The Premier League will reach a new milestone on Sunday when Manchester City face Liverpool in a titanic title tussle.

This will be the 50th match between the top two teams in the division in the competition's history, with City boasting a one-point advantage over Liverpool heading into this encounter.

Victory would move Jurgen Klopp's men top for the first time since October, having trailed by as many as 14 points back in January.

Of the 49 previous top-two meetings, the leaders have come out on top in 20, 11 have been drawn and 18 won by the second-placed team – including one of only two previous examples when City and Liverpool have been the sides at the summit. City thrashed newly crowned champions Liverpool 4-0 in July 2020.

The title race may already have been run on that occasion, but the hunters have consistently fared better than the hunted in such clashes across recent seasons.

The top team have beaten their nearest rivals in only one of the past eight matches to take place in the final 10 games of a season.

Consensus has it that victory for Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium – following that theme – would be followed by a successful title charge for the Reds.

But it has not always been so straightforward, as Stats Perform analyses a history of Premier League title deciders.

United rewarded for holding their nerve (1992-97)

Manchester United won four of the first five Premier League titles after three times holding their nerve against fellow contenders during the run-in.

Norwich City may now prop up the table, but they led the way at the start of April in the inaugural 1992-93 campaign, while United were back in third.

Although that is not the latest eventual champions have emerged from outside the top two – City were third at the start of May in 2013-14 – United had to do it the hard way by heading to Carrow Road in their next match.

Their performance there set the standard for two decades of dominance, as a scintillating first-half display saw three stunning breakaway goals in a 3-1 win. Five days later, Steve Bruce scored a pair of famous late goals against Sheffield Wednesday and United were top.

Alex Ferguson's side retained their title despite losing late in the next campaign to Blackburn Rovers, who were themselves champions the following season, but one of the most notable deciders went United's way in 1995-96. The Red Devils had trailed Newcastle United by 12 points in January but knew a win at St James' Park would trim the deficit to a single point.

That was exactly how it played out, too, as Eric Cantona – who created the first and netted the third at Norwich in 1993 – hit a winner against the run of play.

That was the start of a career-best run of six games in a row in which Cantona scored and the first of five consecutive United goals that came courtesy of their talisman – a feat since repeated only three times (Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2003, Cristiano Ronaldo in 2007 and Robin van Persie in 2013). Four of the six games ended 1-0.

Newcastle would also end 1996-97 as United's closest challengers, but it was the turn of Liverpool – who finished fourth – to blow a big lead.

The gap to United was 10 points in December, when Ferguson's side were sixth, yet Liverpool were two points behind by the time they welcomed their rivals to Anfield in mid-April. A pair of David James errors gave the visitors a precious victory en route to another title triumph.

Double delight for Arsenal at Old Trafford (1997-2004)

From the 1997-98 season onwards, United had consistent title rivals in Arsenal. And although United finished top in four of the next seven seasons to Arsenal's three, there were a pair of painful defeats for Ferguson.

While Newcastle's collapse from 12 points in front is most widely remembered – chiefly because the Magpies are still to win the Premier League – the competition record belongs to United's class of 1997-98, who allowed Arsenal to make up a 13-point deficit in the first season after Cantona's retirement.

There were still nine points between the sides before they met at Old Trafford in mid-March, but Arsenal had three games in hand and won 1-0 courtesy of a Marc Overmars goal – their first away to United in the Premier League – that capped a dazzling individual display. They led the table a month later.

That season ended with a double for Arsenal, and so too did the 2001-02 campaign, in which they again claimed a 1-0 victory at United. The Sylvain Wiltord-inspired success, days after winning the FA Cup, came in the penultimate game of the season and made Arsenal champions.

It was the first of only two occasions on which the title has been won in a match between two teams who were still in the running, while the top two in the Premier League have never met later in a campaign.

Chelsea take challenge to United (2004-2011)

Chelsea replaced Arsenal as perennial threats to United and their second consecutive title in 2005-06 was sealed with a 3-0 win over Ferguson's men, although the championship was essentially a formality at that point.

Meetings in subsequent years were more keenly contested. There was precious little between the two teams in 2007-08, when the Champions League final was decided on penalties, and a late-season Chelsea win at Stamford Bridge moved the teams level on points. However, the Blues' inferior goal difference and final-day draw with Bolton Wanderers allowed United to take the title regardless.

