Manchester City remain the likely Premier League champions and are on course to pip weekend opponents Liverpool to the title as the race reaches its home straight.
The top two each have eight games remaining and the first comes on Sunday when they go head-to-head at the Etihad Stadium in what many are billing a title decider.
That is hyperbole of course, but for City it is the last time they will face a team currently in the top five, so by that logical reasoning it is the game where they are most likely to slip up.
Arsenal are the team likeliest to snatch fourth place and a Champions League ticket for next season, while at the foot of the table it is almost too close to call between Everton and Burnley for the third relegation place, with Leeds United now standing just a 12.2 per cent chance of sliding down to the Championship.
Stats Perform AI analysis has given us a strong sense of how the standings might look come the season's final whistle on Sunday, May 22, but the figures also show us there remains plenty to play for.
PEP TO WIN THE TITLE BATTLE AGAIN?
Pep Guardiola's City head into the crucial contest with a one-point advantage over a Liverpool side who have been closing the gap since trailing by 14 points on January 15, albeit with Jurgen Klopp's Reds having played two fewer games at that time.
It is clear this remains a title race that could yet go either way, but City stand a 65.6 per cent chance of carrying off the trophy for a second season in a row, with Liverpool, their lone rivals for silverware, having a 34.4 per cent opportunity.
Diego Simeone described City as "an extraordinary rival" after Atletico Madrid's 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, and the second leg of that Champions League tie follows three days after the Liverpool game.
City's Premier League opponents for the remainder of the campaign will then be, in order: Brighton (home), Watford (home), Leeds United (away), Newcastle United (home), West Ham (away) and Aston Villa (home), with a trip to Wolves also to be arranged for a date to be confirmed.
Liverpool, also with Champions League commitments and an FA Cup semi-final against City to come, have what looks a more daunting Premier League run-in after this weekend, beginning with two huge Anfield games: Manchester United (home), Everton (home), Newcastle (away), Tottenham (home), Aston Villa (away), Southampton (away), Wolves (home).
They are 64.7 per cent likely to finish as runners-up, the Stats Perform prediction shows, and 0.9 per cent likely to be caught by Chelsea for second place. City are 0.3 per cent likely to throw it away and finish third. Now that would be some story.
Of all teams in the top flight, third-placed Chelsea are the most likely to finish in their current position. That is calculated as a 94.5 per cent probability.
GO FOURTH AND PROSPER?
The last Champions League qualifying berth is the prize that looks to be a slug-off between north London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal, who will meet in a May 12 derby.
Both sit on 54 points heading into this weekend, with Tottenham fourth for now but Arsenal having played one fewer game.
Momentum could change considerably, but for now Arsenal are predicted to have a 59.1 per cent chance of taking fourth spot, with Tottenham given a 31.9 per cent shot (50.8 per cent to be fifth).
Who else might take fourth and secure the riches that come with Champions League involvement? Well, Chelsea are reckoned to have a 4.0 per cent prospect of slipping there (and a 0.3 per cent chance of nose-diving to fifth), while Manchester United are three points adrift of Spurs and the Gunners, sitting in seventh ahead of a weekend trip to struggling Everton, and are given a 4.2 per cent hope of finishing so high.
That would be a massive boost to United's next boss, but it remains a slim hope. In fact, United's most likely finishing position, according to the predictor, is sixth place (46.1 per cent).
Former Red Devils boss David Moyes has probably seen his West Ham side's hopes of a top-four finish slip away. The Hammers are also just three points behind Tottenham and Arsenal but have played more games than both and are given a trifling 0.7 per cent chance of coming home fourth.
GOING DOWN WITH THE NORWICH?
The Canaries of Norwich are so far down the relegation pit of despair they can surely smell Championship gas. They stand a 1.3 per chance of survival, and are 81.3 per cent likely to finish rock bottom.
Second-bottom Watford are given an 18 per cent chance of staying up by the predictor, and home games against Leeds, Brentford, Burnley, Everton and Leicester City mean that door to survival should be considered just slightly ajar.
Leeds could yet plummet, but if Norwich and Watford are the likeliest two sides to exit the Premier League, then Burnley and Everton are the two most obviously jostling to avoid joining them.
For now, after a bruising 3-2 defeat at Burnley on Wednesday, Everton are rated 49.4 per cent shots to finish inside the bottom three, compared to 53.2 per cent for Sean Dyche's Clarets.
It is knife-edge stuff, hardly the end of the table where Frank Lampard is at his most comfortable.
