED BY GOSTKOWSKI SIX APPEAL

The Titans downed the winless Minnesota Vikings 31-30 thanks to the boot of Stephen Gostkowski.

A career-high six field goals, including a 55-yarder with less than two minutes on the clock, helped to banish memories of some wayward kicking in his first two Titans outings.

Dalvin Cook rushed for a career-high 181 yards and scored for the Vikings, but they are 0-3 for the first time in seven years.

The Steelers are still perfect, though – they moved to 3-0 for the first time since 2010 by defeating the Houston Texans 28-21, Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns in a franchise-record 221st appearance.

Week 3 scores:

Atlanta Falcons 26-30 Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills 35-32 Los Angeles Rams
Cleveland Browns 34-20 Washington Football Team
Minnesota Vikings 30-31 Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots 36-20 Las Vegas Raiders
New York Giants 9-36 San Francisco 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles 23-23 Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21 Houston Texans

Gostkowski's 25-yard field goal with 17 seconds left secured a 16-14 win over the Broncos at Sports Authority Field on Monday.

It was otherwise a debut to forget for the four-time Pro Bowler, who became the first kicker to miss four kicks in his first game with a team since Dennis Partee did so for the San Diego Chargers in 1968.

Gostkowski missed from 47 yards in the first quarter, 44 yards before the first half ended and 42 yards in the third, with another attempt blocked by Shelby Harris.

It was the first time he has missed three field goal attempts in a game during a career in which he has gone an entire season missing fewer than four on five separate occasions.

"It's tough. It's a very fickle position. It's definitely an opportunity I didn't deserve but grateful that I got it for the team and the guys that went out there and busted their butt," he said.

"I really put them in a tough spot. You don't always get the chance to redeem yourself. I'm just happy the guys got to celebrate.

"I'm disappointed in myself, embarrassed and frustrated, but at the end of the day, we won, and luckily the guys are happy going home."

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel insisted he had no doubts over Gostkowski lining up for the game-winner even if the Broncos perhaps thought differently.

"Nope, and they did, obviously, because they weren't using the timeouts, they were banking on him missing," he said.

"We've all got to do our job. It's not just on one player. We'll get this stuff fixed. We've got a lot of faith in our players. We're excited to get out of there with a win - it's a tough place to play.

"It's like sitting there and being like, 'Well, it's been red 10 times on roulette, so I'm going to bet black because it's been red 10 times,' and it doesn't work that way.

"I just felt like we were going to be able to make the field goal and that was the right play. That's the proper way to approach it and everybody did their job on the last one."

The playoff picture is wide open and Week 13 action presents clashes between a number of sides who each boast a winning record this season.

Victories this week would provide a considerable boost for those teams' hopes of continuing beyond the regular campaign.

A huge divisional rivalry between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants is the pick of the action, while there is also a rematch from last season's AFC Championship game with the Kansas City Chiefs seeking redemption against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Stats Perform has delved into the numbers for those matchups along with some of Sunday's other big games.

New York Jets (7-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

The Jets head to Minnesota with an 8-3 record against the Vikings, though have lost the last two meetings – including a 37-17 loss in the last meeting in 2018, which marked the most ever points scored by the Vikings in this series.

Defensive strength has been key for the Jets this season, with last week's 31-10 victory over the Chicago Bears being the fourth time this year where they have held their opponents to 10 or fewer points – the last time they had such a sequence was five games in 2010, which was also their last season with a trip to the playoffs.

The Jets defense will be tested against the Vikings' aerial threat, however, with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen each catching touchdown passes in the Thanksgiving win over the New England Patriots – the ninth time each player has had a receiving TD in the same game, which marks the most of any NFL teammates since Jefferson's 2020 debut.

A win against the Jets would see head coach Kevin O'Connell join Jim Caldwell and Jim Harbaugh as the only men this century to earn 10 wins in 12 or fewer games to start their career as an NFL head coach.

Washington Commanders (7-5) @ New York Giants (7-4)

A series sweep for Washington last season was the franchise's first against the Giants since 2011, leaving the Commanders looking for their first win streak of at least three games against New York since a four-game streak that ended in 2000.