It was a different story in 2009-10, though. There was just a point separating leaders United from chasing Chelsea this time, and an away win at Old Trafford through goals from Joe Cole and Didier Drogba put the Blues in command, able to themselves seal the deal on the final day.

And yet the two dominant teams of this era were not done there. A May meeting back at Old Trafford the following season could have seen Chelsea snatch the championship away from United again, but Javier Hernandez scored inside a matter of seconds to set the Red Devils on course for a victory that crucially moved them six clear. That represents the last time the leaders beat the second-placed team during the run-in.

City serene since crucial Kompany winner (2011-2022)

United have won the title only once since 2010-11, while neighbours City have been crowned on five occasions in that time – and they have largely avoided the drama Ferguson's side made their benchmark.

Of course, their breakthrough triumph in 2011-12 was an exception to that, as City had to beat United even before Sergio Aguero's last-day heroics. Vincent Kompany's header moved the teams level on points, with goal difference vitally working in his side's favour.

Only four times since then have the top two faced off over the final 10 matches of the season, including Liverpool's 2013-14 defeat to Chelsea when neither team won the title and City's 2019-20 thrashing off the Reds when the league had already been settled.

City, in 2012-13, and United, in 2017-18, each claimed away derby wins that restored pride but could not prevent title processions. United's win at least denied City the delight of clinching the title against their neighbours.

The closest City and Liverpool have come to a true decider might be a January epic in 2018-19, but that should all change on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy will hope to build on an encouraging start on day two at The Masters and claimed his first-round one-over 73 was the "worst I could have shot".

The Northern Irishman headed to Augusta National searching to complete the elusive career grand slam for an eighth attempt, and sits six shots behind leader Im Sung-jae after the opening round on Thursday.

Slow starts have often been McIlroy's problems at the majors, but he felt his "negative" approach paid dividends as he opted for a more conservative route around Augusta.

Four-time major winner McIlroy was satisfied with his first outing as he looks for a first major title since the PGA Championship in 2014, and believes his one-over-par round did not do his efforts justice.

"I am encouraged with how I played. I don't really care where I am at on the leaderboard, it doesn't matter," the 32-year-old said.

"I hit the ball well from tee to green in the most part, I am pleased with that [although] I want to work on my putting.

"I think I hit 12 fairways and 14 greens and just didn't really get a lot out of the round. I hit a lot of greens in the middle and made a lot of easy pars.

"I had a putt at 14 to go two-under for the round with a par five to play but I three-putted that and halted any momentum I had. I think that's the worst I could have shot, I felt I played really well.

"The course is in incredible shape for the amount of rain we have had, so I am looking forward to dry conditions over the next three days."

McIlroy, who is tied for 31st place after his three bogeys cancelled out two birdies, is set to get back in action at 15:45 BST on Friday with playing partners Brooks Koepka and Matthew Fitzpatrick.

While he had no difficulty in parring the first hole on the opening day, McIlroy believes the nerves of that initial tee shot at The Masters never fade away.

"The hour or two leading up to that first tee shot there are nerves and anxiety," he added. "Once you get the first tee shot out of the way it is business as usual.

"I usually envision, 'what's the worst place I could hit it off the tee?' I then think, 'okay, I could probably make four from there'. That is how I settle myself down."

Jurgen Klopp is savouring the sporting battle between Liverpool and Manchester City despite the high stakes that accompany Sunday's possible title decider, describing their rivalry as "cool".

In order to beat Manchester City in the 2019-20 season and win Liverpool's first domestic league title in three decades, Klopp's side had to claim 99 points, achieving a record-equalling 18 consecutive wins.

Whoever claims three points on Sunday would not only earn potentially decisive breathing room in the Premier League title race but would also crack the 75-point mark with seven games still to play.

Speaking at his pre-match news conference, the Liverpool boss made specific reference to the remarkable levels of consistency the two teams have pushed each other to, especially in the traditionally competitive Premier League.

"It's cool," Klopp said. "The last four years since we stepped up and could close the gap to City slightly, it's interesting absolutely. We push each other to incredible points tallies, madness. I would have never thought these kind of things are possible, especially not in this league.

"The consistency both teams have shown in that period is absolutely crazy.

