San Francisco 49Ers

The Chiefs are reaping the rewards of trading up to land Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, going one better and reaching Super Bowl LIV in Miami after falling in the AFC Championship Game last year.

That was Mahomes' MVP campaign and his body of work across his two seasons as the starter - during which time he has thrown 9,128 passing yards and 76 touchdowns - suggest he might be the best quarterback in the game right now.

Few believed Mahomes could make such an impact prior to the 2017 Draft, yet Chiefs head coach Reid revealed Veach was convinced he was not just great, but the best ever.

"You knew he was going to be great," said Reid, whose team face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV this Sunday.  

"Brett Veach said it; he's our general manager. He said he's the greatest player he'd ever seen.

"That's quite a tribute to the kid. Now that I've been around him, and you've watched him play, he's pretty doggone good."

Such was Veach's confidence in Mahomes, the Chiefs packaged two first-rounders and a third to acquire the former Texas Tech signal caller.

His sensational arm strength, ability to throw from different angles, on the run and even without looking have ensured he has astounded in the professional ranks.

According to Tyreek Hill, that talent is coupled with a leader's mentality that reminds him of a wrestling great.

"There's this thing that he does on the sidelines. Almost like The Rock, when he smoulders," Hill added.

"Then he'll just like be serious, he'll be like 'Come on, guys, let's go, man' and get us turned up and get us fired up.

"Having him is definitely a blessing. He's a tremendous leader on and off the field. He leads by example, he's always working hard, trying to be the best.

"Pat is very different, man. Like you see most guys, you'll be like 'Man, he's very talented but he don't got the work ethic.' Well, Pat got both."

Though the Niners are viewed as the team with the vaunted defense, and the Chiefs the explosive offense, the reality is San Francisco scored more points per game during the regular season (29.9 to 28.2) while Kansas City allowed fewer (19.3 to 19.4).

To preview Super Bowl LIV, we used Stats Perform's advanced analytics and data analysis to profile the area where the game is likely to be won and lost - in the trenches.

SAN FRANCISCO'S FRONT FOUR v KANSAS CITY'S OFFENSIVE LINE

The Chiefs have aired the ball out on offense over the past two postseasons, and Patrick Mahomes' career playoff passer rating is 115.00 - the highest of all time among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts.

He might be slowed down if the Niners' front four can continue their excellent pass-rushing production across the regular season and playoffs, though.

According to Stats Perform's metric for adjusted pressure on pass-rush opportunities, rookie Nick Bosa has generated pressure 26.6 per cent of time this season - way higher than his expected pressure rate of 13.1 per cent.

Former Chief Dee Ford, used almost exclusively as a situational pass rusher, also performs well (26.1 per cent compared to an expected pressure rate of 12.4 per cent), while both DeForest Bucknerand Arik Armstead(19.8 per cent and 18.8 per cent) also way exceeded their expected pressure rate (10.8 and 11.5 per cent).

Mahomes' two tackles will therefore be key, and while one has excelled, the other has struggled.

Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has allowed pressures on only 6.23 per cent of his 369 pass-protection opportunities, having been expected to give up pressure on 10.74 per cent of those snaps.

Schwartz has performed way better than the Niners' two bookends Joe Staleyand Mike McGlinchey in the allowed pressures category (10.08 per cent and 10.73 per cent).

However, where Bosa et al may have more joy is against former first-overall pick Eric Fisher. The left tackle, who only played half of the regular-season games due to injury, allowed pressure on 17.50 per cent of his 160 pass-protection opportunities - considerably higher than any offensive lineman playing on Sunday.

Look for 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to attack the weakness on that Chiefs line - Mahomes' blindside.

SAN FRANCISCO'S RUSHING ATTACK V KANSAS CITY'S RUN STUFFERS

This postseason the 49ers have 44.5 rushing attempts per game - the most of any team in a single postseason since 1976. The Niners clearly want to run the ball. A lot.

The men tasked with clogging up gaps and making that a less-than-appealing strategy are Kansas City's defensive tackles Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi and Mike Pennel.

When it comes to Stats Perform's run-disruptions metric - which measures how often a player disrupts a designed run play - Jones and Pennel excel.

From his 184 run snaps, Jones has produced disruptions 27.2 per cent of the time, considerably more than his expected disruption rate of 15.3 per cent.

Pennel, who has proven to be a nice pickup since joining in October, produced disruptions on 27.3 per cent of his 55 run snaps, with Nnadi at 19.8 per cent.

When it comes to the 49ers' rushing attack, San Francisco tend to ride the hot hand. Matt Breida led the team in yardage on the ground in September, Tevin Coleman had that honour in October and November, and Raheem Mostert has been the most productive back in December and the postseason.

Mostert has had 194 touches of the ball in the regular season and playoffs - more than any other skill-position player involved at Super Bowl LIV.

He has forced missed tackles on 24.2 per cent of those touches, the second best among running backs in the NFL.

Should he be asked to carry the load in Miami, he may be advised to run away from Jones and Pennel.

The 49ers looked on track for a record-equalling sixth Super Bowl title as they carried a 20-10 lead into the final seven minutes at Hard Rock Stadium.

But Patrick Mahomes and Damien Williams led a Chiefs comeback as they scored 21 unanswered points to win their first title in 50 years.

A disappointed Shanahan, who was criticised for being too conservative during the loss, said it was a chance missed for the 49ers.

"We had opportunity to win that and we came up short. Win or lose, today doesn't change how I feel about our team," he told a news conference.

"I'm real proud of the guys, what they did all year, I'm proud of what they did today.

"Kansas City played a good game, they were better than us today and we can deal with that, but we're obviously pretty disappointed."

Jimmy Garoppolo had appeared to be guiding the 49ers to victory and the quarterback finished with 219 yards on 20 of 31 completed passes, with one TD and two interceptions.

Shanahan felt Garoppolo "played all right", instead lamenting the 49ers' inability to convert on third down in the fourth quarter.

"We didn't convert those third downs there in the fourth quarter," he said.

"When you don't convert those third downs and you don't get an explosive run, you end up giving them too many chances."

Plans to expand the fixture schedule have proved an obstacle in ongoing negotiations over a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

The existing deal expires at the end of next season and NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has insisted player welfare continues to be a priority amid "incredibly productive dialogue" with the NFL Players Association (NFLPA).

Sherman, an NFLPA vice-president, remains unconvinced, believing talks will drag on unless the league backs down.

"I don't think it's something the players are interested in, honestly," the San Francisco 49ers cornerback said ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs.

"If that's the point they're negotiating on, I think these negotiations are going to go a lot longer than anticipated.

"It's odd to me, and it's always odd, when you hear player safety is their biggest concern. And they're really standing up for player safety, player safety, player safety, but it seems like player safety has a price tag.

"Player safety up to the point of hey, 17 games makes us this much money so we really don't care how safe they are, if you're going to pay us this much money to play another game.