Four consecutive wins on the road have seen Washington hold their opponents to 54 points total in those contests, marking the first time they have won four straight road games while allowing fewer than 60 points since 2001.

The Giants head into the contest having lost their last five against divisional opponents, standing just 1-7 in that regard over the past two seasons. That makes them just one of two teams without multiple wins in divisional games over that span (also Denver Broncos, 1-8).

Saquon Barkley remains the biggest threat for the Giants and sits just eight rushing yards short of his third 1000-yard season, where he would join Tiki Barber (6), Rodney Hampton (5) and Joe Morris (3) as the only Giants with at least three such seasons for the team.

Tennessee Titans (7-4) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

Philadelphia host the Titans on the back of a six-game winning run against AFC opponents dating back to last season, matching the Eagles' longest such streak in franchise history.

Last time out against the Green Bay Packers, the Eagles scored a touchdown in four of their five trips to the red zone – with Philadelphia leading the NFL in touchdown efficiency in the red zone this season, scoring in 29 of 40 trips (72.5 per cent).

Tennessee, meanwhile, have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last three games, matching their longest streak since Mike Vrabel became head coach in 2018.

In the 20-16 loss to the Bengals last time out, Derrick Henry fumbled but was it was recovered. Of the 39 players with at least 200 offensive touches since the beginning of last season, Henry, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey are the only three to have not lost a fumble.

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Two meetings last season saw the Bengals win by three points in both contests, including in the AFC Championship game in Kansas City, with the Chiefs' last road win against the Bengals coming in 1984 – losing six straight since.

A 26-10 home victory against the Los Angeles Rams last week saw Travis Kelce catch his 12th touchdown pass of the season, with no other tight end having more than five this term. The largest all-time gap between a league leader and second place stands at six (Rob Gronkowski in 2011 and Antonio Gates in 2004).

The Bengals overcame the Titans 20-16 on the road last week, giving Cincinnati their first three-game winning streak of the season. Since 2018, they stand 3-34 when scoring 20 or fewer points in a game, but two of those wins have come against Tennessee.

Cincinnati have converted 78.1 per cent (25-for-32) of their third downs this season when needing fewer than four yards, the best mark in the league. However, they've also allowed opponents to convert such third downs at a 76.5 per cent rate (26-for-34), the worst record in the league.

Elsewhere…

The Miami Dolphins head to San Francisco with a 4-3 record on the road against the 49ers, the second-best such record by any team behind the Carolina Panthers (7-4).

The Los Angeles Rams host the Seattle Seahawks having won eight of the last 10 clashes between the two divisional rivals, with Seattle's last victory on the road in this matchup coming in Week 5, 2017.

An overtime victory over the Seahawks last week was the second in a row for the Las Vegas Raiders, having beaten the Denver Broncos in OT in Week 11. No NFL team has ever won three consecutive games in overtime going into the Raiders' latest battle with the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Dallas Cowboys host the Indianapolis Colts on the back of a four-game spell with at least 400 net yards, with only one longer streak in team history – running eight games in that regard in 2016.

Rodgers was honoured during Saturday's awards – on the eve of Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – as he added to his 2011 and 2014 MVPs.

The 37-year-old is now level with Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, Packers great Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas and Jim Brown with three Most Valuable Player honours – only Peyton Manning (five) has more in NFL history.

The Packers fell short in the NFC Conference Game, beaten by Super Bowl finalists the Buccaneers, but Rodgers still enjoyed a memorable campaign.

Packers star Rodgers amassed 48 touchdowns, five interceptions and a completion rate of 70.7 per cent this season.

His quarterback rating of 121.5 puts him second on the all-time list among qualifiers, behind only his 2011 campaign (122.5).

In total, Rodgers completed 372 of 526 attempts for 4,299 yards as the Packers topped the NFC North with a 13-3 record to clinch home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs for the first time since 2011.

Rodgers – a Super Bowl champion during the 2010 season – featured in his first NFC title decider at Lambeau Field, but the Packers fell to Brady's Buccaneers 31-26.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles Rams star Aaron Donald won the Defensive Player of the Year for a third time.

Pittsburgh Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt had been tipped to win the award, but Donald maintained his dominance, having also reigned supreme in 2017 and 2018.

Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski claimed the Coach of the Year award after leading the franchise to their first postseason victory in 25 years.

Not since the 1994 season had the Browns won a playoff matchup, until upstaging the Steelers before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round.

List of NFL Honors

Rookie of the Year: Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Defensive Player of the Year: Los Angeles Rams DL Aaron Donald
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Offensive Player of the Year: Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Washington DE Chase Young
Comeback Player of the Year: Washington QB Alex Smith
Coach of the Year: Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski
Most Valuable Player:Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Baltimore trailed 10-0 after the first quarter but scored 20 of the next 23 points in the playoff contest, including rushing touchdowns from Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins.

The 20-13 result was particularly sweet for quarterback Jackson, as the reigning NFL MVP had suffered defeats in his previous two playoff appearances with the franchise.

Having recovered from a 6-5 record just to seal a Wild Card spot, Harbaugh reflected on a memorable result that keeps alive hopes of a Super Bowl appearance this year.

"I'm going to tell you right now this is the best win. In perspective, it's going to be top five for sure, but right now, for me, this is the best win ever," the Ravens head coach told the media.

"Not just because of what was at stake, but because of the guys, because of what it meant to the team. What it meant to all of our guys.

"This may be the best win I've ever been associated with. Defensive effort - it was disciplined, it was eyes on your luggage, it was finishing, it was running to the ball, it was tackling.

"I thought our defensive line did a phenomenal job against their very good offensive line. We got them stopped a lot of times before they got started.

"It's a team effort across the board, it always is."

Harbaugh revealed the Ravens had given a game ball to Jackson, who finished the game with 179 yards passing and a further 136 on the ground.

He threw an interception early in the game that set up a Titans field goal but recovered from the setback, including producing a stunning 48-yard touchdown run in the second quarter that helped make it 10-10 at the half.

"It's the best run I've seen by a quarterback," Harbaugh said. "It just got us back in the game. We needed points at that point."

Baltimore outrushed their opponents by 236 yards to 51 - the 185-yard differential is the fourth biggest by a road team in a playoff game.

"It feels good. I knew we had the capability of doing that," Jackson - whose touchdown was the second-longest rushing score by a quarterback in NFL playoff history - told the media.

"There will always be naysayers, no matter what. It's one game at a time - I appreciate the win, a hard-fought team victory, because they played great as well."

The Titans earned an upset 28-12 victory on the road to earn a spot in the Conference Championships, with the top-seeded Ravens unable to cope with Tennessee's physicality.

Jackson has racked up sensational numbers in his first full season as a starter, becoming the first player to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards, while breaking Michael Vick's single-season rushing record for a quarterback.

But it just did not happen against the Ravens for Jackson, who ended with 21-of-59 passing for 365 yards and was intercepted twice.

Ravens coach Harbaugh has no concerns over 23-year-old Jackson in the long term, though.

"I won't have to say much to him. We will talk for sure and we will see where that conversation goes, just from a standpoint of two people talking," he told reporters.

"But I know how he's going to respond. He is going to respond by being extremely motivated and determined to improve as a football player.

"I think the strategy made between last year and this year are pretty indicative of that, and we expect him to get better. That's what he should do.

"It's simple – [for] him and everybody else. That's what we all should strive to do and I just know his character and who he is as a person. That's what he will be thinking about."

Jackson was pretty forthright with his own assessment, saying: "We just beat ourselves. I had a lot of mistakes on my behalf. Three turnovers, that shouldn't happen. But they came out to play."

When it was pointed out he is winless in the postseason, Jackson replied: "I don't really care about what they say.

"This is my second year in the league. Most people [aren't] able to bring it to the playoffs. I don't really worry about [what] people say. We're going to keep going [and] get ready for next year."

The reigning champions fell to a surprise 20-13 loss against the Tennessee Titans in Saturday's AFC wild-card showdown, which may prove to be Brady's final game with the Patriots.

Brady confirmed retirement was "highly unlikely" but did not indicate whether he would remain with Bill Belichick's side.

McCourty was not able to shed any further light on Brady's next move, but heaped praise on the 42-year-old's enduring influence.