"In sports, what helps you the most is a strong opponent. Especially, [Rafael] Nadal and [Roger] Federer enjoyed a lot the rivalry they had. I wouldn't say I'm thankful that City is that good but it didn't deny our development."

Paulo Dybala should have demanded a one-year contract to prove his worth to Juventus if he was happy in Turin, according to former Bianconeri boss Fabio Capello.

Argentina international Dybala is set to see his time at the Allianz Stadium comes to its conclusion when his contract expires at the end of the season.

The forward has 113 goals across all competitions for Juve, ranking him third all-time among the club’s non-Italian scorers, behind only David Trezeguet (171) and John Hansen (124).

Fellow Serie A competitors Inter and Premier League side Tottenham, managed by former Nerazzurri coach Antonio Conte, are reportedly among the favourites to secure Dybala's signature for the next campaign.

But Capello believes if the 28-year-old was settled at Juve then he should have pleaded with the club for another chance, while he heaped praise on Massimiliano Allegri's new star striker Dusan Vlahovic.

"I like Vlahovic, he has pace, physical strength and desire to improve," he told Italian outlet Corriere dello Sport. "He knows how to work for the team and stay inside the box.

"But Max [Allegri] is right when he says that he must learn how to play in a top club, managing the pressure and the different phases in a game.

"You can't question Dybala technically, but he has had some fitness issues. If he was happy in Turin, he should have challenged Juventus. Ask them for a one-year contract and show how much he's worth.

"The same goes for [Roma forward Nicolo] Zaniolo. He suffered two serious injuries and remained out for 18 months. He must rediscover self-confidence because he has the technical skills."

Capello also expressed his concern for the state of Italian football, with the Azzurri missing out on two straight World Cups and no Serie A side in the Champions League quarter-finals.

Roma and Atalanta are the only two Italian sides left in the Europa League, and former England manager Capello believes Italy are way behind their international competitors.

"Italian football is far behind the others. The ball doesn't move quickly, referees blow the whistle too often," he added. "They stop the play too frequently. Every challenge is a foul, so there is never intensity, our teams do not learn to keep up the pace.

"We have fallen behind, in every sense, but the main problem is that the best players no longer come to Italy, so there is no comparison with the best. 

"I don't learn anything if what should help me grow is of the same level as me, has my same knowledge, identical experiences"

Allegri acknowledged his reluctance to use young players in an interview on Friday, and the preference to utilise more experienced players is a problem thought to spread across the whole of the Italian game.

Capello expects no quick fixes as he cited the progression of other countries to learn from.

"Even eight. In Italy, everyone intervenes," he responded when asked if it would take five or six years to return Italy to the top of the footballing pyramid.

"As for youth sectors, those in charge should have a trip to Spain where they work on the technique, not on tactics."

Manchester City are allegedly the subject of a three-year Premier League investigation on illegal payments, sponsorship deals and hidden salary payments, according to German newspaper Der Spiegel.

The publication, working with the European Investigative Collaborations (EIC) journalism network, also undertook their own investigation with their findings suggesting City have been questioned on these three areas.

Der Spiegel alleges City pressured underage players "to sign contracts through monetary payments, in violation of the rules", and of paying a "significant portion" of former manager Roberto Mancini's compensation with a "fictitious consultancy contract".

The German outlet also claims sponsors in Abu Dhabi only provide a "portion of their payments" to the club, with owner Sheikh Mansour – a member of the Abu Dhabi ruling family – covering the difference.

City are said to believe Der Spiegel's claims are part of an orchestrated attempt to cause damage to the club amid a crucial period on the pitch, following the publication's previous reporting of Financial Fair Play (FFP) irregularities. 

The newspaper reported in November 2018 that it had seen internal documents showing City officials discussed how to wipe out a £9.9million shortfall five years earlier.

That sparked an investigation by UEFA in 2018, with the governing body issuing a two-season ban from European competition and a €30million fine to City for "serious breaches" of FFP regulations between 2012 and 2016.

However, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) subsequently investigated the matter in 2020 and overturned the ban, finding no "conclusive evidence" on inflated sponsorship deals, despite acknowledging City had shown a "blatant disregard" to UEFA's investigation.

City lost a ruling by the court of appeal the following year that confirmed they were under continued investigation by the Premier League for alleged FFP breaches.

