North Dakota State Bison

Trevor Lawrence, the presumptive number one overall pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars, is billed as a generational talent at QB, while Zach Wilson appears to be locked in for the New York Jets at two.

There is huge debate and uncertainty over who the San Francisco 49ers will select when they are on the clock on Thursday, having traded up to number three overall.

Lance is in the mix for the Niners, as are Justin Fields and Mac Jones, with all five of the highest-rated QBs tipped to go in the first round and possibly the top 10.

Behind closed doors at the home of the North Dakota State Bison, Lance threw in front of several teams in his 'second pro day' last week, having shown off his remarkable arm at his first.

The 20-year-old is seen as the QB with the widest range of outcomes of the first-round quintet, but has the belief to state he can outshine his rivals, even though he wants them all to succeed.

"I'm confident in myself, and I believe in myself," Lance said to NFL Network.

"I think I have the potential to be the best quarterback in this class. 

"I don't know where I'm gonna be at. Obviously, I've watched a ton of tape, 49ers, Falcons, whatever it is, football, in general. But I'm super excited to find out where I'm going to be. 

"I think I'm going to be able to learn any offense that I'm put into, any system I'm put into, and find a way to be successful.

"I understand obviously there's gonna be a lot of learning to do.

"Just as far as this quarterback class, I want them all to do well. I'm excited to see what they do and rooting for them all the same."

While Lance has faced scrutiny as a passer, he is a dual-threat and perceived as the strongest rusher of the leading options at the QB position.

Only four QBs across the FBS and FCS had more rushing touchdowns than Lance's 14 in 2019, while his rushing average of 6.5 was fifth among signal-callers to have registered at least 100 rushing attempts.

But he will enter the league with just one full season of college experience - and an uneven 'showcase game' against Central Arkansas - after the coronavirus pandemic pushed the Bison's 2020 season into the spring of 2021. 

Lance only averaged around 18 pass attempts in a run-heavy offense in his sole campaign.

In addition to inexperience, the level of competition is also a question-mark against Lance's name, his 16 games in 2019 coming in the FCS, college football's second tier. 

Bison alumnus Carson Wentz made the grade in the NFL, at least initially, playing at the same level, and for Lance any doubts about his game and background simply serve as additional motivation.

He added: "Hearing those [questions] for me is honestly exciting.

"I get to prove people wrong again. So that is what I'll continue to do and I want to continue to do. 

"So definitely excited to be able to prove people wrong and come in and be ready to go whenever the situation is, whenever the coach best sees fit. 

"The 'project' TV label is definitely a thing. Whether it's playing FCS football or whatever, I think Carson is a great example of someone who came in from FCS football, level of competition and all those things that people talked about with him.

"He came in and played really, really well as a rookie. So I think that's a huge thing for me and my process."

The selection is a gamble for head coach Kyle Shanahan, who will stake his team's future on a player from North Dakota State with limited college experience compared to the QBs taken before him, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson.

Lance joins Jimmy Garoppolo in the 49ers' quarterback room for now, and his selection could mean San Francisco holds onto the veteran QB to help ease the rookie into the spotlight. 

Lance may have played only one game since the 2019 season, but his performances in his lone full campaign were enough to catapult him into the conversation as one of the classes top quarterbacks.

In leading the Bison to an FCS National Championship, Lance accounted for 42 total touchdowns and did not throw a single interception.

No other quarterback in the FBS and the FCS with a minimum of 200 pass attempts avoided throwing the ball to an opposition player in 2019.

Lance's tally of 14 rushing touchdowns was bettered by just four quarterbacks across the FBS and the FCS while his rushing average of 6.5 yards was fifth among signal-callers to have registered at least 100 rushing attempts.

In terms of throwing the ball, Lance averaged 9.71 yards per pass attempt in 2019, ranking eighth among all quarterbacks in the FBS and FCS, ahead of Justin Fields (9.25) in 13th and Trevor Lawrence (9.00), who was 18th.

Any quarterback with Lance's limited experience at FCS level poses a significant gamble but, in his brief time on the field, Lance demonstrated a versatile range of abilities that mesh perfectly with where the game is going at the quarterback position.

Widely praised for the intelligence he has displayed in pre-draft meetings, if he can use his smarts to quickly adapt to the pros and reproduce what he did in Fargo in the NFL, the pay-off will be huge for San Francisco.

Behind closed doors at the home of the North Dakota State Bison, Lance threw in front of several teams in his 'second pro day', having shown off his remarkable arm at his first.

The sequel showcase was undoubtedly primarily aimed at impressing Kyle Shanahan, head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, whose trade up to the third overall pick for a successor to much-maligned and oft-injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has given them control of a draft in which the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are widely expected to select Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson one and two.

Whether Lance did enough to convince the Niners he should be the third player off the board remains to be seen. However, if he did, then San Francisco would be taking one of the most significant risks in the history of the NFL Draft.

Lawrence, Wilson, Justin Fields and Mac Jones all have varying strengths and weaknesses, but it is Lance who stands as the draft's ultimate wild card.

Limited second-tier seasoning

He will enter the league with just one full season of college experience - and an uneven 'showcase game' against Central Arkansas last year - after the coronavirus pandemic pushed the Bison's 2020 season into the spring of 2021. And Lance only averaged around 18 pass attempts in a run-heavy offense in his sole campaign.