"I don't know his future, that's really on him," the Patriots safety said. "But I will say, from my second year being able to be a captain and sitting in those meetings and just hearing how he looks at the game, not just from a quarterback position but overall the game and hearing his input each week when we got ready to go on Friday mornings, taught me a lot as a leader.

"[It] taught me a lot from just understanding the game of football and how he looked at the game and the dedication and the preparation he put in.

"I got to learn that from Friday mornings at 7am, for nine years straight, I got to do that.

"Just the conversations I've had with him throughout the years has made me a better player. It's hard to imagine Tom not playing football; it’s hard to imagine him not playing here.

"But the business of football is what it is. No matter what, in my 10 years here to be able to learn from him and go against him, and from time to time intercept him at practice, has made me a way better player.

"I've appreciated everything he's done for me and trying to help me out along the way."

Henry achieved the milestone during the Titans' 41-38 victory over the Houston Texans on Sunday.

He rushed for 250 yards and two touchdowns in the win, which saw the Titans clinch the AFC South for the first time since 2008.

Henry joined Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Chris Johnson and O.J. Simpson in reaching the figure in a season.

Sam Sloman's 37-yard field goal with seconds remaining gave the Titans their win.

The season has so far been defined by close finishes. Through three weeks, there have been 18 games decided by three points or fewer this season, the most such games through the first three weeks of a season in NFL history. 

A packed crowd at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will hope to see another tight game as the NFL returns to London with the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings facing off.

The Washington Commanders travel to face the Dallas Cowboys in a fierce rivalry and the Philadelphia Eagles will look to extend their winning streak against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

With plenty more on the agenda, Stats Perform has used its data to preview this week's games.

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) @ New Orleans Saints (1-2)

A high-scoring affair should be on the cards in London, as the Vikings and Saints have put up 700 points (53.8 per game) over their last 13 regular season matchups dating back to 1995 – more than any other game with at least a dozen meetings.

The Vikings are in very capable hands with Kirk Cousins, who has a career passer rating of 126.7 against the Saints in the regular season, the highest by any QB against a single opponent in the Super Bowl era (minimum 125 attempts).

However, they face a Saints defense that has held opponents to fewer than 250 passing yards and one touchdown pass for nine straight games, a franchise record, while the only team in the last 10 years to enjoy a longer streak was the New England Patriots in 2019.

Chris Olave boasts 268 receiving yards in his first three career games but is yet to score a touchdown, a record which stands as the most since Charlie Wade's 315 yards without a TD in his first three games for the Chicago Bears in 1974.

Washington Commanders (1-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys host the Commanders having won both matchups last season, including a 56-14 triumph in Week 14 that stands as the highest margin of victory for either team in the all-time series.

With six sacks in the Week 2 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals and five sacks last weekend against the New York Giants, the Cowboys have recorded five or more sacks in consecutive games for the first time since a four-game streak in November/December 2008.

That will be of particular concern to Carson Wentz, who was sacked a career-high nine times in the Commanders' home loss to the Eagles last week – the most of any QB for the franchise since John Beck was sacked 10 times by the Buffalo Bills in 2011.

Fourth-quarter offense has been a highlight for Washington, though, totalling 455 scrimmage yards (342 passing, 113 rushing) and standing third in the NFL for the most fourth-quarter yards in 2022 behind the Saints (541) and the Indianapolis Colts (456).

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

The only 3-0 side to play on Sunday, the Eagles have held the Jaguars to under 20 points in the last four matchups between the two sides stretching back to 2006, tied for the second-longest active such run for Philadelphia behind the six-game streak against the Jets.

In the past two weeks, the Eagles have kept their opponents to under 10 points (8 vs Washington, 7 vs Minnesota) and are the only NFL team this season to achieve the feat in consecutive games, while Philadelphia last went three in a row in that regard in 1980.

The Jaguars are 2-1 at the start of the season for the first time since 2018 and have scored 84 points, the third-most by the team in the opening three games of the season in franchise history (98 in 1997 and 89 in 2017).

Both teams rank in the top five in the NFL for total first downs this season, with the Eagles (73) third and the Jaguars (70) fifth.

Elsewhere…

The Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the Houston Texans having being held to just 26 yards on the ground against the Jaguars last week and have 177 rushing yards in the NFL this season, the fewest in three games in team history.