"That's the part that's really concerning for us as a union and us as players. They think that players have a price tag on their health and I don't think we're in the same ball park in that regard. Players have been more aware of player safety and longevity and life after football."

Sherman believes the NFL intends to use the extended season as a bridge to an even longer 18-game schedule, forcing players to "risk their bodies".

"That's what's so ridiculous about it, and nobody calls them out, nobody calls out the hypocrisy," he continued.

"I'm hoping that one day people will be brave enough to call out the hypocrisy of saying hey, we really care about player safety, but hey we always want you to play an extra game and put your body on the line and risk your career."

They are in different stages of career and their journeys to this point have been markedly different, but no other offensive coach in the league does creativity and innovation to the level of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and 49ers boss Kyle Shanahan.

Despite the strength of the Niners defense and the improvements made by that of the Chiefs down the stretch, you will find few in Miami willing to bet against a shootout at Hard Rock Stadium.

It's a 61-year-old veteran against the 40-year-old christened as a genius almost throughout the league, and their intelligence and incredible acumen are sure to help keep the scoreboard ticking in what many expect to be a classic Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid

A former assistant of Mike Holmgren with the Green Bay Packers, Reid was schooled in the West Coast offense that Holmgren was immersed in during his time working under the legendary 49ers coach Bill Walsh. 

The West Coast is an offense that is built on the principle of getting the ball to the receivers in space from them to gain yardage after the catch. 

Reid has stuck to that tenet of the scheme, but the genius in his approach lies with how he has incorporated the deep pass. The West Coast system may be designed to put players in space, but the Chiefs, through drafting the likes of Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, have added players so fast that they create their own space.

Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes attempted a deep pass of 20 yards or more at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL this season, despite missing the best part of 11 quarters with a knee injury, with the 2.4 yards of separation from the nearest defender his receivers averaged on those passes the second-highest amount in the league.

Such is Reid's faith in Mahomes' arm and the speed of his receivers, that one of the Chiefs' most frequent play-calls if four verticals – essentially just four receivers running straight down the field.

The raw pace the Chiefs have at their disposal allows Reid the luxury of stretching defenses deep, but he also uses their physical gifts to test opponents horizontally as well. Reid will frequently send his running back in motion to shift defenders over to a certain side of the field and make them respect the possibility of a short throw to that area, opening greater pockets of space downfield.

Respect for such motion is a result of the impact Hill has made on jet sweeps and reverses out of the backfield, the former fifth-round pick adept at ripping off significant gains through plays that are effectively an extension of the running game.

Further downfield, Reid also utilizes the speed of his wideouts with deep crossing patterns that give defenders, as Raiders safety Karl Joseph found out in Week 2, a difficult decision to make as to who to cover. The combination of the Chiefs' speed and Reid's play-calls so often puts defenses in a bind, which is something his opposite number Shanahan seemingly revels in finding new ways to do.

San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Shanahan

The only team that ranks above the Chiefs in average separation on deep passes is the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo's completion percentage of 58.1 on deep throws is the best in the league, above Mahomes in second (47.1).

San Francisco and Garoppolo's presence at the top of those respective lists will surprise many given their postseason successes over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers were built around a dominant running game.

But the fact the Niners are able to flourish on the ground and send it deep is testament to Shanahan, who creates huge holes for his troop of electric running backs with an outside zone scheme that is an extension of what his father Mike ran in Denver and Washington. Shanahan also does an excellent job of recognising a defense's weak link and relentlessly taking advantage of it to get his receivers open.

A master of misdirection and disguise, no coach in the NFL relies on motion and play-action more than Shanahan, and the results have been devastatingly impressive for a team that finished the regular season second in points per game with 29.9.

The two players that are most crucial to Shanahan's consistent success with deception are Kyle Juszczyk and rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel.

Juszczyk is the Niners' Swiss Army knife. Many balked at the $21millon contract the Niners gave the fullback in 2017, but he has more than proved his worth.

The Niners do not use him as strictly a traditional fullback, they deploy him as a tight end and as a slot receiver as well as in the backfield, and the fact he has the athleticism to block and catch passes from each of those spots makes it near-impossible to decipher what his responsibility on a given play.

Juszczyk was the lead blocker on Samuel's touchdown on a reverse in the 49ers' crucial Week 17 win at the Seattle Seahawks that clinched a bye and homefield advantage in the playoffs for San Francisco.

Samuel has slotted seamlessly into the offense, racking 802 receiving yards, but the threat of him as a runner out of the backfield has allowed Shanahan to add another dimension to his attack, forcing defenders to hesitate when he comes across the formation, as they did when he ended up being the lead blocker for one of four Raheem Mostert touchdowns in the NFC Championship game.

Stopping the Niners' diverse ground attack will be a primary focus of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo but, with Shanahan being such a savant of disguise and having the likes of Juszczyk and Samuel at his disposal, it is difficult how to see that goal can be achieved in what will be a points fest if he and Reid perform at their play-calling peak.

Opinions are firmly split on whether the league's most talented quarterback, Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, or the NFL's most talented team, the 49ers will prevail at Hard Rock Stadium.

Regardless of the outcome, it is anticipated to be a game that will live long in the memory.

Here we look at the aspects of the game where a mouth-watering contest will likely be won and lost.

Patrick Mahomes v the 49ers pass rush

Mahomes is dangerous not just because of the explosive plays he makes look routine, but also because of the way in which he is able to avoid negative plays.

He was sacked only 17 times in the regular season and threw just five interceptions. However, the Niners' ferocious pass rush, which including the playoffs has racked up 57 sacks, will provide the superstar passer with his stiffest challenge of the campaign.

The 49ers' path to victory involves getting to Mahomes and forcing uncharacteristic mistakes, if they fail to do that, it could be a long evening for the best defense in the NFL.

The battle of the elite tight ends

The 49ers' George Kittle has cemented a reputation as the premier player at tight end. However, the Chiefs' Travis Kelce is also among the elite at the position and has the opportunity to state his case as the class of the tight end field on the grandest stage of them all.

Kittle is an outstanding all-around player who makes an impact on almost every play through his remarkable athleticism and pass-catching ability, along with his incredible contributions as a blocker.

Kelce has developed a near-telepathic rapport with Mahomes and is crucial to helping his quarterback dice up zone coverage schemes such as that employed by the 49ers.

Both Kittle and Kelce will be imperative to their respective teams' gameplans and whichever tight end enjoys the better outing could have a decisive impact on an encounter that looks tantalisingly poised.

A heavyweight coaching matchup

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of Super Bowl LIV is the coaching matchup between Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, two of the finest offensive play-callers in the modern game.

The offenses of the Chiefs and the 49ers have each proved near-impossible to stop this season. Kansas City's attack has thrived as the combination of Reid and Mahomes has proved a match made in heaven, the Chiefs possessing unquestionably the most dynamic deep passing attack in the NFL.