The club's legal team did not want it reported that it was challenging the jurisdiction of Premier League arbitrators, while also fighting a request to disclose documents and information to the panel in the case.

It's matchday 32. No midweek games and precious points to pick up in the run home.

It's that time of the year when the unconventional pick can define one's season. Who dares wins, in other words.

With that in mind, let Stats Perform lead you by the hand with Opta data as we pick four players who might just give you those precious extra points in the latest Premier League gameweek.

VICENTE GUAITA (Leicester City v Crystal Palace)

The last time Leicester were kept scoreless at home by Crystal Palace in the Premier League was in December 2017, when Claude Puel was still manager of the Foxes.

In 2022, however, only Alisson and Ederson have kept more clean sheets than Vicente Guaita in the Premiership, with Guaita's four coming in his last five appearances.

Of the seven highest rankings in the Premier League for clean sheets in the new year, Guaita also has the third-highest percentage of shots saved at 75.86 per cent.

REECE JAMES (Southampton v Chelsea)

Despite the nature of their Champions League defeat to Real Madrid, against Southampton this weekend, it is almost a certainty that Chelsea will have the bulk of possession.

As a consequence of how Thomas Tuchel's side plays, Chelsea's wingbacks are very prominent in and around the penalty area.

Among Premier League defenders this season, no player has scored more goals than Reece James this season, while Antonio Rudiger is also second.

CHRISTIAN ERIKSEN (Brentford v West Ham)

Needing to back up from Thursday's tussle in the Europa League against Lyon, West Ham could be vulnerable.

Brentford's Christian Eriksen has either scored or assisted in his last two Premier League games for the Bees, while the Dane last did so in three consecutive Premier League appearances in April 2019. 

In three Premier League starts for Brentford this season, they have won all three games, and Eriksen has completed the most passes (111) in those games, played the most passes into the penalty area (26) and created the most chances (five).

HARRY KANE (Aston Villa v Tottenham)

Tottenham are starting to find their rhythm under Antonio Conte, even despite March's 3-2 defeat to Manchester United, and Harry Kane remains as pivotal as ever.

No player in the Premier League has contributed to more goals in 2022 than Kane, with eight goals and five assists over that period.

Kane has also been involved in a goal in each of his last six Premier League appearances, and only between July and November 2020 (eight games) has he been on a longer streak.

It is set to be the biggest match the Premier League has seen since, well, since the last time these two met during a fierce title race.

In 2019, Manchester City and Liverpool were slugging it out at the top of the table when they met at the Etihad Stadium, with Pep Guardiola's men edging a tight encounter 2-1, ultimately winning the league by a single point, 98 to 97.

That clash came in the January, though. This time, with both teams again separated by just one point, and with only eight games to go, it feels like it could be all or nothing when they meet on Sunday.

Both behemoths have numerous players who could play a crucial role, with match winners all over the pitch in either sky blue or red shirts.

However, two players in particular could arguably be held up as representations of both their teams, their approaches and their identity.

The journeys from transition to world-class of these City and Liverpool teams did not happen overnight, just like it didn't for two players who are now among the best full-backs in the game.

It has been said that Joao Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold are redefining the role in their own unique ways, and in doing so, becoming defining players in their respective teams.

It is strange to think that during his first season at City in 2019-20, there were doubts raised about Cancelo's signing, valued at around £60m as part of a swap deal for the outgoing Danilo, who replaced Cancelo at Juventus.

However, the Portugal international was a key part of his team's recovery from a poor start last season to eventually ease to the Premier League title, before featuring prominently again this time around as Pep Guardiola's men chase a treble.

Cancelo was signed as a right-back but has shown his quality further still by adapting to playing at left-back, which is where he has recently been most effective for City, despite being right-footed.

Alexander-Arnold came through Liverpool's youth ranks, interestingly enough as a central midfielder, only moving to right-back as it seemed the quickest route into the first team.

Some early teething problems due to inexperience and size were understandable, but by the age of 21, he had already won the Champions League and Premier League.

He recently received one of the ultimate compliments, with Barcelona legend Dani Alves listing him as one of his favourite right-backs in the modern game.

The Brazilian – who is back at Barca for a second spell – told FourFourTwo magazine: "I admire Trent Alexander-Arnold very much. He's a fantastic footballer – this guy has got world-class skills."