A total of 572 rushing yards this season places the Cleveland Browns as the NFL's best on the ground this season and they visit the Atlanta Falcons having amassed their highest total through their first three games of a campaign since 1963.

The Seattle Seahawks tackle the Lions boasting seven wins in the last eight matchups against Detroit dating back to 2003, the third-best record by an NFC team against a conference opponent over the past 20 seasons.

The Titans have won each of the last three games against the Colts, including a 34-31 win in overtime last season. A victory this weekend would make this Tennessee's outright longest winning streak against Indianapolis (also three straight wins between 1988 and 1992).

Mahomes starred in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, throwing three touchdowns and rushing for a sensational 27-yard score to help the Chiefs clinch a 35-24 victory.

Kansas City will now face either the San Francisco 49ers or the Green Bay Packers in their first Super Bowl appearance in 50 years and tight end Kelce was in the mood to celebrate.

The 30-year-old interrupted Mahomes' post-game interview with broadcaster CBS to boisterously praise the reigning NFL MVP.

"This is the best quarterback in the National Football League right here, baby," Kelce said.

"And he shows it every time! Humble as can be. I f****** love you!"

Mahomes went 23 of 35 for 294 passing yards as he became the first player in the team's history to record multiple passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in a postseason game.

The two-time Pro Bowler called the victory a vindication of the Chiefs' willingness to succeed in any manner necessary.

"I knew going into the NFL I was going to do whatever it took to just win games," Mahomes said.

"You can see that in every single player on this team. We don't care if we win 10-7 or 35-24. We're just going to go out there and find a way to win the football game, whatever it takes."

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

Since becoming the Titans' first-choice quarterback, Tannehill has not missed a game for Tennessee.

However, earlier this week Tannehill was noted as questionable due to an ankle injury sustained against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 and it was later confirmed he was also struggling with illness.

On Saturday, Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network confirmed Tannehill has been downgraded to out and will not travel with the team to Texas.

Tannehill has completed 95 of 146 passes and thrown for six touchdowns for a Titans side who are 4-2 and top of the AFC South this season.

Willis will instead start under center for the Titans and he has been rep-heavy in practice with Tannehill unable to train.

His only action in the NFL came during Week 2 when the Titans were hammered 41-7 by the Buffalo Bills, with Willis completing one of four passes.

The 23-year-old was selected in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, and 86th overall.

Not since the 2020 season opener – a 27-20 victory against the Indianapolis Colts – have the Jaguars celebrated a win in the league as they are currently in the midst of the second-longest losing streak in NFL history.

After dropping to 0-5 this season, the Jaguars face the threat of breaking the record for the longest drought since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, which is held by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26 straight games from 1976 to 1977).

"You can't wrap your head around that," Jags running back James Robinson said afterwards. "We've got to find a way to win.

"We're a really good team. Obviously, our record doesn't show it, but we've got a lot of great guys in the locker room and we've just got to find something that's going to work for us."

Jaguars rookie Trevor Lawrence threw a touchdown and an interception in finishing 23-of-33 passing for 273 yards and two sacks, while the number one draft pick rushed for a TD on seven carries.

"We don't really talk about that [losing streak]," Jacksonville quarterback Lawrence said. "I don't think that's good to talk about that. You can't get desperate. You've got to just keep going to work. We're going to win some games.

"We're going to turn it around, and we all thought today was the day we were going to get that first win and it wasn't.

"We didn't execute enough down the stretch, but we're going to figure it out. We're going to turn this thing around. It's going to be a lot of fun when we do. We want to win. All the guys.

"We've got so many hard workers and everyone's so invested. It's not a team where you've got guys that aren't really committed or don't care. Everyone's all-in, so it'll come."

The victory completes a remarkable turnaround for the Jags, who lost five straight earlier in the season yet rallied to 4-8, before securing five straight wins to top the division ahead of the Titans (7-10).

Tennessee scored the first 10 points of the game but the Jags hit the lead for the first time with 2:51 remaining in the fourth quarter when Rayshawn Jenkins forced a fumble from Titans QB Joshua Dobbs which Josh Allen scooped up for the go-ahead touchdown.

That TD marked a brilliant second-half performance by the Jags' defense, who had four sacks for the game, allowing only three points after trailing 13-7 at half-time.