Like Reid, 49ers head coach Shanahan is a renowned innovator who excels at exploiting mismatches, with the way he has developed his father Mike's outside-zone running game turning San Francisco's rushing attack into a juggernaut. 

Reid and Shanahan are known for their meticulous preparation and have had two weeks to plan for this contest. The winner of what many expect to be a shootout may be decided by which coach put together the superior gameplan during that fortnight.

San Francisco's surging ground game

That San Francisco running game is likely to be the focus of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and with good reason.

The Niners totalled an astonishing 471 yards and six touchdowns on the ground across their playoff wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, controlling the clock and taking pressure off quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo while ensuring the defense stayed rested.

Should the 49ers succeed in doing the same in the Super Bowl and keep Mahomes off the field, the advantage will tilt firmly in their favour.

The Chiefs' need for speed

Kansas City can produce consistently huge games largely because of the track-star speed the Chiefs have in their receiving corps.

Tyreek Hill may be the fastest player in the NFL and rookie Mecole Hardman cannot be far behind. 

Their pace puts a huge strain on opposing secondaries, but the 49ers – despite not being blessed with significant speed among their defensive backs – have done a superb job of limiting explosive plays.

The Niners gave up just five passing plays of 40 yards or more in the regular season, thanks to a combination of their pass rush and a vastly improved secondary, with All-Pro corner Richard Sherman and safeties Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt enjoying excellent seasons.

That trio will need to maintain that form to keep the most dangerous offense the Niners defense has faced at bay.

Veteran quarterback Rodgers led the Packers to the NFL title in February 2011 but has since been frustrated in his pursuit of another ring.

The 49ers' 37-20 success at Levi's Stadium marked Green Bay's third NFC Championship Game loss in six seasons.

Rodgers, now 36, threw two touchdowns and two picks as the Packers failed to recover from a one-sided first half, but he believes this team can still win again, aided by general manager Brian Gutekunst and head coach Matt LaFleur

"The exciting thing is I have a lot of faith and trust in Brian and his staff," he said. "I think Matt LaFleur deserves a lot of credit for the way that we performed week in and week out.

"He even set the vision every week. Very simple messaging. With his leadership and empowering guys the way that he did, and with Brian adding pieces as he did this offseason and will continue to do, the window is open for us.

"That's the exciting thing. It doesn't make this feel any [better], but that is very exciting moving forward.

"The window is open and I think we'll be on the right side of one of these real soon."

However, Rodgers acknowledges such defeats are especially painful in the final years of an esteemed career.

"It's a little raw right now, for sure," he added. "It definitely hurts a little more than earlier in the career just because you realise how difficult it is to get to this spot.

"With all of the changes this offseason, [a new coach], the installation of a new system and a new programme, to get to this point, you feel like it was something special because it just didn't really make sense.

"We weren't picked by most people to win our division, but we found a way to not only do that but to win a home playoff game and get to this spot.

"It just kind of felt like it was meant to be almost, so that was a little bit disappointing.

"It's a little more disappointing when you realise that I don't have the same number of years ahead of me as I do behind me."

The 2022 season will be a significant one for Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones, with questions sure to be asked of the five first-round picks if they do not show signs of vindicating their respective franchises for selecting them last year.

Jones arguably already proved himself as the most pro-ready QB of the quintet in an impressive rookie campaign, but 2022 may well reveal how high the ceiling is for the least physically gifted of the bunch. The rest are all aiming to prove they have the skill sets to join the league's expanding and increasingly youthful elite at the NFL's most important position. 

Indeed, the first four quarterbacks off the board in 2021 were all regarded as players with the potential to elevate those around them and take their offenses to new heights. But a quarterback, regardless of his athletic and mental gifts, cannot do it all himself. So who among the 2021 first-rounders has the best supporting cast to help them excel?

To help us answer that question, we at Stats Perform have gone back to look at our post-free agency positional unit baselines that inform our team rankings.

The baselines were produced for seven different units: quarterback, pass blocking, run blocking, route runners/pass catchers, pass rush, run defense and pass defense. The units are comprised of projected playing time for players on the roster combined with the player baselines linked to each of those units.

An individual player has a year-over-year baseline for a unit input (i.e. pass blocking for a team's projected left tackle). His baseline is combined with those of his team-mates and then adjusted for the importance of the position to that unit to produce an overall unit baseline.

The six non-quarterback baselines, plus a look at some of the moves made in the draft by each quarterback's respective team, provide a picture that reveals which of the second-year signal-callers have the talent around them to thrive.

5. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Even though the numbers are not impressive, there were clear flashes of promise in Fields' rookie season with the Bears.

While he only finished with a 70.9 well-thrown percentage – seven percentage points below the average for quarterbacks with at least 50 throws – and had a pickable pass rate of 5.36 per cent that was the eighth-worst among that group, Fields did display the upside that led the Bears to trade up for him.

Only two quarterbacks averaged more air yards per attempt than Fields' 10.02 and his three passing plays of 50 yards or more were the most of all rookie quarterbacks and as many as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert managed all season.

You would think, therefore, that the Bears' focus this offseason would be on giving Fields the weapons to produce further explosive plays in 2022. Not so, the Bears waited until the third round to add a wide receiver in the draft – 25-year-old return specialist Velus Jones Jr.

The Bears' reluctance to add to a group of pass-catchers that prior to the draft had the sixth-lowest unit baseline in the NFL hardly suggests at a sophomore surge for Fields in 2022.

And with Chicago's offensive line among the worst in the league for pass protection and run-blocking baseline and its defense in the bottom six for pass defense and bottom three for pass rush, it appears likely to be another year when Fields is swimming against a tide engineered by his own franchise.

4. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Simply having an adult in the room with experience of winning at the NFL level should help Lawrence's cause, with Doug Pederson a substantial improvement on Urban Meyer as head coach.

As is the case with Fields in Chicago, Pederson will hope Lwrence can build on last season's flashes of the talent that led some to label him as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. Lawrence's well-thrown percentage of 76.3 was significantly better than that of Fields, but his 26 pickable passes were the fourth-most in the league.

Unlike the Bears, the Jags invested heavily in getting Lawrence receiving help, doing so in a bemusing manner as they threw eye-watering amounts of money at players who fit best as secondary targets rather than as the leading receiver for a player dubbed a 'generational' quarterback prospect.

Indeed, the lucrative deals handed out to the likes of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones only put them 20th in pass-catching unit baseline prior to the draft. The hope will be that Kirk, who was seventh among receivers with at least 100 targets with a big-play rate of 35.6 per cent last year, can help Lawrence generate more explosives in year two.

And while much of the Jags' roster still reeks of mediocrity, an offensive line that ranked fourth in pass-block win rate in 2021 may give him the time to help justify the Jags' belief in Kirk and Lawrence's other new weapons.

3. Zach Wilson, New York Jets

The Jets received almost universal praise for their draft, acquiring cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson and edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II in the first round before then adding the consensus top running back in the class – Iowa State's Breece Hall – in the second.