How do they compare, though?

In an attacking sense, per game this season in all competitions, Cancelo has taken more shots than Alexander-Arnold (1.90 to 1.54) as well as having more touches (106.87 to 98.44), more touches in the opposition box (2.67 to 2.26) and more passes ending in the final third (30.86 to 28.21).

The Liverpool man is, perhaps unsurprisingly, more creative, having twice as many assists (16 to eight), more chances created from open play per game (1.56 to 1.05), more successful long passes (6.37 to 4.05) and almost twice as many passes played into the box (12.07 to 6.82).

No player in the Premier League comes close to Alexander-Arnold when it comes to switching flanks and moving the opposition across the pitch, with the England international doing so 57 times in the league this season, 20 times more than anyone else (Ruben Neves of Wolves is second with 37). Cancelo is third in the league overall for this, having done so 32 times so far.

Going the other way, Alexander-Arnold gets more than his fair share of scrutiny for his defending, but the numbers suggest this is unfair, or at least that there are aspects of his game that are better than Cancelo, who is correctly considered to be a very capable defender.

No City player has made more tackles (63) or interceptions (49) than Cancelo in the Premier League this season.

Cancelo competes in far more duels than his Liverpool rival per game in all competitions (11.54 to 5.42), with a success rate only slightly lower (1.27 to 1.32), while also making more tackles per game (2.05 to 1.23) and interceptions (1.85 to 1.31).

However, Alexander-Arnold has won possession more often (7.32 times per game to 5.7), conceded fewer fouls per game (0.31 to 1.07) and been dribbled past by an opponent fewer times per game (1.06 to 1.2).

The statistic that most people associate with Cancelo is the amount of touches he takes, comfortably the most in the Premier League, currently at 3,070 this season.

Alexander-Arnold has taken the next most with 2,490, ahead of Rodri (2,489), Aymeric Laporte (2,453) and Virgil van Dijk (2,402).

The Liverpool right-back, on the other hand, is more known for his creativity, and like Cancelo, the numbers back him up again this season.

In all competitions and across the top five European leagues, no player has created more than his 23 big chances – which is an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score – while in Premier League games, no player has created more than his 77 chances.

It is not just these more obvious metrics where the two are influencing things, though.

In terms of open play sequences involved in – defined as passages of open play that belong to one team and are ended by defensive actions, stoppages in play or a shot – they both lead the way in the Premier League this season, with Cancelo on 1,737 (62.3 per 90) and Alexander-Arnold on 1,555 (60.5 per 90), ahead of Rodri in third place on 1,447 (59.4 per 90).

Cancelo has also been involved in more open play shot-ending sequences than any other City player this season (191, or 6.9 per 90), while Alexander-Arnold ranks third among Liverpool players (144, or 5.6 per 90), behind only Mohamed Salah (192, or 7.4 per 90) and Sadio Mane (150, or 6.0 per 90).

With numbers like this, it is tempting to suggest that both could play in midfield, but that would be to do a disservice to the roles they currently fill at full back. They dominate from there with ease, and where is the sense in meddling with that?

They impressed again in midweek as their teams secured leads in the first legs of their Champions League quarter-finals, with Alexander-Arnold playing an incredible long ball to Luis Diaz to set up Liverpool's second goal at Benfica.

Both men are at the top of their games, and will need to be again when they meet in one of the biggest games the Premier League has ever seen on Sunday.

Manchester City remain the likely Premier League champions and are on course to pip weekend opponents Liverpool to the title as the race reaches its home straight.

The top two each have eight games remaining and the first comes on Sunday when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium in what many are billing a title decider.

That is hyperbole of course, but for City it is the last time they will face a team currently in the top five, so by that logical reasoning it is the game where they are most likely to slip up.

Arsenal are the team likeliest to snatch fourth place and a Champions League ticket for next season, while at the foot of the table it is almost too close to call between Everton and Burnley for the third relegation place, with Leeds United now standing just a 12.2 per cent chance of sliding down to the Championship.

Stats Perform AI analysis has given us a strong sense of how the standings might look come the season's final whistle on Sunday, May 22, but the figures also show us there remains plenty to play for.

PEP TO WIN THE TITLE BATTLE AGAIN?