Jacksonville clinched their fourth division title and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season, having only won four games in the previous two years.

Jags QB Trevor Lawrence was not at his best but threw 20 of 32 passes for 212 yards, including a touchdown pass to Christian Kirk late in the second quarter. Kirk had 99 yards on six receptions.

The Titans had opened up a 10-0 lead from Dobbs' TD pass to Chigoziem Okonkwo with 5:32 left in the second quarter.

Dobbs completed 20 of 29 passes for 179 yards with one TD and one interception from Tyson Campbell, his third of the season, leading to Riley Patterson's field goal to make it 16-13.

Running back Derrick Henry ran for 109 yards on 30 carries for the Titans, who missed the playoffs after seven straight losses.

Jefferson was named second-team All-Pro last year in his second season in the league, and he showed against the Packers why many feel he could be the top wide receiver in the entire league.

He had three catches for 47 yards and a touchdown on the first drive alone, before going on to finish with gaudy figures of nine catches for 184 yards and two scores.

While Jefferson was the offensive star, the Vikings' defense was the reason they won the game, holding the Packers scoreless in the first half to head into the long break leading 17-0.

With Aaron Rodgers' former top target Davante Adams traded to the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason, he struggled to move the ball downfield. While Adams racked up 10 catches and 141 yards from 17 targets in his Raiders debut, no Green Bay receiver finished with more than Romeo Doubs' four catches for 37 yards from five targets, although running back A.J. Dillon did reach 46 receiving yards after some garbage-time action.

Coming off back-to-back league MVP awards, Rodgers finished a disappointing 22-of-34 for 195 yards, throwing one interception and no touchdowns. He was also sacked four times by the impressive Vikings pass rush, including one by former Packers edge rusher Za'Darius Smith.

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins enjoyed a clean start to the season, going 23-of-32 for 277 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, while top running back Dalvin Cook was strong with 20 carries for 90 yards.

Barkley announces return to form in Giants win

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley had not scored a touchdown since Week 4 of last season, but he found form again in style as he carried his side to a 21-20 win on the road against the Tennessee Titans.

Barkley, the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, had been questioned about if he would ever return to his best, but he looked like the old Barkley against the Titans as he piled up 164 yards and a touchdown from 18 carries, while adding six catches for 30 yards through the air.

As well as dominating through the middle stages of the contest, he also delivered in a big spot to decide the game, converting a two-point conversion after Daniel Jones threw what ended up being the game-winning touchdown with one minute to play.

The Titans got the ball back and worked their way into field goal range, but with a chance to hit a walk-off game winner, Randy Bullock pulled the 47-yard kick left to gift the win to the Giants.

Taylor was injured as the Colts' uneven start to the season continued with a 24-17 defeat to AFC South rivals the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

The defeat dropped the Colts to 1-2-1, with Indianapolis once again struggling to justify considerable offseason hype.

An extended absence for Taylor, who last year led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, would deal another substantial blow to the Colts' hopes of returning to the postseason.

NFL Media's Ian Rapoport calmed fears of Taylor being out for the long term, but pointed out that the tight turnround could make it difficult for him to feature in Week 5.

The Colts are only half a game back in the AFC South race, but another defeat to a conference opponent in the Broncos would leave them in a potentially much more significant hole.

For Taylor's part, he was unsure whether he would be healthy to feature in Denver.

He told reporters of his ankle injury: "It just tweaked up a little bit, but I'm feeling good now.

"It was a lot of commotion going on. Things just happen so fast on the field. It's crazy."

Asked about his status for the meeting with the Broncos, Taylor replied: "I'm not sure yet, but we'll see how things are tomorrow [Monday] morning."

As well as missing games, the 33-year-old showed signs of decline in his on-field play, finishing with career-low marks in yards, touchdowns, and receptions – both on a per-game basis and in total.

The trade to acquire Jones – which involved sending a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons – will go down as a painful one for the Titans in a draft stacked with exciting wide receiver prospects, many of whom will be available in round two.

Tennessee do still have one of the NFL's most exciting young receivers in A.J. Brown, who finished with 869 receiving yards and five touchdowns despite missing four games in 2021.