Their roster looks in significantly better shape than it did at the end of the 2021 campaign, but the Jets were working from a pretty low starting point.

Coming out of free agency, only six teams had a lower unit baseline among their pass-catchers than the Jets, whose offensive line was in the bottom half of the league in pass protection baseline and in the run-blocking baseline.

Johnson's arrival and the return of fellow edge rusher Carl Lawson from injury should provide a clear boost to a pass rush that was fourth in unit baseline last year while a secondary that exited free agency just outside the top 10 in pass defense baseline appears much better equipped to provide support to Wilson and the offense.

However, Wilson had the worst well-thrown percentage (66.6) of any rookie quarterback last season, with Fields (5.36) and fellow rookie Davis Mills (5.56) the only two quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts to have a higher pickable pass rate than Wilson's 5.21 per cent.

The Jets are relying on Mekhi Becton to get healthy and play a full season at left tackle and, though they have some more established options at tight end and receiver, are also putting a lot on a rookie receiver in likely leaning heavily on Garrett Wilson to elevate his second-year quarterback.

It has been a successful offseason for the Jets, but a lot needs to happen for their hopes of a second-year leap for team and quarterback to come to fruition.

2. Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Were it not for the outstanding season enjoyed by Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, Jones may well have won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

The outstanding accuracy Jones demonstrated at Alabama translated to the pros, Jones producing a well-thrown ball on 80.1 per cent of attempts. He achieved that feat while averaging more air yards per attempt (8.11) than both Lawrence and Wilson, yet there is reason for trepidation around thoughts of him progressing significantly in his second year.

Jones' passer rating on throws of 21 or more air yards was 65.4 – 31st among the 41 quarterbacks to attempt at least 10, illustrating the limited ceiling of a quarterback whose arm is not on the level of his fellow 2021 first-rounders.

Yet Jones does have the benefit of one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. After free agency, the Patriots' O-Line was tied for sixth in pass protection unit baseline and fifth in run blocking baseline.

They replaced guard Shaq Mason, who was surprisingly traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, by making the similarly eyebrow-raising move of selecting Chattanooga guard Cole Strange in the first round of the draft. Strange's arrival should solidify the interior of the line and allow the Patriots to stick to a formula of leaning on the run game to take the pressure off Jones.

New England's receiving corps is at best uninspiring and the Patriots' failure to address a depleted secondary may prohibit playoff aspirations, but the strength in the trenches means Jones is in a better position to achieve short-term success than most of his second-year contemporaries.

1. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are set to step into the unknown in 2021, with all signs pointing to Lance playing his first full season since his lone campaign as the starting quarterback at North Dakota State in 2019 despite Jimmy Garoppolo's continued presence on the roster.

Handing the keys to an offense that was in the NFC championship Game over to a quarterback with only two career starts to his name represents a substantial risk, but it is a risk the Niners are in an excellent position to take.

While there remains no sign of the impasse between San Francisco and All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel coming to an end, the Niners left free agency with a group of pass-catchers ranked sixth in the league in unit baseline. They added to that group in the draft by selecting SMU speedster Danny Gray in the third round.

San Francisco's pass defense was also in the top half of the league in that regard going into the draft, while its pass rush was third in unit baseline and could have an even higher ceiling in 2022 if Drake Jackson adapts quickly to the pros. The Niners' second-round pick registered a pressure rate of 24.2 that was the fifth-best among edge rushers in this draft class in 2021.

The Niners ranked in the top 10 in pass block win rate and seventh in run block win rate last season, yet their biggest issue may be maintaining that standard after losing left guard Laken Tomlinson to the Jets amid doubts over whether center Alex Mack would retire.

Lance could, therefore, be playing behind a largely inexperienced O-Line this coming season. However, the data from his small sample size last year hinted at him having what it takes to elevate those around him. He averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt – the second-most in the NFL – and no player to average at least 9.0 air yards had a better well-thrown percentage than Lance's 77.1.

His challenge will be to maintain that combination of aggression and accuracy over the course of a full season.

If the Niners can come to an understanding with Samuel, Lance will have one of the most versatile weapons in the NFL to help him build on those encouraging flashes. He'll also benefit from the support of a stout defense built on the strength of its front and a diverse running game that will likely grow even more varied with him under center.

The trump card for Lance is head coach Kyle Shanahan, who is arguably the pre-eminent offensive mind of the modern NFL. Between the talent on both sides of the ball and Shanahan's ability to draw up a running game and put receivers in space, the Niners are a high-floor, high ceiling team.

There may be doubts about Lance, but there should be no doubt he is the quarterback in the best situation to silence those concerns.

Tagovailoa, who completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards and two touchdowns with three turnovers, did not partake in the Dolphins' final drive and was listed as questionable to return.

That came after being listed on the injury report during the week with an ankle injury although he was able to fully participate in team practices.

"As good as I can be coming off a game," Tagovailoa told reporters after Sunday's defeat. "We'll assess some things but as good as I can be."

Tagovailoa's two interceptions came on successive passes in the third quarter. The third-year quarterback had given up three turnovers all season coming into Week 13.

The result leaves the Dolphins with an 8-4 record, with the Buffalo Bills on top of the AFC East with a 9-3 record fueled by a three-game win streak.

The Dolphins' own five-game win streak was ended by the 49ers and Tagovailoa lamented his performance.

"It sucks," he said. "It sucks that we didn't come out and do what we wanted to do as a team.

"Obviously, it starts with me - turnovers, with third-down communication errors. In that retrospect, it's hard to win a game when you're not on your P's and Q's and you're not dialed in.

"A lot of that has to do with understanding what we're trying to accomplish and what we're trying to do. It was definitely a poor performance from my part in that aspect of the game."

The 49ers were expected to brush aside the Raiders, for whom Jarrett Stidham was making his first NFL start at quarterback after they benched Derek Carr, but the anticipated blowout did not materialise.

Instead, the Niners were drawn into a compelling shootout, their league-best defense surrendering 500 yards to the Raider offense as Stidham delivering a stunning debut.

The 49ers trailed 24-14 in the third quarter but, even after overturning that deficit, were still forced into overtime despite Purdy delivering with the game on the line.

Having seen the defense quickly surrender a 34-27 advantage as the Raiders tied the game with 71 seconds remaining in regulation, Purdy gained 52 yards on four completions to wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to put the Niners in range for a game-winning field goal, only for Robbie Gould to push his kick wide right.

A Tashaun Gipson interception in overtime gave Gould the chance for a reprieve, his 23-yard kick giving the 49ers a ninth straight win that saw them improve to 12-4 and move up to the second seed in the NFC playoffs. 

It marked the first time Purdy, who became the fourth rookie quarterback to win his first four starts since 1950, had dealt with playing from behind.

And Shanahan was delighted to see him come through the experience.

"I think that was great for him," said Shanahan. "We had to come from behind, especially there at the end. Also, he made a ton of plays today, but there's a number that he missed too.