Come the final day, Lampard's Everton might need something from a trip to Arsenal, who in turn might need points in that fourth-place battle.
HOW THE NUMBERS ARE WORKED OUT
Stats Perform's League Prediction model simulates the outcomes of the remaining matches to estimate the likelihood of teams finishing in each position.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) from the latest available betting market odds data or, when not available, by using an internal win probability model that is powered by historical team strengths.
Based on these probabilities, the results of the remaining matches can be simulated. The outcome of the season is simulated 10,000 separate times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
Erik Ten Hag says reaction to Manchester United’s FA Cup win was ’embarrassing’
Erik Ten Hag has branded the reaction to Manchester United’s FA Cup semi-final victory over Coventry “embarrassing” and “a disgrace”.
Having let slip a 3-0 lead at Wembley with 20 minutes to go and then won on penalties after the Championship side had an extra-time goal disallowed for a marginal offside, United were heavily criticised by pundits and fans alike despite making it back-to-back finals.
Ten Hag met a question about whether he understood the response at a press conference ahead of Wednesday’s clash against Sheffield United with a feisty response, saying: “No, absolutely not.
“The question: ‘Is it embarrassing?’ No, the reaction from you was embarrassing. It is the comments. Top football is about results, we made it to a final and we deserved it not only by this game but also the other games.
“We lost control for 20 minutes, we also had bad luck, 3-2, 3-3. We were very lucky in the end, clear. Penalties was very good and we made it to the final, it is a huge achievement. Twice in two years is magnificent.
“For me as a manager, four cup finals in four years. The comments are a disgrace.”
Antony has come in for particular criticism after he cupped his ear with his hand in a mocking gesture towards the Coventry players when Rasmus Hojlund netted the winning penalty.
Ten Hag accepted Antony was wrong but claimed he was provoked, saying: “That’s why, this was a reaction of that, you haven’t seen the provocation, only the reaction. But he should not do it.
“I have seen Harry Maguire straight after and others, we should acknowledge the performance of Coventry to come into that…and the comeback. Also see we are 70 minutes totally dominating the game by far and creating many chances.
“At 3-0 it must have been the game is closed but the return from their side was very good.”
The collapse added further intensity to the spotlight on Ten Hag’s position, and on Friday United announced that Jason Wilcox had left Southampton with immediate effect to become their new technical director.
Ten Hag said he was looking forward to working very closely with the former winger, adding: “We have to form a partnership, it’s very important. We are a little behind in the process so we have to catch up, so we will go and speed up the process.
“I met him yesterday for the first time, we had some talks. This week we will not have so much time but from Monday on we will go forward.
“Of course I know his profile, I know his methods in youth, a lot of experience there and then one year at Southampton. I know his background so I am looking forward to our partnership.”
United’s injury crisis continued at Wembley, with Alejandro Garnacho, Marcus Rashford, Scott McTominay and Bruno Fernandes all picking up problems.
McTominay and Rashford are both doubtful for Wednesday but Ten Hag expects Garnacho and Fernandes to be able to play.
PGMOL to allow Nottingham Forest to hear VAR audio of rejected penalty claims
Nottingham Forest will be given the opportunity to privately hear the VAR audio connected to three penalty claims in their match against Everton last Sunday.
Forest called on Monday for the audio between Stuart Attwell and on-field official Anthony Taylor to be released publicly.
Sources close to referees body Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) insist it has nothing to hide and will give the club the opportunity to hear the audio in private, as it would any other club making a similar request.
The PA news agency understands no decision has yet been taken on whether this audio would also feature in the next edition of ‘Match Officials Mic’d Up’, which will air next Tuesday evening.
The audio related to a wrongly disallowed Luis Diaz goal for Liverpool at Tottenham earlier this season was released publicly, but in that instance there had been a serious communication error so the matter was treated differently.
Forest have been contacted by PA regarding the offer to release the audio.
The club have risked Football Association and Premier League sanction over their extraordinary response to the three rejected penalty appeals.
The club said in a statement on Sunday they had “warned” PGMOL that VAR Stuart Attwell “was a Luton fan” but that PGMOL did not change the appointment.
The Premier League said it was “extremely disappointed” by the statement, adding it was “never appropriate to improperly question the integrity of match officials”.
The league said it was investigating the matter in relation to the league’s rules, with regulations B.15 and B.16 governing the requirement on clubs and their officials to behave with utmost good faith.