In addition to inexperience, the level of competition is also a question-mark against Lance's name, his 16 games in 2019 coming in the FCS, college football's second tier. Bison alumnus Carson Wentz made the grade in the NFL, at least initially, playing at the same level, but the pithy cliche about college prospects often playing against 'future insurance salesmen' is one all too easily applied to Lance.

Yet so impressive were his performances in 2019 that Lance represents an enticing potential project for coaches like Shanahan, and there is significant visual and statistical evidence to suggest he can silence doubts about his inexperience and lack of elite opposition to develop into one of the NFL's most exciting young quarterbacks.

Boundless throwing upside

The raw yardage numbers do not make for spectacular reading for Lance, who finished 2019 with 2,786 passing yards.

However, that is more down to the philosophy of the NDSU offense rather than any limitations he has as a thrower.

Lance averaged 9.71 yards per pass attempt in 2019, ranking eighth among all quarterbacks in the FBS and FCS, with Fields (9.25) 13th and Lawrence (9.00) 18th.

His completion percentage of 66.9 was 17th across the FBS and FCS, below Fields (67.2) but above Lawrence (65.8) and it could have been markedly higher had Lance been more consistent with his downfield accuracy.

Blessed with arm strength that makes throws to all levels of the field available to him, Lance can hit on the deep ball with unerring placement but, unsurprisingly for a player of his limited experience, underthrows and overthrows were also a regular feature of his time with the Bison.

While that may be a concern in terms of his immediate impact at the next level, the fact he still connected on passes at that rate while often missing downfield is illustrative of the room to grow that has many believing he could end up being the best pro of this crop of quarterbacks.

A calm head on young shoulders

Lance's composure and his discipline in taking care of the football should make his transition to the pros smoother and potentially more expedient.

The standout number from his 2019 campaign was his interception tally. Zero. No other quarterback in the FBS and the FCS with a minimum of 200 pass attempts avoided throwing the ball to an opposition player.

That is not to say there weren't instances where Lance was fortunate not to be picked off, and he was finally intercepted in his sole 2020 appearance, but the consistency of his decision-making combined with the fact his blemish-free season came in a year where he also accounted for 42 touchdowns played a significant role in his rapid rise up draft boards.

Fourteen of those scores came in an area of the game where his case for having the edge over the rest of the first-round quarterbacks is most impressive.

Dual-threat dominance

A devastatingly effectively runner in the open field, Lance is a frightening dual-threat who builds speed with long strides and uses every inch of an imposing 6ft 4in and 226-pound frame to inflict punishment on opposing defenders and barrel them over for extra yardage.

Only four quarterbacks across the FBS and FCS had more rushing touchdowns than Lance's 14, while his rushing average of 6.5 was fifth among signal-callers to have registered at least 100 rushing attempts.

Lawrence's 2019 rushing average was only a yard shy of Lance's as the Clemson phenom added nine scores on the ground.

Fields had 10 rushing touchdowns in his sophomore campaign, with that duo each continuing to excel as runners in 2020 as Wilson also produced a demonstration of his athletic upside last season with 10 scores (Lawrence had eight and Fields five).

But none of that trio have proven as physically dominant as Lance when he gets into space and it is the blend of his upside as a rusher and the variety of high-difficulty throws at his dispsoal that makes the prospect of putting him at the helm of a pro offense such an enticing one.

The determination the 49ers and other teams eyeing a quarterback in the draft must make is whether his astronomical ceiling is worth the risk of investing in a player whose bridge from high school to the pros was essentially one season of bullyball against second-rate opponents.

Regardless of how his career ultimately turns out, Lance's diverse and dynamic skill set ensures the team that decides to take that gamble is in for a thrilling ride.

The 20-year-old took a call from 49ers general manager John Lynch to welcome him into the fold, with head coach Kyle Shanahan and team CEO Jed York also taking the time to speak to Lance.

Now he will step up from North Dakota State to the big time, and Lance said: "I'm obviously just excited now for this opportunity."

He said of the scrutiny leading up to the draft: "I understand it's a critiquing process because that's what it is. It's probably the longest job interview that I ever thought I'd have, but I don't think I could have been in a better situation.

"I'm super excited to get there and learn, and at this point the biggest thing for me is getting there, getting to know the coaching staff and my teammates and the guys in the quarterback room."

Lance will be expected to swiftly provide competition for San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who looks set to ease the newcomer into the NFL spotlight.

"I'm just focused on getting there learning as much as I possibly can and getting to know Jimmy and the guys in the room," Lance said.

As for the big telephone call, Lance said: "It was pretty emotional for me right away, kind of a surreal feeling. You never really knew unless you knew.

"I feel super thankful for everyone that's helped me get to this point.

"I know the coaching staff and the guys in the quarterback room are going to push me and help me compete and help me learn, so that's the biggest thing. I'm just looking forward to it."

In leading the Bison to an FCS National Championship in the 2019 season, Lance accounted for 42 total touchdowns and did not throw a single interception.

No other quarterback in the FBS and the FCS with a minimum of 200 pass attempts avoided throwing the ball to an opposition player in that campaign.

He carries a dual threat too, with Lance's 14 rushing touchdowns bettered by just four quarterbacks across the FBS and the FCS, and his rushing average of 6.5 yards was fifth among signal-callers to have registered at least 100 rushing attempts.

Shanahan was delighted to tie up the deal, saying: "I'm glad that it's over. I'm glad that we got our guy. I'm glad that we feel so good about it and I'm just pumped to get him here."