"And that's the coolest part. There were some he'd love to have back. It was never one way too much or the other where he was struggling or doing well, but there were some mixed plays.

"To keep coming back and keep attacking, he never got gun-shy, made some real good decisions too and fought it out throughout the whole game and found a way to win."

Though the elite quarterbacks in the league can fit the ball into tight windows on a consistent basis, the odds of success on that side of the ball are much higher when those signal-callers are paired with receivers who can defeat man coverage and get into open space.

Excelling at finding the soft spot in zone coverage is also important, while the top play-callers in the NFL frequently engineer space for their receivers.

Yet receivers who can win one-on-one are a tremendous help to quarterbacks, especially those who can defeat the blitz regularly with their ability to efficiently read the field and find the open man.

While determining the 'best' receiver in the NFL is a subjective process that can hinge on an affinity for certain styles of play, success in beating defenders in coverage can be quantified.

Stats Perform has done so with its open percentage metric, which tracks how often a receiver gets open when they're matched up against man coverage and have enough time to run a route. Plays that break down before a matchup with a defender can take place or scramble drills where a receiver uncovers after running his initial route are discounted.

So who are the best and worst in that regard? Here we look at the top performers, some surprise names uncovering more often than perhaps expected and those who rarely separate from defenders.

THE ELITE

A year in which Cooper Kupp leads the NFL with 1,141 receiving yards has seen him established as arguably the premier route runner in the NFL.

That is reflected by his open percentage of 57.75, which is the highest of any player with more than 10 coverage matchups.

Getting open on 41 of his 71 matchups, Kupp has consistently excelled at creating separation. His burn percentage, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender when he's targeted, of 65.2 is above the average of 60.3 for wideouts (min. 10 targets), while he is fourth in the NFL in burn yards per route (4.2).

Joining Kupp near the top of the tree is Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. Proving his record-breaking rookie year was no fluke, Jefferson has faced 108 coverage matchups and got open on 55 of them, good for an open percentage of 50.93. 

Eleventh among receivers with a burn percentage of 73.4 and averaging 3.3 burn yards per route, there has been no sign of a sophomore slump from Jefferson, whose combination of separation ability and prowess at the catch point has turned him into one of the most dependable and dynamic receivers in the league.

Keenan Allen (53.16) is Kupp's closest challenger, the Los Angeles Chargers veteran underlining his status as one of the NFL's most underappreciated receivers by getting open at a rate that may only heighten frustrations around his team's underperforming offense.

Kansas City Chiefs star Tyreek Hill (47.78) boasts an elite open percentage that belies his underwhelming big play rate of 28.0 per cent, with Stefon Diggs' (47.62) success at getting open dispelling the notion of a drop-off from last year's receiving leader. Davante Adams (45.65) is unsurprisingly also among the league's best, yet he is accompanied by some eyebrow-raising names.

SURPRISE STUDS

It has been tough to watch an uninspired Pittsburgh Steelers offense this season and think anyone is getting open.

Almost every passing play the Steelers run seems to end in a contested catch, yet a wideout who thrives in those situations is also winning the vast majority of his coverage matchups.

Indeed, second-year wideout Chase Claypool ranks behind only Kupp and Allen in open percentage, uncovering from a defender on 35 of his 68 matchups (51.47). 

However, a burn yards per route rate of 2.5, just above the average of 2.3, and his struggles in the burn yards per target metric (10.30) indicate that, while Claypool is separating from coverage, he is not putting significant distance between himself and defenders. He will likely need to continue relying on his superiority at the catch point.

As with the Steelers, you won't find too many people who draw a sense of excitement watching a Teddy Bridgewater-led Denver Broncos offense.

There is no doubting the talent on Denver's attack. With Jerry Jeudy hurt and Noah Fant so far failing to take the second-year leap many expected, Courtland Sutton has shone brightest and is on course for a 1,000-yard season, though Tim Patrick's impact has been comparable.

Save for Kendall Hinton (47.83 on 23 matchups), it is the relatively unheralded Patrick who has proven Denver's best at separating, his open percentage of 44.44 from 90 matchups level with Dallas Cowboys star Amari Cooper.

A below-average burn yards per route of 2.0 speaks to a paucity of substantial separation, but Patrick is using the distance he is able to put between himself and defenders to create explosive plays, his big-play rate of 36.7 per cent comfortably above the average of 29.2.

Again leading tight ends in receiving yards (747), most would expect Travis Kelce of the Chiefs to top the list at that position for open percentage. Instead, it is a former AFC West standout in ex-Charger Hunter Henry.

Scoring seven touchdowns in as many games prior to being kept out of the endzone in Thursday's win over the Atlanta Falcons, Henry possesses an open percentage of 48.15. However, he has not been double-teamed this season.

Darren Waller has a double-team percentage of 17.2 and has still managed to get open 46.75 per cent of the time. The attention the Las Vegas Raiders star draws and his ability to succeed despite it illustrate his position as one of the league's biggest matchup nightmares and arguably the gold standard at tight end.

NO ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE

The Packers' offense has stuttered by its own high standards in recent weeks, with their underwhelming numbers not just a product of Jordan Love's struggles against the Chiefs.

Since Week 6, the Packers are averaging 213.2 net passing yards per game – 20th in the NFL. For the season, they are 16th in yards per pass play (6.46).

That mediocrity can, in part, be attributed to a lack of receiving depth beyond Adams, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling's issues getting open encapsulate that problem.

Valdes-Scantling is supposed to be the Packers' deep threat who can stretch defenses with his ability to separate vertically.

Open on only five of his 38 coverage matchups – a percentage of 13.16 – Valdes-Scantling is not fulfilling his role. The Packers will likely need to be more explosive in the playoffs if they are to go all the way, meaning Valdes-Scantling must up his game.

Bryan Edwards is in a similar situation in Las Vegas. Scarcely utilised last season, Edwards has seen a bump in targets in 2021, the Raiders often going to him downfield. 

Edwards' average depth of target is 17.2 yards, but he has found deep separation hard to come by, uncovering on 17 of his 111 matchups (15.32 per cent). Yet with a gaudy burn yards per target average of 15.01 and a big-play rate of 50.7 per cent that is third among receivers (min. 10 targets), Edwards is a player who takes full advantage of the little separation he gets when Derek Carr looks his way.

Edwards' former South Carolina team-mate San Francisco 49ers star Deebo Samuel is performing at the highest level of his young career. Samuel is second behind Kupp with 979 receiving yards and already has seven total touchdowns this season.

However, Samuel ranks near the bottom of the league in open percentage (15.07), with the difference between that number and his overall production a reflection of how he is used by San Francisco.

His average depth of target is 8.6 yards, below the NFL average for receivers of 11.0, speaking to the Niners' reliance on him on screens and short passes that are an extension of the run game.