Forest went on to release a further statement on Monday evening calling for the rules around referees’ allegiances to be updated to account for “contextual rivalries in the league table”.
Referees do already declare allegiances and will not be assigned that team’s matches, or certain other fixtures such as those involving direct local rivals of that club. For instance, Michael Oliver has spoken in the past about he cannot referee Newcastle games because he is a fan.
Other factors that determine appointments include which teams an official’s immediate family members support, as well as performance and the number of times they have officiated a particular team’s matches.
PGMOL takes all of that into account and endeavours to make the best appointments possible when allocating six officials to each Premier League fixture from a pool of 70 to 75, while also fulfilling Championship refereeing appointments.
Ultimately, it has confidence in the impartiality and professionalism of its officials.
No club is believed to have ever questioned the process in the manner Forest have since the birth of the Premier League 32 years ago, and nor have the club raised any concerns in relation to the previous occasions when Attwell has been the VAR at their matches this season.
English officials are clearly well thought of by UEFA, with eight included in the list for Euro 2024 this summer.
Taylor will lead one of two English referee teams at Euro 2024, with Oliver leading the other. Attwell and David Coote have been named as VARs.
Three Forest staff – manager Nuno Espirito Santo, full-back Neco Williams and referee analyst Mark Clattenburg – have been asked by the FA for observations on the comments they made about the officiating at Goodison Park.
Championship run-in: Where the top four stand in race for automatic promotion
The battle for automatic promotion from the Sky Bet Championship continues to intensify as Leeds moved into the top-two with a nail-biting win over Middlesbrough on Monday.
Leaders Leicester sit just two points ahead of third-placed Ipswich and the Foxes take on Southampton tonight, where defeat for fourth-placed Saints would all but end their automatic hopes.
Here, the PA news agency takes a look at the remaining weeks of an increasingly tense Championship run-in.
Leicester (1st, played 43, 91 points, +42 goal difference)
Run-in: Southampton (h), Preston (a), Blackburn (h).
Once seemingly certain to return to the top flight after a single season in the second tier – Enzo Maresca’s side were 17 points clear of Leeds – Leicester have suffered a crisis of confidence just at the wrong time.
A 2-1 home defeat by Middlesbrough on February 17 launched a run of 10 league games culminating in a 1-0 reverse at Plymouth which saw them lose six times and collect just 10 of the 30 points available.
However, a 2-1 victory over play-off chasing West Brom took them back to the top of the table and with two of their last three fixtures at the King Power Stadium, they will hope they can make home advantage count.
Leeds (2nd, played 44, 90 points, +43 goal difference)
Run-in: QPR (a), Southampton (h).
As with Leicester, Leeds have suffered a wobble at the most inopportune moment.
A 2-1 defeat at Coventry on April 6 was their first in the league since the turn of the year and, having seen Sunderland leave Elland Road with a point three days later, Daniel Farke’s men lost on home soil for the first time this season last Saturday when Sammie Szmodics fired Blackburn to victory in West Yorkshire.
But they came out on the right end of a seven-goal thriller in Teesside on Monday, claiming a 4-3 win over Middlesbrough that Farke will hope can be a springboard for their final two fixtures.
Ipswich (3rd, played 43, 89 points, +32 goal difference)
Run-in: Hull (a), Coventry (a), Huddersfield (h).
Ipswich’s unlikely tilt at back-to-back promotions has hit the buffers in recent weeks after a remarkable run of nine wins in 10 Championship outings was brought to an end by derby rivals Norwich.
A 1-0 defeat at Carrow Road on April 6 has been followed by home draws with Watford and Middlesbrough and Town must rediscover the form which earned manager Kieran McKenna the accolade of Championship Manager of the Season on Sunday evening if they are to reach the top flight.
However, all three of their remaining opponents still have something to play for, with Hull and Coventry on the fringes of the play-off race and Huddersfield battling desperately to avoid the drop.
Southampton (played 43, 84 points, +29 goal difference)
Run-in: Leicester (a), Stoke (h), Leeds (a).
Southampton’s bad patch arrived in February, when they lost to Bristol City, Hull and Millwall either side of a 2-0 success at West Brom in the space of 12 days.
A 3-0 win over Preston a week ago was their third in succession but despite taking the lead at Cardiff on Saturday, the Bluebirds claimed a last-gasp victory and Saints are now six points adrift of the top two.
How they fare against Leicester may go a long way to deciding their fate, while a visit to Leeds on the final day of the season promises to be a must-watch.
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