Pep Guardiola's City head into the crucial contest with a one-point advantage over a Liverpool side who have been closing the gap since trailing by 14 points on January 15, albeit with Jurgen Klopp's Reds having played two fewer games at that time.

It is clear this remains a title race that could yet go either way, but City stand a 65.6 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy for a second season in a row, with Liverpool, their lone rivals for silverware, having a 34.4 per cent opportunity.

Diego Simeone described City as "an extraordinary rival" after Atletico Madrid's 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, and the second leg of that Champions League tie follows three days after the Liverpool game.

City's Premier League opponents for the remainder of the campaign will then be, in order: Brighton (home), Watford (home), Leeds United (away), Newcastle United (home), West Ham (away) and Aston Villa (home), with a trip to Wolves also to be arranged for a date to be confirmed.

Liverpool, also with Champions League commitments and an FA Cup semi-final against City to come, have what looks a more daunting Premier League run-in after this weekend, beginning with two huge Anfield games: Manchester United (home), Everton (home), Newcastle (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), Southampton (away), Wolves (home).

They are 64.7 per cent likely to finish as runners-up, the Stats Perform prediction shows, and 0.9 per cent likely to be caught by Chelsea for second place. City are 0.3 per cent likely to throw it away and finish third. Now that would be some story.

Of all teams in the top flight, third-placed Chelsea are the most likely to finish in their current position. That is calculated as a 94.5 per cent probability.

GO FOURTH AND PROSPER?

The last Champions League qualifying berth is the prize that looks to be a slug-off between north London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal, who will meet in a May 12 derby.

Both sit on 54 points heading into this weekend, with Tottenham fourth for now but Arsenal having played one fewer game.

Momentum could change considerably, but for now Arsenal are predicted to have a 59.1 per cent chance of taking fourth spot, with Tottenham given a 31.9 per cent shot (50.8 per cent to be fifth).

Who else might take fourth and secure the riches that come with Champions League involvement? Well, Chelsea are reckoned to have a 4.0 per cent prospect of slipping there (and a 0.3 per cent chance of nose-diving to fifth), while Manchester United are three points adrift of Spurs and the Gunners, sitting in seventh ahead of a weekend trip to struggling Everton, and are given a 4.2 per cent hope of finishing so high.

That would be a massive boost to United's next boss, but it remains a slim hope. In fact, United's most likely finishing position, according to the predictor, is sixth place (46.1 per cent).

Former Red Devils boss David Moyes has probably seen his West Ham side's hopes of a top-four finish slip away. The Hammers are also just three points behind Tottenham and Arsenal but have played more games than both and are given a trifling 0.7 per cent chance of coming home fourth.

GOING DOWN WITH THE NORWICH?

The Canaries of Norwich are so far down the relegation pit of despair they can surely smell Championship gas. They stand a 1.3 per chance of survival, and are 81.3 per cent likely to finish rock bottom.

Second-bottom Watford are given an 18 per cent chance of staying up by the predictor, and home games against Leeds, Brentford, Burnley, Everton and Leicester City mean that door to survival should be considered just slightly ajar.

Leeds could yet plummet, but if Norwich and Watford are the likeliest two sides to exit the Premier League, then Burnley and Everton are the two most obviously jostling to avoid joining them.

For now, after a bruising 3-2 defeat at Burnley on Wednesday, Everton are rated 49.4 per cent shots to finish inside the bottom three, compared to 53.2 per cent for Sean Dyche's Clarets.

It is knife-edge stuff, hardly the end of the table where Frank Lampard is at his most comfortable.

Come the final day, Lampard's Everton might need something from a trip to Arsenal, who in turn might need points in that fourth-place battle.

HOW THE NUMBERS ARE WORKED OUT

Stats Perform's League Prediction model simulates the outcomes of the remaining matches to estimate the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) from the latest available betting market odds data or, when not available, by using an internal win probability model that is powered by historical team strengths.

Based on these probabilities, the results of the remaining matches can be simulated. The outcome of the season is simulated 10,000 separate times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.

MVP favorite Nikola Jokic became the first player in NBA history with 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists in a season in the Denver Nuggets' 122-109 home win against the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday, 

He had 35 points, 16 rebounds, six assists and five steals in his game-winning performance.