Third in burn yards per route and leading all wide receivers with an average of 9.6 yards after catch per reception, Samuel takes advantage of those short targets with his speed, elusiveness and power, while he can win at the catch point downfield even without separation. The 49ers often get Samuel in space in the backfield but, for one of the league's most unique players, separation is not always a requirement.

Thielen was limited in practice on Wednesday before missing Thursday's session in a worry for the Vikings.

The 29-year-old starred with 129 receiving yards during the Vikings' 26-20 win over the New Orleans Saints in their wild-card clash on Sunday.

The Vikings listed Thielen as "questionable" in their injury report on Thursday, but he is still hoping to be ready for Saturday's clash against the 49ers.

"For me, it's just like anything – you do what you have to do every day to be there on Saturday and try to help this team win," Thielen said, via the team's website.

In a boost for the Vikings, wide receiver Stefon Diggs practised on Thursday after battling the flu earlier in the week.

Garoppolo, who underwent shoulder surgery in March, led the 49ers to the NFC Championship game, losing 20-17 to eventual Super Bowl LVI champions Los Angeles Rams.

The 30-year-old quarterback is widely expected to depart the 49ers in the off-season, with Shanahan effectively confirming the assumption that 2021 NFL Draft's third pick in Lance will take over.

"We have moved on to Trey," Shanahan told reporters ahead of the 49ers training camp. "This is Trey's team.

"That's nothing against Jimmy. We made that decision a year ago and we're going with that. We're not going to mess around with that anymore.

"Jimmy understands that fully. That's a business decision and that's what makes it not awkward. Jimmy knows we're going with Trey.

"Trey knows we're going with Trey and our team does, and everyone likes both of those guys."

Shanahan along with 49ers general manager John Lynch sat down for a meeting with Garoppolo on Tuesday morning to discuss his future.

Garoppolo has only just been cleared to practice having resumed throwing after his shoulder surgery, meaning opposition teams were reluctant to make trade plans for him until now.

"As soon as we can," Shanahan said about a Garoppolo move.

"Hopefully with everyone being on the same page, hopefully that will happen sooner than later. I think that would be good for him and for us."

Garoppolo threw 20 touchdowns - with his 1.33 per game was ranked 19th in the NFL among quarterbacks - with a 68.3 per cent completion rate for 3,810 yards across the 2021 season.

Meanwhile, Lynch was positive about the future of wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who had requested a trade in April.

"We've had really productive and substantive talks," Lynch said.

"I don't want to get everyone all excited that something is imminent because we're not there yet, but really hopeful that in the near future we'll be able to announce something that is exciting for everyone involved.

"Deebo is here today and we're excited about moving forward with him as part of this team."

The Cowboys extended their losing run in Divisional Round games to 7-0 since 1997 as they were eliminated from the playoffs by the 49ers for the second straight season on Sunday.

In a game where both teams' defenses shone, Prescott completed 23 of 37 passes for 206 yards with one touchdown but two interceptions.

The two picks, from Fred Warner and Deommodore Lenoir, led to six points for the 49ers, which was telling given the final margin.

"Those are throws you can't have, not in the playoffs," Prescott said. "Not when you're playing a team like that [and] on the road. No excuses for it. Those are 100 per cent on me."

Prescott had a career-high 15 interceptions in the regular season, becoming the first QB to tie or lead the league while missing five or more games.

The Cowboys QB also finished the season with his sixth multi-interception game, tied for most in the NFL.

Prescott labelled his interceptions as "ridiculous" and vowed that that total would never be so high again.

"On the first one, I hitched one too many times with [Michael Gallup]," he said. "Understandably, hitching three times, thought I was gonna go on a scramble but the guy just came back to the ball and made a play.

"I've gotta throw that one away or use my feet and get out of the pocket. On the second one, the nickel [cornerback] squeezed, and I tried to throw it to CeeDee [Lamb], but the [defender] was able to make a play on it. He tipped it in the air and to the [middle linebacker]."

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said he felt "sick" after another playoffs exit, while head coach Mike McCarthy lamented their inability to convert on offense.

"We knew it was gonna be a slugfest," McCarthy said. "We just didn't get enough. You can go through the decisions, the statistics, but I think, defensively, we did a really good job, for the most part.

"Would we like to have a couple more snaps? Yes. Would we like to have a couple more third-down conversions on offense? Yes, we could've used those, too.

"Just extremely disappointed. This has been an incredible journey with this group of men, we just came up short tonight to a very good football team."

News of Carthon's hire in Tennessee was reported by NFL Network on Tuesday.

The 41-year-old had been the San Francisco 49ers' director of player personnel, having previously held a similar role with the Los Angeles Rams.

He had also been a scout with the Atlanta Falcons.

Carthon is replacing Jon Robinson, who was fired in early December.

Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk said in a statement explaining that decision: "I am proud of what we have accomplished in my eight seasons of ownership, but I believe there is more to be done and higher aspirations to be met."

Robinson had been the GM since 2016, with the team reaching the playoffs in four of his seven seasons.

There are some obvious standouts. The Week 4 meeting of Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Bill Belichick's New England Patriots should capture the entire league's attention as Brady returns to Foxborough for the first time since saying a shock farewell to his home of 20 seasons last offseason, and then going on to win a seventh Super Bowl ring in his maiden season with the Bucs.

A potential duel between Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Week 9 hinges on Rodgers blinking in his staring contest with the Packers' brass and returning for the season.

Should he do so, it will pit the reigning MVP against the 2018 MVP and Super Bowl LIV MVP in a matchup of two quarterbacks who have each recently finished in the top five in well-thrown ball percentage. Rodgers was third in the NFL with 82.4 per cent last season while Mahomes was fourth with 81.1 per cent in 2019 as he led the Chiefs to the Lombardi Trophy.

But the games with the best narratives on the surface do not always produce the best matchups. Here, using Stats Perform data, we look at five other games on the schedule that are in the mix to be among the most exciting games of the 2021 campaign.

Packers @ 49ers - Week 3

The Packers trounced a 49ers team decimated by injuries last season, though that was probably hollow revenge for Green Bay's NFC Championship Game humbling at the hands of San Francisco in the 2019 season.

Typically, when Rodgers has visited the team he idolised in his youth, things have gone poorly for the Packers. He has won two of his four regular-season meetings with the Niners in the Bay Area but has lost to San Francisco on each of the three occasions he has faced them in the playoffs, with two of those defeats on the road.

Still, if Rodgers acquiesces in his stand-off with Packers management and plays for Green Bay in 2021, it promises to be a fascinating duel of NFC contenders, with the Niners potentially starting a rookie quarterback in dual-threat Trey Lance.

Should Rodgers remain with the Packers, the key matchup in this one could well be the reigning MVP against a Niners defensive line that should get back edge rusher Nick Bosa after he missed most of the 2020 season with a torn ACL.

Rodgers' well-thrown percentage under pressure was 71.0 per cent in 2020, the ninth-best in the NFL, and he will likely have to maintain that accuracy under duress if Bosa is back to his best. The 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year had a pressure rate of 28.3 per cent in his first season in the league, trailing only Adrian Clayborn and elder brother Joey, and sacked Rodgers in the regular season and the NFC title game.