Jones' departure does, however, create a gaping hole behind Brown on the depth chart, signalling there will be some incoming help for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, either in the draft or in free agency.

Jones signed a three-year contract extension with the Falcons in 2019, reportedly worth $66million.

However, the two-time NFL receiving yards leader, who has called Atlanta home since being drafted sixth in 2011, wil join up with the Titans pending a successful medical. 

The full terms include Tennessee trading their 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round selection to Atlanta in exchange for Jones and a sixth-round pick in 2023.

Jones played in nine games last season after suffering a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for the majority of the second half of the campaign as the Falcons (4-12) finished bottom of the NFC South.

The 32-year-old caught 51 passes for 771 yards and three touchdowns in 2020.

Since entering the NFL with the Falcons, Jones has led the league in receiving twice (1,871 yards in 2015 and 1,677 yards in 2018) and three times in yards per game (2015, 2016 and 2018).

Overall, Jones has amassed 948 receptions for 12,896 yards and 60 touchdowns throughout his career.

Rookie third overall pick Lance was not able to win the starting quarterback job from Garoppolo, yet he still made his regular-season debut at Ford Field on Sunday, and he took his first snap with the Niners on the Detroit 16-yard line on their second drive of the day.

His second snap saw him hit Trent Sherfield for a five-yard touchdown pass and, though Detroit responded with Jared Goff connecting with tight end T.J. Hockenson, Garoppolo's 314-yard performance, which included a 79-yard touchdown throw to Deebo Samuel, scores on the ground from rookie Elijah Mitchell and JaMycal Hasty and a Dre Greenlaw pick-six appeared to have put the game beyond all doubt.

San Francisco led 41-17 with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, but a Jamaal Williams short-yardage plunge followed by a two-point conversion provided Detroit a glimmer of hope that grew brighter when George Kittle was unable to field an onside kick.

The Lions subsequently drove down the field and Goff found Quintez Cephus for a two-yard touchdown and another two-point conversion. They then had a chance to tie the game following a fumble from Samuel, but Detroit could not complete an incredible comeback to force overtime.

Samson Ebukam's pressure forced Goff into an errant throw, allowing the Niners to breathe a huge sigh of relief.

It was, however, a pyrrhic victory for San Francisco, who lost cornerback Jason Verrett to what head coach Kyle Shanahan believes is a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

Though the 49ers took defensive starters out of the game following Verrett's injury with what eventually proved an insurmountable lead, the ease with which the Lions moved the ball late in the game should be of concern to San Francisco, especially with two of their NFC West rivals enjoying excellent days.

The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks each won comfortably. Kyler Murray threw for four touchdowns and ran for another while defensive end Chandler Jones had five sacks in the Cardinals' easy 38-13 win over the Tennessee Titans, while Russell Wilson had four touchdown passes for the Seahawks as they saw off the Indianapolis Colts 28-16.

Steelers stun Bills

While not quite as dramatic as events in Detroit, the Pittsburgh Steelers' win over the Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park was certainly unexpected.

The Bills led 10-0 at the end of the first half, but Josh Allen was sacked three times as the Steelers held a usually explosive offense in check.

And, after a pair of field goals from Chris Boswell, Diontae Johnson's spectacular catch at the back of the endzone in the fourth quarter gave them a lead they would not relinquish.

Ulysees Gilbert III recovered a blocked punt to make it 19-10 Steelers, Mike Tomlin's men going on to close out a 23-16 win that deals an early blow to a Bills team seen as Super Bowl contenders.

Burrow makes winning return

Last year's number one overall pick Joe Burrow made his return from a serious knee injury in the Cincinnati Bengals' clash with the Minnesota Vikings, and it proved a successful one in a thriller at Paul Brown Stadium.

He connected with college team-mate Ja'Marr Chase, the fifth overall pick by the Bengals this year, for a 50-yard touchdown in the first quarter to give Cincinnati a lead that they eventually let slip late in the fourth quarter when Vikings kicker Greg Joseph tied matters at 24-24 with a 53-yard field goal.

That forced overtime, but a Dalvin Cook fumble in Bengals territory handed Burrow and the Bengals the chance to clinch it, and he did just that with a drive that set up Evan McPherson's 33-yard field goal and sealed a 27-24 success.