For the season, Jokic is eighth in the league in points per game (27.0), second in rebounds per game (13.7) and eighth in assists (7.9).

Out of players who average at least 20 minutes per appearance, Jokic is 12th in usage (30.9), which measures the percentage of his team's possessions that end with him shooting or turning the ball over while he is on the court.

Of the league's top 100 players in usage rate, none are shooting better than Jokic's 66.1 True Shooting percentage, which weights three-point shots, two-point shots and free throws to produce a single number.

Only 12 players have a better True Shooting percentage than Jokic, and of those players, Montrezl Harrell has the highest usage, at a role-player number of 19.8.

The Denver big man is also the only non-guard in the top 15 in assist percentage, coming in at sixth (38.8) and trailing only Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Chris Paul, James Harden and Dejounte Murray.

As Nuggets teammate Bones Hyland put it: "Dude is really great at basketball."

Hyland was not the only Nuggets representative to shower Jokic with praise when talking with the media after their win, with coach Michael Malone highlighting that he believes the MVP race has been decided.

"The MVP isn't even a competition," he said.

"There's other great players. I'm not saying they're not great players. But what Nikola Jokic has done this year – with this team – everything we've had to go through, is just incredible.

"He was good last year, and he's even better this year."

Even Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins was at a loss for how to deal with the threat he poses.

"We threw a lot at him,'' he said. "He's the MVP for a reason. He's nearly impossible to guard. 

"He's going to beat you from inside, outside, playmaking. He played at a really high level tonight.''

Meanwhile, Jokic said he was content to let his play do the talking, saying "if that's enough [to win MVP], it's enough… if not, you cannot control that.''

The Miami Heat clinched the first seed in the Eastern Conference, as the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Boston Celtics 127-121 on Thursday.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday each scored 29 points in the win, while the former also added 11 rebounds and five assists. Khris Middleton was close to a triple-double with 22 points on nine-of-18 shooting, along with eight rebounds and nine assists.

On the second night of a back-to-back after their win in Chicago, the Celtics rested Jayson Tatum and Al Horford, and only just lost on the road against a fellow contender in the East.

Marcus Smart shot seven-of-12 from beyond the arc and was the Celtics' leading scorer with a season-high 29 points. Meanwhile, Jaylen Brown came up with a triple-double of 22 points, a career-high 11 assists, along with 10 rebounds.

With the win, however, the Bucks moved past the Celtics into second spot in the East, effectively clinching home court for Miami in the playoffs.

Raps edge past short-handed Sixers

Pascal Siakam put up a triple-double in the Toronto Raptors' 119-114 win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Matisse Thybulle missed the game, raising speculation over whether he is vaccinated against coronavirus, with unvaccinated foreign nationals prohibited from entering Canada.

Siakam's consequent ability to get into the paint counteracted his one-of-seven from the perimeter, putting up 37 points on 14-of-28 shooting, along with 12 assists and 11 rebounds.

Warriors win builds pre-playoff confidence

The Golden State Warriors continued to build momentum without the injured Stephen Curry, securing a 128-112 victory at home to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Having already been eliminated from play-in contention, the Lakers were without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony and Russell Westbrook. Talen Horton-Tucker scored a career-high 40 points on 15-of-28 shooting.

It was the Dubs' third consecutive win and their last game in the Bay Area before the playoffs, heading on the road to San Antonio and New Orleans to close out the regular season.

St Louis Cardinals ace pitcher Adam Wainwright was nearly flawless as he led his side to a 9-0 Opening Day shutout of the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.

Wainwright pitched six scoreless innings, giving up five hits and no walks before being relieved to begin the seventh inning, finishing with 81 pitches.

It was far from a stressful game for the home side, scoring in the first inning through a Tyler O'Neill RBI single, before O'Neill smashed a three-run bomb over the wall an inning later to lead 4-0 through two frames.

The middle innings moved quickly as neither team was able to string baserunners together, but the Cardinals gave the home fans some more to cheer for in the eighth inning with home runs to Tommy Edman and Nolan Arenado.

J.T. Brubaker took the loss for the Pirates, finishing with four hits, three walks and four earned runs in three innings of work.

Super Suzuki wins debut

The Chicago Cubs' high-profile international signing, Seiya Suzuki, collected a hit and two walks from four at-bats in a 5-4 home win against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kyle Hendricks pitched well for the home side, conceding one earned run to go with seven strikeouts before being withdrawn in the sixth inning.