Buccaneers @ Rams - Week 3

Yes, Brady v Belichick is the game everybody in Tampa will be most excited for, and the season opener between the Super Bowl champions and the Dallas Cowboys will be a primetime ratings monster, but perhaps the best duel involving the only player with seven Super Bowl rings will take place when Tampa head west.

The Rams edged the Buccaneers 27-24 in Tampa last season and should provide a stern test again at SoFi Stadium with Matthew Stafford set to be under center for Los Angeles.

But Stafford is not the person Brady will be concerned with when it comes to the Rams. Instead, it will be three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald.

Brady was phenomenal when it came to avoiding interceptable passes last season.

He threw a pickable pass on just 13 of 590 pass attempts in 2020, a percentage of 2.20 that only Alex Smith (2.12) could better. When under pressure, it increased to 3.45 per cent, but that was still the fourth-lowest pickable pass rate in the NFL under duress.

But no defender in the league strikes fear into the heart of quarterbacks quite like Donald, who led all defensive tackles in 2020 with a pressure rate of 27.7 per cent and an adjusted sack rate of 5.5 per cent.

Donald can destroy the best-laid plans of any offense, and surviving the challenge he and the Rams will pose will be one of the biggest tests for Brady and the Bucs in their bid to repeat as champions

Bills @ Chiefs - Week 5

This is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game in which the Bills did not produce an effort reflective of their outstanding 2020, and Buffalo look like the team best placed to challenge Kansas City again in the AFC in 2021.

The headline act of this clash is the battle of the quarterbacks, with Mahomes and Josh Allen leading the revolution of athletic, cannon-armed quarterbacks who have taken the league by storm.

But an underrated aspect of this game will be Stefon Diggs' performance against a Chiefs secondary that does not get the credit it deserves.

Diggs was held to six catches for 77 yards in the playoff matchup but recently revealed he played through the postseason with an oblique tear.

When healthy, Diggs has the ability to do significantly greater damage. He led the NFL with 1,535 receiving yards in his first season in Buffalo and trailed only Davante Adams (3.9) in burn yards per route as he averaged 3.6.

However, the Chiefs' projected starting cornerbacks have the means to slow him down. L'Jarius Sneed was fifth among all corners in preventing big plays, allowing a play of 20 yards or more on just 14.5 per cent of his targets. 

Meanwhile, Charvarius Ward was fourth among corners in burns allowed, giving up a burn on 32.7 per cent of his targets.

Bears @ Seahawks - Week 16

The Bears have rarely been high on the list of teams to look out for when it comes to intrigue in recent years, but that all changed when they traded up to draft Justin Fields 11th overall.

Once Chicago ends the charade of committing to Andy Dalton as starting quarterback and goes with the high-upside rookie, the Bears have the potential to be an extremely interesting watch.

That will certainly be the case if Fields is under center when they travel to Seattle's Lumen Field, with the Bears set to face the quarterback they reportedly pursued before picking Fields, Seahawks star Russell Wilson.

A quarterback battle between Fields and Wilson has the potential to be an absorbing encounter featuring two signal-callers who each excel with their accuracy throwing the deep ball.

Of quarterbacks with at least 25 throws of 25 or more air yards, only three players (Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers and Derek Carr) had a higher well-thrown percentage than Wilson's 63.0 per cent on those attempts last season.

Fields was similarly proficient attacking downfield in his final year for Ohio State, posting a well-thrown percentage of 76.47 per cent on throws of 15 or more air yards that was superior to that of Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones.

If his success in that regard quickly translates to the NFL, the Bears' trip to the Pacific Northwest could turn into a scintillating showcase of the deep passing game. For the first time in a while, the Bears have the potential to be must-see TV.

Ravens @ Browns - Week 14

The balance of power in the AFC North is shifting towards the Ravens and Browns and their Monday Night game in Cleveland last year was among the most entertaining of the 2020 campaign.

In the end, the Browns' inability to stop Lamar Jackson, even after his apparent 'comfort break', from making the big plays in Baltimore's thrilling comeback was the decisive factor in the Ravens' 47-42 triumph.

Cleveland took steps to stop such a scenario from playing out again, using their first-round pick on a cornerback in Greg Newsome II who allowed a big play on just 4.2 per cent of his 36 targets in an abbreviated final season at Northwestern.

His addition, and that of versatile second-round linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who allowed a big-play percentage of 11.0 when covering from the slot and had an overall pressure rate of 25.0 per cent, should help the Browns do a better job of slowing down opponents.

But whether those arrivals are enough to make the difference against Jackson and the Ravens is another matter.

An underrated downfield thrower whose well-thrown percentage of 60.0 on throws of 25 or more air yards was seventh in the NFL last year, Jackson has another dynamic weapon to target in the form of first-round receiver Rashod Bateman.

Sixth among Power 5 wideouts with at least 50 targets in burn yards per target (16.15) in his stellar 2019 season, Bateman can be the number one receiver Jackson has long since lacked.

Bateman excelled at creating separation two years ago while having an average depth of target of 16.2. With him and speedster Marquise Brown in the mix, Jackson does not lack big-play weapons, and Cleveland's ability to keep them under wraps could be critical in deciding an ultra-competitive division in 2021.

Brady will not be a New England Patriot when he starts his 21st NFL season, but where he lands in free agency remains unclear.

The Tennessee Titans are ruled out after re-signing Ryan Tannehill while the Las Vegas Raiders' reported acquisition of Marcus Mariota means Sin City is unlikely to be Brady's next destination.

So where is his most likely landing spot? We assess the options.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

A sporting icon moving to the City of Stars late in his career? See LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers for evidence that can happen.

The Chargers, who would welcome a star acquisition to help sell season tickets for their new stadium, have a lot in the 'pros' column. They have a vacancy following Philip Rivers' departure, the cap space (over $50 million for 2020) and a plethora of offensive weapons such as Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler.

Los Angeles is also geographically appealing for a man who recently launched his own production company. Yet would Brady really want to challenge Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the reigning Super Bowl champions for supremacy in the AFC West?

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Another team heavily linked to Brady has been Tampa Bay, who are letting Jameis Winston hit free agency after he led the league in passing yards in 2019.

Winston also threw more interceptions than anyone else, and that is why a player of Brady's calibre - even at 42 years old - would be appealing to head coach Bruce Arians.

Brady's eyes would light up at the possibility of playing with a receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the Florida weather is a plus point too. Are the Bucs close enough to contending for a Super Bowl, though? 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The aforementioned Rivers seems a logical fit here given his familiarity with the coaching staff and reports suggest the two sides have a mutual interest.

However, if Brady really wanted to stick it to New England and Bill Belichick, what better way than signing for one of their rivals? The Colts are a team still seething at Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' U-turn when he seemed set to become Indy's head coach in 2018.