This year's number one overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, endured a very different day. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions as the Jacksonville Jaguars were beaten 37-21 by the Houston Texans.

Mahomes found Travis Kelce with 28 seconds remaining as Super Bowl champions the Chiefs prevailed against the Raiders in Las Vegas on Sunday.

The Indianapolis Colts completed a memorable comeback against the Green Bay Packers 34-31 following overtime, while Justin Herbert celebrated a career day for the Los Angeles Chargers.

MAHOMES PUTS ON A SHOW

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Mahomes was faced with a 31-28 deficit inside the final two minutes after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr threw a touchdown pass to Jason Witten.

Chiefs star Mahomes stepped up to the plate, leading a seven-play, 75-yard drive in 75 seconds with a 22-yard throw to Kelce as Kansas City (9-1) reigned supreme at the death.

Mahomes finished 34 of 45 for 348 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while he rushed for 16 yards on four carries.

Carr – who joined Russell Wilson as the only players in NFL history with 25,000 passing yards and fewer than 70 interceptions in their first seven seasons – was 23-of-31 passing for 275 yards, three TDs and an interception.

COLTS EDGE RODGERS AND PACKERS

It was not pretty but the Colts got the better of the Packers in Week 11.

Rookie kicker Rodrigo Blankenship nailed a 39-yard field goal to lift the Colts – who scored 20 of the final 23 points – past the Packers in OT, having trailed 28-14 at half-time.

Rodgers led the Packers (7-3) down the field in less than 90 seconds to level the game and force overtime in Indianapolis, where AFC South leaders the Colts (7-3) stayed ahead of the Tennessee Titans.

The result marked Philip Rivers' 13th career start in which his team rallied from 14-plus points down to win, per Stats Perform. It is the second-most 14-plus point comeback wins by a QB in NFL history, only behind Peyton Manning (16).

Rivers was 24 of 36 passing for 288 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while Packers counterpart Rodgers finished 27 of 38 for 311 yards, three TDs and an interception.

HERBETS SETS ROOKIE MARK

Chargers quarterback Herbert enjoyed a memorable outing as his team held off the beleaguered Jets 34-28.

Herbert – who was 37 of 49 for 366 yards and three touchdowns – became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for 350-plus yards while completing at least 75 per cent of his passes in a game, according to Stats Perform.

He also recorded his fifth game of three-plus touchdown passes this season – the most by a rookie in a season in the Super Bowl era, per NFL Research, as the Chargers condemned the Jets to a 0-10 record.

Herbert connected with Keenan Allen, who set a single-game Chargers record with his 16th reception in the fourth quarter, becoming the first of four wide receivers in the Super Bowl era with two career 15-plus reception games.

TUA BENCHED AS DOLPHINS LOSE

Tua Tagovailoa was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fourth quarter of the team's 20-13 loss to the Denver Broncos.

The Dolphins trailed 20-10 when Tagovailoa was benched, though Miami head coach Brian Flores said the rookie quarterback remains starter.

Tagovailoa – promoted following Week 7 – went 11-of-20 passing for 83 yards and a touchdown

"Tua wasn't injured. We just felt like it was the best move at that point of the game – we had to get in two-minute mode and we felt like [Fitzpatrick] gave us the best chance to win the game and we had an opportunity at the end to tie it," Flores said.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys snapped a four-game skid by topping the Minnesota Vikings 31-28 to move back into the NFC East race.

Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton and tight end Dalton Schultz connected for a touchdown in the win, marking the first TD pass in NFL history in which the passer's last name is an exact match with the receiver's first name, according to NFL Research.

Week 11 scores:

Tennessee Titans 30-24 Baltimore Ravens (OT)
Carolina Panthers 20-0 Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns 22-17 Philadelphia Eagles
Houston Texans 27-20 New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers 27-3 Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints 24-9 Atlanta Falcons
Washington Football Team 20-9 Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos 20-13 Miami Dolphins
Los Angeles Chargers 34-28 New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts 34-31 Green Bay Packers (OT)
Dallas Cowboys 31-28 Minnesota Vikings
Kansas City Chiefs 35-31 Las Vegas Raiders