The big moment for Suzuki came as he led-off the fifth inning, sending a base hit to shallow left field for his first career knock after signing a five-year, $85million deal out of the Japanese league this off-season.

The Bobby Witt Jr era begins in Kansas City

While Suzuki is favourite to take home the NL MVP, the Kansas City Royals' Bobby Witt Jr is the favourite in the AL, and delivered on debut in his side's 3-1 home win against the Cleveland Guardians.

After three outs from his first three at-bats, Witt delivered when it mattered, finding the gap with a RBI double in the eighth inning to give his side a 2-1 lead, and then came around and scored himself to finish it off.

Ohtani makes history in Angels loss    

It was not a great Opening Day for the Los Angeles Angels, but reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani made history once again.

In the Angels' 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros, Ohtani became the first player to start on the pitchers' mound and lead-off the batting, throwing and facing Los Angeles' first pitch of the season.

He finished with nine strikeouts and one earned run before being withdrawn in the fifth inning after 80 pitches, while going zero-for-four from his plate appearances.

Thursday's results

Atlanta Braves 3-6 Cincinnati Reds

St Louis Cardinals 9-0 Pittsburgh Pirates

Kansas City Royals 3-1 Cleveland Guardians

Chicago Cubs 5-4 Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets 5-1 Washington Nationals

Arizona Diamondbacks 4-2 San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Angels 1-3 Houston Astros

Red Sox at Yankees

The two historic rivals will kick off their seasons at Yankee Stadium on Friday in the first scheduled game of the day.

Taylor Fritz saw his way past Alejandro Tabilo to advance to the quarter-finals at the US Men's Clay Court Championships, winning 6-1 6-4 on Thursday.

Fresh off his maiden ATP 1000 title at Indian Wells and fourth-round run in Miami, the American world number 13 needed just 62 minutes to win in straight sets, in his first clay court match for the season.

Fritz's serve was not particularly secure, though, with the unseeded Tabilo converting on only one of six break point attempts. Fritz was more efficient and assertive when opportunities presented on the other hand, taking two of three break point chances on Tabilo's serve while winning 12 out of 19 points returning on his second serve.

Despite the Chilean world number 100 fighting back to 4-4 from 3-0 down in the second set, Fritz steadied to close out the match.

"I felt like tonight was going to be a really tough match, given he's done really well on clay," Fritz said post-match. "It was my first match [on clay]. I'm pretty happy with how I played. I can't complain, I got out of that pretty solid."

Fritz will now face another Chilean, fifth seed and defending champion Cristian Garin, who came back from a set down to defeat Jordan Thompson 3-6 6-3 6-3.

Entering the Houston event on a five-match losing streak, Garin has come from behind in back-to-back matches to win.

Sixth seed Frances Tiafoe also went the distance on Thursday, earning a 5-7 7-5 7-6 (7-4) win over Uruguayan Pablo Cuevas.

With neither garnering break point chances in the third set, Tiafoe finally created breathing room by winning four straight points at 2-2 in the deciding tie-break, before closing out the match.

It sets up an all-American quarter-final with John Isner, who defeated Steve Johnson 6-7 (1-7) 7-6 (7-4) 6-3 in Thursday's final game.

Im Sung-Jae was delighted to be alone atop the leaderboard after round one of his second appearance at The Masters.

The South Korean had an incredible debut at Augusta National, finishing tied with Cameron Smith for second place in 2020.

Im finished Thursday's round five under after birdieing his first three holes of the day, also collecting a birdie on the seventh to card a four under front-nine.

After consecutive bogeys to start the back nine, he recovered in style, nabbing an eagle on the par-five 13th, and another birdie on 15.

Speaking to the media after his first round, the former runner-up highlighted how much confidence his previous success has given him.

"It was great to have a great finish at my Masters debut, and because of that experience I feel comfortable when I come to Augusta," he said. "I feel like I can play well here every time.

"My preparation stays the same for each tournament, but I felt like my driving game was not as up to par as what it used to be, so I worked on my driving, and today the key to a successful round was having good tee shots.

"The key to the good round today was just getting off to a hot start. I birdied the first three holes, and that's what got me on to a good rhythm."