The Colts have plenty of cap space, a fine roster and could offer Brady the sanctuary of their dome for home games. Yet, it is hard to see Brady winding up at Lucas Oil Stadium given it was the Colts' complaint in the 2014 'Deflategate' scandal that led to the quarterback being suspended.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Fans of the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are sure to be among the happiest that Brady is finally leaving the AFC East.

Only what if he does not and Brady takes his talents to South Beach ala LeBron 10 years ago? The Dolphins, awash with cap space, could sign Brady and draft his long-term replacement Tua Tagovailoa to sit behind him and return to fitness.

Brian Flores, the former Patriots defensive coordinator, is the head coach in Miami, but his team are still in the early years of a rebuild - not the type of situation for a 40-something starting QB. Unless he really wants to stick it to Belichick and the Pats....

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

How about this for a Hollywood ending: The boyhood 49ers fan moves back home and rides off into the sunset after winning a seventh Super Bowl ring.

San Francisco came agonisingly close to winning it all last month only to fall short against the Chiefs, leading to Jimmy Garoppolo's naysayers to raise their concerns about his suitability as a franchise quarterback.

It would be some twist given Garoppolo once backed Brady up and was seen as his heir apparent, though Jimmy G's 2019 performances suggested he should be the present and future for Kyle Shanahan's team.

DENVER BRONCOS

Could Brady follow in Peyton Manning's footsteps and head to Mile High? Manning won a second ring as a Bronco in a perfect example of a veteran quarterback taking a talented team over the line, even if he was far from his best in Super Bowl 50.

John Elway drafted Drew Lock last year and though he produced some encouraging signs as a rookie, the Broncos head honcho said they would "always talk" to Brady if he became available. Consider them among the wildcards.

With the 199th pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, New England selected Tom Brady, quarterback from the University of Michigan.

The rest is history. Six Super Bowl wins, nine AFC titles. It was a draft pick that altered the entire NFL, and it was all the more remarkable because sixth-round selections usually face a fight just to make the team.

However, sometimes players, like Brady, slip through the cracks in the draft process and a late-round diamond can be unearthed.

On the 20th anniversary of Brady's selection, we look at some of the best late-round picks in recent memory.

JULIAN EDELMAN - SEVENTH ROUND, 2009

Turns out the Patriots are good at this drafting lark and Brady is not the only late-round gem they have found.

Bill Belichick went to Kent State in 2009 to work out their quarterback Edelman, who had never run routes or caught passes before.

Edelman's pure potential intrigued Belichick, though, and he proved a shrewd seventh-round selection, initially as a punt returner and later as a wideout.

Brady's favourite target in his last few years in New England was instrumental in their Super Bowl LIII win, being named the game's MVP after making 10 catches for 141 yards.

KAM CHANCELLOR - FIFTH ROUND, 2010

Chancellor changed positions three times in four years in college and the Seattle Seahawks had already drafted one safety in first-rounder Earl Thomas when they selected the bruising Virginia Tech defensive back in the fifth.

The two would go on to form the heart of the 'Legion of Boom', one of the greatest defensive backfields of all time and a key reason why Seattle made two Super Bowls in back-to-back seasons.

Chancellor only spent eight seasons in the league and retired at 30 due to a neck injury, but the tone-setter of that great Seattle D was voted to four Pro Bowls.

ANTONIO BROWN - SIXTH ROUND, 2010

Brown wears the number 84 because 8 x 4 = 32 and 32 teams ignored him until the Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed the former Central Michigan receiver with the 195th overall pick a decade ago.

The pre-draft reports suggested he was slow, lacked size, had character concerns and didn't play elite competition in college.

Brown has since amassed 11,263 receiving yards and 75 touchdowns and was arguably the NFL's best receiver of the 2010s.

He remains out of the league today, though, with those character concerns rearing their head and ending short spells with the Oakland Raiders and Patriots last season.

RICHARD SHERMAN - FIFTH ROUND, 2011

The year after selecting Thomas and Chancellor, Seattle drafted K.J. Wright in the fourth round and cornerback Sherman in the fifth in another impressive haul.

Sherman, who started life at Stanford as a wide receiver before converting to corner, was the 34th defensive back selected in 2011, which made him "livid" and provided a sizeable chip for his shoulder.

Since then? Just the five Pro Bowls, three first-team All-Pros, one Super Bowl ring (and another two appearances) and a spot on the NFL's All-Decade team of the 2010s.

GEORGE KITTLE - FIFTH ROUND, 2017

Do-it-all tight ends who are mismatch nightmares have been en vogue ever since Rob Gronkowski took the NFL by storm, and yet everyone passed on Kittle until the San Francisco 49ers wrote down his name for the 146th pick.

In his best season at Iowa, Kittle had 314 receiving yards. Last year he had his second straight 1,000-yard receiving season in the NFL having broken the record for tight ends with 1,377 yards in 2018.

Thanks to Kittle, Iowa tight ends are being taken more seriously too as T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant were both drafted in the first round last year.

Pollard was carted off in the closing stages of the second quarter with a low-scoring game tied at 6-6 at Levi's Stadium.

The running back did not return, and the 49ers claimed a 19-12 win as the Cowboys looked lost on offense in the second half.

Initial reports detailed a high ankle sprain for Pollard, but it has since emerged he also sustained a fracture to his left fibula that will require surgery.

Pollard would therefore have been unavailable for the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles even if the Cowboys had scraped through.

That never appeared likely without Pollard on the field at the end of a career year, however.

The 25-year-old finished the regular season with 1,007 rushing yards, the most on a Dallas team who ran on 45 per cent of plays – the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.

Pollard had nine rushing touchdowns and added a further three receiving scores from 39 catches for 371 yards.

In the Wild Card win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pollard ran for 77 yards at an average of 5.1, well ahead of team-mate Ezekiel Elliott's 2.1 yards per carry.

Elliott, who had a comparatively difficult season, could not carry the load in Pollard's absence in San Francisco, finishing with the same number of yards from scrimmage (33) as the injured star despite playing the full game.

Quarterback Dak Prescott acknowledged afterwards Pollard's injury "hurt us", but the first-time Pro Bowler must now hope the serious nature of the problem is not the source of more hurt.

Pollard will become an unrestricted free agent in March, at which point he will still be rehabilitating his left leg.

The injury occurred late in the second quarter as the Cowboys were driving with the score tied at 6-6, after a Dalton Schultz touchdown catch was answered by a pair of Robbie Gould field goals for the 49ers.

On an eight-yard catch-and-run over the middle of the field, Pollard was tackled from behind by Jimmie Ward and had his foot get trapped in an awkward position on the way down.

He was immediately taken back to the locker room and subsequently ruled out, and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw his second interception of the game on the very next play.

The 49ers capitalised and kicked their third field goal of the first half to head into the break leading 9-6, although Brett Maher was able to answer for the Cowboys to tie things up six minutes into the third period.